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At least 73 records · Page 4

A Statistical Comparison of PSC Model Simulations and POAM Observations

A better knowledge of PSC composition and formation mechanisms is important to better understand and predict stratospheric ozone depletion. Several past studies have attempted to compare modeling results with satellite observations. These comparisons have concentrated on case studies. In this paper we adopt a statistical approach. POAM PSC observations from several Arctic winters are categorized into Type Ia and Ib PSCs using a technique based on Strawa et al. The discrimination technique has been modified to employ the wavelengths dependence of the extinction signal at all wavelengths rather than only at 603 and 10 18 nm. Winter-long simulations for the 1999-2000 Arctic winter have been made using the IMPACT model. These simulations have been constrained by aircraft observations made during the SOLVE/THESEO 2000 campaign. A complete set of winter-long simulations was run for several different microphysical and PSC formation scenarios. The simulations give us perfect knowledge of PSC type (Ia, Ib, or II), composition, especially condensed phase HNO3 which is important for denitrification, and condensed phase H2O. Comparisons are made between the simulation and observation of PSC extinction at 1018 rim versus wavelength dependence, winter-long percentages of Ia and Ib occurrence, and temporal and altitude trends of the PSCs. These comparisons allow us to comment on how realistic some modeling scenarios are.

Strawa, A. W.↗

Stratospheric processes: Observations and interpretation

Explaining the observed ozone trends discussed in an earlier update and predicting future trends requires an understanding of the stratospheric processes that affect ozone. Stratospheric processes occur on both large and small spatial scales and over both long and short periods of time. Because these diverse processes interact with each other, only in rare cases can individual processes be studied by direct observation. Generally the cause and effect relationships for ozone changes were established by comparisons between observations and model simulations. Increasingly, these comparisons rely on the developing, observed relationships among trace gases and dynamical quantities to initialize and constrain the simulations. The goal of this discussion of stratospheric processes is to describe the causes for the observed ozone trends as they are currently understood. At present, we understand with considerable confidence the stratospheric processes responsible for the Antarctic ozone hole but are only beginning to understand the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes. Even though the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes were not clearly determined, it is likely that they, just as those over Antarctica, involved chlorine and bromine chemistry that was enhanced by heterogeneous processes. This discussion generally presents only an update of the observations that have occurred for stratospheric processes since the last assessment (World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1990), and is not a complete review of all the new information about stratospheric processes. It begins with an update of the previous assessment of polar stratospheres (WMO, 1990), followed by a discussion on the possible causes for the ozone trends at middle latitudes and on the effects of bromine and of volcanoes.

Brune, William H.↗

Magnetospheric substorm models - Comparison with neutral sheet magnetic field observations

Four models for geomagnetic substorms, a quiet tail model, and models incorporating structural effects of the tail are examined for consistency with magnetic-field data during satellite crossings of the tail neutral sheet/plasma sheet. For this data the tearing mode instability model is always consistent, and inward moving distant neutral line is sometimes consistent, quasi-steady reconnection with slow shock and intermediate wave structure and locally quiet tail rarely consistent, and an outward propagating rarefaction wave is never consistent with the magnetic observations. In several cases structural effects of the tail are consistent with key features of the magnetic signatures.

Speiser, T. W.↗

Interplanetary flux enhancements - Comparison with cometary models and observations

Interplanetary field enhancements (IFE's) are unusual nearly symmetric increases in the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field lasting tens of minutes to hours. Examples of interplanetary field enhancements are compared with MHD models and with the data obtained by the ICE spacecraft at Giacobini-Zinner. These comparisons suggest that the varying properties of IFE's are due to the fact that some events are due to passages in front of the nucleus, others in the near tail and yet others in the distant tail.

