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DOE OSTI2025

Carbon cycling across ecosystem succession in a north temperate forest: Controls and management implications

Despite decades of progress, much remains unknown about successional trajectories of carbon (C) cycling in north temperate forests. Drivers and mechanisms of these changes, including the role of different types of disturbances, are particularly elusive. To address this gap, we synthesized decades of data from experimental chronosequences and long-term monitoring at a well-studied, regionally representative field site in northern Michigan, USA. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of changes in above- and belowground ecosystem components over two centuries of succession, links temporal dynamics in C pools and fluxes with underlying drivers, and offers several conceptual insights to the field of forest ecology. Our first advance shows how temporal dynamics in some ecosystem components are consistent across severe disturbances that reset succession and partial disturbances that slightly modify it: both of these disturbance types increase soil N availability, alter fungal community composition, and alter growth and competitive interactions between short-lived pioneer and longer-lived tree taxa. Further, these changes in turn affect soil C stocks, respiratory emissions, and other belowground processes. Second, we show that some other ecosystem components have effects on C cycling that are not consistent over the course of succession. For example, canopy structure does not influence C uptake early in succession but becomes important as stands develop, and the importance of individual structural properties changes over the course of two centuries of stand development. Third, we show that in recent decades, climate change is masking or overriding the influence of community composition on C uptake, while respiratory emissions are sensitive to both climatic and compositional change. In synthesis, we emphasize that time is not a driver of C cycling; it is a dimension within which ecosystem drivers such as canopy structure, tree and microbial community composition change. Changes in those drivers, not in forest age, are what control forest C trajectories, and those changes can happen quickly or slowly, through natural processes or deliberate intervention. Stemming from this view and a whole-ecosystem perspective on forest succession, we offer management applications from this work and assess its broader relevance to understanding long-term change in other north temperate forest ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Interactions Between Climate and Species Drive Future Forest Carbon and Water Balances

Global change is altering forest carbon and water balances; however, the extent to which tree species shape ecosystem‐scale responses to climate, particularly in biodiverse forests, remains unclear. To address this, we simulated the effects of an envelope of future climate conditions on watershed carbon and water balances and quantified the contributions of tree species based on their xylem anatomy. We accomplished this by incorporating species‐level transpiration calculations into a landscape‐scale ecosystem process model. Our revised model linked the effects of forest succession, species composition, and climate change on water and carbon. Calibration of forest water fluxes using sap flux measurements and catchment water balances captured variability in species transpiration and interannual ET in biodiverse, humid temperate forest catchments in the southern Blue Ridge Mountains, USA. Across wet and dry future climate projections, ET increased, and streamflow and net carbon uptake decreased, particularly under a scenario of increasing drought. Despite accounting for just 30% of current biomass, diffuse‐porous tree species were the main driver of carbon and water flux responses now and in the future, thus intensifying the increase in ET and decline in streamflow. As diffuse‐porous biomass continues to increase, these forests will be increasingly sensitive to drought, amplifying losses of carbon sequestration and freshwater delivery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Abiotic influences on continuous conifer forest structure across a subalpine watershed

Understanding the abiotic drivers of high-elevation forest physiognomy is essential for forecasting how mountain ecosystems will respond to emerging environmental pressures. Most prior studies of these relationships have relied on small samples of the full landscape, resulting in limited power to detect dominant covariates and their interactions. Here we report the first evaluation of abiotic influences on a complement of accurate, wall-to-wall estimates of conifer forest structure and composition at the watershed scale. In a subalpine conifer domain in the Colorado Rocky Mountains (USA), we developed a novel method for deriving stand structure metrics from waveform LiDAR data, which showed high fidelity with field inventory. We quantified the relationships between structural and compositional metrics and climate, topographic, edaphic, and geologic factors. Our results showed that peak snow water equivalent (SWE), snow disappearance rate, and elevation explained most of the variation in forest structure. The highest stand density, basal area, maximum canopy height, and quadratic mean diameter occurred in sites with SWE around one standard deviation below mean, but with long snow residence times. Stand density decreased linearly with elevation, while other metrics peaked between 3000 m and 3200 m. Substrate properties had weaker influence. Continuous mapping of through-canopy forest structure enabled our novel findings of the dominant role of snowpack in explaining structural and compositional variation, and of elevation thresholds. Our reproducible approach facilitates assessment of forest-topoclimate relationships in other conifer-dominated landscapes and improves understanding of the baseline patterns controlling forest structure, which is needed for predicting long-term ecological change.

