Results for “mode choice study design” — Page 4

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Passenger Aggregation Network with Very Efficient Listing (PANVEL) Ridesharing Model for Urban Air Mobility

This paper introduces a ridesharing model useful for examining the role of ridesharing in advancing Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. Although the success of UAM will likely require a host of new technologies in aircraft design, airspace management, autonomy, and more, operational innovations like ridesharing may also be key, especially to lower operating costs and attract a broader market. The ridesharing algorithm introduced, termed the Passenger Aggregation Network with Very Efficient Listing (PANVEL) model, estimates trip numbers and passenger occupancy aboard particular aircraft within a UAM network in a metropolitan area. This algorithm is applied within a transportation computational framework to determine the impact of ridesharing on mode choice, passenger travel patterns, and transportation costs. The algorithm aggregates passengers traveling between identical origin-destination pairs, factoring in individual-specific metrics, such as value of time and alternative mode options, to generate high load factors on UAM aircraft. The computational framework simulates passenger mode-choice selections using an effective-cost approach to determine the number of ridesharing UAM-preferred trips, and results with ridesharing are representative of a rough upper bound on UAM ridership potential for a given metro area. A case study in the Cleveland metro area is presented to demonstrate the algorithm and assess ridesharing potential.

advanced air mobility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Passenger Aggregation Network with Very Efficient Listing (PANVEL) Ridesharing Model for Urban Air Mobility

This presentation introduces a ridesharing model useful for examining the role of ridesharing in advancing Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. Although the success of UAM will likely require a host of new technologies in aircraft design, airspace management, autonomy, and more, operational innovations like ridesharing may also be key, especially to lower operating costs and attract a broader market. The ridesharing algorithm introduced, termed the Passenger Aggregation Network with Very Efficient Listing (PANVEL) model, estimates trip numbers and passenger occupancy aboard particular aircraft within a UAM network in a metropolitan area. This algorithm is applied within a transportation computational framework to determine the impact of ridesharing on mode choice, passenger travel patterns, and transportation costs. The algorithm aggregates passengers traveling between identical origin-destination pairs, factoring in individual-specific metrics, such as value of time and alternative mode options, to generate high load factors on UAM aircraft. The computational framework simulates passenger mode-choice selections using an effective-cost approach to determine the number of ridesharing UAM-preferred trips, and results with ridesharing are representative of a rough upper bound on UAM ridership potential for a given metro area. A case study in the Cleveland metro area is presented to demonstrate the algorithm and assess ridesharing potential.

advanced air mobility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Strategy for Developing Technologies for Megawatt-class Nuclear Electric Propulsion Systems

