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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Moving With Parasites: Relationships Between Animal Movement and Infectious Disease Across Systems and Scales

Animal movement patterns are important for ecological processes such as population dynamics and infectious disease transmission. Because animals move in response to environmental cues like temperature and precipitation, changes to the environment – whether they are seasonal, interannual, or long-term – can change these processes, leading to changes in population sizes or infectious disease prevalence across space and time. My work uses a combination of simulation modeling and data analysis at multiple spatial and temporal scales to understand the environment-movement-disease connection in diverse animal taxa and environments. In this seminar, I will highlight the diverse ways that the environment can influence infectious disease dynamics via changes to animal movement patterns, including through a global study of migration in ungulate populations, a study of American White Ibis adapting to urban environments in South Florida, and examples of avian influenza prevalence in wild waterfowl. Together, these examples highlight that understanding environment-movement interactions can help predict how infectious disease dynamics might change in the future, as changes to climate, land use, and habitats alter animal movement patterns.

Animal movement↗

NASA NTRS2010

Next Generation Respiratory Viral Vaccine System: Advanced and Emerging Bioengineered Human Lung Epithelia Model (HLEM) Organoid Technology

Acute respiratory infections, including pneumonia and influenza, are the S t" leading cause of United States and worldwide deaths. Newly emerging pathogens signaled the need for an advanced generation of vaccine technology.. Human bronchial-tracheal epithelial tissue was bioengineered to detect, identify, host and study the pathogenesis of acute respiratory viral disease. The 3-dimensional (3D) human lung epithelio-mesechymal tissue-like assemblies (HLEM TLAs) share characteristics with human respiratory epithelium: tight junctions, desmosomes, microvilli, functional markers villin, keratins and production of tissue mucin. Respiratory Syntial Virus (RSV) studies demonstrate viral growth kinetics and membrane bound glycoproteins up to day 20 post infection in the human lung-orgainoid infected cell system. Peak replication of RSV occurred on day 10 at 7 log10 particles forming units per ml/day. HLEM is an advanced virus vaccine model and biosentinel system for emergent viral infectious diseases to support DoD global surveillance and military readiness.

Goodwin, Thomas J.↗

NASA NTRS1996

From Individuals to Epidemics

Heterogeneous mixing fundamentally changes the dynamics of infectious diseases; finding ways to incorporate it into models represents a critical challenge. Phenomenological approaches are deficient in their lack of attention to underlying processes; individual-based models, on the other hand, may obscure the essential interactions in a sea of detail. The challenge then is to find ways to bridge these levels of description, starting from individual-based models and deriving macroscopic descriptions from them that retain essential detail, and filter out the rest. In this paper, attempts to achieve this transformation are described for a class of models where non-random mixing arises from the spatial localization of interactions. In general, the epidemic threshold is found to be larger owing to spatial localization than for a homogeneous mixing population. An improved estimate of the dynamics is developed by the use of moment equations, and a simple estimate of the threshold in terms of a 'dyad heuristic'. For more general models in which local infection is not described by mass action, the connection with related partial differential equations is investigated.

Levin, Simon A.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Predicting and Mitigating Outbreaks of Vector-Borne Disease Utilizing Satellite Remote Sensing Technology and Models

The Public Health application area focuses on Earth science applications to public health and safety, particularly regarding infectious disease, emergency preparedness and response, and environmental health issues. The application explores issues of toxic and pathogenic exposure, as well as natural and man-made hazards and their effects, for risk characterization/mitigation and improvements to health and safety. The program elements of the NASA Applied Sciences Program are: Agricultural Efficiency, Air Quality, Climate, Disaster Management, Ecological Forecasting, Water Resources, Weather, and Public Health.

Estes, Sue M.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Epidemiologic Factors Supporting Triage of Infected Dog Patients Admitted to a Veterinary Hospital Biological Isolation and Containment Unit

