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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Organic matter distribution in the icy environments of Taylor Valley, Antarctica

Glaciers can accumulate and release organic matter affecting the structure and function of associated terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Here we analyzed 18 ice cores collected from six locations in Taylor Valley (McMurdo Dry Valleys), Antarctica to determine the spatial abundance and quality of organic matter, and the spatial distribution of bacterial density and community structure from the terminus of the Taylor Glacier to the coast (McMurdo Sound). Our results showed that dissolved and particulate organic carbon (DOC and POC) concentrations in the ice core samples increased from the Taylor Glacier to McMurdo Sound, a pattern also shown by bacterial cell density. Fluorescence Excitation Emission Matrices Spectroscopy (EEMs) and multivariate parallel factor (PARAFAC) modeling identified one humic-like (C1) and one protein-like (C2) component in ice cores whose fluorescent intensities all increased from the Polar Plateau to the coast. The fluorescence index showed that the bioavailability of dissolved organic matter (DOM) also decreased from the Polar Plateau to the coast. Partial least squares path modeling analysis revealed that bacterial abundance was the main positive biotic factor influencing both the quantity and quality of organic matter. Marine aerosol influenced the spatial distribution of DOC more than katabatic winds in the ice cores. Certain bacterial taxa showed significant correlations with DOC and POC concentrations. Collectively, our results show the tight connectivity among organic matter spatial distribution, bacterial abundance and meteorology in the McMurdo Dry Valley ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Latest Pleistocene glacial chronology and paleoclimate reconstruction for the East River watershed, Colorado, USA

Reconstructing Pleistocene glaciation timing and extent is vital for understanding paleoclimate. Whereas late Pleistocene glaciation has been studied extensively in western North American mountain ranges, the glacial history of the western Elk Range in Colorado remains understudied, particularly in the East River watershed, a site of intense scientific focus. Here we use cosmogenic nuclide exposure and depth–profile dating methods to determine the timing of glaciation in the East River watershed. We use glacier modeling to reconstruct paleoglacier extents and quantify past climate conditions. Our findings indicate that the East River glacier retreated from its maximum position approximately 17–18 ka, moving to recessional positions between 13 and 15 ka, before experiencing more substantial retreat to high-elevation cirques around 13 ka. Glacier modeling suggests that the maximum ice extents at 17–18 ka could have been sustained by temperature depressions of approximately −6.5°C compared to modern conditions, assuming consistent precipitation. Additionally, the ice position at 13–15 ka could have been supported by temperature depressions of around −4.0°C. These results offer insights into the deglaciation timeline in the East River watershed and broader western Elk Range as well as paleoclimate conditions during the late Pleistocene, which may aid future research on critical zone evolution in the East River watershed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Global Fingerprint of Modern Ice-Mass Loss on 3-D Crustal Motion

Crustal motion generated by rapid ice-mass loss from Earth's glaciers and ice sheets has previously been considered in Global Navigational Satellite System (GNSS) analyses and numerical models across regions of ice retreat. However, the fingerprint of ice-mass loss is not limited to glaciated areas, but is characterized by a global pattern of 3-D crustal deformation. We compute “far-field” vertical and horizontal deformation rates that occurred in response to early 21st century mass flux from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets, global glaciers and ice caps, and associated ocean loading. We demonstrate that mass changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet and high latitude glacier systems each generated average crustal motion of 0.1–0.4 mm/yr across much of the Northern Hemisphere, with significant year-to-year variability in magnitude and direction. Horizontal motions associated with ice-mass loss exceed vertical rates in many far-field areas, and both should be considered in future analysis of GNSS measurements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Direct Geologic Constraints on the Timing of Late Holocene Ice Thickening in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, Antarctica

Abstract Constraining past West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) change helps validate numerical models simulating future ice sheet dynamics. Following rapid deglaciation during the mid‐Holocene, ice near Thwaites Glacier was ∼35 m thinner than present; however, the timing of ice regrowth to its present configuration remains unknown. To fill this knowledge gap, we present cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages of cobbles from the surface of a moraine situated between Thwaites and Pope glaciers. We infer that the moraine formed and stabilized in the Late Holocene (∼1.4 ka) when a small glacier thickened. We also present a novel reconstruction of WAIS volume constrained by sea‐level data, which demonstrates that moraine formation coincided with a large‐scale WAIS readvance. Our new geologic constraints will help inform models of the solid Earth response to surface mass loading, improving our understanding of ice sheet dynamics in a vulnerable part of WAIS.

