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At least 73 records · Page 4

The Importance of Cross-Scale and Cross-Interface Processes on Arctic Amplification

The Arctic is a dynamic region, demonstrated by its remarkable internal variability and rapid response to anthropogenic climate change over the last >40 years. Actionable predictions and projections hold significant value for managing both natural and human systems. The value of these model outputs only grows in a warmer, less icy Arctic. However, substantial gaps exist in our understanding of cross-scale and cross-interface (air-sea ice-ocean) interactions that limit our predictive capabilities. Studies dating back at least 40 years provide evidence that the evolution of the Arctic climate system is sensitive to these cross-scale and cross-interface interactions. This presentation summarizes our understanding of cross-scale and cross-interface interactions relevant to the Arctic’s response to anthropogenic climate change—Arctic Amplification. The presentation emphasizes the influence of surface-type dependent turbulent flux exchanges of heat and moisture, the rectification of episodic atmospheric heat transport events on time-averaged changes, local and remote feedback interactions, and cross-seasonal energy transfers. The presentation concludes with a summary of knowledge gaps and discusses potential pathways for accelerating our understanding of the Arctic climate system.

Patrick C Taylor↗

Cross-Scale and Cross-Interface Processes and Arctic Amplification

The Arctic is a dynamic region, demonstrated by its remarkable internal variability and rapid response to anthropogenic climate change over the last >40 years. Actionable predictions and projections hold significant value for managing both natural and human systems. The value of these model outputs only grows in a warmer, less icy Arctic. However, substantial gaps exist in our understanding of cross-scale and cross-interface (air-sea ice-ocean) interactions that limit our predictive capabilities. Studies dating back at least 40 years provide evidence that the evolution of the Arctic climate system is sensitive to these cross-scale and cross-interface interactions. This presentation summarizes our understanding of cross-scale and cross-interface interactions relevant to the Arctic’s response to anthropogenic climate change—Arctic Amplification. The presentation emphasizes the influence of surface-type dependent turbulent flux exchanges of heat and moisture, the rectification of episodic atmospheric heat transport events on time-averaged changes, local and remote feedback interactions, and cross-seasonal energy transfers. The presentation concludes with a summary of knowledge gaps and discusses potential pathways for accelerating our understanding of the Arctic climate system.

Patrick C. Taylor↗

Impact of Advanced Synoptics and Simplified Checklists During Aircraft Systems Failures

Abstract—Natural human capacities are becoming increasingly mismatched to the enormous data volumes, processing capabilities, and decision speeds demanded in today’s aviation environment. Increasingly Autonomous Systems (IAS) are uniquely suited to solve this problem. NASA is conducting research and development of IAS - hardware and software systems, utilizing machine learning algorithms, seamlessly integrated with humans whereby task performance of the combined system is significantly greater than the individual components. IAS offer the potential for significantly improved levels of performance and safety that are superior to either human or automation alone. A human-in-the-loop test was conducted in NASA Langley’s Integration Flight Deck B-737-800 simulator to evaluate advanced synoptic pages with simplified interactive electronic checklists as an IAS for routine air carrier flight operations and in response to aircraft system failures. Twelve U.S. airline crews flew various normal and non-normal procedures and their actions and performance were recorded in response to failures. These data are fundamental to and critical for the design and development of future increasingly autonomous systems that can better support the human in the cockpit. Synoptic pages and electronic checklists significantly improved pilot responses to non-normal scenarios, but implementation of these aids and other intelligent assistants have barriers to implementation (e.g., certification cost) that must overcome.

