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Crowdsourcing the Frontier: Advancing Hybrid Physics‐ML Climate Simulation via a $\$$50,000 Kaggle Competition
Subgrid machine-learning (machine learning [ML]) parameterizations have the potential to introduce a new generation of climate models that incorporate the effects of higher-resolution physics without incurring the prohibitive computational cost associated with more explicit physics-based simulations. However, important issues, ranging from online instability to inconsistent online performance, have limited their operational use for long-term climate projections. To more rapidly drive progress in solving these issues, domain scientists and ML researchers opened up the offline aspect of this problem to the broader ML and data science community with the release of ClimSim, a NeurIPS Data sets and Benchmarks publication, and an associated Kaggle competition. This paper reports on the downstream results of the Kaggle competition by coupling emulators inspired by the winning teams' architectures to an interactive climate model (including full cloud microphysics, a regime historically prone to online instability) and systematically evaluating their online performance. Our results demonstrate that online stability in the low-resolution real-geography setting is reproducible across multiple diverse architectures, which we consider a key milestone. All tested architectures exhibit strikingly similar offline and online biases, though their responses to architecture-agnostic design choices (e.g., expanding the list of input variables) can differ significantly. Multiple Kaggle-inspired architectures achieve state-of-the-art results on certain metrics such as zonal mean bias patterns and global Root Mean Squared Error, indicating that crowdsourcing the essence of the offline problem is one path to improving online performance in hybrid physics-AI climate simulation.
Aerodynamic integration produces a vehicle shape with a negative drag coefficient
Negative drag coefficients are normally associated with a vessel outfitted with a sail to extract energy from the wind and propel the vehicle forward. Therefore, the notion of a heavy vehicle, that is, a semi truck, that generates negative aerodynamic drag without a sail or any external appendages may seem implausible, especially given the fact that these vehicles have some of the largest drag coefficients on the road today. However, using both wind tunnel measurements and computational fluid dynamics simulations, we demonstrate aerodynamically integrated vehicle shapes that generate negative body-axis drag in a crosswind as a result of large negative frontal pressures that effectively “pull” the vehicle forward against the wind, much like a sailboat. While negative body-axis drag exists only for wind yaw angles above a certain analytical threshold, the negative frontal pressures exist at smaller yaw angles and subsequently produce body-axis drag coefficients that are significantly less than those of modern heavy vehicles. The application of this aerodynamic phenomenon to the heavy vehicle industry would produce sizable reductions in petroleum use throughout the United States.
Simulating regional workforce impacts of decarbonizing integrated steelmaking
Global efforts to mitigate climate change are increasing pressure on heavy manufacturing industries to decarbonize production. The iron and steel industry is responsible for 7% of CO 2 emissions globally (2% in the United States) and is often a major employer in the regions where iron and steel is produced. Understanding the future prospects for workers in regions with high CO 2 emitting industries—including impacts of phasing out or evolving such industries—will be critical for informing regional economic and clean energy strategies. We simulate the impact of an “in-place” transition that replaces today’s integrated production with direct reduced iron (DRI) used in electric arc furnaces (EAFs), using Southwest Pennsylvania as an application of our generalizable approach. Our results suggest that the integrated steelmaking workforce today has the skills, knowledge, and abilities (SKAs) to fill over 95% of all jobs required by DRI/EAF facilities, but the number of jobs is only 25% of those at integrated plants. We also find that some occupational groups have greater general transferability into the broader job market, while other groups, such as production workers, are ill-equipped today based on current SKAs to transition out of the iron and steel industry. Our methodology further suggests factors that limit transitions: Around 85% of occupations are more limited by missing skills, while 15% are more limited by insufficient wages. These results may help to improve the design of social policy and the targeting of retraining programs, while the simulation approach can be readily adapted for other regions and industries.
Pre- and post-launch operation of the Resolve soft X-ray spectrometer onboard the XRISM satellite
Resolve is a high-resolution X-ray spectrometer onboard the X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM), launched on September 6 (UT), 2023. The Resolve has performed better than its required spectral resolution (7 eV at full width at half maximum at 6 keV), both on the ground and in orbit, and has been confirmed to have comparable performance to the soft X-ray spectrometer onboard the ASTRO-H (Hitomi) satellite. The focal plane is composed of an array of microcalorimeter detectors operated at 50 mK to achieve the required energy resolution, and the cooling system is designed to satisfy the lifetime requirement of over 3 years. The focal plane and cooling system are contained in a vacuum-insulated dewar. The cooling system is equipped with a two-stage adiabatic demagnetization refrigerator (ADR) that uses superfluid liquid helium (LHe) as its heat sink. The system includes a third ADR stage that can be used to provide the heat sink when the helium is exhausted. A Joule–Thomson cooler and several two-stage Stirling coolers are used to reduce the heat load on the LHe. During pre-launch operations, we carried out a superfluid LHe top-off operation. The resultant amount of LHe onboard Resolve was over 35 L before launch, which is sufficient to meet the lifetime requirement. During post-launch operation, the LHe vent valve was opened 5 min after launch during rocket acceleration, and the cryocoolers were turned on after several orbits, as planned, which established stable cooling within the dewar. Pre- and post-launch operations for the Resolve instrument were planned around multiple constraints from launch vehicle operations; all were successfully completed, and the launch requirements were fully met.