Nichols, Keir A. [Imperial College London London U↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rates of Sea‐Level Rise Are Highly Sensitive to Ice Viscosity Parameters in Model Benchmarks

Glacier flow plays a major role in current and future rates of globally averaged sea-level rise. The viscosity of glacial ice, controlling the rate of flow, decreases as stress increases and is highly sensitive to the value of the stress exponent, $n$, in the constitutive equation for viscous flow. Glaciologists and climate modelers almost exclusively assume $n=3$ when modeling ice flow and projecting sea-level rise through forward modeling. However, recent work suggests that $n\approx 4$ better fits observations, prompting the question: How sensitive are projections of sea-level rise to the value of $n$? We use an established community ice flow model and standard benchmark experiments designed as an idealized representation of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. While initializing an $n=3$ model to match observations of an $n=4$ ice sheet is possible, we find that incorrectly assuming $n=3$ when in fact $n=4$ dramatically underestimates rates of sea-level rise. The scale of this error grows nonlinearly with the magnitude of the climate forcing, acting to increase projection uncertainties. Additionally, we find that models often account for this stress-dependent rheology mismatch during model initialization in a way that masks this rheological effect in the short term while leaving model outputs vulnerable to larger biases in longer-term projections. Initializations to observations of Pine Island Glacier display similar rheology-mismatch fingerprints to our idealized example.

climate sensitivity↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. In this work, we find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Early Holocene cold snaps and their expression in the moraine record of the eastern European Alps

Glaciers preserve climate variations in their geological and geomorphological records, which makes them prime candidates for climate reconstructions. Investigating the glacier–climate system over the past millennia is particularly relevant first because the amplitude and frequency of natural climate variability during the Holocene provides the climatic context against which modern, human-induced climate change must be assessed. Second, the transition from the last glacial to the current interglacial promises important insights into the climate system during warming, which is of particular interest with respect to ongoing climate change. Evidence of stable ice margin positions that record cooling during the past 12 kyr are preserved in two glaciated valleys of the Silvretta Massif in the eastern European Alps, the Jamtal (JAM) and the Laraintal (LAR). We mapped and dated moraines in these catchments including historical ridges using beryllium-10 surface exposure dating (10Be SED) techniques and correlate resulting moraine formation intervals with climate proxy records to evaluate the spatial and temporal scale of these cold phases. The new geochronologies indicate the formation of moraines during the early Holocene (EH), ca. 11.0 ± 0.7 ka (n = 19). Boulder ages along historical moraines (n = 6) suggest at least two glacier advances during the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1250–1850 CE) around 1300 CE and in the second half of the 18th century. An earlier advance to the same position may have occurred around 500 CE. The Jamtal and Laraintal moraine chronologies provide evidence that millennial-scale EH warming was superimposed by centennial-scale cooling. The timing of EH moraine formation coincides with brief temperature drops identified in local and regional paleoproxy records, most prominently with the Preboreal Oscillation (PBO) and is consistent with moraine deposition in other catchments in the European Alps and in the Arctic region. This consistency points to cooling beyond the local scale and therefore a regional or even hemispheric climate driver. Freshwater input sourced from the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), which changed circulation patterns in the North Atlantic, is a plausible explanation for EH cooling and moraine formation in the Nordic region and in Europe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energetics of surface melt in West Antarctica

