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At least 73 records · Page 4

Aviation and programmatic analyses; Volume 1, Task 1: Aviation data base development and application

A method was developed for using the NASA aviation data base and computer programs in conjunction with the GE management analysis and projection service to perform simple and complex economic analysis for planning, forecasting, and evaluating OAST programs. Capabilities of the system are discussed along with procedures for making basic data tabulations, updates and entries. The system is applied in an agricultural aviation study in order to assess its value for actual utility in the OAST working environment.

Source record↗

Evaluation of glass model precipitation forecasts for North America during SOP-1

A study has been made of the accuracy of the GLAS fourth order forecast model's precipitation forecasts over North America during the first Special Observing Period (SOP-1) of FGGE and of the impact of the FGGE special observing systems on these forecasts. Fourteen 120 h predictions were generated using the coarse 4 deg latitude by 5 deg longitude version of the GLAS model from both the FGGE and NOSAT assimilation cycles. These forecasts were then verified against a detailed set of precipitation observations. Separate verifications were performed for precipitation accumulations or = .01 in., or = .1 in., and or = 1 in. occuring in 6, 12 and 24 time periods. In addition, three different methods of verification were applied. In the first method, model precipitation forecasts are verified against the greatest precipitation amount observed within a 4 deg latitude by 5 deg longitude gridbox centered on each gridpoint. For the prediction at a gridpoint to be verified only one observation within the gridbox is required. In the second method, a weighted mean of the closest observations to the gridpoint is used, provided that at least two observations on opposite sides of a gridpoint are available. For the third method, the model precipitation forecasts were interpolated to the observation locations.

Atlas, R.↗

Evaluation of Computer Aided Vortex Forecast System

Several countries, including the United States. Canada, Germany, England and Russia, are in the process of trying to develop some sort of computer-aided system that will guide controllers at airports on the hazard posed by lift-generated vortices that trail behind subsonic transport aircraft. The emphasis on this particular subject has come about because the hazard posed by wake vortices is currently the only reason why aircraft are spaced at 3 to 6 miles apart during landing and takeoff rather than something like 2 miles. It is well known that under certain weather conditions, aircraft spacings can be safely reduced to as little as the desired 2 miles. In an effort to perhaps capitalize on such a possibility, a combined FAA and NASA program is currently underway in the United States to develop such a system. Needless to say, the problems associated with anticipating the required separation distances when weather conditions are involved is very difficult. Similarly, Canada has a corresponding program to develop a vortex forecast system of their own.

Rossow, Vernon J.↗

An Analysis of Peak Wind Speed Data from Collocated Mechanical and Ultrasonic Anemometers

This study focuses on a comparison of peak wind speeds reported by mechanical and ultrasonic anemometers at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center (CCAFS/KSC) on the east central coast of Florida and Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) on the central coast of California. The legacy mechanical wind instruments on CCAFS/KSC and VAFB weather towers are being changed from propeller-and-vane (CCAFS/KSC) and cup-and-vane (VAFB) sensors to ultrasonic sensors under the Range Standardization and Automation (RSA) program. The wind tower networks on KSC/CCAFS and VAFB have 41 and 27 towers, respectively. Launch Weather Officers, forecasters, and Range Safety analysts at both locations need to understand the performance of the new wind sensors for a myriad of reasons that include weather warnings, watches, advisories, special ground processing operations, launch pad exposure forecasts, user Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) forecasts and evaluations, and toxic dispersion support. The Legacy sensors measure wind speed and direction mechanically. The ultrasonic RSA sensors have no moving parts. Ultrasonic sensors were originally developed to measure very light winds (Lewis and Dover 2004). The technology has evolved and now ultrasonic sensors provide reliable wind data over a broad range of wind speeds. However, because ultrasonic sensors respond more quickly than mechanical sensors to rapid fluctuations in speed, characteristic of gusty wind conditions, comparisons of data from the two sensor types have shown differences in the statistics of peak wind speeds (Lewis and Dover 2004). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and the 30 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to compare data from RSA and Legacy sensors to determine if there are significant differences in peak wind speed information from the two systems.

Short, David A.↗

A Comparison of Wind Speed Data from Mechanical and Ultrasonic Anemometers

This study compared the performance of mechanical and ultrasonic anemometers at the Eastern Range (ER; Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on Florida's Atlantic coast) and the Western Range (WR; Vandenberg Air Force Base on California's Pacific coast). Launch Weather Officers, forecasters, and Range Safety analysts need to understand the performance of wind sensors at the ER and WR for weather warnings, watches, advisories, special ground processing operations, launch pad exposure forecasts, user Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) forecasts and evaluations, and toxic dispersion support. The current ER and WR weather tower wind instruments are being changed from the current propeller-and-vane (ER) and cup-and-vane (WR) sensors to ultrasonic sensors through the Range Standardization and Automation (RSA) program. The differences between mechanical and ultrasonic techniques have been found to cause differences in the statistics of peak wind speed in previous studies. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and the 30th Weather Squadron (30 WS) requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to compare data between RSA and current sensors to determine if there are significant differences. Approximately 3 weeks of Legacy and RSA wind data from each range were used in the study, archived during May and June 2005. The ER data spanned the full diurnal cycle, while the WR data was confined to 1000-1600 local time. The sample of 1-minute data from numerous levels on 5 different towers on each range totaled more than 500,000 minutes of data (482,979 minutes of data after quality control). The 10 towers were instrumented at several levels, ranging from 12 ft to 492 ft above ground level. The RSA sensors were collocated at the same vertical levels as the present sensors and typically within 15 ft horizontally of each another. Data from a total of 53 RSA ultrasonic sensors, collocated with present sensors were compared. The 1-minute average wind speed/direction and the 1-second peak wind speed/direction were compared.

Short, D.↗

Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center: Transitioning Satellite Data to Operations

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center located at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center has been conducting testbed activities aimed at transitioning satellite products to National Weather Service operational end users for the last 10 years. SPoRT is a NASA/NOAA funded project that has set the bar for transition of products to operational end users through a paradigm of understanding forecast challenges and forecaster needs, displaying products in end users decision support systems, actively assessing the operational impact of these products, and improving products based on forecaster feedback. Aiming for quality partnerships rather than a large quantity of data users, SPoRT has become a community leader in training operational forecasters on the use of up-and-coming satellite data through the use of legacy instruments and proxy data. Traditionally, SPoRT has supplied satellite imagery and products from NASA instruments such as the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). However, recently, SPoRT has been funded by the GOES-R and Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Proving Grounds to accelerate the transition of selected imagery and products to help improve forecaster awareness of upcoming operational data from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), and Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). This presentation provides background on the SPoRT Center, the SPoRT paradigm, and some example products that SPoRT is excited to work with forecasters to evaluate.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

An Analysis of Peak Wind Speed Data from Collocated Mechanical and Ultrasonic Anemometers

This study compared peak wind speeds reported by mechanical and ultrasonic anemometers at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center (CCAFS/KSC) on the east central coast of Florida and Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) on the central coast of California. Launch Weather Officers, forecasters, and Range Safety analysts need to understand the performance of wind sensors at CCAFS/KSC and VAFB for weather warnings, watches, advisories, special ground processing operations, launch pad exposure forecasts, user Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) forecasts and evaluations, and toxic dispersion support. The legacy CCAFS/KSC and VAFB weather tower wind instruments are being changed from propeller-and-vane (CCAFS/KSC) and cup-and-vane (VAFB) sensors to ultrasonic sensors under the Range Standardization and Automation (RSA) program. Mechanical and ultrasonic wind measuring techniques are known to cause differences in the statistics of peak wind speed as shown in previous studies. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and the 30th Weather Squadron (30 WS) requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to compare data between the RSA ultrasonic and legacy mechanical sensors to determine if there are significant differences. Note that the instruments were sited outdoors under naturally varying conditions and that this comparison was not designed to verify either technology. Approximately 3 weeks of mechanical and ultrasonic wind data from each range from May and June 2005 were used in this study. The CCAFS/KSC data spanned the full diurnal cycle, while the VAFB data were confined to 1000-1600 local time. The sample of 1-minute data from numerous levels on five different towers on each range totaled more than 500,000 minutes of data (482,979 minutes of data after quality control). The ten towers were instrumented at several levels, ranging from 12 ft to 492 ft above ground level. The ultrasonic sensors were collocated at the same vertical levels as the mechanical sensors and typically within 15 ft horizontally of each another. Data from a total of 53 RSA ultrasonic sensors, collocated with mechanical sensors were compared. The 1- minute average wind speed/direction and the 1-second peak wind speed/direction were compared.

Short, David A.↗

Estimation of the Ocean Skin Temperature using the NASA GEOS Atmospheric Data Assimilation System

This report documents the status of the development of a sea surface temperature (SST) analysis for the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Version-5 atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). Its implementation is part of the steps being taken toward the development of an integrated earth system analysis. Currently, GEOS-ADAS SST is a bulk ocean temperature (from ocean boundary conditions), and is almost identical to the skin sea surface temperature. Here we describe changes to the atmosphere-ocean interface layer of the GEOS-atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to include near surface diurnal warming and cool-skin effects. We also added SST relevant Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) observations to the GEOS-ADAS observing system. We provide a detailed description of our analysis of these observations, along with the modifications to the interface between the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model, gridpoint statistical interpolation-based atmospheric analysis and the community radiative transfer model. Our experiments (with and without these changes) show improved assimilation of satellite radiance observations. We obtained a closer fit to withheld, in-situ buoys measuring near-surface SST. Evaluation of forecast skill scores corroborate improvements seen in the observation fits. Along with a discussion of our results, we also include directions for future work.

AGCM↗

Characterizing Agricultural Impacts of Recent Large-Scale US Droughts and Changing Technology and Management

Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.

Climate extremes; Drought impacts; Agriculture; Se↗

Operational maize yield forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa using Earth observation data and machine learning

Food insecurity continues to grow in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In 2019, chronically malnourished people numbered nearly 240 million, or 20% of the population in SSA. Globally, numerous efforts have been made to anticipate potential droughts, crop conditions, and food shortages to foster improved food insecurity early warning and risk management. To support this goal, we develop an Earth Observation (EO) and machine-learning-based operational, subnational maize yield forecast system and evaluate its out-of-sample forecast skills during the growing seasons for Kenya, Somalia, Malawi, and Burkina Faso. In general, forecast skills improve substantially during the vegetative growth period (VP) and gradually during the reproductive development period (RP). Thus, mid-season assessment can provide effective early warning months before harvest. Skillful forecasts (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) > 0.6 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) < 20%) appear approximately two dekads after the VP; for example, they appear in May in Kenya and Somalia, January in Malawi, and July in Burkina Faso.

Donghoon Lee↗

Operational Evaluation of NASA SPoRT Lightning Safety Applications for Impact Based Decision Support Services

The NWS Office in Huntsville is tasked with monitoring and predicting the threat for lightning within its County Warning Area. These impact-based decision support services (IDSS) are provided routinely for aviation operations, irregularly for large-scale, outdoor events, and can have varying safety requirements, such as proximity to location and duration. Lightning monitoring and prediction can require the rapid synthesis of a plethora of data, so products that make this process more efficient and effective are sought by the operational community. The Huntsville NWS Office benefits from close collaboration with the NASA SPoRT Center, which is developing several products to address these operational challenges in concentrated R2O/O2R efforts. One example of this is the StopLight product, which uses Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) flash extent density (FED) to provide an easy-to-interpret visual aid of lightning occurring within the last 30 minutes. The StopLight product shows both the age and location of the last lightning flash within each GLM pixel, which can be particularly useful for IDSS with determining when to resume activities or operations that have been shut down due to lightning. This presentation highlights results of collaboration between NASA SPoRT and NWS Huntsville, including testing of the Stoplight product, and additional experimental products in development. A brief summary of the lightning products are provided while the main focus will discuss product evaluation and forecaster perspective during real-time weather watch activities to support aviation operations and events where IDSS was necessary.

Kristopher White↗

Development of Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP3)

Robust prediction of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events is among the key priorities of the space weather community. In the framework of NASA’s Early Stage Innovation Program, we develop the Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP3: https://sun.njit.edu/SEP3), which hosts web applications that allow the users to retrieve the database records. In particular, SEP3 lists the API examples to query each data source potentially important for the SEP prediction. The Portal has a search page for browsing the events from the most widely used catalogs (https://sun.njit.edu/SEP3/search.php) and a dedicated space to share the most recent achievements of the team. In addition, we have added a CDAW SEP catalog and a LASCO/SOHO CME catalog and introduced the possibility of displaying the properties of the connected events (parental solar flares and CMEs for SEPs) on the search page. The interactive widget has the capability to display GOES soft X-ray and proton flux time series from different satellites with the GOES flare records on top of them. The data portal has been used to evaluate the forecasts of the solar proton events based on the statistical properties of the GOES soft X-ray and proton fluxes and investigate machine-learning approaches to the SEP prediction.

SMD↗

Development of Solar Flare and Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP 3 )

Solar activity is a primary factor determining the state of the Earth’s space environment, geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances, and radiation hazards. In the current state of knowledge, machine learning (ML) methods provide essential tools for processing data, investigating relationships among various physical properties and characteristics, uncovering hidden connections, and predicting hazardous solar events. The primary difficulty in developing and applying modern machine-learning tools in heliophysics is that the essential data are scattered among over a hundred data repositories developed by instrument teams of space missions and ground-based observatories. In addition, statistical and ML methods require long time series of homogeneous measurements. To facilitate ML-ready data preparation and access, we have developed an interactive database of solar flares integrating the most essential datasets (https://solarflare.njit.edu/). The database performs an initial data processing and is automatically updated. In addition, we are developing the Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP3, https://sun.njit.edu/SEP3), which hosts web applications that allow users to retrieve the database records. The Portal has a search page for browsing the events from the most widely used catalogs and a dedicated space to share the most recent achievements of the team. The interactive widget can display soft X-ray and proton flux time series from GOES satellites and the flare records. The data portal has been used to evaluate the forecasts of solar proton events and investigate machine-learning approaches to SEP prediction.