Russell, C. T.↗

A Comparison Between Gravity Wave Momentum Fluxes in Observations and Climate Models

For the first time, a formal comparison is made between gravity wave momentum fluxes in models and those derived from observations. Although gravity waves occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, the focus of this paper is on scales that are being parameterized in present climate models, sub-1000-km scales. Only observational methods that permit derivation of gravity wave momentum fluxes over large geographical areas are discussed, and these are from satellite temperature measurements, constant-density long-duration balloons, and high-vertical-resolution radiosonde data. The models discussed include two high-resolution models in which gravity waves are explicitly modeled, Kanto and the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), and three climate models containing gravity wave parameterizations,MAECHAM5, Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model 3 (HadGEM3), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) model. Measurements generally show similar flux magnitudes as in models, except that the fluxes derived from satellite measurements fall off more rapidly with height. This is likely due to limitations on the observable range of wavelengths, although other factors may contribute. When one accounts for this more rapid fall off, the geographical distribution of the fluxes from observations and models compare reasonably well, except for certain features that depend on the specification of the nonorographic gravity wave source functions in the climate models. For instance, both the observed fluxes and those in the high-resolution models are very small at summer high latitudes, but this is not the case for some of the climate models. This comparison between gravity wave fluxes from climate models, high-resolution models, and fluxes derived from observations indicates that such efforts offer a promising path toward improving specifications of gravity wave sources in climate models.

mathematical models↗

Evaluating the Capacity of Global CO2 Flux and Atmospheric Transport Models to Incorporate New Satellite Observations

As we enter the new era of satellite remote sensing for CO2 and other carbon cyclerelated quantities, advanced modeling and analysis capabilities are required to fully capitalize on the new observations. Model estimates of CO2 surface flux and atmospheric transport are required for initial constraints on inverse analyses, to connect atmospheric observations to the location of surface sources and sinks, and ultimately for future projections of carbon-climate interactions. For application to current, planned, and future remotely sensed CO2 data, it is desirable that these models are accurate and unbiased at time scales from less than daily to multi-annual and at spatial scales from several kilometers or finer to global. Here we focus on simulated CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and atmospheric transport mutually constrained by analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office for the period 1998 through 2006. Use of assimilated meteorological data enables direct model comparison to observations across a wide range of scales of variability. The biospheric fluxes are produced by the CASA model at lxi degrees on a monthly mean basis, modulated hourly with analyzed temperature and sunlight. Both physiological and biomass burning fluxes are derived using satellite observations of vegetation, burned area (as in GFED-2), and analyzed meteorology. For the purposes of comparison to CO2 data, fossil fuel and ocean fluxes are also included in the transport simulations. In this presentation we evaluate the model's ability to simulate CO2 flux and mixing ratio variability in comparison to in situ observations at sites in Northern mid latitudes and the continental tropics. The influence of key process representations is inferred. We find that the model can resolve much of the hourly to synoptic variability in the observations, although there are limits imposed by vertical resolution of boundary layer processes. The seasonal cycle and its interannual variations generally respond adequately, but discrepancies in the tropics suggest the need for a refinement of the soil moisture dependence of the respiration flux in CASA. Examples and inferences for interpretation of satellite data will be discussed. In general, the fidelity of these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of real-time, highly resolved remote sensing and other observations into quantitative analyses that will reduce uncertainty in the terrestrial CO2 sink and revolutionize our understanding of the key processes controlling atmospheric CO2 and its evolution with time.

Kawa, S. R.↗

Saturn's Magnetosphere Interaction with Titan for T9 Encounter: 3D Hybrid Modeling and Comparison with CAPS Observations