Etherington, Timothy J.↗

Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) Technology for NASA Earth Science

For NASA's Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program, an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) is defined as an interactive and integrated multidomain, multiscale, digital replica of the state and temporal evolution of Earth systems. It dynamically integrates: relevant Earth system models and simulations; other relevant models (e.g., related to the world's infrastructure); continuous and timely (including near real time and direct readout) observations (e.g., space, air, ground, over/underwater, Internet of Things (IoT), socioeconomic); long-time records; as well as analytics and artificial intelligence tools. Effective ESDTs enable users to run hypothetical scenarios to improve the understanding, prediction of and mitigation/response to Earth system processes, natural phenomena and human activities as well as their many interactions. An ESDT is a type of integrated information system that, for example, enables continuous assessment of impact from naturally occurring and/or human activities on physical and natural environments. AIST ESDT strategic goals are to: 1. Develop information system frameworks to provide continuous and accurate representations of systems as they change over time; 2. Mirror various Earth Science systems and utilize the combination of Data Analytics, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Thread, and state-of-the-art models to help predict the Earth’s response to various phenomena; 3. Provide the tools to conduct "what if" investigations that can result in actionable predictions. The AIST ESDT thrust is developing capabilities toward the development of future digital twins of the Earth or of subcomponents of the Earth. This will enable the development of an overarching framework that will integrate New Observing Strategies (NOS) to enable new observation measurements, i.e., multi-source, coordinated, dynamic and responsive to needs and requests defined by Analytic Collaborative Frameworks (ACF) that enable agile science investigations fusing and analyzing very large amounts of diverse data. NOS and ACF capabilities along with open access to various science, infrastructure and human data, interconnected modeling, data assimilation, simulations, surrogate modeling, high-performance computing and advanced visualization, will define a powerful framework that could be utilized for local, regional or global and/or thematic digital twins. This presentation will describe a general overview of the AIST ESDT vision including prior work done in the areas of NOS and ACF as well as current and upcoming ESDT projects.

Jacqueline Le Moigne↗

Human–Earth system interactions under climate change

This special issue, titled ‘Focus on human–Earth system interactions under climate change,’ compiles cutting-edge research that deepens our understanding of the complex feedback mechanisms between anthropogenic activities and Earth system processes in the context of a changing climate (figure 1). The featured articles employ a diverse array of methodologies—including field studies, remote sensing, modeling, and socio-ecological analyses—to explore these interconnections. A unifying theme across these contributions is the imperative to bridge disciplinary divides, integrating physical Earth sciences with social sciences to fully capture the spectrum of human-Earth system interactions. Key topics addressed the impacts of human activities on natural systems, encompassing land-use change and water resource management on biogeochemistry, climate dynamics, and feedback on the climate system and socioeconomics from local to global scales under a changing climate.

Li, Huidong [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (Unit↗

Challenges in applying model-based systems engineering: human-centered design perspective

Systems engineering is, by its nature, human-centered. It is about tradeoffs and negotiations by systems engineers among different disciplines and systems to ensure the resulting system of systems can achieve the mission objectives successfully. Applying MBSE means enabling system engineers to use MBSE processes, methods, and tools to perform such work. This requires not only tools and infrastructure that support MBSE but also cultural change in how system engineers approach their work. Although the cultural change is listed as one of the challenges for MBSE infusion to address, its details and how to address them are not often discussed in the literature and the community. We used Human-Centered Design framework to articulate a core set of related challenges and the implications to tool and infrastructure developments. We will discuss the details of the HCD framework applied and discuss the core challenges using an electrical system engineering to harness engineering workflow as a case study.

Jimenez, Alejandro↗

CPP-TRS(C): On using visual cognitive symbols to enhance communication effectiveness

Communicative Positioning Program/Text Representation Systems (CPP-TRS) is a visual language based on a system of 12 canvasses, 10 signals and 14 symbols. CPP-TRS is based on the fact that every communication action is the result of a set of cognitive processes and the whole system is based on the concept that you can enhance communication by visually perceiving text. With a simple syntax, CPP-TRS is capable of representing meaning and intention as well as communication functions visually. Those are precisely invisible aspects of natural language that are most relevant to getting the global meaning of a text. CPP-TRS reinforces natural language in human machine interaction systems. It complements natural language by adding certain important elements that are not represented by natural language by itself. These include communication intention and function of the text expressed by the sender, as well as the role the reader is supposed to play. The communication intention and function of a text and the reader's role are invisible in natural language because neither specific words nor punctuation conveys them sufficiently and unambiguously; they are therefore non-transparent.

