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NASA NTRS2023

Insights on the Vulnerability of Antarctic Glaciers From the ISMIP6 Ice Sheet Model Ensemble and Associated Uncertainty

The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

Hélène Seroussi↗

NASA NTRS2001

Modeling of Ice Flow and Internal Layers Along a Flow Line Through Swiss Camp in West Greenland

An anisotropic ice flow line model is applied to a flow line through Swiss Camp (69.57 N, 49.28 W) in West Greenland to estimate the dates of internal layers detected by Radio-Echo Sounding measurements. The effect of an anisotropic ice fabric on ice flow is incorporated into the steady state flow line model. The stress-strain rate relationship for anisotropic ice is characterized by an enhancement factor based on the laboratory observations of ice deformation under combined compression and shear stresses. By using present-day data of accumulation rate, surface temperature, surface elevation and ice thickness along the flow line as model inputs, a very close agreement is found between the isochrones generated from the model and the observed internal layers with confirmed dates. The results indicate that this part of Greenland ice sheet is primarily in steady state.

Wang, W. L.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Implementation of Combined Feather and Surface-Normal Ice Growth Models in LEWICE/X

Experimental observations have shown that discrete rime ice growths called feathers, which grow in approximately the direction of water droplet impingement, play an important role in the growth of ice on accreting surfaces for some thermodynamic conditions. An improved physical model of ice accretion has been implemented in the LEWICE 2D panel-based ice accretion code maintained by the NASA Lewis Research Center. The LEWICE/X model of ice accretion explicitly simulates regions of feather growth within the framework of the LEWICE model. Water droplets impinging on an accreting surface are withheld from the normal LEWICE mass/energy balance and handled in a separate routine; ice growth resulting from these droplets is performed with enhanced convective heat transfer approximately along droplet impingement directions. An independent underlying ice shape is grown along surface normals using the unmodified LEWICE method. The resulting dual-surface ice shape models roughness-induced feather growth observed in icing wind tunnel tests. Experiments indicate that the exact direction of feather growth is dependent on external conditions. Data is presented to support a linear variation of growth direction with temperature and cloud water content. Test runs of LEWICE/X indicate that the sizes of surface regions containing feathers are influenced by initial roughness element height. This suggests that a previous argument that feather region size is determined by boundary layer transition may be incorrect. Simulation results for two typical test cases give improved shape agreement over unmodified LEWICE.

Matthew T Velazquez↗

NASA NTRS1993

Numerical Modeling of Anti-icing Systems and Comparison to Test Results on a NACA 0012 Airfoil

A series of experimental tests were conducted in the NASA Lewis IRT on an electro-thermally heated NACA 0012 airfoil. Quantitative comparisons between the experimental results and those predicted by a computer simulation code were made to assess the validity of a recently developed anti-icing model. An infrared camera was utilized to scan the instantaneous temperature contours of the skin surface. Despite some experimental difficulties, good agreement between the numerical predictions and the experiment results were generally obtained for the surface temperature and the possibility for each runback to freeze. Some recommendations were given for an efficient operation of a thermal anti-icing system.

Al-Khalil, Kamel M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Numerical modeling of anti-icing systems and comparison to test results on a NACA 0012 airfoil

A series of experimental tests were conducted in the NASA Lewis IRT on an electro-thermally heated NACA 0012 airfoil. Quantitative comparisons between the experimental results and those predicted by a computer simulation code were made to assess the validity of a recently developed anti-icing model. An infrared camera was utilized to scan the instantaneous temperature contours of the skin surface. Despite some experimental difficulties, good agreement between the numerical predictions and the experimental results were generally obtained for the surface temperature and the possibility for the runback to freeze. Some recommendations were given for an efficient operation of a thermal anti-icing system.

Al-Khalil, Kamel M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A rigorous framework for an improved Messinger/Myers model of ice accretion under conditions of variable property and unsteady aircraft icing

We analyse the Messinger/Myers model by critically evaluating simplifying assumptions through a rigorous formulation of the rime ice accretion process. We explore the effects of both constant and variable ice density and thermal conductivity, along with the effects of sublimation from the ice surface. The effects of key factors such as droplet impact rate, ambient temperature relative to the freezing temperature and the temperature difference between the ambient air and the airfoil surface are examined. Under these varying conditions, the present rigorous formulation is used to assess the significance of unsteady effects, variable ice properties and sublimation. We observe that the Myers model performs remarkably well in certain icing situations and analyse the reasons for this strong performance. We also show that partially relaxing the model’s assumptions can lead to poorer performance. The Myers model can lead to overprediction of ice surface temperature and correspondingly underprediction of transition time under conditions of relatively weak sublimation and surface cooling. A modified Myers model is presented, which can be used to recover near-perfect results under widely varying icing conditions of relevance. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Heat and mass transfer in frost and ice’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

NASA NTRS1991

Deterministic multi-zone ice accretion modeling

The focus here is on a deterministic model of the surface roughness transition behavior of glaze ice. The initial smooth/rough transition location, bead formation, and the propagation of the transition location are analyzed. Based on the hypothesis that the smooth/rough transition location coincides with the laminar/turbulent boundary layer transition location, a multizone model is implemented in the LEWICE code. In order to verify the effectiveness of the model, ice accretion predictions for simple cylinders calculated by the multizone LEWICE are compared to experimental ice shapes. The glaze ice shapes are found to be sensitive to the laminar surface roughness and bead thickness parameters controlling the transition location, while the ice shapes are found to be insensitive to the turbulent surface roughness.

