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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Grid-connected heat pump water heater benefits for low-income households in the Southeastern United States

Energy efficient heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) reduce customer energy costs; grid-connected controls further increase HPWH value by enabling energy storage and shifting demand to cheaper, off-peak periods. However, a HPWH’s first cost premium can put it out of reach for low-income customers. This paper will present results of an ongoing study exploring the benefits of load shifting HPWHs for 24 low-income households, aiming to support increased product deployment in this demographic. The study uses EcoPort modules to shift HPWH load for a study sample consisting primarily of low-income adults and seniors in North Carolina. Building upon prior studies, the study’s HPWH operating schedules are designed to maximize shifted energy and minimize participant electricity costs based on local time-of-use rates. The study documents load profiles of grid-connected HPWHs in a less-studied demographic group and explores how certain groups may have particularly flexible loads due to their unique usage profiles. The results are relevant for HPWH product performance in the Southeast. The study will quantify HPWH load shifting performance during North Carolina’s hot summer, temperate shoulder, and occasionally sub-freezing winter seasons, and the study includes installations in conditioned, semi-conditioned, and unconditioned spaces. Finally, study results will also explore how controlled HPWHs can provide value to the regional grid by reducing seasonal peaks via demand response. Lessons learned include HPWH acceptance for low-income and senior users, best practices for maintaining HPWH connectivity among users without prior product experience, and strategies to leverage remote monitoring to ensure optimal operation and enhance HPWH reliability.

Urigwe, Daniela↗
NASA NTRS1995

The NASA landing gear test airplane

A tire and landing gear test facility has been developed and incorporated into a Convair 990 aircraft. The system can simulate tire vertical load profiles to 250,000 lb, sideslip angles to 15 degrees, and wheel braking on actual runways. Onboard computers control the preprogrammed test profiles through a feedback loop and also record three axis loads, tire slip angle, and tire condition. The aircraft to date has provided tire force and wear data for the Shuttle Orbiter tire on three different runways and at east and west coast landing sites. This report discusses the role of this facility in complementing existing ground tire and landing gear test facilities, and how this facility can simultaneously simulate the vertical load, tire slip, velocity, and surface for an entire aircraft landing. A description is given of the aircraft as well as the test system. An example of a typical test sequence is presented. Data collection and reduction from this facility are discussed, as well as accuracies of calculated parameters. Validation of the facility through ground and flight tests is presented. Tests to date have shown that this facility can operate at remote sites and gather complete data sets of load, slip, and velocity on actual runway surfaces. The ground and flight tests have led to a successful validation of this test facility.

Carter, John F.↗
NASA NTRS1994

MSAT boom joint testing and load absorber design

Through a series of component and system-level tests, the torque margin for the MSAT booms is being determined. The verification process has yielded a number of results and lessons that can be applied to many other types of deployable spacecraft mechanisms. The MSAT load absorber has proven to be an effective way to provide high energy dissipation using crushable honeycomb. Using two stages of crushable honeycomb and a fusible link, a complex crush load profile has been designed and implemented. The design features of the load absorber lend themselves to use in other spacecraft applications.

Klinker, D. H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Orion Flywheel to Commercially Available Flywheel Device

