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At least 73 records · Page 4

The Martian Dust Cycle: Observations and Modeling

The dust cycle is critically important for Mars' current climate system. Suspended atmospheric dust affects the radiative balance of the atmosphere, and thus greatly influences the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere. Evidence for the presence of dust in the Martian atmosphere can be traced back to yellow clouds telescopically observed as early as the early 19th century. The Mariner 9 orbiter arrived at Mars in November of 1971 to find a planet completely enshrouded in airborne dust. Since that time, the exchange of dust between the planet's surface and atmosphere and the role of airborne dust on Mars' weather and climate has been studied using observations and numerical models. The goal of this talk is to give an overview of the observations and to discuss the successes and challenges associated with modeling the dust cycle. Dust raising events on Mars range in size from meters to hundreds of kilometers. During some years, regional storms merge to produce hemispheric or planet encircling dust clouds that obscure the surface and raise atmospheric temperatures by tens of kelvin. The interannual variability of planet encircling dust storms is poorly understood. Although the occurrence and season of large regional and global dust storms are highly variable from one year to the next, there are many features of the dust cycle that occur year after year. A low-level dust haze is maintained during northern spring and summer, while elevated levels of atmospheric dust occur during northern autumn and winter. During years without global-scale dust storms, two peaks in total dust loading are generally observed: one peak occurs before northern winter solstice and one peak occurs after northern winter solstice. Numerical modeling studies attempting to interactively simulate the Martian dust cycle with general circulation models (GCMs) include the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Two dust lifting processes are commonly represented in these models: wind-stress lifting (i.e., saltation) and dust devil lifting. Although the predicted patterns of dust lifting and atmospheric dust loading from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are many notable differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles. For example, it is common for models to predict one peak in global dust loading near northern winter solstice due to excessive dust lifting in the Hellas basin at this season. Additionally, it is difficult for models to realistically capture the observed interannual variability in global dust storms. New avenues of dust cycle modeling research include exploring the effects of finite surface dust reservoirs and the effects of coupling the dust and water cycles on the predicted dust cycle.

Kahre, Melinda A.↗

Effects of external influences in subsonic delta wing vortices

An experimental investigation was conducted to examine inconsistencies in reported studies for the vortical flow over highly-swept delta wings. A 76-deg swept delta wing was tested in three facilities with open and closed test sections and different model-support systems. The results obtained include surface oil-flow patterns, off-body laser-light-sheet flow visualization, and aerodynamic load measurements. Parameters such as the wall boundaries and model-support systems can drastically alter the loads. The effect of a high level of free-stream turbulence on the delta-wing flowfield was also examined and found to be significant. The increase in free-stream turbulence caused boundary-layer transition, unsteadiness in the vortex core positions, and altered the loads and moments.

Washburn, Anthony E.↗

Restoration Strategy for Active Distribution Systems Considering Endogenous Uncertainty in Cold Load Pickup

Cold load pickup (CLPU) phenomenon is identified as the persistent power inrush upon a sudden load pickup after an outage. Under the active distribution system (ADS) paradigm, where distributed energy resources (DERs) are extensively installed, the decreased outage duration can induce a strong interdependence between CLPU pattern and load pickup decisions. In this paper, we propose a novel modelling technique to tractably capture the decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) inherent in the CLPU process. Subsequently, a two-stage stochastic decision-dependent service restoration (SDDSR) model is constructed, where first stage searches for the optimal switching sequences to decide step-wise network topology, and the second stage optimizes the detailed generation schedule of DERs as well as the energization of switchable loads. Further, to tackle the computational burdens introduced by mixed-integer recourse, the progressive hedging algorithm (PHA) is utilized to decompose the original model into scenario-wise subproblems that can be solved in parallel. The numerical test on modified IEEE 123-node test feeders has verified the efficiency of our proposed SDDSR model and provided fresh insights into the monetary and secure values of DDU quantification.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Subsonic Wing Loadings on a 45 deg Sweptback Wing and Body Combination at High Angles of Attack

