TRENTo initial condition model and the isobar collisions
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Atomic, Nuclear and Particle Physics↗
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ON THE SURFACE TOPOGRAPHY OF LOCAL OVERHEATING AND PLASMA FORMATION DUE TO INITIAL CONDITION PERTURBATIONS SOURCING THE ELECTROTHERMAL INSTABILITY ON HIGH-CURRENT-DENSITY CONDUCTORS
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Hatch, Maren Whiting↗
A survey of unsupervised learning methods for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification in black-box-type problems
Constructing surrogate models for uncertainty quantification (UQ) on complex partial differential equations (PDEs) having inherently high-dimensional O(10 n ), n ≥ 2, stochastic inputs (e.g., forcing terms, boundary conditions, initial conditions) poses tremendous challenges. The “curse of dimensionality” can be addressed with suitable unsupervised learning techniques used as a pre-processing tool to encode inputs onto lower-dimensional subspaces while retaining its structural information and meaningful properties. In this work, we review and investigate thirteen dimension reduction methods including linear and nonlinear, spectral, blind source separation, convex and non-convex methods and utilize the resulting embeddings to construct a mapping to quantities of interest via polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). Here, we refer to the general proposed approach as manifold PCE (m-PCE), where manifold corresponds to the latent space resulting from any of the studied dimension reduction methods. To investigate the capabilities and limitations of these methods we conduct numerical tests for three physics-based systems (treated as black-boxes) having high-dimensional stochastic inputs of varying complexity modeled as both Gaussian and non-Gaussian random fields to investigate the effect of the intrinsic dimensionality of input data. We demonstrate both the advantages and limitations of the unsupervised learning methods and we conclude that a suitable m-PCE model provides a cost-effective approach compared to alternative algorithms proposed in the literature, including recently proposed expensive deep neural network-based surrogates and can be readily applied for high-dimensional UQ in stochastic PDEs.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Mechanical failure of fresh nuclear grade iron–chromium–aluminum (FeCrAl) cladding under simulated hot zero power reactivity initiated accident conditions
The reactivity initiated accident (RIA) is a postulated accident in light water reactors initiated by a rapid increase in reactivity which causes an increase in fission rate and fuel temperature. One potential mode of fuel system failure during RIA is pellet cladding mechanical interaction (PCMI) due to the rapid thermal expansion of the fuel pellet. Simulated PCMI experiments were performed by rapidly pressurizing iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) cladding tube samples using a hydraulic modified burst test system, causing the specimens to burst under a biaxial loading path. Deformation and rupture of the specimens were tracked with a telecentric lens and high-speed camera system. Outer surface strains were calculated using digital image correlation (DIC) on speckle patterns painted on the specimens’ outer surfaces. Experiments were conducted at approximately 275 °C, representative of hot zero power RIA conditions. The failure hoop strain was DIC-calculated between approximately 1.8–3.4%, corresponding to quasi-static energy depositions of approximately 110–260 calories per gram UO 2 assuming initial pellet-cladding contact. These conditions are very similar to the proposed energy deposition limit of 150 calories per gram UO 2 for unirradiated zirconium-based cladding in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Draft Regulatory Guide 1327. A very small strain rate dependence was observed in the data, with the magnitude of the failure hoop strain decreasing slightly with increasing strain rate. This observed dependence may be relevant because the FeCrAl cladding strain rate will be approximately 20% higher than in zirconium-based cladding due to the harder neutron spectrum and resultant shorter neutron generation time.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Quasiclassical sampling and Wigner sampling of initial vibrational coordinates and momenta for polyatomic molecules in Monte Carlo molecular dynamics simulations
In a quasiclassical trajectory simulation, the vibrational modes are initialised with quantised vibrational energies, but vibrational phases are sampled by Monte Carlo. This requires an algorithm to assign coordinates and momenta to the various atoms. In this work, we present two methods for implementing this for nonrotating polyatomic molecules, namely, fixed-energy vibrational-state-selected initial conditions and thermal initial conditions. We also present a method for initiating classical trajectories with a ground-state Wigner distribution. These vibrational treatments are sufficient to initialise trajectories for unimolecular processes, and we also show how they can be applied to simulate bimolecular collision processes. The treatments of unimolecular and bimolecular collision processes are available in two Python codes called wigner_state_selected.py and bimolecular_collision.py, respectively, which will generate initial condition files that are recognisable by the SHARC and SHARC-MN computer programs for dynamics calculations. Both codes are available as standalone programs, as well as being included in SHARC-MN, and they will be included in future versions of SHARC. Here, the methods implemented in these codes are mostly also available in the ANT computer program, and those that are not available in ANT will be incorporated in future versions of ANT.