INTRODUCTION: The chosen exercise device for the Orion Multi-purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) for Artemis missions is the Orion Flywheel (OFW), which was selected in 2017 from a pool of exercise devices. The Orion Flywheel is to be installed in the MPCV for its first use during the Artemis II mission and will be utilized for subsequent Artemis missions. The OFW provides the capability to perform both resistive and aerobic exercises while taking up a small volume and not requiring power. Aerobic exercise consists of rowing while resistive exercise includes the deadlift, harness squat, and deadlift high pull among others. The efficacy of the OFW as an exercise countermeasure to spaceflight deconditioning has not yet been fully evaluated. A future HRP-funded study using head-down tilt bed rest is planned to evaluate the efficacy of the OFW to mitigate aerobic and muscular deconditioning. The OFW, made by KBR, is a specialized device that poses high costs for purchase and maintenance. The aim of the study is to determine if a commercially available alternative could be used as a backup for the OFW during the bed rest study or as an alternative in other studies. This study seeks to compare the loading profile and mechanics of a commercial flywheel device (kBox Pro) with the three resistance settings of the OFW using a controlled, instrumented setup to validate its acceptability as a backup. METHODS: An experimental setup was designed to simulate human use of the OFW. Flywheel devices can have varied actuated inertial mass and strap length. The inertial mass refers to the flywheel itself or the object that spins as the result of the movement of the strap. The OFW has three gears actuated with a lever, with the low gear used for aerobic rowing and the medium and high gears used for resistance exercises. These gears correspond to increasing flywheel inertia, which corresponds to a certain number and sizes of inertial plates on a commercial flywheel. The kBox Pro has varied sizes of inertial discs that are installed to the external shaft of the device and can be configured to roughly match the inertia seen in the OFW per gear setting. The strap length can be adjusted to allow for different ranges of motion. The experimental setup allows for the simulation of rowing, harness squats, and deadlift high pulls with corresponding exercise strap lengths. All three OFW gears are to be tested, as well as multiple combinations of kBox discs. The setup was created using a system of pulleys and cables to minimize friction loss. The system is actuated through the dropping of a connected mass which, through the pulley system, pulls the strap of the exercise device upwards as if a human was exercising. A string potentiometer and tensile force transducer are used to measure strap displacement and strap force, respectively. The masses dropped are exercise chains that simulate the decrease in force observed throughout a typical exercise. As the chains are lowered to the ground, they begin to spool and therefore are no longer subjecting the exercise device’s strap to their load. This setup was designed to provide realistic loads and protect the OFW from damage, an important precaution because it’s the only available unit for research and ground operations. Data is to be collected across simulated exercises and with different strap lengths, with the same conditions collected on both the OFW and the kBox Pro. RESULTS: Data collection is ongoing for the kBox and the Orion Flywheel. CONCLUSIONS: Study results will inform if the OFW and a kBox Pro device can be deemed mechanically similar. Depending on the results, additional data collection may be required to assess the user experience between the devices. A key result of this study is a mechanical characterization of the OFW device, demonstrating the load and force profile using a repeatable test method. This data will guide next steps on potential kBox Pro modifications needed to produce a comparable exercise experience to the OFW.

Exercise↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electric Grid Simulator For Human Factor Research

The developed code simulates real-time monitor and control for west area of IEEE 118-bus system. The 24-hour load profile for each bus is derived by scaling the system’s rated load in the PSSE sav file according to the California Independent System Operator’s Day-ahead load forecast for May 1, 2024. This simulator performs several critical functions: (1) Calculating time-series power flow every 4 seconds; (2) Updating and dispatching AGC signals every minute; (3) Conducting N-1 contingency analysis every 5 minutes. Additionally, the simulator can trip lines and subsequently update and dispatch AGC signals, running power flow analysis after each tripping event.

Huang, Jianqiao [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Persistent Elevated Soot Emissions Induced by Clustered Stochastic Preignition Events

Stochastic Preignition (SPI) is an abnormal combustion phenomenon that can occur in spark-ignition engines particularly under high-load operation. SPI is characterized by uncontrolled initiation of combustion prior to spark discharge, an abnormal combustion process that can lead to severe knock events and significant engine damage. SPI has been associated with fuel properties, lubricant composition, and engine design and operation. Here, in this work, a single-cylinder test engine with a dry-sump oil system was utilized to study the SPI response of E10 and E25 fuels with a range of Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP). An automated test procedure was employed, consisting of ten square-waved load profile segments, with each segment composed of 5 min of low-load operation followed by 25 min of sustained high-load operation. These tests were replicated across multiple days of testing including a lubricant triple flush between tests, and an online Fuel in Oil diagnostic measurement. Exhaust particulate emissions were continuously measured by an AVL microsoot sensor (MSS). Elevated particulate matter emissions were observed to occur concurrently with SPI events as blooms of soot. Particularly after clustered events (i.e., multiple SPI cycles occurring within 10 consecutive engine cycles), high soot emissions were observed to persist over several days of sequential operation despite daily lubricant changes, a complete warm-up procedure, and sustained low-load operation between test segments. This result implies that the particulate emissions trends may be dominated by deposit-based effects, where higher load operation is needed to alter deposition and formation processes. The observed soot blooms were also found to correspond to a reduction in the engine fueling and the fuel engine oil dilution rate despite the engine exhaust remaining at stoichiometric exhaust operation. These observations suggest that post-SPI events, pathways for lubricant migration and consumption into the combustion chamber may occur until these pathways are closed from deposit formation or ring dynamics during extended operation. These observed sooting propensity persisted with all fuels tests, but a linear correlation was observed between the summation of soot and particulate matter index (PMI) value for each fuel as well as SPI events, proving that PMI is a crucial fuel property for reducing SPI.

