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At least 73 records · Page 4

Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Microgrids are an increasingly popular solution to provide energy resilience in response to increasing grid dependency and the growing impacts of climate change on grid operations. However, existing microgrid models do not currently consider the uncertain and long-term impacts of climate change when determining a set of design and operational decisions to minimize long-term costs or meet a resilience threshold. In this paper, we develop a novel scenario generation method that accounts for the uncertain effects of (i) climate change on variable renewable energy availability, (ii) extreme heat events on site load, and (iii) population and electrification trends on load growth. Additionally, we develop a two-stage stochastic programming extension of an existing microgrid design and dispatch optimization model to obtain uncertainty-informed and climate-resilient energy system decisions that minimizes long-term costs. Use of sample average approximation to validate our two case studies illustrates that the proposed methodology produces high-quality solutions that add resilience to systems with existing backup generation while reducing expected long-term costs.

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An interregional optimization approach for time series aggregation in continent-scale electricity system models

Modeling electric power systems with high shares of weather-dependent resources requires tradeoffs between temporal, spatial, and operational resolution. Many studies perform time series aggregation using clustering algorithms to reduce the temporal dimension, but when modeling continent-scale electricity systems that are large enough to contain multiple independent weather systems, this approach requires large numbers of representative periods to minimize errors in regional wind and solar capacity factors. Here, a new optimization-based approach for representative period selection and weighting is introduced that minimizes regional errors in average renewable capacity factors and electricity demand. The method delivers higher regional fidelity with fewer representative periods than alternative clustering methods when applied to wind, solar, and demand profiles for the contiguous United States. When representative periods are selected from multiple weather years, the optimized method reproduces regional averages with lower error than a complete 365-day time series from any single weather year. The method identifies only representative (as opposed to outlying) periods but can be combined with an iterative "stress period" identification approach to guide efficient decision-making considering both average and high-risk weather conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

A Decomposition-Based Learn-To-Optimize Approach with Feasibility Layer Assistance for Sub-Hourly Unit Commitment

Sub-hourly unit commitment (UC) with 15-min intervals is gaining significant attention as a way to respond rapidly to the fluctuations in electricity supply and demand introduced by renewable resources. However, the increased temporal resolution and complex inter-temporal dependencies pose substantial computational challenges for traditional optimization methods. To this end, this paper explores a decomposition-based learn-to-optimize approach. Building on recent advances in machine learning, our method revisits the long- overlooked Lagrangian relaxation framework, which is a classical decomposition technique that enables tractable subproblem solving. These smaller subproblems are inherently well-suited for machine learning, as their reduced dimensionality and structural regularity allow predictive models to efficiently learn and generalize solution patterns. We thus propose a generic predictive model, which embeds Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) and Attention in the encoder-decoder structure, and integrate a rule-based feasibility layer to capture temporal dependencies, reduce training effort, and improve feasibility w.r.t. unit-level constraints. Our method has been validated on the IEEE 118-bus system, demonstrating promising performance in solving sub-hourly UC problems efficiently and feasibly.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

OSCAR-Mike: Why not ATAK?

The Office of Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence (NSDD) is evaluating methods to increase the probability that international partners will detect radioactive materials. One proposed method to accomplish this goal is to improve communications within teams operating in challenging environments. The goal of these improvements would be to enable remote monitoring of detection equipment, share data among end users in the field and subject matter experts, and integrate data from radiation detectors with other types of sensors and camera systems. Accomplishing this goal has the potential to improve the capabilities of currently deployed NSDD equipment. During FY 2021, Oak Ridge National Laboratory demonstrated some core and expanded capabilities of the Android Team Awareness Kit (ATAK), a situational awareness application developed by the US Department of Defense, to enable precision targeting, navigation, and data sharing. During FY 2022, Oak Ridge National Laboratory developed software requirements for an NSDD team awareness kit–based system. The requirements were developed by liaising with NSDD management and subject matter experts to determine NSDD’s needs and by reviewing available software and hardware solutions with US Department of Defense team awareness kit program managers and developers and radiation detection equipment vendors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Importance of Higher Fidelity Model Geometries during Optimization of Critical Experiments

PARADIGM, PARallel Approach of Differential and InteGral Measurements, is a cross-collaborative effort at Los Alamos National Laboratory between nuclear data theorists, differential and integral experimenters, as well as machine learning statisticians to tackle uncertainties in the intermediate region of 239 Pu. In essence, the idea behind PARADIGM is to remove the linear conceptualization of the nuclear data pipeline, shown in Figure 1, and replace it with a far more parallelized approach. The novel approach leverages machine learning to guide which differential measurements and integral experiments will result in the largest decrease in uncertain ties for a nuclide reaction pair in a given energy range. The concept builds off earlier work, EUCLID, which focused on the fast region of 239 Pu. The practical benefit of having evaluation, differential measurement, and integral experiment personnel in collaboration with machine learning is to represent the entire nuclear data in one snapshot. This enable large reduction in the time to deliver improved nuclear data, which using the PARADIGM approach could be done in 3 years. A general outline of PARADIGM and specific topics are available in other papers. The discussion here will pertain directly to the integral experiment design. More specifically, the process of taking a rough design and transforming it into a finalized neutronic model will be discussed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Implementation of Windowed Multipole into MCNP6.3

