Geomagnetic disturbance intensity dependence on the universal timing of the storm peak
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R. M. Katus↗
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Observations of vertical winds and the origin of thermospheric gravity waves launched by auroral substorms and westward travelling surges
Several sequences of observations of strong vertical winds in the upper thermosphere are discussed, in conjunction with models of the generation of such winds. In the auroral oval, the strongest upward winds are observed in or close to regions of intense auroral precipitation and strong ionospheric currents. The strongest winds, of the order of 100 to 200 m/sec are usually upward, and are both localized and of relatively short duration (10 to 20 min). In regions adjacent to those displaying strong upward winds, and following periods of upward winds, downward winds of rather lower magnitude (40 to about 80 m/sec) may be observed. Strong and rapid changes of horizontal winds are correlated with these rapid vertical wind variations. Considered from a large scale viewpoint, this class of strongly time dependent winds propagate globally, and may be considered to be gravity waves launched from an auroral source. During periods of very disturbed geomagnetic activity, there may be regions within and close to the auroral oval where systematic vertical winds of the order of 50 m/sec will occur for periods of several hours. Such persistent winds are part of a very strong large scale horizontal wind circulation set up in the polar regions during a major geomagnetic disturbance. This second class of strong horizontal and vertical winds corresponds more to a standing wave than to a gravity wave, and it is not as effective as the first class in generating large scale propagating gravity waves and correlated horizontal and vertical oscillations. A third class of significant (10 to 30 m/sec) vertical winds can be associated with systematic features of the average geomagnetic energy and momentum input to the polar thermosphere, and appear in statistical studies of the average vertical wind as a function of Universal Time at a given location.
Rees, D.↗
Theory for the geomagnetic daily disturbance variations
Diurnal geomagnetic disturbance variation in ionosphere
IONOSPHERE↗
Geomagnetic transmission disturbances and heavy-ion fluences observed in low Earth orbit during the solar energetic particle events of October 1989
The large solar energetic particle (SEP) events and simultaneous large geomagnetic disturbances observed during October 1989 posed a significant, rapidly evolving space radiation hazard. Using data from the GOES-7, NOAA-10, IMP-8 and LDEF satellites, we determined the geomagnetic transmission, heavy ion fluences, mean Fe ionic charge state, and effective radiation hazard observed in low Earth orbit (LEO) for these SEPs. We modeled the geomagneitc transmission by tracing particles through the combination to the internal International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) and the Tsyganenko (1989) magnetospheric field models, extending the modeling to large geomagnetic disturbances. We used our results to assess the radiation hazard such very large SEP events would pose in the anticipated 52 deg inclination space station orbit.
Boberg, P. R.↗
Explorer 18 study of the stability of the magnetopause using a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability criterion
Explorer 18 magnetometer and plasma probe data are used to calculate the magnitude of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability criterion for 42 crossings of the magnetopause. The 30 crossings through the dipole field region show that for low levels of geomagnetic disturbance ( Kp less than or equal to 2) large regions of the magnetopause near the nose are stable, whereas for higher levels of geomagnetic disturbance (Kp greater than 2) only a small region near the nose is stable. The unstable regions are found further downstream. Similarly, the 12 crossings through the tail show that the unstable regions are downstream of the stable regions. The Kelvin-Helmholtz mechanism might be the 'viscous interaction' discussed by Axford and Hines (1961) and the relevant parameter for worldwide geomagnetic disturbance, just as the southward interplanetary field has been firmly established as the major relevant parameter in the case of substorm activity.
Boller, B. R.↗
Investigation of the association of magnetopause instability with interplanetary sector structure
The variation of the solar wind parameters (speed, magnetic field intensity, and proton density) and geomagnetic disturbance with location within the interplanetary sector structure is well established. The Kelvin-Helmholtz instability of the magnetopause provides a mechanism for the initiation of worldwide geomagnetic disturbance. Since the Kelvin-Helmholtz mechanism depends on an integration of several of the solar wind parameters, it was considered of interest to see how it varies within the sector structure. Support is given to the idea that the integration of the solar wind parameters via Kelvin-Helmholtz instability is an important concept in understanding geomagnetic disturbance.