A study has been made of the subsonic pressure distributions and loadings for a 45 deg sweptback-wing and body combination at angles of attack up to 36 deg. The wing had an aspect ratio of 5.5, a taper ratio of 0.53, and NACA 64A010 sections normal to the quarter-chord line and was mounted on a slender body of fineness ratio 12.5. Test results are presented for Mach numbers of 0.30 and 0.50 with corresponding Reynolds numbers of 1.5 and 2.0 million, respectively. The stall patterns and spanwise loadings at high angles of attack for the present model are correlated with those for other 45 deg sweptback wing and body combinations having aspect ratios between 4.0 and 8.0. A tentative approach is presented for extrapolating the Weissinger span-loading method to higher angles of attack, and for deriving the spanwise-load distributions for 45 deg sweptback wings at angles of attack above 20 deg. The investigation also included tests of the body in combination with only one panel of the swept wing. The problem of estimating the normal-force coefficient for the single panel at high angles of attack is considered.

Axelson, John A↗

A model study of landing mat subjected to C-5A loadings

The 1.22 x 1.37 m mat runway in the standard brick pattern with transverse hinged joints is more stable and less susceptible to a buckling failure than the 0.60 x 2.74 m mat runway. Use of tension anchors appears to be a feasible means of controlling longitudinal displacement of the runway and potential runway buckling. Anchors appear to be a practical means to reduce maintenance on mat runways. The 1.22 x 1.37 m mat in the alternate brick pattern or the 90 deg rotated standard brick pattern forms a dynamically more stable runway with a high resistance to buckling failure. The runway in these patterns is much stiffer and longitudinal movement was less than for the standard brick pattern. The model 1.22 x 1.37 m alternate brick pattern runway was difficult to assemble and extremely difficult to take apart.

Blotter, P. T.↗

User-Preference-Driven Model Predictive Control of Residential Building Loads and Battery Storage for Demand Response: Preprint

This paper presents a user-preference-driven home energy management system (HEMS) for demand response (DR) with residential building loads and battery storage. The HEMS is based on a multi-objective model predictive control algorithm, where the objectives include energy cost, thermal comfort, and carbon emission. A multi-criterion decision making method originating from social science is used to quickly determine user preferences based on a brief survey and derive the weights of different objectives used in the optimization process. Besides the residential appliances used in the traditional DR programs, a home battery system is integrated into the HEMS to improve the flexibility and reliability of the DR resources. Simulation studies have been performed on field data from a residential building stock data set. Appliance models and usage patterns were learned from the data to predict the DR resource availability. Results indicate the HEMS was able to provide a significant amount of load reduction with less than 20% prediction error in both heating and cooling cases.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Grid Value Analysis of Geothermal Systems for End-Use Applications

Fuel based end-uses for residential, commercial, and industrial consumers require a technology change to achieve economy-wide decarbonization. Space heating accounts for 42% of residential and 32% of commercial energy demand, much of which is currently met through carbon emitting fuels. Industrial energy use is heavily fuel based with electricity currently representing 13% of energy demand. Geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) and geothermal direct use can eliminate the need for CO2 emitting and simultaneously allow for more efficient electrification of end uses. Past work has assessed the impact on total energy costs and generation investments but did not identify specific grid services benefited. Energy usage in residential and commercial structures was assessed by leveraging data from ComStock and ResStock models. These models utilize housing attributes, occupancy patterns, weather data, and sophisticated energy simulations to generate hourly load profiles for individual buildings identified by unique IDs associated with their locations. Industrial sector energy use was evaluated using information from the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) as well as plant utilization data from the US Census to estimate hourly plant operations. The change in end-use demand for electricity, natural gas, and other fuels was calculated for different technologies that could meet this need. Using the ReEDS capacity expansion model, we produce regional price profiles that capture the grid benefit associated with the amount and timing of energy shifts in the power system from the adoption of geothermal systems relative to other technologies that could meet space heating, space cooling, and process heat requirements. We find that geothermal systems for meeting end-use demand add value to the energy system. In buildings where geothermal systems increase grid costs, these values are offset by reduced fuel costs and benefits to externalities, including emissions and health impacts.

