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Results for “lifetime estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Wall heating by subcritical energetic electrons generated by the runaway electron avalanche source *

Abstract Subcritical energetic electrons (SEEs) produced by the runaway electron (RE) avalanche source at energies below the runaway threshold are found to be the primary contributor to surface heating of plasma-facing components (PFCs) during final loss events. This finding is supported by theoretical analysis, computational modeling with the Kinetic Orbit Runaway electrons Code (KORC), and qualitative agreement with DIII-D experimental observations. The avalanche source generates significantly more secondary electrons below the runaway threshold, which thermalize rapidly when well-confined. However, during a final loss event, the RE beam impacts the first wall, and SEEs are deconfined before they can thermalize. Additionally, because the energy deposition length decreases faster than energy, the deposited energy density, and thus the maximum PFC surface temperature change, is larger for SEEs than REs. KORC simulations employ an analytic first wall to model particle deconfinement onto a non-axisymmetric wall composed of individual tiles. PFC surface heating is calculated using a 1D model extended to include an energy-dependent deposition length scale. Simulations of DIII-D qualitatively agree with infrared (IR) imaging only when SEEs from the avalanche source are included. These results demonstrate that SEEs are the dominant contributor to PFC surface heating and indicate that the avalanche source plays a critical role in the PFC damage caused during final loss events. The prominence of SEEs also has important implications for interpreting IR imaging, one of the primary diagnostics for RE-wall interaction diagnosis, despite REs dominating the energy and current density. This result improves predictions of wall damage due to post-disruption REs to estimate material lifetime and design RE mitigation systems for ITER and future reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photovoltaics module reliability for the terawatt age

Photovoltaics (PV), or solar electricity generation, has become the cheapest form of energy in many locations worldwide and, combined with energy storage, has the potential to satisfy most of our electricity needs. PV has grown at an annual compounded growth rate of approximately 30% in the last three decades. Solar energy systems will continue their impressive growth in distributed energy, microgrids, and utility scale, as efforts are made for dependable electricity in an age with increasing extreme weather. However, within this remarkable success lies a new challenge. The growth curve, combined with rapid product innovation and scale up, means that the majority of PV systems are new, without the three years of performance data that have been required in the past to estimate product lifetime. PV reliability has to address this challenge. In this review we present a brief summary of PV reliability starting with brief historical synopsis, detailing some of the technological challenges and present a framework required for long lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Reactive Power on Photovoltaic Inverter Reliability and Lifetime

This paper performs research on predicting Photovoltaic (PV) inverters reliability and lifetime based on thermal cycling. Thermal cycling is considered the most important stressors in an inverter system. In order to achieve this, a detailed electro-thermal model of the PV inverter will be developed along with their controllers capable of providing voltage support through reactive power. An in-house inverter was built, and a PV inverter model was developed to match the physical inverter. The PV inverter electrothermal model was validated for different ambient temperatures to match the in-house inverter hardware. The in-house inverter was placed inside a thermal chamber to emulate different ambient temperatures and their losses and temperature rises within the system were measured. After the validation of the model, a reduced order model of the inverter will be implemented to translate the mission profile of ambient temperature and solar irradiance into load profile of junction temperatures of the switches. The junction temperature data will be used to identify the reliability indices and hence predict the useful lifetime of the inverter system. Along with the model to predict useful lifetime of the system, the impact of reactive power on the overall reliability of the system will be studied. The key observation in this paper shows that lifetime of the inverter decreases as the operating power factor moves away from unity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermomechanical Stress and Creep-Fatigue Analysis of a High-Temperature Prototype Receiver for Heating Particles