Boller, B. R.↗
Observations of Thermospheric Horizontal Winds at Watson Lake, Yukon Territory (lambda=65 Deg N)
Fabry-Perot interferometer observations of the thermospheric O I (6300 A) emission have been conducted from an airglow observatory at a dark field site in the southeastern Yukon Territory, Canada, for the period November 1991 to April 1993. The experiment operated in unattended, remote fashion, has resulted in a substantial data set from which mean neutral winds have been determined. Dependent upon geomagnetic activity, the nocturnal location of the site is either equatorward of the auroral oval or within oval boundaries. The data set is rich enough to permit hourly binning of neutral winds based upon the K(sub p) geomagnetic disturbance index as well as the season. For cases of low geomagnetic activity the averaged vector horizontal neutral wind exhibits the characteristics of a midlatitude site displaying antisunward pressure-gradient-driven winds. As the geomagnetic activity rises in the late afternoon and evening winds slowly rotate sunward in an anticlockwise direction, initially remaining near 100 m/s in speed but eventually increasing to 300 m/s for K(sub p) greater than 5. For the higher levels of activity the observed neutral wind flow pattern resembles a higher-latitude polar cap pattern characterized by ion drag forcing of thermospheric neutral gases. In addition, rotational Coriolis forcing on the dusk side enhances the ion drag forcing, resulting in dusk winds which trace out the clockwise dusk cell plasma flow. On the dawn side the neutral winds also rotate in an anticlockwise direction as the strength of geomagnetic disturbances increase. Since the site is located at a transition latitude between the midlatitude and the polar cap the data set provides a sensitive test for general circulation models which attempt to parameterize the contribution of magnetospheric processes. A comparison with the Vector Spherical Harmonic (VSH) model indicates several regions of poor correspondence for December solstice conditions but reasonable agreement for the vernal equinox.
Niciejewski, R. J.↗
Neutral density measurements near 400 kilometers by a microphone density gage on Ogo 6 during July 12-15, 1969.
Analysis of persistent density peaks (maxima) measured near 400 km during daytime (1425 LT) by a microphone density gauge on Ogo 6 during July 12 to 15, 1969. Most of the density peaks occurred between geomagnetic latitudes 50 and 61 N and L values 2.3 and 4.7. The average density change in the peaks was 27%. Most of the peaks appeared in the longitude sector from 150 to 350 E. No density peaks were measured in the 50 to 130 E sector during the 3-1/2 day observation period. A persistent pair of density peaks was present on seven successive orbits during July 13 and July 14 (both geomagnetically disturbed days) near geomagnetic latitudes 53 and 61 N, respectively.
Anderson, A. D.↗
Diurnal variations of cosmic ray geomagnetic cut-off threshold rigidities
The spectrographic global survey method was used to investigate the rigidity variations Rc of geomagnetic cut-off as a function of local time and the level of geomagnetic disturbance for a number of stations of the world wide network. It is shown that geomagnetic cut-off threshold rigidities undergo diurnal variations. The diurnal wave amplitude decreases with increasing threshold rigidity Rc, and the wave maximum occurs at 2 to 4 hr LT. The amplitude of diurnal variations increases with increasing geomagnetic activity. The results agree with those from trajectory calculations made for an asymmetric model of the magnetosphere during different geomagnetic disturbance conditions.
Dvornikov, V. M.↗
Modelling of E-region auroral winds
A numerical code, describing the interactions between chemistry and dynamics in the coupled thermosphere and ionosphere systems, has been used to investigate the morphology of wind systems of the auroral E-region and, in particular, their response to geomagnetic forcing. The structure and dynamics of both the thermosphere and the ionosphere show very strong interactions at all levels of geomagnetic disturbance. By comparison, other perturbations, particularly those resulting from tidal and gravity wave sources within the lower atmosphere, which are important and easily identified during quiet periods, are always overwhelmed by the magnitude of the effects of large geomagnetic disturbances above about 110 km altitude. The model simulations will be used to characterize the geomagnetic response of the E-region neutral wind, temperature, and composition in different parts of the polar cap and the auroral oval, and the major changes resulting from seasonal variations.