decarbonization↗

Modeling of Propagation of Interacting Cracks Under Hydraulic Pressure Gradient

A robust and reliable numerical model for fracture initiation and propagation, which includes the interactions among propagating fractures and the coupling between deformation, fracturing and fluid flow in fracture apertures and in the permeable rock matrix, would be an important tool for developing a better understanding of fracturing behaviors of crystalline brittle rocks driven by thermal and (or) hydraulic pressure gradients. In this paper, we present a physics-based hydraulic fracturing simulator based on coupling a quasi-static discrete element model (DEM) for deformation and fracturing with conjugate lattice network flow model for fluid flow in both fractures and porous matrix. Fracturing is represented explicitly by removing broken bonds from the network to represent microcracks. Initiation of new microfractures and growth and coalescence of the microcracks leads to the formation of macroscopic fractures when external and/or internal loads are applied. The coupled DEM-network flow model reproduces realistic growth pattern of hydraulic fractures. In particular, simulation results of perforated horizontal wellbore clearly demonstrate that elastic interactions among multiple propagating fractures, fluid viscosity, strong coupling between fluid pressure fluctuations within fractures and fracturing, and lower length scale heterogeneities, collectively lead to complicated fracturing patterns.

hydraulic fracturing↗

Database Reorganization in Parallel Disk Arrays with I/O Service Stealing

We present a model for data reorganization in parallel disk systems that is geared towards load balancing in an environment with periodic access patterns. Data reorganization is performed by disk cooling, i.e. migrating files or extents from the hottest disks to the coldest ones. We develop an approximate queueing model for determining the effective arrival rates of cooling requests and discuss its use in assessing the costs versus benefits of cooling.

Zabback, Peter↗

Robust Deep Gaussian Process-Based Probabilistic Electrical Load Forecasting Against Anomalous Events

The abnormal events, such as the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic, can significantly change the load behaviors, leading to huge challenges for traditional short-term forecasting methods. This article proposes a robust deep Gaussian processes (DGP)-based probabilistic load forecasting method using a limited number of data. Since the proposed method only requires a limited number of training samples for load forecasting, it allows us to deal with extreme scenarios that cause short-term load behavior changes. In particular, the load forecasting at the beginning of abnormal event is cast as a regression problem with limited training samples and solved by double stochastic variational inference DGP. The mobility data are also utilized to deal with the uncertainties and pattern changes and enhance the flexibility of the forecasting model. The proposed method can quantify the uncertainties of load forecasting outcomes, which would be essential under uncertain inputs. Extensive comparison results with other state-of-the-art point and probabilistic forecasting methods show that our proposed approach can achieve high forecasting accuracies with only a limited number of data while maintaining the excellent performance of capturing the forecasting uncertainties.

anomalous events↗

Multi Resolution In-Situ Testing and Multiscale Simulation for Creep Fatigue Damage Analysis of Alloy 617

This report outlines the research activities that were carried out for the integrated experimental and simulation investigation of creep-fatigue damage mechanism and life prediction of Nickel-based alloy, Inconel 617 at high temperatures (950° and 850°). First, a novel experimental design using a hybrid control technique is proposed. The newly developed experimental technique can generate different combinations of creep and fatigue damage by changing the experimental design parameters. Next, detailed imaging analysis and statistical data analysis are performed to quantify the failure mechanisms of the creep fatigue of alloy 617 at high temperatures. It is observed that the creep damage is directly associated with the internal voids at the grain boundaries and the fatigue damage is directly related to the surface cracking. It is also observed that the classical time fraction approach does not has a good correlation with the experimental observed damage features. An effective time fraction parameter is seen to have an excellent correlation with the material microstructural damage. Thus, a new empirical damage interaction diagram is proposed based on the experimental observations. Following this, a macro level viscoplastic model coupled with damage is developed to simulate the stress/strain response under creep fatigue loadings. A damage rate function based on the hysteresis energy and creep energy is proposed to capture the softening behavior of the material and a good correlation with life prediction and material hysteresis behavior is observed. The simulation work is extended to include the microstructural heterogeneity. A crystal plasticity finite element model considering isothermal and large deformation conditions at the microstructural scale has been developed for fatigue, creep-fatigue as well as creep deformation and rupture at high temperature. The model considers collective dislocation glide and climb of the grains and progressive damage accumulation of the grain boundaries. The glide model incorporates a slip resistance evolution model that characterizes the solute-drag creep effects and can capture well the stress-strain and stress time response of fatigue and creep-fatigue tests at various strain ranges and hold times. In order to accurately capture the creep strains that accumulate particularly at relatively low stress levels, a dislocation climb model has been incorporated into the crystal plasticity modeling framework. The dislocation climb model parameters are calibrated and verified through experimental creep tests performed at 950°. In addition, a cohesive zone model has been fully implemented in the context of the crystal plasticity finite element model to capture the intergranular creep damage. The parameters of the cohesive zone model have been calibrated using available experimental data. The numerical simulations illustrate the capability of the proposed model in capturing damage initiation and growth under creep loads as compared to the experimental observations. The microscale analysis sheds light on the crack initiation sites and propagation patterns within the microstructure. The model is also utilized to investigate the hybrid-controlled creep-fatigue tests and has been found to capture reasonably well the stress-strain response with different hold times and hold stress magnitudes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Constitutive modeling of the dynamic-tensile-extrusion test of PTFE