In late fiscal year 2020, the Space Nuclear Propulsion (SNP) project began the process of formulating an investment strategy to support development of the technologies required for a high-power (megawatt-class) nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) system capable of performing human-scale missions. This activity was initiated concurrent with several high-level studies and assessments were either under way or had just concluded. Studies of human-scale Mars missions have been performed several times over the past two decades. One of the most recent studies examined opposition-class human Mars missions to occur in the late 2030s timeframe [1,2]. The mission architecture assumed a hybrid NEP/chem-propelled vehicle that used a high specific impulse (Isp) NEP-system and a liquid oxygen (LOx)-liquid methane high thrust chemical stage (two 110 kN (25 klbf) thrust, 365 s Isp engines) for maneuvers performed to enter and exit gravity wells. Trajectory analyses performed in this study showed that such a mission could be performed with 2-4 MWe directed into the electric propulsion system (operating for 20,000+ hours), with the large range representing different opposition-class Mars mission opportunities and permutations on the trajectory design, concept of operations, and technology choices. In 2020, the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) performed a study to evaluate the maturity of the different technologies required for nuclear propulsion systems [3]. The executive summary of this report provided the following top-level conclusions: • “The majority of critical technologies for… NEP/Chem… systems are relatively immature” • “TRLs [technology readiness levels] in the literature are often overestimated” • “The majority of critical technologies… for NEP/Chem… systems are at a relatively high level of advancement degree of difficulty (AD2 > 4) for maturation, requiring a dual development approach” • “The proper assessment of baseline TRL and AD2 values and the estimation of requirements and resources required for advancement have been consistent issues for NEP,” • “Non-advocate reviews should occur at the start of a technology program and at all key milestones.” In 2021, the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) issued a separate report [4] identifying the “primary technical and programmatic challenges, merits, and risks for maturing space nuclear propulsion technologies of interest to a future human Mars exploration mission.” That work contained several important findings, including: • “Developing a MWe-class NEP system for the baseline mission would require increasing power by orders of magnitude relative to NEP system flight- or ground-based technology demonstrations completed to date.” • “Subscale in-space flight testing of NEP systems cannot address many of the risks and potential failure modes associated with the baseline mission NEP system. With sufficient M&S [modeling & simulation] and ground testing, including modular subsystem tests at full scale and power, flight qualification requirements can be met by the cargo missions that will precede the first crewed mission to Mars. Fully integrated ground testing may not be required.” • “As a result of low and intermittent investment over the past several decades, it is unclear if even an aggressive program would be able to develop an NEP system capable of executing the baseline mission in 2039.” These efforts motivated the SNP project to investigate the technologies available for a megawatt-class high power nuclear electric propulsion system. That system is illustrated schematically in Figure 1 and is comprised of five separate top-level critical technology elements (CTEs). 1. Nuclear Reactor – Thermal power source for the system, utilizing high-assay low enriched uranium (HALEU) as the nuclear fuel. Reactor radiation shielding is also included in this CTE. 2. Power Conversion – Operates as a thermodynamic cycle, accepting nuclear reactor thermal power as an input and converting it to mechanical power. 3. Power Management and Distribution (PMAD) – Accepts as an input mechanical power from the power conversion system, which is used to generate electrical power. The PMAD system also distributes the generated electrical power to all other parts of the spacecraft, including the high-power EP system. The PMAD system may also perform duties such as isolation, fault detection, and power transformation/rectification for different spacecraft systems, including the thrusters. 4. Electric Propulsion (EP) – Accepts as an input electrical power, which is used to accelerate a propellant to high speeds to produce thrust. This system includes the power processing unit (PPU), which converts the power it receives to the correct current and voltage required by the thrusters, and the propellant storage and feed systems, which contain and meter the flow of propellant to the thrusters. 5. Thermal Management (Radiators/Heat Rejection) – The cold side of the thermodynamic power conversion cycle, accepts thermal power from the power conversion system and radiatively rejects that heat to space. In this paper, we describe the SNP project formulation and investment strategy that aims to accomplish the research and development required to advance the technology readiness for each CTE. The strategy relies heavily upon experimental testing supported by modeling and simulation to yield realistic assessments of the technologies, which in turn will be used to inform future NEP system-level design decisions and any potential technology downselects.

Kurt A Polzin↗

NASA NTRS2000

Development of a Two Dimensional Synthetic Aperture Radiometer at L-Band

A radiometer that uses aperture synthesis in two dimensions is being built as part of research under NASA's Instrument Incubator Program. The instrument development team consists of engineers at the Goddard Space Flight Center, the University of Massachusetts and Quadrant Engineering. This will be an aircraft instrument operating at L-band which builds on the heritage of ESTAR. The choice of L-band was made because the problem of achieving adequate resolution in space is most critical at this wavelength and because a polarimetric, conical scanning airborne radiometer for future experiments to validate soil moisture and ocean salinity retrieval algorithms is not currently available. The instrument will be designed to fly on the NASA P-3 aircraft in a nadir pointing mode, although other options are possible. The antenna will consist of an array of modules arranged in a rectangular grid. Each module will be comprised of a printed circuit dual-polarized patch and integrated receiver. The distribution of modules within the rectangular array will be adjustable so that several different imaging configurations (e.g. "+","Y", "T") can be employed. The integrated receiver will provide amplification and conversion to IF. The IF signal will be routed to a processor where the required correlations performed. The I and Q channels will be created digitally and the correlations will be done digitally in this processor. The digitization will be done with sufficient bits to study the effects of quantization on radiometer performance. A computer/controller will store the data for conversion to an image and will also perform temperature control and other data interfacing and housekeeping tasks. The instrument is currently in the bread boarding phase of development. A design of the critical components has been completed and hardware is being assembled to test the individual elements. It is expected that a complete 2-channel correlator will be tested by the summer of 2000 and that the complete instrument will be ready for flight tests the following summer (2001).

