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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

Untargeted, tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS-MS) metaproteomes from soil samples in control and warming plots in Blodgett Forest, CA (2014-2021)

The pathways of carbon transport and loss through and from soils—soil organic matter (SOM) depolymerization to dissolved organic carbon and mineralization to carbon dioxide (CO2)—are fundamentally driven by microbial activity, which is strongly regulated by environmental conditions. As part of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Terrestrial Ecosystem Science (TES) Belowground Biogeochemistry Science Focus Area (SFA), we have established a novel whole-soil long-term warming experiment at the University of California (UC) Blodgett Forest Research Station (Sierra Nevada) in 2014, where we study the role of biogeochemical, microbial and geochemical process interactions in SOM decomposition and stabilization. This package contains soil metaproteomics data in the context of site specific metagenomes from soil depth profiles in three paired control and warming plots from a temperate mixed forest in Northern California. Each paired plot had been subjected to experimental warming since June 2014 to simulate a predicted climate change scenario for northern California. These metaproteomes were collected in 2018 after 4.5 years of warming from five depth intervals (0-10 cm, 10-30 cm, 30-45 cm, 45-60 cm, 60-80 cm). For protein identification, the collected spectra were searched following a target-decoy search strategy against a database of metagenome predicted proteins (covering 96 samples from 2014 to 2021) representing the complete sequence diversity at the site. Data was searched with mass spectrometry database search tool (MS-GF+) using Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)'s Data Management System (DMS) Processing pipeline. The metagenomes are published as part of another data package. Raw metaproteomic data and the data products from MS-GF+ are deposited in the Mass Spectrometry Interactive Virtual Environment (MassIVE) database under accession no. MSV000097826. Here we present a dataset that includes spectral counts for the detected proteins across samples (EMSL50964_BrodieAllMAGs_Globals_SC.txt), the sequences of the detected proteins, and sample metadata file that contains site information for the soil metaproteome samples.

Belowground Biogeochemistry Science Focus Area↗

Shallow EGS Regional Resource Potential and Map - Snake River Plain

SMU Geothermal Lab developed a methodology to estimate shallow (1 km to 4 km) Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) resource potential using an approach that utilizes recent geology and geophysical research along with new well data to improve the thermal conductivity model, mitigate impacts from groundwater flow in the thermal model, and examine radioactivity data variations. By incorporating the results of the most recent projects with the SMU shallow methodology, we developed a more accurate, updated resource estimate for the Snake River Plain (SRP). The resulting maps and resource estimates can be used by the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), Bureau of Land Management (BLM), and the public to determine how best to move forward with future project development.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

H-Canyon exhaust tunnel LiDAR data request for information review and release

This request is to release LiDAR data files acquired by SRNL R&D Engineering and H-Area Operations and Engineering while performing scans of the interior of the H-Canyon Exhaust tunnel. LiDAR data includes 3-dimensional (3D) point cloud data sets and panoramic digital images of the interior tunnel wall surfaces. Presently two deployments have been completed, the first in November 2019, Fig. 1, and the second in June of 2020. This request is for the release of the data collected during those two deployments. Detailed information on the deployment and data collected can be found in SRS document C-ESR-H-00072, “November 2019 Initial Deployment of LiDAR”. It is planned to perform ongoing scans at approximately 6-month intervals, the purpose of the deployments is to evaluate the usefulness of the data collected to enable quantitative measurements such as tunnel dimensions and rate of surface erosion and as a precursor to a potential deployment of a LiDAR system on the tunnel inspection crawler.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