We use reanalysis data and satellite remote sensing of cloud properties to examine how meteorological conditions alter the surface energy balance to cause surface melt that is detectable in satellite passive microwave imagery over West Antarctica. This analysis can detect each of the three primary mechanisms for inducing surface melt at a specific location: thermal blanketing involving sensible heat flux and/or longwave heating by optically thick cloud cover, all-wave radiative enhancement by optically thin cloud cover, and föhn winds. We examine case studies over Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, which are of interest for ice shelf and ice sheet stability, and over Siple Dome, which is more readily accessible for field work. During January 2015 over Siple Dome we identified a melt event whose origin is an all-wave radiative enhancement by optically thin clouds. During December 2011 over Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, we identified a melt event caused mainly by thermal blanketing from optically thick clouds. Over Siple Dome, those same 2011 synoptic conditions yielded a thermal-blanketing-driven melt event that was initiated by an impulse of sensible heat flux and then prolonged by cloud longwave heating. The December 2011 synoptic conditions also generated föhn winds at a location on the Ross Ice Shelf adjacent to the Transantarctic Mountains, and we analyze this case with additional support from automatic weather station data. In contrast, a late-summer thermal blanketing period over Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers during February 2013 showed surface melt initiated by cloud longwave heating and then prolonged by enhanced sensible heat flux. One limitation thus far with this type of analysis involves uncertainties in the cloud optical properties. Nevertheless, with improvements this type of analysis can enable quantitative prediction of atmospheric stress on the vulnerable Antarctic ice shelves in a steadily warming climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Solid-phase Mn speciation in suspended particles along meltwater-influenced fjords of West Greenland

Manganese (Mn) is an essential micro-nutrient that can limit or, along with iron (Fe), co-limit phytoplankton growth in the ocean. Glacier meltwater is thought to be a key source of trace metals to high latitude coastal systems, but little is known about the nature of Mn delivered to glacially-influenced fjords and adjacent coastal waters. In this work, we combine in-situ dissolved Mn (dMn) measurements of surface waters with Mn K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) data of suspended particles in four fjords of West Greenland. Data were collected from transects of up to 100 km in fjords with different underlying bedrock geology from 64 to 70°N. We found that dMn concentrations generally decreased conservatively with increasing salinity (from 80 to 120 nM at salinity < 8 to < 40 nM at salinities > 25). Dissolved Fe (dFe) trends in these fjords similarly declined with increasing distance from glacier outflows (declining from > 20 nM to < 8 nM). However, the dMn/dFe ratio increased rapidly likely due to the greater stability of dMn at intermediate salinities (i.e. 10–20) compared to rapid precipitation of dFe across the salinity gradient. The XAS data indicated a widespread presence of Mn(II)-rich suspended particles near fjord surfaces, with structures akin to Mn(II)-bearing phyllosilicates. However, a distinct increase in Mn oxidation state with depth and the predominance of birnessite-like Mn(IV) oxides was observed for suspended particles in a fjord with tertiary basalt geology. The similar dMn behaviour in fjords with different suspended particle Mn speciation (i.e., Mn(II)-bearing phyllosilicates and Mn(IV)-rich birnessite) is consistent with the decoupling of dissolved and particulate Mn and suggests that dMn concentrations on the scale of these fjords are controlled primarily by dilution of a freshwater dMn source rather than exchange between dissolved and particle phases. This work provides new insights into the Mn cycle in high latitude coastal waters, where small changes in the relative availabilities of dMn, dFe and macronutrients may affect the identity of the nutrient(s) proximally limiting primary production.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physical Controls on the Hydrology of Perennially Ice-Covered Lakes, Taylor Valley, Antarctica (1996–2013)

The McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, are a polar desert populated with numerous closed-watershed, perennially ice-covered lakes primarily fed by glacial melt. Lake levels have varied by as much as 8 m since 1972 and are currently rising after a decade of decreasing. Precipitation falls as snow, so lake hydrology is dominated by energy available to melt glacier ice and to sublimate lake ice. To understand the energy and hydrologic controls on lake level changes and to explain the variability between neighboring lakes, only a few kilometers apart, we model the hydrology for the three largest lakes in Taylor Valley. Here, we apply a physically based hydrological model that includes a surface energy balance model to estimate glacial melt and lake sublimation to constrain mass fluxes to and from the lakes. Results show that lake levels are very sensitive to small changes in glacier albedo, air temperature, and wind speed. We were able to balance the hydrologic budget in two watersheds using meltwater inflow and sublimation loss from the ice-covered lake alone. A third watershed, closest to the coast, required additional inflow beyond model uncertainties. We hypothesize a shallow groundwater system within the active layer, fed by dispersed snow patches, contributes 23% of the inflow to this watershed. The lakes are out of equilibrium with the current climate. If the climate of our study period (1996–2013) persists into the future, the lakes will reach equilibrium starting in 2300, with levels 2–17 m higher, depending on the lake, relative to the 2020 level.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Radiocarbon Fingerprinting Black Carbon Source History in the Himalayas