Wigner distribution↗
Testing Accident Tolerant Fuels in Reactivity Initiated Accident Conditions -- PIE Results
Initial PIE results of the SETH series of transient irradiation experiments performed in TREAT.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Triso Analysis Tool For Predictive Source Terms
Source term modeling for TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel has been performed for previous reactor designs, but few are available in the open literature. Thus, there is a need to develop a simple, versatile, and mechanistic model of fission product release and transport in gas reactor cores that can be applied to a variety of reactors through user inputs and reactor-specific radionuclide inventories. To meet this need, the TRISO Analysis Tool for Predictive Source terms (TRISO-ATOPS) was developed. This model calculates the release of the key safety-important fission products by diffusion through the kernel, silicon carbide and graphite based on fuel and graphite temperatures in the reactor under normal operation. These releases from the fuel enter the coolant where they can plate-out on cooler surfaces. A clean-up model is included for designs with a coolant purification system for removing fission gases. This initial distribution of fission products in the reactor serves as an initial condition for potential releases under postulated accident conditions. From this initial condition, the model calculates the fission product release for any transient temperature profile, and the fission product releases can then be used to assess radiological dose to the workers and the public using conventional radiological dose tools. Data on the diffusion of fission products is based on historic German TRISO experiments and the more current Department of Energy Advanced Gas Reactor TRISO fuel development program. The example cases in this work demonstrate the flexibility of the model
Stoyer, Benjamin [Idaho National Laboratory (INL),↗
Initial Land Use/Cover Distribution Substantially Affects Global Carbon and Local Temperature Projections in the Integrated Earth System Model
Initial land cover distribution varies among Earth system models, an uncertainty in initial conditions that can substantially affect carbon and climate projections. We use the integrated Earth System Model to show that a 3.9 M km2 difference in 2005 global forest area (9–14% of total forest area) generates uncertainties in initial atmospheric CO2 concentration, terrestrial carbon, and local temperature that propagate through a future simulation following the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. By 2095, the initial 6 ppmv uncertainty range increases to 9 ppmv and the initial 26 PgC uncertainty range in terrestrial carbon increases to 33 PgC. The initial uncertainty range in annual average local temperature of -0.74 to 0.96 °C persists throughout the future simulation, with a seasonal maximum in Dec-Jan-Feb. These results highlight the importance of accurately characterizing historical land use and land cover to reduce overall initial condition uncertainty.
Di Vittorio, Alan↗
Where did the tumor start? An inverse solver with sparse localization for tumor growth models
In this work, we present a numerical scheme for solving an inverse problem for parameter estimation in tumor growth models for glioblastomas, a form of aggressive primary brain tumor. The growth model is a reaction–diffusion partial differential equation (PDE) for the tumor concentration. We use a PDE-constrained optimization formulation for the inverse problem. The unknown parameters are the reaction coefficient (proliferation), the diffusion coefficient (infiltration), and the initial condition field for the tumor PDE. Segmentation of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans drive the inverse problem where segmented tumor regions serve as partial observations of the tumor concentration. Like most cases in clinical practice, we use data from a single time snapshot. Moreover, the precise time relative to the initiation of the tumor is unknown, which poses an additional difficulty for inversion. We perform a frozen-coefficient spectral analysis and show that the inverse problem is severely ill-posed. We introduce a biophysically motivated regularization on the structure and magnitude of the tumor initial condition. In particular, we assume that the tumor starts at a few locations (enforced with a sparsity constraint on the initial condition of the tumor) and that the initial condition magnitude in the maximum norm is equal to one. We solve the resulting optimization problem using an inexact quasi-Newton method combined with a compressive sampling algorithm for the sparsity constraint. Our implementation uses PETSc and AccFFT libraries. We conduct numerical experiments on synthetic and clinical images to highlight the improved performance of our solver over a previously existing solver that uses standard two-norm regularization for the calibration parameters. The existing solver is unable to localize the initial condition. Our new solver can localize the initial condition and recover infiltration and proliferation. In clinical datasets (for which the ground truth is unknown), our solver results in qualitatively different solutions compared to the two-norm regularized solver.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
