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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Clumped isotope constraints on changes in latest Pleistocene hydroclimate in the northwestern Great Basin: Lake Surprise, California

Abstract During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the Great Basin in the southwestern United States was covered by numerous extensive closed-basin lakes, in stark contrast with the predominately arid climate observed today. This transition from lakes in the Late Pleistocene to modern aridity implies large changes in the regional water balance. Whether these changes were driven by increased precipitation rates due to changes in atmospheric dynamics, decreased evaporation rates resulting from temperature depression and summer insolation changes, or some combination of the two remains uncertain. The factors contributing to these large-scale changes in hydroclimate are critical to resolve, given that this region is poised to undergo future anthropogenic-forced climate changes with large uncertainties in model simulations for the 21st century. Furthermore, there are ambiguous constraints on the magnitude and even the sign of changes in key hydroclimate variables between the Last Glacial Maximum and the present day in both proxy reconstructions and climate model analyses of the region. Here we report thermodynamically derived estimates of changes in temperature, precipitation, and evaporation rates, as well as the isotopic composition of lake water, using clumped isotope data from an ancient lake in the northwestern Great Basin, Lake Surprise (California). Compared to modern climate, mean annual air temperature at Lake Surprise was 4.7 °C lower during the Last Glacial Maximum, with decreased evaporation rates and similar precipitation rates to modern. During the mid-deglacial period, the growth of Lake Surprise implied that the lake hydrologic budget briefly departed from steady state. Our reconstructions indicate that this growth took place rapidly, while the subsequent lake regression took place over several thousand years. Using models for precipitation and evaporation constrained from clumped isotope results, we determine that the disappearance of Lake Surprise coincided with a moderate increase in lake temperature, along with increasing evaporation rates outpacing increasing precipitation rates. Concomitant analysis of proxy data and climate model simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum are used to provide a robust means to understand past climate change, and by extension, predict how current hydroclimates may respond to expected future climate forcings. We suggest that an expansion of this analysis to more basins across a larger spatial scale could provide valuable insight into proposed climate forcings, and aid in climate model process depiction. Ultimately, our analysis highlights the importance of temperature-driven evaporation as a mechanism for lake growth and retreat in this region.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2023

A thousand-genome panel retraces the global spread and adaptation of a major fungal crop pathogen

Human activity impacts the evolutionary trajectories of many species worldwide. Global trade of agricultural goods contributes to the dispersal of pathogens reshaping their genetic makeup and providing opportunities for virulence gains. Understanding how pathogens surmount control strategies and cope with new climates is crucial to predicting the future impact of crop pathogens. Here, we address this by assembling a global thousand-genome panel of Zymoseptoria tritici, a major fungal pathogen of wheat reported in all production areas worldwide. We identify the global invasion routes and ongoing genetic exchange of the pathogen among wheat-growing regions. We find that the global expansion was accompanied by increased activity of transposable elements and weakened genomic defenses. Finally, we find significant standing variation for adaptation to new climates encountered during the global spread. Our work shows how large population genomic panels enable deep insights into the evolutionary trajectory of a major crop pathogen.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future

Abstract Understanding and predicting “droughts” in wind and solar power availability can help the electric grid operator planning and operation toward deep renewable penetration. We assess climate models' ability to simulate these droughts at different horizontal resolutions, ∼100 and ∼25 km, over Western North America and Texas. We find that these power droughts are associated with the high/low pressure systems. The simulated wind and solar power variabilities and their corresponding droughts during historical periods are more sensitive to the model bias than to the model resolution. Future climate simulations reveal varied future change of these droughts across different regions. Although model resolution does not affect the simulation of historical droughts, it does impact the simulated future changes. This suggests that regional response to future warming can vary considerably in high‐ and low‐resolution models. These insights have important implications for adapting power system planning and operations to the changing climate.