Abstract Black carbon (BC) is considered as an important contributor to the Himalayan glaciers melt in the past few decades. However, the long‐term source apportionment of BC remains unclear. Here we present the first radiocarbon ( 14 C)‐based annual variation of BC source apportionment in an ice core spanning the period of 1959–2012 drilled from the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau, a receptor site of South Asia outflow. We find fossil fuel combustion is a major contribution (73% ± 5%), yet the biomass burning fraction ( ƒ biomass ) has grown from 24% ± 4% to 30% ± 4% since 1990. Intriguingly, we further find the ƒ biomass demonstrating a robust correlation with South Asian wildfires linked to climate oscillations. Thus, for mitigating BC impacts on Himalayan glaciers, South Asia's transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is a more efficient and urgent strategy than reducing residential biomass burning.

Wang, Mo [State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau ↗
DOE OSTI2022

A detection of the sea level fingerprint of Greenland Ice Sheet melt

Rapid melting of ice sheets and glaciers drives a unique geometry, or fingerprint, of sea level change. However, the detection of individual fingerprints has been challenging because of sparse observations at high latitudes and the difficulty of disentangling ocean dynamic variability from the signal. Here we predict the fingerprint of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) melt using recent ice mass loss estimates from radar altimetry data and model reconstructions of nearby glaciers and compare this prediction to an independent, altimetry-derived sea surface height trend corrected for ocean dynamic variability in the region adjacent to the ice sheet. A statistically significant correlation between the two fields (P < 0.001) provides an unambiguous observational detection of the near-field sea level fingerprint of recent GrIS melting in our warming world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change

Abstract. This study investigated the computational benefits of using multi-fidelity statistical estimation (MFSE) algorithms to quantify uncertainty in the mass change of Humboldt Glacier, Greenland, between 2007 and 2100 using a single climate change scenario. The goal of this study was to determine whether MFSE can use multiple models of varying cost and accuracy to reduce the computational cost of estimating the mean and variance of the projected mass change of a glacier. The problem size and complexity were chosen to reflect the challenges posed by future continental-scale studies while still facilitating a computationally feasible investigation of MFSE methods. When quantifying uncertainty introduced by a high-dimensional parameterization of the basal friction field, MFSE was able to reduce the mean-squared error in the estimates of the statistics by well over an order of magnitude when compared to a single-fidelity approach that only used the highest-fidelity model. This significant reduction in computational cost was achieved despite the low-fidelity models used being incapable of capturing the local features of the ice-flow fields predicted by the high-fidelity model. The MFSE algorithms were able to effectively leverage the high correlation between each model's predictions of mass change, which all responded similarly to perturbations in the model inputs. Consequently, our results suggest that MFSE could be highly useful for reducing the cost of computing continental-scale probabilistic projections of sea-level rise due to ice-sheet mass change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

SICOPOLIS-AD v1: an open-source adjoint modeling framework for ice sheet simulation enabled by the algorithmic differentiation tool OpenAD

We present a new capability of the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS that enables flexible adjoint code generation via source transformation using the open-source algorithmic differentiation (AD) tool OpenAD.The adjoint code enables efficient calculation of the sensitivities of a scalar-valued objective function or quantity of interest (QoI) to a range of important, often spatially varying and uncertain model input variables, including initial and boundary conditions, as well as model parameters.Compared to earlier work on the adjoint code generation of SICOPOLIS, our work makes several important advances:(i) it is embedded within the up-to-date trunk of the SICOPOLIS repository – accounting for 1.5 decades of code development and improvements – and is readily available to the wider community;(ii) the AD tool used, OpenAD, is an open-source tool;(iii) the adjoint code developed is applicable to both Greenland and Antarctica, including grounded ice as well as floating ice shelves, with an extended choice of thermodynamical representations.A number of code refactorization steps were required. They are discussed in detail in an Appendix as they hold lessons for the application of AD to legacy codes at large.As an example application, we examine the sensitivity of the total Antarctic Ice Sheet volume to changes in initial ice thickness, austral summer precipitation, and basal and surface temperatures across the ice sheet.Simulations of Antarctica with floating ice shelves show that over 100 years of simulation the sensitivity of total ice sheet volume to the initial ice thickness and precipitation is almost uniformly positive, while the sensitivities to surface and basal temperature are almost uniformly negative. Sensitivity to austral summer precipitation is largest on floating ice shelves from Queen Maud to Queen Mary Land. The largest sensitivity to initial ice thickness is at outlet glaciers around Antarctica. Comparison between total ice sheet volume sensitivities to surface and basal temperature shows that surface temperature sensitivities are higher broadly across the floating ice shelves, while basal temperature sensitivities are highest at the grounding lines of floating ice shelves and outlet glaciers. A uniformly perturbed region of East Antarctica reveals that, among the four control variables tested here, total ice sheet volume is the most sensitive to variations in austral summer precipitation as formulated in SICOPOLIS.Comparison between adjoint- and finite-difference-derived sensitivities shows good agreement, lending confidence that the AD tool is producing correct adjoint code.The new modeling infrastructure is freely available at http://www.sicopolis.net (last access: 2 April 2020) under the development trunk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reversible ice sheet thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment during the Late Holocene