The teaching hospital of the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine at the University of Lisbon hosts a Biological Isolation and Containment Unit (BICU) for the hospitalization of both confirmed and suspected animals of an infectious disease. This study targets the BICU dog population to identify and characterize the most frequent infectious diseases recorded in a 7-year period. Several epidemiologic factors were analyzed for their significance to triage infected cases. During the study period, 534 dogs were admitted, of which 263 (49.3%) had a confirmed infectious disease diagnosis: parvovirosis (49.4%; n = 130); leptospirosis (21.7%; n = 57); multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacterial infection; (10.6%; n = 28), and canine distemper (9.9%; n = 26). Several potential risk factors for these diseases were identified: age under 2 years old (p < 0.001), incomplete vaccination for parvovirosis (p < 0.001), age ≥ 10 years old (p < 0.001), and the presence of concomitant disorders for MDR-infected cases (p = 0.03). Logistic regression models were constructed to classify cases and controls. The sensitivity and specificity estimates were very high (>0.83) for parvovirosis, MDR, and distemper infections. A lower sensitivity (0.77) was obtained for identifying cases with leptospirosis. In conclusion, infectious diseases are frequent, hence, it is essential to decrease their occurrence through effective preventive measures such as vaccination. The constructed logistic models can also help in triaging admitted dogs with a potential infectious disease.

Machado, Inês Cunha (ORCID:0000000238151125)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Within-Host Phenotypic Evolution and the Population-Level Control of Chronic Viral Infections by Treatment and Prophylaxis

Chronic viral infections can persist for decades spanning thousands of viral generations, leading to a highly diverse population of viruses with its own complex evolutionary history. We propose an expandable mathematical framework for understanding how the emergence of genetic and phenotypic diversity affects the population-level control of those infections by both non-curative treatment and chemo-prophylactic measures. Our frameworks allows both neutral and phenotypic evolution, and we consider the specific evolution of contagiousness, resistance to therapy, and efficacy of prophylaxis. We compute both the controlled and uncontrolled, population-level basic reproduction number accounting for the within-host evolutionary process where new phenotypes emerge and are lost in infected persons, which we also extend to include both treatment and prophylactic control efforts. We used these results to discuss the conditions under which the relative efficacy of prophylactic versus therapeutic methods of control are superior. Finally, we give expressions for the endemic equilibrium of these models for certain constrained versions of the within-host evolutionary model providing a potential method for estimating within-host evolutionary parameters from population-level genetic sequence data.

sensitivity analysis↗

DOE OSTI2023

Socioeconomically-inspired modeling to justify use of fine-grain mobility data

When designing measures to control infectious disease spread, it is crucial to understand the structure of the population for which interventions are being implemented. Recent work has highlighted the need for models that incorporate demographic heterogeneity not just in age structure but also by socioeconomic status (SES). Appropriately capturing additional sources of population heterogeneity requires considerable data and model development. To understand the potential disagreement between SES-explicit or SES-agnostic disease models, we adapted Sandia’s Adaptive Recovery Model (ARM) model to consider differences in contact structure and mortality by Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) on a theoretical network. We also incorporated an Average network that did not consider SVI. By exploring disparities in vaccine and PPE uptake by SES and comparing to Average networks, as well as analyzing the influence of global vs. local contact, we found that the two model constructions often predicted different outcomes. Whether these differences are truly reflective of incorporating SES, and which model most closely represents reality, merits further investigation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning mathematical models for incidence estimation during pandemics

Accurate estimates of the incidence of infectious diseases are key for the control of epidemics. However, healthcare systems are often unable to test the population exhaustively, especially when asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic cases are widespread; this leads to significant and systematic under-reporting of the real incidence. Here, we propose a machine learning approach to estimate the incidence of a pandemic in real-time, using reported cases and the overall test rate. In particular, we use Bayesian symbolic regression to automatically learn the closed-form mathematical models that most parsimoniously describe incidence. We develop and validate our models using COVID-19 incidence values for nine different countries, confirming their ability to accurately predict daily incidence. Remarkably, despite the differences in epidemic trajectories and dynamics across countries, we find that a single model for all countries offers a more parsimonious description and is more predictive of actual incidence compared to separate models for each country. Our results show the potential to accurately model incidence in real-time using closed-form mathematical models, providing a valuable tool for public health decision-makers.

Fajardo-Fontiveros, Oscar (ORCID:0000000207058972)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning in Infectious Disease for Risk Factor Identification and Hypothesis Generation: Proof of Concept Using Invasive Candidiasis