This work details the implementation of the Windowed MultiPole(WMP) method of generating cross sections into the monte carlo code MCNP6.3, the verification and validation performed, and potential future improvements to be implemented. Further, this work contextualizes WMP within the broader changes to how nuclear data is stored, iterated upon, and used that have been developing over the past decade.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

LLM Benchmarking with LLaMA2: Evaluating Code Development Performance Across Multiple Programming Languages

The rapid evolution of large language models (LLMs) has opened new possibilities for automating various tasks in software development. This paper evaluates the capabilities of the LLaMA 2-70B model in automating these tasks for scientific applications written in commonly used programming languages. Using representative test problems, we assess the model's capacity to generate code, documentation, and unit tests, as well as its ability to translate existing code between commonly used programming languages. Our comprehensive analysis evaluates the compilation, runtime behavior, and correctness of the generated and translated code. Additionally, we assess the quality of automatically generated code, documentation, and unit tests. Here, our results indicate that while LLaMA 2-70B frequently generates syntactically correct and functional code for simpler numerical tasks, it encounters substantial difficulties with more complex, parallelized, or distributed computations, requiring considerable manual corrections. We identify key limitations and suggest areas for future improvements to better leverage AI-driven automation in scientific computing workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

1970 Home Interview Survey

The 1970 Home Interview Survey was conducted by Twin Cities Metropolitan Council, Saint Paul. This database was used to develop mathematical models to predict future regional travel patterns, which were used to develop appropriate regional transportation policies, plans, and programs. The 1970 survey did not specifically include walking or bicycling as options in the travel diary; instead, these trips are included in a broad “other” category.

1Hz data

The transition from resistance to acceptance: Managing a marine invasive species in a changing world

Abstract Marine invasive species can transform coastal ecosystems, yet mitigating their effects can be difficult, and even impractical. Often, marine invasive species are managed at poorly matched spatial scales, and at the same time, rates of spread and establishment are increasing under climate change and can outpace resources available for population suppression. These circumstances challenge traditional conservation goals of maintaining a historic environmental state, especially for a species like the European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a formidable invader with few examples of successful long‐term removal programs. A management paradigm where decision alternatives include resisting or accepting a new ecological trajectory may be needed. We apply mathematical concepts from decision theory to develop a quantitative framework for navigating management decisions in this new resist‐accept paradigm. We develop a model of European green crab growth, removal and colonization, and we find optimal levels of removal effort that minimize both ecological change and removal cost. We establish a benchmark of colonization pressure at which green crab density becomes decoupled from a decision maker's actions, such that population control can no longer shape the invasion trajectory. For informing the decision boundary between resistance and acceptance, our results highlight that a decision maker's understanding of how removal cost scales with removal effort is more important than understanding the density‐impact relationship. We show that assuming stationary system dynamics can result in sub‐optimal levels of species removal effort, highlighting the importance of developing anticipatory management strategies by accounting for non‐stationary dynamics. Policy implications . For marine invasive species that can disperse across long distances and recolonize rapidly after removal, the focus of conservation policy should shift away from understanding how to resist change to understanding when to stop resisting change. Navigating this decision problem involves trade‐offs among competing objectives, highlighting the need for structured approaches to elicit objective weights that reflect the values of the decision maker. For natural resource managers facing possible ecosystem transformation, this decision framework can enable proactive and strategic decisions made under uncertainty in a changing world.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie

MontePy: a Python library for reading, editing, and writing MCNP input files.

The Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport code is a highly capable and accurate code with a long legacy. MCNP uses the Monte Carlo simulation process to simulate the path of particles (e.g., neutrons, photons, charged particles, etc.), and their interaction with materials. It is widely used in nuclear engineering, high-energy physics, and other fields. Its origins in the mid-twentieth century predate many modern software conventions. MCNP users provide an input file to MCNP, which it then uses to create an internal representation of the simulation problem. These input files originally had to be stored as punchcard decks, and the user manual still uses the terminology of cards and decks, despite moving beyond punchcards. MCNP predates nearly all modern human readable markup or data serialization languages, such as the extensible Markup Language (XML), the Standard Generalized Markup Language (SGML), YAML (YAML Ain’t Markup Language), and Javascript Object Notation (JSON). Due to this, MCNP uses an entirely custom defined syntax language for its input, making off-the-shelf libraries for XML, YAML, and JSON impossible to use for scripting various operations on MCNP input files (Kulesza et al., 2022).

