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NASA NTRS2020

Prediction skill of the 2012 U.S. Great Plains flash drought in Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) models

Rapid-onset droughts, known as flash droughts, can have devastating impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. The ability to predict flash droughts in advance would greatly enhance our preparation for them and potentially mitigate their impacts. Here, we investigate the prediction skill of the extreme 2012 flash drought over the U.S. Great Plains at subseasonal lead times (3 weeks or more in advance) in global forecast systems participating in the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX). An additional comprehensive set of subseasonal hindcasts with NASA’s GEOS model, a SubX model with relatively high prediction skill, was performed to investigate the separate contributions of atmospheric and land initial conditions to flash drought prediction skill. The results show that the prediction skill of the SubX models is quite variable. While skillful predictions are restricted to within the first two forecast weeks in most models, skill is considerably better (3-4 weeks or more) for certain models and initialization dates. The enhanced prediction skill is found to originate from two robust sources: 1) accurate soil moisture initialization once dry soil conditions are established, and 2) the satisfactory representation of quasi-stationary cross-Pacific Rossby wave trains that lead to the rapid intensification of flash droughts. Evidence is provided that the importance of soil moisture initialization applies more generally to central U.S. summer flash droughts. Our results corroborate earlier findings that accurate soil moisture initialization is important for skillful subseasonal forecasts and highlight the need for additional research on the sources and predictability of drought-inducing quasi-stationary atmospheric circulation anomalies.

Anthony M DeAngelis↗

NASA NTRS2018

Prediction Skill of U.S. Flash Droughts in Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) Model Hindcasts

Droughts that establish themselves over a short period of time (weeks to a few months), referred to as flash droughts, can have devastating impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. The ability to predict such droughts in advance would greatly enhance our preparation for them and potentially reduce their impacts. The sub-seasonal time scale at which flash droughts occur emphasizes the importance of producing forecasts at weekly or finer intervals that extend beyond the numerical weather prediction time frame. Here we assess the ability of eight global forecast systems, each participating in the Sub-seasonal Experiment project (SubX), to predict key features associated with rapidly developing droughts over the United States during the last two decades. MERRA2 reanalysis is used as observations. Prediction skill for temperature and precipitation anomalies during these events is limited to the first 1-2 weeks after initialization for most hindcasts. However, there are some hindcasts in which large anomalies are well predicted 3-4 weeks or more in advance. The physical mechanisms that are key to the development of surface anomalies, including quasi-stationary atmospheric waves, were also evaluated. Most hindcasts were unable to capture the development or progression of such drought-inducing circulation features more than 1-2 weeks in advance.

Deangelis, Anthony M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Realistic Thermographic Simulation of Impact Damage with Quadrupole Method

Flash thermography has been shown to be an effective method for detection of delaminations in carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composite structures. Improved understanding of the limitations of the technique can be obtained by simulating the inspection process. Time domain finite difference and finite element methods are well suited for such simulations but can be computationally intensive. An alternate method is to solve the Laplace transform of the heat equation, then invert the Laplace transform to produce a time domain response. Often this is referred to as the thermal quadrupole method and is well suited for simulating flash thermography. The quadrupole method has been used extensively for simulating one-dimensional heat flow in multilayer systems with contact resistances at the interfaces. It is also applicable for three dimensional configurations, in particular for simulation of changes in thermographic response due to delaminations in composites. This presentation discusses three-dimensional simulations with realistic shapes and contact resistances at the interfaces between layers. The results of these simulations are compared to thermography measurements on composites specimens with impact induced delaminations.

thermography↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Realistic Thermographic Simulation of Impact Damage with Quadrupole Method

Flash thermography has been shown to be an effective method for detection of delaminations in carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composite structures. Improved understanding of thelimitations of the technique can be obtained by simulating the inspection process. Time domainfinite difference and finite element methods are well suited for such simulations but can be computationally intensive. An alternate method is to solve the Laplace transform of the heat equation, then invert the Laplace transform to produce a time domain response. Often this is referred to as the thermal quadrupole method and is well suited for simulating flash thermography. The quadrupole method has been used extensively for simulating one-dimensional heat flow in multilayer systems with contact resistances at the interfaces. It is also applicable for three dimensional configurations, in particular for simulation of changes in thermographic response due to delaminations in composites. This presentation discusses three-dimensional simulations with realistic shapes and contact resistances at the interfaces between layers. The results of these simulations are compared to thermography measurements on composites specimens with impact induced delaminations.

Thermography↗

NASA NTRS1974

A review of the compatibility of structural materials with oxygen

Consideration of the problem of ignition and combustion of structural materials, particularly metals, which may come in contact with oxygen during its production, transport, and use. Following a review of the historical development of compatibility problems and research, a detailed account is given of compatibility testing methods aimed at detecting probable ignition sources, such as mechanical impact, electric sparks or flashes, heat, sound waves, abrasion, and surface fractures. A summary is presented of the ignition and combustion research reported in the literature, dwelling particularly on papers concerning oxygen-related accidents and the compatibility of metals with high-pressure oxygen. The relative oxygen compatibility of a number of common materials is discussed, including that of nickel and copper alloys, stainless steels, aluminum alloys, and titanium alloys. Finally, an effort is made to pinpoint research areas which would enhance understanding of the compatibility of bulk materials.

Clark, A. F.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Observation of Shoemaker-Levy Impacts by the Galileo Photopolarimeter Radiometer

The Galileo Photopolarimeter Radiometer experiment made direct photometric observations at 678 and 945 nanometers of several comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 fragments impacting with Jupiter. Initial flashes occurred at (fragment G) 18 July 1994 07:33:32, (H) 18 July 19:31:58, (L) 19 July 22:16:48, and (Q1) 20 July 20:13:52, equivalent Universal Time Coordinated (UTC) observed at Earth, with relative peak 945-nanometer brightnesses of 0.87, 0.67, 1.00, and 0.42, respectively. The light curves show a 2-second to maximum, a 10-second plateau, and an accelerating falloff. The Ql event, observed at both wavelengths, yielded a color temperature of more than 1 0,000 kelvin at its peak.

Martin, Terry Z.↗

NASA NTRS2007

GCR-induced Photon Luminescence of the Moon: The Moon as a CR Detector

We report on the results of a preliminary study of the GCR-induced photon luminescence of the Moon using the Monte Carlo program FLUKA. The model of the lunar surface is taken to be the chemical composition of soils found at various landing sites during the Apollo and Luna programs, averaged over all such sites to define a generic regolith for the present analysis. This then becomes the target that is bombarded by Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) in FLUKA to determine the photon fluence when there is no sunshine or Earthshine. From the photon fluence we derive the energy spectrum which can be utilized to design an orbiting optical instrument for measuring the GCR-induced luminescence. This is to be distinguished from the gamma-ray spectrum produced by the radioactive decay of its radiogenic constituents lying in the surface and interior. Also, we investigate transient optical flashes from high-energy CRs impacting the lunar surface (boulders and regolith). The goal is to determine to what extent the Moon could be used as a rudimentary CR detector. Meteor impacts on the Moon have been observed for centuries to generate such flashes, so why not CRs?

Wilson, Thomas L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Navigating Epistemic Uncertainty in the Management of Flash Droughts

Abstract: Flash droughts, characterized by their rapid onset, sharply contrast with the typically gradual development of traditional droughts. These events are triggered by a combination of low rainfall and high evaporation rates, driven by elevated temperatures, making them particularly challenging to predict and prepare for. As a relatively new concept, flash drought is not well understood, which introduces significant epistemic uncertainties regarding their nature and detection methods. This under-detection hinders planners' ability to effectively manage these events. Despite these uncertainties, flash droughts can have significant impacts, raising the question: how can decision-makers prepare for such events given the current knowledge gaps? To address this, we propose a methodological framework aimed at enhancing flash drought preparedness by guiding the selection of appropriate indicators based on their detection capabilities and the decision-makers' level of risk aversion. Our approach involves evaluating six different flash drought indicators and analyzing the level of agreement among them. Additionally, we consider the decision-makers' risk aversion, distinguishing between those who require consensus across all methods (risk-takers) and those who act based on a single method's indication (risk-averse). The insights gained from this study offer a pathway towards more informed decision-making processes regarding flash droughts, potentially mitigating their adverse effects through better preparedness and response strategies.

climate resilience↗

DOE OSTI2026

Comparing Synoptic Pattern Evolution for Flash‐Flood‐Producing and Non‐Flash‐Flood‐Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems in the United States

Understanding how the short-term evolution of synoptic weather patterns influence Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) is essential, as these systems are responsible for over half of central U.S. flash floods, leading to substantial socioeconomic and water resource management impacts. This study analyzes long-term MCS data, flash flood reports, and atmospheric reanalyses from 2007 to 2017 using a machine learning clustering algorithm to examine how the synoptic weather patterns evolve prior to MCS initiation. While the clusters reflect seasonal and regional differences in MCS occurrence, they do not consistently distinguish between MCSs that do and do not produce flash floods. Systems in the southern Great Plains are more flood-prone when a synoptic-scale forcing, located near the system, drives strong water vapor transport from the nearby moisture source. More generally under different synoptic weather patterns, a broader precipitating area is the most dominant factor governing MCS flash flood potential.

atmospheric dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2025

A pronounced decline in northern vegetation resistance to flash droughts from 2001 to 2022

Climate change has led to the transition of droughts into rapid and intensified phenomena known as flash droughts, presenting considerable challenges for risk management, particularly concerning their impact on ecosystem productivity. Quantifying the ecosystem’s capacity to maintain productivity during flash droughts, referred to as ecosystem resistance, is crucial to assess drought impacts. However, it remains uncertain how the resistance of ecosystem productivity to flash drought changes over time. Here we show that vegetation resistance to flash droughts declines by up to 27% (±5%) over the Northern Hemisphere hotspots during 2001-2022, including eastern Asia, western North America, and northern Europe. The notable decline in vegetation resistance is mainly attributed to increased vapour pressure deficit and temperature, and enhanced vegetation structural sensitivity to water availability. Flash droughts pose higher ecological risks than slowly-developing droughts during the growing seasons, where ecosystem productivity experiences faster decline rates with a shorter response time. Our results underscore the limited ecosystem capacity to resist flash droughts under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

Flash Drought as Captured by Reanalysis Data: Disentangling the Contributions of Precipitation Deficit and Excess Evapotranspiration

Flash droughts – uncharacteristically rapid dryings of the land system – are naturally associated with extreme precipitation deficits. Such precipitation deficits, however, do not tell the whole story, for land surface drying can be exacerbated by anomalously high evapotranspiration (ET) rates driven by anomalously high temperatures (e.g., during heatwaves), anomalously high incoming radiation (e.g., from reduced cloudiness), and other meteorological anomalies. In this study, the relative contributions of precipitation and ET anomalies to flash drought generation in the Northern Hemisphere are quantified through the analysis of diagnostic fields contained within the MERRA-2 reanalysis product. Unique to the approach is the explicit treatment of soil moisture impacts on ET through relationships diagnosed from the reanalysis data; under this treatment, an ET anomaly that is negative relative to the local long-term climatological mean is still considered positive in terms of its contribution to a flash drought if it is high for the concurrent value of soil moisture. Maps produced in the analysis show the fraction of flash drought production stemming specifically from ET anomalies and illustrate how ET anomalies for some droughts are related to temperature and radiation anomalies. While ET is found to have an important impact on flash drought production in the central US and in parts of Russia known from past studies to be prone to heatwave-related drought, and while this impact does appear stronger during the onset (first several days) of flash droughts, overall the contribution of ET to these droughts is small relative to the contribution of precipitation deficit.

R D Koster↗

NASA NTRS1973

A survey of compatibility of materials with high pressure oxygen service.

The literature on high pressure oxygen compatibility has been surveyed in order to present the existing state of knowledge. Searches have been conducted of NASA and NBS data retrieval systems. In addition, many individuals, active in the field, were contacted in order to retrieve useful unpublished information. Compatibility data, such as mechanical impact, pneumatic impact, ignition temperature, and flash-and-fire point, were compiled for pressures above 200 bar. Lower pressure data were included if they were useful for extrapolation to pressures above 200 bar. These data, too numerous to be given here, are available from the authors. Brief descriptions of the trends of these data are given. Recommendations for additional high pressure studies are included.

