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NASA NTRS2010

NextGen Future Safety Assessment Game

The successful implementation of the next generation infrastructure systems requires solid understanding of their technical, social, political and economic aspects along with their interactions. The lack of historical data that relate to the long-term planning of complex systems introduces unique challenges for decision makers and involved stakeholders which in turn result in unsustainable systems. Also, the need to understand the infrastructure at the societal level and capture the interaction between multiple stakeholders becomes important. This paper proposes a methodology in order to develop a holistic approach aiming to provide an alternative subject-matter expert (SME) elicitation and data collection method for future sociotechnical systems. The methodology is adapted to Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) decision making environment in order to demonstrate the benefits of this holistic approach.

Ancel, Ersin↗

NASA NTRS2011

NextGen Future Safety Assessment Game

Ancel, Ersin↗

NASA NTRS2012

NASA Products to Enhance Energy Utility Load Forecasting

Existing energy load forecasting tools rely upon historical load and forecasted weather to predict load within energy company service areas. The shortcomings of load forecasts are often the result of weather forecasts that are not at a fine enough spatial or temporal resolution to capture local-scale weather events. This project aims to improve the performance of load forecasting tools through the integration of high-resolution, weather-related NASA Earth Science Data, such as temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. Three companies are participating in operational testing one natural gas company, and two electric providers. Operational results comparing load forecasts with and without NASA weather forecasts have been generated since March 2010. We have worked with end users at the three companies to refine selection of weather forecast information and optimize load forecast model performance. The project will conclude in 2012 with transitioning documented improvements from the inclusion of NASA forecasts for sustained use by energy utilities nationwide in a variety of load forecasting tools. In addition, Battelle has consulted with energy companies nationwide to document their information needs for long-term planning, in light of climate change and regulatory impacts.

Lough, G.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Climate Variability and Impact at NASA's Marshal Space Flight Center

Climate analysis for the Southeast U. S. has indicated that inland regions have experienced an average temperature increase of 2F since 1970. This trend is generally characterized by warmer winters with an indication of increased precipitation in the Fall season. Extended periods of limited rainfall in the Spring and Summer periods have had greater areal coverage and, at other times the number of precipitation events has been increasing. Climate model projections for the next 10-70 years indicate warmer temperatures for the Southeast U.S., particularly in the Spring and Summer, with some indication of more extremes in temperature and precipitation as shown in the table below. The realization of these types of regional climate changes in the form of extended heat waves and droughts and their subsequent stress on facilities, infrastructure, and workforce could have substantial impact on the activities and functions of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama. This presentation will present the results of an examination of the 100 year temperature and precipitation record for MSFC. Local warming has cause an increase in daily maximum and minimum temperatures by nearly 3F, with a substantial increase in the number of maximum temperatures exceeding 90F and a decrease in the number of days with minimum temperatures below freezing. These trends have substantial impact of the number of heating / cooling degree days for the area. Yearly precipitation totals are inversely correlated with the change in mean temperature and the frequency of heavy rain events has remain consistent with the changes in yearly totals. An extended heat wave index was developed which shows an increase in frequency of heat waves over the last 35 years and a subsequent reduction in precipitation during the heat waves. This trend will contribute to more intense drought conditions over the northern Alabama region, increasing the potential of destructive wildfires in and around the Center. MSFC has begun using this climate change information to adapt short-term and long-term plans for Center operations.

Smoot, James L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Neutrino Physics from the Cosmic Microwave Background and Large Scale Structure

This is a report on the status and prospects of the quantification of neutrino properties through the cosmological neutrino background for the Cosmic Frontier of the Division of Particles and Fields Community Summer Study long-term planning exercise. Experiments planned and underway are prepared to study the cosmological neutrino background in detail via its influence on distance-redshift relations and the growth of structure. The program for the next decade described in this document, including upcoming spectroscopic galaxy surveys eBOSS and DESI and a new Stage-IV CMB polarization experiment CMB-S4, will achieve sigma (sigma*mass(sub v)= 16 meV and sigma (Effective number of neutrino species) = 0.020. Such a mass measurement will produce a high significance detection of non-zero sigma*mass(sub v), whose lower bound derived from atmospheric and solar neutrino oscillation data is about 58 meV. If neutrinos have a minimal normal mass hierarchy, this measurement will definitively rule out the inverted neutrino mass hierarchy, shedding light on one of the most puzzling aspects of the Standard Model of particle physics - the origin of mass. This precise a measurement of Neff will allow for high sensitivity to any light and dark degrees of freedom produced in the big bang and a precision test of the standard cosmological model prediction that the effective number of neutrino species = 3.046.

