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NASA NTRS2019

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 3: Sea Level Rise

The New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC, 2015) sea level rise projections provide the current scientific basis for New York City scientific decision making and planning, as reflected in, for example, the City's Climate Resiliency Design Guidelines. However, since the IPCC (2013) and NPCC (2015) reports, recent observations show mounting glacier and ice sheet losses leading to rising sea levels. Furthermore, new developments in modeling interactions between oceans, atmosphere, and ice sheets suggest the possibility of a significantly higher global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) by 2100 than previously anticipated, particularly under elevated greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Gornitz, Vivien M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

The Missing Economic Risks in Assessments of Climate Change Impacts

Economic assessments of the potential future risks of climate change have been omitting or grossly underestimating many of the most serious consequences for lives and livelihoods because these risks are difficult to quantify precisely and lie outside of human experience. Political and business leaders need to understand the scale of these ‘missing risks’ because they could have drastic and potentially catastrophic impacts on citizens, communities and companies. Scientists are growing in confidence about the evidence for the largest potential impacts of climate change and the rising probability that major thresholds in the Earth’s climate system will be breached as global mean surface temperature rises, particularly if warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial level. These impacts include: (1) Destabilisation of ice sheets and glaciers and consequent sea level rise. (2) Stronger tropical cyclones. (3) Extreme heat impacts. (4) More frequent and intense floods and droughts. (5) Disruptions to oceanic and atmospheric circulation. (6) Destruction of biodiversity and collapse of ecosystems. Many of these impacts will grow and occur concurrently across the world as global temperature climbs. Some of these impacts involve thresholds in the climate system beyond which major impacts accelerate, or become irreversible and unstoppable. When a threshold is breached, it might cause one or more other thresholds to be exceeded as well, leading to a cascade of impacts. Many of these impacts could exceed the capacity of human populations to adapt, and would significantly affect and disrupt the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions, if not billions, of people worldwide. These impacts would also undermine economic growth and development, exacerbate poverty and destabilise communities. Economic assessments fail to take account of the potential for large concurrent impacts across the world that would cause mass migration, displacement and conflict, with huge loss of life. Economic assessments that are expressed solely in terms of effects on output (e.g. gross domestic product), or that only extrapolate from past experience, or that use inappropriate discounting, do not provide a clear indication of the potential risks to lives and livelihoods. It is likely that there are additional risks that we are not yet anticipating simply because scientists have not yet detected their possibility, as we have entered a period of climate change that is unprecedented in human history. Some advances are being made in improving economic assessments of climate change impacts but much more progress is required if assessments are to offer reliable guidance for political and business leaders on the biggest risks. The lack of firm quantifications is not a reason to ignore these risks, and when the missing risks are taken into account, the case for strong and urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions becomes even more compelling.

DeFries, Ruth↗

NASA NTRS2022

Controls on Greenland Moulin Geometry and Evolution From the Moulin Shape Model

Nearly all meltwater from glaciers and ice sheets is routed englacially through moulins, which collectively comprise approximately 10–14% of the efficient englacial–subglacial hydrologic system. Therefore, the geometry and evolution of moulins has the potential to influence subglacial water pressure variations, ice motion, and the runoff hydrograph delivered to the ocean. We develop the Moulin Shape (MouSh) model, a time-evolving model of moulin geometry. MouSh models ice deformation around a moulin using both viscous and elastic rheologies and models melting within the moulin through heat dissipation from turbulent water flow, both above and below the water line. We force MouSh with idealized and realistic surface melt inputs. Our results show that variations in surface melt change the geometry of a moulin by approximately 30% daily and by over 100% seasonally. These size variations cause observable differences in moulin water storage capacity, moulin water levels, and subglacial channel size compared to a static, cylindrical moulin. Our results suggest that moulins are significant storage reservoirs for meltwater, with storage capacity and water levels varying over multiple timescales. Representing moulin geometry within subglacial hydrologic models would therefore improve their accuracy, especially over seasonal periods or in regions where overburden pressures are high.

