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NASA NTRS1985

Use of observational and model-derived fields and regime model output statistics in mesoscale forecasting

Various empirical and statistical weather-forecasting studies which utilize stratification by weather regime are described. Objective classification was used to determine weather regime in some studies. In other cases the weather pattern was determined on the basis of a parameter representing the physical and dynamical processes relevant to the anticipated mesoscale phenomena, such as low level moisture convergence and convective precipitation, or the Froude number and the occurrence of cold-air damming. For mesoscale phenomena already in existence, new forecasting techniques were developed. The use of cloud models in operational forecasting is discussed. Models to calculate the spatial scales of forcings and resultant response for mesoscale systems are presented. The use of these models to represent the climatologically most prevalent systems, and to perform case-by-case simulations is reviewed. Operational implementation of mesoscale data into weather forecasts, using both actual simulation output and method-output statistics is discussed.

Forbes, G. S.↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Flow of Plasma in the Solar-Terrestrial Environment

The overall goal of our NASA theory research is to trace the flow of mass, momentum, and energy through the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere system taking into account the coupling, time delays, and feedback mechanisms that are characteristic of the system. Our approach is to model the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere (M-I-A) system in a self-consistent quantitative manner using unique global models that allow us to study the coupling between the different regions on a range of spatial and temporal scales. The uniqueness of our global models stems from their high spatial and temporal resolutions, the physical processes included, and the numerical techniques employed. Currently, we have time-dependent global models of the ionosphere, thermosphere, polar wind, plasmasphere, and electrodynamics. It is now becoming clear that a significant fraction of the flow of mass, momentum, and energy in the M-I-A system occurs on relatively small spatial scales. Therefore, an important aspect of our NASA Theory program concerns the effect that mesoscale (100-l000 km) density structures have on the macroscopic flows in the ionosphere, thermosphere, and polar wind. The structures can be created either by structured magnetospheric inputs (i.e., structured electric field, precipitation, or Birkeland current patterns) or by time variations of these inputs due to geomagnetic storms and substorms. Some of the mesoscale structures of interest include sun-aligned polar cap arcs, propagating plasma patches, traveling convection vortices, subauroral ion drift (SAID) channels, gravity waves, and the polar hole.

Schunk, Robert W.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Identifying Meteorological Influences on Marine Low Cloud Mesoscale Morphology Using Satellite Classifications

Marine low cloud mesoscale morphology in the southeastern Pacific Ocean is analyzed using a large dataset of machine-learning generated classifications spanning three years. Meteorological variables and cloud properties are composited 10by mesoscale cloud type, showing distinct meteorological regimes of marine low cloud organization from the tropics to the midlatitudes. The presentation of mesoscale cellular convection, with respect to geographic distribution, boundary layer structure, and large-scale environmental conditions, agrees with prior knowledge. Two tropical and subtropical cumuliform boundary layer regimes, suppressed cumulus and clustered cumulus, are studied in detail. The patterns in precipitation, circulation, column water vapor, and cloudiness are consistent with the representation of marine shallow mesoscale convective 15 self-aggregation by large eddy simulations of the boundary layer. Although they occur under similar large-scale conditions, the suppressed and clustered low cloud types are found to be well-separated by variables associated with low-level mesoscale circulation, with surface wind divergence being the clearest discriminator between them, whether reanalysis or satellite observations are used. Clustered regimes are associated with surface convergence and suppressed regimes are associated with surface divergence.

Johannes Mohrmann↗

NASA NTRS1972

The use of ERTS-1 satellite data in Great Lakes mesometeorological studies

The author has identified the following significant results. In the original proposal, it was hoped that ERTS could, with its extremely high resolution and multispectral capability, detect many meteorological phenomena occurring at the low end of the mesoscale motion spectrum (1 - 100 km). This included convective cloud phenomena, internal wave patterns, air pollution, snow squalls, etc. For meteorologists, ERTS-1 has more than lived up to initial hopes. First-look inspection of images has produced a large number of truly remarkable finds. Some of the most significant are: (1) Images of Lake Ontario during late summer have revealed several extremely good examples of lake breeze frontal cloud patterns. (2) Detection of suspended particulates from Chicago-Gary industrial complex in the 50,000 to 150,000 tons/year category. (3) Inadvertant weather modification due to anthropogenic condensation and ice nuclei from urban areas.

Lyons, W. A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Martian Atmospheric Circulation and Climate

This project was submitted with four work tasks. The reviews recommended focusing on the following three, with an appropriately reduced budget: 1. In the first, we proposed to use Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) data to examine the general circulation of the atmosphere and to better constrain and validate a Mars General Circulation Model (GCM). 2. In the second, we proposed to examine processes responsible for the injection of dust into the atmosphere. We will conduct a global, seasonal survey of dust lifting events, and specifically of dust devil activity, using MGS MOC, MGS TES, and Odyssey THEMIS data. The results of this survey will be compared with model predictions of dust devil and other dust lifting processes. It is expected that some of the observational results will motivate specific simulations with the GCM and mesoscale models. 3. In the third task, we proposed to extract seasonal and spatial near-surface wind information from aeolian streaks. Detailed analysis will focus on streaks in the polar regions and in regions of large topography (such as Tharsis). The streak information will be used along with the mesoscale model to examine the processes that control local and regional scale flow patterns.

Richardson, Mark I.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Sasaki's variational optimization analysis of temperature and moisture advection in a severe storm environment

Temperature and moisture advection patterns of dry air intrusion were analyzed by a variational optimization method to relate mesoscale advection to a severe thunderstorm environment. The analysis results presented here were obtained from a case study, May 26, 1973, when a tornado squall line developed in Oklahoma in conjunction with a clearly delineated dry air intrusion. Observations from the synoptic upper air network were used for inputs of horizontal wind components, potential temperature, and mixing ratio at each 50 mb increment from 950 to 100 mb. An objective analysis was performed to assign values of the variables to grid points of a 15 x 14 horizontal grid with approximate 125 km grid spacing at each pressure level. After the analysis the data fields were smoothed using a variational formalism.

Mcfarland, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Interaction of the antarctic circumpolar current with bottom topography - An investigation using satellite altimetry

Theoretical studies on the interaction of a zonal current with a zonal ridge, an isolated bump, and a meridional ridge compare favorably with hydrographic observations within the eastward flowing Antarctic Circumpolar Current where it flows over similar topographic features. However, the existing hydrographic data are insufficient for examining the temporal stability and kinematic behavior of the resulting mesoscale structures. In this study, some of these transient features have been compared with patterns in sea surface variability, derived from collinear satellite altimetric data. When these features occurred near the crossing point of two satellite ground traces, it was possible to characterize their length scales, dynamic height relief, and translational and surface geostrophic velocities.

Colton, M. T.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Initialization of soil-water content in regional-scale atmospheric prediction models

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility of determining the soil-water content fields required as initial conditions for land surface components within atmospheric prediction models. This is done using a model of the hydrologic balance and conventional meteorological observations, land cover, and soils information. A discussion is presented of the subgrid-scale effects, the integration time, and the choice of vegetation type on the soil-water content patterns. Finally, comparisons are made between two The Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model simulations, one using climatological fields and the other one using the soil-moisture fields produced by this new method.

Smith, Christopher B.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Large Charge Moment Change Lightning in an Oklahoma Mesoscale Convective System

On 31 May 2013, a line of severe thunderstorms developed during the local afternoon in central Oklahoma, USA. One of the supercells produced the El Reno tornado, which caused significant damage and killed several people. During the 2300 UTC hour (during the mature supercell stage and just after the tornado began), the storm produced several positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) lightning strokes that featured large (> 75 C km) impulse charge moment changes (iCMCs - charge moment during the first 2 ms after the return stroke). These discharges occurred mainly in convection, in contrast to the typical pattern of large-CMC and sprite-parent +CGs occurring mainly in stratiform precipitation regions. After this time, the line of thunderstorms evolved over several hours into a large mesoscale convective system (MCS). By the 0700 UTC hour on 1 June 2013, the large- CMC pattern had changed markedly. Large-CMC negative CGs, which were absent early in the storm's lifetime, occurred frequently within convection. Meanwhile, large- CMC +CGs had switched to occurring mainly within the broad stratiform region that had developed during the intervening period. The evolution of the large-CMC lightning in this case will be examined using a mix of polarimetric data from individual radars, national mosaics of radar reflectivity, the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (OKLMA), the Charge Moment Change Network (CMCN), and the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). A major goal of this study is understanding how storm structure and evolution affected the production of large-CMC lightning. It is anticipated that this will lead to further insight into how and why storms produce the powerful lightning that commonly causes sprites in the upper atmosphere.