forest ecology↗

DOE OSTI2025

AmeriFlux US-MEF Manitou Experimental Forest

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-MEF Manitou Experimental Forest. Site Description - This site was established on an existing 30-m tower structure at the Forest Service's Manitou Experimental Forest, Colorado. Manitou Experimental Forest is located approximately 38 km northwest of Colorado Springs, within the Pike National Forest. The tower was constructed and used between 2008 and 2013 by NCAR for the BEACHON project and has line power and internet connections. The tower is located in approximately 12 km^2 of ponderosa pine forest and savannah with a land use history of thinning and prescribed burning, though these disturbances have not occurred for many years. The tower is situated in a broad, flat valley that drains to the north. Early research at the site was focused mainly on grazing, while more recently it has turned broadly to the ecology and management of ponderosa pine ecosystems. In 2002, the Hayman Fire burned approximately 56,000 ha to the west and northwest of the tower location.

Frank, John [US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Res↗

DOE OSTI2026

Generating multiple benefits from forests by producing value-added products: Lessons from the Pacific Northwestern US

This paper asks what conditions are needed to counteract a declining forest industry. The mobilization of supply chains for new value-added forest products and services can be supported by programs designed to simultaneously achieve multiple goals related to health, climate, and rural economic development. But several challenges are identified that underscore the need to stack benefits and incentives to achieve muti-sectoral goals. Based on a case study in Washington state, we find opportunities and constraints for sourcing forest products are determined by the local and regional conditions such as availability of working forests and their residues, socioeconomic conditions, workforce availability, transportation options, and perceptions about social license of the new industry. Key recommendations are the need for (1) a consistent demand and resilient supply chain for the new product; (2) a stable, supportive policy and assessment framework; (3) timely, transparent, and trusted monitoring and reporting of benefits and costs; (4) fostering engagement and buy-in from stakeholders; (5) a context-specific evaluation of opportunities and constraints; and (6) agreement on the goals of sustainable forestry. A diversity of products and markets builds a more resilient forest-based economy by mitigating impacts of disruptions in any individual market, adding value to biomass, increasing employment, and reducing forest risks to fire, insects, and disease.

Bioenergy↗

DOE OSTI2025

Short-term experimental flooding impacts soil biogeochemistry but not aboveground vegetation in a coastal forest

Rising sea levels and intensifying storms increase flooding pressure on coastal forests, triggering tree mortality, ecosystem transitions, and changes to the coastal carbon cycle. However, the mechanisms that drive coastal forest mortality remain elusive due to the complex interplay between belowground and aboveground processes during flooding disturbances and limitations of observations typically reported in coastal forest mortality studies. We used an ecosystem-scale manipulation to simulate hurricane-level flooding of a coastal forest and explore the individual and interactive impacts of inundation and salinity. Monitoring real-time soil conditions and tree physiological responses, we observed consistent impacts on soil biogeochemistry aligned with belowground drivers of tree mortality, but no consistent responses in aboveground vegetation immediately following flooding. Our findings provide empirically based insight into the earliest stages of a hypothesized forest mortality spiral and offer critical benchmarks for predicting coastal forest resilience in the face of accelerating climate change.