Moulin↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Nature of Quaternary Climate Change

Dynamic interactions between atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere, driven by solar energy and modulated by atmospheric greenhouse gasses, volcanism, and plate tectonics produce substantial variations in Earth's climate over geologic time. Major Quaternary drivers of climate change include variations in Earth's orbital cycles, global temperature, natural atmospheric greenhouse gasses, and continental ice mass. Multiple abrupt climate perturbations with onsets of a century to decades have also occurred. Since the 1970s, geologically unprecedented rising levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gasses from fossil fuel combustion, industry, and agriculture have become the dominant contributors to rising global temperature, glacier and ice sheet losses, and sea level rise.

Solar variability↗

NASA NTRS2011

The ICESat-2 Mission: Concept, Pre-Launch Activities, and Opportunities

Ice sheet and sea level changes have been explicitly identified as a priority in the President's Climate Change Science Program, the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, the 4th Assessment Report of the IPee and other national and international policy documents. Following recommendations from the National Research Council for an ICESat follow-on mission, the ICESat-2 mission is now under development for launch in early 2016. The primary aims of the ICESat-2 mission are to continue measurements of sea-ice thickness change, and ice sheet elevation changes at scales from outlet glaciers to the entire ice sheet as established by ICES at. In contrast to ICES at, ICESat-2 will employ a 6-beam micro-pulse laser photon-counting approach. The current concept uses a high repetition rate (10 kHz; equivalent to 70 cm on the ground) low-power laser in conjunction with single-photon sensitive detectors to measure range using approximately 532nm (green) light. The concept will enable the generation of seasonal maps of ice sheet elevation of Greenland and Antarctica, monthly maps of sea ice thickness of the polar ocean, a dense map of land elevation (2 km track spacing at the equator after two years) enabling the determination of canopy height, as well as ocean heights. While the mission has been optimized for cryospheric science and vast amount of high precision elevation measurements taken over land and over the ocean as well as of the atmosphere will provide scientists with a wealth of opportunities to explore the utility of ICESat-2. Those will range from the retrieval of cloud properties, to river stages, to snow cover, to land use changes and more. The presentation will review the measurement concept and physical principles of ICESat-2, current and planned activities to assess instrument performance and develop geophysical algorithms, as well as potential opportunities outside the main objectives of ICESat-2.

Markus, Thorsten↗

NASA NTRS2002

Anaerobic Psychrophiles from Alaska, Antarctica, and Patagonia: Implications to Possible Life on Mars and Europa

Microorganisms preserved within the permafrost, glaciers, and polar ice sheets of planet Earth provide analogs for microbial life forms that may be encountered in ice or permafrost of Mars, Europa, Callisto, Ganymede, asteroids, comets or other frozen worlds in the Cosmos. The psychrophilic and psychrotolerant microbes of the terrestrial cryosphere help establish the thermal and temporal limitations of life on Earth and provide clues to where and how we should search for evidence of life elsewhere in the Universe. For this reason, the cold-loving microorganisms are directly relevant to Astrobiology. Cryopreserved microorganisms can remain viable (in deep anabiosis) in permafrost and ice for millions of years. Permafrost, ice wedges, pingos, glaciers, and polar ice sheets may contain intact ancient DNA, lipids, enzymes, proteins, genes, and even frozen and yet viable ancient microbiota. Some microorganisms carry out metabolic processes in water films and brine, acidic, or alkaline channels in permafrost or ice at temperatures far below 0 C. Complex microbial communities live in snow, ice-bubbles, cryoconite holes on glaciers and ancient microbial ecosystems are cryopreserved within the permafrost, glaciers, and polar caps. In the Astrobiology group of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama at Huntsville, we have employed advanced techniques for the isolation, culture, and phylogenetic analysis of many types of microbial extremophiles. We have also used the Environmental Scanning Electron Microscope to study the morphology, ultra-microstructure and chemical composition of microorganisms in ancient permafrost and ice. We discuss several interesting and novel anaerobic microorganisms that we have isolated and cultured from the Pleistocene ice of the Fox Tunnel of Alaska, guano of the Magellanic Penguin, deep-sea sediments from the vicinity of the Rainbow Hydrothermal Vent and enrichment cultures from ice of the Patriot Hills of Antarctica. The microbial extremophiles recovered from permafrost, ice, cold pools and deep-sea sediments may provide information relevant to the question of how and where we should search for evidence of extant or extinct microbial life elsewhere in the Cosmos.