Splitter, Derek [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Li-ion Battery Aging with Hybrid Physics-Informed Neural Networks and Fleet-wide Data

In this work, we propose a hybrid model for Li-ion battery discharge and aging prediction that leverages fleet-wide data to predict future capacity drops.The model is built upon an hybrid approach merging physics-based and empirical equations, as well as neural network models in a recurrent neural network cell. The hybrid physics-informed neural network can predict voltage discharge cycles given the loading profile, and estimate the used capacity of the battery under random-loading conditions by tracking aging parameters connected to the residual capacity of the battery. By merging information on the battery aging parameters with existing fleet-wide aging data, the model can predict the future residual capacity of the battery that is being monitored, and therefore enable predictions of voltage discharge curves far ahead in the battery life cycle. We validated the approach using the NASA Prognostics Data Repository Battery data-set, which contains experimental data on Li-ion batteries discharged at random loading conditions in a controlled environment. The approach also allows the identification of discrepancies between the battery aging trend and the trend observed at the fleet level, so that batteries behaving differently from the rest of the fleet can be subject to closer monitoring and further testing to refine predictions.

PINN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Potential of Data Center Controls in Grid Services

The rapid proliferation of large data centers brings both challenges and opportunities for grid reliability. The data center resources and their potential flexibility have the potential to contribute resources to grid operations. Through capabilities like energy shifting and resource coordination, data centers can help reduce their net demand on the transmission network, as well as provide additional grid services to support reliable operation on the grid. While transient and long-term grid planning and operations are the scenarios that draw most attention, the quasi-steady state timeseries (QSTS) operation of data centers and grid bring interesting scenarios that can help evaluate the data center controls to aid grid services. This work is focused on modeling data centers for QSTS applications – incorporating the AI data center load profiles and building on the PNNL digital twin model for the thermal management loads to enable simulation studies to reveal the impact of data center controls on grid performance. This includes the integration of a QSTS battery and natural gas generator model to incorporate local resource impacts to the system. The simulation study is performed with a modified IEEE 24-Bus transmission system. Scenarios are focused on evaluating the data center load impacts on the transmission system and leveraging both data center and local generation controls to mitigate those impacts and provide additional grid services. The data center controls revealed the ability to contribute to two main kinds of grid services: preventing congestion on a weak grid by coordinating the data center resources with the collocated BESS and onsite generation; and the ability to help the grid operations during stressed times of operation like during a contingency. Leveraging these and other capabilities has the potential to help data centers become grid responsive assets, aiding in both their integration into the power system and grid reliability.

power grid simulation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic feasibility of borehole thermal energy storage system connected to geothermal heat pumps for seasonal heating load of two buildings in Fairbanks, Alaska

Borehole thermal energy storage (BTES) is an effective solution for managing imbalanced heating and cooling loads in cold regions. This study evaluated the long-term feasibility of a BTES system in the Fairbanks area, Alaska, through building energy modeling, resource characterization, and numerical modeling. The system was designed to store waste heat from a nearby coal power plant during summer and provide thermal energy during winter to geothermal heat pumps supplying heating loads in two buildings. Heating load profiles were modeled for the buildings using EnergyPlus, and the results indicated the annual heating load was 5.6 times greater than the cooling load. 40 borehole heat exchangers were pre-designed approximately 100 m away from the two buildings in terms of land availability and regulatorily optimized depth. The 20-year performance of the designed BTES system under two operational scenarios—one with a 5-year preheating period and one without—was numerically modeled using subsurface temperature and properties characterized through the literature review and thermal response tests. Both scenarios demonstrated that the BTES has the capacity to fully cover the heating loads in the two buildings throughout the 20-year lifetime. Production temperatures at central wells were 33 % higher on average than at outer wells in both scenarios. The 5-year preheating period increased subsurface and extraction temperatures, and correspondingly annual average and total thermal energy production was higher for 8 years than in the scenario without the preheating period. These results highlight the long-term reliability and sustainability of the BTES system in meeting heating demands over its lifetime, with the preheating period offering potential performance improvements. Implementing the BTES system in cold regions with high heating demand, such as Fairbanks, Alaska, could provide a long-term, sustainable energy solution for managing imbalanced heating and cooling loads.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1987