Liu, Xue [Department of Oceanography Texas A&amp,M↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reciprocal transplants reveal asymmetric local adaptation of Himalayan Rhododendron approaching elevational range limit

Abstract As plant species expand their upper limits of distribution under current warming, some retain both traditional climate space and biotic environment while others encounter novel conditions. The latter is the case for Rhododendron campanulatum , a woody shrub that grows both above and below treeline at our study site in the Eastern Himalayas where a very conspicuous, stable treeline was defined by a nearly contiguous canopy of tall Abies spectabilis trees, many of which are over a century old. Prior work showed that treeline had remained static in this region while R. campanulatum expanded its elevational range limit. We tested local adaptation of R. campanulatum by performing reciprocal transplants between the species' current elevational range limit (4023 m above sea level [asl]) and just above treeline (3876 m asl). Contrary to expectation, the coldest temperatures of late winter and early mid‐spring were experienced by plants at the lower elevation: R. campanulatum at species' limit (upper site) were covered by snow for a longer period (40 more days) and escaped the coldest temperatures suffered by conspecifics at treeline (lower site). The harsher spring conditions at treeline likely explain why leaves were smaller at treeline (15.3 cm 2 ) than at species limit (21.3 cm 2 ). Contrary to results from equivalent studies in other regions, survival was reduced more by downslope than by upslope movement, again potentially due to extreme cold temperatures observed at treeline in spring. Upslope transplantation had no effect on mortality, but mortality of species limit saplings transplanted downslope was three times higher than that of residents at both sites. A general expectation is that locals should survive better than foreign transplants, but survival of locals and immigrants at our species limit site was identical. However, those species limit saplings that survived the transplant to treeline grew faster than both locals at treeline and the transplants at species limit. Overall, we found asymmetric adaptation: Compared with treeline saplings, those at species limit (147 m above treeline) were more tolerant of extremes in the growing season but less tolerant of extremes in winter and early mid‐spring, displaying local adaptation in a more complex manner than simply home advantage, and complicating predictions about impacts of future regional climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Non-structural carbohydrates mediate seasonal water stress across Amazon forests

Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) are major substrates for plant metabolism and have been implicated in mediating drought-induced tree mortality. Despite their significance, NSC dynamics in tropical forests remain little studied. We present leaf and branch NSC data for 82 Amazon canopy tree species in six sites spanning a broad precipitation gradient. During the wet season, total NSC (NSC T ) concentrations in both organs were remarkably similar across communities. However, NSC T and its soluble sugar (SS) and starch components varied much more across sites during the dry season. Notably, the proportion of leaf NSC T in the form of SS (SS:NSC T ) increased greatly in the dry season in almost all species in the driest sites, implying an important role of SS in mediating water stress in these sites. This adjustment of leaf NSC balance was not observed in tree species less-adapted to water deficit, even under exceptionally dry conditions. Thus, leaf carbon metabolism may help to explain floristic sorting across water availability gradients in Amazonia and enable better prediction of forest responses to future climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermal acclimation of plant photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration in a northern peatland

Peatlands contain one-third of global soil carbon (C), but the responses of peatland ecosystems to long-term warming are not well understood. Here, we pursue an emergent understanding of warming effects on ecosystem C fluxes at peatlands by constraining a process-oriented model, the terrestrial ECOsystem model, with observational data from a long-term warming experiment at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments site. Model-based assessments show that ecosystem-level photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration exhibited significant thermal acclimation, with temperature sensitivities being linearly decreased with warming. Using the thermal-acclimated parameter values, simulated gross primary production, net primary production, and plant autotrophic respiration (R a ), were all lower than those simulated with non-thermal acclimated parameter values. In contrast, ecosystem respiration simulated with thermal acclimated parameter values was higher than that simulated with non-thermal acclimated parameter values. Net ecosystem CO 2 exchange was much higher after constraining model parameters with observational data from the warming treatments, releasing C at a rate of 28.3 g C m -2 yr -1 °C -1 . Our data-model integration study suggests that peatlands are likely to release more C than previously estimated. Earth system models may overestimate C uptake by peatlands under warming if physiological thermal acclimation of plants is not incorporated. Thus, it is critical to consider the long-term physiological thermal acclimation of plants in the models to better predict global C dynamics under future climate and their feedback to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulating environmentally-sensitive tree recruitment in vegetation demographic models

Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) endeavor to predict how global forests will respond to climate change. This requires simulating which trees, if any, are able to recruit under changing environmental conditions. We present a new recruitment scheme for VDMs in which functional-type-specific recruitment rates are sensitive to light, soil moisture and the productivity of reproductive trees. We evaluate the scheme by predicting tree recruitment for four tropical tree functional types under varying meteorology and canopy structure at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We compare predictions to those of a current VDM, quantitative observations and ecological expectations. We find that the scheme improves the magnitude and rank order of recruitment rates among functional types and captures recruitment limitations in response to variable understory light, soil moisture and precipitation regimes. Furthermore, our results indicate that adopting this framework will improve VDM capacity to predict functional-type-specific tree recruitment in response to climate change, thereby improving predictions of future forest distribution, composition and function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ventenata dubia projected to expand in the western United States despite future novel conditions

Abstract Distributions of both native and invasive species are expected to shift under future climate. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to explore future habitats, but sources of uncertainty including novel climate conditions may reduce the reliability of future projections. We explore the potential spread of the invasive annual grass ventenata ( Ventenata dubia ) in the western United States under both current and future climate scenarios using boosted regression tree models and 30 global climate models (GCMs). We quantify novel climate conditions, prediction variability arising from both the SDMs and GCMs, and the agreement among GCMs. Results demonstrate that currently suitable habitat is concentrated inside the invaded range of the northwest, but substantial habitat exists outside the invaded range in the Southern Rockies and southwestern US mountains. Future suitability projections vary greatly among GCMs, but GCMs commonly projected decreased suitability in the invaded range and increased suitability along higher elevations of interior mountainous areas. Climate novelty did not appear to undermine the prediction reliability in many cases where the climate–species relationship was fully represented by the occurrence data. GCM‐derived variability resulting from variation in future cool season precipitation and temperature seasonality was greatest in the Rocky Mountains. SDM‐derived variability was higher in currently suitable habitat, and few GCMs projections agreed that these areas would contain future suitable habitat. However, while prediction variability was high, many GCM projections agreed that parts of the Rocky, Wasatch, and Uinta Mountains would contain highly suitable habitat in the future. As disturbances in the interior mountains occur in coming decades, reducing some natural barriers to invasion, land managers, and conservationists will need to monitor for ventenata in post‐disturbance environments. Changes to invasion potential may not play out for several decades, but results related to current potential may have applications for early detection and rapid response planning.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Ecosystem as Super-Organ/ism, Revisited: Scaling Hydraulics to Forests under Climate Change

Synopsis Classic debates in community ecology focused on the complexities of considering an ecosystem as a super-organ or organism. New consideration of such perspectives could clarify mechanisms underlying the dynamics of forest carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake and water vapor loss, important for predicting and managing the future of Earth’s ecosystems and climate system. Here, we provide a rubric for considering ecosystem traits as aggregated, systemic, or emergent, i.e., representing the ecosystem as an aggregate of its individuals or as a metaphorical or literal super-organ or organism. We review recent approaches to scaling-up plant water relations (hydraulics) concepts developed for organs and organisms to enable and interpret measurements at ecosystem-level. We focus on three community-scale versions of water relations traits that have potential to provide mechanistic insight into climate change responses of forest CO2 and H2O gas exchange and productivity: leaf water potential (Ψcanopy), pressure volume curves (eco-PV), and hydraulic conductance (Keco). These analyses can reveal additional ecosystem-scale parameters analogous to those typically quantified for leaves or plants (e.g., wilting point and hydraulic vulnerability) that may act as thresholds in forest responses to drought, including growth cessation, mortality, and flammability. We unite these concepts in a novel framework to predict Ψcanopy and its approaching of critical thresholds during drought, using measurements of Keco and eco-PV curves. We thus delineate how the extension of water relations concepts from organ- and organism-scales can reveal the hydraulic constraints on the interaction of vegetation and climate and provide new mechanistic understanding and prediction of forest water use and productivity.

