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Results for “methods: statistical”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Statistical Methods for Rapid Aerothermal Analysis and Design Technology: Validation

The cost and safety goals for NASA s next generation of reusable launch vehicle (RLV) will require that rapid high-fidelity aerothermodynamic design tools be used early in the design cycle. To meet these requirements, it is desirable to identify adequate statistical models that quantify and improve the accuracy, extend the applicability, and enable combined analyses using existing prediction tools. The initial research work focused on establishing suitable candidate models for these purposes. The second phase is focused on assessing the performance of these models to accurately predict the heat rate for a given candidate data set. This validation work compared models and methods that may be useful in predicting the heat rate.

DePriest, Douglas↗
NASA NTRS2002

Statistical Methods for Rapid Aerothermal Analysis and Design Technology

The cost and safety goals for NASA's next generation of reusable launch vehicle (RLV) will require that rapid high-fidelity aerothermodynamic design tools be used early in the design cycle. To meet these requirements, it is desirable to establish statistical models that quantify and improve the accuracy, extend the applicability, and enable combined analyses using existing prediction tools. The research work was focused on establishing the suitable mathematical/statistical models for these purposes. It is anticipated that the resulting models can be incorporated into a software tool to provide rapid, variable-fidelity, aerothermal environments to predict heating along an arbitrary trajectory. This work will support development of an integrated design tool to perform automated thermal protection system (TPS) sizing and material selection.

Morgan, Carolyn↗
NASA NTRS1974

Statistical method for the prediction of matching results in spectral file searching

In file-search techniques, the distribution of mismatches quantitatively measures the fit of a particular unknown against a given library. A simple theoretical method is developed to predict, a priori, this distribution. With this procedure, for any unknown code and library, the mean number of mismatches can be calculated exactly. For a given library and coding scheme, the mismatch distribution for most unknown codes closely follows a common curve which is easily calculated from statistical properties of the library. When this common curve is normalized to a constant mean, the observed matching behavior is well predicted. The theory should permit the user to more clearly assess the effects of errors on file search performance and suggest techniques by which recognition performance may be optimized.

Grotch, S. L.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Data Analysis & Statistical Methods for Command File Errors

This paper explains current work on modeling for managing the risk of command file errors. It is focused on analyzing actual data from a JPL spaceflight mission to build models for evaluating and predicting error rates as a function of several key variables. We constructed a rich dataset by considering the number of errors, the number of files radiated, including the number commands and blocks in each file, as well as subjective estimates of workload and operational novelty. We have assessed these data using different curve fitting and distribution fitting techniques, such as multiple regression analysis, and maximum likelihood estimation to see how much of the variability in the error rates can be explained with these. We have also used goodness of fit testing strategies and principal component analysis to further assess our data. Finally, we constructed a model of expected error rates based on the what these statistics bore out as critical drivers to the error rate. This model allows project management to evaluate the error rate against a theoretically expected rate as well as anticipate future error rates.

Correlation Analysis↗
DOE OSTI2018

Final Scientific/Technical Report: Integrating Advanced Software and Statistical Methods for Spectroscopic Dark Energy Surveys

“Dark energy” is a phenomenon of unknown origin that pervades the vacuum of space and is causing the present-day expansion of the universe to accelerate. Understanding the nature of dark energy is one of the most fundamental challenges to modern physics, having the potential to revolutionize our theories of both gravity and elementary particle physics. The effects of dark energy are currently only accessible to astronomical survey experiments that probe large volumes of the cosmos. One of the most powerful forms of experiment for studying dark energy is the cosmological “redshift survey,” which maps the large-scale structure of the universe as traced by the positions of galaxies, quasars, and intergalactic hydrogen clouds. The signature of dark energy and other cosmological parameters is imprinted on this large-scale structure as it evolves over cosmic time. This project focused on maximizing the accurate extraction of information from redshift surveys by improving the algorithms and statistics applied across the chain of inference from raw pixels to high-level cosmological parameter estimation. At the low level, this project developed new techniques for calibrating and analyzing high-background, low signal-to-noise data from astronomical survey spectrographs to provide reliable three-dimensional maps of galaxies and quasars throughout the universe. At the high level, this project developed new statistical frameworks for understanding the completeness of redshift surveys and the underlying demographics of the galaxies that they observe, thereby allowing for a more accurate connection between survey results and theoretical models. This work contributes to maximizing the scientific reach of existing and planned surveys, and opens new potential feasibility for more ambitious surveys in the future.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Statistical Methods for Effective Spatial and Temporal Scaling in Support of Probabilistic Performance Assessments - 17340

Performance assessments (PAs) for the disposal of low-level radioactive waste have traditionally been performed in a deterministic manner, with inputs specified as single values as if they carry no uncertainty. Modern PAs, however, explicitly incorporate uncertainty through use of probability distributions for inputs instead of single values. While this is clearly an improvement, challenges remain in specifying appropriate distributions, many of which relate to capturing the appropriate spatial and/or temporal scale given the PA model, and matching the scale(s) of data and information to that specified by the model. More careful attention to scaling will lead to more defensible characterizations of physical variability and uncertainty in model inputs, thus leading to more defensible information regarding outcomes of interest to be used in decision making, and hence more defensible decisions. This work introduces general strategies and considerations for explicitly incorporating considerations of scale into distribution development. The strategies are explained as a series of steps and then presented with an example that starts to illustrate the new statistical concepts. This work frames the problem in terms of hierarchical statistical modeling, providing important connections to current statistical approaches to formally and rigorously account for temporal and spatial scaling. The larger goal is to build a more formal and unified approach to distribution development to help teams of modelers, subject matter experts, and statisticians work together to develop distributions and justify the choices made in the process, ultimately leading to more informed decision-making. Without this rigor, statistical distributions are not specified correctly and can have unexpected consequences for modeling and sensitivity analysis. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