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

MCNP ® Code Version 6.3.1 Theory & User Manual

This document acts as a repository of knowledge for the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) transport computer code. It is maintained alongside the source code and attempts to introduce new users and re-familiarize experienced users with the theory and practices of using the MCNP code for the wide range of particle transport analyses that it is appropriate for. The latest version of the MCNP code, version 6.3.1, provides the Monte Carlo particle transport community with the latest feature developments and bug fixes in the MCNP code. The MCNP code version 6.0 and later is also known as the MCNP6 code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

High Fidelity Digital Twins for BWRX-300 Critical Systems

This project developed and demonstrated digital-twin technology for advanced nuclear systems under the ARPA-E GEMINA program, with a focus on the BWRX-300 small modular reactor. The primary objective was to reduce operation and maintenance (O&M) costs through predictive health monitoring and model-based fault detection. The project combined MIT’s high-fidelity physics models and machine-learning and digital-twin algorithms, and GE Hitachi’s digital-twin algorithms and operational expertise to build physics-based digital twins capable of real-time system monitoring and maintenance scheduling.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

The VTK-m User's Guide (V. 2.2)

High-performance computing relies on ever finer threading. Advances in processor technology include ever greater numbers of cores, hyperthreading, accelerators with integrated blocks of cores, and special vectorized instructions, all of which require more software parallelism to achieve peak performance. Traditional visualization solutions cannot support this extreme level of concurrency. Extreme scale systems require a new programming model and a fundamental change in how we design algorithms. To address these issues we created VTK-m: the visualization toolkit for multi-/many-core architectures. VTK-m supports a number of algorithms and the ability to design further algorithms through a top-down design with an emphasis on extreme parallelism. VTK-m also provides support for finding and building links across topologies, making it possible to perform operations that determine manifold surfaces, interpolate generated values, and find adjacencies. Although VTK-m provides a simplified high-level interface for programming, its template-based code removes the overhead of abstraction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Impact of Higher Fidelity Design Iterations on Critical System Criteria

Nuclear criticality experiments are effective at informing the performance of nuclear data libraries across many applications. This work explores the implications of refining critical experiment MCNP models from their low fidelity optimization phase to penultimate neutronic models. Specifically, this work is focused on two series of plutonium fueled experiments funded through internal programs at Los Alamos National Laboratory building off previous efforts under the EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data) collaboration. Thales, the first of the two collaborations, is a fast spectrum Ta-reflected plutonium experiment to support operations at PF-4. The second experiment are twin configurations designed to target the intermediate energy cross sections in 239 Pu. Motivation for this experiment stems from the PARallel Approach of Differential and InteGral Measurements (PARADIGM) collaboration which hopes to achieve a significant reduction in 239 Pu cross section uncertainties in the intermediate region.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Optimal Electrification Using Renewable Energies: Microgrid Installation Model with Combined Mixture k-Means Clustering Algorithm, Mixed Integer Linear Programming, and Onsset Method

Optimal planning and design of microgrids are priorities in the electrification of off-grid areas. Indeed, in one of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 7), the UN recommends universal access to electricity for all at the lowest cost. Several optimization methods with different strategies have been proposed in the literature as ways to achieve this goal. This paper proposes a microgrid installation and planning model based on a combination of several techniques. The programming language Python 3.10 was used in conjunction with machine learning techniques such as unsupervised learning based on K-means clustering and deterministic optimization methods based on mixed linear programming. These methods were complemented by the open-source spatial method for optimal electrification planning: onsset. Four levels of study were carried out. The first level consisted of simulating the model obtained with a cluster, which is considered based on the elbow and k-means clustering method as a case study. The second level involved sizing the microgrid with a capacity of 40 kW and optimizing all the resources available on site. The example of the different resources in the Togo case was considered. At the third level, the work consisted of proposing an optimal connection model for the microgrid based on voltage stability constraints and considering, above all, the capacity limit of the source substation. Finally, the fourth level involved a planning study of electrification strategies based mainly on microgrids according to the study scenario. The results of the first level of study enabled us to obtain an optimal location for the centroid of the cluster under consideration, according to the different load positions of this cluster. Then, the results of the second level of study were used to highlight the optimal resources obtained and proposed by the optimization model formulated based on the various technology costs, such as investment, maintenance, and operating costs, which were based on the technical limits of the various technologies. In these results, solar systems account for 80% of the maximum load considered, compared to 7.5% for wind systems and 12.5% for battery systems. Next, an optimal microgrid connection model was proposed based on the constraints of a voltage stability limit estimated to be 10% of the maximum voltage drop. The results obtained for the third level of study enabled us to present selective results for load nodes in relation to the source station node. Finally, the last results made it possible to plan electrification using different network technologies and systems in the short and long term. The case study of Togo was taken into account. The various results obtained from the different techniques provide the necessary leads for a feasibility study for optimal electrification of off-grid areas using microgrid systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION