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DOE OSTI2024

The Delicate Balance Redux: The Role of Nuclear Forces, Damage Limitation and Uncertainty in Future U.S.-China Crises

What is the impact of damage limitation capabilities like counterforce and missile defenses on deterrence, when their efficacy in stopping an adversary nuclear attack is uncertain? This is a key unanswered question to understand “how much is enough” for the United States to deter China and Russia in future nuclear crises. In this paper we extend an established, single move game theory model to capture the dynamics of two players in a nuclear crisis having varying damage limitation capabilities with uncertain effectiveness. Our model formalizes the logic of the “delicate balance” school of deterrence, which states that leverage in a crisis is driven by the risk each player can take with their combined strategic forces, and that those risks carry uncertainty as nuclear forces are hard to deliver against technologically advanced adversaries. Our model shows that damage limitation capabilities—even those with significant uncertainty around them like cyber or electronic warfare—can drive bargaining outcomes in an array of nuclear crises. We then apply these bargaining outcomes to the expected U.S.-China strategic balance as China builds out its nuclear force through 2035. We apply published force exchange models to determine the expected damage each side will be able to deliver, and we use these values to determine the likelihood that the U.S. can prevail in crises of varying stakes. Last, we show that U.S. policymakers have an array of options to improve future bargaining outcomes, evaluating how additional nuclear forces trade against improvements in damage limitation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Limited Degree of Freedom Drag Coefficients on a Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Simulation

The worldwide effort to design and commission floating offshore wind turbines (FOWT) is motivating the need for reliable numerical models that adequately represent their physical behavior under realistic sea states. However, properly representing the hydrodynamic quadratic damping for FOWT remains uncertain, because of its dependency on the choice of drag coefficients (dimensionless or not). It is hypothesized that the limited degree of freedom (DoF) drag coefficient formulation that uses only translational drag coefficients causes mischaracterization of the rotational DoF drag, leading to underestimation of FOWT global loads, such as tower base fore-aft shear. To address these hydrodynamic modeling uncertainties, different quadratic drag models implemented in the open-source mid-fidelity simulation tool, OpenFAST, were investigated and compared with the experimental data from the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation (OC5) project. The tower base fore-aft shear and up-wave mooring line tension were compared under an irregular wave loading condition to demonstrate the effects of the different damping models. Two types of hydrodynamic quadratic drag formulations were considered: (1) member-based dimensionless drag coefficients applied only at the translational DoF (namely limited-DoF drag model) and (2) quadratic drag matrix model (in dimensional form). Based on the results, the former consistently underestimated the 95th percentile peak loads and spectral responses when compared to the OC5 experimental data. In contrast, the drag matrix models reduced errors in estimates of the tower base shear peak load by 7–10% compared to the limited-DoF drag model. The underestimation in the tower base fore-aft shear was thus inferred be related to mischaracterization of the rotational pitch drag and the heave motion/drag by the limited-DoF model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Isotopic Limit of Recycling

Despite advances in recycling technologies and practices, the world still mostly operates on a once-through materials use cycle. The once-through approach to the materials supply chain cannot work into perpetuity. The vast majority of current recycling efforts focus on mechanical or chemical separation-based techniques and are often subsequently limited on the number of times a component can be recycled or upcycled. By looking at things from a particle physics and nuclear history perspective, we propose a thought experiment to determine the physical limit of recycling and propose subsequent limits and standards to evaluate all recycling efforts. This uncommon approach to analysis demonstrates that the current limits to recycling are not physical in nature but engineering.

Lang, Eric↗

DOE OSTI2025

Limits on the Low-energy Electron Antineutrino Flux from the Brightest Gamma-Ray Burst of All Time

The electron antineutrino flux limits are presented for the brightest gamma-ray burst (GRB) of all time, GRB221009A, over a range of 1.8–200 MeV using the Kamioka Liquid Scintillator Antineutrino Detector. Using multiple time windows ranging from minutes to days surrounding the event to search for electron antineutrinos coincident with the GRB, we set an upper limit on the flux under the assumption of several power-law neutrino source spectra, with power-law indices ranging from 1.5 to 3 in steps of 0.5. No excess was observed in any time windows ranging from seconds to days around the event trigger time T 0 . For a power-law index of 2 and a time window of T 0 ± 500 s, a flux upper limit of 2.34 × 10 9 cm −2 was calculated. The limits are compared to the results presented by IceCube.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

An analysis of physics limited dispatch of nuclear renewable integrated energy systems using deep reinforcement learning and dynamic modeling