This work presents a three-dimensional (3D) thermomechanical model of a prototype-scale enclosed light trapping solar receiver for heating particles. Results of the thermoelastic model are used to estimate receiver lifetime under maximum flux conditions. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is first developed to predict the temperature fields in a multi-panel assembly under steady operating conditions. Solar flux distributions on the receiver are obtained from the software package SolTrace and applied to the 3D thermal model. The subsequent particle heating is captured through a simplified 1D energy balance. Panel reradiation is considered through a surface-to-surface radiation model and natural convection loss to the surrounding air is captured in a representative fluid domain surrounding the receiver. The resulting temperature fields from the CFD analysis are used as inputs for a thermoelastic mechanical model with representative boundary conditions. With the resultant temperature and stress fields, a creep-fatigue damage and lifetime analysis is performed using the linear damage accumulation (LDA) theory. The Manson-Coffin formula and Larson Miller correlation are used to calculate the fatigue and creep, respectively. A maximum damage (corresponding to a 30-year service life) is defined for design assessment. The model was first developed and verified in detail by comparing with published results in the literature (temperature and stress profiles and distributions, and creep/fatigue damage fractions) for tubular solar receivers with supercritical carbon dioxide as the working fluid. It was then implemented to model a planar-cavity receiver with various design parameters. Specifically, three different design geometries are considered, and the results show that a maximum temperature of approximately 1200 K could be reached for each design with the given incident solar flux, with the main difference being the distribution of these temperatures. Preliminary resulting stresses for the small-scale prototype without design optimization vary from 20 MPa to 250 MPa for each design, with the maximum stresses occurring on the front face and concave geometry on the side of the panel. In future work, the developed methodology shown here will be applied to analyze a full-scale (50-150 MWth) receiver.

concentrated solar power↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design and Manufacturing of High Performance, Reduced Charge Heat Exchangers

A framework of stress analysis and fatigue analysis was developed. Utilizing the framework, stress analysis and fatigue analysis of high-performance heat exchangers with non-round shaped tubes were studied. The tubes, headers and welding layers were studied separately before analyzing the assembled heat exchangers. Results reveal different stress strength on the different shapes of tubes and headers. Unevenly welding distribution is also discussed in the report. Moreover, the fatigue analysis results of the heat exchanger are helping to estimate the lifetime of the heat exchanger from fatigue point of view.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Durability of Piston Seals in Hydraulic Power Take-off Systems in Wave Energy Converters

Hydraulic cylinder seals are a critical component of hydraulic power take-off (PTO) systems in wave energy converters (WECs). Primary hydraulic piston seal wear is a major concern for the longevity of hydraulic PTOs, especially in the context of the effort and expense associated with seal replacement. Piston seals, made from polymeric elastomers, are used to contain and isolate high pressure fluids within PTO systems. A specific challenge for WEC designers is knowing, with confidence, the relative expected lifetimes of commercially available seals and seal materials for the unique long travel and continuous use case of WEC hydraulic systems. This information is critical to accurately determine operating expense (OPEX) and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). If failures of seals occur earlier than their designed lifetime, the estimated operations, and maintenance (O&M) and LCOE costs may double based on estimation. Unfortunately, information from seal manufacturers on longevity in these applications is not generally available and quantitative performance comparison between different manufacturers is not available, creating significant uncertainty on use of hydraulic PTO system in wave power generation. In this project, PNNL, with advice from different WEC device and seal manufacturers, has created a framework to address the industry need for available, dependable and comparative data for seals and seals materials for WEC hydraulic applications including piston seals, glide rings, and shaft seals. Commonly used and candidate seal materials were identified and available information on the materials such as mechanical and fatigue performance, chemical (fluid) compatibility, and cost has been compiled. Hardware and strategy for bench scale measurement of key materials and seal performance and pathway for publicly available library of hydraulic seal materials, properties, suppliers, and options have also been identified for future implementation. The results of this project were presented at WPTO Seedling Symposium 2023 and OCEANS 2023. The results of the literature review including identified polymer seals and ideal operating conditions were summaried and compiled to a database WEC-SealsDB hosted locally at PNNL.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Brine Processing to Enable U.S. Lithium Independence (CRADA Report)

Current production of LiOH, which is needed to make Li-ion battery cathode active materials, utilizes a multistep process including solar evaporation, precipitation with Na 2 CO 3 and then conversion to LiOH using Ca(OH) 2 . This process requires a large amount of land area for solar evaporation, the right weather conditions, and chemicals for the conversion process that result in NaCl and CaCO 3 waste products. The production of Ca(OH) 2 is very energy intensive and evolves significant quantities of CO 2 . An alternative process flow utilizing direct lithium extraction techniques, followed by a chemical free conversion process can have benefits in reducing the needed land requirements and chemicals for traditional brine processing. There are many potential direct lithium extraction technologies that are currently being developed. The direct lithium extraction process from typical brine sources will produce a LiCl solution with some impurities including typically high concentrations of Na. This brine then needs to be converted to LiOH for use in battery cathode production. Ideally this conversion could occur without the use of additional chemicals. Electrochemistry can do this conversion either via electrolysis or bipolar membrane electrodialysis (BPED) to produce LiOH and HCl in solution. BPED utilized bipolar membranes to split water, which has a reduced potential as compared to splitting water at electrodes into hydrogen and oxygen gas. This reduced potential required results in a significant energy savings for BPED over electrolysis methods. This CRADA project aimed to develop such an integrated process using direct lithium extraction followed by BPED to produce a LiOH solution. That solution can then be crystallized into battery grade LiOH. In particular, Albemarle utilized a direct lithium extraction process to produce a concentrated LiCl solution that could be used for the BPED process. The BPED process was first tested using various LiCl solutions with impurity ions added at bench scale to understand the effects of impurities and determine processing parameters. Then testing was performed using the direct lithium extracted brine at the bench scale before scaling the process up. After the process was scaled up a long duration test was carried out to estimate the lifetime of the membranes, which is key to the economics of the BPED process.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Implementation and Performance Evaluation of a Community-Scale Adobe Evaporative Cooling Chamber for Vegetable Preservation

