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This presentation describes the evolution of travel modes along with an account of emerging transportation technologies, with an aim to highlight the key research questions and data gaps to study the mobility and energy impacts of emerging modes.
This presentation outlines the impacts of the pandemic on passenger as well as freight movement, and poses key research questions and data gaps for studying the short-, and long-term impacts of the pandemic on aspects such as telework, long-distance travel, and re-envisioned urban spaces.
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Measures of simulation model complexity generally focus on outputs; we propose measuring the complexity of a model’s causal structure to gain insight into its fundamental character. This article introduces tools for measuring causal complexity. First, we introduce a method for developing a model’s causal structure diagram, which characterises the causal interactions present in the code. Causal structure diagrams facilitate comparison of simulation models, including those from different paradigms. Next, we develop metrics for evaluating a model’s causal complexity using its causal structure diagram. We discuss cyclomatic complexity as a measure of the intricacy of causal structure and introduce two new metrics that incorporate the concept of feedback, a fundamental component of causal structure. The first new metric introduced here is feedback density, a measure of the cycle-based interconnectedness of causal structure. The second metric combines cyclomatic complexity and feedback density into a comprehensive causal complexity measure. Finally, we demonstrate these complexity metrics on simulation models from multiple paradigms and discuss potential uses and interpretations. These tools enable direct comparison of models across paradigms and provide a mechanism for measuring and discussing complexity based on a model’s fundamental assumptions and design.
Abstract Wind gusts, and in particular intense gusts, are societally relevant but extremely challenging to forecast. This study systematically assesses the skill enhancement that can be achieved using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for forecasting of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. Geophysical predictors from the ERA5 reanalysis are used in conjunction with an autoregressive term in regression and ANN models with different predictors, and varying model complexity. Models are derived and assessed for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons for three high passenger volume airports in the United States. Model uncertainty is assessed by deriving models for 1000 different randomly selected training (70%) and testing (30%) subsets. Gust prediction fidelity in independent test samples is critically dependent on inclusion of an autoregressive term. Gust occurrence probabilities derived using five-layer ANNs exhibit consistently higher fidelity than those from regression models and shallower ANNs. Inclusion of the autoregressive term and increasing the number of hidden layers in ANNs from 1 to 5 also improve the model performance for gust magnitudes (lower RMSE, increased correlation, and model standard deviations that more closely approximate observed values). Deeper ANNs (e.g., 20 hidden layers) exhibit higher skill in forecasting strong (17–25.7 m s −1 ) and damaging (≥25.7 m s −1 ) wind gusts. However, such deep networks exhibit evidence of overfitting and still substantially underestimate (by 50%) the frequency of strong and damaging wind gusts at the three airports considered herein. Significance Statement Improved short-term forecasting of wind gusts will enhance aviation safety and logistics and may offer other societal benefits. Here we present a rigorous investigation of the relative skill of models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude that employ different statistical methods. It is shown that artificial neural networks (ANNs) offer considerable skill enhancement over regression methods, particularly for strong and damaging wind gusts. For wind gust magnitudes in particular, application of deeper learning networks (e.g., five or more hidden layers) offers tangible improvements in forecast accuracy. However, deeper networks are vulnerable to overfitting and exhibit substantial variability with the specific training and testing data subset used. Also, even deep ANNs reproduce only half of strong and damaging wind gusts. These results indicate the need for future work to elucidate the dynamical mechanisms of intense wind gusts and advance solutions to their prediction.
Abstract Eclipse mapping is a technique for inferring 2D brightness maps of transiting exoplanets from the shape of an eclipse light curve. With JWST’s unmatched precision, eclipse mapping is now possible for a large number of exoplanets. However, eclipse mapping has only been applied to two planets, and the nuances of fitting eclipse maps are not yet fully understood. Here, we use Leave-one-out Cross Validation (LOO-CV) to investigate eclipse mapping, with application to a JWST NIRISS/SOSS observation of the ultrahot Jupiter WASP-18b. LOO-CV is a technique that provides insight into the out-of-sample predictive power of models on a data-point-by-data-point basis. We show that constraints on planetary brightness patterns behave as expected, with large-scale variations driven by the phase-curve variation in the light curve and smaller-scale structures constrained by the eclipse ingress and egress. For WASP-18b we show that the need for higher model complexity (smaller-scale features) is driven exclusively by the shape of the eclipse ingress and egress. We use LOO-CV to investigate the relationship between planetary brightness map components when mapping under a positive-flux constraint to better understand the need for complex models. Finally, we use LOO-CV to understand the degeneracy between the competing “hot spot” and “plateau” brightness map models of WASP-18b, showing that the plateau model is driven by the ingress shape and the hot spot model is driven by the egress shape, but preference for neither model is due to outliers or unmodeled signals. Based on this analysis, we make recommendations for the use of LOO-CV in future eclipse-mapping studies.
Modeling a full system or a complete interface between systems in a MBSE environment is a very large task and not all organizations will benefit enough from using MBSE to offset the effort that is required to do this. Completely modeling a system or interface is not necessary to evaluate the utility of MBSE for a specific application or organization. A small pilot can be executed over a short period of time that only models small portions of a system or interface and, if structured properly, this pilot can successfully demonstrate the utility of MBSE for an organization before having to invest a larger amount of resources to fully implement and deploy MBSE. This paper documents one such pilot that was conducted for NASA’s Launch Services Program.
Modeling a full system or a complete interface between systems in a MBSE environment is a very large task and not all organizations will benefit enough from using MBSE to offset the effort that is required to do this. Completely modeling a system or interface is not necessary to evaluate the utility of MBSE for a specific application or organization. A small pilot can be executed over a short period of time that only models small portions of a system or interface and, if structured properly, this pilot can successfully demonstrate the utility of MBSE for an organization before having to invest a larger amount of resources to fully implement and deploy MBSE. This paper documents one such pilot that was conducted for NASA's Launch Services Program.
Modeling a full system or a complete interface between systems in a MBSE environment is a very large task and not all organizations will benefit enough from using MBSE to offset the effort that is required to do this. Completely modeling a system or interface is not necessary to evaluate the utility of MBSE for a specific application or organization. A small pilot can be executed over a short period of time that only models small portions of a system or interface and, if structured properly, this pilot can successfully demonstrate the utility of MBSE for an organization before having to invest a larger amount of resources to fully implement and deploy MBSE. This paper documents one such pilot that was conducted for NASA's Launch Services Program.
Cost models for complex space programs, analyzing data acquisition systems, computer routines, etc
Anionic molecular models for nonhydrolyzed and partially hydrolyzed aluminum and gallium framework sites on silica, M[OSi(OtBu) 3 ] 4 - and HOM[OSi(OtBu) 3 ] 3 - (where M=Al or Ga), were synthesized from anionic chlorides Li{M[OSi(OtBu) 3 ] 3 Cl} in salt metathesis reactions. Sequestration of lithium cations with [12]crown-4 afforded charge-separated ion pairs composed of monomeric anions M[OSi(OtBu) 3 ] 4 - with outer-sphere [([12]crown-4) 2 Li] + cations, and hydroxides {HOM[OSi(OtBu) 3 ] 3 } with pendant [([12]crown-4)Li] + cations. These molecular models were characterized by single-crystal X-ray diffraction, vibrational spectroscopy, mass spectrometry and NMR spectroscopy. Upon treatment of monomeric [([12]crown-4)Li]{HOM[OSi(OtBu) 3 ] 3 } complexes with benzyl alcohol, benzyloxide complexes were formed, modeling a possible pathway for the formation of active sites for Meerwin-Ponndorf-Verley (MPV) transfer hydrogenations with Al/Ga-doped silica catalysts.
Encapsulated complexes have potential as model heterogeneous catalysts for gap-phase reactions.
Distributed parameter modeling of structural dynamics has been limited to simple spacecraft configurations because of the difficulty of handling several distributed parameter systems linked at their boundaries. Although there is other computer software able to generate such models or complex, flexible spacecraft, unfortunately, neither is suitable for parameter estimation. Because of this limitation the computer software PDEMOD is being developed for the express purposes of modeling, control system analysis, parameter estimation and structure optimization. PDEMOD is capable of modeling complex, flexible spacecraft which consist of a three-dimensional network of flexible beams and rigid bodies. Each beam has bending (Bernoulli-Euler or Timoshenko) in two directions, torsion, and elongation degrees of freedom. The rigid bodies can be attached to the beam ends at any angle or body location. PDEMOD is also capable of performing parameter estimation based on matching experimental modal frequencies and static deflection test data. The underlying formulation and the results of using this approach for test data of the Mini-MAST truss will be discussed. The resulting accuracy of the parameter estimates when using such limited data can impact significantly the instrumentation requirements for on-orbit tests.
Complex deep learning models trained on very large datasets have become key enabling tools for current research in natural language processing and computer vision. By providing pre-trained models that can be fine-tuned for specific applications, they enable researchers to create accurate models with minimal effort and computational resources. Large scale genomics deep learning models come in two flavors: the first are large language models of DNA sequences trained in a self-supervised fashion, similar to the corresponding natural language models; the second are supervised learning models that leverage large scale genomics datasets from ENCODE and other sources. We argue that these models are the equivalent of foundation models in natural language processing in their utility, as they encode within them chromatin state in its different aspects, providing useful representations that allow quick deployment of accurate models of gene regulation. We demonstrate this premise by leveraging the recently created Sei model to develop simple, interpretable models of intron retention, and demonstrate their advantage over models based on the DNA language model DNABERT-2. Our work also demonstrates the impact of chromatin state on the regulation of intron retention. Using representations learned by Sei, our model is able to discover the involvement of transcription factors and chromatin marks in regulating intron retention, providing better accuracy than a recently published custom model developed for this purpose.
Simulation of complex dynamical systems arising in many applications is computationally challenging due to their size and complexity. Model order reduction, machine learning, and other types of surrogate modeling techniques offer cheaper and simpler ways to describe the dynamics of these systems but are inexact and introduce additional approximation errors. In order to overcome the computational difficulties of the full complex models, on one hand, and the limitations of surrogate models, on the other, this work proposes a new accelerated time-stepping strategy that combines information from both. This approach is based on the multirate infinitesimal general-structure additive Runge--Kutta framework. The inexpensive surrogate model is integrated with a small time step to guide the solution trajectory, and the full model is treated with a large time step to occasionally correct for the surrogate model error and ensure convergence. Here, we provide a theoretical error analysis, and several numerical experiments, to show that this approach can be significantly more efficient than using only the full or only the surrogate model for the integration.
Time- and rate-dependent material functions in non-Newtonian fluids in response to different deformation fields pose a challenge in integrating different constitutive models into conventional computational fluid dynamic platforms. Considering their relevance in many industrial and natural settings alike, robust data-driven frameworks that enable accurate modeling of these complex fluids are of great interest. The main goal is to solve the coupled Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) consisting of the constitutive equations that relate the shear stress to the deformation and fully capture the behavior of the fluid under various flow protocols with different boundary conditions. Here, in this work, we present non-Newtonian physics-informed neural networks (nn-PINNs) for solving systems of coupled PDEs adopted for complex fluid flow modeling. The proposed nn-PINN method is employed to solve the constitutive models in conjunction with conservation of mass and momentum by benefiting from Automatic Differentiation (AD) in neural networks, hence avoiding the mesh generation step. nn-PINNs are tested for a number of different complex fluids with different constitutive models and for several flow protocols. These include a range of Generalized Newtonian Fluid (GNF) empirical constitutive models, as well as some phenomenological models with memory effects and thixotropic timescales. nn-PINNs are found to obtain the correct solution of complex fluids in spatiotemporal domains with good accuracy compared to the ground truth solution. We also present applications of nn-PINNs for complex fluid modeling problems with unknown boundary conditions on the surface, and show that our approach can successfully recover the velocity and stress fields across the domain, including the boundaries, given some sparse velocity measurements.
Complex numerical weather prediction models incorporate a variety of physical processes, each described by multiple alternative physical schemes with specific parameters. The selection of the physical schemes and the choice of the corresponding physical parameters during model configuration can significantly impact the accuracy of model forecasts. There is no combination of physical schemes that works best for all times, at all locations, and under all conditions. It is therefore of considerable interest to understand the interplay between the choice of physics and the accuracy of the resulting forecasts under different conditions. This paper demonstrates the use of machine learning techniques to study the uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models due to the interaction of multiple physical processes. The first problem addressed herein is the estimation of systematic model errors in output quantities of interest at future times, and the use of this information to improve the model forecasts. The second problem considered is the identification of those specific physical processes that contribute most to the forecast uncertainty in the quantity of interest under specified meteorological conditions. In order to address these questions we employ two machine learning approaches, random forests and artificial neural networks. The discrepancies between model results and observations at past times are used to learn the relationships between the choice of physical processes and the resulting forecast errors. Numerical experiments are carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The output quantity of interest is the model precipitation, a variable that is both extremely important and very challenging to forecast. The physical processes under consideration include various micro-physics schemes, cumulus parameterizations, short wave, and long wave radiation schemes. The experiments demonstrate the strong potential of machine learning approaches to aid the study of model errors.
The turbulence models available for the prediction of complex turbulent shear layers are reviewed in this paper, concentrating mainly on three-dimensional flows, flows subjected to curvature and body rotation, separated flows, and vortex flows. A critical review of zero-equation, one-equation, two-equation, algebraic Reynolds stress, and full Reynolds stress models are carried out, with a specific emphasis on their applicability to complex flows. It is concluded that algebraic eddy viscosity models and kappa-epsilon/kappa-omega models, with a constant value of coefficients, are not adequate for complex flows. The models which include a description of stresses, either through an algebraic Reynolds stress model or a full Reynolds stress model, are essential for adequate prediction of these flows. It is recommended that systematic experimental investigations be carried out to isolate various complex interactions in order to understand and model the various effects and to carry out an extension of the present models to include complex flows.