Cosmogenic-nuclide concentrations in subglacial bedrock cores show that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) at a site between Thwaites and Pope glaciers was at least 35 m thinner than present in the past several thousand years and then subsequently thickened. This is important because of concern that present thinning and grounding line retreat at these and nearby glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment may irreversibly lead to deglaciation of significant portions of the WAIS, with decimeter- to meter-scale sea level rise within decades to centuries. A past episode of ice sheet thinning that took place in a similar, although not identical, climate was not irreversible. We propose that the past thinning–thickening cycle was due to a glacioisostatic rebound feedback, similar to that invoked as a possible stabilizing mechanism for current grounding line retreat, in which isostatic uplift caused by Early Holocene thinning led to relative sea level fall favoring grounding line advance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wintertime Supraglacial Lake Drainage Cascade Triggers Large‐Scale Ice Flow Response in Greenland

Surface melt forces summertime ice-flow accelerations on glaciers and ice sheets. Here, we show that large meltwater-forced accelerations also occur during wintertime in Greenland. We document supraglacial lakes (SGLs) draining in cascades at unusually high elevation, causing an expansive flow acceleration over a ~5,200 km 2 region during winter. The three-component interferometric surface velocity field and decomposition modeling reveal the underlying flood propagation with unprecedented detail as it traveled over 160 km from the drainage site to the margin, providing novel constraints on subglacial water pathways, drainage morphology, and links with basal sliding. The triggering SGLs continuously grew over 40 years and suddenly released decades of stored meltwater, demonstrating surface melting can impact dynamics well beyond melt production. We show these events are likely common and thus their cumulative impact on dynamics should be further evaluated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Non-intrusive reduced-order modeling for dynamical systems with spatially localized features

This work presents a non-intrusive reduced-order modeling framework for dynamical systems with spatially localized features characterized by slow singular value decay. The proposed approach builds upon two existing methodologies for reduced and full-order non-intrusive modeling, namely Operator Inference (OpInf) and sparse Full-Order Model (sFOM) inference. We decompose the domain into two complementary subdomains that exhibit fast and slow singular value decay. The dynamics of the subdomain exhibiting slow singular value decay are learned with sFOM while the dynamics with intrinsically low dimensionality on the complementary subdomain are learned with OpInf. The resulting, coupled OpInf-sFOM formulation leverages the computational efficiency of OpInf and the high resolution of sFOM, and thus enables fast non-intrusive predictions for conditions beyond those sampled in the training data set. A novel regularization technique with a closed-form solution based on the Gershgorin disk theorem is introduced to promote stable sFOM and OpInf models. We also provide a data-driven indicator for subdomain selection and ensure solution smoothness over the interface via a post-processing interpolation step. We evaluate the efficiency of the approach in terms of offline and online speedup through a quantitative, parametric computational cost analysis. We demonstrate the coupled OpInf-sFOM formulation for two test cases: a one-dimensional Burgers’ model for which accurate predictions beyond the span of the training snapshots are presented, and a two-dimensional parametric model for the Pine Island Glacier ice thickness dynamics, for which the OpInf-sFOM model achieves an average prediction error on the order of 1% with an online speedup factor of approximately 8$\times$ compared to the numerical simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