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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

Bayesian inference of structured latent spaces from neural population activity with the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model

The brain produces diverse functions, from perceiving sounds to producing arm reaches, through the collective activity of populations of many neurons. Determining if and how the features of these exogenous variables (e.g., sound frequency, reach angle) are reflected in population neural activity is important for understanding how the brain operates. Often, high-dimensional neural population activity is confined to low-dimensional latent spaces. However, many current methods fail to extract latent spaces that are clearly structured by exogenous variables. This has contributed to a debate about whether or not brains should be thought of as dynamical systems or representational systems. Here, we developed a new latent process Bayesian regression framework, the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model (OSLMM) which introduces an orthogonality constraint amongst time-varying mixture coefficients, and provide Markov chain Monte Carlo inference procedures. We demonstrate superior performance of OSLMM on latent trajectory recovery in synthetic experiments and show superior computational efficiency and prediction performance on several real-world benchmark data sets. We primarily focus on demonstrating the utility of OSLMM in two neural data sets: μ ECoG recordings from rat auditory cortex during presentation of pure tones and multi-single unit recordings form monkey motor cortex during complex arm reaching. We show that OSLMM achieves superior or comparable predictive accuracy of neural data and decoding of external variables (e.g., reach velocity). Most importantly, in both experimental contexts, we demonstrate that OSLMM latent trajectories directly reflect features of the sounds and reaches, demonstrating that neural dynamics are structured by neural representations. Together, these results demonstrate that OSLMM will be useful for the analysis of diverse, large-scale biological time-series datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation Framework for Imperfect Data and Models [Abstract]

Nuclear data evaluation methods conventionally make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate for minimization of a cost function (even for non-linear models); and that both the model (of, e.g., neutron cross section) and experimental data (including their covariance data) are perfect. These assumptions are inherent to the well-known generalized linear least squares (GLLS) minimization method commonly used for evaluations of resolved resonance region (RRR) neutron cross sections. However, these assumptions are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, non-linear models (e.g. R -matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g. discrepant data sets, discrepancies between the previous evaluation and newly measured data, or imperfect covariance data). We remove the said assumptions in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, and implement it using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Parameters of a new kind are introduced to parameterize inherent imperfections, e.g. , any discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data. These new parameters enable evaluators to quantify their expert judgement about any discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. We demonstrate the framework with an ongoing evaluation of 233 U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII library and transmission data measured by Guber, et al. , and compare the posterior parameters to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Bi-Level Linear Programming Model for Automatic Load Shedding: A Distributed Wide-Area Measurement System-based Solution

Load shedding is currently implemented as a two-step based approach. In the first step, manual load shedding is taken place, were system operators, using estimates, inform distribution utilities of predicted stressful conditions. Information provided include the potential use of energy reserves, as well as load shedding amount. In a second step, automatic load shedding is done. The latter is realized using protection relays. While considering frequency variation, pre-defined values of load to be shed and correspondent number of stages for such to be realized are transformed into relay settings. Under-frequency protection relays use only local measurements towards decision making, thus operate in a decentralized architecture. Decision making is done in milliseconds plus breaker time. While this approach has provided much system reliability, considering the new smart grid paradigm, where system dynamics are much faster due to increasing renewable resources penetration, in some operating conditions it will generate sub-optimal solutions, such as islanding. Phasor measurement units provide a source of information which can be useful for this problem. Centralized architecture-based solutions for automatic load shedding, as present in the state-of-the-art, require though total processing times which are not acceptable for real-life implementation. In this work, considering the above, a bi-level linear programming model is presented. The model is implemented considering a distributed architecture while leveraging phasor measurement units data. The upper-level model estimates the current system state. Results of this model are embedded in a lower-level model, which decision variables are the location and load value to be shed. Easy-to-implement model, built-on the classic weighted least squares solution, highlight potential aspects towards real-life applications.