Yamaguchi, K.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Deterministic multi-zone ice accretion modeling

The study focuses on a deterministic model of the surface roughness transition behavior of glaze ice and analyzes the initial smooth/rough transition location, bead formation, and the propagation of the transition location. Based on a hypothesis that the smooth/rough transition location coincides with the laminar/turbulent boundary-layer transition location, a multizone model is implemented in the LEWICE code. In order to verify the effectiveness of the model, ice accretion predictions for simple cylinders calculated by the multizone LEWICE are compared to experimental ice shapes. The glaze ice shapes are found to be sensitive to the laminar surface roughness and bead thickness parameters controlling the transition location, while the ice shapes are found to be insensitive to the turbulent surface roughness.

Yamaguchi, K.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Advancements in the LEWICE Ice Accretion Model

Recent evidence has shown that the NASA/Lewis Ice Accretion Model, LEWICE, does not predict accurate ice shapes for certain glaze ice conditions. This paper will present the methodology used to make a first attempt at improving the ice accretion prediction in these regimes. Importance is given to the correlations for heat transfer coefficient and ice density, as well as runback flow, selection of the transition point, flow field resolution, and droplet trajectory models. Further improvements and refinement of these modules will be performed once tests in NASA's Icing Research Tunnel, scheduled for 1993, are completed.

Icing↗

NASA NTRS1993

Advancements in the LEWICE Ice Accretion Model

Wright, William B.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Modeling Sea Ice Albedo and Transmittance Measurements With A Fully-Coupled Radiative Transfer Model

A rigorous treatment of the sea ice medium has been incorporated in the advanced Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Radiative Transfer (COART) model. The inherent optical properties (IOPs) of brine pockets and air bubbles over the 0.25-4.0 μm spectral region are parameterized as a function of the vertical profile of the sea ice physical properties (temperature, salinity and density). We test the model performance using available albedo and transmittance measurements collected during the Impacts of Climate on the Ecosystems and Chemistry of the Arctic Pacific Environment (ICESCAPE) and the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) field campaigns. The observations are adequately simulated when at least three layers are used to represent bare (first-year and multi-year) ice, including a thin top layer characterized by low density and high scattering. Two layers can be sufficient to model isolated cases of multi-year ice, and apply well to ponded ice except for shallow ponds over thick ice. The albedo and transmittance of ponded ice in the visible are mainly determined by the optical properties of the ice underlying the water layer used to model the pond. Sensitivity results indicate that the air volume or ice density has the largest impact on the simulated fluxes. Possible contamination from light-absorbing impurities, such as black carbon or ice algae, is also implemented in the model and is able to effectively reduce the albedo and transmittance in the visible spectrum to further improve the model-observation agreement. The agreement between the observed and modeled spectra validates the parameterization of the sea ice IOPs, and endorses COART as an accurate tool for radiation studies in the cryosphere.

Coupled Ocean-9 Atmosphere Radiative Transfer (COA↗

NASA NTRS1990

Swept wing ice accretion modeling

An effort to develop a three-dimensional ice accretion modeling method is initiated. This first step toward creation of a complete aircraft icing simulation code builds on previously developed methods for calculating three-dimensional flowfields and particle trajectories combined with a two-dimensional ice accretion calculation along coordinate locations corresponding to streamlines. This work is intended as a demonstration of the types of calculations necessary to predict a three-dimensional ice accretion. Results of calculations using the 3D method for a MS-317 swept wing geometry are projected onto a 2D plane normal to the wing leading edge and compared to 2D results for the same geometry. These results indicate that the flowfield over the surface and the particle trajectories differed for the two calculations. This led to lower collection efficiencies, convective heat transfer coefficients, freezing fractions, and ultimately ice accumulation for the 3D calculation.

Potapczuk, M. G.↗

NASA NTRS1978

An investigation of the astronomical theory of the ice ages using a simple climate-ice sheet model

The astronomical theory of the Quaternary ice ages is incorporated into a simple climate model for global weather; important features of the model include the albedo feedback, topography and dynamics of the ice sheets. For various parameterizations of the orbital elements, the model yields realistic assessments of the northern ice sheet. Lack of a land-sea heat capacity contrast represents one of the chief difficulties of the model.

Pollard, D.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Comet-solar wind interaction - Dynamical length scales and models

ICE magnetometer measurements at Comet Giacobini-Zinner and model simulations of comet-solar wind interactions are analyzed. The magnetometer data reveal the existence of intense hydromagnetic turbulence, a draping of the magnetic field lines to form a magnetotail, a weak shock, and a magnetic barrier region in the magnetosphere. The global models of the comet-solar wind interaction are described. The observed data and models are compared and good correlation is displayed.