Analyses of 1994 Typhoons in the Taiwan Region Using Satellite Data
Taiwan is situated in the prevalent typhoon track in the northwestern Pacific. On average, about one third of the island total annual precipitation is due to typhoons, with the other two third being contributed by the summer monsoon, or Meiyu, and wintertime large scale frontal rainfall. While the typhoons bring the needed moisture for agricultural consumption and industrial utilization, heavy rainfall associated with typhoons often result in large scale flooding and land slide. The prediction of the typhoon track and its severity is therefore a high priority topic both for operation and research. The severity of a typhoon can be defined in terms of the wind strength and the moisture content. The Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) on board of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites measures microwave radiation in 19.4, 22.2, 37, and 85.5 GHz. These measurements provide an opportunity to estimate parameters such as surface wind speed, water vapor and cloud water contents, and rainfall rate over oceans. In 1994, Taiwan experienced an above normal frequency of typhoon hits, five typhoons hit the island in two months. In this report, estimates of the moisture content of these typhoons are made based on the SSM/I measurements. An assessment of the relative strength of the typhoons are made with analyzed data.
Apparatus and process of retrofitting a combined cycle power plant
A process for retrofitting an electric power plant that uses two 60 Hertz large frame heavy duty industrial gas turbine engines to drive electric generators and produce electricity, where each of the two industrial engines can produce up to 350 MW of output power. The process replaces the two 350 MW industrial engines with one twin spool industrial gas turbine engine that is capable of producing at least 700 MW of output power. Thus, two prior art industrial engines can be replaced with one industrial engine that can produce power equal to the two prior art industrial engines.
Linear dynamic coupling in geared rotor systems
The effects of high frequency oscillations caused by the gear mesh, on components of a geared system that can be modeled as rigid discs are analyzed using linear dynamic coupling terms. The coupled, nonlinear equations of motion for a disc attached to a rotating shaft are presented. The results of a trial problem analysis show that the inclusion of the linear dynamic coupling terms can produce significant changes in the predicted response of geared rotor systems, and that the produced sideband responses are greater than the unbalanced response. The method is useful in designing gear drives for heavy-lift helicopters, industrial speed reducers, naval propulsion systems, and heavy off-road equipment.
Stable immobilized amine sorbents for heavy metal and REE removal from industrial wastewaters
Stable and immobilized amine sorbents can simultaneously remove/recover cationic and oxyanionic toxic metals plus valuable rare earth elements from industrial and mining effluents prior to discharging into environmental water systems.<
Lead tolerance and bioremoval by four strains of green algae from Nigerian fish ponds
Heavy metals from industry pose threats to human and environmental health. Microalgae are prime candidates to remove heavy metals from water and soil due to their metal-binding affinities, high growth rates, and contamination tolerance. Strain selection and composition of resulting contaminated biomass must be considered for downstream processing. In this study, we assessed the ability of four microalgae strains (Chlorophyceae) that were isolated from contaminated Nigerian fish ponds to take up dissolved lead at environmentally relevant concentrations (<0.05 mg L -1 – WHO standard). In a microplate assay, all strains grew in the presence of lead, tolerating concentrations up to 60 ppm, though the addition of dissolved lead affected the growth of the four strains. In a photobioreactor assay, all strains demonstrated the ability to take up dissolved lead, with removal efficiencies ranging from 86 to 93%. The concentrations of lead in contaminated biomass, removal efficiencies, and bioconcentration factors were greatest in one of the isolates Chlorella sp. MOW 12. Our results reinforce the fact that live microalgae have a greater biosorption capacity. Lead recovery from freeze-dried biomass using five different reagents showed that a 0.1 M hydrochloric acid solution was the most effective, with 83.4% recovery. We also showed that presence of lead in the culture medium resulted in an increase in the quantity of protein in the biomass. Elemental analysis of lead-bound biomass showed an increase in elements including boron and copper and a decrease in cobalt and sodium. Synergystic and antagonystic effect in uptake of other elements was strain specific, suggesting the possibility of tailored wastewater treatments depending on specific requirements.