LeVine, D. M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cage Molecules Stabilize Lead Halide Perovskite Thin Films

The environmental stability of hybrid organic-inorganic perovskite (HOIP) materials needs to increase to enable their widespread adoption in thin-film solar and optoelectronic devices. Molecular additives have recently emerged as an effective strategy for regulating HOIP crystal growth and passivating defects. However, to date the choice of additives is largely limited to a dozen or so materials under the design philosophy that high crystallinity is a prerequisite for stable HOIP thin films. Here, in this study, we incorporate porous organic cages (POCs) as functional additives into perovskite thin films for the first time and investigate the HOIP-POC interaction via a combined experimental and computational approach. POCs are significantly larger than the small-molecule additives explored for HOIP synthesis to date but much smaller than polymeric sealants. Partially amorphized composites of MAPbI 3 (methylammonium lead iodide, HOIP) and RCC3 (an amine POC) form a network-like surface topography and lead to an increase in the optical bandgap from 1.60 to 1.63 eV. Further in situ optical imaging suggests that RCC3 can delay the MAPbI 3 film degradation onset up to 50x under heat and humidity stresses, showing promise for improving reliability in HOIP-based solar-cell and light-emitting applications. Furthermore, there is evidence of molecular interactions between RCC3 and MAPbI 3 , as fingerprinted by the suppressed N-H stretching mode in MA + from Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectra and density functional theory (DFT) simulations that suggest strong hydrogen bonding between MA + and RCC3. Given the diversity of POCs and HOIPs, our work opens a new avenue to stabilize HOIPs via tailored molecular interactions with functional organic materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Continuum electromagnetic gyrokinetic simulations of turbulence in the tokamak scrape-off layer and laboratory devices

Here, we present algorithms and results from Gkeyll, a full-f continuum, electromagnetic gyrokinetic code, designed to study turbulence in the edge region of fusion devices. The edge is computationally very challenging, requiring robust algorithms that can handle large-amplitude fluctuations and stable interactions with plasma sheaths. We present an energy-conserving high-order discontinuous Galerkin scheme that solves gyrokinetic equations in Hamiltonian form. Efficiency is improved by a careful choice of basis functions and automatically generated computation kernels. Previous verification tests were performed in the straight-field-line large plasma device [Shi et al., J. Plasma Phys. 83, 905830304 (2017)] and the Texas Helimak, a simple magnetized torus [Bernard et al., Phys. Plasmas 26, 042301 (2019)], including the effect of end-plate biasing on turbulence. Results for the scrape-off layer for NSTX parameters with a model helical magnetic geometry with bad curvature have been obtained [Shi et al., Phys. Plasmas 26, 012307 (2019)]. In this paper, we present algorithms for the two formulations of electromagnetic gyrokinetics: the Hamiltonian and the symplectic. We describe each formulation and show results of benchmark tests. Although our scheme works for the Hamiltonian formulation, the presence of spurious numerical modes for high-β and large $k^2_⊥ρ^2_s$ regimes shows that the symplectic formulation is more robust. We then review our recent algorithm for the symplectic formulation [Mandell et al., J. Plasma Phys. 86, 905860109 (2020)], along with example application of this new capability. Maintaining positivity of the distribution function can be challenging, and we describe a new and novel exponential recovery based algorithm to address this.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Chemical Interaction of Palladium in Uranium Oxycarbide Nuclear Fuel Kernel