2022 Report - SRNL Aging and Lifetimes program tritium aging studies on structural alloys

This report documents work performed in fiscal year 2022 at SRNL in support of the Aging and Lifetimes program. This work is an enduring collaboration between SRNL and SNL to study tritium embrittlement of structural metals used in Gas Transfer System reservoirs. The measured data inform component lifetime assessments and predictions. Test coupons are thermally pre-charged with tritium and allowed to age at cryogenic temperatures to freeze out tritium diffusion and minimize off-gassing while allowing for decay helium levels to build. Coupons are removed and tested at planned intervals to measure how mechanical properties degrade as helium levels increase. This report summarizes test results from coupons which are in various stages of aging as they were tritium pre-charged in previous years, as well as documenting one new charging run.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Digital Twin Framework Utilizing Machine Learning for Robust Predictive Maintenance: Enhancing Tire Health Monitoring

We introduce a novel digital twin (DT) framework for the predictive maintenance of long-term physical systems. Using monitoring tire health as an application, we show how the DT framework can be used to enhance automotive safety and efficiency, and how the technical challenges can be overcome using a three-step approach. First, to manage the data complexity over a long operation span, we employ data reduction techniques to concisely represent physical tires using historical performance and usage data. Relying on these data, for fast real-time prediction, we train a transformer-based model offline on our concise dataset to predict future tire health over time, represented as remaining casing potential (RCP). Based on our architecture, our model quantifies both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, providing reliable confidence intervals around predicted RCP. Second, to incorporate real-time data, we update the predictive model in the DT framework, ensuring its accuracy throughout its lifespan with the aid of hybrid modeling and the use of the discrepancy function. Third, to assist decision-making in predictive maintenance, we implement a tire state decision algorithm, which strategically determines the optimal timing for tire replacement based on RCP forecasted by our transformer model. This approach ensures that our DT accurately predicts system health, continually refines its digital representation, and supports predictive maintenance decisions. Furthermore, our framework effectively embodies a physical system, leveraging big data and machine learning (ML) for predictive maintenance, model updates, and decision-making.

advanced computing infrastructure↗

E-Area Corrosion Coupon Recovery and Evaluation

The recovery and evaluation of selected E-Area corrosion coupons were completed in FY2022. This is the second time coupons have been recovered from the E-Area Corrosion Monitoring Test Site, with the first recovery effort occurring in FY2017. Coupons recovered during the FY2022 extraction have now been exposed to the subsurface for approximately 17 years. This effort is part of an ongoing study where a subset of coupons is recovered at each determined time interval over a 100-year period. Results from this effort, as well as updates to the schedule for future recovery and evaluation efforts, are included in this report revision. This report is issued as a revision to the 2018 report and maintains similar formatting.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Energy dependence of \(\phi \) meson production at forward rapidity in pp collisions at the LHC

The production of Φ mesons has been studied in pp collisions at LHC energies with the ALICE detector via the dimuon decay channel in the rapidity region 2.5 < y < 4. Measurements of the differential cross section d 2 σ / dydpT are presented as a function of the transverse momentum (p T ) at the center-of-mass energies √s = 5.02, 8 and 13 TeV and compared with the ALICE results at midrapidity. The differential cross sections at √s = 5.02 and 13 TeV are also studied in several rapidity intervals as a function of p T , and as a function of rapidity in three p T intervals. A hardening of the p T -differential cross section with the collision energy is observed, while, for a given energy, p T spectra soften with increasing rapidity and, conversely, rapidity distributions get slightly narrower at increasing p T . The new results, complementing the published measurements at √s = 2.76 and 7 TeV, allow one to establish the energy dependence of Φ meson production and to compare the measured cross sections with phenomenological models. None of the considered models manages to describe the evolution of the cross section with p T and rapidity at all the energies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Williston Basin Resource Study for Commercial-Scale Subsurface Hydrogen Storage