Hoover, Richard B.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Anaerobic Psychrophiles from Alaska, Antarctica, and Patagonia: Implications to Possible Life on Mars and Europa

Microorganisms preserved within the permafrost, glaciers, and polar ice sheets of planet Earth provide analogs for microbial life forms that may be encountered in ice or permafrost of Mars, Europa, Callisto, Ganymede, asteroids, comets or other frozen worlds in the Cosmos. The psychrophilic and psychrotolerant microbes of the terrestrial cryosphere help establish the thermal and temporal limitations of life on Earth and provide clues to where and how we should search for evidence of life elsewhere in the Universe. For this reason, the cold-loving microorganisms are directly relevant to Astrobiology. Cryo-preserved microorganisms can remain viable (in deep anabiosis) in permafrost and ice for millions of years. Permafrost, ice wedges, pingos, glaciers, and polar ice sheets may contain intact ancient DNA, lipids, enzymes, proteins, genes, and even frozen and yet viable ancient microbiota. Some microorganisms carry out metabolic processes in water films and brine, acidic, or alkaline channels in permafrost or ice at temperatures far below 0 T. Complex microbial communities live in snow, ice-bubbles, cryoconite holes on glaciers and ancient microbial ecosystems are cryopreserved within the permafrost, glaciers, and polar caps. In the Astrobiology group of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama at Huntsville, we have employed advanced techniques for the isolation, culture, and phylogenetic analysis of many types of microbial extremophiles. We have also used the Environmental Scanning Electron Microscope to study the morphology, ultra-microstructure and chemical composition of microorganisms in ancient permafrost and ice. We discuss several interesting and novel anaerobic microorganisms that we have isolated and cultured from the Pleistocene ice of the Fox Tunnel of Alaska, guano of the Magellanic Penguin, deep sea sediments from the vicinity of the Rainbow Hydrothermal Vent and enrichment cultures from ice of the Patriot Hills of Antarctica. The microbial extremophiles recovered from permafrost, ice, cold pools and deep sea sediments may provide information relevant to the question of how and where we should search for evidence of extant or extinct microbial life elsewhere in the Cosmos.

Hoover, Richard B.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Ice sheet margins and ice shelves

The effect of climate warming on the size of ice sheet margins in polar regions is considered. Particular attention is given to the possibility of a rapid response to warming on the order of tens to hundreds of years. It is found that the early response of the polar regions to climate warming would be an increase in the area of summer melt on the ice sheets and ice shelves. For sufficiently large warming (5-10C) the delayed effects would include the breakup of the ice shelves by an increase in ice drainage rates, particularly from the ice sheets. On the basis of published data for periodic changes in the thickness and melting rates of the marine ice sheets and fjord glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, it is shown that the rate of retreat (or advance) of an ice sheet is primarily determined by: bedrock topography; the basal conditions of the grounded ice sheet; and the ice shelf condition downstream of the grounding line. A program of satellite and ground measurements to monitor the state of ice sheet equilibrium is recommended.

