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Should We Enhance the Observing Systems or Improve Coordination Among the Operating Agencies: What is Needed the Most for Security--A Philosophical Discussion

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a pre-requisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomenas. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Habib, Shahid↗

Applying Advanced and Existing Sensors in Dealing with Potential Natural Disasters

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone s needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a prerequisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomena's. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Habib, Shahid↗

Acquiring Comprehensive Observations using an Integrated Sensorweb for Early Warning

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis'available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat . orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the lass of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a pre-requisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomena's. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Habib, Shahid↗

Acquiring Comprehensive Observations using an integrated Sensorweb for Early Warning

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis'available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a pre-requisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomena's. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Habib, Shahid↗

Neo – Mars Adaptive Training Integrative Knowledge System (MATRIKS) to Improve Operational Performance and its Neural Basis for Spaceflight

With prolonged mission durations, spaceflight crews will become increasingly dependent on onboard technologies for knowledge acquisition and maintenance. It is expected that not all skills and knowledge required for these missions can be retained and retrieved based on pre-mission training alone. Limited and delayed communication will significantly constrain support from Mission Control and crews will increasingly rely on autonomous onboard technologies to successfully perform post-landing operations. With the present project we will target NASA’s particular interest in developing and assessing an adaptive, just-in-time countermeasure that will consolidate and improve skills that are most relevant to space flight operations. To achieve this aim, NASA established a Virtual NASA Specialized Center of Research (VNSCOR)referred to as “Mars Adaptive Training Integrative Knowledge System (MATRIKS)”, comprising the following three projects: (1) “Trinity–Multi-Environment Virtual Training for Long Duration Exploration Missions”, PI: A. Anderson (UC Boulder); (2) “Morpheus–A Haptic Sensory Supplement to Optimize In-Flight Adaptive Training for Human Control of Spacecraft Robotic Arms”, PI: S. Robinson, UC Davis); and the present project “Neo–Adaptive Training integrative knowledge System to Improve Operational Performance and its Neural Basis for Spaceflight” (UPenn, PI: A.C. Stahn). Neo leverages a validated workstation called 6DF that simulates a rendezvous and docking maneuver using real spacecraft flight dynamics. It is designed to (1) train and improve sensorimotor skills relevant for inflight and post-landing operational tasks; (2) feature an autonomous and adaptive training approach that does not rely on feedback from flight operations on the ground; (3) maximize the transfer of mission-relevant motor skills; (4) allow the assessment of the neural circuitry underlying the task; and (5) deliver the training in a motivating and meaningful way to astronauts. Neocomprises two overarching aims: First, we will identify the neural circuitry underlying spaceflight relevant tasks by performing a subset of the 6DFtaskduring functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)in a total of up to N=30 subjects with varying levels of 6DF training experience. Second, as part of the above-mentioned VNSCOR MATRIKS the proposed 6DF autonomous intelligent tutor system will be integrated in an additive manner with a haptic feedback intervention (Morpheus), and a multi-environment virtual trainer(Trinity).It is expected that Neo, Morpheus and Trinity mutually complement each other to facilitate an effective countermeasure tool to acquire and retain operational skills that are critical for exploration class missions. To assess the efficacy of this combined effort, the VNSCOR MATRIKS will collect data inN=16 crew members in one HERA campaign of 45 days duration with N=16 crew members(four missions with N=4 crew member seach).The primary goal is to identify changes in operational performance as assessed by NASA’s simulator of Canadarm2 operations, i.e., Robotic On-board Trainer (ROBoT-r) in response to MATRIKS. As part of Neo we will also identify if, and to what extent MATRIKS will promote transfer to general cognitive performance (Cognition battery), distinctive visuo-spatial tasks critical for telerobotic tasks (Spatial Cognition battery), and affect brain structural changes and the neural circuitry of key brain networks expected to be relevant for spaceflight-related performance. At the conclusion of the research, we will have defined and demonstrated the use of a neuroscience-based, adaptive training integrative knowledge system to potentially mitigate visuo-spatial and sensorimotor brain changes associated with prolonged isolation and confinement to reduce the likelihood or impact of potential decrements in human performance capabilities during long-duration space missions. The expected significance of this 4-year project relates to its relevance for facilitating effective countermeasure tools to acquire and retain operational skills that are critical for exploration class missions. This will support the development of necessary countermeasures and technologies in support of human space exploration, focusing on mitigating operational performance risks.