DACS II - A distributed thermal/mechanical loads data acquisition and control system

A distributed data acquisition and control system has been developed for the NASA Flight Loads Research Facility. The DACS II system is composed of seven computer systems and four array processors configured as a main computer system, three satellite computer systems, and 13 analog input/output systems interconnected through three independent data networks. Up to three independent heating and loading tests can be run concurrently on different test articles or the entire system can be used on a single large test such as a full scale hypersonic aircraft. Thermal tests can include up to 512 independent adaptive closed loop control channels. The control system can apply up to 20 MW of heating to a test specimen while simultaneously applying independent mechanical loads. Each thermal control loop is capable of heating a structure at rates of up to 150 F per second over a temperature range of -300 to +2500 F. Up to 64 independent mechanical load profiles can be commanded along with thermal control. Up to 1280 analog inputs monitor temperature, load, displacement and strain on the test specimens with real time data displayed on up to 15 terminals as color plots and tabular data displays. System setup and operation is accomplished with interactive menu-driver displays with extensive facilities to assist the users in all phases of system operation.

Zamanzadeh, Behzad↗
NASA NTRS1994

Modeling and life prediction methodology for Titanium Matrix Composites subjected to mission profiles

Titanium matrix composites (TMC) are being evaluated as structural materials for elevated temperature applications in future generation hypersonic vehicles. In such applications, TMC components are subjected to complex thermomechanical loading profiles at various elevated temperatures. Therefore, thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) testing, using a simulated mission profile, is essential for evaluation and development of life prediction methodologies. The objective of the research presented in this paper was to evaluate the TMF response of the (0/90)2s SCS-6/Timetal-21S subjected to a generic hypersonic flight profile and its portions with a temperature ranging from -130 C to 816 C. It was found that the composite modulus, prior to rapid degradation, had consistent values for all the profiles tested. A micromechanics based analysis was used to predict the stress-strain response of the laminate and of the constituents in each ply during thermomechanical loading conditions by using only constituent properties as input. The fiber was modeled as elastic with transverse orthotropic and temperature dependent properties. The matrix was modeled using a thermoviscoplastic constitutive relation. In the analysis, the composite modulus degradation was assumed to result from matrix cracking and was modeled by reducing the matrix modulus. Fatigue lives of the composite subjected to the complex generic hypersonic flight profile were well correlated using the predicted stress in 0 degree fibers.

Mirdamadi, M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Scenario Documentation: Chiller Replacement

Building on a 3-year effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock (TM) and ComStock (TM) models, this work produces national datasets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual energy consumption (at a subhourly resolution) of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency and demand flexibility end-use load shapes that cover high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to various "what-if" scenarios that can be applied to buildings. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building (or collection of buildings) and a building with an energy efficiency or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step, as well as annual aggregations. This report describes the modeling methodology for a single end-use savings shape measure - chiller replacement - and briefly introduces key results. The full public dataset can be accessed on the ComStock (TM) data lake or via the Data Viewer at comstock.nrel.gov. The public data set enables users to create custom aggregations of results for their use case (e.g., filter to a specific county).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Scenario Documentation: Standard Performance Heat Pump Rooftop Unit With New Windows

Building on a 3-year effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock (TM) and ComStock (TM) models, this work produces national datasets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual energy consumption (at subhourly resolution) of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency and demand flexibility end-use load shapes that cover high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to various "what-if" scenarios that can be applied to buildings. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building (or collection of buildings) and a building with an energy efficiency or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step, as well as annual aggregations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2000

Reliability Constrained Priority Load Shedding for Aerospace Power System Automation

The need for improving load shedding on board the space station is one of the goals of aerospace power system automation. To accelerate the optimum load-shedding functions, several constraints must be involved. These constraints include congestion margin determined by weighted probability contingency, component/system reliability index, generation rescheduling. The impact of different faults and indices for computing reliability were defined before optimization. The optimum load schedule is done based on priority, value and location of loads. An optimization strategy capable of handling discrete decision making, such as Everett optimization, is proposed. We extended Everett method to handle expected congestion margin and reliability index as constraints. To make it effective for real time load dispatch process, a rule-based scheme is presented in the optimization method. It assists in selecting which feeder load to be shed, the location of the load, the value, priority of the load and cost benefit analysis of the load profile is included in the scheme. The scheme is tested using a benchmark NASA system consisting of generators, loads and network.