Tonfoni, Graziella↗

Analysis of Tasks in Autonomous Systems Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

An autonomous system refers to the system that has the power and ability for self-governance in the performance of system functions. Autonomous systems have been actively pursued in a variety of domains such as automotive, aviation, maritime, medicine, and nuclear fields. As an unmanned concept employing the highest automation level, the autonomous system basically performs most of the work in normal operations or emergency situations. However, despite advances in technology, many researchers have noted these systems still require human actions. The nature of human actions on autonomous systems is different than the human actions that are considered in existing systems. Nevertheless, only a few studies have been conducted on 1) characterizing the different types of errors and risks associated with human actions interacting with autonomous systems and 2) how to evaluate human actions in the autonomous operations. As a starting point, this study aims to investigate differences of tasks in autonomous operation compared to those in existing nuclear power plant operation using the Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) software. In this paper, insights aspect of human error and time are derived out and discussed based on the output of the EMRALD models.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Implementing Artificial Intelligence Behaviors in a Virtual World

In this paper, we will present a look at the current state of the art in human-computer interface technologies, including intelligent interactive agents, natural speech interaction and gestural based interfaces. We describe our use of these technologies to implement a cost effective, immersive experience on a public region in Second Life. We provision our Artificial Agents as a German Shepherd Dog avatar with an external rules engine controlling the behavior and movement. To interact with the avatar, we implemented a natural language and gesture system allowing the human avatars to use speech and physical gestures rather than interacting via a keyboard and mouse. The result is a system that allows multiple humans to interact naturally with AI avatars by playing games such as fetch with a flying disk and even practicing obedience exercises using voice and gesture, a natural seeming day in the park.

Krisler, Brian↗

The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7

Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections of different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was practical to allow parallel development of Earth system model simulations and detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented by diverse, process-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) is not manifested in the scenario outcomes, thus omitting a dominant source of uncertainty in meeting the Paris Agreement. Mitigation policy is defined in terms of human activity (including emissions), with strategies varying in their timing of net-zero emissions, the balance of mitigation effort between short-lived and long-lived climate forcers, their reliance on land use strategy, and the extent and timing of carbon removals. To explore the response to these drivers, ESMs need to explicitly represent complete cycles of major GHGs, including natural processes and anthropogenic influences. Carbon removal and sequestration strategies, which rely on proposed human management of natural systems, are currently calculated in integrated assessment models (IAMs) during scenario development with only the net carbon emissions passed to the ESM. However, proper accounting of the coupled system impacts of and feedback on such interventions requires explicit process representation in ESMs to build self-consistent physical representations of their potential effectiveness and risks under climate change. We propose that CMIP7 efforts prioritize simulations driven by CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and projected deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies, as well as land use and management, using the process resolution allowed by state-of-the-art ESMs to resolve carbon–climate feedbacks. Post-CMIP7 ambitions should aim to incorporate modeling of non-CO2 GHGs (in particular, sources and sinks of methane and nitrous oxide) and process-based representation of carbon removal options. These developments will allow three primary benefits: (1) resources to be allocated to policy-relevant climate projections and better real-time information related to the detectability and verification of emissions reductions and their relationship to expected near-term climate impacts, (2) scenario modeling of the range of possible future climate states including Earth system processes and feedbacks that are increasingly well-represented in ESMs, and (3) optimal utilization of the strengths of ESMs in the wider context of climate modeling infrastructure (which includes simple climate models, machine learning approaches and kilometer-scale climate models).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Cognitive Game Theoretic Analysis of Conflict Alerts in Air Traffic Control