Bretas, Arturo Suman↗

A Multivariate Space‐Time Dynamic Model for Characterizing the Atmospheric Impacts Following the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption

The June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption resulted in a massive increase of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, absorbing radiation and leading to global changes in surface and stratospheric temperatures. A volcanic eruption of this magnitude serves as a natural analog for stratospheric aerosol injection, a proposed solar radiation modification method to combat a warming climate. The impacts of such an event are multifaceted and region-specific. Our goal is to characterize the multivariate and dynamic nature of the atmospheric impacts following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. We developed a multivariate space-time dynamic linear model to understand the full extent of the spatially- and temporally-varying impacts. Specifically, spatial variation is modeled using a flexible set of basis functions for which the basis coefficients are allowed to vary in time through a vector autoregressive (VAR) structure. This novel model is cast in a Dynamic Linear Model (DLM) framework and estimated via a customized MCMC approach. We demonstrate how the model quantifies the relationships between key atmospheric parameters prior to and following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption with reanalysis data from MERRA-2 and highlight when such a model is advantageous over univariate models.

Dynamic Linear Model↗

SAM Linear Fresnel Model, Project B (CRADA Final Report)

Objective performance and economic modeling of solar thermal plants is of keen interest to many EPRI funders. One solar thermal technology that is not currently available to model in any non-vendor, non-proprietary tool is linear Fresnel. This technology has garnered enough interest from EPRI funders to merit investing in a tool to objectively model its performance. Early in 2010, EPRI performed a comparison of modeling solar thermal power plants using the IPSEPRO, CNRS and Solar Advisor (SAM) tools. After completing this effort, EPRI decided to adopt NREL’s Solar Advisor Model as its default modeling tool based in part on user friendliness, flexibility, number of technologies covered, integrated financial model and ease of running sensitivities. Furthermore, it was recognized that NREL continues to invest considerable time and resources into improving capabilities and functionality of the model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Reduced‐Order Modeling for Linearized Representations of Microphysical Process Rates

Abstract Representing cloud microphysical processes in large scale atmospheric models is challenging because many processes depend on the details of the droplet size distribution (DSD, the spectrum of droplets with different sizes in a cloud). While full or partial statistical moments of droplet size distributions are the typical variables used in bulk models, prognostic moments are limited in their ability to represent microphysical processes across the range of conditions experienced in the atmosphere. Microphysical parameterizations employing prognostic moments are known to suffer from structural uncertainty in their representations of inherently higher dimensional cloud processes, which limit model fidelity and lead to forecasting errors. Here we investigate how data‐driven reduced‐order modeling can be used to learn predictors for microphysical process rates in bulk microphysics schemes in an unsupervised manner from higher dimensional bin distributions. Using simulations characteristic of marine stratiform clouds, we simultaneously learn lower dimensional representations of droplet size distributions and predict the evolution of the microphysical state of the system. Droplet collision‐coalescence, the main process for generating warm rain, is estimated to have an intrinsic dimension of three. This intrinsic dimension provides a lower limit on the number of degrees of freedom needed to accurately represent collision‐coalescence in models. We demonstrate how deep learning based reduced‐order modeling can be used to discover intrinsic coordinates describing the microphysical state of the system, where process rates such as collision‐coalescence are globally linearized. These implicitly learned representations of the DSD retain more information about the DSD than typical moment‐based representations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Kinetic Monte Carlo Tool for Kinetic Modeling of Linear Step-Growth Polymerization: Insight into Recycling of Polyurethanes

A kinetic Monte Carlo model of polyurethane polymerization which explicitly tracks the polymer sequences is developed and shared. Here this model is benchmarked against theoretical and experimental polyurethane data and used to investigate the effect on oligomer distributions of unequal reactivity of the first and second isocyanate to react. The reverse reactions using thermodynamic consistency are then added to the framework, and analogous to the addition polymerization concept of ceiling temperature, equilibrium chain length distributions at various temperatures are calculated. For a mixture of three monomers AA, BB, and CC, where BB and CC do not react with one another, are present in stoichiometric proportions, and have different enthalpies of reaction with AA, an odd-even effect emerges. Odd length chains are more likely than even length chains for temperatures at which BB and CC have significantly different equilibrium conversions. The concept of ceiling temperature that is typically cited for addition polymers is extended here to provide a measure of conditions under which depolymerization for recycling is favored.

condensation polymerization↗

Bayesian Monte-Carlo Framework: New Methods for Resonance Parameter Evaluation [Slides]

BMC evaluation is a tool to address imperfect data & models, non-linear models, and non-normal PDFs. ENDF-6 format does not allow non-normal parameter PDFs. Storing posterior sets allow for variance, covariance, skewness, etc. To better predict criticality, we could document non-normal parameter PDFs (i.e. asymmetric uncertainty), consider non-linear sensitivity of $\kappa$ eff to resonance parameters, and reduce uncertainty in key resonance parameters.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Bayesian Monte-Carlo Evaluation Framework for Imperfect Nuclear Data [Slides]

BMC evaluation is a tool used to address imperfect data and models, non-linear models, and non-normal PDFs. ENDF-6 format does not allow non-normal parameter PDFs. Storing posterior sets allows for variance, covariance, skewness, etc. To better predict criticality, we should document non-normal parameter PDFs (i.e. asymmetric uncertainty) and consider non-linear sensitivity of $k_{\text{eff}}$ to resonance parameters.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Non-linear MHD modelling of edge localized modes suppression by resonant magnetic perturbations in ITER

Edge localized modes (ELMs) suppression by resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) was studied with the non-linear magneto-hydro-dynamic (MHD) code JOREK for the ITER H-mode scenarios at 15 MA, 12.5 MA, 10 MA/5.3 T. In this study, the main aim was to demonstrate that ELMs can be suppressed by RMPs while the divertor 3D footprints of heat and particle fluxes remain within divertor material limits. The unstable peeling–ballooning modes responsible for ELMs without RMPs were modelled first for each scenario using numerically accessible parameters for ITER. Then the stabilization of ELMs by RMPs was modelled with the same parameters. RMP spectra, optimized by the linear MHD MARS-F code, with main toroidal harmonics N = 2, N = 3, N = 4 have been used as boundary conditions of the computational domain of JOREK, including realistic RMP coils, main plasma, scrape off layer (SOL) divertor and realistic first wall. The model includes all relevant plasma flows: toroidal rotation, two fluid diamagnetic effects and neoclassical poloidal friction. With RMPs, the main toroidal harmonic and the non-linearly coupled harmonics remain dominant at the plasma edge, producing saturated modes and a continuous MHD turbulent transport thereby avoiding ELM crashes in all scenarios considered here. The threshold for ELM suppression was found at a maximum RMP coils current of 45 kAt–60 kAt compared to the coils maximum capability of 90 kAt. In the high beta poloidal steady-state 10 MA/5.3 T scenario, a rotating QH-mode without ELMs was observed even without RMPs. In this scenario with RMPs N = 3, N = 4 at 20 kAt maximum current in RMP coils, similar QH-mode behaviour was observed however with dominant edge harmonic corresponding to the main toroidal number of RMPs. The present MHD modelling was limited in time by few tens of ms after RMPs were switched on until the magnetic energy of the modes saturates. As a consequence the thermal energy was still evolving on this time scale, far from the ITER confinement time scale and hence only the form of 3D footprints on the divertor targets can be indicated within this set-up. Also note, that the divertor physics was missing in this model, so realistic values of fluxes are out of reach in this modelling. However the stationary 3D divertor and particle fluxes could be simply extrapolated from these results to the stationary situation considering that a large power fraction should be radiated in the core and SOL and only about 50 MW power is going to the divertor, which is an arbitrary, but reasonable number used here. The 3D footprints with RMPs show the characteristic splitting with the main RMP toroidal symmetry. The maximum radial extension of the footprints typically was ~20 cm in inner divertor and ~40 cm in outer divertor with stationary heat fluxes decreasing further out from the initial strike point from ~5 MW m ₋2 to ~1 MW m ₋2 assuming a total power in the divertor and walls is 50 MW. The heat fluxes remain within the divertor target and baffle areas, however with rather small margin in the outer divertor which could be an issue for the first wall especially in transient regimes when part of the plasma thermal energy is released due to switching on the RMP coils. This fact should be considered when RMPs are applied with a more favorable application before or soon after the L–H transition, although optimization is required to avoid increasing the L–H power threshold with RMPs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

An interlaboratory comparison of mid-infrared spectra acquisition: Instruments and procedures matter

Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy has been extensively employed to deliver timely and cost-effective predictions of a number of soil properties. However, although several soil spectral laboratories have been established worldwide, the distinct characteristics of instruments and operations still hamper further integration and interoperability across mid-infrared (MIR) soil spectral libraries. In this study, we conducted a large-scale ring trial experiment to understand the lab-to-lab variability of multiple MIR instruments. By developing a systematic evaluation of different mathematical treatments with modeling algorithms, including regular preprocessing and spectral standardization, we quantified and evaluated instruments' dissimilarity and how this impacts internal and shared model performance. We found that all instruments delivered good predictions when calibrated internally using the same instruments' characteristics and standard operating procedures by solely relying on regular spectral preprocessing that accounts for light scattering and multiplicative/additive effects, e.g., using standard normal variate (SNV). When performing model transfer from a large public library (the USDA NSSCKSSL MIR library) to secondary instruments, good performance was also achieved by regular preprocessing (e. g., SNV) if both instruments shared the same manufacturer. However, significant differences between the KSSL MIR library and contrasting ring trial instruments responses were evident and confirmed by a semi-unsupervised spectral clustering. For heavily contrasting setups, spectral standardization was necessary before transferring prediction models. Non-linear model types like Cubist and memory-based learning delivered more precise estimates because they seemed to be less sensitive to spectral variations than global partial least square regression. In summary, the results from this study can assist new laboratories in building spectroscopy capacity utilizing existing MIR spectral libraries and support the recent global efforts to make soil spectroscopy universally accessible with centralized or shared operating procedures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modal dynamics and flutter analysis of floating offshore vertical axis wind turbines

Floating platforms provide vertical axis wind turbines (VAWTs) significant advantages over offshore horizontal axis wind turbines, which has led to increased research interest in offshore VAWT technology. Here, this paper examines dynamic stability of floating VAWTs and presents structural dynamic and aero-elastic flutter analysis of utility-scale 5 MW floating VAWTs by coupling a rotor finite element model with a linearized model for the floating system. The coupled floating VAWT model is utilized to study the effects of tower height, number of blades, blade tapering scheme, and impacts of the floating platform on modal properties and flutter. The study provides important new results and guidance to floating VAWT designers: (1) tower height increase leads to lower tower frequencies more prone to resonance, (2) by moving from land-based foundations to a floating TLP foundation, tower-mode frequency is increased significantly (by 49%–68%) which mitigates resonance and increases the flutter RPM (154% increase), (3) increasing the number of blades reduces the tower mode frequencies for both land-based and floating configuration, and (4) blade chord tapering can have a significant impact on increasing the tower mode flutter RPM. Further, analysis of low-frequency rigid body modes shows a safe, higher flutter RPM relative to the operating RPM.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Predicting the Evolution of Shallow Cumulus Clouds With a Lotka‐Volterra Like Model

Abstract In numerical weather prediction and climate models, boundary‐layer clouds are controlled by a wide range of subgrid‐scale processes. However, understanding the nature of these processes and their role in the evolution of the cloud size distribution as a whole has been elusive. To address this issue, we adopt a novel empirical framework from the field of population dynamics to model the evolution of cloud size statistics by using the shallow cumulus properties obtained from a large‐eddy simulation (LES). Our approach involves representing the cloud size distribution and the total cloud area using a revised Lotka‐Volterra model and ridge linear model, respectively. The physical interpretation of the total cloud area and coefficients obtained from the optimization of the models reveals three stages probably interpreted by dominant processes: the formation of new clouds, the growth of single clouds, and a steady state with organized transitions involving the growth and decay of multiple clouds. Furthermore, we showcase the potential of this framework to serve as a component of scale‐aware parameterizations of shallow‐convective clouds in atmospheric models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