Rees, David↗
Large scale solar magnetic fields at the site of flares, the greatness of flares, and solar-terrestrial disturbances
Evidence is presented for an intrinsically solar effect which may dominate such solar-terrestrial correlations as that reported by Chertkov (1976), where large H-alpha flares during 1967-1972 in solar active regions with overlying fields on a 100,000 km scale and predominantly north-to-south orientation were more efficient in the production of geomagnetic disturbances than comparable flares in regions whose fields at the flare sites were directed south-to-north. In addition to being responsible for geomagnetic disturbance enhancements, this purely solar effect may cause solar wind velocity and solar flare proton flux enhancements. If the effect can be generalized to other portions of the solar cycle, it could improve present understanding of the flare mechanism and therefore prove useful in the prediction of solar-terrestrial disturbances.
Dodson, H. W.↗
Anomalous low level of cosmic ray intensity decreases observed during 1980
Past studies have revealed solar cycle changes in the sunspot activity, as well as in many other solar parameters, such as, solar flares and solar coronal holes. These solar features in turn produce the observed cyclic variations in the interplanetary plasma and fields. Both the cosmic ray intensity as well as the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances are affected by the interplanetary changes and produce 11/22 year periodicity. An anomalous situation has been noticed during the year 1980 (period of high sunspot activity), when both the geomagnetic disturbance index Ap, as well as the magnitude and number of Forbush decreases as small. Such an anomaly occurs, in spite of the fact that both the sunspot numbers and the energetic solar flares are almost maximum during the present solar cycle.
Jain, A. K.↗
Study of dominating parameters of high speed solar plasma streams in relation to cosmic ray and geomagnetic storms
The high speed solar wind streams observed near Earth are generally associated with the solar features, such as solar flares and coronal holes. Past studies of these streams from the two sources have revealed distinctly different effects on cosmic ray intensity, whereas the effect is similar for geomagnetic disturbances. Moreover, the effect of the magnitude of the high speed streams (V) and its rate of increase (dv/dt) has also been a subject of investigation to understand their relative contribution in producing geomagnetic disturbances. From the analysis of some of the fast streams presented here, it is difficult to predict, which one of the two (V, dv/dt) is more effective in producing geo-magnetic disturbances. Further, in most of the cases, no substantial decrease in cosmic ray intensity is observed.
Mishra, B. L.↗
Is the Global MHD Modeling of the Magnetosphere Adequate for GIC Prediction: the May 27–28, 2017 Storm
Practical steps taken by the international community to reduce the damage to technological systems from space weather include the development of numerical models capable of real-time predictions of electromagnetic disturbances at the Earth’s surface. Here we examine the feasibility of a version of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) global MHD simulation code similar to that used by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center to predict the level of geomagnetic field variability, and consequently geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). We consider the contribution of geomagnetic disturbances to the bursts of GIC in the electric power line of the Kola Peninsula during the May 27–28, 2017 storm and compare the observations with results of the global MHD model. During the maximal disturbance magnetic field variations at East Scandinavian stations become more irregular, as intense Pi3 pulsations are superposed on the magnetic bay. These pulsations are not quasi-sinusoidal waves like typical Pc5 pulsations, but they are rather a quasi-periodic sequence of magnetic impulses with time scales ~5–15 min. During this period with elevated Pi3 activity very high values of GIC were recorded (variations >100 A) in the electric power transmission line. The SWMF modeling reasonably well reproduces the global magnetospheric parameters, such as SYM-H index or cross-polar potential. However, the magnetic field variability dB/dt in the East Scandinavia predicted by the modeling has turned out to be more than order of magnitude less than that observed. Thus, the version of SWMF with the grid used by NOAA SWPC still cannot adequately predict for the May 27–28 event the fine structure of the storm/substorm—Pi3 geomagnetic disturbances, and consequently the magnitude of the GIC that they drive.