A C Stahn↗

Advancing Metasurfaces Towards New Frontiers: Nonvolatile Reconfigurable Optics

The applications of adaptive optics extend across multiple sectors, encompassing areas such as LiDAR, biological and chemical sensing, and free-space communications. In this study, we report on the design, fabrication, testing, and modeling of electrically reconfigurable metasurfaces using a low-loss high contrast phase change material, Ge2Sb2Se4Te integrated with an IR-transparent silicon microheater. Through this work, we introduce a reliable architecture for switching PCM-based metasurfaces within an integrated circuit configuration which is compatible with standard foundry fabrication processes. We demonstrate the capability of controlling the transmission of electromagnetic waves through the precise stimulation of PCM-based pixels, each spanning a few hundred microns, over numerous cycles. By leveraging PCM-based pixels, we unlock the potential to create metasurfaces encompassing a diverse range of functionalities such as dielectric filters, metalens, or beam steering devices, which is governed by the design of the meta-atoms. Further, we perform an in-depth investigation into the failure mechanism utilizing techniques such as Fourier transform IR spectroscopy (FTIR), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), and thermal modeling. According to our results, due to a sharp temperature rise at the PCM/heater interface, we observe severe delamination of the PCM from the heater. More uniform PCM deposition, better adhesion at the PCM/heater interface, and a more uniform temperature distribution in the device could potentially mitigate the failure and lead to a longer life-time. By addressing these challenges, we aim to unlock the full potential of PCM-based devices and advance the field of adaptive optics.

Phase change material↗

Monitoring for Flight Path Management: Inputs to Pilot Monitoring Training

The commercial aviation industry world-wide has identified a need for improved pilot monitoring (e.g., ICAO, 2016). More specifically, aviation safety data indicate that failures in pilots' monitoring for flight path management (FPM) have contributed to a range of undesired outcomes: accidents, major upsets, and non-compliance with ATC guidance. The FAA has further stated that these types of FPM failures are likely to worsen with the increasingly complex air traffic control systems and FPM concepts proposed for NextGen (https://www.faa.gov/nextgen/what_is_nextgen/) operations (e.g., see Hah et al., 2017). An important element of this additional complexity will be the introduction of new automation or artificial intelligence that is intended to work with the flight crew but can add additional monitoring burdens. One potential mitigation for this situation is to enhance pilot training for effective monitoring. NASA Ames Research Center was asked to identify and evaluate training approaches that have the potential to enhance pilots' ability to effectively monitor for FPM (with the result of improved awareness). The focus of this work is to identify, develop or validate training guidance to improve pilot monitoring/awareness regarding FPM and mitigate the recent trend of accidents and incidents, especially Loss of Control (LOC) events. The result of this work should be guidance for FAA training and standards organizations—such as the Air Carrier Training Aviation Rulemaking Committee (ACT ARC)—to aid in reducing the risk of incidents and accidents due to inadequate pilot monitoring/awareness.

Feary, Mike↗

Analysis of Pilot Monitoring Skills and a Review of Training Effectiveness

The commercial aviation industry world-wide has identified a need for improved pilot monitoring and awareness (e.g., FAA, 2013, ICAO, 2016). More specifically, aviation safety data indicate that failures in pilots’ flight path management (FPM) monitoring and awareness have contributed to a range of undesired outcomes: accidents, major upsets, and non-compliance with air traffic control (ATC) guidance. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has further stated that these types of FPM failures are likely to worsen with the increasingly complex air traffic control systems and FPM concepts proposed for NextGen (https://www.faa. gov/nextgen/what_is_nextgen/) operations (e.g., see Hah et al., 2017). Adding to this complexity is the introduction of increasingly automated aircraft systems that can increase monitoring burdens. One potential mitigation for this situation is to enhance pilot training for effective monitoring. NASA Ames Research Center was asked to identify and evaluate training approaches that have the potential to enhance pilots’ ability to effectively monitor for FPM (with the result of improved awareness). The focus of this work is to identify, develop or validate training guidance to improve pilot monitoring/awareness regarding FPM and mitigate the recent trend of accidents and incidents, especially loss of control (LOC) events. The result of this work should be input for improved industry standards and FAA guidance to reduce the risk of incidents and accidents due to inadequate pilot monitoring/awareness. This is the first of three reports that were developed for this project.