The construction of evaporative coolers in remote areas can increase the longevity of vegetables, improving food security and the local economy of small farmers in remote, impoverished communities without access to electricity. This work presents a 1:1 scale prototype of an 8 m 3 (2.1 × 2.1 × 2.3 m) stabilized adobe evaporative cooler, with a design based on the appropriate technology framework, and it was built as a chamber using double adobe walls, filled with wet sand, to induce evaporative cooling. Furthermore, the paper presents the prototype’s performance evaluation. The tests were carried out in the dry and wet states, with different volumes of water. The results show good performance compared with other prototypes, although the optimum watering volume could not be determined because of the high climate variance (outside temperature and humidity) that prevented the repetition of the experiments in identical operating conditions. Stabilized adobe proved to be a good choice for use in the cooler, even when subject to moisture accumulation, indicating an estimated long lifetime for the cooler. The data obtained about the efficiency of evaporative cooling show that the cooler, as expected, has its best performance on the hottest and driest days, reducing the internal temperature (up to 13.24 °C) and managing to keep the internal humidity. The cost, efficiency, durability, and replicability make the proposed evaporative cooler a feasible solution for food preservation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Laboratory-driven Multiscale Investigation of X-Ray Induced Mass Loss and Photochemical Evolution in Cosmic Carbon and Silicate Dust

We present the results of an integrated laboratory and modeling investigation into the impact of stellar X-rays on cosmic dust. Carbonaceous grains were prepared in a cooled (< 200 K) supersonic expansion from aromatic molecular precursors, and were later irradiated with 970 eV X-rays. Silicate (enstatite) grains were prepared via laser ablation, thermally annealed, and later irradiated with 500 eV X-rays. Infrared spectra of the 3.4 μm band of the carbon sample prepared with benzene revealed 84% ± 5% band area loss for an X-ray dose of 5.2 x 10 23 eV.cm -2 . Infrared spectra of the 8 -12 μm Si-O band of the silicate sample revealed band area loss up to 63% ± 5% for doses of 2.3 x 10 23 eV.cm -2 . A hybrid Monte Carlo particle trajectory approach was used to model the impact of X-rays and ensuing photoelectrons, Auger and collisionally ionized electrons through the bulk. As a result of x-ray ionization and ensuing Coulomb explosions on surface molecules, the calculated mass loss is 60% for the carbonaceous sample and 46% for the silicate sample, within a factor of 2 of the IR band loss, supporting an X-ray induced mass-loss mechanism. We apply the laboratory X-ray destruction rates to estimate the lifetimes of dust grains in protoplanetary disks surrounding 1 M ⊙ and 0.1 M ⊙ G and M stars. In both cases, X-ray destruction timescales are short (a few million years) at the disk surface, but are found to be much longer than typical disk lifetimes (≳10 Myr) over the disk bulk.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Privacy First Path Analysis using Clickstream Data

In the modern digital economy, data-driven decision making is crucial for effectively meeting the ever-evolving demands of consumer engagement and satisfaction. Clickstream data has become invaluable for understanding customer behavior, yet concerns over privacy and security persist, especially with some internet service providers profiting from its sale. This article introduces an innovative methodology that blends experiential learning with advanced cryptographic techniques, including differential privacy and graph analytics. The core objective of this methodology is to estimate Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) by analyzing clickstream data, achieving an average prediction accuracy of 92.4% in user engagement levels while ensuring user anonymity through Recency, Frequency, and Monetary (RFM) analysis. Our study introduces the concept of a “data depositor” and a privacy manager, employing the composition theorem to merge non-adaptive queries effectively. Privacy budgets (? = 1.0, d = 10-5), sensitivity-specific techniques, and data partitioning were applied. Randomization and noise addition protect data integrity, with special handling for categorical values. This approach, differing from prior studies, offers a 12.6% improvement in privacy-preserving targeting accuracy while maintaining strict confidentiality, presenting a novel path forward in data-driven decision-making.