Chemical Interaction of Palladium in Uranium Oxycarbide Nuclear Fuel Kernel Jana Howard1,3, Guang Yang3, Haiyan Zhao1*, Patrick Warren4, Tiankai Yao3, Steven Cavazos4 Elizabeth Sooby Wood4*, Ching-heng Shiau2 1 University of Idaho, Environmental Science, Idaho Falls, Idaho, USA 2 Boise State University, Microscopy and Characterization Suite, Idaho Falls, Idaho, USA 3 Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, Idaho, USA 4 University of Texas San Antonio, Department of Physics and Astronomy, San Antonio, Texas, USA *Corresponding author: haiyanz@uidaho.edu; elizabeth.soobywood@utsa.edu Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel is the preferred choice for the newest and next-generation high-temperature nuclear reactors due to its robust construction [1]. The fuel design effectively contains fission products inside the particle at extremely high temperatures [2]. However, the effect of transition metal fission products on fuel performance and structural integrity remains largely unknown, creating uncertainties in predicting fuel performance and potential failure mechanisms [2]. For example, palladium (Pd) has a strong tendency to form intermetallic phases with uranium (U). These new phases tend to be hard and brittle which could lead to fracture of fuel kernel during irradiation [3,4]. Pd is not normally produced in high concentrations in normal fission reactions however, driving the production of Pd into the locality of a Uranium Oxycarbide (UCO) nuclear fuel provides an opportunity to closely observe the diffusion and chemical interactions. This study focuses on detailed transmission electron microscopy characterization of the intermetallic phases formed by the interaction between a UCO kernel and a Pd bar after annealing at 1100 °C for 100 hours. Figure 1 provides an overview of the UCO kernel in contact with the Pd bar. The UCO-Pd sample surface was examined using a Focused Ion Beam (FIB) Quanta 3D FEG FEI in VCD detector mode at 10kV, 83pA to reveal surface features. Several key surface features in the interaction region were observed including: (1) a small area with dendritic microstructure, (2) color contrast near the UCO kernel and Pd boundary, and (3) darker and lighter regions throughout the sample surface. To analyze diffusion behavior, FIB was used to prepare lamellae from five different areas of the UCO-Pd sample, as well as one for the as-received sample. These lamellae were examined using a Scanning Transmission Electron Microscope ThermoFisher Spectra 300 (STEM-Spectra). Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy results confirmed the diffusion between the UCO fuel and Pd bar. Figure 2 shows the identified phases of UC, UO2, and Pd dispersed throughout the interaction region. It was also found that the Pd concentration decreases as the radial distance from the UCO-Pd interface increases. The Pd concentration was 36.93% atomic fraction 11µm from the interaction region then decreased to 7.51% atomic fraction at 257 µm away from the interaction region. Figure 3 shows how concentrations of U and Pd vary across the interaction zone, highlighting the extent of diffusion. This study confirms that Pd interacts with surrounding material to form U-Pd phase and diffusion zones. These diffusion zones vary in composition depending on its radial distance from the point of contact with the Pd bar. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the fission product behavior in high temperature nuclear fuels, aiding in the prediction and mitigation of potential fuel degradation mechanisms. A B C Fig. 1. SEM micrographs of UCO fuel kernel in contact with solid Pd bar and the lift out locations. Figure 1A shows UCO fuel kernel in contact with solid Pd bar. Figure 1B shows a higher magnification image of the UCO fuel-Pd interaction zone. Figure 1C shows lift out sites for the lamellae. A B C Fig 2. EDS maps reveal the distribution of U, O, and Pd in location 3. Figure 2A shows the distribution of uranium. Figure 2B shows the distribution of oxygen. Figure 2C shows the distribution of palladium. A B C Fig 3. Palladium and uranium concentration across interaction zone in location 2. Figure 3A shows EDS map of lift out number 2. Figure 3B shows a zoomed in EDS map taken from the interaction zone. Figure 3C shows a line graph of uranium and palladium concentrations across the interaction zone. References: 1. B.E. Wells, N.R. Phillips, K.J. Geelhood. Pacific West Laboratory. (2021). TRISO Fuel: Properties and Failure Modes. https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML2117/ML21175A152.pdf (Accessed January 16, 2025). 2. American Nuclear Society. TRISO Fuel Development Progresses in INL, ORNL. https://www.gen-4.org/gif/upload/docs/application/pdf/2014-03/nov13nn_fuel_reprint.pdf (Accessed January 16, 2025) 3. Clark R.A., M.A. Con

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Chemical Interaction of Palladium in Uranium Oxycarbide Nuclear Fuel Kernel