Lang, Timothy J.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Investigation of environmental change pattern in Japan

The author has identified the following significant results. A detailed land use classification for a large urban area of Tokyo was made using MSS digital data. It was found that residential, commercial, industrial, and wooded areas and grasslands can be successfully classified. A mesoscale vortex associated with large ocean current, Kuroshio, which is a rare phenomenon, was recognized visually through the analysis of MSS data. It was found that this vortex affects the effluent patterns of rivers. Lava flowing from Sakurajima Volcano was clearly classified for three major erruptions (1779, 1914, and 1946) using MSS data.

Maruyasu, T.↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Numerical Study of the Urban Heat Island in the Coastal Tropical City of San Juan, Puerto Rico: Model Validation and Impacts of LCLU Changes

Urban sprawls in tropical locations are rapidly accelerating and it is more evident in islands where a large percentage of the population resides along the coasts. This paper focuses on the analysis of the impacts of land use and land cover for urbanization in the tropical coastal city of San Juan, in the tropical island of Puerto Rico. A mesoscale numerical model, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), is used to study specific characteristics and patterns of the urban heat island in the San Juan Metropolitan Area (SJMA), the most noticeable urban core of the Caribbean. The research present in this paper makes use of the observations obtained during the airborne San Juan Atlas Mission in two ways. First, surface and rawinsonde data are used to validate the atmospheric model yielding satisfactory results. Second, airborne remote sensing information is used to update the model's surface characteristics to obtain a detailed configuration of the SJMA in order to perform the LCLU changes impact analysis. This analysis showed that the presence of San Juan has an impact reflected in higher air temperatures over the area occupied by the city, with positive values of up to 2.5 C, for the simulations that have specified urban LCLU indexes in the bottom boundary. One interesting result of the impact analysis was the finding of a precipitation disturbance shown as a difference in total accumulated rainfall between simulation with the city and with a potential natural vegetation induced by the presence of the urban area. Model results indicate that the urban-induced cloud formation and precipitation development occur mainly downwind of the city, including the accumulated precipitation. This spatial pattern can be explained by the presence of a-larger urbanized area in the southwest sector of the city, and of the approaching northeasterly trade winds.

Comarazamy, Daniel E.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Large Charge Moment Change Lightning in an Oklahoma Mesoscale Convective System

On 31 May 2013, a line of severe thunderstorms developed during the local afternoon in central Oklahoma, USA. One of the supercells produced the El Reno tornado, which caused significant damage and killed several people. During the 2300 UTC hour (during the mature supercell stage and just after the tornado began), the storm produced several positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) lightning strokes that featured large (> 100 C km) impulse charge moment changes (iCMCs; charge moment during the first 2 ms after the return stroke). These discharges occurred mainly in convection, in contrast to the typical pattern of large-CMC and sprite-parent +CGs occurring mainly in stratiform precipitation regions. After this time, the line of thunderstorms evolved over several hours into a large mesoscale convective system (MCS). By the 0700 UTC hour on 1 June 2013, the large-CMC pattern had changed markedly. Large-CMC negative CGs, which were absent early in the storm's lifetime, occurred frequently within convection. Meanwhile, large-CMC +CGs had switched to occurring mainly within the broad stratiform region that had developed during the intervening period. The evolution of the large-CMC lightning in this case will be examined using a mix of national mosaics of radar reflectivity, the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (OKLMA), the Charge Moment Change Network (CMCN), and the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). A major goal of this study is understanding how storm structure and evolution affected the production of large-CMC lightning. It is anticipated that this will lead to further insight into how and why storms produce the powerful lightning that commonly causes sprites in the upper atmosphere.

Lang, Timothy J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

An evaluation of the synoptic- and mesoscale predictability of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0) model

A report is presented regarding the synoptic- and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a regional-scale numerical weather prediction model known as the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS, Version 2.0). The development of this model has been discussed by Kaplan et al. (1982). An evaluation of the performance of MASS 2.0 is based on the study of a sample of approximately thirty 12 h and 24 h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns over the U.S. during spring and early summer of 1982. A description of model systems is provided, and synoptic-scale evaluation methods are considered along with aspects of mesoscale evaluation methodology, examples of coherent mesoscale information provided by MASS 2.0, the results of a diagnostic study of mesoscale convective systems (MCS), and the results of a limited real-time forecast experiment.