aviation human factors↗

Electromagnetic Pulse – Resilient Electric Grid for National Security: Research Program Executive Summary

Sandia National Laboratories sponsored a three-year internally funded Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) effort to investigate the vulnerabilities and mitigations of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) on the electric power grid. The research was focused on understanding the vulnerabilities and potential mitigations for components and systems at the high voltage transmission level. Results from the research included a broad array of subtopics, covered in twenty-three reports and papers, and which are highlighted in this executive summary report. These subtopics include high altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) characterization, HEMP coupling analysis, system-wide effects, and mitigating technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Extravehicular Activity on the Lunar Surface: Mapping Mitigation Risk Consequence for Crew Needing Assistance or Rescue

Extravehicular activity (EVA) on the lunar surface presents unique risks to crew with possibility for injury. Without appropriate assistance or rescue capability, inability to nominally ambulate and return to a lander, especially during early Artemis missions, could have catastrophic consequences. Mapping likelihood and consequence safety risk associated with identified injury scenarios establishes a baseline from which to assess potential mitigation solutions to ensure crew health and safety. Causes leading to the need for incapacitated crew rescue (ICR) during EVA on the lunar surface were previously identified and classified using an ICR/Acute Injury scenario spectrum. Severe scenarios are those when the affected astronaut requires either partial or full continuous assistance from the rescuer. Evaluation of these continual reliance conditions included calculating event probabilities (likelihoods) associated with an early Artemis mission and mapping them to established Exploration System Directorate (ESD) probability thresholds; safety consequences were analyzed and correlated to defined ESD personnel safety categories. These resulting likelihood and consequence values served as a baseline for assessing risk reduction of three mitigation capabilities: crew assistance (rescuer crew) only, walking assist devices, and a wheeled transport device. Of the twenty-five continual reliance conditions, ten were evaluated as “catastrophic” (Level 5, loss of life) during EVA on the lunar surface with probabilities ranging from moderate to very low during an early Artemis mission. Crew assistance only and walking assist devices showed similar potential for risk reduction, with four of the ten causes decreasing to Level 4. A wheeled transport device further increased risk reduction with six of the ten conditions decreasing to Level 4. Given the catastrophic consequence of several identified conditions, assessments should be performed to determine the feasibility of mitigation capabilities. It is currently unknown whether a rescuer astronaut could effectively provide continuous assistance to enable both crew to return safely to the lander from the standpoint of both suit geometry and human performance. Although resulting in an increase in resources, providing a wheeled transport provides the highest risk reduction potential, and walking assist devices may have prevention as well as mitigation benefits.

lunar surface↗

Compact Plasma Accelerator for Micropropulsion Applications

There is a need for a low power, light-weight (compact), high specific impulse electric propulsion device to satisfy mission requirements for microsatellite (1 to 20 kg) class missions. Satisfying these requirements entails addressing the general problem of generating a sufficiently dense plasma within a relatively small volume and then accelerating it. In the work presented here, the feasibility of utilizing a magnetic cusp to generate a dense plasma over small length scales of order 1 mm is investigated. This approach could potentially mitigate scaling issues associated with conventional ion thruster plasma containment schemes. Plume and discharge characteristics were documented using a Faraday probe and a retarding potential analyzer.

Foster, John E.↗

Oil and Natural Gas Development near and beneath Uranium Tailings Cells and Other Remediated Sites - 20358

