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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
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NASA NTRS2014

Temporal Variability of Upper-level Winds at the Eastern Range, Western Range and Wallops Flight Facility

Space launch vehicle commit-to-launch decisions include an assessment of the upper-level (UL) atmospheric wind environment to assess the vehicle's controllability and structural integrity during ascent. These assessments occur at predetermined times during the launch countdown based on measured wind data obtained prior to the assessment. However, the pre-launch measured winds may not represent the wind environment during the vehicle ascent. Uncertainty in the UL winds over the time period between the assessment and launch can be mitigated by a statistical analysis of wind change over time periods of interest using historical data from the launch range. Without historical data, theoretical wind models must be used, which can result in inaccurate wind placards that misrepresent launch availability. Using an overconservative model could result in overly restrictive vehicle wind placards, thus potentially reducing launch availability. Conversely, using an under-conservative model could result in launching into winds that might damage or destroy the vehicle. A large sample of measured wind profiles best characterizes the wind change environment. These historical databases consist of a certain number of wind pairs, where two wind profile measurements spaced by the time period of interest define a pair.

Decker, Ryan K.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Error Estimation of An Ensemble Statistical Seasonal Precipitation Prediction Model

This NASA Technical Memorandum describes an optimal ensemble canonical correlation forecasting model for seasonal precipitation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. Since new CCA scheme is derived for continuous fields of predictor and predictand, an area-factor is automatically included. Thus our model is an improvement of the spectral CCA scheme of Barnett and Preisendorfer. The improvements include (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States (US) precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST). The US Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST is used as the predictor's historical data. The US National Center for Environmental Prediction's optimally interpolated precipitation (1951-2000) is used as the predictand's historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the new ensemble canonical correlation scheme renders a reasonable forecasting skill. For example, when using September-October-November SST to predict the next season December-January-February precipitation, the spatial pattern correlation between the observed and predicted are positive in 46 years among the 50 years of experiments. The positive correlations are close to or greater than 0.4 in 29 years, which indicates excellent performance of the forecasting model. The forecasting skill can be further enhanced when several predictors are used.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗
NASA NTRS2022

SatNet: A Benchmark for Satellite Scheduling Optimization

Satellites provide essential services such as networking and weather tracking, and the number of near-earth and deep space satellites are expected to grow rapidly in the coming years. Communications with terrestrial ground stations is one of the critical functionalities of any space mission. Satellite scheduling is a problem that has been scientifically investigated since the 1970s. A central aspect of this problem is the need to consider resource contention and satellite visibility constraints as they require line of sight. Due to the combinatorial nature of the problem, prior solutions such as linear programs and evolutionary algorithms require extensive compute capabilities to output a feasible schedule for each scenario. Machine learning based scheduling can provide an alternative solution by training a model with historical data and generating a schedule quickly with model inference. We present SatNet, a benchmark for satellite scheduling optimization based on historical data from the NASA Deep Space Network. We propose formulation of the satellite scheduling problem as a Markov Decision Process and use reinforcement learning (RL) policies to generate schedules. The nature of constraints imposed by SatNet differ from other combinatorial optimization problems such as vehicle routing studied in prior literature. Our initial results indicate that RL is an alternative optimization approach that can generate candidate solutions of comparable quality to existing state-of-the-practice results. However, we also find that RL policies overfit to the training dataset and do not generalize well to new data, thereby necessitating continued research on reusable and generalizable agents.

Wilson, Brian↗
NASA NTRS2004

Using Fuzzy Clustering for Real-time Space Flight Safety

To ensure space flight safety, it is necessary to monitor myriad sensor readings on the ground and in flight. Since a space shuttle has many sensors, monitoring data and drawing conclusions from information contained within the data in real time is challenging. The nature of the information can be critical to the success of the mission and safety of the crew and therefore, must be processed with minimal data-processing time. Data analysis algorithms could be used to synthesize sensor readings and compare data associated with normal operation with the data obtained that contain fault patterns to draw conclusions. Detecting abnormal operation during early stages in the transition from safe to unsafe operation requires a large amount of historical data that can be categorized into different classes (non-risk, risk). Even though the 40 years of shuttle flight program has accumulated volumes of historical data, these data don t comprehensively represent all possible fault patterns since fault patterns are usually unknown before the fault occurs. This paper presents a method that uses a similarity measure between fuzzy clusters to detect possible faults in real time. A clustering technique based on a fuzzy equivalence relation is used to characterize temporal data. Data collected during an initial time period are separated into clusters. These clusters are characterized by their centroids. Clusters formed during subsequent time periods are either merged with an existing cluster or added to the cluster list. The resulting list of cluster centroids, called a cluster group, characterizes the behavior of a particular set of temporal data. The degree to which new clusters formed in a subsequent time period are similar to the cluster group is characterized by a similarity measure, q. This method is applied to downlink data from Columbia flights. The results show that this technique can detect an unexpected fault that has not been present in the training data set.