Chemical Interaction of Palladium in Uranium Oxycarbide Nuclear Fuel Kernel Jana Howard1,3, Guang Yang3, Haiyan Zhao1*, Patrick Warren4, Tiankai Yao3, Steven Cavazos4 Elizabeth Sooby Wood4*, Ching-heng Shiau2 1 University of Idaho, Environmental Science, Idaho Falls, Idaho, USA 2 Boise State University, Microscopy and Characterization Suite, Idaho Falls, Idaho, USA 3 Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, Idaho, USA 4 University of Texas San Antonio, Department of Physics and Astronomy, San Antonio, Texas, USA *Corresponding author: haiyanz@uidaho.edu; elizabeth.soobywood@utsa.edu Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel is the preferred choice for the newest and next-generation high-temperature nuclear reactors due to its robust construction [1]. The fuel design effectively contains fission products inside the particle at extremely high temperatures [2]. However, the effect of transition metal fission products on fuel performance and structural integrity remains largely unknown, creating uncertainties in predicting fuel performance and potential failure mechanisms [2]. For example, palladium (Pd) has a strong tendency to form intermetallic phases with uranium (U). These new phases tend to be hard and brittle which could lead to fracture of fuel kernel during irradiation [3,4]. Pd is not normally produced in high concentrations in normal fission reactions however, driving the production of Pd into the locality of a Uranium Oxycarbide (UCO) nuclear fuel provides an opportunity to closely observe the diffusion and chemical interactions. This study focuses on detailed transmission electron microscopy characterization of the intermetallic phases formed by the interaction between a UCO kernel and a Pd bar after annealing at 1100 °C for 100 hours. Figure 1 provides an overview of the UCO kernel in contact with the Pd bar. The UCO-Pd sample surface was examined using a Focused Ion Beam (FIB) Quanta 3D FEG FEI in VCD detector mode at 10kV, 83pA to reveal surface features. Several key surface features in the interaction region were observed including: (1) a small area with dendritic microstructure, (2) color contrast near the UCO kernel and Pd boundary, and (3) darker and lighter regions throughout the sample surface. To analyze diffusion behavior, FIB was used to prepare lamellae from five different areas of the UCO-Pd sample, as well as one for the as-received sample. These lamellae were examined using a Scanning Transmission Electron Microscope ThermoFisher Spectra 300 (STEM-Spectra). Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy results confirmed the diffusion between the UCO fuel and Pd bar. Figure 2 shows the identified phases of UC, UO2, and Pd dispersed throughout the interaction region. It was also found that the Pd concentration decreases as the radial distance from the UCO-Pd interface increases. The Pd concentration was 36.93% atomic fraction 11µm from the interaction region then decreased to 7.51% atomic fraction at 257 µm away from the interaction region. Figure 3 shows how concentrations of U and Pd vary across the interaction zone, highlighting the extent of diffusion. This study confirms that Pd interacts with surrounding material to form U-Pd phase and diffusion zones. These diffusion zones vary in composition depending on its radial distance from the point of contact with the Pd bar. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the fission product behavior in high temperature nuclear fuels, aiding in the prediction and mitigation of potential fuel degradation mechanisms. A B C Fig. 1. SEM micrographs of UCO fuel kernel in contact with solid Pd bar and the lift out locations. Figure 1A shows UCO fuel kernel in contact with solid Pd bar. Figure 1B shows a higher magnification image of the UCO fuel-Pd interaction zone. Figure 1C shows lift out sites for the lamellae. A B C Fig 2. EDS maps reveal the distribution of U, O, and Pd in location 3. Figure 2A shows the distribution of uranium. Figure 2B shows the distribution of oxygen. Figure 2C shows the distribution of palladium. A B C Fig 3. Palladium and uranium concentration across interaction zone in location 2. Figure 3A shows EDS map of lift out number 2. Figure 3B shows a zoomed in EDS map taken from the interaction zone. Figure 3C shows a line graph of uranium and palladium concentrations across the interaction zone. References: 1. B.E. Wells, N.R. Phillips, K.J. Geelhood. Pacific West Laboratory. (2021). TRISO Fuel: Properties and Failure Modes. https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML2117/ML21175A152.pdf (Accessed January 16, 2025). 2. American Nuclear Society. TRISO Fuel Development Progresses in INL, ORNL. https://www.gen-4.org/gif/upload/docs/application/pdf/2014-03/nov13nn_fuel_reprint.pdf (Accessed January 16, 2025) 3. Clark R.A., M.A. Con

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1999

Quantitative Species Measurements in Microgravity Combustion Flames using Near-Infrared Diode Lasers