Dynamic Instructions for Nuclear Power Plant Field Workers
Most tasks conducted at a nuclear power plant are guided by a procedure in one way or another. Some tasks must be conducted by strictly adhering to the prescribed steps, while other tasks use the procedures as a reference guide. Traditionally, the procedure process in the nuclear industry has been paper heavy. In recent years however, the nuclear industry has considered adopting more dynamic solutions to improve the efficiency of their work management process, advance human and system performance, as well as reduce the cost of handling paper copies of documentation. As a first step, many nuclear utilities in the U.S. deployed solutions that electronically route the documents through the review and approval processes and where the worker in the field uses an electronic copy of the instruction or procedure on a handheld device. These electronic copies are very similar to the format of the paper instruction but do have some additional capabilities to capture recorded input and notes.
A preliminary investigation of the potential applicability of the IPAD system to non-aerospace industry
A study of the applicability of the planned Integrated Programs for Aerospace-Vehicle Design (IPAD) system to the design activities of non-aerospace industries was carried out. It was determined that IPAD could be of significant benefit to a number of industries, with the most likely users being the heavy construction and automotive industries. Two additional short studies were initiated to investigate the possible impact of IPAD on a national energy program and on urban and regional planning activities of local and state governments. These initial studies indicated the possibility of significant payoff in these areas and the need for further investigations. It was also determined that utilization of IPAD by non-aerospace industries will probably involve a long stepwise process, since these industries maintain a policy of gradual introduction of new technology.
Transportation concepts for space industrialization
Space shuttle and heavy lift launch vehicle concepts are described with attention to transportation cost trends. Chemical (LOX/LH2), nuclear, and electric propulsion systems are considered. Suggested space shuttle projects include the support of manned geosynchronous missions and the transfer of bulk cargo and large-delicate space structures from fabrication/assembly orbits to their operational locations. It is thought that development of the space shuttle will stimulate interest in space industrialization.
Fine Gradient Electrode and Micro Porous Layer Structures for Improved Heavy Duty Fuel Cells (Final Report)
The commercial deployment of Heavy Duty Fuel Cells(HDFC) for applications such as large trucks (for example, Class 8 capable of carrying 50,000 lb. loads) depends vitally on achieving high efficiency and durability at reasonable costs. Furthermore, the HDFC must operate under practical conditions such as with fuel and air impurities, multiple stop-start cycles, and under the extremes of climate our planet offers – from hot and cold to dry and wet. These conditions place a premium on the stability and utilization of the materials comprising the membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs) powering the fuel cell. and the current catalysts, MicroPorous Layers, and Electrode structures and additives are insufficient for these needs. In Phase I Pajarito and Advent will develop durable electrocatalysts, MicroPorous Layer and electrode additives, and electrode structures for heavy duty fuel cells designed for zero-emission long-haul trucking. The electrocatalyst products are designed to solve the challenging durability and performance needs of fuel cells designed for long life and high efficiency through a combination of uniquely structured designed catalysts as well as new MicroPorous Layers (MPLs) and electrode structure additives. These improved materials will provide Pajarito both an expanded commercial opportunity in electrocatalysts, as well as new markets for MPL and electrode additives. The resulting public benefits include improved economics of fuel cells, a leading zero-emission technology for mobility, as well as reduced reliance on the critical minerals and metals used in the heavy-duty trucks industry. Possible follow-up Phase II and III projects would add full MEA products based on the Phase I efforts catalysts and additives, with full system validation by leading Fuel Cell Truck developers.
Heavy-Duty Rescue Straps For Coveralls
New type of strap on coveralls helps rescuers lift victims of industrial accidents. Made of heavy twill. New material, 1 in. wide and has breaking strength of 600 lb, sewn to coveralls with polyester thread in box "X" stitching. Reinforcing nylon webbing, 1 3/4 in. wide sewn with strap at attachment points.
Performance of concrete under accelerated physical salt attack and carbonation
Conventional testing of physical salt attack (PSA) on concrete does not consider concomitant factors that may exist in service and alter the mechanisms and kinetics of PSA. This study adopted a combined testing approach where concrete was concurrently investigated under accelerated PSA and carbonation, simulating elements serving in heavy traffic and industrial zones, while implementing ambient conditions similar to that in geographic locations with previous cases of PSA. Based on the tested mixture design parameters [water-to-binder ratio, cement type, and supplementary cementitious materials], potential performance improvement and risks were identified. Thermal, mineralogical, and microscopy analyses elucidated the co-occurrence of complex degradation processes in concrete subjected to accelerated PSA and carbonation, which were distinctive from that induced by the single-factor PSA exposure. The synoptic results from this study may informatively improve guidance on mixture design of concrete when dual exposure to PSA and carbonation is expected in the field.
Proceedings of the 20th Automotive Technology Development Contractors' Coordination Meeting
Thirty-four papers are included which cover the following topics: stirling technology, gas turbines, ceramics, heavy duty transport, industry perspectives, and alternative fuels.