Lee, Charles↗
NASA NTRS2020

Benefit Assessment of the Integrated Demand Management Concept for Multiple New York Metroplex Airports

Benefits of the Integrated Demand Management (IDM) concept were assessed utilizing a newly developed automated simulation capability called ‘Traffic Management Initiative Automated Simulation (TMIAutoSim).’ The IDM concept focuses on improving traffic flow management (TFM) by coordinating the FAA’s strategic Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) with its more tactical Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) system. The IDM concept leverages a new TFMS capability called Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) to strategically pre-condition traffic demand flowing into a TBFM-managed arrival environment, where TBFM is responsible for tactically managing traffic by generating precise arrival schedules. The IDM concept was developed over a multi-year effort, focusing on solving New York metroplex airport arrival problems. TMIAutoSim closely mimics NASA’s high-fidelity simulation capabilities while enabling more data to be collected at higher speed. Using this new capability, the IDM concept was evaluated using realistic traffic across various weather scenarios. Six representative weather days were selected after clustering three months of historical data. For those selected six days, Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) and LaGuardia Airport (LGA) arrival traffic scenarios were developed. For each selected day, the historical data were analyzed to accurately simulate actual operations and the weather impact of the day. The current day operations and the IDM concept operations were simulated for the same weather scenarios and the results were compared. The selected six days were categorized into two groups: ‘clear weather’ for days without Ground Delay Programs (GDP) and ‘convective weather’ for days with GDP and significant weather around New York metroplex airports. For the clear weather scenarios, IDM operations reduced last minute, unanticipated departure delays for short-haul flights within TBFM control boundaries with minimal to no impact on throughput and total delay. For the convective weather scenarios, IDM significantly reduced delays and increased throughput to the destination airports.

Traffic Management Initiative Automated Simulation↗
NASA NTRS2017

Models of Sector Flows Under Local, Regional and Airport Weather Constraints

Recently, the ATM community has made important progress in collaborative trajectory management through the introduction of a new FAA traffic management initiative called a Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP). FAA can use CTOPs to manage air traffic under multiple constraints (manifested as flow constrained areas or FCAs) in the system, and it allows flight operators to indicate their preferences for routing and delay options. CTOPs also permits better management of the overall trajectory of flights by considering both routing and departure delay options simultaneously. However, adoption of CTOPs in airspace has been hampered by many factors that include challenges in how to identify constrained areas and how to set rates for the FCAs. Decision support tools providing assistance would be particularly helpful in effective use of CTOPs. Such DSTs tools would need models of demand and capacity in the presence of multiple constraints. This study examines different approaches to using historical data to create and validate models of maximum flows in sectors and other airspace regions in the presence of multiple constraints. A challenge in creating an empirical model of flows under multiple constraints is a lack of sufficient historical data that captures diverse situations involving combinations of multiple constraints especially those with severe weather. The approach taken here to deal with this is two-fold. First, we create a generalized sector model encompassing multiple sectors rather than individual sectors in order to increase the amount of data used for creating the model by an order of magnitude. Secondly, we decompose the problem so that the amount of data needed is reduced. This involves creating a baseline demand model plus a separate weather constrained flow reduction model and then composing these into a single integrated model. A nominal demand model is a flow model (gdem) in the presence of clear local weather. This defines the flow as a function of weather constraints in neighboring regions, airport constraints and weather in locations that can cause re-routes to the location of interest. A weather constrained flow reduction model (fwx-red) is a model of reduction in baseline counts as a function of local weather. Because the number of independent variables associated with each of the two decomposed models is smaller than that with a single model, need for amount of data is reduced. Finally, a composite model that combines these two can be represented as fwx-red (gdem(e), l) where e represents non-local constraints and l represents local weather. The approaches studied to developing these models are divided into three categories: (1) Point estimation models (2) Empirical models (3) Theoretical models. Errors in predictions of these different types of models have been estimated. In situations when there is abundant data, point estimation models tend to be very accurate. In contrast, empirical models do better than theoretical models when there is some data available. The biggest benefit of theoretical models is their general applicability in wider range situations once the degree of accuracy of these has been established.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗
NASA NTRS2017