DOE LM is responsible for maintaining remedies at more than 50 remediated sites that require active long-term surveillance and maintenance (LTS and M). Institutional controls (ICs) were established to limit human and environmental exposures to residual contamination by controlling land use, restricting access to potential hazards, and making the public aware of potential dangers from the residual contamination. ICs for each site were developed based on current and foreseeable conditions; however, these controls should evolve to mitigate potential human health and other environmental risks from unanticipated changes in activities or site conditions. Activities conducted beyond the DOE long-term care boundaries by non-DOE parties may impact the effectiveness of ICs or even the long-term stability of disposal cells and groundwater remedies. Several sites that LM manages or that will transfer to LM for LTS and M are in active oil and gas production basins. The sites are associated with uranium ore milling or nuclear test sites and have been remediated or are in the process of remediation and have no ongoing DOE mission. Particularly since 2005, hydraulic fracturing ('fracking') combined with directional drilling has dramatically increased oil and natural gas (oil/gas) production in the United States, now making it the number one hydrocarbon-producing country. Fracking has allowed production from shale and other rocks of low natural permeability that were historically not considered viable oil/gas resources. Also, because wellbores can now be drilled as many as 5 kilometers or more horizontally, hydrocarbons can be recovered from zones without having access to the surface above them. Drilling activity near Rulison, Colorado, the location of an underground nuclear detonation managed by LM, has raised public concerns that remnant radioactivity in the detonation zone could migrate to producing wells and enter the natural gas distribution system. At sites like the Falls City, Texas, Disposal site, transitioned to LM with a split estate, increased production in the region has resulted in wellbores beneath the long-term care boundary of the site. While the DOE license for Falls City was approved by the NRC in 1997 without the acquisition of the subsurface rights, NRC has raised concerns on whether this activity impacts the integrity of the cell and/or groundwater remedies. In Wyoming, LM is anticipating receiving the license for the Bear Creek site and manages the Spook site, both locations of uranium mill tailings disposal cells. These Wyoming sites are in an active region of major oil and gas development. This change in surrounding land use will require LM to work collaboratively with NRC to address these concerns. At several DOE sites radioactive waste, and often intermixed nonradioactive constituents, is permanently isolated in engineered disposal cells. At other sites, residual contamination can be present in groundwater, blast cavities, and infinite amounts within soil. Areas targeted for oil and gas development at the Texas and Wyoming sites range from depths of 2440 to 3350 meters (8000-11000 feet) below ground surface. When most site remedies were designed, oil and gas development was not considered to be an issue within the site boundary. With the more recent uses of directional drilling, fracking, and associated wastewater injections, the evaluative criteria for incoming sites and ICs for managing long-term protectiveness and regulatory compliance are changing. Although DOE surface ownership was previously thought to be a robust IC to prevent surface and subsurface development, particularly at disposal sites, that may no longer be the case. Whereas the subsurface development at Texas and Wyoming sites is currently occurring at thousands of meters beneath the surface, shallower and direct onsite development would be more of a concern for LM. The energy introduced when a well is hydraulically fractured causes microseismic events (magnitude -2 to 1.0) as the fractures propagate but does not directly cause seismic events (earthquakes) of sufficient magnitude to damage surface structures. Additionally, the extent of the hydraulic fractures is limited to the targeted depths, which are far below the surface. However, earthquakes of sufficient magnitude to damage surface structures have been attributed to the injection of wastewater into disposal wells. States that have experienced these effects have enacted regulations that limit the rate and pressures that wastewater can be injected into disposal wells. Items LM may consider are the need for monitoring the volume of water injected into nearby disposal wells and possibly installing seismic stations at sites most susceptible to damage. While the need to demonstrate that no impact from oil and gas extraction activities on a site groundwater remedy or disposal cells will vary from site to site, LM is assessing risk criteria for this activity. Though LM has not experienced an issue yet at a uranium tailings disposal site, it cannot assume that there will be none, and must address NRC concerns. LM is building on past experiences at other sites and beginning to form new processes with the hope that these concepts can be applied for other future sites. (authors)

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Stress Relaxation Cracking of Alloys at Temperatures Higher Than 540°C