Neutrinos↗

NASA NTRS2009

Managing PV Power on Mars - MER Rovers

The MER Rovers have recently completed over 5 years of operation! This is a remarkable demonstration of the capabilities of PV power on the Martian surface. The extended mission required the development of an efficient process to predict the power available to the rovers on a day-to-day basis. The performance of the MER solar arrays is quite unlike that of any other Space array and perhaps more akin to Terrestrial PV operation, although even severe by that comparison. The impact of unpredictable factors, such as atmospheric conditions and dust accumulation (and removal) on the panels limits the accurate prediction of array power to short time spans. Based on the above, it is clear that long term power predictions are not sufficiently accurate to allow for detailed long term planning. Instead, the power assessment is essentially a daily activity, effectively resetting the boundary points for the overall predictive power model. A typical analysis begins with the importing of the telemetry from each rover's previous day's power subsystem activities. This includes the array power generated, battery state-of-charge, rover power loads, and rover orientation, all as functions of time. The predicted performance for that day is compared to the actual performance to identify the extent of any differences. The model is then corrected for these changes. Details of JPL's MER power analysis procedure are presented, including the description of steps needed to provide the final prediction for the mission planners. A dust cleaning event of the solar array is also highlighted to illustrate the impact of Martian weather on solar array performance

Mars dust↗

NASA NTRS2015

Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP)

Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP) is a method being developed by the Advanced Concepts Office, at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. The TAPP method expands on current technology assessment methods by incorporating the technological structure underlying technology development, e.g., organizational structures and resources, institutional policy and strategy, and the factors that motivate technological change. This paper discusses the methods ACO is currently developing to better perform technology assessments while taking into consideration Strategic Alignment, Technology Forecasting, and Long Term Planning.

Funaro, Gregory V.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) Technology Maturation

The Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) development effort was initiated by NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) with contractor Sunpower Inc. to develop high efficiency thermal-to-electric power conversion technology for NASA Radioisotope Power Systems. Early successful performance demonstrations led to the expansion of the project as well as adoption of the technology by the Department of Energy (DOE) and system integration contractor Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company as part of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) flight project. The ASRG integrates a pair of ASCs to convert the heat from a pair of General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) modules into electrical power. The expanded NASA ASC effort included development of several generations of ASC prototypes or Engineering Units to help prepare the ASC technology and Sunpower for flight implementation. Sunpower later had two parallel contracts allowing the last of the NASA Engineering Units called ASC-E3 to serve as pathfinders for the ASC-F flight convertors being built for DOE. The ASC-E3 convertors utilized the ASC-F flight specifications and were built using the ASC-F design and process documentation. Shortly after the first ASC-F Pair achieved initial operation, due to budget constraints, the DOE ASRG flight development contract was terminated. NASA continues to invest in the development of Stirling RPS technology including continued production of the ASC-E3 convertors, seven of which have been delivered with one additional unit in production. Starting in FY2015, Stirling Convertor Technology Maturation has been reorganized as an element of the RPS Stirling Cycle Technology Development (SCTD) Project and long-term plans for continued Stirling technology advancement are in reformulation. This paper provides a status on the ASC project, an overview of advancements made in the design and production of the ASC at Sunpower, and a summary of acceptance tests, reliability tests, and tactical tests at NASA GRC that demonstrate the capabilities of the ASC.

radioisotope↗

NASA NTRS2016

Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) Technology Maturation

The Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) development effort was initiated by NASA Glenn Research Center with contractor Sunpower, Inc., to develop high-efficiency thermal-to-electric power conversion technology for NASA Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs). Early successful performance demonstrations led to the expansion of the project as well as adoption of the technology by the Department of Energy (DOE) and system integration contractor Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company as part of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) flight project. The ASRG integrates a pair of ASCs to convert the heat from a pair of General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) modules into electrical power. The expanded NASA ASC effort included development of several generations of ASC prototypes or engineering units to help prepare the ASC technology and Sunpower for flight implementation. Sunpower later had two parallel contracts allowing the last of the NASA engineering units called ASC-E3 to serve as pathfinders for the ASC-F flight convertors being built for DOE. The ASC-E3 convertors utilized the ASC-F flight specifications and were built using the ASC-F design and process documentation. Shortly after the first ASC-F pair achieved initial operation, due to budget constraints, the DOE ASRG flight development contract was terminated. NASA continues to invest in the development of Stirling RPS technology including continued production of the ASC-E3 convertors, seven of which have been delivered with one additional unit in production. Starting in fiscal year 2015, Stirling Convertor Technology Maturation has been reorganized as an element of the RPS Stirling Cycle Technology Development (SCTD) Project and long-term plans for continued Stirling technology advancement are in reformulation. This paper provides a status on the ASC project, an overview of advancements made in the design and production of the ASC at Sunpower, and a summary of acceptance tests, reliability tests, and tactical tests at NASA Glenn that demonstrate the capabilities of the ASC.