Thomas, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Theoretical Foundations of Remote Sensing for Glacier Assessment and Mapping

The international scientific community is actively engaged in assessing ice sheet and alpine glacier fluctuations at a variety of scales. The availability of stereoscopic, multitemporal, and multispectral satellite imagery from the optical wavelength regions of the electromagnetic spectrum has greatly increased our ability to assess glaciological conditions and map the cryosphere. There are, however, important issues and limitations associated with accurate satellite information extraction and mapping, as well as new opportunities for assessment and mapping that are all rooted in understanding the fundamentals of the radiation transfer cascade. We address the primary radiation transfer components, relate them to glacier dynamics and mapping, and summarize the analytical approaches that permit transformation of spectral variation into thematic and quantitative parameters. We also discuss the integration of satellite-derived information into numerical modeling approaches to facilitate understandings of glacier dynamics and causal mechanisms.

Remote Sensing↗

NASA NTRS2001

Using Climate Models to Evaluate Mechanisms of Glacial Inception

The initiation and subsequent growth of an ice sheet or large glacier is based on two primary factors: 1. Most fundamentally, a region must exist with a positive net snow accumulation, that is, cold season snowfall exceeds warm season snowmelt. Because snow can melt very rapidly, in a practical sense this probably means that little or no snow melt should occur in the warm season (mountain glaciers being one possible exception). 2. When sufficient ice builds in a region with a positive net snow accumulation, the ice will flow into adjoining regions with a negative mass balance. Feedbacks can also then arise between the emerging ice sheet and the overall climate, which, among other effects, may cause the mass balance in that region to turn positive. A key question is the relative importance of these two factors. In particular, is it possible for a large lowland region to experience a positive mass balance, such that the ice sheet can arise largely 'in-situ'? Or instead are uplands necessary, such that essentially mountain glaciers form first, and then, under the right conditions, grow and coalesce, eventually spreading out into the lowlands? This is probably the single most fundamental question to be addressed in the modeling of glacial inception. Other key questions then focus on how the (upland or low-land) positive mass balance is obtained at some times, but not others (the ice sheets are not continuously present). For Northern Hemisphere ice sheets in particular, what climatic conditions can lead to abundant winter snowfall in the Canadian Arctic and northern Labrador in conjunction with cool summertime conditions? Are both required, or will cool summer conditions alone suffice? Conversely, are a few years of abnormally heavy snowfall all that is required to trigger glacial inception? A major need at present is for carefully constructed climate model studies aimed at addressing these questions. A successful strategy will almost certainly require more than just a global model; while the global climate model might be necessary to properly simulate large-scale forcing, such models have insufficient spatial resolution to adequately address the roles of topography and the nature of the land surface. Necessary also is the use of a high-resolution regional climate model (in conjunction with a global model). Possible forcing mechanisms of Pleistocene ice ages are well known (e.g., orbital forcing; CO2 fluctuations) but we must understand and be able to successfully model the actual processes involved in glacial inception before we can fully understand the true roles played by these forcing mechanisms.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Importance of Understanding the Last Glacial Maximum for Climate Change

The last glacial maximum (LGM) at approximately 23–18k (k—thousand calendar years) provides an important contrast to our present and pre-industrial climate in a warming world. Global observational datasets of LGM land and sea surface conditions have been synthesized and present some interesting challenges both for providing another scenario for understanding climate change and for climate sensitivity. These challenges are ongoing, as data increase and modeling improves. By definition, the LGM is defined as the time during the last glacial interval in which maximum ice was sequestered in ice sheets as visible in the marine isotopic records. Maximum cooling is visible from pollen and macrofossil records 14C dated to this interval, and ice sheets and alpine glaciers are roughly at their maximum extent throughout the globe. The ice cores extracted from Greenland and Antarctica have given us high-resolution records of greenhouse gases, dust, and isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen which reveal the progression out of the LGM at 18k as climate warmed.