Zoology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand

Levels of fire activity and severity that are unprecedented in the instrumental record have recently been observed in forested regions around the world. Using a large sample of daily fire events and hourly climate data, here we show that fire activity in all global forest biomes responds strongly and predictably to exceedance of thresholds in atmospheric water demand, as measured by maximum daily vapour pressure deficit. The climatology of vapour pressure deficit can therefore be reliably used to predict forest fire risk under projected future climates. We find that climate change is projected to lead to widespread increases in risk, with at least 30 additional days above critical thresholds for fire activity in forest biomes on every continent by 2100 under rising emissions scenarios. Escalating forest fire risk threatens catastrophic carbon losses in the Amazon and major population health impacts from wildfire smoke in south Asia and east Africa.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dryness controls temperature-optimized gross primary productivity across vegetation types

Temperature response of gross primary productivity (GPP) is a well-known property of ecosystem, but GPP at the optimum temperature (GPP_T opt ) has not been fully discussed. Our understanding of how GPP_T opt responds to warming and water availability is highly limited. Here, in this study, we analyzed data at 326 globally distributed eddy covariance sites (79°N-37°S), to identify controlling factors of GPP_T opt . Although GPP_T opt was significantly influenced by soil moisture, global solar radiation, mean annual temperature, and vapor pressure deficit in a non-linear pattern (R 2 = 0.47), the direction and magnitude of these climate variables’ effects on GPP_T opt depend on the dryness index (DI), a ratio of potential evapotranspiration to precipitation. The spatial pattern showed that soil moisture did not affect GPP_T opt across energy-limited sites with DI < 1 while dominated GPP_T opt across water-limited sites with DI >1. The temporal pattern showed that GPP_T opt was lowered by warming or low precipitation in water-limited sites while energy-limited sites tended to maintain a stable GPP_T opt regardless of changes in air temperature. Vegetation types in humid climates tended to have higher GPP_T opt and were more likely to benefit from a warmer climate since it was not restricted by water conditions. This study highlights that the response of GPP_T opt to global warming depends on the dryness conditions, which explains the nonlinear control of water and temperature over GPP_T opt . Our finding is essential to realistic prediction of terrestrial carbon uptake under future climate and vegetation conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Analytic Formula for Entraining CAPE in Midlatitude Storm Environments

Abstract This article introduces an analytic formula for entraining convective available potential energy (ECAPE) with an entrainment rate that is determined directly from an environmental sounding, rather than prescribed by the formula user. Entrainment is connected to the background environment using an eddy diffusivity approximation for lateral mixing, updraft geometry assumptions, and mass continuity. These approximations result in a direct correspondence between the storm-relative flow and the updraft radius and an inverse scaling between the updraft radius squared and entrainment rate. The aforementioned concepts, combined with the assumption of adiabatic conservation of moist static energy, yield an explicit analytic equation for ECAPE that depends entirely on state variables in an atmospheric profile and a few constant parameters with values that are established in past literature. Using a simplified Bernoulli-like equation, the ECAPE formula is modified to account for updraft enhancement via kinetic energy extracted from the cloud’s background environment. CAPE and ECAPE can be viewed as predictors of the maximum vertical velocity w max in an updraft. Hence, these formulas are evaluated using w max from past numerical modeling studies. Both of the new formulas improve predictions of w max substantially over commonly used diagnostic parameters, including undiluted CAPE and ECAPE with a constant prescribed entrainment rate. The formula that incorporates environmental kinetic energy contribution to the updraft correctly predicts instances of exceedance of by w max , and provides a conceptual explanation for why such exceedance is rare among past simulations. These formulas are potentially useful in nowcasting and forecasting thunderstorms and as thunderstorm proxies in climate change studies. Significance Statement Substantial mixing occurs between the upward-moving air currents in thunderstorms (updrafts) and the surrounding comparatively dry environmental air, through a process called entrainment. Entrainment controls thunderstorm intensity via its diluting effect on the buoyancy of air within updrafts. A challenge to representing entrainment in forecasting and predictions of the intensity of updrafts in future climates is to determine how much entrainment will occur in a given thunderstorm environment without a computationally expensive high-resolution simulation. To address this gap, this article derives a new formula that computes entrainment from the properties of a single environmental profile. This formula is shown to predict updraft vertical velocity more accurately than past diagnostics, and can be used in forecasting and climate prediction to improve predictions of thunderstorm behavior and impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Drought legacies mediated by trait trade‐offs in soil microbiomes

