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NASA NTRS2002

The Living With a Star CDAW on the Solar and Geospace Connections of Solar Energetic Particles

The Living With a Star Program is sponsoring its first CDAW (Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop) to be held July 23-26, 2002 at a conference support location near the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. This CDAW's topic is Solar Energetic Particle events. The topic was chosen due to the breadth of the impact of SEP's on the space environment and terrestrial climate. General goals of the LWS CDAW are a) Stimulate LWS Science on the near term, b) Facilitate cross-disciplinary interaction between the LWS scientific and space environment communities, c) Produce science products for all potential users, and d) Assist in the development of the LWS data system. The workshop will proceed similar to a previous CDAW held in 1999 on Interplanetary Type 11 Shocks. A list of target events has been compiled, which can be found at the workshop home page. The page lists all of the SEP events from 1996 January to 2001 December with energy > 10 MeV particle intensities exceeding 10 PFU. Preparation for the workshop consists of identifying relevant data from a wide variety of sources (solar, interplanetary, magnetospheric and climatary), accumulating the data (frequently this consists of both raw data, processed data and plots to ease perusal during the workshop) and gathering the software tools. Participants in the workshop are expected to complete their contributions of data or models prior to arriving at the workshop. Most of the CDAW consists of joint analysis of this data; only a few introductory talks are given at the beginning of the workshop, with the rest of the time being devoted to producing scientific results. Additional symposia may be scheduled at a later date, which will allow a venue for scientific talks on the CDAW results and associated science. The poster will list the scientific goals of the workshop, as well as a scientific discussion of the data which has been accumulated thus far.

Thompson, Barbara J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Theoretical Study of the Global Geospace System Simulations

This report describes work undertaken by the principal investigator (PI) and her colleagues in three areas of research: Relativistic Electron Dynamics, Solar Energetic Particle Study, and ULF Wave Statistical Study. The researchers conducted three dimensional modeling of relativistic electron dynamics, simulated Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) trapping using a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code, and a study of Pc 5 magnetic pulsations.

Hudson, Mary K.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Global Geospace Science (GGS)/POLAR Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiments (TIDE) Co-Investigator Program: Mission Operations and Data Analysis (MO/DA)

We have pursued several investigations using the Polar/TIDE data set. The first was a comparison of TIDE high-altitude observations with similar ion flux signatures in the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) magnetospheric plasma analyzer (MPA) data. There are several geosynchronously orbiting satellites with LANL MPA instruments onboard. When the satellite is immersed in fresh plasma sheet electrons, the spacecraft voltage drops to several hundred volts negative, and cold ions are accelerated in to the detector. In the LANL MPA spectrograms, the accelerated cold ions appear as a bright, narrow line, following the voltage of the spacecraft. This "ion line" is seen regularly on the nightside, but has not received much attention. The Polar TIDE observations indicated a ubiquitous "lobal wind" in the near-- magnetotail, a field-aligned stream of approx. 100 eV ions flowing out of both polar ionospheres. The interesting result of this research is that the MPA ion line is also peaked in the field-aligned direction, even though the potential well should be uniform in all directions. It is believed that this is evidence that the lobal winds not only populate the high-latitude lobes, but fill the lobes all the way in to the near-Earth plasma sheet (the location of geosynchronous orbit). This activity developed into a full-scale survey of the lobal wind observations in the TIDE database. The universality of these observations with respect to local time and solar wind conditions implies that the ionospheric outflow is supplying the near-Earth plasma sheet at all times, regardless of magnetic activity. We have conducted a statistical study of the characteristics of the lobal wind in these two data sets FIDE and LANL MPA), finding much similarity between them. Using these characteristics as input conditions to our inner magnetosphere ion transport model, we have conducted simulations of the flow of these particles inside of geosynchronous orbit to show the impact these particles will have on the near-Earth space environment. As the study has progressed, these results have been presented several times to the TIDE team during teleconferences. It is planned to present this survey at the GEM 2004 Summer Workshop, and hopefully at additional conferences in the near future. We are presently writing a paper on the lobal wind occurrence statistics, which should be submitted in April or May to the Journal of Geophysical Research for publication. An undergraduate student at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, Will Maddox, working at NASA MSFC with Dr. Paul Craven, is presently creating a database of the values TIDE moments for the lobal wind (under Dr. Liemohn's guidance), and this will be the focus of a follow-on paper.

Nagy, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solar Sources and Geospace Consequences of Interplanetary Magnetic Clouds Observed During Solar Cycle 23

We present results of a statistical investigation of 99 magnetic clouds (MCs) observed during 1995-2005. The MC-associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are faster and wider on the average and originate within +/-30deg from the solar disk center. The solar sources of MCs also followed the butterfly diagram. The correlation between the magnetic field strength and speed of MCs was found to be valid over a much wider range of speeds. The number of south-north (SN) MCs was dominant and decreased with solar cycle, while the number of north-south (NS) MCs increased confirming the odd-cycle behavior. Two-thirds of MCs were geoeffective; the Dst index was highly correlated with speed and magnetic field in MCs as well as their product. Many (55%) fully northward (FN) MCs were geoeffective solely due to their sheaths. The non-geoeffective MCs were slower (average speed approx. 382 km/s), had a weaker southward magnetic field (average approx. -5.2nT), and occurred mostly during the rise phase of the solar activity cycle.