Momoh, James A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Advanced Stirling Convertor Dual Convertor Controller Testing at NASA Glenn Research Center in the Radioisotope Power Systems System Integration Laboratory

NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) developed a non-nuclear representation of a Radioisotope Power System (RPS) consisting of a pair of Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASC), a Dual Convertor Controller (DCC) EM (engineering model) 2 & 3, and associated support equipment, which were tested in the Radioisotope Power Systems System Integration Laboratory (RSIL). The DCC was designed by the Johns Hopkins University/Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL) to actively control a pair of Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASC). The first phase of testing included a Dual Advanced Stirling Convertor Simulator (DASCS) which was developed by JHU/APL and simulates the operation and electrical behavior of a pair of ASC's in real time via a combination of hardware and software. RSIL provides insight into the electrical interactions between a representative radioisotope power generator, its associated control schemes, and realistic electric system loads. The first phase of integration testing included the following spacecraft bus configurations: capacitive, battery, and supercapacitor. A load profile, created based on data from several missions, tested the RPS and RSIL ability to maintain operation during load demands above and below the power provided by the RPS. The integration testing also confirmed the DCC's ability to disconnect from the spacecraft when the bus voltage dipped below 22 V or exceeded 36 V. Once operation was verified with the DASCS, the tests were repeated with actual operating ASC's. The goal of this integration testing was to verify operation of the DCC when connected to a spacecraft and to verify the functionality of the newly designed RSIL. The results of these tests are presented in this paper.

systems integration↗
DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Assessment of Data Center Load Demand Powered by Small Modular Reactors and Distributed Energy Resources

The rapid increase in data center energy demand, driven by AI and large-scale data processing, poses significant challenges to global energy infrastructure. Data centers require substantial and reliable energy for continuous operations and high-performance computing. Current electrical grids face issues such as transmission bottlenecks and aging infrastructure, making it difficult to meet these demands. Integrating inverter-based-resources (IBRs) like solar and wind presents both opportunities and challenges due to their intermittent nature. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) offer a promising solution with their enhanced safety, modularity, reliability, and scalability, providing consistent base load power ideal for data center operations. This study presents a comprehensive techno-economic assessment of powering data center load demand using a combination of SMRs and IBRs with grid-connected and islanded mode. This study utilized Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) HPC data center hourly load profiles and Xendee microgrid optimization platform to conduct the analysis. In this configuration, SMRs serves as the primary base load power source, consistently providing a steady supply of electricity necessary to meet the minimum load demand of the data center with support from the IBRs. Key performance indicators such as Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), Net Present Value (NPV) has been calculated to assess the economic feasibility. The findings from this research will underscore the strategic benefits of integrating SMR plant with DERs – particularly for critical infrastructure load such as data centers.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2015

Advanced Stirling Convertor Dual Convertor Controller Testing at NASA Glenn Research Center in the Radioisotope Power Systems System Integration Laboratory

NASA Glenn Research Center developed a nonnuclear representation of a Radioisotope Power System (RPS) consisting of a pair of Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs), Dual Convertor Controller (DCC) EMs (engineering models) 2 and 3, and associated support equipment, which were tested in the Radioisotope Power Systems System Integration Laboratory (RSIL). The DCC was designed by the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL) to actively control a pair of ASCs. The first phase of testing included a Dual Advanced Stirling Convertor Simulator (DASCS), which was developed by JHU/APL and simulates the operation and electrical behavior of a pair of ASCs in real time via a combination of hardware and software. RSIL provides insight into the electrical interactions between a representative radioisotope power generator, its associated control schemes, and realistic electric system loads. The first phase of integration testing included the following spacecraft bus configurations: capacitive, battery, and super-capacitor. A load profile, created based on data from several missions, tested the RPS's and RSIL's ability to maintain operation during load demands above and below the power provided by the RPS. The integration testing also confirmed the DCC's ability to disconnect from the spacecraft when the bus voltage dipped below 22 volts or exceeded 36 volts. Once operation was verified with the DASCS, the tests were repeated with actual operating ASCs. The goal of this integration testing was to verify operation of the DCC when connected to a spacecraft and to verify the functionality of the newly designed RSIL. The results of these tests are presented in this paper.

Controllers↗
DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