Abstract Soil microbiomes play a key role in driving biogeochemical cycles of the Earth system. As drought frequency and intensity increase due to climate change, soil microbes and the processes they control will be impacted. Even after a drought ends, microbiomes and other systems take time to recover and may display a memory of previous climate conditions. Still, the mechanisms involved in these legacy effects remain unclear, making it difficult to predict climate and biogeochemical rates in the future. Here, we used a trait‐based microbiome model (DEMENTpy) to implement trade‐off‐mediated mechanisms that may lead to drought legacy effects on litter decomposition. Trade‐offs were assumed to follow the Y‐A‐S framework that defines three primary life‐history strategies of microorganisms: high growth Yield, resource Acquisition, and Stress tolerance. We represented cellular trade‐offs between osmolytes required for drought tolerance and investment in enzymes involved in litter decomposition. Simulations were run under varying levels of drought severity and dispersal. With high levels of dispersal, no legacy effects were predicted by DEMENTpy following drought. With limited dispersal, severe drought resulted in a persistent legacy of altered community‐level traits and reduced litter decomposition. Moderate drought resulted in a transient legacy that disappeared after two years, consistent with recent empirical observations in Southern California ecosystems. These results imply that greater movement along the trade‐off between enzyme investment and osmolyte production resulted in stronger legacy effects. More generally, factors that shift the position of a microbiome in YAS space may alter the legacy outcome following drought. Our trait‐based modeling study motivates additional empirical measurements to quantify YAS traits and trade‐offs that are needed to make accurate predictions of soil microbiome resilience and functioning. Also, our study illustrates an emerging approach for representing trait trade‐offs in microbiomes and vegetation that dictate ecosystem responses to drought and other environmental perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Market expectations of a warming climate

In this paper, we compare prices of financial derivatives whose payouts are based on future weather outcomes to CMIP5 climate model predictions as well as observed weather station data across eight cities in the US from 2001 through 2020. Derivative prices respond both to short-term weather forecasts for the next two weeks and longer-term warming trends. We show that the long-term trends in derivative prices are comparable to station-level data and climate model output. The one exception is February in the northeastern US, where financial markets price in a polar vortex-induced cooling effect, a recent scientific finding that was not present in the older CMIP5 climate output. When looking at the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in trends, futures prices are more aligned with climate model output than observed weather station trends, suggesting that market participants closely align their expectations with scientific projections rather than recent observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Empirical relationships between environmental factors and soil organic carbon produce comparable prediction accuracy as the Machine Learning