Global dynamics of ionized and neutral gases in the environment of Titan plays an important role in the interaction of Saturn s magnetosphere with Titan. Several hybrid simulations of this problem have already been done (Brecht et al., 2000; Kallio et al., 2004; Modolo et al., 2007a; Simon et al., 2007a, 2007b; Modolo and Chanteur, 2008). Observational data from CAPS for the T9 encounter (Sittler et al., 2009) indicates an absence of O(+) heavy ions in the upstream that change the models of interaction which were discussed in current publications (Kallio et al., 2004; Modolo et al., 2007a; Simon et al., 2007a, 2007b; Ma et al., 2007; Szego et al., 2007). Further analysis of the CAPS data shows very low density or even an absence of H(+) ions in upstream. In this paper we discuss two models of the interaction of Saturn s magnetosphere with Titan: (A) high density of H(+) ions in the upstream flow (0.1/cu cm), and (B) low density of H(+) ions in the upstream flow (0.02/cu cm). The hybrid model employs a fluid description for electrons and neutrals, whereas a particle approach is used for ions. We also take into account charge-exchange and photoionization processes and solve self-consistently for electric and magnetic fields. The model atmosphere includes exospheric H(+), H(2+), N(2+)and CH(4+) pickup ion production as well as an immobile background ionosphere and a shell distribution for active ionospheric ions (M(sub i)=28 amu). The hybrid model allows us to account for the realistic anisotropic ion velocity distribution that cannot be done in fluid simulations with isotropic temperatures. Our simulation shows an asymmetry of the ion density distribution and the magnetic field, including the formation of Alfven wing-like structures. The results of the ion dynamics in Titan s environment are compared with Cassini T9 encounter data (CAPS).

Lipatov, A. S.↗

The simulation of the seasonal cycle of the Southern Hemispheric circulation by the GLAS Seasonal Cycle Model and a comparison to observations

The general circulation of the Southern Hemisphere is quite different from that of the Northern Hemisphere in many important ways. These include the barotropic nature of the stationary waves and the presence of a strong barotropic component to the mean zonal wind, the lack of a strong seasonal dependence of the transient eddies, and the dominant role played by eddies with periods less than 10 days compared to longer period fluctuations. Such differences attest to the importance of the altered nature of the orographic and thermal land-sea forcings in the Southern Hemisphere compared to the Northern Hemisphere. Some of the important features of the Southern Hemisphere circulation as simulated by the GLAS Seasonal Cycle Model (SCM) are presented. The geographical patterns of local variability and their seasonal shifts in the SCM are discussed and compared to observations.

Straus, D. M.↗

Toroidal wave frequency at L=6-10: AMPTE/CCE Observations and Comparison with Theoretical Model

Magnetospheric standing Alfven waves are guided along the ambient magnetic field and their frequency depends on the mass density of the plasma distributed along the field lines. These properties allow us to use Alfen waves to map time-dependent phenomena between space and ground and to estimate the mass density. In this paper we present a statistical study of the spatial variation of the fundamental frequency f(sub T1) of toroidal-mode standing Alfen waves in the L range from 6 to 10, where L indicates the maximum geocentric distance on the field line. The data used for this analysis are energetic particle flux anisotropy (proxy of transverse electric field) and magnetic field measurements from the Active Magnetospheric Particle Tracer Explorers Charge Composition Explorer (CCE) spacecraft. Using CCE data covering 4 years we obtained approximately 5000 20-min intervals containing a clear signature of toroidal waves. The median f(sub T1), is 6-10 mHz at L=7 and decreases to 4-8 mHz at L = . The frequency tends to be lower at noon than at midnight. The observed frequencies are compared with numerically derived frequencies using an empirical mass density model and a magnetic field model. We found a good agreement for 12-24 MLT but a large discrepancy near MLT= 3. This may indicate that the flux tubes at this local time are more heavily loaded than specified in the Gallagher et al. model.

Takahashi, Kazue↗

Wind streaks on Mars: Comparisons of production models with observations of bright streaks

To investigate the influence of crater size on martian wind streaks, the characteristics of bright streaks associated with craters ranging from approximately 100 m to 80 km in diameter were analyzed in several regions. The ratio of streak length to obstacle height (L/h) could be diagnostic of the relative effectiveness of different sized obstacles in disturbing near surface atmospheric flow; since the crater rim height to diameter relationship has not previously been determined for Mars, the rim heights of numerous craters were estimated from shadow measurements. In all areas studied, bright streak L/h values decrease with increasing h, indicating that smaller obstacles produce longer streaks relative to their height than do larger obstacles. Several models of bright streak production are used to explain this behavior are discussed.