Machine learning (ML) models can handle large data sets without assuming underlying relationships and can be useful for evaluating disease characteristics, yet they are more commonly used for predicting individual disease risk than for identifying factors at the population level. We offer a proof of concept applying random forest (RF) algorithms to Candida-positive hospital encounters in an electronic health record database of patients in the United States. Candida-positive encounters were extracted from the Cerner HealthFacts database; invasive infections were laboratory-positive sterile site Candida infections. Features included demographics, admission source, care setting, physician specialty, diagnostic and procedure codes, and medications received before the first positive Candida culture. We used RF to assess risk factors for 3 outcomes: any invasive candidiasis (IC) vs non-IC, within-species IC vs non-IC (eg, invasive C. glabrata vs noninvasive C. glabrata), and between-species IC (eg, invasive C. glabrata vs all other IC). Fourteen of 169 (8%) variables were consistently identified as important features in the ML models. When evaluating within-species IC, for example, invasive C. glabrata vs non-invasive C. glabrata, we identified known features like central venous catheters, intensive care unit stay, and gastrointestinal operations. In contrast, important variables for invasive C. glabrata vs all other IC included renal disease and medications like diabetes therapeutics, cholesterol medications, and antiarrhythmics. Known and novel risk factors for IC were identified using ML, demonstrating the hypothesis-generating utility of this approach for infectious disease conditions about which less is known, specifically at the species level or for rarer diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A porcine ligated loop model reveals new insight into the host immune response against Campylobacter jejuni

The symptoms of infectious diarrheal disease are mediated by a combination of a pathogen’s virulence factors and the host immune system. Campylobacter jejuni is the leading bacterial cause of diarrhea worldwide due to its near-ubiquitous zoonotic association with poultry. One of the outstanding questions is to what extent the bacteria are responsible for the diarrheal symptoms via intestinal cell necrosis versus immune cell initiated tissue damage. To determine the stepwise process of inflammation that leads to diarrhea, we used a piglet ligated intestinal loop model to study the intestinal response to C. jejuni. Pigs were chosen due to the anatomical similarity between the porcine and the human intestine. We found that the abundance of neutrophil related proteins increased in the intestinal lumen during C. jejuni infection, including proteins related to neutrophil migration (neutrophil elastase and MMP9), actin reorganization (Arp2/3), and antimicrobial proteins (lipocalin-2, myeloperoxidase, S100A8, and S100A9). The appearance of neutrophil proteins also corresponded with increases of the inflammatory cytokines IL-8 and TNF-a. Compared to infection with the C. jejuni wild-type strain, infection with the noninvasive C. jejuni ?ciaD mutant resulted in a blunted inflammatory response, with less inflammatory cytokines and neutrophil markers. These findings indicate that intestinal inflammation is driven by C. jejuni virulence and that neutrophils are the predominant cell type responding to C. jejuni infection. We propose that this model can be used as a platform to study the early immune events during infection with intestinal pathogens.

disease model, INNATE IMMUNITY, proteomics, intest↗

DOE OSTI2022

Identifying mitigation strategies for $\mathrm{COVID}$-$\mathrm{19}$ superspreading on flights using models that account for passenger movement

Despite commercial airlines mandating masks, there have been multiple documented events of COVID-19 superspreading on flights. Conventional models do not adequately explain superspreading patterns on flights, with infection spread wider than expected from proximity based on passenger seating. An important reason for this is that models typically do not consider the movement of passengers during the flight, boarding, or deplaning. Understanding the risks for each of these aspects could provide insight into effective mitigation measures. We modeled infection risk from seating and fine-grained movement patterns – boarding, deplaning, and inflight movement. We estimated infection model parameters from a prior superspreading event. We validated the model and the impact of interventions using available data from three flights, including cabin layout and seat locations of infected and uninfected passengers, to suggest interventions to mitigate COVID-19 superspreading events during air travel. Specifically, we studied: 1) London to Hanoi with 201 passengers, including 13 secondary infections among passengers; 2) Singapore to Hangzhou with 321 passengers, including 12 to 14 secondary infections; 3) a non-superspreading event on a private jet in Japan with 9 passengers and no secondary infections. Here our results show that the inclusion of passenger movement better explains the infection spread patterns than conventional models do. We also found that FFP2/N95 mask usage would have reduced infection by 95–100%, while cloth masks would have reduced it by only 40–80%. Results indicate that leaving the middle seat vacant is effective in reducing infection, and the effectiveness increases when combined with good quality masks. However, with a good mask, the risk is quite low even without the middle seats being empty. Our results suggest the need for more stringent guidelines to reduce aviation-related superspreading events of COVID-19.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Defective Interfering Viral Particle Treatment Reduces Clinical Signs and Protects Hamsters from Lethal Nipah Virus Disease