Accurate representation of environmental controllers of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Earth System Model (ESM) land models could reduce uncertainties in future carbon-climate feedback projections. Using empirical relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks to evaluate land models can help modelers understand prediction biases beyond what can be achieved with the observed SOC stocks alone. In this study, we used 31 observed environmental factors, field SOC observations (n = 6,213) from the continental US, and two Machine Learning approaches [Random Forest (RF) and Generalized Additive Modeling (GAM)] to (1) select important environmental predictors of SOC stocks, (2) derive empirical relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks, and (3) use the derived relationships to predict SOC stocks and compare the prediction accuracy of simpler model developed with the machine learning predictions. Out of the 31 environmental factors we investigated, 12 were identified as important predictors of SOC stocks by the RF approach. In contrast, the GAM approach identified six (of those 12) environmental factors as important controllers of SOC stocks: potential evapotranspiration, normalized difference vegetation index, soil drainage condition, precipitation, elevation, and net primary productivity. The GAM approach showed minimal SOC predictive importance of the remaining six environmental factors identified by the RF approach. Our derived empirical relations produced comparable prediction accuracy as the GAM and RF approach using only a subset of environmental factors. The empirical relationships we derived using the GAM approach can serve as important benchmarks to evaluate environmental control representations of SOC stocks in ESMs, which could reduce uncertainty in predicting future carbon-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Soil incubation methods lead to large differences in inferred methane production temperature sensitivity

Abstract Quantifying the temperature sensitivity of methane (CH 4 ) production is crucial for predicting how wetland ecosystems will respond to climate warming. Typically, the temperature sensitivity (often quantified as a Q 10 value) is derived from laboratory incubation studies and then used in biogeochemical models. However, studies report wide variation in incubation-inferred Q 10 values, with a large portion of this variation remaining unexplained. Here we applied observations in a thawing permafrost peatland (Stordalen Mire) and a well-tested process-rich model ( ecosys ) to interpret incubation observations and investigate controls on inferred CH 4 production temperature sensitivity. We developed a field-storage-incubation modeling approach to mimic the full incubation sequence, including field sampling at a particular time in the growing season, refrigerated storage, and laboratory incubation, followed by model evaluation. We found that CH 4 production rates during incubation are regulated by substrate availability and active microbial biomass of key microbial functional groups, which are affected by soil storage duration and temperature. Seasonal variation in substrate availability and active microbial biomass of key microbial functional groups led to strong time-of-sampling impacts on CH 4 production. CH 4 production is higher with less perturbation post-sampling, i.e. shorter storage duration and lower storage temperature. We found a wide range of inferred Q 10 values (1.2–3.5), which we attribute to incubation temperatures, incubation duration, storage duration, and sampling time. We also show that Q 10 values of CH 4 production are controlled by interacting biological, biochemical, and physical processes, which cause the inferred Q 10 values to differ substantially from those of the component processes. Terrestrial ecosystem models that use a constant Q 10 value to represent temperature responses may therefore predict biased soil carbon cycling under future climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Abstract Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold‐adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Whole-Ecosystem Warming Increases Plant-Available Nitrogen and Phosphorus in an Ombrotrophic Bog

Warming is expected to increase the net release of carbon from peatland soils, contributing to future warming. This positive feedback may be moderated by the response of peatland vegetation to rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] or to increased soil nutrient availability. We asked whether a gradient of whole-ecosystem warming (from + 0 °C to + 9 °C) would increase plant-available nitrogen and phosphorus in an ombrotrophic bog in northern Minnesota, USA, and whether elevated [CO 2 ] would modify the nutrient response. We tracked changes in plant-available nutrients across space and through time and in comparison with other nutrient pools, and assessed whether nutrient warming responses were captured by a point version of the land-surface model, ELM-SPRUCE. We found that warming exponentially increased plant-available ammonium and phosphate, but that nutrient dynamics were unaffected by elevated [CO 2 ]. The warming response increased by an order of magnitude between the first and fourth year of the experimental manipulation, perhaps because of dramatic mortality of Sphagnum mosses in the surface peat of the warmest treatments. However, neither the magnitude nor the temporal dynamics of the responses were captured by ELM-SPRUCE. Here, relative increases in plant-available ammonium and phosphate with warming were similar, but the response varied across raised hummocks and depressed hollows and with peat depth. Plant-available nutrient dynamics were only loosely correlated with inorganic and organic porewater nutrients, likely representing different processes. Future predictions of peatland nutrient availability under climate change scenarios must account for dynamic changes in nutrient acquisition by plants and microbes, as well as microtopography and peat depth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