BISON validation of FeCrAl cladding mechanical failure during simulated reactivity-initiated accident conditions*
Here, a reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) is a postulated design basis accident in light water reactors (LWRs) in which a rapid reactivity insertion induces a fission rate increase and a fuel pellet temperature rise. During RIA, the fuel pellet thermally expands and may cause pellet-cladding mechanical interaction (PCMI). Separate effects PCMI tests were performed on C26M FeCrAl cladding tube samples, introducing biaxial stress via a well understood modified burst test (MBT) system. A high-speed camera in the MBT system captured the projections, covering a 360° view of the cladding deformation and enabling a digital image correlation (DIC) method to quantify the surface strains with high fidelity. Representative hot zero-power RIA mechanical loading conditions were applied to the sample, and the test duration ranged from 20 to 500 ms at an average temperature of 573 K. BISON finite element–based fuel performance code modeling was performed against the high-fidelity DIC data produced from the MBTs. Validation calculations were conducted with 2D models and systematically compared with test data of the burst time, burst pressure, burst hoop strains, and hoop strain rates. Based on the behaviors from the separate effects test, BISON calculations satisfactorily predicted the cladding deformation behaviors. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify highly influential mechanical properties responsible for the cladding failure behavior during the MBT experiments. The results highlight the significance of the cladding's mechanical strength in governing cladding strain, followed by the significance of the mechanical interactions between the pellet and the cladding.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Correcting the PFNS for more consistent fission modeling
For FY20, we had a deliverable to write a report detailing efforts to simultaneously evaluate both the prompt neutron multiplicity, $\overline{ν}$, and the prompt neutron fission neutron spectrum, PFNS, using CGMF. CGMF is the LANL-developed fission fragment decay code that consistently evaporates prompt neutrons and γ rays using the Hauser-Feshbach statistical theory of compound reactions. The decay begins by constructing the initial conditions of the fission fragments, then decaying each one from the excited state by neutrons and γ rays, conserving energy, momentum, spin, and parity in each step of the emission. The initial conditions of the fragments, along with the multiplicity, energy, and direction of each emitted neutron or γ ray, are recorded, allowing for the full reconstruction of the fission event. These event histories allow us to reconstruct average quantities, as well as correlations between observables, that can be compared with experimental or evaluated data. In that initial report, although there was already a favorable comparison between $\overline{ν}$ from CGMF, experiment, and the current ENDF/B-VIII.0 evaluation, we showed that there was still significant work to be done to improve the PFNS from CGMF. Historically, the PFNS is calculated too soft by Hauser-Feshbach fission models, and CGMF is no exception. The incorrect shape presents a significant challenge in fission modeling, including for our understanding of the fission process and for our ability to consistently calculate and predict a variety of prompt fission observables (such as fission fragment initial conditions, neutron and γ-ray multiplicities and energies, and the correlations between all observables). In our companion report, we detail our success in using CGMF to evaluate $\overline{ν}$. Although not included in the optimization explicitly, we also keep the initial conditions of the fission fragments physical, along with reproducing reasonably well the neutron multiplicity distribution. As we would expect from the sensitivities calculations from, the average neutron energies change very little from the $\overline{ν}$ optimization along with the PFNS (as will be shown in Sec. 2.6). The conclusion was that the global and statistical models would have to be investigated instead of just the fission fragment initial conditions (as is sufficient for $\overline{ν}$). This report details those efforts.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Single classical field description of interacting scalar fields
In this report we test the degree to which interacting Bosonic systems can be approximated by a classical field as total occupation number is increased. This is done with our publicly available code repository, QIBS, a new massively parallel solver for these systems. We use a number of toy models well studied in the literature and track when the classical field description admits quantum corrections, called the quantum breaktime. This allows us to test claims in the literature regarding the rate of convergence of these systems to the classical evolution. We test a number of initial conditions, including coherent states, number eigenstates, and field number states. We find that of these initial conditions, only number eigenstates do not converge to the classical evolution as occupation number is increased. We find that systems most similar to scalar field dark matter exhibit a logarithmic enhancement in the quantum breaktime with total occupation number. Systems with contact interactions or with field number state initial conditions, and linear dispersions, exhibit a power law enhancement. Finally, we find that the breaktime scaling depends on both model interactions and initial conditions.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Neural chaos: A spectral stochastic neural operator
Building surrogate models for operators with uncertainty quantification capabilities is essential for many engineering applications where randomness–such as variability in material properties, boundary conditions, and initial conditions–is unavoidable. Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) is widely recognized as a go-to method for constructing stochastic surrogates in both intrusive and non-intrusive ways, and it has recently been used in the context of operator learning. However, its application becomes challenging for complex or high-dimensional processes, as achieving accuracy requires higher-order polynomials, which can increase computational demand and/or the risk of overfitting. Furthermore, PCE requires specialized treatments to manage random variables that are not independent, and these treatments may be problem-dependent or may fail with increasing complexity. Here, in this work, we adopt the same formalism as the spectral expansion used in PCE; however, we replace the classical polynomial basis functions with neural network (NN) basis functions to leverage their expressivity. To achieve this, we propose an algorithm that identifies NN-parameterized basis functions in a purely data-driven manner, without any prior assumptions about the joint distribution of the random variables involved, whether independent or dependent, or about their marginal distributions. The proposed algorithm identifies each NN-parameterized basis function sequentially, ensuring they are orthogonal with respect to the data distribution. The basis functions are constructed directly on the joint stochastic variables without requiring a tensor product structure or assuming independence of the random variables. This approach may offer greater flexibility for complex stochastic models, while simplifying implementation compared to the tensor product structures typically used in PCE to handle random vectors. This is particularly advantageous given the current state of open-source packages, where building and training neural networks can be done with just a few lines of code and extensive community support. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme through several numerical examples of varying complexity and provide comparisons with classical PCE.
Polynomial chaos expansion↗
The June 2012 North American Derecho: A Testbed for Evaluating Regional and Global Climate Modeling Systems at Cloud‐Resolving Scales
Abstract In this paper, we introduce a testbed for evaluating and comparing climate modeling systems at cloud resolving scales using hindcasts of the June 2012 North American derecho. To demonstrate its utility for model intercomparison, the testbed is applied to two models: the regionally‐refined Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) at 6.5, 3.25 and 1.625 km grid spacing and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 3.2 and 1.6 km grid spacing. We find the simulation results to be highly sensitive to the initial conditions (ICs), initialization time, and model configurations, with ICs from the Rapid Refresh producing the best simulation. Significant improvement is identified in both models as horizontal grid spacing is refined. While a propagation delay of approximately 2 hr is found in both models, SCREAM at 1.625 km simulates the observed bow echo structure of the derecho well and predicts strong surface gusts that exceed 30 m/s. In comparison, WRF has difficulty producing surface wind over 25 m/s, with wind gusts in WRF 42%–46% lower than in SCREAM. However, WRF has a lower bias in simulating cloud top temperature and extent, but overestimates precipitation intensity. Both models reproduce the observed outgoing longwave radiation spatial patterns well (Pearson correlation >0.88), but, compared with NEXRAD observations, simulate generally larger areas of composite radar reflectivity >40 dBZ and underestimate the precipitating area by ∼47%.
2012 North American derecho↗
Uncertainty Propagation from Experiment Measurements to Modeling Approaches: A Case for SMR Steam Entrainment Testing
To license new and advanced reactor designs, regulators must be convinced that their unique safety cases—relative to existing large scale reactors—have been adequately addressed by the designed reactor protection systems. In water cooled small modular reactors (SMRs), droplet entrainment in steam flow has significant implications on the progression of accident scenarios due to its compact design features, which requires representative test data applicable to SMR designs. Computer code, modeling and simulation (M&S) tools and models require adequate verification, assessment, and qualification. This includes M&S results validation against scaled empirical data within allowable uncertainty bands to gain regulatory approvals during the various stages of reactor system design, demonstration, and commercialization. However, measurement uncertainty within the empirical datasets and test data applicability ranges requires careful consideration of M&S inputs (i.e., boundary conditions, and initial conditions), and verification and validation efforts. This study focuses on uncertainty quantification in designing scaled test facilities for SMR applications with appropriate measurements and a standard data-reduction method to estimate thermal hydraulics characteristics parameters that incorporate physics phenomena of interest. In addition, this study supports the evaluation model development and assessment process using M&S that interfaces with advanced computing tools and digital twin capabilities. This will allow synchronization between experiment and modeling approaches for droplet entrainment testing and analysis, improving diagnostics, prognostics, and decision-making to accelerate regulatory approval.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Unraveling Spatio-Temporal Chemistry Evolution in Laser Ablation Plumes and Its Relation to Initial Plasma Conditions
The chemistry evolution in a laser ablation plume depends strongly on its initial physical conditions. In this article, we investigate the impact of plasma generation conditions on the interrelated phenomena of expansion dynamics, plasma chemistry, and physical conditions. Plasmas are produced from a uranium metal target in air using nanosecond, femtosecond, and femtosecond filament-assisted laser ablation. Time-resolved two-dimensional spectral imaging was performed for evaluating the spatio-temporal evolu-tion of atoms, diatoms, polyatomic molecules, and nanoparticles in situ. Emission spectral features reveal that molecular formation occurs at early times in both femtosecond and filament ablation plumes, although with different temporal decay. In contrast, mo-lecular formation is found to occur at much later times in nanosecond plasma evolution. Spectral modeling is used to infer tem-poral behavior of plasma excitation temperature, and results highlighted that nanosecond plume temperatures decay rapidly while plumes generated by filament ablation show slowest decay. In this work, we find U atoms and UO molecules co-exist in ultrafast laser produced plasmas even at early times after plasma onset owing to favorable temperatures for molecular formation. Regardless of irradiation conditions, plume emission features showed presence of higher oxides (i.e. UxOy), although with different temporal histories. Our study provides insight into the impact of plasma generation conditions on chemistry evolution in plasmas produced from traditional focused femtosecond, nanosecond, and filament-assisted laser ablation.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Sensitivity of Grass Fires Burning in Marginal Conditions to Atmospheric Turbulence
Abstract Atmospheric forcing and interactions between the fire and atmosphere are primary drivers of wildland fire behavior. The atmosphere is known to be a chaotic system that, although deterministic, is very sensitive to small perturbations to initial conditions. We assume that as a result of the tight coupling between fire and atmosphere; wildland fire behavior, in turn, should also be sensitive to perturbations in atmospheric initial conditions. Observations suggest that low intensity prescribed fire, in particular, is susceptible to small perturbations in the wind field, which can significantly alter fire spread. Here, we employ a computational fluid dynamics model of coupled fire‐atmosphere interactions to answer the question: How sensitive is fire behavior to small variations in atmospheric turbulence? We perform ensemble simulations of fires in homogenous grass fuels. The only difference between ensemble members is the state of the turbulent atmosphere provided to the model throughout the simulation. The atmospheric state is a function of the initial conditions applied at the start of the simulation and boundary conditions applied throughout the simulation. We find a wide range of outcomes, with area burned ranging from 2,212 to 11,236 m 2 (>400% change), driven primarily by sensitivity to initial conditions, with nonnegligible contributions from boundary condition variability during the initial 30 s of simulation. Our results highlight the need for ensemble simulations, especially when considering fire behavior in marginal burning conditions.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Battery models, systems, and methods using robust fail-safe iteration free approach for solving differential algebraic equations
Battery models using robust fail-safe iteration free approach for solving Differential Algebraic Equations, and associated systems and methods are disclosed. In one embodiment, a method includes generating a model of the rechargeable battery; determining one or more initial conditions for one or more algebraic variables of the model using a solver; holding differential variables of the model static by a switch function while determining the one or more initial conditions; applying the initial conditions to the model by the switch function; and determining one or more parameters for the rechargeable battery by solving the algebraic and differential equations.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