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), the EERC’s State Energy Research Center (SERC), MPLX Operations LLC, and TC Energy Development Holdings Inc. (a subsidiary of TC Energy Corporation), studied the potential for subsurface hydrogen storage and recovery in the Williston Basin of western North Dakota. The project’s goal was to evaluate the feasibility of large-scale, secure geologic H 2 storage to support future hydrogen generation, storage, and use. This work included laboratory testing, H 2 –rock–fluid exposure experiments, literature reviews on H 2 embrittlement, and reservoir modeling and simulations. The study included an assessment of storage potential across three types of storage reservoirs using both reservoir simulation and DOE’s web-based tool SHASTA-HELP (Subsurface Hydrogen Assessment, Storage, and Technology Acceleration – Hydrogen Estimator for Logistical Planning), as well as investigation of potential H 2 production and markets for commercial-scale deployment. Building on prior EERC gas storage research, three storage options were selected for detailed evaluation: the Broom Creek Formation (a clastic saline reservoir), the Dickinson Lodgepole Mounds (DLM) complex (carbonate mud mound structures) of the Lodgepole Formation (an active oil and gas producing reservoir), and the Dunham Salt Interval of the Piper Formation (to be used for engineered salt cavern development). These targets were prioritized based on prior EERC research using datasets related to seal capacity, reservoir quality, mechanical integrity, and injectivity. Exposure tests on Broom Creek and DLM samples showed mineral dissolution and precipitation that increased brine salinity and altered reservoir rock surfaces. Although these results provide useful insight, they are limited by small sample sizes and short-term (30-day) exposure, requiring further study to assess long-term storage integrity. Salt formations were not tested because of their known nonreactivity and established mechanical stability. Results of reservoir simulations performed for a single site demonstrated that the Broom Creek Formation may be capable of receiving up to 42,000 tonnes of injected H 2 over 7 months via one well. H 2 recovery took place over 5 months, resulting in approximately 26,000 tonnes (~62% without cushion gas [CG]). This work suggests water production may be important and subsequent cycles of injection and production may perform more efficiently; however, significant site-specific work in the future is needed to assess actual reservoir performance of injection and withdrawal of H 2 storage. For oil reservoir potential, a multiple-well model was used to simulate injection of approximately 32,000 tonnes of H 2 into a single wellbore while simultaneously producing in place reservoir fluids from four offset wells to maintain reservoir pressure. The simulation results suggested a high recovery (~98%); in addition, cost advantages through existing infrastructure could be realized. Challenges in this reservoir include vi managing gas purity and leakage risks. In both scenarios, production of H 2 takes place in a single-well scenario with 10 cycles (7 months of injection and 5 months of production) over 10 years. Finally, the use of engineered caverns in the Dunhan Salt was evaluated, and the results suggest that while they have a smaller capacity (<1000 tonnes per cavern), they exhibit nearly complete gas recovery (>99%), fast response times, and low purity risk. While caverns in North Dakota may be smaller in capacity, fields can be developed in galleries to accommodate the volumetric needs and rapid turnaround times necessary to meet market demands. Geographic limitations and thin salt intervals in North Dakota may represent less total storage potential than salt domes elsewhere, but significant opportunities exist to expand this market for gas storage in North Dakota. A basinwide assessment was performed to estimate a first-of-its-kind value for H 2 storage on a large scale. DOE’s SHASTA-HELP, combined with EERC simulation work, was used to perform the assessment. Estimated H 2 storage potential varied widely for each formation type. The Broom Creek saline formation was estimated to have a storage potential of approximately 1.7–90.5 million tonnes (MMt). The DLM oil reservoirs were estimated to have 0.07–0.19 MMt of capacity. Notably, each of these estimates relies on significant assumptions regarding reservoir thickness, porosity, permeability, and CG needed for operation. Much research is needed to understand the true site-specific storage resource potential of each formation. Using the Dunham Salt Interval for cavern development may result in as much as 4.79 MMt (up to 2.87 MMt working gas) of H 2 storage potential. An important note for consideration is that the values presented here need significantly more geological characterization and engineering assessments prior to gaining confidence in performance. This will be a focal point for future research and development needs. The basinwide evaluation also indicated that North Dakota has significant H 2 generation potential, with estimates up to a possible 13 MMt annually, suggesting a substantial opportunity for H 2 market development and thus the need for commercial-scale H 2 storage to facilitate growth and resilience. Key Recommendations 1. Conduct detailed site characterization (3D seismic, well logs, core sampling) to reduce geologic uncertainty. 2. Perform techno-economic analyses incorporating market, regulatory, and incentive frameworks. 3. Investigate long-term interactions among H 2 , CGs, well materials, and formations to assess risks. 4. Develop pilot- and field-scale demonstrations to validate models and establish best practices.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

A Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression Method for Probabilistic Wind Farm Power Curve Estimation

Accurate estimation of the power curve for wind turbines or wind farms is crucial to ensure their efficient operation and management. However, conventional methods for power curve estimation rely either on expensive and infrequent measurements or on low-quality numerical simulations. Moreover, the majority of previous studies on power curve estimation for wind turbines or wind farms focused on deterministic estimation, which provides a point estimate of the relationship between wind speed and power generation. Nevertheless, the deterministic approach fails to consider the inherent uncertainty associated with wind energy production resulting from varying turbine characteristics. This can lead to inaccurate power generation estimation and suboptimal decisions regarding energy management. In this paper, a kernel density estimation (KDE) based Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression (MFGPR) model is proposed to fuse theoretical power curve data and the ground true measurements to create a mapping of wind speed and wind power. By conducting a case study on an actual wind farm in China, the efficacy of the proposed MFGPR model was demonstrated in characterizing the variability of wind power. The probabilistic MFGPR model was also able to generate confidence intervals that encompassed the measured power, thereby improving the accuracy and confidence in wind power estimation or wind resource assessment. Overall, the proposed MFGPR model offers a reliable approach to integrate high-fidelity ground measurements and theoretical power curve data, resulting in precise wind resource assessment and power estimation.

Gaussian process regression↗

Quantifying soil organic matter stock distribution and origin following over a century of maize-based cropping in the former tallgrass prairie region of central USA

Tallgrass prairie conversion to maize-based agriculture in central North America has resulted in substantial loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) in less than two centuries. However, evaluations of how management practices may mitigate SOC losses are generally limited in soil depth and/or duration, missing long-term SOC stock outcomes that manifest over timescales of decades or longer. To address this, we sampled soils in year 145 of the Morrow Plots experiment to (i) evaluate effects of crop rotation and fertility management on SOC stocks and (ii) distinguish prairie- versus maize-derived SOC after continuous maize cropping since 1876 using stable carbon isotope ( 13 C) natural abundance. Soil organic carbon stock by equivalent soil mass (ESM) was + 30.7 Mg C ha −1 (+31.7 %) higher under maize-oat-alfalfa than continuous maize, but similar between maize-soybean and continuous maize. NPK fertilization and manuring did not influence SOC stocks by ESM. Response of SOC stocks at 15 cm depth intervals to NPK fertilization varied by depth and crop rotation, with lower SOC stocks at 30–45 cm under continuous maize and maize-soybean. Maize-derived C ranged 19.5–59.6 % of SOC stock across depths, indicating the majority of SOC was still derived from tallgrass prairie even after 145 years of continuous maize cropping. Our results confirm the potential of diversified crop rotation for minimizing SOC losses relative to tallgrass prairie at the supracentennial scale, and highlight the importance of relic prairie soil organic matter for future crop production in central North America.

crop rotation↗

3-D Geologic Controls of Hydrothermal Fluid Flow at Brady geothermal field, Nevada, USA

