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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Millimeter Light Curves of Sagittarius A* Observed during the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope Campaign

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observed the compact radio source, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), in the Galactic Center on 2017 April 5–11 in the 1.3 mm wavelength band. At the same time, interferometric array data from the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array and the Submillimeter Array were collected, providing Sgr A* light curves simultaneous with the EHT observations. These data sets, complementing the EHT very long baseline interferometry, are characterized by a cadence and signal-to-noise ratio previously unattainable for Sgr A* at millimeter wavelengths, and they allow for the investigation of source variability on timescales as short as a minute. While most of the light curves correspond to a low variability state of Sgr A*, the April 11 observations follow an X-ray flare and exhibit strongly enhanced variability. All of the light curves are consistent with a red-noise process, with a power spectral density (PSD) slope measured to be between −2 and −3 on timescales between 1 minute and several hours. Our results indicate a steepening of the PSD slope for timescales shorter than 0.3 hr. The spectral energy distribution is flat at 220 GHz, and there are no time lags between the 213 and 229 GHz frequency bands, suggesting low optical depth for the event horizon scale source. We characterize Sgr A*’s variability, highlighting the different behavior observed just after the X-ray flare, and use Gaussian process modeling to extract a decorrelation timescale and a PSD slope. We also investigate the systematic calibration uncertainties by analyzing data from independent data reduction pipelines.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. I. The Shadow of the Supermassive Black Hole in the Center of the Milky Way

We present the first Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations of Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), the Galactic center source associated with a supermassive black hole. These observations were conducted in 2017 using a global interferometric array of eight telescopes operating at a wavelength of λ = 1.3 mm. The EHT data resolve a compact emission region with intrahour variability. A variety of imaging and modeling analyses all support an image that is dominated by a bright, thick ring with a diameter of 51.8 ± 2.3 μas (68% credible interval). The ring has modest azimuthal brightness asymmetry and a comparatively dim interior. Using a large suite of numerical simulations, we demonstrate that the EHT images of Sgr A* are consistent with the expected appearance of a Kerr black hole with mass ∼4 × 10$^{6}$ M $_{⊙}$, which is inferred to exist at this location based on previous infrared observations of individual stellar orbits, as well as maser proper-motion studies. Our model comparisons disfavor scenarios where the black hole is viewed at high inclination (i > 50°), as well as nonspinning black holes and those with retrograde accretion disks. Our results provide direct evidence for the presence of a supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, and for the first time we connect the predictions from dynamical measurements of stellar orbits on scales of 10$^{3}$–10$^{5}$ gravitational radii to event-horizon-scale images and variability. Furthermore, a comparison with the EHT results for the supermassive black hole M87* shows consistency with the predictions of general relativity spanning over three orders of magnitude in central mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. VI. Testing the Black Hole Metric

Astrophysical black holes are expected to be described by the Kerr metric. This is the only stationary, vacuum, axisymmetric metric, without electromagnetic charge, that satisfies Einstein’s equations and does not have pathologies outside of the event horizon. We present new constraints on potential deviations from the Kerr prediction based on 2017 EHT observations of Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*). We calibrate the relationship between the geometrically defined black hole shadow and the observed size of the ring-like images using a library that includes both Kerr and non-Kerr simulations. We use the exquisite prior constraints on the mass-to-distance ratio for Sgr A* to show that the observed image size is within ∼10% of the Kerr predictions. We use these bounds to constrain metrics that are parametrically different from Kerr, as well as the charges of several known spacetimes. To consider alternatives to the presence of an event horizon, we explore the possibility that Sgr A* is a compact object with a surface that either absorbs and thermally reemits incident radiation or partially reflects it. Using the observed image size and the broadband spectrum of Sgr A*, we conclude that a thermal surface can be ruled out and a fully reflective one is unlikely. We compare our results to the broader landscape of gravitational tests. Together with the bounds found for stellar-mass black holes and the M87 black hole, our observations provide further support that the external spacetimes of all black holes are described by the Kerr metric, independent of their mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. VII. Polarization of the Ring