Hust, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS2004

The ALTEA/ALTEINO projects: studying functional effects of microgravity and cosmic radiation

The ALTEA project investigates the risks of functional brain damage induced by particle radiation in space. A modular facility (the ALTEA facility) is being implemented and will be operated in the International Space Station (ISS) to record electrophysiological and behavioral descriptors of brain function and to monitor their time dynamics and correlation with particles and space environment. The focus of the program will be on abnormal visual perceptions (often reported as "light flashes" by astronauts) and the impact on retinal and brain visual structures of particle in microgravity conditions. The facility will be made available to the international scientific community for human neurophysiological, electrophysiological and psychophysics experiments, studies on particle fluxes, and dosimetry. A precursor of ALTEA (the 'Alteino' project) helps set the experimental baseline for the ALTEA experiments, while providing novel information on the radiation environment onboard the ISS and on the brain electrophysiology of the astronauts during orbital flights. Alteino was flown to the ISS on the Soyuz TM34 as part of mission Marco Polo. Controlled ground experiments using mice and accelerator beams complete the experimental strategy of ALTEA. We present here the status of progress of the ALTEA project and preliminary results of the Alteino study on brain dynamics, particle fluxes and abnormal visual perceptions. c2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

manned↗

NASA NTRS2020

Prediction Skill of the 2012 U.S. Great Plains Flash Drought in Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) Models

Flash droughts refer to droughts that develop much more rapidly than normal (i.e., on the order of weeks to a few months). Such droughts can have devastating impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. The ability to predict flash droughts in advance would greatly enhance our preparation for them and potentially mitigate their impacts. We investigated the prediction skill of U.S. flash droughts at subseasonal lead times in global forecast systems participating in the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) project. An additional comprehensive set of hindcasts with NASA?s GEOSv2.1, a model with relatively high prediction skill, was performed to investigate the separate contributions of atmospheric and land initial conditions to flash drought prediction skill. Here we focus on results for the 2012 Great Plains flash drought, noting that the findings based on this event are generally applicable to other U.S. flash droughts. The prediction skill of the SubX models is quite variable. While the skill is limited to less than 2 weeks in most models, it is considerably higher (3-4 weeks or more) for certain models and initialization dates. The enhanced prediction skill is found to originate from two robust sources: 1) accurate soil moisture initialization, and 2) the satisfactory representation of quasi-stationary cross-North Pacific Rossby wave trains that lead to the rapid intensification of flash droughts. Our results corroborate earlier findings that accurate soil moisture initialization is important for skillful subseasonal forecasts and highlight the need for additional research on the sources and predictability of drought-inducing quasi-stationary Rossby waves.

DeAngelis, Anthony M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon During 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation. The model results will be compared to the simulation of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event. In addition, the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation will be examined.

Tao, W.-K.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

Tao, W.-K.↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Detailed Look at the Performance Characteristics of the Lightning Imaging Sensor

The Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) effectively reached its end of life on April 15, 2015 after 17+ years of observation. Given the wealth of information in the archived LIS lightning data, and growing use of optical observations of lightning from space throughout the world, it is still of importance to better understand LIS calibration and performance characteristics. In this work, we continue our efforts to quantify the optical characteristics of the LIS pixel array, and to further characterize the detection efficiency and location accuracy of LIS. The LIS pixel array was partitioned into four quadrants, each having its own signal amplifier and digital conversion hardware. In addition, the sensor optics resulted in a decreasing sensitivity with increasing displacement from the center of the array. These engineering limitations resulted in differences in the optical emissions detected across the pixel array. Our work to date has shown a 20% increase in the count of the lightning events detected in one of the LIS quadrants, because of a lower detection threshold. In this study, we will discuss our work in progress on these limitations, and their potential impact on the group- and flash-level parameters.

Zhang, Daile↗

NASA NTRS2006

A Probable Taurid Impact on the Moon

On November 7, 2005, at 23:41:52 UT, observers located at the Marshall Space Flight Center captured the flash produced by a kilogram-size meteoroid striking the lunar surface. Photometric analysis of the event video, combined with the plausible assumptions of a luminous efficiency of 2x10" and that the meteoroid was a member of the Taurid meteoroid stream, yield a striking power of approximately 640 lbs of TNT and a mass of approximately 3.8 kg. Even though no confirming independent observations are known to exist, there is high confidence in the impact origin of the flash; reasonable attempts have been made to eliminate other possibilities, such as cosmic ray hits on the CCD and glints from satellites that may have crossed the lunar disk near the impact time.

Cooke, William J.↗