Use of polymers in defense, aerospace and industrial applications under extreme loading conditions makes prediction of the behavior of these materials very important. Crucial to this is knowledge of the physical damage response in association with phase transformations during loading and the ability to predict this via multi-phase simulation accounting for thermodynamical non-equilibrium and strain rate sensitivity. The current work analyzes Dynamic-Tensile-Extrusion (Dyn-Ten-Ext) experiments on polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE). In particular, the phase transition during loading and subsequent tension are analyzed using a two-phase rate sensitive material model implemented in the CTH hydrocode. The calculations are compared with experimental high-speed photography. Deformation patterns and their link with changing loading modes are analyzed numerically and correlated to the test observations. It is concluded that the phase transformation is not as critical to the response of PTFE under Dyn-Ten-Ext loading as it is during the Taylor rod impact testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The AN neutron transport by nodal diffusion

The two group diffusion model combined to a nodal approach in space is the preferred scheme for the industrial simulation of nuclear water reactors. The main selling point is the speed of computation, allowing a large number of parametric studies. Anyway, the drawbacks of the underlying diffusion equation may arise with highly heterogeneous interfaces, often encountered in modern UO{sub 2} and MO{sub x} fuel loading patterns, and boron less controlled systems. This paper aims at showing how the simplified AN transport model, equivalent to the well known SPN, can be implemented in standard diffusion codes with minor modifications. Some numerical results are illustrated. (authors)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Simulation of Complex Cracking in Plain Weave C/SiC Composite under Biaxial Loading

Finite element analysis is performed on a mesh, based on computed geometry of a plain weave C/SiC composite with assumed internal stacking, to reveal the pattern of internal damage due to biaxial normal cyclic loading. The simulation encompasses intertow matrix cracking, matrix cracking inside the tows, and separation at the tow-intertow matrix and tow-tow interfaces. All these dissipative behaviors are represented by traction-separation cohesive laws. Not aimed at quantitatively predicting the overall stress-strain relation, the simulation, however, does not take the actual process of fiber debonding into account. The fiber tows are represented by a simple rule-of-mixture model where the reinforcing phase is a hypothetical one-dimensional material. Numerical results indicate that for the plain weave C/SiC composite, 1) matrix-crack initiation sites are primarily determined by large intertow matrix voids and interlayer tow-tow contacts, 2) the pattern of internal damage strongly depends on the loading path and initial stress, 3) compressive loading inflicts virtually no damage evolution. KEY WORDS: ceramic matrix composite, plain weave, cohesive model, brittle failure, smeared crack model, progressive damage, meso-mechanical analysis, finite element.