Type 347H stainless steel (347H SS), used in commercial concentrating solar power (CSP) thermal energy storage to store solar-salt at a temperature of 565°C, has been reported in the literature to be susceptible to stress-relaxation cracking (SRC). The welded heat-affected zone (HAZ) and fusion zone (FZ) of 347H SS, particularly in thick sections, are known to be susceptible to failure during post-weld heat treatment (reheat cracking). SRC could also occur after months or years under an elevated-temperature service environment. Two conditions must be present for failure to occur in the HAZ and/or FZ: 1) a modified or sensitized microstructure and 2) sufficiently high tensile residual stresses present at the elevated service temperature. The overarching goal of this project is to recommend SRC mitigation protocols to avoid susceptibility to fail through SRC at temperatures relevant for CSP. Post weld heat treatment conditions and alternative alloys are investigated as potential mitigation solutions to SRC. We used Gleeble thermomechanical simulation tests and finite element (FE) models to understand the susceptibility of 347H SS to SRC as a function of temperature, stress, and microstructure. We started with a literature review of weldability issues with 347H SS and techniques to mitigate SRC in 347H SS weldments. Next, we used Gleeble experiments to determine reheat cracking susceptibility in the simulated HAZ of 347SS weldments and an alternative alloy, 316L SS (NUCL 167 SPH) with boron added. We also performed Gleeble experiments to compare the reheat cracking susceptibility of 347H cross welded with two different fillers: E347, which is used in some commercial CSP TES tanks, and E16.8.2. We validated the experimental results with FE models of the residual stresses. We found that although the 316L (NUCL 167 SPH) is less susceptible to reheat cracking, it is slightly weaker than 347H and ASME BP&V codes limit its use to a service condition of 565°C. We also found that welds using E16.8.2 as the weld filler are less susceptible to failure than those using E347, likely due to the higher creep ductility of E16.8.2, and that it may be used as an alternative filler for repair welding of 347H welds or as the primary choice of filler for newly developed weld joints. We also found that post weld heat treatment could be a viable solution for mitigating stress in E347-347H SS thick, constrained welds, like those found in CSP tanks, and propose several options for mitigating SRC in existing and future TES tanks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Land‐based climate solutions for the United States

Abstract Meeting end‐of‐century global warming targets requires aggressive action on multiple fronts. Recent reports note the futility of addressing mitigation goals without fully engaging the agricultural sector, yet no available assessments combine both nature‐based solutions (reforestation, grassland and wetland protection, and agricultural practice change) and cellulosic bioenergy for a single geographic region. Collectively, these solutions might offer a suite of climate, biodiversity, and other benefits greater than either alone. Nature‐based solutions are largely constrained by the duration of carbon accrual in soils and forest biomass; each of these carbon pools will eventually saturate. Bioenergy solutions can last indefinitely but carry significant environmental risk if carelessly deployed. We detail a simplified scenario for the United States that illustrates the benefits of combining approaches. We assign a portion of non‐forested former cropland to bioenergy sufficient to meet projected mid‐century transportation needs, with the remainder assigned to nature‐based solutions such as reforestation. Bottom‐up mitigation potentials for the aggregate contributions of crop, grazing, forest, and bioenergy lands are assessed by including in a Monte Carlo model conservative ranges for cost‐effective local mitigation capacities, together with ranges for (a) areal extents that avoid double counting and include realistic adoption rates and (b) the projected duration of different carbon sinks. The projected duration illustrates the net effect of eventually saturating soil carbon pools in the case of most strategies, and additionally saturating biomass carbon pools in the case of forest management. Results show a conservative end‐of‐century mitigation capacity of 110 (57–178) Gt CO 2 e for the U.S., ~50% higher than existing estimates that prioritize nature‐based or bioenergy solutions separately. Further research is needed to shrink uncertainties, but there is sufficient confidence in the general magnitude and direction of a combined approach to plan for deployment now.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data from: Land-based climate solutions for the United States

Meeting end-of-century global warming targets requires aggressive action on multiple fronts. Recent reports note the futility of addressing mitigation goals without fully engaging the agricultural sector, yet no available assessments combine both nature-based solutions (reforestation, grassland and wetland protection, and agricultural practice change) and cellulosic bioenergy for a single geographic region. Collectively, these solutions might offer a suite of climate, biodiversity, and other benefits greater than either alone. Nature-based solutions are largely constrained by the duration of carbon accrual in soils and forest biomass; each of these carbon pools will eventually saturate. Bioenergy solutions can last indefinitely but carry significant environmental risk if carelessly deployed. We detail a simplified scenario for the U.S. that illustrates the benefits of combining approaches. We assign a portion of non-forested former cropland to bioenergy sufficient to meet projected mid-century transportation needs, with the remainder assigned to nature-based solutions such as reforestation. Bottom-up mitigation potentials for the aggregate contributions of crop, grazing, forest, and bioenergy lands are assessed by including in a Monte Carlo model conservative ranges for cost-effective local mitigation capacities, together with ranges for (a) areal extents that avoid double counting and include realistic adoption rates and (b) the projected duration of different carbon sinks. The projected duration illustrates the net effect of eventually saturating soil carbon pools in the case of most strategies, and additionally saturating biomass carbon pools in the case of reforestation. Results show a conservative end-of-century mitigation capacity of 110 (57 – 178) Gt CO2e for the U.S., ~50% higher than existing estimates that prioritize nature-based or bioenergy solutions separately. Further research is needed to shrink uncertainties but there is sufficient confidence in the general magnitude and direction of a combined approach to plan for deployment now.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Evaluating Short-warning Mitigation via Intentional Robust Disruption of a Hypothetical Impact of Asteroid 2023 NT1