coastal forests↗

DOE OSTI2025

Validation of the DESI 2024 Lyα forest BAO analysis using synthetic datasets

The first year of data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) contains the largest set of Lyman-α (Lyα) forest spectra ever observed. This data, collected in the DESI Data Release 1 (DR1) sample, has been used to measure the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) feature at redshift z = 2.33. In this work, we use a set of 150 synthetic realizations of DESI DR1 to validate the DESI 2024 Lyα forest BAO measurement presented in [1]. The synthetic data sets are based on Gaussian random fields using the log-normal approximation. We produce realistic synthetic DESI spectra that include all major contaminants affecting the Lyα forest. The synthetic data sets span a redshift range 1.8 < z < 3.8, and are analyzed using the same framework and pipeline used for the DESI 2024 Lyα forest BAO measurement. To measure BAO, we use both the Lyα auto-correlation and its cross-correlation with quasar positions. We use the mean of correlation functions from the set of DESI DR1 realizations to show that our model is able to recover unbiased measurements of the BAO position. We also fit each mock individually and study the population of BAO fits in order to validate BAO uncertainties and test our method for estimating the covariance matrix of the Lyα forest correlation functions. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results and identify the needs for the next generation of Lyα forest synthetic data sets, with the top priority being to simulate the effect of BAO broadening due to non-linear evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Storms Are an Important Driver of Change in Tropical Forests

Tropical forest dynamics and composition have changed over recent decades, but the proximate drivers of these changes remain unclear. Investigations into these trends have focused on increasing drought stress, CO 2 , temperature, and fires, whereas convective storms are generally overlooked. We argue that existing literature provides clear support for the importance of storms as drivers of forest change. We reanalyze the largest plot-based study of tropical forest carbon dynamics to show that lightning frequency—an indicator of storm activity—strongly predicts forest carbon storage and residence time, and its inclusion improves model fit and weakens evidence for the effects of high temperatures. Convective storm activity has increased 5%–25% per decade over the past half century. Extrapolating from historic trends, we estimate that storms likely contribute ca. 50% of the reported increases in biomass mortality across Amazonia, with all realistic combinations of assumptions indicating a possible range of 12%–118%. Spatial variation in storm activity shows weak relationships with drought, demonstrating that forests can experience high drought stress, high storm activity, or both. Accordingly, we hypothesise that convective storms are among the most important drivers of tropical forest change, and as such, they require significant research investment to avoid misguiding science, policy, and management.

biomass carbon↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Simulations of Forest Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery in Puerto Rico by ELM-FATES Using Field Measurements

In the past three decades, Puerto Rico (PR) experienced five hurricanes that met or exceeded category three, and they caused severe forest structural damage and elevated tree mortality. To improve our mechanistic understanding of hurricane impacts on tropical forests and assess hurricane-affected forest dynamics in Earth system models, we use in situ forest measurements at the Bisley Experimental Watersheds in Northeast PR to evaluate the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES). The observations show that before Hurricane Hugo, 77.3% of the aboveground biomass (AGB) is from the shade-tolerant plant function type (PFT). The Hugo-induced mortality rates are over ~50%, and they induce a ~39% AGB reduction, which recovers to a level like the pre-Hugo condition in 2014, following a second, lower intensity hurricane, Georges. We perform numerical experiments that simulate damage from Hugo and Georges on the forests, including defoliation, sapwood and structural biomass damage, and hurricane-induced mortality. ELM-FATES can reasonably represent coexistence between the two PFTs–light-demanding and shade-tolerant–for both the pre-Hugo and post-Hugo conditions. The model represents a reasonable size distribution of mid-and large-sized trees although it underestimates AGB, likely due to the overestimated nonhurricane mortality. ELM-FATES temporarily stimulated leaf biomass and diameter increment after Georges, an effect that should be tested with observations of future hurricane defoliation events. This research indicates that addressing model-data mismatches in tree mortality and understory dynamics are essential to simulation of more extreme hurricane effects under climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling the Cosmological Lyman-𝛼 Forest at the Field Level