Gopalswamy, N.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Community-wide Validation of Geospace Model Ground Magnetic Field Perturbation Predictions to Support Model Transition to Operations

In this paper we continue the community-wide rigorous modern space weather model validation efforts carried out within GEM, CEDAR and SHINE programs. In this particular effort, in coordination among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), modelers, and science community, we focus on studying the models' capability to reproduce observed ground magnetic field fluctuations, which are closely related to geomagnetically induced current phenomenon. One of the primary motivations of the work is to support NOAA SWPC in their selection of the next numerical model that will be transitioned into operations. Six geomagnetic events and 12 geomagnetic observatories were selected for validation.While modeled and observed magnetic field time series are available for all 12 stations, the primary metrics analysis is based on six stations that were selected to represent the high-latitude and mid-latitude locations. Events-based analysis and the corresponding contingency tables were built for each event and each station. The elements in the contingency table were then used to calculate Probability of Detection (POD), Probability of False Detection (POFD) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS) for rigorous quantification of the models' performance. In this paper the summary results of the metrics analyses are reported in terms of POD, POFD and HSS. More detailed analyses can be carried out using the event by event contingency tables provided as an online appendix. An online interface built at CCMC and described in the supporting information is also available for more detailed time series analyses.

MAGNETIC↗
NASA NTRS2018

Predicting Global Ground Geoelectric Field With Coupled Geospace and Three-Dimensional Geomagnetic Induction Models

We forecast the global effects of space weather on the geoelectric and geomagnetic fields using a novel combination of methods. We use a realistic three-dimensional (3-D) model of Earth's electrical conductivity and a realistic representation of magnetospheric and ionospheric current systems. Our scheme involves the following steps: (1) We run a global magnetohydrodynamic model of the magnetosphere coupled to an electrostatic model of the ionosphere. (2) We calculate a global time series of the ground magnetic field resulting from the ionospheric, field-aligned, and magnetospheric currents of the global magnetohydrodynamic model. (3) We approximate this external field by an equivalent source current flowing in a thin shell above Earth. (4) We calculate a global time series of geoelectric and geomagnetic fields from the equivalent current and a 3-D conductivity model of Earth that also takes into account the coast effect due to large horizontal conductivity gradient. We verify our implementation by comparing the results against known analytic and numeric solutions, and then apply our scheme to the geomagnetic storm of 14 and 15 December 2006. In particular, we show that accounting for 3-D structure of Earth's conductivity results in significantly enhanced geoelectric field at large lateral gradients of conductivity, especially in coastal regions, both at middle and high latitudes. In the studied geomagnetic storm the largest values of 3-D geoelectric field are detected at high latitudes reaching 2.5 volts per kilometer and the 3-D effect extends inland by a few hundred kilometers.

Honkonen, I.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Magnetosphere Ionosphere Electron Precipitation Dynamics and Their Geospace Consequences During the 17 March 2013 Storm

During geomagnetic storms and substorms, the magnetosphere and ionosphere are strongly coupled by precipitating magnetospheric electrons from the Earth's plasma sheet and driven by both magnetospheric and ionospheric processes. Magnetospheric wave activity initiates electron precipitation, and the ionosphere and upper atmosphere further facilitate this process by enhancing the value of precipitated energy uxes via connection of two magnetically conjugate regions and multiple atmospheric reections. This paper focuses on the resulting electron energy uxes and afliated heightintegrated Pedersen and Hall conductances in the auroral regions produced by multiple atmospheric reections during the 17 March 2013 geomagnetic storm and their effects on the inner magnetospheric electric eld and ring current. Our study is based on the magnetically and electrically selfconsistent Rice ConvectionModelEquilibrium of the inner magnetosphere with SuperThermal Electron Transport modied electron energy uxes that take into account the electron energy interplay between the two magnetically conjugate ionospheres. SuperThermal Electron Transportmodied energy ux in the Rice ConvectionModelEquilibrium leads to a signicant difference in the global conductance pattern, ionospheric electric eld formation, Birkeland current structure, ring current energization and its energy content, subauroral polarization drifts intensications and their spatial locations, interchange instability redistribution, and overall energy interplay on the global scale.

Khazanov, George V.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Gaining the most utility from our geospace observational system: Network analysis of total electron content as a means to understand space weather to the point of prediction

We present the first network analysis of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) clock angle dependent, high-latitude, hemispheric-specific total electron content (TEC) data. We examine network parameters to describe spatio-temporal correlations in the TEC data for January 2016. We find that significant network structure exists distinguishing the dayside and nightside ionosphere, and specific features in the high-latitudes (cusp/ionospheric footpoints of magnetospheric boundary layers, polar cap, and auroral zone), and that these features vary with IMF clock angle. In this brief summary paper, we provide proof of concept results and identify important areas of future research, providing a basis for the discussion of network analysis and machine learning approaches for space weather applications.

Malik, Nishant↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NAIRAS Model Updates and Improvements to the Prediction of the Ionizing Radiation Environment from the Earth's Surface to Geospace

- NAIRAS Model Description - Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing RAdiation System (NAIRAS) Model - Running in real-time on LaRC computer cluster since 2011, results hosted on Space Environment Technologies server/website - Running in real-time at CCMC since 2020 - Key Model Features - Global ionizing radiation environment model - Physics-based HZETRN (High Charge (Z) and Energy TRaNsport) code - Real-time inclusion of solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation - Real-time solar-magnetospheric effects on radiation (cutoff model by Kress et al. [2004, 2010]) - New/Current Model Development - Improved SEP dose nowcast and forecast - Extend to low-Earth orbit (LEO) environment - Single-Event Effects (SEE) radiation risk assessment quantities - Run-on-Request (RoR) @ CCMC

Christopher J. Mertens↗