Understanding the physical phenomena controlling the ignition and spread of flames in microgravity has importance for space safety as well as for characterizing dynamical and chemical combustion processes which are normally masked by buoyancy and other gravity-related effects. Unfortunately, combustion is highly complicated by fluid mechanical and chemical kinetic processes, requiring the use of numerical modeling to compare with carefully designed experiments. More sophisticated diagnostic methods are needed to provide the kind of quantitative data necessary to characterize the properties of microgravity combustion as well as provide accurate feedback to improve the predictive capabilities of the models. Diode lasers are a natural choice for use under the severe conditions of low gravity experiments. Reliable, simple solid state operation at low power satisfies the operational restrictions imposed by drop towers, aircraft and space-based studies. Modulation wavelength absorption spectroscopy (WMS) provides a means to make highly sensitive and quantitative measurements of local gas concentration and, in certain cases, temperature. With near-infrared diode lasers, detection of virtually all major combustion species with extremely rapid response time is possible in an inexpensive package. Advancements in near-infrared diode laser fabrication technology and concurrent development of optical fibers for these lasers led to their use in drop towers. Since near-infrared absorption line strengths for overtone and combination vibrational transitions are weaker than the mid-infrared fundamental bands, WMS techniques are applied to increase detection sensitivity and allow measurement of the major combustion gases. In the first microgravity species measurement, Silver et al. mounted a fiber-coupled laser at the top of the NASA 2.2-sec drop tower and piped the light through a single-mode fiber to the drop rig. A fiber splitter divided the light into eight channels that directed the laser beam across a methane or propane diffusion jet flame. The light beams were recaptured by a set of gradient index lenses, coupled back into separate fiber optic lines, and transmitted back to detectors and electronics in the instrument package. In these experiments a 6-mm od fiber cable (containing the nine optical fibers) fell with the drop rig. Using separate detection and demodulation channels, spatial and temporal (up to 20 Hz) maps of water vapor and methane concentrations were obtained at differing heights in the flames. While this apparatus was useful from a demonstration standpoint, several drawbacks needed attention before useful scientific measurements could be obtained. First, eight lines of sight are somewhat insufficient for detailing the spatial profiles of the gas. Second, multiple detection channels operating in parallel are both expensive and present a challenge for accurate calibration. As a result, a newer scanning system was developed in our first contract under this program. The primary characteristic of this system is that it contains a single detection channel and achieves "continuous" spatial resolution by scanning the laser beam across the flame region, then directing this beam onto a single detector. Thus spatial measurements are converted to a temporal series of data. The true spatial resolution is limited only by the beam diameter and width of the sweep. In these experiments the beam is focused to about 1-mm diameter and scans across a region up to 4-cm wide.

Silver, Joel A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Impact of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulation of U.S. Deep South Summer Convection

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics pararneterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRn Center to select NOAAlNWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boWldary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage oflightuing activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Impacts of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulations of U. S. Deep South Summer Convection

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics parameterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT Center to select NOAA/NWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boundary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage of lightning activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Experimental protocol for phase 1 of the APARC QUOCA (QUasibiennial oscillation and Ozone Chemistry interactions in the Atmosphere) working group

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the main mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere, influencing the predictability of other regions in the atmosphere through its teleconnections to the stratospheric polar vortices and coupling to surface tropical and extratropical variability. However, climate and forecasting models consistently underestimate QBO amplitudes in the lower stratosphere, likely contributing to their failure to simulate these teleconnections. One underexplored contributor to model biases is missing representation of ozone-radiative feedbacks, which enhance temperature variability in the lower stratosphere, particularly at periods at and greater than the QBO (>28 months). While previous studies suggest that ozone-radiative feedbacks can impact QBO periods, amplitudes and the associated secondary circulation in the lower stratosphere, the reported impacts differ widely among models and are hard to interpret due to differences in methodology. To this end, here we propose a coordinated experimental protocol – held joint between the Atmospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (APARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Initiative (QBOi) and Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI) activities – which is aimed at assessing the coupling between stratospheric ozone, temperature and the circulation. We use the proposed experiments to define the ozone feedback on the QBO in both present-day and idealized (abrupt quadrupling of carbon dioxide) climates. While primary focus is on the QBO, the proposed protocol also enables analysis of other aspects of ozone-radiative-dynamical coupling in the atmosphere, including impacts on the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and tropospheric eddy-driven jet responses to future climate change. Here we document the scientific rationale and design of the QUOCA Phase 1 experiments, summarize the data request, and give a brief overview of participating models. Preliminary results using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies E2-2 climate model are used to illustrate sensitivities to certain methodological choices.

Environmental sciences↗