The distribution of absorption lines in the spectra of distant quasars, called the Lyman-𝛼 (Ly-𝛼) forest, is a unique probe of cosmology and the intergalactic medium at high redshifts and small scales. The statistical power of ongoing redshift surveys demands precise theoretical tools to model the Ly-𝛼 forest. We address this challenge by developing an analytic, perturbative forward model to predict the Ly-𝛼 forest at the field level for a given set of cosmological initial conditions. Our model shows a remarkable performance when compared with the Sherwood hydrodynamic simulations: it reproduces the Ly-𝛼 forest flux power spectrum, its cross-correlation with dark matter halos, and the one-point probability distribution function of both fields at the percent level down to scales of a few Mpc. Our work provides crucial tools that bridge analytic modeling on large scales with simulations on small scales, enabling field-level inference from Ly-𝛼 forest data and simulation-based priors for cosmological analyses. Furthermore, this is especially timely for realizing the full scientific potential of the Ly-𝛼 forest measurements by the dark energy spectroscopic instrument.

Cosmological parameters↗

DOE OSTI2024

Different model assumptions about plant hydraulics and photosynthetic temperature acclimation yield diverging implications for tropical forest gross primary production under warming

Tropical forest photosynthesis can decline at high temperatures due to (1) biochemical responses to increasing temperature and (2) stomatal responses to increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD), which is associated with increasing temperature. It is challenging to disentangle the influence of these two mechanisms on photosynthesis in observations, because temperature and VPD are tightly correlated in tropical forests. Nonetheless, quantifying the relative strength of these two mechanisms is essential for understanding how tropical gross primary production (GPP) will respond to climate change, because increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration may partially offset VPD-driven stomatal responses, but is not expected to mitigate the effects of temperature-driven biochemical responses. We used two terrestrial biosphere models to quantify how physiological process assumptions (photosynthetic temperature acclimation and plant hydraulic stress) and functional traits (e.g., maximum xylem conductivity) influence the relative strength of modeled temperature versus VPD effects on light-saturated GPP at an Amazonian forest site, a seasonally dry tropical forest site, and an experimental tropical forest mesocosm. By simulating idealized climate change scenarios, we quantified the divergence in GPP predictions under model configurations with stronger VPD effects compared with stronger direct temperature effects. Assumptions consistent with stronger direct temperature effects resulted in larger GPP declines under warming, while assumptions consistent with stronger VPD effects resulted in more resilient GPP under warming. Furthermore, our findings underscore the importance of quantifying the role of direct temperature and indirect VPD effects for projecting the resilience of tropical forests in the future, and demonstrate that the relative strength of temperature versus VPD effects in models is highly sensitive to plant functional parameters and structural assumptions about photosynthetic temperature acclimation and plant hydraulics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Calcium is associated with specific soil organic carbon decomposition products at Blodgett Forest Research Center, Georgetown, California as analysed with scanning transmission X-ray microscopy carbon near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy

This data is from the paper calcium is associated with specific soil organic carbon decomposition products, published in SOIL. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-11-381-2025, 2025.This file contains CSVs with spectral data and bulk soil data and there is no specific program required to open this data. The data includes Scanning transmission X-ray microscopy carbon near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy. data from the measurement of samples from the Whole-soil Warming project, run by the Belowground Biogeochemistry team at Blodgett Forest Research Center, Georgetown, California run by the University of California, Berkeley. It also includes bulk soil chemical properties. The University of California's Blodgett Forest Research Station (Forest) is situated in the Sierra Nevada foothills (1370 m a.s.l.) near Georgetown, California. The samples were collected from here: 38.912013, -120.661469, https://maps.app.goo.gl/291bCJ1zVqUhgktz6. The Forest soils were characterised as Alfisols, which are equivalent to Dystric Cambisols (IUSS Working Group WRB, 2015), and formed in granitic parent materials, in a temperate climate, under thinned, mixed-coniferous forest (Fig. S3; Gaudinski et al., 2009). With these analyses we aimed to answer the question, is calcium associated with a specific type of organic matter enriched in aromatic and phenolic carbon at the microscale in samples from Blodgett Forest Research Center? and how does this specific type of carbon respond to experiments targetted at removing and adding calcium to the soils, specifically cation exchange and incubation after calcium addition? Abstract from the paper can be found below: Calcium (Ca) may contribute to the preservation of soil organic carbon (SOC) in more ecosystems than previously thought. Here we provide evidence that Ca is co-located with SOC compounds that are enriched in aromatic and phenolic groups, across different acidic soil-types and locations with different ecosystem properties, differing in terms of climate, parent material, soil type, and vegetation. In turn, this co-localised fraction of Ca-SOC is removed through cation-exchange, and the association is then only re-established during decomposition in the presence of Ca (Ca addition incubation). Thus, highlighting a causative link between decomposition and the co-location of Ca with a characteristic fraction of SOC. Decomposition increases the relative proportion of negatively charged functional groups, which can increase the propensity for the association between SOC and Ca, and in turn, this association inhibits dissolved organic carbon export or further decomposition. We propose that this mechanism could be driven by Ca hotspots on the microscale shifting local decomposition processes and thereby explaining the colocation of Ca with SOC of a specific composition across different acidic soil environments. Incorporating this biogeochemical process into Earth System Models could improve our understanding, predictions, and management of carbon dynamics in soils, and account for their response to Ca-rich amendments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F BR-Sa1 Santarem-Km67-Primary Forest