Models of Sector Aircraft Counts in the Presence of Local, Regional and Airport Constraints

Recently, the ATM community has made important progress in collaborative trajectory management through the introduction of a new FAA traffic management initiative called a Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP). FAA can use CTOPs to manage air traffic under multiple constraints (manifested as flow constrained areas or FCAs) in the system, and it allows flight operators to indicate their preferences for routing and delay options. CTOPs also permits better management of the overall trajectory of flights by considering both routing and departure delay options simultaneously. However, adoption of CTOPs in airspace has been hampered by many factors that include challenges in how to identify constrained areas and how to set rates for the FCAs. Decision support tools providing assistance would be particularly helpful in effective use of CTOPs. Such DSTs tools would need models of demand and capacity in the presence of multiple constraints. This study examines different approaches to using historical data to create and validate models of maximum flows in sectors and other airspace regions in the presence of multiple constraints. A challenge in creating an empirical model of flows under multiple constraints is a lack of sufficient historical data that captures diverse situations involving combinations of multiple constraints especially those with severe weather. The approach taken here to deal with this is two-fold. First, we create a generalized sector model encompassing multiple sectors rather than individual sectors in order to increase the amount of data used for creating the model by an order of magnitude. Secondly, we decompose the problem so that the amount of data needed is reduced. This involves creating a baseline demand model plus a separate weather constrained flow reduction model and then composing these into a single integrated model. A nominal demand model is a flow model (gdem) in the presence of clear local weather. This defines the flow as a function of weather constraints in neighboring regions, airport constraints and weather in locations that can cause re-routes to the location of interest. A weather constrained flow reduction model (fwx-red) is a model of reduction in baseline counts as a function of local weather. Because the number of independent variables associated with each of the two decomposed models is smaller than that with a single model, need for amount of data is reduced. Finally, a composite model that combines these two can be represented as fwx-red (gdem(e), l) where e represents non-local constraints and l represents local weather. The approaches studied to developing these models are divided into three categories: (1) Point estimation models (2) Empirical models (3) Theoretical models. Errors in predictions of these different types of models have been estimated. In situations when there is abundant data, point estimation models tend to be very accurate. In contrast, empirical models do better than theoretical models when there is some data available. The biggest benefit of theoretical models is their general applicability in wider range situations once the degree of accuracy of these has been established.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗
NASA NTRS1988

Winds aloft statistical analysis in support of day of launch Shuttle systems evaluation

In connection with the development of the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) for utilization by the Launch Systems Evaluation Advisory Team (LSEAT), requirements have been established to expand the pre-launch analysis of winds aloft for the Space Shuttle. Statistical analyses developed for the system include: comparison of pre-launch wind component profiles to wind component extremes at each altitude calculated from launch site historical data; conditional probability ellipses for wind vectors at a future time given the wind vector at an initial time; comparison of observed extreme wind shear and associated wind speed with launch site historical data utilizing the bivariate extreme value (Gumbel) distribution; estimation of extremes of wind speed or wind shear at a future time given the extremes of either variable at an initial time, utilizing the conditional extreme value distribution; power spectrum analysis for tracking wind perturbation energy in sequential pre-launch Jimsphere wind profiles.

Adelfang, S. I.↗
NASA NTRS2016

California Reservoir Inflow Projections Using a Hybrid EMD-Matalas Method

Inflow projections provide scenarios for future water availability and are integral to operational reservoir management. They can aid water practitioners in decision-making for conservation efforts, multiyear storage retention, managing flood risk, downstream water releases, and regional growth planning. However, conventional methods are often limited in terms of their ability to incorporate non-stationarity, long run persistence, and the cross-correlation of multiple series in a region. This research aims to address these issues with a hybrid approach that integrates Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) with the Matalas multisite generation method. Multiple long-run inflows were examined for the Shasta/Trinity Reservoirs and Oroville Reservoir of California. EMD is used to decompose each inflow series into a set of independent intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) that have different timescales and frequencies. These IMFs were grouped into intradecadal (less-than- 10-year average periodicity) and interdecadal (greater-than-10-year average periodicity) series for each site. The IMF projections at each site were then combined to produce replicates of the historical data. This preserves the correlation structure of the intra- and interdecadal components of the series. The hybrid EMD-Matalas method was compared to a traditional autoregressive lag-one model. Both methods were found to retain the statistical characteristics of the historical data. However, the EMD-Matalas method retained the multiyear wet and dry periods to a greater degree. This was examined by comparing the 5-year and 10-year sums from the traditional model with the hybrid EMD-Matalas model. An advantage of the EMD-Matalas method is the ability to explicitly incorporate modes of non-stationary long-run persistence often associated with large-scale climate drivers such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This contributes to scenario planning that may be particularly important for managing multiyear low flow periods.