Koch, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS1976

A study of mesoscale surface heat and moisture budgets and their relationship to airmass cumulus clouds observed in LANDSAT imagery

The author has identified the following significant results. The three budget analyses show a weak correspondence between LANDSAT cloud patterns and elements of the energy and moisture budgets. It was found that a little more energy is contributed by the ground to heat the air in cloudy areas. Improvements are warranted in the budget models and data coverage necessary to describe the environment. These models can serve as a basis for more complex models of surface air heat and moisture exchanges which would utilize readily available meteorological data on a mesoscale.

Merritt, E. S.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Evaluation of the synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system

The overall performance characteristics of a limited area, hydrostatic, fine (52 km) mesh, primitive equation, numerical weather prediction model are determined in anticipation of satellite data assimilations with the model. The synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of version 2.0 of this model, the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0), were evaluated. The two part study is based on a sample of approximately thirty 12h and 24h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns during spring and early summer. The synoptic scale evaluation results benchmark the performance of MASS 2.0 against that of an operational, synoptic scale weather prediction model, the Limited area Fine Mesh (LFM). The large sample allows for the calculation of statistically significant measures of forecast accuracy and the determination of systematic model errors. The synoptic scale benchmark is required before unsmoothed mesoscale forecast fields can be seriously considered.

Koch, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Mesoscale Variability in SUCCESS Data

Analysis of meteorological, chemical, and microphysical data from the airborne SUCCESS mission is reported. Careful analysis of the complex DC-8 flight pattern of May 2, 1996 reveals 19 linear or nearly linear flight segments within six main geographical areas, which we have analyzed. Significant mountain wave activity is revealed in the data from the MMS and MTP instruments on the DC-8, which resembles previous observations of mountain wave structures near Boulder, CO. Strong mountain-wave-induced upwelling downwind of the Rockies is noted. Turbulence is also noted in regions of the mountain wave consistent with overturning near the tropopause. Zonal winds recorded on the ER-2 are shown to consistent with mountain wave breaking at or near critical levels in the stratosphere, consistent with the strong turbulence reported by the pilot during the ER-2 flight. Those observations have been supported with spectral analyses and modeling studies. "Postcasts" of mountain wave activity on May 2, 1996, using the Naval Research Laboratory Mountain Wave Forecast Model (NRL/MWFM) predicts both strong mountain wave activity near the tropopause (as measured by the DC-8) and strong mountain-wave-induced turbulence in the stratosphere (as encountered by the ER-2). Two-dimensional simulations of fluid flow over topography reveal similar isentropic structures to observations.

Eckermann, Stephen D.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Comparison of vertical velocities analyzed by a numerical model and measured by a VHF wind profiler

The use of wind profilers for measuring vertical velocities in the troposphere and lower stratosphere is potentially of great interest for verification of forecasts, diagnosis of mesoscale circulations, and studies of wave motions. The studies of profiler vertical velocities to date have shown that the observed patterns of ascent and subsidence are reasonable when compared to the synoptic conditions. However, difficulties arise when a direct verification of the profiler vertical winds is sought. Since no other technique can measure the vertical velocities over the same height range and with the same claimed accuracy as the profilers, direct comparisons are impossible. The only alternative is to compare the measurements to analyzed vertical velocity fields. Here, researchers compare vertical measurements made with the SOUSY VHF radar over a period of 11 days at the beginning of November 1981 to the analyzed vertical velocities produced by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model for grid points near the radar site.

Larsen, M. F.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Seasonal variability in global sea level observed with Geosat altimetry

Time changes in global mesoscale sea level variances were observed with satellite altimetry between November 1986 and March 1988, showing significant, geographically coherent seasonal patterns. The NE Pacific and NE Atlantic variances show the most reliable patterns, higher than their yearly averages in both the fall and winter. The response to wind forcing appears as the major contributor to the NE Pacific and Atlantic signals; errors in the estimated inverse barometer response due to errors in atmospheric pressure, residual orbit errors, and errors in sea state bias are evaluated and found to be negligible contributors to this particular signal. The equatorial regions also show significant seasonal patterns, but the uncertainties in the wet tropospheric correction prevent definitive conclusions. The western boundary current changes are very large but not statistically significant. Estimates of the regression coefficient between sea level and significant wave height, an estimate of the sea state bias correction, range between 2.3 and 2.9 percent and vary with the type of orbit correction applied.

Zlotnicki, V.↗