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A synthetic seismicity model for the Middle America Trench

A novel iterative technique, based on the concept of fault segmentation and computed using 2D static dislocation theory, for building models of seismicity and fault interaction which are physically acceptable and geometrically and kinematically correct, is presented. The technique is applied in two steps to seismicity observed at the Middle America Trench. The first constructs generic models which randomly draw segment strengths and lengths from a 2D probability distribution. The second constructs predictive models in which segment lengths and strengths are adjusted to mimic the actual geography and timing of large historical earthquakes. Both types of models reproduce the statistics of seismicity over five units of magnitude and duplicate other aspects including foreshock and aftershock sequences, migration of foci, and the capacity to produce both characteristic and noncharacteristic earthquakes. Over a period of about 150 yr the complex interaction of fault segments and the nonlinear failure conditions conspire to transform an apparently deterministic model into a chaotic one.

Ward, Steven N.↗

Combined use of remote sensing and seismic observations to infer geologically recent crustal deformation, active faulting, and stress fields

Characteristic traits for earthquakes associated with strike-slip motion in Central California and the Salton Sea area, as revealed in ground based studies and LANDSAT imagery, were compared. The mapped lineaments are found to be oriented in several dominant directions. One direction is the same as the trend of the San Andreas fault. The other directions differ from area to area and may reflect the stresses of earlier geologic processes. The pattern of lineament orientations is significantly LANDSAT MSS data, SEASAT synthetic aperture radar data, and magnetic field data from the South Mountain area west of Gettysburg, Pennsylvania were registered to match each other in spatial position and merged. Pattern recognition techniques were applied to the composite data set to determine its utility in recognizing different rock types and structures in vegetated terrain around South Mountain. With the use of a texture algorithm to enhance geologic features, a classification of the entire area was made. A test of the correlation between SAR tone and texture, LANDSAT tone and texture, and magnetic field data revealed no tone or texture measures linking any two of the original data sets.

Alexander, S. S.↗

Leveling circuits and crustal movements

An investigation of further possible vertical crustal movements in the Western United States made with circuit microclosure analysis is presented. The San Andreas fault in Cal., the Nevada seismic zone in Nev., and the Sierra Nevada in Calif. were studied based on supposition that in areas undergoing crustal movement the misclosure for a particular circuit should have the smallest value when the circuit is formed from the most temporarily homogeneous survey data; it should have larger, predictable values when the circuit is closed with surveys conducted at other times. Leveling surveys along the San Andreas fault and the Nevada seismic zone are discussed, noting the possibility of regional tilting in the Great Basin between 1934 and 1955, and of elevation changes in the Northern Nevada Range using results of leveling surveys between Roseville, Cal. and Reno, Nev.

Chi, S. C.↗

A study of microseismicity in northern Baja California, Mexico

Five microearthquake instruments were operated for 2 months in 1974 in a small mobile array deployed at various sites near the Agua Blanca and San Miguel faults. An 80-km-long section of the San Miguel fault zone is presently active seismically, producing the vast majority of recorded earthquakes. Very low activity was recorded on the Agua Blanca fault. Events were also located near normal faults forming the eastern edge of the Sierra Juarez suggesting that these faults are active. Hypocenters on the San Miguel fault range in depth from 0 to 20 km although two-thirds are in the upper 10 km. A composite focal mechanism showing a mixture of right-lateral and dip slip, east side up, is similar to a solution obtained for the 1956 San Miguel earthquake which proved consistent with observed surface deformation.

Johnson, T. L.↗

Kinematics of a large-scale intraplate extending lithosphere: The Basin-Range

Upper lithospheric structure of the Cordilleran Basin Range (B-R) is characterised by an E-W symmetry of velocity layering. The crust is 25 km thick on its eastern active margin, thickening to 30 km within the central portion and thinning to approx. 25 km on the west. Pn velocities of 7.8 to 7.9 km/s characterize the upper mantle low velocity cushion, 7.4 km/s to 7.5 km/s, occurs at a depth of approx. 25 km in the eastern B-R and underlies the area of active extension. An upper-crustal low-velocity zone in the eastern B-R shows a marked P-wave velocity inversion of 7% at depths of 7 to 10 km also in the area of greatest extension. The seismic velocity models for this region of intraplate extension suggest major differences from that of a normal, thermally underformed continental lithosphere. Interpretations of seismic reflection data demonstrate the presence of extensive low-angle reflections in the upper-crust of the eastern B-R at depths from near-surface to 7 to 10 km. These reflections have been interpreted to represent low-angle normal fault detachments or reactivated thrusts. Seismic profiles across steeply-dipping normal faults in unconsolidated sediments show reflections from both planar to downward flatening (listric) faults that in most cases do not penetrate the low-angle detachments. These faults are interpreted as late Cenozoic and cataclastic mylonitic zones of shear displacement.

Smith, R. B.↗

Strainmeters and tiltmeters in geophysics

Several types of sensitive strainmeters and tiltmeters have been developed, and it is now becoming clear which geophysical applications are most suitable for these instruments. In general, strainmeters and tiltmeters are used for observing ground deformation at periods of minutes to days. Small-scale lateral inhomogeneities at the instrument sites distort signals by a few percent, although the effects of large structures can be calculated. In earth tide work these lateral inhomogeneities and unknown ocean loading signals prevent accurate values of the regional tide from being obtained. This limits tidal investigations to looking for temporal variations, possibly associated with pre-earthquake dilatancy, and spatial variations caused by gross elasticity contrasts in the local geological structure. Strainmeters and tiltmeters are well suited for observing long-period seismic waves, seismic slip events on faults and volcano tumescence, where small site-induced distortions in the measured signals are seldom important.

Goulty, N. R.↗

Two-dimensional Finite Element Modeling for Modeling Tectonic Stress and Strain

Techniques of finite element analysis in two dimensional plane strain were applied to problems of geophysics and tectonics. More specifically, the flexibility of the finite element method was employed to address problems involving geological complexity and fault interactions. The modeling of effective anisotropy in material elastic properties proved useful in describing the deformation of faulted crustal blocks. The applications of this modeling work to problems of actual tectonics in southern California was explored. Preliminary models show encouraging agreement with measured tectonic strain in this region, and modeling work was done to gain an understanding of the stress state in a locked fault region with future seismic potential.

Lyzenga, G. A.↗

GPS measurements of crustal deformation associated with the 22 April 1991, Valle de la Estrella , Costa Rica earthquake

Results are presented for analysis of Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements made at sites in Costa Rica in February and July 1991. Significant horizontal and vertical displacements relative to February positions were observed. Differences were found in GPS derived vertical and horizontal displacements as compared to other types of geodetic measurements of uplift in the coastal regions. A slip dislocation model which fits the GPS measured displacement was computed. Differences between these data sets and their associated models were investigated in light of unmodeled slip heterogeneity on the fault and post-seismic displacements.

Lundgren, Paul R.↗

Focal depths and fault plane solutions of earthquakes under the Tibetan plateau

Seismic data are used to place constraints on the focal depths and fault plane solutions of 16 crustal earthquakes beneath the highest parts of the Tibetan plateau. Synthetic seismograms were computed for large events from 1962 to 1976, and compared with the observed waveforms. All of the events studied are found to have occurred at depths less than 15 km and probably between 5 and 10 km, suggesting that the crust below 10-15 km is essentially aseismic, as in most of the Western United States. Fault-plane solutions show combinations of normal and strike slip faulting with T axes consistently oriented approximately east-west, supporting the inference that the upper crust of Tibet is actively extending in an east-west direction. In addition, solutions for two intermediate-depth events at depths of 90 and 85 km show primarily normal faulting with east-west T axes. Results show that brittle deformation occurs at shallow depths in the crust and in the uppermost mantle, but the lower crust seems to be aseismic.

Molnar, P.↗

Plate Margin Deformation and Active Tectonics Along the Northern Edge of the Yakutat Terrane in the Saint Elias Orogen, Alaska and Yukon, Canada

The northwest directed motion of the Pacific plate is accompanied by migration and collision of the Yakutat terrane into the cusp of southern Alaska. The nature and magnitude of accretion and translation on upper crustal faults and folds is poorly constrained, however, due to pervasive glaciation. In this study we used high-resolution topography, geodetic imaging, seismic, and geologic data to advance understanding of the transition from strike-slip motion on the Fairweather fault to plate margin deformation on the Bagley fault, which cuts through the upper plate of the collisional suture above the subduction megathrust. The Fairweather fault terminates by oblique-extensional splay faulting within a structural syntaxis, allowing rapid tectonic upwelling of rocks driven by thrust faulting and crustal contraction. Plate motion is partly transferred from the Fairweather to the Bagley fault, which extends 125 km farther west as a dextral shear zone that is partly reactivated by reverse faulting. The Bagley fault dips steeply through the upper plate to intersect the subduction megathrust at depth, forming a narrow fault-bounded crustal sliver in the obliquely convergent plate margin. Since . 20 Ma the Bagley fault has accommodated more than 50 km of dextral shearing and several kilometers of reverse motion along its southern flank during terrane accretion. The fault is considered capable of generating earthquakes because it is linked to faults that generated large historic earthquakes, suitably oriented for reactivation in the contemporary stress field, and locally marked by seismicity. The fault may generate earthquakes of Mw <= 7.5.

Bruhn, Ronald L.↗

Correlation of data on strain accumulation adjacent to the San Andreas Fault with available models

Theoretical and numerical studies of deformation on strike slip faults were performed and the results applied to geodetic observations performed in the vicinity of the San Andreas Fault in California. The initial efforts were devoted to an extensive series of finite element calculations of the deformation associated with cyclic displacements on a strike-slip fault. Measurements of strain accumulation adjacent to the San Andreas Fault indicate that the zone of strain accumulation extends only a few tens of kilometers away from the fault. There is a concern about the tendency to make geodetic observations along the line to the source. This technique has serious problems for strike slip faults since the vector velocity is also along the fault. Use of a series of stations lying perpendicular to the fault whose positions are measured relative to a reference station are suggested to correct the problem. The complexity of faulting adjacent to the San Andreas Fault indicated that the homogeneous elastic and viscoelastic approach to deformation had serious limitations. These limitation led to the proposal of an approach that assumes a fault is composed of a distribution of asperities and barriers on all scales. Thus, an earthquake on a fault is treated as a failure of a fractal tree. Work continued on the development of a fractal based model for deformation in the western United States. In order to better understand the distribution of seismicity on the San Andreas Fault system a fractal analog was developed. The fractal concept also provides a means of testing whether clustering in time or space is a scale-invariant process.

Turcotte, Donald L.↗

Low-angle normal faulting and isostatic response in the Gulf of Suez: Evidence from seismic interpretation and geometric reconstruction

Tectonic extension within continental crust creates a variety of major features best classed as extensional orogens. These features have come under increasing attention in recent years, with the welding of field observation and theoretical concepts. Most recent advances have come from the Basin and Range Province of the southwestern United States and from the North Sea. Application of these geometric and isostatic concepts, in combination with seismic interpretation, to the southern Gulf of Suez, an active extensional orogen, allows generation of detailed structural maps and geometrically balanced sections which suggest a regional structural model. Geometric models which should prove to be a valuable adjunct to numerical and thermal models for the rifting process are discussed.

Perry, S. K.↗

Faulting parameters derived from computer simulation of earthquakes

Seismic source parameters, average displacement, rupture length, and strain energy release are investigated by computer simulation using a coupled massive block model of the sliding along an active fault. Average displacements and energy release vary considerably with the degree of heterogeneity in the friction and elastic parameters used in the model. Strain energy release is determined primarily by the product of dynamic friction, rupture length, and average displacement. Interrelationships among the faulting parameters are consistent with theoretical arguments and experimental data. The variation in the frequency of occurrence of simulation events with strain energy release is different from the variation in the frequency of naturally occurring events with seismic energy.

Cohen, S. C.↗

Rapid Ice Mass Loss: Does It Have an Influence on Earthquake Occurrence in Southern Alaska?

The glaciers of southern Alaska are extensive, and many of them have undergone gigatons of ice wastage on time scales on the order of the seismic cycle. Since the ice loss occurs directly above a shallow main thrust zone associated with subduction of the Pacific-Yakutat plate beneath continental Alaska, the region between the Malaspina and Bering Glaciers is an excellent test site for evaluating the importance of recent ice wastage on earthquake faulting potential. We demonstrate the influence of cumulative glacial mass loss following the 1899 Yakataga earthquake (M=8.1) by using a two dimensional finite element model with a simple representation of ice fluctuations to calculate the incremental stresses and change in the fault stability margin (FSM) along the main thrust zone (MTZ) and on the surface. Along the MTZ, our results indicate a decrease in FSM between 1899 and the 1979 St. Elias earthquake (M=7.4) of 0.2 - 1.2 MPa over an 80 km region between the coast and the 1979 aftershock zone; at the surface, the estimated FSM was larger but more localized to the lower reaches of glacial ablation zones. The ice-induced stresses were large enough, in theory, to promote the occurrence of shallow thrust earthquakes. To empirically test the influence of short-term ice fluctuations on fault stability, we compared the seismic rate from a reference background time period (1988-1992) against other time periods (1993-2006) with variable ice or tectonic change characteristics. We found that the frequency of small tectonic events in the Icy Bay region increased in 2002-2006 relative to the background seismic rate. We hypothesize that this was due to a significant increase in the rate of ice wastage in 2002-2006 instead of the M=7.9, 2002 Denali earthquake, located more than 100km away.

Sauber, Jeanne M.↗

Geodynamics of crustal deformation and seismotectonic block movements in central Europe

Geological observations reveal the style of neotectonic near-surface stresses and deformations in central Europe. Seismic activity, focal depths and fault plane solutions of earthquakes indicate kinematic reactions within the crust. A crustal deformation model which may account for the Rhine graben systems and the associated seismotectonic block movements in Europe is presented. A computer aided tomography to gravity anomalies is used in determining the crustal stresses in central Europe. Tomographical interpretations of gravity data with respect to seismic stresses are discussed. Kinematics and dynamics are integrated to show that the measured regional stresses in central Europe are derivable from the convection generated traction on the boundary of the elastic spherical shell of the crust as inferred from satellite derived gravity data.

Liu, H. S.↗

ERTS Applications in earthquake research and mineral exploration in California

Examples that ERTS imagery can be effectively utilized to identify, locate, and map faults which show geomorphic evidence of geologically recent breakage are presented. Several important faults not previously known have been identified. By plotting epicenters of historic earthquakes in parts of California, Sonora, Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada, we found that areas known for historic seismicity are often characterized by abundant evidence of recent fault and crustal movements. There are many examples of seismically quiet areas where outstanding evidence of recent fault movements is observed. One application is clear: ERTS-1 imagery could be effectively utilized to delineate areas susceptible to earthquake recurrence which, on the basis of seismic data alone, may be misleadingly considered safe. ERTS data can also be utilized in planning new sites in the geophysical network of fault movement monitoring and strain and tilt measurements.

Abdel-Gawad, M.↗