Abstract The Event Horizon Telescope observed the horizon-scale synchrotron emission region around the Galactic center supermassive black hole, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), in 2017. These observations revealed a bright, thick ring morphology with a diameter of 51.8 ± 2.3 μas and modest azimuthal brightness asymmetry, consistent with the expected appearance of a black hole with mass M ≈ 4 × 106 M ⊙. From these observations, we present the first resolved linear and circular polarimetric images of Sgr A*. The linear polarization images demonstrate that the emission ring is highly polarized, exhibiting a prominent spiral electric vector polarization angle pattern with a peak fractional polarization of ∼40% in the western portion of the ring. The circular polarization images feature a modestly (∼5%–10%) polarized dipole structure along the emission ring, with negative circular polarization in the western region and positive circular polarization in the eastern region, although our methods exhibit stronger disagreement than for linear polarization. We analyze the data using multiple independent imaging and modeling methods, each of which is validated using a standardized suite of synthetic data sets. While the detailed spatial distribution of the linear polarization along the ring remains uncertain owing to the intrinsic variability of the source, the spiraling polarization structure is robust to methodological choices. The degree and orientation of the linear polarization provide stringent constraints for the black hole and its surrounding magnetic fields, which we discuss in an accompanying publication.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. VIII. Physical Interpretation of the Polarized Ring

Abstract In a companion paper, we present the first spatially resolved polarized image of Sagittarius A* on event horizon scales, captured using the Event Horizon Telescope, a global very long baseline interferometric array operating at a wavelength of 1.3 mm. Here we interpret this image using both simple analytic models and numerical general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations. The large spatially resolved linear polarization fraction (24%–28%, peaking at ∼40%) is the most stringent constraint on parameter space, disfavoring models that are too Faraday depolarized. Similar to our studies of M87*, polarimetric constraints reinforce a preference for GRMHD models with dynamically important magnetic fields. Although the spiral morphology of the polarization pattern is known to constrain the spin and inclination angle, the time-variable rotation measure (RM) of Sgr A* (equivalent to ≈46° ± 12° rotation at 228 GHz) limits its present utility as a constraint. If we attribute the RM to internal Faraday rotation, then the motion of accreting material is inferred to be counterclockwise, contrary to inferences based on historical polarized flares, and no model satisfies all polarimetric and total intensity constraints. On the other hand, if we attribute the mean RM to an external Faraday screen, then the motion of accreting material is inferred to be clockwise, and one model passes all applied total intensity and polarimetric constraints: a model with strong magnetic fields, a spin parameter of 0.94, and an inclination of 150°. We discuss how future 345 GHz and dynamical imaging will mitigate our present uncertainties and provide additional constraints on the black hole and its accretion flow.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

An empirical study of moving horizon closed-loop demand response scheduling

The potential of electricity-intensive chemical plants to engage in demand response (DR) initiatives in support of power grid operations has been the subject of many conceptual studies. In this work, using an industrially-relevant model of an air separation unit, we undertake an extensive simulation study of moving horizon (MH) rescheduling approaches, where we "close the scheduling loop" based on updated information regarding disturbances such as changes in electricity prices, ambient conditions and chemical product demand. Our study produces several unexpected findings regarding the non-periodic nature of rescheduling solutions, the impact of the accuracy of disturbance forecasts on the economics of DR scheduling, and on the interplay of simultaneously dealing with fluctuations on both the supply side (i.e., electricity prices) and the product demand side of the plant. Furthermore, we posit that the latter fluctuations pose significant limitations to the potential of a chemical plant to engage in DR.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty-Guided Prediction Horizon of Phase-Resolved Ocean Wave Forecasting Under Data Sparsity: Experimental and Numerical Evaluation

Accurate short-term wave forecasting is critical for the safe and efficient operation of marine structures that rely on real-time, phase-resolved ocean wave information for control and monitoring purposes (e.g., digital twins). These systems often depend on environmental sensors (e.g., waverider buoys, wave-sensing LIDAR). Challenges arise when upstream sensor data are missing, sparse, or phase-shifted due to drift. This study investigates the performance of two machine learning models, time-series dense encoder (TiDE) and long short-term memory (LSTM), for forecasting phase-resolved ocean surface elevations under varying degrees of data degradation. We introduce the τ-trimming algorithm, which adapts the prediction horizon based on uncertainty thresholds derived from historical forecasts. Numerical wave tank (NWT) and wave basin experiments are used to benchmark model performance under short- and long-term data masking, spatially coarse sensor grids, and upstream phase shifts. Results show under a 50% probability of upstream data loss, the τ-trimmed TiDE model achieves a 46% reduction in error at the most upstream target, compared to 22% for LSTM. Furthermore, phase misalignment in upstream data introduces a near-linear increase in forecast error. Under moderate model settings, a ±3 s misalignment increases the mean absolute error by approximately 0.5 m, while the same error is accumulated at ±4 s using the more conservative approach. These findings inform the design of resilient, uncertainty-aware wave forecasting systems suited for realistic offshore sensing environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lessons from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon Accident in the Gulf of Mexico