SMD↗

Assimilation of Soil Moisture Observations Over Land Improves Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of a tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. Dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land, whereas very wet conditions may lead to a prolonged maintenance of its intensity. While this relationship is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tbs significantly improves modeled land surface states. Here we evaluate: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP Tb observations. We find that in the analysis with SMAP assimilation, the TC has a better-defined, more aligned vertical structure over land relative to the control run; moreover, the analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, better matches the observed TC size. We further find significant reductions in the forecast intensity error and the forecast along-track error, measured against observations. The largest error reductions occur at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the land with its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability at this timescale. An investigation of the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation revealed that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions and an increased latent heat flux in the SMAP analysis, which results in a TC with higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the control analysis.

Jana Kolassa↗

Spaceborne Lidar Retrievals of PM2.5 for Air Quality Studies and Applications

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) substantially contributes to air pollution and negatively affects human health. While many studies have investigated the use of passive column-integrated aerosol optical depth to infer surface PM2.5, the use of lidar observations for air quality characterization is not nearly as extensive. Lidar measurements are critical, however, due to the vertical aerosol information they provide, including near the surface. In this presentation, we first provide an overview of various lidar-based approaches for estimating PM2.5 concentrations and then discuss how lidar measurements can assist other air quality applications. For example, estimates of PM2.5 have been obtained in a physics-based approach through CALIOP near-surface aerosol extinction retrievals, assumptions on the mass extinction efficiency, and incorporating other parameters (an aerosol hygroscopic growth factor and PM2.5/PM10 ratio). Application of this algorithm over the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2006 to 2018 yielded larger PM2.5 values over the eastern and western CONUS (~10-15 μg/m³) and lower PM2.5 levels in the central CONUS (~5 μg/m³). These spatial patterns were similar to those from gridded PM2.5 concentrations obtained through in situ measurements at ground stations operated by the US Environmental Protection Agency. In another approach, the Cloud Aerosol Transport System (CATS) lidar was used with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model in a 1D ensemble-based variational technique to obtain PM2.5 over the US and Europe, and the spatial patterns of the CATS/GEOS based PM2.5 concentrations generally captured those from surface stations (with corresponding hourly EPA PM2.5 vs CATS PM2.5 statistics of R=0.4 and bias=1.5 μg/m³). In our recent work, as part of the Models, In situ, and Remote sensing of Aerosols (MIRA) Working Group, we have applied both the CALIOP and CATS/GEOS based approaches over the highly polluted country of India during the post-monsoon season (September-October 2016). We derived elevated levels of two-month mean PM2.5 (~100 μg/m³) in northern India, especially near New Delhi. These high PM2.5 concentrations in the Indo-Gangetic plain are driven in large part from the seasonal burning of crop residue and meteorological conditions typical at this time of the year, such as low wind speeds and a shallow boundary layer. While the satellite-derived PM2.5 moderately replicates (R = ~0.7-0.9) the spatial variability in the two-month mean of surface in situ PM2.5 from monitoring sites operated by the Central and State Pollution Control Boards, we show results from specific scenes for which there are large deviations between the satellite-derived PM2.5 and in situ measurements. Other current work on this topic focuses on developing PM2.5 estimates using airborne high spectral resolution lidar measurements through machine learning regression algorithms and involves several parameters (e.g., aerosol extinction, color ratio, lidar ratio). Application of this method over major metropolitan areas in the US and Asia have resulted in high correlations (R = 0.93) with surface measurements. This airborne lidar approach can be adapted to spaceborne lidar measurements, and all three of these approaches can be applied to ESA’s EarthCARE Atmospheric Lidar instrument, setting the stage for the future Cloud Aerosol Lidar for Global Scale Observations of the Ocean-Land Atmosphere System (CALIGOLA) mission. Ultimately, beyond estimates of PM2.5, the aerosol vertical distribution from lidars can benefit studies involving passive sensor approaches for PM2.5 proxies (including from geostationary satellites), wildfire smoke plume injection heights, volcanic emissions (e.g., ash height retrievals), and aerosol/air quality model assimilation, evaluation, and forecasts.