Peteet, Dorothy↗

NASA NTRS1991

Late Wisconsin and early holocene glacial history, inner Ross Embayment, Antarctica

Lateral drift sheets of outlet glaciers that pass through the Transantarctic Mountains constrain past changes of the huge Ross ice drainage system of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Drift stratigraphy suggests correlation of Reedy III (Reedy Glacier), Beardmore, Britannia (Hatherton/Darwin Glaciers), Ross Sea (McMurdo Sound), and younger (Terra Nova Bay) drifts; radiocarbon dates place the outer limits of Ross Sea drift in late Wisconsin time at 24,000 to 13,000 yr B.P. Outlet glacier profiles from these drifts constrain late Wisconsin ice sheet surface elevations. Within these constraint, two extreme late Wisconsin reconstructions are given of the Ross ice drainage system. Both show little elevation change of the polar plateau coincident with extensive ice shelf grounding along the inner Ross Embayment. However, in the central Ross Embayment, one reconstruction shows floating shelf ice, where as the other shows a grounded ice sheet. Massive late Wisconsin/Holocene recession of grounded ice from the western Ross Embayment, which was underway at 13,040 yr B.P. and completed by 6600 to 6020 yr B.P., was accompanied by little change in plateau ice levels inland of the Transantarctic Mountains.

Denton, George H.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance

Mass balance equation for glaciers; areal distribution and ice volumes; estimates of actual mass balance; loss by calving of icebergs; hydrological budget for Greenland; and temporal variations of Greenland mass balance are examined.

Reeh, N.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Understanding Sea Level Changes

Today more than 100 million people worldwide live on coastlines within one meter of mean sea level; any short-term or long-term sea level change relative to vertical ground motion is of great societal and economic concern. As palm-environment and historical data have clearly indicated the existence and prevalence of such changes in the past, new scientific information regarding to the nature and causes and a prediction capability are of utmost importance for the future. The 10-20 cm global sea-level rise recorded over the last century has been broadly attributed to two effects: (1) the steric effect (thermal expansion and salinity-density compensation of sea water) following global climate; (2) mass-budget changes due to a number of competing geophysical and hydrological processes in the Earth-atmosphere-hydrosphere-cryosphere system, including water exchange from polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers to the ocean, atmospheric water vapor and land hydrological variations, and anthropogenic effects such as water impoundment in artificial reservoirs and extraction of groundwater, all superimposed on the vertical motions of solid Earth due to tectonics, rebound of the mantle from past and present deglaciation, and other local ground motions. As remote-sensing tools, a number of space geodetic measurements of sea surface topography (e.g., TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason), ice mass (e.g., ICESat), time-variable gravity (e.g. GRACE), and ground motions (SLR, VLBI, GPS, InSAR, Laser altimetry, etc.) become directly relevant. Understanding sea level changes "anywhere, anytime" in a well-defined terrestrial reference frame in terms of climate change and interactions among ice masses, oceans, and the solid Earth, and being able to predict them, emerge as one of the scientific challenges in the Solid Earth Science Working Group (SESWG, 2003) conclusions.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

NASA NTRS2012

First Assessments of Predicted ICESat-2 Performance Using Aircraft Data

The Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) is a next-generation laser altimeter designed to continue key observations of ice sheet elevation change, sea ice freeboard, vegetation canopy height, earth surface elevation, and sea surface height. Scheduled for launch in mid-2016, ICESat-2 will use a high repetition rate (10 kHz), small footprint (10 m nominal ground diameter) laser, and a single-photon-sensitive detection strategy (photon counting) to measure precise range to the earth's surface. Using green light (532 nm), the six beams of ICESat-2 will provide improved spatial coverage compared with the single beam of ICESat, while the differences in transmit energy among the beams provide a large dynamic range. The six beams are arranged into three pairs of beams which allow slopes to measured on an orbit-by-orbit basis. In order to evaluate models of predicted ICESat-2 performance and provide ICESat-2-like data for algorithm development, an airborne ICESat-2 simulator was developed and first flown in 2010. This simulator, the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL) was most recently deployed to Iceland in April 2012 and collected approx 85 hours of science data over land ice, sea ice, and calibration targets. MABEL uses a similar photon-counting measurement strategy to what will be used on ICESat-2. MABEL collects data in 16 green channels and an additional 8 channels in the infrared aligned across the direction of flight. By using NASA's ER-2 aircraft flying at 20km altitude, MABEL flies as close to space as is practical, and collects data through approx 95% of the atmosphere. We present background on the MABEL instrument, and data from the April 2012 deployment to Iceland. Among the 13 MABEL flights, we collected data over the Greenland ice sheet interior and outlet glaciers in the southwest and western Greenland, sea ice data over the Nares Strait and Greenland Sea, and a number of small glaciers and ice caps in Iceland and Svalbard. Several of the flights were coincident in time and space with NASA's Operation IceBridge, which provides an independent data set for validation. MABEL also collected data along CryoSat track 10482 in north central Greenland approximately one month after CryoSat passed overhead.