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) accident in the Gulf of Mexico had many unique aspects to it not seen in previous marine spills. Indeed, research related to the DWH response phase, Natural Resource Damage Assessment, Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI), National Academy of Sciences, US agencies: NOAA, EPA, Fish & Wildlife, DOE, and Coast Guard have made this the most studied marine oil spill in the world. There are many oil biodegradation lessons learned from this experience and these will undoubtedly continue for many years.

Hazen, Terry C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

An effective field theory of quantum mechanical black hole horizons

We develop an effective theory which describes black holes with quantum mechanical horizons that is valid at scales long compared to the Schwarzschild radius but short compared to the lifetime of the black hole. Our formalism allows one to calculate the quantum mechanical effects in scattering processes involving black hole asymptotic states. We point out that the EFT Wightman functions which describe Hawking radiation in the Unruh vacuum are not Planck suppressed and are actually enhanced relative to those in the Boulware vacuum, for which such radiation is absent. We elaborate on this point showing how the non-Planck suppressed effects of Hawking radiation cancel in classical observables.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Unveiling horizons in quantum critical collapse

Critical gravitational collapse offers a unique window into regimes of arbitrarily high curvature, culminating in a naked singularity arising from smooth initial data — thus providing a dynamical counterexample to weak cosmic censorship. Near the critical regime, quantum effects from the collapsing matter are expected to intervene before full quantum gravity resolves the singularity. Despite its fundamental significance, a self-consistent treatment has so far remained elusive. In this work, we perform a one-loop semiclassical analysis using the robust anomaly-based method in the canonical setup of Einstein gravity minimally coupled to a free, massless scalar field. Focusing on explicitly solvable near-critical solutions in both 2 + 1 and 3 + 1 dimensions, we analytically solve the semiclassical Einstein equations and obtain controlled, quantitative results for several long-standing questions within the dominant s-wave sector. We find that regularity uniquely selects a Boulware-like quantum state, encoding genuine vacuum polarization effects from the collapsing matter. Remarkably, the resulting quantum corrections manifest as a growing mode. Horizon-tracing analyses, incorporating both classical and quantum modes, reveal the emergence of a finite mass gap, signaling a phase transition from classical Type II to quantum-modified Type I behavior, thereby providing a quantum enforcement of the weak cosmic censorship. The most non-trivial aspect of our analysis involves dealing with non-conformal matter fields in explicitly time-dependent critical spacetimes. Along the way, we uncover intriguing and previously underexplored features of quantum field theory in curved spacetime.

2D Gravity↗
DOE OSTI2022

Seeing behind black hole horizons in SYK

We present an explicit reconstruction of the interior of an AdS2 black hole in Jackiw-Teitelboim gravity, that is entirely formulated in the dual SYK model and makes no direct reference to the gravitational bulk. We do this by introducing a probe “observer” in the right wormhole exterior and using the prescription of [arXiv:2009.04476] to transport SYK operators along the probe’s infalling worldline and into the black hole interior, using an appropriate SYK modular Hamiltonian. Our SYK computation recovers the precise proper time at which signals sent from the left boundary are registered by our observer’s apparatus inside the wormhole. The success of the computation relies on the universal properties of SYK and we outline a promising avenue for extending it to higher dimensions and applying it to the computation of scattering amplitudes behind the horizon.

2D Gravity↗
DOE OSTI2020

Horizon radiation reaction forces

Using Effective Field Theory (EFT) methods, we compute the effects of horizon dissipation on the gravitational interactions of relativistic binary black hole systems. We assume that the dynamics is perturbative, i.e it admits an expansion in powers of Newton’s constant (post-Minkowskian, or PM, approximation). As applications, we compute corrections to the scattering angle in a black hole collision due to dissipative effects to leading PM order, as well as the post-Newtonian (PN) corrections to the equations of motion of binary black holes in non-relativistic orbits, which represents the leading order finite size effect in the equations of motion. The methods developed here are also applicable to the case of more general compact objects, eg. neutron stars, where the magnitude of the dissipative effects depends on non-gravitational physics (e.g, the equation of state for nuclear matter).