geomagnetically induced currents↗
Physics-informed heterogeneous graph neural networks for DC blocker placement
The threat of geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) to the reliable operation of the bulk energy system has spurred the development of effective strategies for mitigating their impacts. One such approach involves placing transformer neutral blocking devices, which interrupt the path of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) to limit their impact. The high cost of these devices and the sparsity of transformers that experience high GICs during GMD events, however, calls for a sparse placement strategy that involves high computational cost. To address this challenge, we developed a physics-informed heterogeneous graph neural network (PIHGNN) for solving the graph-based dc-blocker placement problem. Our approach combines a heterogeneous graph neural network (HGNN) with a physics-informed neural network (PINN) to capture the diverse types of nodes and edges in ac/dc networks and incorporates the physical laws of the power grid. We train the PIHGNN model using a surrogate power flow model and validate it using case studies. Results demonstrate that PIHGNN can effectively and efficiently support the deployment of GIC dc-current blockers, ensuring the continued supply of electricity to meet societal demands. Furthermore, our approach has the potential to contribute to the development of more reliable and resilient power grids capable of withstanding the growing threat that GMDs pose.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Identification of Flux Rope Orientation via Neural Networks
Geomagnetic disturbance forecasting is based on the identification of solar wind structures and accurate determination of their magnetic field orientation. For nowcasting activities, this is currently a tedious and manual process. Focusing on the main driver of geomagnetic disturbances, the twisted internal magnetic field of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), we explore a convolutional neural network’s (CNN) ability to predict the embedded magnetic flux rope’s orientation once it has been identified from in situ solar wind observations. Our work uses CNNs trained with magnetic field vectors from analytical flux rope data. The simulated flux ropes span many possible spacecraft trajectories and flux rope orientations. We train CNNs first with full duration flux ropes and then again with partial duration flux ropes. The former provides us with a baseline of how well CNNs can predict flux rope orientation while the latter provides insights into real-time forecasting by exploring how accuracy is affected by percentage of flux rope observed. The process of casting the physics problem as a machine learning problem is discussed as well as the impacts of different factors on prediction accuracy such as flux rope fluctuations and different neural network topologies. Finally, results from evaluating the trained network against observed ICMEs from Wind during 1995–2015 are presented.
Thomas Narock↗
24/7 Solar Minimum Polar Cap and Auroral Ion Temperature Observations
During the International Polar Year (IPY) two Incoherent Scatter Radars (ISRs) achieved close to 24/7 continuous observations. This presentation describes their data sets and specifically how they can provide the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) a fiduciary E- and F-region ionosphere description for solar minimum conditions in both the auroral and polar cap regions. The ionospheric description being electron density, ion temperature and electron temperature profiles from as low as 90 km extending to several scale heights above the F-layer peak. The auroral location is Poker Flat in Alaska at 65.1 N latitude, 212.5 E longitude where the NSF s new Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR) is located. This location during solar minimum conditions is in the auroral region for most of the day but is at midlatitudes, equator ward of the cusp, for about 4-8 h per day dependent upon geomagnetic activity. In contrast the polar location is Svalbard, at 78.2 N latitude, 16.0 E longitude where the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR) is located. For most of the day the ESR is in the Northern Polar Cap with a noon sector passage often through the dayside cusp. Of unique relevance to IRI is that these extended observations have enabled the ionospheric morphology to be distinguished between quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions. During the IPY year, 1 March 2007 - 29 February 2008, about 50 solar wind Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) impacted geospace. Each CIR has a two to five day geomagnetic disturbance that is observed in the ESR and PFISR observations. Hence, this data set also enables the quiet-background ionospheric climatology to be established as a function of season and local time. These two separate climatologies for the ion temperature at an altitude of 300 km are presented and compared with IRI ion temperatures. The IRI ion temperatures are about 200-300 K hotter than the observed values. However, the MSIS neutral temperature at 300 km compares favorably with the quiet-background in temperature, both in magnitude and climatology.
Sojka, Jan J.↗
An analysis of auroral E region neutral winds based on incoherent scatter radar observations at Chatanika
The physical origin of auroral E-region neutral winds during geomagnetic disturbances is investigated by comparing incoherent-backscatter radar observations made at Chatanika, Alaska, during such disturbances with detailed theoretical calculations of neutral velocities for these conditions. In the analysis, an ion-drag collisional-coupling model is adopted as the primary driving force for the neutral winds. Electric fields and electron number densities observed by the radar facility are used in the calculations, and the coupled ion and neutral momentum equations are solved numerically as functions of altitude and time in the ion-drag approximation. The altitude structure of the velocity field is examined, and the detailed response of the neutral gas to the ion-drag mechanism is delineated. Weighted altitude averages of the calculated velocities are obtained, the accuracy of the procedure for deriving neutral winds from incoherent-scatter radar observations is evaluated, and the comparison is carried out. It is concluded that both ion drag and pressure gradients appear to be required to explain the neutral winds observed in the auroral E-region during geomagnetic disturbances.
Comfort, R. H.↗