Mendis, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Insights into Spatial Sensitivities of Ice Mass Response to Environmental Change from the SeaRISE Ice Sheet Modeling Project I: Antarctica

Atmospheric, oceanic, and subglacial forcing scenarios from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) project are applied to six three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet models to assess Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity over a 500 year timescale and to inform future modeling and field studies. Results indicate (i) growth with warming, except within low-latitude basins (where inland thickening is outpaced by marginal thinning); (ii) mass loss with enhanced sliding (with basins dominated by high driving stresses affected more than basins with low-surface-slope streaming ice); and (iii) mass loss with enhanced ice shelf melting (with changes in West Antarctica dominating the signal due to its marine setting and extensive ice shelves; cf. minimal impact in the Terre Adelie, George V, Oates, and Victoria Land region of East Antarctica). Ice loss due to dynamic changes associated with enhanced sliding and/or sub-shelf melting exceeds the gain due to increased precipitation. Furthermore, differences in results between and within basins as well as the controlling impact of sub-shelf melting on ice dynamics highlight the need for improved understanding of basal conditions, grounding-zone processes, ocean-ice interactions, and the numerical representation of all three.

SeaRISE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Antarctic ice sheet model comparison with uncurated geological constraints shows that higher spatial resolution improves deglacial reconstructions

Accurately reconstructing past changes to the shape and volume of the Antarctic ice sheet relies on the use of physically based and thus internally consistent ice sheet modeling, benchmarked against spatially limited geologic data. The challenge in model benchmarking against geologic data is diagnosing whether model-data misfits are the result of an inadequate model, inherently noisy or biased geologic data, and/or incorrect association between modeled quantities and geologic observations. In this work we address this challenge by (i) the development and use of a new model-data evaluation framework applied to an uncurated data set of geologic constraints, and (ii) nested high-spatial-resolution modeling designed to test the hypothesis that model resolution is an important limitation in matching geologic data. While previous approaches to model benchmarking employed highly curated datasets, our approach applies an automated screening and quality control algorithm to an uncurated public dataset of geochronological observations (specifically, cosmogenic-nuclide exposure-age measurements from glacial deposits in ice-free areas). This optimizes data utilization by including more geological constraints, reduces potential interpretive bias, and allows unsupervised assimilation of new data as they are collected. We also incorporate a nested model framework in which high-resolution domains are downscaled from a continent-wide ice sheet model. We highlight the application of this framework by applying these methods to a small ensemble of deglacial ice-sheet model simulations, and demonstrate that the nested approach improves the ability of model simulations to match exposure age data collected from areas of complex topography and ice flow. We develop a range of diagnostic model-data comparison metrics to provide more insight into model performance than possible from a single-valued misfit statistic, showing that different metrics capture different aspects of ice sheet deflation.

Geosciences↗

NASA NTRS2018

Projections of Future Sea Level Contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets: Challenges Beyond Dynamical Ice Sheet Modeling

As Earth's climate warms, rising sea levels are becoming a great concern. Providing substantiated and well-informed guidance on the amount and rate of future sea level rise is important, but remains challenging. Observations of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets-Earth's largest freshwater reservoirs-reveal their ongoing, rapid, and complex changes in response to an evolving climate. The improved understanding of ice sheet behavior resulting from observations is driving the development of ice sheet models, and is allowing better simulation of past, present, and future ice sheet evolution. However, insight into future changes requires a better understanding of how ice sheets interact with other components of the Earth system and associated feedbacks. As climate models start to include dynamical ice sheet components, our understanding of such interactions and the feedback mechanisms will advance. These new developments in ice sheet modeling and their implementation in climate models are timely, as observations indicate an accelerating contribution of ice sheets to sea level rise.

ice sheet model↗

NASA NTRS1986

Experimental evidence for modifying the current physical model for ice accretion on aircraft surfaces

Closeup movies, still photographs, and other experimental data suggest that the current physical model for ice accretion needs significant modification. At aircraft airspeeds there was no flow of liquid over the surface of the ice after a short initial flow, even at barely subfreezing temperatures. Instead, there were very large stationary drops on the ice surface that lose water from their bottoms by freezing and replenish their liquid by catching the microscopic cloud droplets. This observation disagrees with the existing physical model, which assumes there is a thin liquid film continuously flowing over the ice surface. With no such flow, the freezing-fraction concept of the model fails when a mass balance is performed on the surface water. Rime ice does, as the model predicts, form when the air temperature is low enough to cause the cloud droplets to freeze almost immediately on impact. However, the characteristic shapes of horn-glaze ice or rime ice are primarily caused by the ice shape affecting the airflow locally and consequently the droplet catch and the resulting ice shape. Ice roughness greatly increases the heat transfer coefficient, stops the movement of drops along the surface, and may also affect the airflow initially and thereby the droplet catch. At high subreezing temperatures the initial flow and shedding of surface drops have a large effect on the ice shape. At the incipient freezing limit, no ice forms.

Olsen, W.↗