inflow projections↗
NASA NTRS2016

An Integrated Gate Turnaround Management Concept Leveraging Big Data/Analytics for NAS Performance Improvements

The Integrated Gate Turnaround Management (IGTM) concept was developed to improve the gate turnaround performance at the airport by leveraging relevant historical data to support optimization of airport gate operations, which include: taxi to the gate, gate services, push back, taxi to the runway, and takeoff, based on available resources, constraints, and uncertainties. By analyzing events of gate operations, primary performance dependent attributes of these events were identified for the historical data analysis such that performance models can be developed based on uncertainties to support descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive functions. A system architecture was developed to examine system requirements in support of such a concept. An IGTM prototype was developed to demonstrate the concept using a distributed network and collaborative decision tools for stakeholders to meet on time pushback performance under uncertainties.

Big Data and Net-enabled ATM↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Support Database System for Integrated System Health Management (ISHM)

The development, deployment, operation and maintenance of Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) applications require the storage and processing of tremendous amounts of low-level data. This data must be shared in a secure and cost-effective manner between developers, and processed within several heterogeneous architectures. Modern database technology allows this data to be organized efficiently, while ensuring the integrity and security of the data. The extensibility and interoperability of the current database technologies also allows for the creation of an associated support database system. A support database system provides additional capabilities by building applications on top of the database structure. These applications can then be used to support the various technologies in an ISHM architecture. This presentation and paper propose a detailed structure and application description for a support database system, called the Health Assessment Database System (HADS). The HADS provides a shared context for organizing and distributing data as well as a definition of the applications that provide the required data-driven support to ISHM. This approach provides another powerful tool for ISHM developers, while also enabling novel functionality. This functionality includes: automated firmware updating and deployment, algorithm development assistance and electronic datasheet generation. The architecture for the HADS has been developed as part of the ISHM toolset at Stennis Space Center for rocket engine testing. A detailed implementation has begun for the Methane Thruster Testbed Project (MTTP) in order to assist in developing health assessment and anomaly detection algorithms for ISHM. The structure of this implementation is shown in Figure 1. The database structure consists of three primary components: the system hierarchy model, the historical data archive and the firmware codebase. The system hierarchy model replicates the physical relationships between system elements to provide the logical context for the database. The historical data archive provides a common repository for sensor data that can be shared between developers and applications. The firmware codebase is used by the developer to organize the intelligent element firmware into atomic units which can be assembled into complete firmware for specific elements.

FROM↗
NASA NTRS2016

An Integrated Gate Turnaround Management Concept Leveraging Big Data Analytics for NAS Performance Improvements

"Gate Turnaround" plays a key role in the National Air Space (NAS) gate-to-gate performance by receiving aircraft when they reach their destination airport, and delivering aircraft into the NAS upon departing from the gate and subsequent takeoff. The time spent at the gate in meeting the planned departure time is influenced by many factors and often with considerable uncertainties. Uncertainties such as weather, early or late arrivals, disembarking and boarding passengers, unloading/reloading cargo, aircraft logistics/maintenance services and ground handling, traffic in ramp and movement areas for taxi-in and taxi-out, and departure queue management for takeoff are likely encountered on the daily basis. The Integrated Gate Turnaround Management (IGTM) concept is leveraging relevant historical data to support optimization of the gate operations, which include arrival, at the gate, departure based on constraints (e.g., available gates at the arrival, ground crew and equipment for the gate turnaround, and over capacity demand upon departure), and collaborative decision-making. The IGTM concept provides effective information services and decision tools to the stakeholders, such as airline dispatchers, gate agents, airport operators, ramp controllers, and air traffic control (ATC) traffic managers and ground controllers to mitigate uncertainties arising from both nominal and off-nominal airport gate operations. IGTM will provide NAS stakeholders customized decision making tools through a User Interface (UI) by leveraging historical data (Big Data), net-enabled Air Traffic Management (ATM) live data, and analytics according to dependencies among NAS parameters for the stakeholders to manage and optimize the NAS performance in the gate turnaround domain. The application will give stakeholders predictable results based on the past and current NAS performance according to selected decision trees through the UI. The predictable results are generated based on analysis of the unique airport attributes (e.g., runway, taxiway, terminal, and gate configurations and tenants), and combined statistics from past data and live data based on a specific set of ATM concept-of-operations (ConOps) and operational parameters via systems analysis using an analytic network learning model. The IGTM tool will then bound the uncertainties that arise from nominal and off-nominal operational conditions with direct assessment of the gate turnaround status and the impact of a certain operational decision on the NAS performance, and provide a set of recommended actions to optimize the NAS performance by allowing stakeholders to take mitigation actions to reduce uncertainty and time deviation of planned operational events. An IGTM prototype was developed at NASA Ames Simulation Laboratories (SimLabs) to demonstrate the benefits and applicability of the concept. A data network, using the System Wide Information Management (SWIM)-like messaging application using the ActiveMQ message service, was connected to the simulated data warehouse, scheduled flight plans, a fast-time airport simulator, and a graphic UI. A fast-time simulation was integrated with the data warehouse or Big Data/Analytics (BAI), scheduled flight plans from Aeronautical Operational Control AOC, IGTM Controller, and a UI via a SWIM-like data messaging network using the ActiveMQ message service, illustrated in Figure 1, to demonstrate selected use-cases showing the benefits of the IGTM concept on the NAS performance.

Efficent ATM systems↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optimizing Air Transportation Service to Metroplex Airports: Analysis Using the Airline Schedule Optimization Model (ASOM) - Par 2

The air transportation system is a significant driver of the U.S. economy, providing safe, affordable, and rapid transportation. During the past three decades airspace and airport capacity has not grown in step with demand for air transportation; the failure to increase capacity at the same rate as the growth in demand results in unreliable service and systemic delay. This report describes the results of an analysis of airline strategic decision-making that affects geographic access, economic access, and airline finances, extending the analysis of these factors using historic data (from Part 1 of the report). The Airline Schedule Optimization Model (ASOM) was used to evaluate how exogenous factors (passenger demand, airline operating costs, and airport capacity limits) affect geographic access (markets-served, scheduled flights, aircraft size), economic access (airfares), airline finances (profit), and air transportation efficiency (aircraft size). This analysis captures the impact of the implementation of airport capacity limits, as well as the effect of increased hedged fuel prices, which serve as a proxy for increased costs per flight that might occur if auctions or congestion pricing are imposed; also incorporated are demand elasticity curves based on historical data that provide information about how passenger demand is affected by airfare changes.

Donoue, George↗
NASA NTRS1977

LISP: Program is data. A historical perspective on MACLISP

There was a continuing development of the MACLISP system, spurred in great measure by the needs of MACSYMA development. In a mosaic, historical style, the major features of the system are reported. For each feature discussed, an attempt is made to mention the year of initial development, and the names of persons or projects primarily responsible for requiring, needing, or suggesting such features.

White, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Homogeneity of lava flows - Chemical data for historic Mauna Loan eruptions

Chemical analyses of basalts collected from the major historic eruptions of Mauna Loa volcano show that many of the flow fields are remarkably homogeneous in composition. Despite their large size (lengths 9-85 km), large areal extents (13-114 sq km), and various durations of eruption (1-450 days), many of the flow fields have compositional variability that is within, or close to, the analytical error for most elements. The flow fields that are not homogeneous vary mainly in olivine content in an otherwise homogeneous melt. Some are composite flow fields made up of several, apparently homogeneous subunits erupted at different elevations along the active volcanic rifts. Not all volcanoes produce lavas that are homogeneous like those of Mauna Loa. If studies such as this are to be used to evaluate compositional diversity in lavas where there is a lack of sampling control, such as on other planets, it is necessary to understand why some flow units and flow fields are compositionally homogeneous and others are not, and to develop criteria for distinguishing between them.

Rhodes, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Ground-based microwave observations of ozone in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere

A 9-month-long series of mesurements of ozone in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere is reported. The measurements are presented as monthly averages of profiles in blocks of roughly 20 min local time and as night-to-day ratios. An error analysis predicts accuracies of 5-26% for the monthly profiles and 2.5-9% for the ratios. The data are compared to historical data from Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) and limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere (LIMS), and it is shown how to remove the effect of different vertical resolution from the comparisons. The microwave data typically agree to better than 10% with SMF and nighttime LIMS ozone at all altitudes below the 0.1-mbar surface. Comparison of the microwave night-to-day ratio with the corresponding ratio from LIMS suggests that nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium effects in the LIMS daytime data exceed 10% at all pressures less than or equal to 1 mbar.

Connor, Brian J.↗