In many hydrothermal systems, fracture permeability along faults provides pathways for groundwater to transport heat from depth. Faulting generates a range of deformation styles that cross-cut heterogeneous geology, resulting in complex patterns of permeability, porosity, and hydraulic conductivity. Vertical connectivity (a throughgoing network of permeable areas that allows advection of heat from depth to the shallow subsurface) is rare and is confined to relatively small volumes that have highly variable spatial distribution. This local compartmentalization of connectivity represents a significant challenge to understanding hydrothermal circulation and for exploring, developing, and managing hydrothermal resources. Here, we present an evaluation of the geologic characteristics that control this compartmentalization in hydrothermal systems through 3-D analysis of the Brady geothermal field in western Nevada. A published 3-D geologic map of the Brady area is used as a basis to develop structural and geological variables that are hypothesized to control or effect permeability or connectivity. The 3-D distribution of these variables is compared to the distribution of productive and non-productive fluid flow intervals along production wells and non-productive wells via principal component analysis (PCA). This comparison elucidates which geologic and structural variables are most closely associated with productive fluid flow intervals. Results indicate that production intervals at Brady are located: (1) within or near to known and stress-loaded macro-scale faults, and (2) in areas of high fault and fracture density.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

3-D Geologic Controls of Hydrothermal Fluid Flow at Brady Geothermal Field, Nevada using PCA

In many hydrothermal systems, fracture permeability along faults provides pathways for groundwater to transport heat from depth. Faulting generates a range of deformation styles that cross-cut heterogeneous geology, resulting in complex patterns of permeability, porosity, and hydraulic conductivity. Vertical connectivity (a through going network of permeable areas that allows advection of heat from depth to the shallow subsurface) is rare and is confined to relatively small volumes that have highly variable spatial distribution. This local compartmentalization of connectivity represents a significant challenge to understanding hydrothermal circulation and for exploring, developing, and managing hydrothermal resources. Here, we present an evaluation of the geologic characteristics that control this compartmentalization in hydrothermal systems through 3-D analysis of the Brady geothermal field in western Nevada. A published 3-D geologic map of the Brady area is used as a basis to develop structural and geological variables that are hypothesized to control or effect permeability or connectivity. The 3-D distribution of these variables is compared to the distribution of productive and non-productive fluid flow intervals along production wells and non-productive wells via principal component analysis (PCA). This comparison elucidates which geologic and structural variables are most closely associated with productive fluid flow intervals. Results indicate that production intervals at Brady are located: (1) within or near to known and stress-loaded macro-scale faults, and (2) in areas of high fault and fracture density. This submission includes the published journal article detailing this work, the published 3-D geologic map of the Brady Geothermal Area used as a basis to develop structural and geological variables that are hypothesized to control or effect permeability or connectivity, 3-D well data, along which geologic data were sampled for PCA analyses, and associated metadata file. This work was done using existing R programs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Next-Level Energy Management in Manufacturing: Facility-Level Energy Digital Twin Framework Based on Machine Learning and Automated Data Collection

This research introduces an energy prediction framework at the facility level supported by automated data collection and machine learning models. It investigates whether reducing the prediction time scale allows for applying more complex machine learning techniques and if those techniques improve the prediction accuracy. The primary advantages of this framework lie in its automation of the energy prediction process and its provision of real-time energy data suitable for use in energy dashboards or digital twins. A sitewide dataset was created by combining 15 min energy and daily production data of five shops—assembly, battery, body (electric), body (gas), and paint—from a globally recognized electric vehicle manufacturer. Various machine learning models were evaluated on daily, weekly, and monthly datasets, including, in increasingly complex order: naïve, simple linear regression, net regularized generalized linear regression, principal component regression, k-nearest neighbor, random forest, and Bayesian regularized neural network. Compared to the current state-of-the-art energy consumption prediction for the industrial facility level, this research investigates more complex models and smaller time intervals for higher accuracy. The findings revealed that the more complex monthly models require a minimum of a year and a half of data to operate, while weekly models demand a year of data to achieve improved accuracy. Daily models can operate with only six months of data but exhibit poor performance due to reduced prediction accuracy of production. Key challenges identified include access to reliable, high-quality energy and production data and the initial demand for human labor.

digital twin↗

Machine Learning-Driven Quantification of CO2 Plume Dynamics at Illinois Basin Decatur Project Sites Using Microseismic Data

This study utilizes machine learning to quantify CO2 plume extents by analyzing microseismic data from the Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP). Leveraging a unique dataset of well logs, microseismic records, and CO2 injection metrics, this work aims to predict the temporal evolution of subsurface CO2 saturation plumes. The findings illustrate that machine learning can predict plume dynamics, revealing vertical clustering of microseismic events over distinct time periods within certain proximities to the injection well, consistent with an invasion percolation model. The buoyant CO2 plume partially trapped within sandstone intervals periodically breaches localized barriers or baffles, which act as leaky seals and impede vertical migration until buoyancy overcomes gravity and capillary forces, leading to breakthroughs along vertical zones of weakness. Between different unsupervised clustering techniques, K-Means and DBSCAN were applied and analyzed in detail, where K-means outperformed DBSCAN in this specific study by indicating the combination of the highest Silhouette Score and the lowest Davies–Bouldin Index. The predictive capability of machine learning models in quantifying CO2 saturation plume extension is significant for real-time monitoring and management of CO2 sequestration sites. The models exhibit high accuracy, validated against physical models and injection data from the IBDP, reinforcing the viability of CO2 geological sequestration as a climate change mitigation strategy and enhancing advanced tools for safe management of these operations.

Iyegbekedo, Ikponmwosa↗

Artificial Diversity and Defense Security (ADDSec)

Artificial Diversity and Defense Security (ADDSec) machine learning algorithms are used to classify and cluster threats so that an appropriate response can be initiated as a mitigation strategy. The package includes an ensemble of machine learning algorithms such as Support Vector Machines, naïve bayes, logistic regression, and random forest that evolve with the data to recognize anomalous behavior at the host and network levels. Inputs into the machine learning algorithms include end host system calls, system utilization, packet captures, and syslog messages. The machine learning algorithms can be retrained based on user defined intervals or on the number of packets received. ADDSEC's threat responses include Internet Protocol (IP) Address randomization, application port number randomization, and application library randomization. The IP randomization implementation is built on top of a Software Defined Networking (SDN) framework. The SDN controller installs flows on each of the SDN switches with randomized source and destination IP addresses. The application port numbers are randomized using iptables. The application library randomization is created with a LLVM compiler. All randomization schemes are transparent to the endpoints on the network. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-3379 O

Cox, RebeccaE.↗

Comparison of removal and spatial mark‐resight models for estimating wild pig density

Density estimation is critical to effectively manage invasive species and elucidate areas of highest concern. For wild pigs (Sus scrofa), the ability to estimate density is complicated because of their variable home range sizes and social structure. Common methods for estimating density (e.g., mark-recapture) may be unsuitable in management applications because additional data needs to be collected before and after management. Removal models offer a suitable alternative to estimate density changes following management and can be applied broadly across areas where management of wild pigs is ongoing. We collected wild pig removal and camera trap data from 25 private properties ranging in size from approximately 0.5 km 2 to 95 km 2 across 3 ecoregions in South Carolina, USA, from 2020–2023. We compared factors affecting consistency and precision of property-level density estimates between removal and spatial mark-resight (SMR) models. In general, excluding 1 large outlier, density estimates from removal models were between 0.60 and 15.85 wild pigs/km 2 (median = 5.34) with a median coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.76 and 95% confidence intervals for the CV between 0.70 and 0.94. Similarly, excluding 1 large outlier, density estimates from SMR were between 0.22 and 30.97 wild pigs/km 2 (median = 5.48) with a median CV of 0.39 and 95% confidence intervals for the CV between 0.38 and 1.20. We found the precision of removal models was affected primarily by the number of wild pigs dispatched in the removal period (3 months) and the ecoregion in which they were removed. None of the covariates, including the number of recaptures (a corresponding measure of sample size), influenced precision of the SMR models, although recaptures did influence the density estimates. At the individual property level, density estimates from our 2 estimators were dissimilar from each other in approximately 80% of instances, although none of the covariates we examined influenced dissimilarity. Our results provide unique insight into how sample size affects density estimates using 2 common methods and into novel SMR models that incorporate both marked and unmarked detections. In addition, the density estimates in this study can be used as a reference for wild pig densities in common land cover types throughout the southeastern United States.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Development of a vadose zone advanced monitoring system: Tools to assess groundwater vulnerability