The current research was motivated by the recommendation made by a joint Government/Industry committee to introduce a new traffic control system, referred to as the Free Flight. This system is designed to use recent new technology to facilitate efficient and safe air transportation. We addressed one of the major difficulties that arise in the design of this and similar multi-agent systems: the adaptive (and slippery) nature of human agents. To facilitate a safe and efficient design of this multi-agent system, designers have to rely on assessments of the expected behavior of the different agents under various scenarios. Whereas the behavior of the computerized agents is predictable, the behavior of the human agents (including air traffic controllers and pilots) is not. Experimental and empirical observations suggest that human agents are likely to adjust their behavior to the design of the system. To see the difficulty that the adaptive nature of human agents creates assume that a good approximation of the way operators currently behave is available. Given this information an optimal design can be performed. The problem arises as the human operator will learn to adjust their behavior to the new system. Following this adjustment process the assumptions made by the designer concerning the operators behavior will no longer be accurate and the system might reach a suboptimal state. In extreme situations these potential suboptimal states might involve unnecessary risk. That is, the fact that operators learn in an adaptive fashion does not imply that the system will become safer as they gain experience. At least in the context of Safety dilemmas, experience can lead to a pareto deficient risk taking behavior.

Erev, Ido↗

Update: Antarctic Winterover as an Analog for Spaceflight Immune Dysregulation

Orbital spaceflight perturbs the human immune system significantly; Natural Killer (NK) and T-lymphocyte (T) cell functions are most susceptible to spaceflight-induced impairment. This loss of function may manifest in persistent latent virus reactivation (CMV, EBV, VZV), which does occur at a higher frequency in astronauts compared to earthlings.

Makedonas, George↗

Wings: A New Paradigm in Human-Centered Design

Many aircraft accidents/incidents investigations cite crew error as a causal factor (Boeing Commercial Airplane Group 1996). Human factors experts suggest that crew error has many underlying causes and should be the start of an accident investigation and not the end. One of those causes, the flight deck design, is correctable. If a flight deck design does not accommodate the human's unique abilities and deficits, crew error may simply be the manifestation of this mismatch. Pilots repeatedly report that they are "behind the aircraft" , i.e., they do not know what the automated aircraft is doing or how the aircraft is doing it until after the fact. Billings (1991) promotes the concept of "human-centered automation"; calling on designers to allocate appropriate control and information to the human. However, there is much ambiguity regarding what it mean's to be human-centered. What often are labeled as "human-centered designs" are actually designs where a human factors expert has been involved in the design process or designs where tests have shown that humans can operate them. While such designs may be excellent, they do not represent designs that are systematically produced according to some set of prescribed methods and procedures. This paper describes a design concept, called Wings, that offers a clearer definition for human-centered design. This new design concept is radically different from current design processes in that the design begins with the human and uses the human body as a metaphor for designing the aircraft. This is not because the human is the most important part of the aircraft (certainly the aircraft would be useless without lift and thrust), but because he is the least understood, the least programmable, and one of the more critical elements. The Wings design concept has three properties: a reversal in the design process, from aerodynamics-, structures-, and propulsion-centered to truly human-centered; a design metaphor that guides function allocation and control and display design; and a deliberate distinction between two fundamental functions of design, to complement and to interpret human performance. The complementary function extends the human's capabilities beyond his or her current limitations - this includes sensing, computation, memory, physical force, and human decision making styles and skills. The interpretive (or hermeneutic, Hollnagel 1991) function translates information, functionality, and commands between the human and the aircraft. The Wings design concept allows the human to remain aware of the aircraft through natural interpretation. It also affords great improvements in system performance by maximizing the human's natural abilities and complementing the human's skills in a natural way. This paper will discuss the Wings design concept by describing the reversal in the traditional design process, the function allocation strategy of Wings, and the functions of complementing and interpreting the human.