Cheng, Ron-Bin↗

Application of a Linear Input/Output Model to Tankless Water Heaters

In this study, the applicability of a linear input/output model to gas-fired, tankless water heaters has been evaluated. This simple model assumes that the relationship between input and output, averaged over both active draw and idle periods, is linear. This approach is being applied to boilers in other studies and offers the potential to make a small number of simple measurements to obtain the model parameters. These parameters can then be used to predict performance under complex load patterns. Both condensing and non-condensing water heaters have been tested under a very wide range of load conditions. It is shown that this approach can be used to reproduce performance metrics, such as the energy factor, and can be used to evaluate the impacts of alternative draw patterns and conditions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Modeling propellant-based stimulation of a borehole with peridynamics

A non-local formulation of classical continuum mechanics theory known as peridynamics is used to study fracture initiation and growth from a wellbore penetrating the subsurface within the context of propellant-based stimulation. The principal objectives of this work are to analyze the influence of loading conditions on the resulting fracture pattern, to investigate the effect of in-situ stress anisotropy on fracture propagation, and to assess the suitability of peridynamics for modeling complex fracture formation. In peridynamics, the momentum equation from the classical theory of solid mechanics is replaced by a non-local analogue, which results in an integrodifferential conservation equation. A continuum material is discretized with a set of material points that interact with all other points within a specified distance. Interactions between points are governed by bonds that can deform and break depending on loading conditions. The accumulated breakage of bonds gives rise to a picture of complex growth of fractures that is seen as a key advantage in the peridynamic representation of discontinuities. It is shown that the loading rate significantly influences the number and ex- tent of fractures initiated from a borehole. Results show that low loading rates produce fewer but longer fractures, whereas high loading rates produce numerous shorter fractures around the borehole. The numerical method is able to predict fracture growth patterns over a wide range of loading and stress conditions. Our results also show that fracture growth is attenuated with increasing in-situ confining stress, and, in the case of confining stress anisotropy, fracture extensions are largest in the direction perpendicular to the minimum compressive stress. Since the results are in broad qualitative agreement with experimental and numerical studies found in the literature, suggesting that peridynamics can be a powerful tool in the study of complex fracture network formation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Data-Driven Distribution System Load Modeling for Quasi-Static Time-Series Simulation

This paper presents a data-driven distribution system load modeling methodology targeting quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulation. The proposed methodology is appropriate for modeling down to the level of the customer transformer, and it has three main features: 1) both load pattern diversity and intra-second load variability are considered, 2) the load profiles can be populated for multiple nodes on a circuit in such a way that the diversity factor of the feeder can be defined and tuned, and 3) the load aggregation method can be used to populate the profiles for different nodes at various load aggregation levels. Furthermore, as the foundation of the modeling methodology, variability and diversity libraries have been established based on high-resolution load data collected on customer transformers from real utility feeders. The proposed modeling methodology has been used to build load data sets for both the IEEE 123-bus feeder model and a realistic utility feeder model. The QSTS simulation results on the two evaluation feeders have demonstrated that the load data sets established from the proposed modeling methodology can effectively capture the load impact on feeder operations. For the realistic utility feeder, the effectiveness of the proposed methodology has also been validated by comparing the voltage characteristics of the feeder with modeled loads and the voltage characteristics of realistic voltage data from the same feeder.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Eigenvalue error analysis of viscously damped structures using a Ritz reduction method

The efficient solution of the eigenvalue problem that results from inserting passive dampers with variable stiffness and damping coefficients into a structure is addressed. Eigenanalysis of reduced models obtained by retaining a number of normal modes augmented with Ritz vectors corresponding to the static solutions resulting from the load patterns introduced by the dampers has been empirically shown to yield excellent approximations to the full eigenvalue problem. An analysis of this technique in the case of a single damper is presented. A priori and a posteriori error estimates are generated and tested on numerical examples. Comparison theorems with modally truncated models and a Markov parameter matching reduced-order model are derived. These theorems corroborate the heuristic that residual flexibility methods improve low-frequency approximation of the system. The analysis leads to other techniques for eigenvalue approximation. Approximate closed-form solutions are derived that include a refinement to eigenvalue derivative methods for approximation. An efficient Newton scheme is also developed. A numerical example is presented demonstrating the effectiveness of each of these methods.

Chu, Cheng-Chih↗