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site BR-Sa1 Santarem-Km67-Primary Forest. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site BR-Sa1 Santarem-Km67-Primary Forest produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The LBA Tapajos KM67 Mature Forest site is a closed-canopy terra firme (upland) forest, located in the FLONA Tapajos, or National Forest, a 450,000 ha government conservation unit in the Brazilian Amazon. Bounded by the Tapajos River in the west and highway BR-163 to the east, the tower is located on a flat plateau (or planalto) that extends up to 40 km to the north, south, and east. The forest at the tower site is classified as primary or "old-growth"" predominantly by its uneven age distribution, emergent trees, numerous epiphytes and abundant large logs. In January 2006 and again in November 2023, falling trees hit the tower guy wires destroying the tower and halting measurements. In each case, the tower was restored and measurements resumed, first in August of 2008 (enabled by a Partnership for International Research and Education, or PIRE, grant from the U.S. National Science Foundation) and again in June 2024.

Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia [University of Arizona, Cu↗

DOE OSTI2024

FORESTR: Finding, Organizing, Representing, Explaining, Summarizing, and Thinning Random forests

Random forests have become popular models used for data driven predictions. As a result, random forests are currently used or being considered for high-consequence mission applications in national security, such as the prediction of yield from optical signals and malware detection. While random forests may provide accurate predictions, the complexity of the algorithm causes a lack of interpretability. Random forests are an ensemble of regression or decision trees. Individual regression and decision trees are interpretable, but ensembles are inherently difficult to interpret due to the compilation of many models. We aim to increase the interpretability of random forests by finding patterns in the ensemble of trees that can be used to “thin” (or remove) trees. As a starting point, in this report, we develop a new distance metric for quantifying the similarity between trees based on their topologies (i.e., shapes). We base the metric on a novel distance metric for graphs that is a proper mathematical distance, is invariant to transformations, has registration between graphs, and computes topological evolutions between graphs. We use the tree distance metric to compute tree statistics such as a “mean tree” and to identify clusters of trees. We apply the developed methodology to a toy dataset and a mission relevant product inspection dataset to demonstrate how the metric can provide insight into random forests. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of the approach and ideas for future research into how the metric could be used as a thinning tool to develop less complex models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Harvest legacies and climate change interact to shape forest structure and biomass through time