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Crescendo beyond the horizon: More gravitational waves from domain walls bounded by inflated cosmic strings

Gravitational-wave (GW) signals offer a unique window into the dynamics of the early universe. GWs may be generated by the topological defects produced in the early universe, which contain information on the symmetry of UV physics. We consider the case in which a two-step phase transition produces a network of domain walls bounded by cosmic strings. Specifically, we focus on the case in which there is a hierarchy in the symmetry-breaking scales, and a period of inflation pushes the cosmic string generated in the first phase transition outside the horizon before the second phase transition. We show that the GW signal from the evolution and collapse of this string-wall network has a unique spectrum, and the resulting signal strength can be sizeable. In particular, depending on the model parameters, the resulting signal can show up in a broad range of frequencies and can be discovered by a multitude of future probes, including the pulsar timing arrays and space- and ground-based GW observatories. As an example that naturally gives rise to this scenario, we present a model with the first phase transition followed by a brief period of thermal inflation driven by the field responsible for the second stage of symmetry breaking. Here, the model can be embedded into a supersymmetric setup, which provides a natural realization of this scenario. In this case, the successful detection of the peak of the GW spectrum probes the soft supersymmetry breaking scale and the wall tension.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physics of the Inverted Harmonic Oscillator: From the lowest Landau level to event horizons

In this work, we present the inverted harmonic oscillator (IHO) Hamiltonian as a paradigm to understand the quantum mechanics of scattering and time-decay in a diverse set of physical systems. As one of the generators of area preserving transformations, the IHO Hamiltonian can be studied as a dilatation generator, squeeze generator, a Lorentz boost generator, or a scattering potential. In establishing these different forms, we demonstrate the physics of the IHO that underlies phenomena as disparate as the Hawking–Unruh effect and scattering in the lowest Landau level (LLL) in quantum Hall systems. We derive the emergence of the IHO Hamiltonian in the LLL in a gauge invariant way and show its exact parallels with the Rindler Hamiltonian that describes quantum mechanics near event horizons. This approach of studying distinct physical systems with symmetries described by isomorphic Lie algebras through the emergent IHO Hamiltonian enables us to reinterpret geometric response in the lowest Landau level in terms of relativistic effects such as Wigner rotation. Further, the analytic scattering matrix of the IHO points to the existence of quasinormal modes (QNMs) in the spectrum, which have quantized time-decay rates. We present a way to access these QNMs through wave packet scattering, thus proposing a novel effect in quantum Hall point contact geometries that parallels those found in black holes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of modeled time horizon on quantifying the need for long-duration storage

Long-Duration Energy Storage (LDES) has gained interest due to its key role in attaining a decarbonized, low-cost, and stable grid driven by variable renewable electricity (VRE). Currently, there is a wide range of LDES technologies being developed to provide electricity with 8+ hours of consecutive discharge. However, current capacity expansion models used in long-term planning processes rarely consider low cost LDES as a candidate technology. If they do, the storage balancing horizon (SBH) of the model usually only considers non-consecutive 1-day periods that do not capture the potential of LDES to shift energy across multiple days or even seasons. Addressing these limitations in existing models, this work explores the ways in which the optimal energy storage changes when increasing the number of consecutive days in the SBH and how these changes will impact planners who are determining the future roles of energy storage. Our analysis uses SWITCH, an open-source capacity expansion model with a high spatial resolution for the entire Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) in a zero-carbon scenario in 2050. We find that the number of consecutive days in the SBH changes both the total selected power and energy capacity of LDES when storage energy and power capacity overnight costs are $\$$13 USD/kWh (or less) and $113 USD/kW, respectively. We also find that the amount of required energy in storage to drive a future VRE-driven WECC grid ranges from 2.5 TWh to 16.0 TWh depending on the length of the SBH. The optimal storage duration (energy to power ratio) we obtain ranges from 10 h to 620 h among all the scenarios. Furthermore, depending on the storage cost assumption, we observe different charge/discharge patterns when varying the length of the SBH. Given our results, we anticipate that as more LDES technologies become commercially available, it will be critical to increase the length of the SBH to fully capture the benefits of LDES assets in long-term planning processes of high VRE-driven grids.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing district energy systems by integrating Borehole Thermal Energy Storage Using a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming g-function framework with a Multi-Timescale Rolling Horizon method