Performing repeat pore-fluid sampling over long time-scales can provide valuable information on unsaturated zone contaminants and their potential flux to ground water. This information can be used to manage groundwater remedies and identify contaminants that need to be sequestered in the vadose zone to minimize flux to ground water. Pore-water samples are commonly used to obtain contaminant concentrations within the vadose zone, but existing methods are limited as they only provide a single sample at one location and time. The vadose zone advanced monitoring system (VZAMS) has been designed to integrate multiple technologies into a single down-borehole system that allows for sampling of pore fluids (liquid and gas) to provide information about contamination and hydraulic conditions at multiple depths (~0.3-m intervals) within a cased borehole. Testing has been completed at the laboratory scale to verify the sampling elements of VZAMS, including geochemical testing for representative contaminants known to exist at the Hanford Site, located in southeastern Washington State. Physical tests focused on the ability of the sampler to draw fluid under unsaturated conditions. Initial geochemical testing showed that the stainless steel material used with the porous cuff may affect the sampled concentrations of redox-sensitive contaminants under very dry conditions. Additional laboratory testing demonstrated that the VZAMS components are able to collect representative samples for substances of interest under expected field conditions. In this paper, the design and functionality of a novel instrument are demonstrated in support of subsequent testing in the field.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Operational Probabilistic Tools for Solar Uncertainty (OPTSUN) (Final Project Report for DOE Solar Forecasting II Project)

Increasing levels of solar PV can challenge system operations and may require novel methods to operate the power system reliably and efficiently. Power system operating plans generally use deterministic forecasts, in which the variable energy resources are represented by the expected value for each interval of the decision horizon. Probabilistic forecasts are relatively new but have the potential to address the shortfalls of deterministic forecasts. However, understanding how best to use such forecasts is still a key gap in industry and was the focus of this project. The project had three workstreams. In a forecasting workstream, improvements were made to baseline probabilistic forecasts using a number of new approaches such as machine learning methods and improved input data. In a design workstream, advanced simulation tools used these forecasts to investigate newly proposed reserve determination methods. Lastly, in a demonstration workstream a scheduling management platform (SMP) was developed to leverage probabilistic forecasts in a modular and customizable manner. In order to study the benefits that could be accrued, the project team collaborated with three utility partners (Duke Energy, Southern Company and Hawaiian Electric) to deliver improved probabilistic forecasts for each region and to model each region in case studies using advanced production cost modeling tools. Different methods to determine operating reserve requirements from probabilistic forecasts were developed, simulated, and tested across each region. The benefits of using these newly proposed methods varied by utility, but, in general, using probabilistic forecasts as well as historical data to set the reserve requirements seems to improve reliability related results, with less risk of reserve or supply shortfalls. The cost implications were not always straightforward; in some cases the new methods could show a reduction in expected operating costs, but often the increase in reserves associated with better risk mitigation using probabilistic forecasts could result in an increase in operating costs in the simulations. The SMP tool was developed to process probabilistic forecasts from their initial receipt through to scheduling decisions. This open-source tool consists of several modules for scenario development, reserve requirements calculation, and visualization. The SMP tool was demonstrated to a wide range of operators and stakeholders at all three utilities and further improved based on their feedback. The tool will be available on www.epri.com/optsun. The proposed probabilistic information-based reserve determination approaches have the potential to be implemented by different regions to ensure an economic and reliable power system operation on power systems integrating increasing levels of variable renewable resources. The innovative yet practical methods developed in this project demonstrated tangible benefits from using probabilistic forecasts beyond just study-based assessments to include three unique balancing areas. The demonstrated benefits across the multiple utility environments, are expected to provide system operators in all regions the confidence required and a platform to adopt the new forecasting and operating methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