Forest structural change driven by climate trends has been observed worldwide and is expected to increase in the future. Management of forest structure has been an important tool for mitigating the impacts of climate change but forest structure may shift independently of management goals as it interacts with climate change. Here, we investigated the long-term impacts of harvest-based management strategies on structure and resistance to climate-induced biomass loss using a process-based ecosystem model for a midwestern USA hardwood forest. We identified aboveground biomass loss events and compared the cumulative number of these events following a five-year period of active management under four management strategies and two climate change scenarios. Management legacy had the clearest impact on climate-driven biomass loss over the mid-term (∼25 years) with the shelterwood scenario experiencing no loss events during this period. However, by the end of the century legacy effects faded and climate change severity became the driver of differences as greater warming scenarios experienced twice the loss events, and end-of-century loss events were 3–10 times more frequent than mid-century events. We found that while structure was distinct among harvest scenarios through the mid-century, differences were negligible by the end-of-century; identical to when management correlated with loss event frequency. Here, we found that loss events were preceded by a drop in precipitation two years prior, while no specific forest structure preceded a loss event. However, the structures preceding a biomass loss event were distinct across different legacies, implying additional influences of past management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tree drought physiology: critical research questions and strategies for mitigating climate change effects on forests

Droughts of increasing severity and frequency are a primary cause of forest mortality associated with climate change. Yet, fundamental knowledge gaps regarding the complex physiology of trees limit the development of more effective management strategies to mitigate drought effects on forests. Here, in this work, we highlight some of the basic research needed to better understand tree drought physiology and how new technologies and interdisciplinary approaches can be used to address them. Our discussion focuses on how trees change wood development to mitigate water stress, hormonal responses to drought, genetic variation underlying adaptive drought phenotypes, how trees ‘remember’ prior stress exposure, and how symbiotic soil microbes affect drought response. Next, we identify opportunities for using research findings to enhance or develop new strategies for managing drought effects on forests, ranging from matching genotypes to environments, to enhancing seedling resilience through nursery treatments, to landscape-scale monitoring and predictions. We conclude with a discussion of the need for co-producing research with land managers and extending research to forests in critical ecological regions beyond the temperate zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Validation of the DESI 2024 Lyman alpha forest BAL masking strategy

Broad absorption line quasars (BALs) exhibit blueshifted absorption relative to a number of their prominent broad emission features. These absorption features can contribute to quasar redshift errors and add absorption to the Lyman-α (Lyα) forest that is unrelated to large-scale structure. We present a detailed analysis of the impact of BALs on the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) results with the Lyα forest from the first year of data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). The baseline strategy for the first year analysis is to mask all pixels associated with all BAL absorption features that fall within the wavelength region used to measure the forest. We explore a range of alternate masking strategies and demonstrate that these changes have minimal impact on the BAO measurements with both DESI data and synthetic data. This includes when we mask the BAL features associated with emission lines outside of the forest region to minimize their contribution to redshift errors. We identify differences in the properties of BALs in the synthetic datasets relative to the observational data, as well as use the synthetic observations to characterize the completeness of the BAL identification algorithm, and demonstrate that incompleteness and differences in the BALs between real and synthetic data also do not impact the BAO results for the Lyα forest.

Lyman alpha forest↗

DOE OSTI2025

Demography, dynamics and data: building confidence for simulating changes in the world's forests

Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) are advanced tools for simulating forest responses to climate and land-use changes, and are essential for projecting carbon cycling and large-scale forest management strategies. Despite their increasing incorporation into Earth System Models, VDMs differ in their demographic assumptions, with no prior quantitative comparison of their performance. We benchmarked nine VDMs against observational data from boreal, temperate and tropical sites, assessing their accuracy in predicting tree growth, carbon turnover, biomass stocks and size distributions. Models were simulated under consistent climate conditions with postdisturbance recovery monitored for at least 420 yr. Postdisturbance carbon recovery trajectories showed significant variability while remaining within observational ranges. Initial regrowth rates varied substantially (0.03-0.60, 0.18-0.70 and 0.35-1.10 kgCm-2 yr-1 for boreal, temperate and tropical sites, respectively), influenced by each model's initial forest state. Models captured mature forest carbon content but showed compensating effects between overestimated growth and underestimated mortality rates. This first multi-model benchmarking identifies growth and mortality rates as critical calibration targets and highlights the need to refine postdisturbance establishment conditions for model development. We outline specific benchmarking variables needed to improve predictions of forest responses to environmental change.

demographic vegetation model benchmarking↗