Lee, S. W.↗

Thermal tides in the atmosphere of Venus - Comparison of model results with observations

A linearized primitive equation model adapted to Venusian conditions was used to study thermal tidal anomalies in the Venus atmosphere exposed by Venus Orbiter IR sensors. The model received as input the IR data, mean zonal wind and solar input as functions of height and latitude, and the global mean static stability and Newtonian cooling and Rayleigh friction in relation to altitude. Basic state and forcing functions were defined for Venus, and the model generated brightness temperatures which could be compared with the IR data. The good correlations obtained suggest that the model accurately accounts for the low variation of phase with altitude and stronger semidiurnal oscillation features than diurnal oscillations. The model is concluded as a useful tool for assessing the role of thermal tides in maintaining Venus super rotation.

Pechmann, J. B.↗

Nightside plasmapause positions observed by DE-1 as a function of geomagnetic indices - Comparison with whistler observations and model calculations

The paper analyzes 28 plasmapause crossings made by the DE1 satellite in the night local time sector (from January to March 1982). Different signatures obtained by the Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer instrument have been used for this analysis. The observed plasmapause positions (Lpp) have been organized as a function of geomagnetic indices. They are compared with the empirical relationship deduced by Carpenter and Parks (1973) from whistler observations. Moreover, the dependence of Lpp versus Kp has been inferred from model calculations using Kp dependent electric and magnetic fields derived from McIlwain's (1974) E3H electric field model and M2 magnetic field model respectively. Stationary models as well as time dependent ones, have been used to determine the positions of the plasmapause. The results of the model calculations are compared to the observations.

Decreau, P. M. E.↗

Temporal and vertical distribution of acidity and ionic composition in clouds - Comparison between modeling results and observations

Cyclic temporal variations of pH and ionic concentration in sampled clouds which traversed the Mt. Mitchell State Park (North Carolina) site during the summers of 1986, 1987, and 1988 are reported. These clouds typically had a measured pH minimum during their initial and final stages. The cause of this basic cylic pattern is attributed to sampling at different vertical levels of the cloud. This is substantiated by visual observations made while sampling. The results also suggest that the measured pH patterns do not always exhibit minima during the formative and dissipative stages of the cloud, apparently in response to the underlying dynamical processes. The relationship between temporal pH measurements made at a stationary site to vertical cloud levels provides insights into the physical processes (e.g., nucleation scavenging near cloud base, dry air entrainment near cloud top) influencing the observed cloud-water chemistry on a real-time basis and would improve cloud chemistry models.

Defelice, T. P.↗

A comparison of observed (HALOE) and modeled (CCM2) methane and stratospheric water vapor

Recent measurements (21 September-15 October 1992) of methane and water vapor by the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) are compared with model results for the same season from a troposphere-middle atmosphere version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM2). Several important features of the two constituent fields are well reproduced by the CCM2, despite the use of simplified methane photochemistry in the CCM2 and some notable differences between the model's zonal mean circulation and climatology. Observed features simulated by the model include the following: 1) subsidence over a deep layer in the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex; 2) widespread dehydration in the polar vortex; and 3) existence of a region of low water vapor mixing ratios extending from the Antarctic into the Northern Hemisphere tropics, which suggests that Antarctic dehydration contributes to midlatitude and tropical dryness in the stratosphere.