Frequency and Monetary (RFM) analysis↗
DOE OSTI2020

Material erosion measurements and expected operational lifetime of a deployable photon sieve payload

Spacecraft operating in low-Earth orbit are subjected to a number of hazardous environmental constituents that can lead to decreased system performance and reduced operational lifetimes. Due to their thermal, optical, and mechanical properties, polymers are used extensively in space systems; however they are particularly susceptible to material erosion and degradation as a result of exposure to the LEO environment. The focus of this research is to examine the material erosion and mass loss experienced by a custom Kaptonlike polyimide due to exposure in a simulated low-earth orbit environment. The deployable membrane telescope design discussed in this research is named Peregrine and is the scientific payload for FalconSat-7, a 3U cubesat designed and developed at the United States Air Force Academy (USAFA) for the purpose of demonstrating the capability of deployable membrane telescope technology on a nanosatellite platform. In addition to the polymer samples, chrome, silver and gold specimens will be examined to measure the oxidation rate and act as a control specimen, respectively. A magnetically filtered atomic oxygen plasma source has previously been developed and characterized for the purpose of simulating the low-Earth orbit environment. The plasma source can be operated at a variety of discharge currents and gas flow rates, of which the plasma parameters downstream of the source are dependent. The characteristics of the generated plasma were examined as a function of these operating parameters to optimize the production of O + ions with energy relevant to LEO applications. The erosion yield of the Kapton-like polyimide was experimentally determined to be 2.84 x 10 -24 cm 3 per atom which is in close agreement when compared to the on-orbit measurement for reaction efficiency of Kapton HN. We report the experimentally determined reaction rate for the Kapton-like polyimide was used to estimate the operational lifetime of the photon sieve during the solar conditions expected beginning in May 2019. The effective lifetime is estimated between 126 and 153 days.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A new method for measuring refractory corrosion of ceramics in glass

Abstract Nuclear waste glass vitrification furnaces are lined with refractory ceramic blocks to contain the molten glass. The refractory liner is susceptible to corrosion and has a finite service lifetime. For this reason, predicting the refractory corrosion in contact with molten glass is integral to estimating melter service lifetime. Standardized laboratory tests varying time and temperature are commonly performed to estimate refractory material loss as a function of glass composition. These data are time and resource‐intensive to collect and are susceptible to considerable measurement error. In order to accelerate glass formulation and design for nuclear waste vitrification, methods are needed to increase laboratory‐scale throughput while maintaining data quality. In this work, a method to remove the residual glass from a corroded coupon using hydrofluoric acid is presented that accelerates the throughput of sample analysis while simultaneously facilitating more accurate measurements.

Amoroso, Jake W. [Savannah River National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2024

A digital twin solution for floating offshore wind turbines validated using a full-scale prototype

Abstract. In this work, we implement, verify, and validate a physics-based digital twin solution applied to a floating offshore wind turbine. The digital twin is validated using measurement data from the full-scale TetraSpar prototype. We focus on the estimation of the aerodynamic loads, wind speed, and section loads along the tower, with the aim of estimating the fatigue lifetime of the tower. Our digital twin solution integrates (1) a Kalman filter to estimate the structural states based on a linear model of the structure and measurements from the turbine, (2) an aerodynamic estimator, and (3) a physics-based virtual sensing procedure to obtain the loads along the tower. The digital twin relies on a set of measurements that are expected to be available on any existing wind turbine (power, pitch, rotor speed, and tower acceleration) and motion sensors that are likely to be standard measurements for a floating platform (inclinometers and GPS sensors). We explore two different pathways to obtain physics-based models: a suite of dedicated Python tools implemented as part of this work and the OpenFAST linearization feature. In our final version of the digital twin, we use components from both approaches. We perform different numerical experiments to verify the individual models of the digital twin. In this simulation realm, we obtain estimated damage equivalent loads of the tower fore–aft bending moment with an accuracy of approximately 5 % to 10 %. When comparing the digital twin estimations with the measurements from the TetraSpar prototype, the errors increased to 10 %–15 % on average. Overall, the accuracy of the results is promising and demonstrates the possibility of using digital twin solutions to estimate fatigue loads on floating offshore wind turbines. A natural continuation of this work would be to implement the monitoring and diagnostics aspect of the digital twin to inform operation and maintenance decisions. The digital twin solution is provided with examples as part of an open-source repository.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-lived period-doubled edge modes of interacting and disorder-free Floquet spin chains

Floquet spin chains have been a venue for understanding topological states of matter that are qualitatively different from their static counterparts by, for example, hosting π edge modes that show stable period-doubled dynamics. However the stability of these edge modes to interactions has traditionally required the system to be many-body localized in order to suppress heating. In contrast, here we show that even in the absence of disorder, and in the presence of bulk heating, π edge modes are long lived. Their lifetime is extracted from exact diagonalization and is found to be non-perturbative in the interaction strength. A tunneling estimate for the lifetime is obtained by mapping the stroboscopic time-evolution to dynamics of a single particle in Krylov subspace. In this subspace, the π edge mode manifests as the quasi-stable edge mode of an inhomogeneous Su-Schrieffer-Heeger model whose dimerization vanishes in the bulk of the Krylov chain.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

RAIS Slope Factors for Radionuclides

For a given radionuclide, Slope Factors (SFs) represent the ELCR equivalent per unit intake (i.e., ingestion or inhalation) or external exposure of that radionuclide. These SFs are used to convert a radionuclide concentration in soil, air, water, or foodstuffs to a radiation ELCR. The primary use of SFs, also called risk coefficients, is to compute the ELCR resulting from site-related exposures. This is accomplished by multiplying the route-specific SF by the CDI of each radionuclide of potential concern for each route of exposure. Ingestion and inhalation slope factors are central estimates in a linear model of the age-averaged, lifetime attributable radiation cancer incidence (fatal and nonfatal cancer) risk per unit of activity inhaled or ingested, expressed as risk/picocurie (pCi). External exposure SFs are central estimates of lifetime attributable radiation cancer incidence risk for each year of exposure to external radiation from photon-emitting radionuclides distributed uniformly in a thick layer of soil, expressed as risk/year per pCi/gram soil. External exposure SF units can also be risk/year per pCi/square centimeters (cm2) of soil. When combined with site-specific media concentration data and appropriate exposure assumptions, SFs can be used to estimate lifetime cancer risks to members of the general population due to radionuclide exposures. The SFs presented on are updated values from Federal Guidance Report (FGR) 13 supplement using the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) 107 decay data. The derivation and values are found in “Calculations of Slope Factors and Dose Coefficients” (ORNL, 2014).

Noto, Katie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling of tungsten filament in gas discharge in H - ion source

Sources of negative ions such as H - are essential elements of proton accelerators and tokamaks. They have limited lifetime. The replacement of an ion source is a costly process causing delays in the operation of the entire machine. The hot tungsten filament is the key element that limits the lifetime of the H - ion source at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) facility. An accurate model, which describes the filament physics and provides a reliable estimate on its lifetime, may significantly improve the operation of the facility. In this report we describe such a model, including a comprehensive list of relevant physical processes from first principles. The model can be used to describe different regimes of operation using diagnostics data as input parameters. It has been benchmarked against the data collected during the production cycle at LANSCE and shows good agreement with experimental data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Design and demonstration of a direct air capture system with moisture-driven CO 2 delivery into aqueous medium

Two direct air capture (DAC) systems were designed and demonstrated to passively capture CO 2 from ambient air and use moisture to release the CO2 into an alkaline medium. A bench-scale system delivering ∼1 g CO 2 d –1 was demonstrated in a laminar flow hood, and a small pilot-scale system that could deliver ∼100 g CO 2 d –1 was operated outdoors in a 4.2 m 2 raceway pond. Novel elongated mesh-tube packets containing anion-exchange resin (AER) beads were found to reduce drying and CO 2 loading time 4.3-fold compared to larger mesh bags. Technoeconomic analysis (TEA) estimates the cost of capturing CO 2 into an alkaline solution, suitable for cultivating photosynthetic microorganisms, to be $\$229$ per tonne for a practical scenario based on current results and $\$72$ per tonne for an aspirational scenario considering improvements to sorbent capacity, hydrophobicity, and sorbent lifetime. TEA further estimates an additional $\$110$ per tonne to extract CO 2 from solution, purify it, and compress it to 15 MPa, suitable for sequestration. Furthermore, moisture-driven processes have the potential to use up to 87% less energy than thermal and/or vacuum swing DAC by using energy from water evaporation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