Travis D Toth↗

Evaluation of Radiation Belt Space Weather Forecasts for Internal Charging Analyses

A variety of static electron radiation belt models, space weather prediction tools, and energetic electron datasets are used by spacecraft designers and operations support personnel as internal charging code inputs to evaluate electrostatic discharge risks in space systems due to exposure to relativistic electron environments. Evaluating the environment inputs is often accomplished by comparing whether the data set or forecast tool reliability predicts measured electron flux (or fluence over a given period) for some chosen period. While this technique is useful as a model metric, it does not provide the information necessary to evaluate whether short term deviances of the predicted flux is important in the charging evaluations. In this paper, we use a 1-D internal charging model to compute electric fields generated in insulating materials as a function of time when exposed to relativistic electrons in the Earth's magnetosphere. The resulting fields are assumed to represent the "true" electric fields and are compared with electric field values computed from relativistic electron environments derived from a variety of space environment and forecast tools. Deviances in predicted fields compared to the "true" fields which depend on insulator charging time constants will be evaluated as a potential metric for determining the importance of predicted and measured relativistic electron flux deviations over a range of time scales.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

Status of the NASA GMAO Observing System Simulation Experiment

An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is a pure modeling study used when actual observations are too expensive or difficult to obtain. OSSEs are valuable tools for determining the potential impact of new observing systems on numerical weather forecasts and for evaluation of data assimilation systems (DAS). An OSSE has been developed at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO, Errico et al 2013). The GMAO OSSE uses a 13-month integration of the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts 2005 operational model at T511/L91 resolution for the Nature Run (NR). Synthetic observations have been updated so that they are based on real observations during the summer of 2013. The emulated observation types include AMSU-A, MHS, IASI, AIRS, and HIRS4 radiance data, GPS-RO, and conventional types including aircraft, rawinsonde, profiler, surface, and satellite winds. The synthetic satellite wind observations are colocated with the NR cloud fields, and the rawinsondes are advected during ascent using the NR wind fields. Data counts for the synthetic observations are matched as closely as possible to real data counts, as shown in Figure 2. Errors are added to the synthetic observations to emulate representativeness and instrument errors. The synthetic errors are calibrated so that the statistics of observation innovation and analysis increments in the OSSE are similar to the same statistics for assimilation of real observations, in an iterative method described by Errico et al (2013). The standard deviations of observation minus forecast (xo-H(xb)) are compared for the OSSE and real data in Figure 3. The synthetic errors include both random, uncorrelated errors, and an additional correlated error component for some observational types. Vertically correlated errors are included for conventional sounding data and GPS-RO, and channel correlated errors are introduced to AIRS and IASI (Figure 4). HIRS, AMSU-A, and MHS have a component of horizontally correlated error. The forecast model used by the GMAO OSSE is the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DAS. The model version has been updated to v. 5.13.3, corresponding to the current operational model. Forecasts are run on a cube-sphere grid with 180 points along each edge of the cube (approximately 0.5 degree horizontal resolution) with 72 vertical levels. The DAS is cycled at 6-hour intervals, with 240 hour forecasts launched daily at 0000 UTC. Evaluation of the forecasting skill for July and August is currently underway. Prior versions of the GMAO OSSE have been found to have greater forecasting skill than real world forecasts. It is anticipated that similar forecast skill will be found in the updated OSSE.

OSSE↗

Ensemble Canonical Correlation Prediction of Seasonal Precipitation Over the United States: Raising the Bar for Dynamical Model Forecasts

This paper presents preliminary results of an ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) prediction scheme developed at the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center for determining the potential predictability of regional precipitation, and for climate downscaling studies. The scheme is tested on seasonal hindcasts of anomalous precipitation over the continental United States using global sea surface temperature (SST) for 1951-2000. To maximize the forecast skill derived from SST, the world ocean is divided into non-overlapping sectors. The canonical SST modes for each sector are used as the predictor for the ensemble hindcasts. Results show that the ECC yields a substantial (10-25%) increase in prediction skills for all the regions of the US in every season compared to traditional CCA prediction schemes. For the boreal winter, the tropical Pacific contributes the largest potential predictability to precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern regions, while the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible to the enhanced forecast skills in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Plains and Ohio Valley. Most importantly, the ECC increases skill for summertime precipitation prediction and substantially reduces the spring predictability barrier over all the regions of the US continent. Besides SST, the ECC is designed with the flexibility to include any number of predictor fields, such as soil moisture, snow cover and additional local observations. The enhanced ECC forecast skill provides a new benchmark for evaluating dynamical model forecasts.

Lau, William K. M.↗