Previous approaches to dispatching nuclear integrated energy systems (NIES) have focused on the profitability and flexibility of these systems to operate on energy grids with highly variable pricing. However, due to the complexity involved in modeling and designing these systems, there has been less emphasis on ensuring that these dispatch strategies are physically achievable. It is imperative to develop methods that allow the system to remain within the desired NIES operating conditions and perform this based on realistic limited forecasted information. This research employs next generation artificial intelligence, namely deep reinforcement learning (DRL), and a dynamic system model written in Modelica to find a safe and profitable dispatch strategy for a solar nuclear hybrid design. The DRL agent is shown to find a novel dispatch strategy that manages both power ramping and power levels while respecting operational limits. This DRL-based dispatch is compared to other dispatching strategies including an optimal design solution from mixed integer linear programming (MILP). It is found that incorporating the physics of such a tightly coupled NIES limits the profitability of the MILP-based dispatch strategy. As a result, the MILP solution overestimates the design’s generated revenue. In contrast, DRL significantly reduces the number of breaches of safe operational conditions during energy arbitrage while maintaining profitability. Furthermore, this work paves the way for a more detailed assessment of NIES profitability and could be used to aid operator decisions on future NIES projects.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of radiative heat loss on extinction limits of counterflow premixed ammonia-air flames

The effect of radiative heat loss on counterflow premixed ammonia-air flames has been investigated as a function of equivalence ratio and system pressure. Non-adiabatic counterflow premixed flame simulations incorporating detailed chemistry, transport, and radiative heat transfer in the optically thin limit have been employed to elucidate important underlying physics and extinction characteristics. Similar to methane-air flame systems, non-adiabatic counterflow premixed computations show that the combined effects of positive flame stretch, sub-unity Lewis number, and radiative heat loss lead to the extension of the lean flammability limit for ammonia-air flames, revealing a C-shaped curve near the lean flammability limit that exhibits both radiation-induced and stretch-induced extinction states. Here, the computations compare favorably with the experimentally determined extinction stretch rate values for the stretch-induced extinction states over a wide range of equivalence ratios at different pressures up to 5 atm. A novel feature sensitivity analysis has also been developed to highlight important sensitive reactions for the stretch- and radiation-induced extinction states. Furthermore, the controlling chemistry at the dual-extinction states and at varying pressures are compared and discussed.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Limits on the evolutionary rates of biological traits

Abstract This paper focuses on the maximum speed at which biological evolution can occur. I derive inequalities that limit the rate of evolutionary processes driven by natural selection, mutations, or genetic drift. These rate limits link the variability in a population to evolutionary rates. In particular, high variances in the fitness of a population and of a quantitative trait allow for fast changes in the trait’s average. In contrast, low variability makes a trait less susceptible to random changes due to genetic drift. The results in this article generalize Fisher’s fundamental theorem of natural selection to dynamics that allow for mutations and genetic drift, via trade-off relations that constrain the evolutionary rates of arbitrary traits. The rate limits can be used to probe questions in various evolutionary biology and ecology settings. They apply, for instance, to trait dynamics within or across species or to the evolution of bacteria strains. They apply to any quantitative trait, e.g., from species’ weights to the lengths of DNA strands.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Limits on the Evolutionary Rates of Biological Traits

This paper focuses on the maximum speed at which biological evolution can occur. I derive inequalities that limit the rate of evolutionary processes driven by natural selection, mutations, or genetic drift. These rate limits link the variability in a population to evolutionary rates. In particular, high variances in the fitness of a population and of a quantitative trait allow for fast changes in the trait’s average. In contrast, low variability makes a trait less susceptible to random changes due to genetic drift. The results in this article generalize Fisher’s fundamental theorem of natural selection to dynamics that allow for mutations and genetic drift, via trade-of relations that constrain the evolutionary rates of arbitrary traits. The rate limits can be used to probe questions in various evolutionary biology and ecology settings. They apply, for instance, to trait dynamics within or across species or to the evolution of bacteria strains. They apply to any quantitative trait, e.g., from species’ weights to the lengths of DNA strands.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Methodology for the Analysis of Water Oxidation Electrocatalysts in the Absence of Limiting Current that Avoids the Pitfalls of Existing Methods

Water oxidation is an important reaction studied as a way to generate electrons from water, to promote water splitting and the formation of green hydrogen. When using electrodes to drive homogeneous water oxidation catalysis, cyclic voltammograms are analyzed to provide catalytic rate constants. There are two main methods, foot-of-the-wave analysis (FOWA) and limiting current analysis. FOWA relies on approximations inherent to analyzing water oxidation catalysis, such as determining the formal potential of the catalytic intermediate, E 0 cat . Limiting current methods are the optimal way to analyze catalyst performance but rely on observable limiting current, which is virtually never seen in water oxidation. To avoid those issues, a method is proposed for analyzing nonideal cyclic voltammetry waveshapes in water oxidation: by analyzing rate data across a large range of potentials, an optimal potential, E 0 cat , can be obtained, where catalytic current, i cat , is nearly independent of scan rate and has a linear dependency on buffer concentration. Here, the method is applied to four homogeneous water oxidation catalysts with prior extensive electrochemical elucidation, all of which lack an ideal, purely kinetic waveshape in cyclic voltammetry. Application of the method avoids the biases of the other methods cited for the kinetic analyses of water oxidation catalysts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A collinear perspective on the Regge limit

The high energy (Regge) limit provides a playground for understanding all loop structures of scattering amplitudes, and plays an important role in the description of many phenomenologically relevant cross-sections. While well understood in the planar limit, the structure of non-planar corrections introduces many fascinating complexities, for which a general organizing principle is still lacking. We study the structure of multi-reggeon exchanges in the context of the effective field theory for forward scattering, and derive their factorization into collinear operators (impact factors) and soft operators. We derive the structure of the renormalization group consistency equations in the effective theory, showing how the anomalous dimensions of the soft operators are related to those of the collinear operators, allowing us to derive renormalization group equations in the Regge limit purely from a collinear perspective. The rigidity of the consistency equations provides considerable insight into the all orders organization of Regge amplitudes in the effective theory, as well as its relation to other approaches. Along the way we derive a number of technical results that improve the understanding of the effective theory. We illustrate this collinear perspective by re-deriving all the standard BFKL equations for two-Glauber exchange from purely collinear calculations, and we show that this perspective provides a number of conceptual and computational advantages as compared to the standard view from soft or Glauber physics. We anticipate that this formulation in terms of collinear operators will enable a better understanding of the relation between BFKL and DGLAP in gauge theories, and facilitate the analysis of renormalization group evolution equations describing Reggeization beyond next-to-leading order.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Limits on an exotic Higgs decay from a recast ATLAS four-lepton analysis

The ATLAS collaboration, using 139 fb −1 of 13 TeV collisions from the Large Hadron Collider, has placed limits on the decay of a Z boson to three dark photons. We reproduce the results of the ATLAS analysis, and then recast it as a limit on a exotic Higgs decay mode, in which the Higgs boson decays via a pair of intermediate (pseudo)scalars a to four dark photons V (or some other spin-one meson). Across the mass range for m a and m V , we find limits on the exotic Higgs branching fraction BR(H → aa → V V V V ) in the range of 4 × 10 −5 to 1 × 10 −4 .

Higgs properties↗

DOE OSTI2025

An energetic link between order and strength in metals: A nanocrystalline strength limit in high-entropy alloys and intermetallic compounds

The metallurgy and materials communities have long understood and exploited fundamental links between chemical and structural ordering in metallic solids to tailor their mechanical properties. We extend these ideas to include prediction of the nanocrystalline strength limit in high-entropy alloys and intermetallic compounds, where a breakdown occurs in the classical Hall-Petch strengthening behavior. The highest reported strength achievable through alloying has rapidly climbed and given rise to new classifications of materials with extraordinary properties, with a notable case being nanocrystalline metals. High-entropy alloys (chemically disordered, concentrated solid solutions) and intermetallic compounds are two boundary cases of how tailored order can be used to manipulate mechanical behavior. Here, we show that the complex electronic-structure mechanisms governing the peak strength of alloys and pure metals can be reduced to a few physically meaningful parameters based on their atomic arrangements and used – with no fitting parameters – to predict the maximum strength of these materials. This includes a generalized energy-based accounting for the degree of structural and chemical ordering that allows for rapid and reasonably accurate prediction of peak strength (validated in the nanocrystalline limit) as a function of temperature. Predictions of maximum strength based on the activation energy (with all materials properties derived from DFT calculations or experiments) for a stress-driven transition to an amorphous state is shown to accurately describe the breakdown in Hall-Petch behavior at the smallest crystallite sizes for pure metals, intermetallic compounds, high-entropy alloys, and metallic glasses. Further, this activation energy is also shown to be directly proportional to interstitial electronic charge density, which is a good predictor of ductility, stiffness (moduli), and phase stability in high-entropy alloys and solid metals generally. The proposed framework suggests the possibility of coupling ordering and intrinsic strength to mechanisms like dislocation nucleation, hydrogen embrittlement, and transport properties, such as through correlations between the activation energies for amorphization with stacking-fault and grain boundary energies. It additionally opens the prospect for greatly accelerated structural materials design and development to address materials challenges limiting more sustainable and efficient use of energy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

An update to the Sandia method for creating Typical Meteorological Years from a limited pool of calendar years

Typical Meteorological Years (TMYs) are essential for the efficient evaluation of energy system performance. Ideally, 30 years of weather data are required to generate TMYs, but significantly fewer years are typically available due to practical limitations. To address this issue, an update to the Sandia method was developed, referred to as the Argonne method, to create TMYs from a limited number of years. Furthermore, this method enhances candidate diversity by systematically shifting original candidate months forward or backward by specific days, creating an expanded pool of candidates. The effectiveness of the Argonne method was validated through statistical testing, comparison of monthly average weather parameters, and numerical simulations. The results demonstrate a high probability of identifying at least one shifted month whose cumulative distribution functions of weather parameters closely align with long-term distributions. In 67 % of all comparisons, the monthly average weather parameters in TMYs generated using the Argonne method exhibit better agreement with long-term averages than TMY3. Moreover, in 74 % of the 318 building simulation cases, the Argonne method outperforms TMY3 in estimating long-term average building heating and cooling demands. Therefore, the Argonne method effectively diversifies the candidate pool and produces typical years that provide more accurate estimations of long-term averages compared to TMY3 when only a limited pool of calendar years (10 years or fewer) is available.

Building energy modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Single-Layer Magnet Phase in Intrinsic Magnetic Topological Insulators, [MnTe][Bi 2 Te 3 ] n , Far beyond the Thermodynamic Limit

The intrinsic magnetic topological insulator (IMTI) family [MnTe][Bi 2 Te 3 ]n has demonstrated magneto-topological properties dependent on n, making it a promising platform for advanced electronics and spintronics. However, due to technical barriers in sample synthesis, their properties in the large n limit remain unknown. To overcome this, we utilized the atomic layer-by-layer molecular beam epitaxy (ALL-MBE) technique and achieved IMTIs with n as large as 15, far beyond that previously reported in bulk crystals or thin films. Then, we discover that the “single-layer magnet (SLM)” phase, primarily determined by intralayer ferromagnetic coupling, emerges for n > ∼4 and remains little affected up to n = 15. Nonetheless, still, nonzero, interlayer ferromagnetic coupling is necessary to stabilize the SLM phase, suggesting that the SLM phase eventually disappears in the n → ∞ limit. This study uncovers the secrets of IMTIs beyond the thermodynamic limit and opens a door to diverse magneto-topological applications.

2D ferromagnets↗

DOE OSTI2026

Beyond Thermal Limits: Manipulating Reactive Intermediate Coverages and Turnover Rates via Visible Photon-Mediated Catalysis on Rh-Doped Perovskite Oxides

Catalyst behavior depends on surface adsorbate energetics that are constrained by scaling relationships on metal surfaces. External stimuli (e.g., photons), however, can disrupt these limitations by modulating key intermediate coverages via non-thermal reaction pathways. Here, low-energy visible photon fluxes are utilized to selectively control coverages of strongly bound intermediates on isolated Rh active sites doped within a semiconductor perovskite oxide host (SrTiO 3 ). Red light (632 nm) facilitates selective photolytic CO desorption from rhodium gem-dicarbonyl (Rh(CO) 2 ) species that are ubiquitous reaction intermediates, including for the probe reaction studied herein CO oxidation to CO 2 . Thermochemical CO 2 formation rates (408 K) on Rh-doped SrTiO 3 are limited by adsorbed CO, exhibiting a negative apparent CO rate order (−0.6) and a positive O 2 rate order (+0.4). Arrhenius analyses, anaerobic CO oxidation measurements, and in situ spectroscopies assert that, thermochemically, lattice oxygens from the doped perovskite contribute to CO 2 formation rates. Notably, under red light illumination (0.76–2.02 W cm –2 ), the apparent CO rate order shifts to positive (+1). This, combined with decreasing apparent activation energies and CO coverages (wavelength-agnostic) with increasing photon flux, indicates that photons act selectively toward driving Rh(CO) 2 photolysis, even within complex reaction networks, thereby enhancing Rh accessibility, O 2 dissociation, and consequent rates. Finally, low-energy red light enables more stoichiometric feeds, leading to 650% higher CO 2 rates than those achieved thermally. Overall, this work elucidates how low-energy light can be leveraged, not just to improve reaction rates, but to selectively affect rates of individual elementary steps and key intermediate coverages, thereby breaking conventional scaling relationships that limit thermal catalyst performance.

catalysts↗

DOE OSTI2026

Large Aerosol Particles Favor Haze Conditions Through Limitations on Water Budget and Activation Kinetics

Experiments in the Pi Convection‐Cloud Chamber conducted by systematically changing the diameter of injected dry aerosol particles while holding the temperature difference constant demonstrate that dry diameter strongly influences the onset of haze‐dominated conditions. Two factors contribute: the system becomes water‐limited, resulting in reduction of supersaturation by growing aerosol particles to the activation diameter; and the activation process becomes kinetically limited. Dry aerosol diameter exerts a strong influence on activation time, with a power‐law exponent of 9/2. Kinetically limited activation occurs when the ratio of the activation and droplet residence times is greater than unity. The findings demonstrate that a haze‐dominated state, where cloud formation is suppressed, can be achieved not only with weak supersaturation forcing and high aerosol concentration but also with large, hygroscopic aerosol particles. These results have implications for cloud formation in polluted environments, fog development near the ocean, and hygroscopic cloud seeding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rooftop solar and energy storage programs can remediate energy-limiting behaviors of energy insecure households in the United States

Energy insecurity, or the inability to afford energy needs, affects most low-income households in the United States and leads to risky choices and additional insecurities including food and health. Although there are government programs designed to provide relief from energy insecurity, eligibility is usually determined by household income, and those with incomes close to the threshold face uncertainty or may be left out. In many cases, these households turn to energy-limiting behaviors as a strategy to lower their electric utility bills. Here we explore the relationship between energy insecurity and energy-limiting behaviors and investigate alternative solutions such as energy storage and rooftop solar. This analysis demonstrates that solar and energy storage can offset two-thirds of the bill savings that households could attain through severe energy-limiting behavior. These systems could complement existing energy assistance programs to provide long-term bill relief, enabling occupants to live in their homes with comfort and dignity.

Kerby, Jessica R. [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗

DOE OSTI2026

Solubility-limited depolymerization kinetics in the glycolysis of carbonyl-containing polymers

Chemical recycling of condensation polymers is often rationalized on the basis of the intrinsic reactivity of ester and carbonate functional groups. However, under heterogeneous conditions relevant to plastic waste processing and environmental degradation, bulk depolymerization rates often diverge from trends predicted by homogeneous chemistry. Here, we investigate how polymer–solvent compatibility, catalyst strength, and phase behavior govern the heterogeneous glycolysis of carbonyl-containing polymers. Using poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET), glycol-modified PET (PETG), and bisphenol-A polycarbonate (PC) as model systems, we examine depolymerization kinetics at 180 °C with ethylene glycol and bisphenol A as diols under both amphoteric organosalt (TBD : MSA) and strong base (TBD) catalysis. Despite substantial differences in crystallinity and glycol uptake, PET and PETG depolymerize at comparable rates under organosalt catalysis, while PC depolymerizes significantly more slowly under identical conditions. Time-resolved molecular weight analysis and thermal characterization demonstrate that these rate differences do not arise from crystallinity, swelling, or inherent carbonyl reactivity, but instead reflect solubility-limited kinetics that constrain the transition from heterogeneous to homogeneous reaction regimes. When polymer solubility is low, depolymerization remains heterogeneous and slow; when solubility is enhanced—either through increased polymer–diol compatibility or stronger base catalysis—rapid homogeneous depolymerization is observed, reversing apparent reactivity trends. These results establish solubility and phase behavior as primary determinants of depolymerization kinetics in heterogeneous polymer recycling systems. By demonstrating how catalyst selection and solvent compatibility can expose or overcome solubility limitations, this work provides mechanistic insight to design more energy-efficient and selective chemical recycling processes. More broadly, these findings suggest that polymers with limited solvent or water compatibility may resist chemical degradation in the environment, favoring fragmentation and persistence as micro- and nanoplastics. Understanding solubility-controlled depolymerization offers a pathway toward more sustainable polymer design and end-of-life chemical recovery.

Watson-Sanders, Shelby [Department of Chemistry, U↗