Schutte, Paul C.↗

HI-STORM Overpack and MPC-32 Thermal-Hydraulic Model with MOOSE Framework

Nuclear power is a significant source of electricity in the United States, but the average age of nuclear power plants is around 40 years old. The safe management of the spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is a key aspect of the back-end of the nuclear fuel cycle. Spent fuel dry storage systems are becoming a popular and effective solution in this area, given the absence of a final disposal system. The spent fuel cask system (dry cask method) provides a feasible solution to maintain spent fuel for 60 years before final disposal. Dry cask storage has many characteristics that make it attractive. It fulfills the safety requirements of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) while providing modularity and flexibility to contractors. The HI-STORM overpack and MPC-32 canister are the main parts of the HI-STORM 100 dry cask storage system. These components remove heat from the system using natural circulation, requiring no human intervention. This is the characteristic that provides passive heat removal and low maintenance features in dry cask storage systems. To develop a thermal model for a dry cask storage system, the physics behind the system should be defined clearly. There are two natural circulation loops in the system; circulation of helium cools down the nuclear assemblies in the MPC, while circulation of air cools down the walls of the MPC. This work aims to develop a thermal model of the MPC-32 canister and HI-STORM overpack using the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). MOOSE is an open-source framework developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for multiscale, multiphysics simulations. In this study, we will investigate and demonstrate the thermal-hydraulics modeling capabilities of the MOOSE framework, including natural circulation, heat transfer, and porous flow.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Development of a MOOSE thermal model of the MPC-32 canister and HI-STORM overpack

Nuclear power is a significant source of electricity in the United States, but the average age of nuclear power plants is around 40 years old. The safe management of the spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is a key aspect of the back-end of the nuclear fuel cycle. Spent fuel dry storage systems are becoming a popular and effective solution in this area, given the absence of a final disposal system. The spent fuel cask system (dry cask method) provides a feasible solution to maintain spent fuel for 60 years before final disposal. Dry cask storage has many characteristics that make it attractive. It fulfills the safety requirements of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) while providing modularity and flexibility to contractors. The HI-STORM overpack and MPC-32 canister are the main parts of the HI-STORM 100 dry cask storage system. These components remove heat from the system using natural circulation, requiring no human intervention. This is the characteristic that provides passive heat removal and low maintenance features in dry cask storage systems. To develop a thermal model for a dry cask storage system, the physics behind the system should be defined clearly. There are two natural circulation loops in the system; circulation of helium cools down the nuclear assemblies in the MPC, while circulation of air cools down the walls of the MPC. This work aims to develop a thermal model of the MPC-32 canister and HI-STORM overpack using the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). MOOSE is an open-source framework developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for multiscale, multiphysics simulations. In this study, we will investigate and demonstrate the thermal-hydraulics modeling capabilities of the MOOSE framework, including natural circulation, heat transfer, and porous flow.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

About the Complex Natural and Engineered Systems Pillar

Los Alamos National Laboratory is a world leader in applying multi-disciplinary science to complex systems within the Complex Natural and Engineered Systems (CNES) challenge areas. Our search for solutions requires science and technology innovation, as well as an integrated experiment, theory, and modeling and simulation approach. Our research and development spans from improving engineered systems such as nuclear weapons and the power grid, to understanding the interface of human and engineered systems from the subsurface to space, to studying how complex natural systems such as disease and climate impact humanity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Biologically-Inspired Concepts for Autonomic Self-Protection in Multiagent Systems

Biologically-inspired autonomous and autonomic systems (AAS) are essentially concerned with creating self-directed and self-managing systems based on metaphors &om nature and the human body, such as the autonomic nervous system. Agent technologies have been identified as a key enabler for engineering autonomy and autonomicity in systems, both in terms of retrofitting into legacy systems and in designing new systems. Handing over responsibility to systems themselves raises concerns for humans with regard to safety and security. This paper reports on the continued investigation into a strand of research on how to engineer self-protection mechanisms into systems to assist in encouraging confidence regarding security when utilizing autonomy and autonomicity. This includes utilizing the apoptosis and quiescence metaphors to potentially provide a self-destruct or self-sleep signal between autonomic agents when needed, and an ALice signal to facilitate self-identification and self-certification between anonymous autonomous agents and systems.

Sterritt, Roy↗