Defective interfering particles (DIs) contain a considerably smaller genome than the parental virus but retain replication competency. As DIs can directly or indirectly alter propagation kinetics of the parental virus, they offer a novel approach to antiviral therapy, capitalizing on knowledge from natural infection. However, efforts to translate in vitro inhibition to in vivo screening models remain limited. We investigated the efficacy of virus-like particles containing DI genomes (therapeutic infectious particles [TIPs]) in the Syrian hamster model of lethal Nipah virus (NiV) disease. We found that coadministering a high dose of TIPs intraperitoneally with virus challenge improved clinical course and reduced lethality. To mimic natural exposure, we also evaluated lower-dose TIP delivery and virus challenge intranasally, finding equally efficacious reduction in disease severity and overall lethality. Eliminating TIP replicative capacity decreased efficacy, suggesting protection via direct inhibition. These data provide evidence that TIP-mediated treatment can confer protection against disease and lethal outcome in a robust animal NiV model, supporting further development of TIP treatment for NiV and other high-consequence pathogens.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2025

Influence of Microgravity on Bacterial Pathogen Virulence and Immune Cell Function—Relevance for Infectious Disease Risk During Spaceflight

Spaceflight has measurable impacts on astronaut immune profiles as well as the virulence patterns of bacterial pathogens. Data with respect to human immunity indicate diminished T and NK cell function, altered cytokine profiles, persistent inflammation, and latent herpesvirus reactivation. Furthermore, evaluation of International Space Station (ISS) crewmembers gives evidence of compromised immunity, including atypical allergy, infectious disease, and dermatitis. Data with respect to certain human bacterial pathogens suggest modified virulence that may be enhanced. It is therefore critical to examine this interaction of immune dysregulation and increased microbial virulence and whether it might synergistically increase the risk of infectious disease to crew members. The goal of this study is to use modeled microgravity to study the impact of medically significant ISS bacteria that may have altered virulence on the immune response of the host. This study consists of two primary aims to assess this relationship. First, immune cells will be collected from healthy test subjects and cultured in static or in modeled microgravity conditions together with either control pathogens or with microgravity conditioned pathogens that were grown in bioreactors. Second, immune cells will be collected from astronauts before, during, and after flight and co-cultured with the control or the microgravity conditioned bacteria. Three pathogens were selected for this investigation: Pseudomonas aeruginosa , Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis and Burkholderia cepacia . Previously, the optimal cell to bacteria ratios that produce the greatest immune cell responses have been derived for these three bacteria. Cellular activation, as determined by the induction of cell surface activation markers and cytokine profiles, will be measured. Interactions between cells and bacteria will be assessed using fluorescent and electron microscopy techniques. This study will provide critical information to help understand how microgravity alters microbial virulence and the associated infectious disease risk to crewmembers during spaceflight missions. Over the past year, the Immunology and Microbiology laboratories at NASA Johnson Space Center have collaborated to process the astronaut subject samples to complete the last year of the flight portion of this study. This included the completion of four astronaut subjects full mission sampling sets. Sample processing included innate and adaptive cell flow cytometry as well as analysis of cytokine concentrations in the supernatant. The ground control segment of the study will take place during FY25 which involves parallel infections run under static and clinostat conditions. The acquired data sets over this 3-year study are now being analyzed to provide a comprehensive set of results and conclusions that will contribute to a more effective risk assessment for astronauts during spaceflight regarding this host-pathogen context.

Immunology↗

DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting influenza activity using machine-learned mobility map

Human mobility is a primary driver of infectious disease spread. However, existing data is limited in availability, coverage, granularity, and timeliness. Data-driven forecasts of disease dynamics are crucial for decision-making by health officials and private citizens alike. In this work, we focus on a machine-learned anonymized mobility map (hereon referred to as AMM) aggregated over hundreds of millions of smartphones and evaluate its utility in forecasting epidemics. We factor AMM into a metapopulation model to retrospectively forecast influenza in the USA and Australia. We show that the AMM model performs on-par with those based on commuter surveys, which are sparsely available and expensive. We also compare it with gravity and radiation based models of mobility, and find that the radiation model’s performance is quite similar to AMM and commuter flows. Additionally, we demonstrate our model’s ability to predict disease spread even across state boundaries. Our work contributes towards developing timely infectious disease forecasting at a global scale using human mobility datasets expanding their applications in the area of infectious disease epidemiology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Low Dose Radiation and Radiation Countermeasures on Infection By Spaceflight Analogue Cultured Salmonella Using 3-D Biomimetic Human Tissue Models