Neumann, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS1993

Basal scarp, paleoglacier, and fissure flows of Elysium Mons, Mars

Geological mapping at 1:500,000 scale of the Granicus Valles area west of Elysium Mons (MTM quadrangles 30227, 30222, and 25227) indicates that (1) the oldest deposits in the area are Upper Hesperian lavas of the Elysium shield; (2) a basal scarp formed by Early Amazonian faulting around the northwest flank of Elysium Mons triggered growth of Elysium Fossae; (3) a glacier or an ice sheet west and north of the scarp was of long duration; (4) water and lava flows from Elysium Fossae became dominant during and after glacial recession; and (5) the last volcanic-fissure-related flows resulted in linear chains of small domes on the Elysium shield.

Chapman, Mary G.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Understanding our Changing Planet: NASA's Earth Science Enterprise

NASA has been studying the Earth and its changing environment by observing the atmosphere, oceans, land, ice, and snow and their influence on climate and weather since the agency's creation. This study has lead to a new approach to understanding the interaction of the Earth's systems, Earth System Science. The Earth Science Enterprise, NASA's comprehensive program for Earth System Science, uses satellites and other tools to intensively study the Earth. The Earth Science Enterprise has three main components: (1) a series of Earth-observing satellites, (2) an advanced data system and (3) teams of scientist who study the data. Key areas of study include: (1) clouds, (2) water and energy cycles, (3) oceans, (4) chemistry of the atmosphere, (5) land surface, water and ecosystems processes; (6) glaciers and polar ice sheets, and (7) the solid earth.

Forehand, Lon↗

NASA NTRS2000

Antarctic Rebound and the Time-Dependence of the Earth's Shape

Great strides have been made during the past 30 years in refining models of the last global glaciation. The refinements draw upon a vastly expanded relative sea level and sedimentary core record. Furthermore, we now possess a sharpened understanding of the mechanisms that drive climate changes associated with deglaciation. Some 15 years ago, using only 5.5 years of ranging data, analyses of the drift in LAGEOS I node acceleration was used to infer that postglacial rebound was responsible for a secular change in the Earth's ellipsoidal shape (Yoder et al., .1983]. Today there exists a wealth of geodynamics satellite orbit data that constrain the secular time-dependence of the Earth's shape and low order gravity field, which includes mass redistribution from present-day glacier and great ice sheet imbalance and from postglacial rebound. We have shown that an unambiguous determination of the secular variation in the Earth's pear shaped harmonic (l = 3, m = 0) might provide information that bears on the present-day mass balance of Antarctica. This issue is revisited in light of new constraints on glacial loading during the late-Pleistocene and Holocene. An especially critical issue for the interpretation of secular odd degree zonal harmonics, l = 3 to 7, is the timing and magnitude of the deglaciation of Antarctica from Last Glacial Maximum. We explore ways in which the recovery of secular variation in both zonal and non-zonal harmonics for l = 2 through 7 can improve constraints on both rebound and present-day ice sheet balance.

Ivins, Erik R.↗