Shallow geothermal has gained increasing attention in recent years; however, a reliable framework for its accurate incorporation into large-scale energy system optimization remains lacking. This study proposes a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) framework combined with the g-function approach to integrate Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) technology into energy system optimization. Validation against a Modelica-based reservoir network simulation demonstrates that the proposed framework effectively captures the ground thermal response under varying energy loads and accurately estimates the borefield energy supply. To enhance scalability, a Rolling Horizon with Multi-Timescale (RH-MTS) method is further introduced, reducing computational time by 73 % for the 1-year optimization model with only minor loss of optimality. The framework is demonstrated through the case study of the UC Berkeley campus. Results indicate that BTES is a cost-effective and low-carbon solution: two borefields comprising 382 boreholes can meet 8.0 % and 6.6 % of the total campus heating and cooling demand, respectively, at an average energy rate of 0.70–0.77 USD/kWh and carbon intensity of 0.54 kg-CO2/kWh. Short-term analysis reveals a 35%–65% decline in BTES energy flow after 3–6 months of continuous heating/cooling operation, while long-term simulation shows that annual energy production of BTES can vary by up to 12.0 % after four years before stabilizing. Overall, this study develops a novel optimization framework that couples physics-based g-function method with MILP optimization framework, thereby advancing methodological development for shallow-geothermal integration and providing actionable guidance for BTES deployment in district-energy systems.

Yang, Jiahui↗
DOE OSTI2021

Incidence of chronic respiratory conditions among oil spill responders: Five years of follow-up in the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Coast Guard Cohort study

Background: Over ten years after the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill, our understanding of long term respiratory health risks associated with oil spill response exposures is limited. Here we conducted a prospective analysis in a cohort of U.S. Coast Guard personnel with universal military healthcare. Methods: For all active duty cohort members (N = 45,193) in the DWH Oil Spill Coast Guard Cohort Study we obtained medical encounter data from October 01, 2007 to September 30, 2015 (i.e., ~2.5 years pre-spill; ~5.5 years post-spill). We used Cox Proportional Hazards regressions to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR), comparing risks for incident respiratory conditions/symptoms (2010–2015) for: responders vs. non-responders; responders reporting crude oil exposure, any inhalation of crude oil vapors, and being in the vicinity of burning crude oil versus responders without those exposures. We also evaluated self-reported crude oil and oil dispersant exposures, combined. Within-responder comparisons were adjusted for age, sex, and smoking. Results: While elevated aHRs for responder/non-responder comparisons were generally weak, within-responder comparisons showed stronger risks with exposure to crude oil. Notably, for responders reporting exposure to crude oil via inhalation, there were elevated risks for all sinusitis (aHR = 1.48; 95%CI, 1.06–2.06), unspecified chronic sinusitis (aHR = 1.55; 95%CI, 1.08–2.22), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and other allied conditions (aHR = 1.43; 95%CI, 1.00–2.06), and dyspnea and respiratory abnormalities (aHR = 1.29; 95%CI, 1.00–1.67); there was a suggestion of elevated risk for diseases classified as asthma and reactive airway diseases (aHR = 1.18; 95%CI, 0.98–1.41), including the specific condition, asthma (aHR = 1.35; 95%CI, 0.80–2.27), the symptom, shortness of breath (aHR = 1.50; 95%CI, 0.89–2.54), and the overall classification of chronic respiratory conditions (aHR = 1.18; 95%CI, 0.98–1.43). Exposure to both crude oil and dispersant was positively associated with elevated risk for shortness of breath (HR = 2.24; 95%CI, 1.09–4.64). Conclusions: Among active duty Coast Guard personnel, oil spill clean-up exposures were associated with moderately increased risk for longer term respiratory conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Propagating synthetic populations with dynamic Bayesian networks: a framework for long-horizon demographic forecasting

This study presents a dynamic demographic microsimulator using dynamic Bayesian networks to forecast long–term changes in household and individual life events. Leveraging longitudinal Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, two networks for individuals and households were modeled to simulate transitions in employment, income, education, marriage, childbirth, leaving the parental home, home ownership, mortality, and household formation or dissolution. Across 1,000 simulation runs spanning 24 years, household–level outcomes remain highly accurate and individual–level predictions reasonable. Although accuracy naturally declines with projection horizon, performance remains promising at both levels. This study addresses a key limitation of existing population synthesis models, which typically generate only a single static snapshot of the population. In conclusion, by introducing a framework that propagates cross-sectional outputs into the future, the microsimulator enables the tracking of demographic evolution over time, enhances realism in population-based simulations, and supplies credible inputs to agent-based travel demand models.

Demographic modeling↗