While both microgravity and radiation are major biological stressors associated with the spaceflight environment, their cumulative impact on host-pathogen interactions and infectious disease risks are rarely considered. This is critical to address, since the cumulative effects of these stressors during spaceflight may result in unexpected negative impacts on crew health and performance that neither condition alone would predict, thus limiting the ability to develop effective countermeasures. Previously, we showed that both spaceflight and spaceflight analogue culture increased the virulence and pathogenesis-related characteristics of the foodborne pathogen, Salmonella Typhimurium (S. Typhimurium), which is responsible for disqualification of food destined for the International Space Station and Salmonella spp. have been found aboard NASA spacecraft. Recently, we demonstrated that spaceflight-analogue culture of S. Typhimurium increased its ability to infect 3-D biomimetic human intestinal tissue models. In a separate study, we showed low dose radiation damaged our 3-D intestinal models. The primary objective of this proposal is to evaluate the possibility that low dose radiation will exacerbate the already increased bacterial pathogenicity of S. Typhimurium observed following spaceflight analogue culture. In addition, we will determine the impact of a radiation countermeasure to provide protection against both radiation and pathogen-induced tissue damage and inflammation. Hypothesis: The already enhanced infection potential of spaceflight analogue cultured S. Typhimurium will be further exacerbated when used to infect host cells exposed to low dose radiation and this enhanced pathogenicity can be mitigated by a radioprotective compound. Aims: 1.Characterize the impact of spaceflight-analogue culture on the ability of S. Typhimurium to infect 3-D biomimetic intestinal tissue models before and after exposure to low dose radiation. 2. Evaluate the ability of the radioprotective compound, EC-18, to protect 3-D intestinal models from low dose radiation, S. Typhimurium infection, and the cumulative impact of these stressors. Significance: Current infectious disease risk assessments for spaceflight do not consider the potential for increased susceptibility to infection and disease resulting from exposure to low dose radiation, which is a critical consideration. This study will provide key evidence to determine if exposure to low dose radiation may be a factor in astronaut susceptibility to infection during long duration exploration missions and the impact of selected countermeasures to mitigate that risk to crew health. We have completed infection studies of the 3-D biomimetic intestinal tissue models and are currently analyzing the data.

Jennifer Barrila↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Low Dose Radiation and Radiation Countermeasures on Infection by Spaceflight Analogue Cultured Salmonella Using 3-D Biomimetic Human Tissue Models

Jennifer Barrila↗

NASA NTRS1992

Inactivation of a model coliphage virus in water by iodine

Until now, NASA's space water reuse research program has not considered the transport of water-borne infectious enteric viruses; however, viral diseases probably are a signifficant concern in long-duration space missions. To simplify monitoring and prediction of pathogen distribution, model indicator strains historically have been used. In this research, the male specific RNA coliphage MS-2 is used as a model of enteric viruses due to their similar size and biochemical composition. Inactivation of some water-borne enteric viruses by iodine has previously been characterized. In this paper, iodine inactivation of the model coliphage MS-2 in buffered water is compared with earlier bench-scale disinfection survival data and with survival in iodinated simulated shower water used in a test water recycling system.

Brion, Gail M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Regional Relative Risk, a Physics-Based Metric for Characterizing Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission

Airborne infectious disease transmission events occur over a wide range of spatial scales and can be an important means of disease transmission. Physics- and biology-based models can assist in predicting airborne transmission events, overall disease incidence, and disease control strategy efficacy. We describe a new theory that extends current approaches for the case in which an individual is infected by a single airborne particle, including the scenario in which numerous infectious particles are present in the air but only one causes infection. A single infectious particle can contain more than one pathogenic microorganism and be physically larger than the pathogen itself. This approach allows robust relative risk estimates even when there is wide variation in (i) individual exposures and (ii) the individual response to that exposure (the pathogen dose-response function can take any mathematical form and vary by individual). Based on this theory, we propose the regional relative risk—a new metric, distinct from the traditional relative risk metric, that compares the risk between two regions. In theory, these regions can range from individual rooms to large geographic areas. In this paper, we apply the regional relative risk metric to outdoor disease transmission events over spatial scales ranging from 50 m to 20 km, demonstrating that in many common cases minimal input information is required to use the metric. Also, we demonstrate that the model predictions are consistent with data from prior outbreaks. Future efforts could apply and validate this theory for other spatial scales, such as transmission within indoor environments. This work provides context for (i) the initial stages of an airborne disease outbreak and (ii) larger-scale disease spread, including unexpected low-probability disease “sparks” that potentially affect remote populations, a key practical issue in controlling airborne disease outbreaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