Stirling cycle↗

NASA NTRS2016

GC23G-1310: Investigation Into the Effects of Climate Variability and Land Cover Change on the Hydrologic System of the Lower Mekong Basin

The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) is an economically and ecologically important region that experiences hydrologic hazards such as floods and droughts, which can directly affect human well-being and limit economic growth and development. To effectively develop long-term plans for addressing hydrologic hazards, the regional hydrological response to climate variability and land cover change needs to be evaluated. This research aims to investigate how climate variability, specifically variations in the precipitation regime, and land cover change will affect hydrologic parameters both spatially and temporally within the LMB. The research goal is achieved by (1) modeling land cover change for a baseline land cover change scenario as well as changes in land cover with increases in forest or agriculture and (2) using projected climate variables and modeled land cover data as inputs into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to simulate the changes to the hydrologic system. The VIC model outputs were analyzed against historic values to understand the relative contribution of climate variability and land cover to change, where these changes occur, and to what degree these changes affect the hydrology. This study found that the LMB hydrologic system is more sensitive to climate variability than land cover change. On average, climate variability was found to increase discharge and evapotranspiration (ET) while decreasing water storage. The change in land cover show that increasing forest area will slightly decrease discharge and increase ET while increasing agriculture area increases discharge and decreases ET. These findings will help the LMB by supporting individual country policy to plan for future hydrologic changes as well as policy for the basin as a whole.

Hydrology↗

NASA NTRS2017

NASA Earth Observations Informing Energy Management Decision Making

The Energy Sector is experiencing increasing impacts from severe weather and shifting climatic trends, as well as facing a changing political climate, adding uncertainty for stakeholders as they make short- and long-term planning investments. Climate changes such as prolonged extreme heat and drought (leading to wildfire spread, for example), sea level rise, and extreme storms are changing the ways that utilities operate. Energy infrastructure located in coastal or flood-prone areas faces inundation risks, such as damage to energy facilities. The use of renewable energy resources is increasing, requiring more information about their intermittency and spatial patterns. In light of these challenges, public and private stakeholders have collaborated to identify potential data sources, tools, and programmatic ideas. For example, utilities across the country are using cutting-edge technology and data to plan for and adapt to these changes. In the Federal Government, NASA has invested in preliminary work to identify needs and opportunities for satellite data in energy sector application, and the Department of Energy has similarly brought together stakeholders to understand the landscape of climate vulnerability and resilience for utilities and others. However, have these efforts improved community-scale resilience and adaptation efforts? Further, some communities are more vulnerable to climate change and infrastructure impacts than others. This session has two goals. First, panelists seek to share existing and ongoing efforts related to energy management. Second, the session seeks to engage with attendees via group knowledge exchange to connect national energy management efforts to local practice for increased community resilience.

Eckman, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Open Data Repository's Data Publisher

We have quickly gathered a diverse set of databases that have significant activity. Researchers are using them on a daily basis from collection through all phases of research. Focus on: (1) Linked data and semantic web integration are fundamental to our long term plans. (2) Citation system is critical before our first full release. Snapshot-based citation generation for data sets or objects. As we expand our feature set, expect the system will: (1) Provide a very high level of provenance for any data housed in the software. (2) Make data management beneficial to the researcher throughout the research process. (3) Create living archives that allow citable snapshots of data and summaries of the changes since the snapshot was created.

Stone, N.↗

NASA NTRS2018

System-of-Systems Tools for the Analysis of Technological Choices in Space Propulsion

Difficulties in space mission architecture design arise from many factors. Performance, cost, and risk constraints become less obvious due to complex interactions between the systems involved in the mission; decisions regarding long-term goals can heavily impact technological choices for short-term parts of the mission, while conversely decisions in the near future will impact the whole flexibility of long-term plans. Furthermore, the space community is broadening its borders, and space agencies from different countries are collaborating with industry and commercial partners towards large-scale endeavors. This paradigm shift is prompting the development of non-traditional approaches to the design of space missions. This paper reports the results of the first year of a continuing collaboration of the authors to develop and demonstrate System-of-System engineering methodologies for the deep analysis of dependencies and synthesis of robust architectures in exploration mission contexts. We present the procedure that we followed to develop and apply our methodology, obstacles found, steps taken to improve the methods based on the needs of experts and decision makers, required data for the analysis, and results produced by our holistic analysis. In particular, we focus on the analysis of technological choices for space propulsion for a generic cislunar mission, including both complex interactions between subsystems in different type of propulsion and availability of different providers. We identify critical systems and sets of systems based on cascading effects of performance degradation, assessment of the robustness of different designs in the operational domain, and simultaneous analysis of schedule dependencies between the constituent systems.

Guariniello, Cesare↗

NASA NTRS2020

Communications with Curiosity during solar conjunction

This study examines the methodology for operating and communicating with NASA's Curiosity Rover (MSL) during the 2019 solar conjunction. For MSL, solar conjunction occurs when the viewing angle between the Sun and Mars from Earth's perspective falls below 3 degrees, which occurs roughly every two Earth years and lasts for about two weeks. This presents a challenge for engineers operating a vehicle on Mars because the degraded signal to noise ratio disrupts data flow between Earth and the spacecraft. As a result, operators designate a command moratorium in which no commands are sent to the rover and instead design long-term plans that are uplinked weeks in advance (rather than the nominal case of daily uplinks). Coordinating communications with the rover leading up to and following conjunction requires negotiations with several orbiters, another lander, and the Deep Space Network (DSN) each with their own set of constraints. It is the Strategic Comm Planning T coordination, which acts as a baseline for the conjunction Comm team faced additional complications such as the arrival of two new spacecraft at Mars - Roscosmos ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO).

Laubach, Sharon↗

NASA NTRS2018

NASA's Advanced Extra-Vehicular Activity Space Suit Pressure Garment 2018 Status and Development Plan

This paper presents both near-term and long-term NASA Advanced Extra-vehicular Activity (EVA) Pressure Garment development efforts. The near-term plan discusses the development of pressure garment components for the first design iteration of the International Space Station exploration space suit demonstration configuration, termed the xEMU Demo. The xEMU Demo effort is targeting a 2023-2025 flight demonstration timeframe. The Fiscal Year 2018 (FY18) tasks focus on either the initiation or maturation of component design, depending on the state of development of the components, and the assembly of a suit configuration, termed Z-2.5, that will be used to evaluate changes to the upper torso geometry in a Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) test series. The geometry changes, which are being driven by the need to reduce the front-to-back dimension of the advanced extravehicular mobility unit, diverge from a proven shape, such as that of the Mark III Space Suit Technology Demonstrator. The 2018 efforts culminate in the Z-2.5 NBL test. The lessons learned from the Z-2.5 NBL test will inform the xEMU Demo design as the effort moves toward design verification testing and preliminary and critical design reviews. The long-term development plan looks to surface exploration and operations. Technology and knowledge gaps exist between the xEMU Demo configuration; a lunar surface capability, xEMU; and Mars surface suit, mEMU. The development plan takes into account both the priority and the anticipated development duration for each particular technology. The long-term development plan will be updated as risks are mitigated and gaps are closed, but its overarching structure will remain intact.

space suit↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Comprehensive Plan for the Long-Term Calibration and Validation of Oceanic Biogeochemical Satellite Data

The primary objective of this planning document is to establish a long-term capability and validating oceanic biogeochemical satellite data. It is a pragmatic solution to a practical problem based primarily o the lessons learned from prior satellite missions. All of the plan's elements are seen to be interdependent, so a horizontal organizational scheme is anticipated wherein the overall leadership comes from the NASA Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry (OBB) Program Manager and the entire enterprise is split into two components of equal sature: calibration and validation plus satellite data processing. The detailed elements of the activity are based on the basic tasks of the two main components plus the current objectives of the Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Roadmap. The former is distinguished by an internal core set of responsibilities and the latter is facilitated through an external connecting-core ring of competed or contracted activities. The core elements for the calibration and validation component include a) publish protocols and performance metrics; b) verify uncertainty budgets; c) manage the development and evaluation of instrumentation; and d) coordinate international partnerships. The core elements for the satellite data processing component are e) process and reprocess multisensor data; f) acquire, distribute, and archive data products; and g) implement new data products. Both components have shared responsibilities for initializing and temporally monitoring satellite calibration. Connecting-core elements include (but are not restricted to) atmospheric correction and characterization, standards and traceability, instrument and analysis round robins, field campaigns and vicarious calibration sites, in situ database, bio-optical algorithm (and product) validation, satellite characterization and vicarious calibration, and image processing software. The plan also includes an accountability process, creating a Calibration and Validation Team (to help manage the activity), and a discussion of issues associated with the plan's scientific focus.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Study plan to identify long term national telecommunications need and priorities applying Delphi techniques (handbook)

A handbook that explains the basic Delphi methodology and discusses modified Delphi techniques is presented. The selection of communications experts to participate in a study, the construction of questionnaires on potential communications developments, and requisite technology is treated. No two modified Delphi studies were the same, which reflects the flexibility and adaptability of the technique. Each study must be specifically tailored to a particular case, and consists of seeking a consensus of opinion among experts about a particular subject and attendant conditions that may prevail in the future.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Framework for the Cross-Sectoral Integration of Multi-Model Impact Projections: Land Use Decisions Under Climate Impacts Uncertainties

Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impactmodel setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making

farmlands↗