We investigate various short-warning mitigation scenarios via fragmentation for a hypothetical impact of asteroid 2023 NT1, a near-Earth object (NEO) that was discovered on 2023 July 15, two days after its closest approach to Earth on July 13. The asteroid passed by Earth within ∼0.25 lunar distances, with a closest approach of ∼1 × 10 5 km and a velocity of 11.27 km s −1 . Its size remains largely uncertain, with an estimated diameter range of 26–58 m and a most probable estimate of 34 m (JPL Sentry, 2023 September 15; weighted by the NEO size frequency distribution). If 2023 NT1 had collided with Earth, it could have caused significant local damage. Assuming a spherical asteroid with a diameter of 34 m, uniform density of 2.6 g cm −3 , and impact velocity of 15.59 km s −1 , a collision would have yielded an estimated impact energy of ∼1.5 Mt, approximately 3 times the energy of the Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013. We analyze the effectiveness of mitigation via intentional robust disruption for objects similar to 2023 NT1. We utilize Pulverize It (PI), a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts study of planetary defense via fragmentation, to model potential mitigation scenarios through simulations of hypervelocity asteroid disruption and atmospheric ground effects in the case of a terminal defense mode. Simulations suggest that PI is an effective multimodal approach for planetary defense that can operate in extremely short interdiction modes, in addition to long interdiction timescales with extended warning. Our simulations support the proposition that threats like 2023 NT1 can be effectively mitigated with intercepts of 1 day (or less) prior to impact, yielding minimal to no ground damage.

Asteroids↗

A methodology for the environmental assessment of advanced coal extraction systems

Procedures developed to identify and assess potential environment impacts of advanced mining technology as it moves from a generic concept to a more systems definition are described. Two levels of assessment are defined in terms of the design stage of the technology being evaluated. The first level of analysis is appropriate to a conceptual design. At this level it is assumed that each mining process has known and potential environmental impacts that are generic to each mining activity. By using this assumption, potential environmental impacts can be identified for new mining systems. When two or more systems have been assessed, they can be evaluated comparing potential environmental impacts. At the preliminary stage of design, a systems performance can be assessed again with more precision. At this level of systems definition, potential environmental impacts can be analyzed and their significane determined in a manner to facilitate comparisons between systems. At each level of analysis, suggestions calculated to help the designer mitigate potentially harmful impacts are provided.

Sullivan, P. J.↗

Available land for cellulosic biofuel production: a supply chain centered comparison

The land that is potentially available to produce dedicated cellulosic bioenergy crops, often referred to as 'marginal' land, depends heavily on the underlying assumptions used to classify and identify it. In this study we compare three definitions and types of marginal land to identify the interactions between the bioenergy landscape and the logistics networks needed for the biofuel supply chain. Typical studies of the scale, cost, and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential of cellulosic biofuel take a land-centered approach which may neglect to account for the trade-offs between establishing bioenergy crops and the supply chain design decisions needed to allow those crops to be converted to liquid fuel. A mathematical programming approach is used to minimize the total annualized cost of a large-scale field-to-product system producing bioethanol in the USA midwest. Results show that a high concentration of marginal land leads to efficient systems and that the bioenergy landscape design becomes increasingly important with a higher emphasis on GHG mitigation. Additionally, targeted landscape design (including fertilization) with a focus on fields with high soil carbon sequestration potential can greatly reduce the system-wide GHG emissions for only a small increase in the unit cost of biofuel.

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