Decoupling of heat generated from ejected and non-ejected contents of 18650-format lithium-ion cells using statistical methods

Effective thermal management systems, designed to handle the impacts of thermal runaway (TR) and to prevent cell-to-cell propagation, are key to safe operation of lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery assemblies. Critical factors for optimizing these systems include the total energy released during a single cell TR event and the fraction of the total energy that is released through the cell casing versus through the ejecta material. A unique fractional thermal runaway calorimeter (FTRC), designed to characterize said critical factors, was utilized to examine the TR behavior of 18650-format Li-ion cells representing a variety of manufacturers, chemistries, capacities, and safety features. Primarily, the impacts of bottom vent (BV) safety features, varied cell casing thickness, and Dreamweaver cellulose based separators were assessed for select cell types. A subset of cells also had an imbedded internal short circuiting (ISC) device to allow examination of TR behavior initiated at lower temperatures (i.e. closer to field failure conditions). The impact of bottom rupture on TR behavior was also examined for experiments that resulted in this non-standard failure mechanism. Statistical analysis of the results for each cell configuration reveals that a lognormal distribution effectively characterizes the variation of total TR energy release. Typically 20%-30% of the total energy yield is released through the cell casing with the remainder through the ejecta material. Higher energy cells tend to exhibit more violent ejections and less predictable TR events. Inclusion of a BV feature reduces the overall severity of the TR event and can increase the predictability. Results also suggest that the magnitude of the TR event may not be directly proportional to the stored electrical energy, but rather has additional dependence on other design and failure mode factors.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Novel Statistical Method for Measuring the Temperature–Density Relation in the IGM Using the b – N Hi Distribution of Absorbers in the Ly α Forest

We propose a new method for determining the thermal state of the intergalactic medium based on Voigt profile decomposition of the Lyα forest. The distribution of Doppler parameter and column density (b–N H i distribution) is sensitive to the temperature–density relation T = T 0 (ρ/ρ 0 ) γ-1 , and previous work has inferred T 0 and γ by fitting its low-b cutoff. This approach discards the majority of available data and is susceptible to systematics related to cutoff determination. We introduce an approach that exploits all information encoded in the b – N H i distribution by modeling its entire shape. We apply kernel density estimation to discrete absorption lines to generate model probability density functions, and then we use principal component decomposition to create an emulator that can be evaluated anywhere in thermal parameter space. We introduce a Bayesian likelihood based on these models enabling parameter inference via Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The method's robustness is tested by applying it to a large grid of thermal history simulations. By conducting 160 mock measurements, we establish that our approach delivers unbiased estimates and valid uncertainties for a 2D ( T 0 , γ) measurement. Furthermore, we conduct a pilot study applying this methodology to real observational data at z = 2. Using 200 absorbers, equivalent in path length to a single Lya forest spectrum, we measure $\mathrm{log}{T}_{0}={4.092}_{-0.055}^{+0.050}$ and $\gamma ={1.49}_{-0.074}^{+0.073}$ in excellent agreement with cutoff fitting determinations using the same data. Our method is far more sensitive than cutoff fitting, enabling measurements of log T 0 and γ with precision on $\mathrm{log}{T}_{0}$ (γ) nearly two (three) times higher for current data set sizes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1980

Description of statistical methods and a routine for determining the parameters of a model in processing experimental results

A computer routine is suggested for selecting the optimum parameters of a theoretical model and determining the errors in them due to errors in physical measurements and for evaluating the conformity of theory with the experiment. The paper describes the specification sequence for the input data and the format of the calculation results. Sample printouts are appended.

Usikov, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A statistical method to sense sea surface temperature from the Nimbus-7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer

Among the five channels in the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), the brightness temperature measured at 6.6 GHz vertical polarization is least affected by the atmospheric water vapor and liquid water in clouds or rain. Furthermore, as the undisturbed sea surface emissivity at 6.6 GHz is nearly constant over the temperature range 275 to 300 K, this channel has the best sensitivity to sea surface temperature (SST). The 6.6 GHz channel on SMMR is specifically chosen for these reasons to measure SST.

Prabhakara, C.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Evaluation of alpha-SiC sintering using statistical methods

The effect of time and temperature on the density and strength of alpha-SiC was studied and mathematically modeled using a central composite experimental design. A sintering temperature of 2150 C for 1.7 h maximized the flexural strength and densification values. However, temperatures above 2200 C promoted abnormal grain growth, with resulting appreciable decreases in strength. Flexural strength increased exponentially with increasing density for specimens with densities less than or equal to 92 percent of theoretical.

Hurst, J. B.↗