From Data to Insights: A Covariate Analysis of the IARPA BRIAR Dataset for Multimodal Biometric Recognition Algorithms at Altitude and Range

This paper examines covariate effects on fused whole body biometrics performance in the IARPA BRIAR dataset, specifically focusing on UAV platforms, elevated positions, and distances up to 1000 meters. The dataset includes outdoor videos compared with indoor images and controlled gait recordings. Normalized raw fusion scores relate directly to predicted false accept rates (FAR), offering an intuitive means for interpreting model results. A linear model is developed to predict biometric algorithm scores, analyzing their performance to identify the most influential covariates on accuracy at altitude and range. Weather factors like temperature, wind speed, solar loading, and turbulence are also investigated in this analysis. The study found that resolution and camera distance best predicted accuracy and findings can guide future research and development efforts in long-range/elevated/UAV biometrics and support the creation of more reliable and robust systems for national security and other critical domains.

Bolme, David↗

Bayesian Monte-Carlo Evaluation Framework for Imperfect Data [Slides]

BMC evaluation is a tool to address imperfect data & models, non-linear models, and non-normal PDFs. New posterior PDFs may need new storage formats to allow storage of non-normal PDFs. Storing posterior sets allows for: variance, covariance, skewness, etc.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Generalized Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation [Slides]

Bayesian Monte Carlo is a tool to address imperfect data & models, non-linear models, non-normal PDFs, and integration of differential and integral data. Simple propagation to criticality shows effects of new $\mathcal{L}$($β|z,γ$).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Iterative Linearization for Phasor-Defined Optimal Power Dispatch

Optimal power flow (OPF) problems, which dispatch power targets to controllable generating units across a network, must generally account for non-convex constraints on power flow. Furthermore, adapting those problems so as to make them solvable with convex optimization techniques is an area of much academic and operational interest. In this paper, we present a method for solving OPF as a quadratic program by iteratively refining and re-initializing a linearized model of power flow based on the outputs of an associated nonlinear solver. The linear model on which we demonstrate this method is an adapted version of an approximation designed for use with unbalanced distribution networks. As an important benefit, the model allows for the explicit inclusion of nodal voltage phasor values in both the OPF problem's objective and its constraints, which opens the door to the idea of phasor-based control (PBC) design. We show in simulations on the IEEE 13-node test feeder that our method quickly converges to a set of phasor targets that are sufficiently precise for use in operations at the distribution level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Application of Koopman operator for model-based control of fracture propagation and proppant transport in hydraulic fracturing operation

This work explores the application of the recently developed Koopman operator approach for model identification and feedback control of a hydraulic fracturing process. Controlling fracture propagation and proppant transport with precision is a challenge due in large part to the difficulty of constructing approximate models that accurately capture the characteristic moving boundary and highly-coupled dynamics exhibited by the process. Koopman operator theory is particularly attractive here as it offers a way to explicitly construct linear representations for even highly nonlinear dynamics. The method is data-driven and relies on lifting the states to an infinite-dimensional space of functions called observables where the dynamics are governed by a linear Koopman operator. Here this work considers two problems: (a) fracture geometry control, and (b) proppant concentration control. In both cases, an approximate linear model of the corresponding dynamics is constructed and used to design a model predictive controller (MPC). The manuscript shows that in the case of highly nonlinear dynamics, as observed in the proppant concentration, use of canonical functions in the observable basis fails. In such cases, a priori system knowledge can be leveraged to choose the required basis. The numerical experiments demonstrate that the Koopman linear model shows excellent agreement with the real system and successfully achieves the desired target values maximizing the oil and gas productivity. Additionally, due to its linear structure, the Koopman models allow convex MPC formulations that avoid any issues associated with nonlinear optimization.

42 ENGINEERING↗