Mote, Philip W.↗

A Composite View of Ozone Evolution in the 1995-96 Northern Winter Polar Vortex Developed from Airborne Lidar and Satellite Observations

The processes which contribute to the ozone evolution in the high latitude lower stratosphere are evaluated using a three dimensional model simulation and ozone observations. The model uses winds and temperatures from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System. The simulation results are compared with ozone observations from three platforms: the differential absorption lidar (DIAL) which was flown on the NASA DC-8 as part of the Vortex Ozone Transport Experiment; the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite; and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM II) solar occulation instrument, on board the French Satellite Pour I'Observations de la Terre. Comparisons of the different data sets with the model simulation are shown to provide complementary information and a consistent view of the ozone evolution. The model ozone in December and January is shown to be sensitive to the ozone vertical gradient and the model vertical transport, and only weakly sensitive to the model photochemistry. The most consistent comparison between observed and modeled ozone evolution is found for a simulation where the vertical profiles between 12 and 20 km within the polar vortex closely match December DIAL observations. Diabatic trajectory calculations are used to estimate the uncertainty due to vertical advection quantitatively. The transport uncertainty is significant, and should be accounted for when comparing observations with model ozone. The model ozone evolution during December and January is broadly consistent with the observations when these transport uncertainties are taken into account.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

Use of A-Train Aerosol Observations to Constrain Direct Aerosol Radiative Effects (DARE) Comparisons with Aerocom Models and Uncertainty Assessments

We describe a technique for combining multiple A-Train aerosol data sets, namely MODIS spectral AOD (aerosol optical depth), OMI AAOD (absorption aerosol optical depth) and CALIOP aerosol backscatter retrievals (hereafter referred to as MOC retrievals) to estimate full spectral sets of aerosol radiative properties, and ultimately to calculate the 3-D distribution of direct aerosol radiative effects (DARE). We present MOC results using almost two years of data collected in 2007 and 2008, and show comparisons of the aerosol radiative property estimates to collocated AERONET retrievals. Use of the MODIS Collection 6 AOD data derived with the dark target and deep blue algorithms has extended the coverage of the MOC retrievals towards higher latitudes. The MOC aerosol retrievals agree better with AERONET in terms of the single scattering albedo (ssa) at 441 nm than ssa calculated from OMI and MODIS data alone, indicating that CALIOP aerosol backscatter data contains information on aerosol absorption. We compare the spatio-temporal distribution of the MOC retrievals and MOC-based calculations of seasonal clear-sky DARE to values derived from four models that participated in the Phase II AeroCom model intercomparison initiative. Overall, the MOC-based calculations of clear-sky DARE at TOA over land are smaller (less negative) than previous model or observational estimates due to the inclusion of more absorbing aerosol retrievals over brighter surfaces, not previously available for observationally-based estimates of DARE. MOC-based DARE estimates at the surface over land and total (land and ocean) DARE estimates at TOA are in between previous model and observational results. Comparisons of seasonal aerosol property to AeroCom Phase II results show generally good agreement best agreement with forcing results at TOA is found with GMI-MerraV3. We discuss sampling issues that affect the comparisons and the major challenges in extending our clear-sky DARE results to all-sky conditions. We present estimates of clear-sky and all-sky DARE and show uncertainties that stem from the assumptions in the spatial extrapolation and accuracy of aerosol and cloud properties, in the diurnal evolution of these properties, and in the radiative transfer calculations.

aerosol↗

Three-dimensional analytical model for the spatial variation of the foreshock electron distribution function - Systematics and comparisons with ISEE observations

A model which is consistent with the solar wind and shock surface boundary conditions for the foreshock electron distribution in the absence of wave-particle effects is formulated for an arbitrary location behind the magnetic tangent to the earth's bow shock. Variations of the gyrophase-averaged velocity distribution are compared and contrasted with in situ ISEE observations. It is found that magnetic mirroring of solar wind electrons is the most important process by which nonmonotonic reduced electron distributions in the foreshock are produced. Leakage of particles from the magnetosheath is shown to be relatively unimportant in determining reduced distributions that are nonmonotonic. The two-dimensional distribution function off the magnetic field direction is the crucial contribution in producing reduced distributions which have beams. The time scale for modification of the electron velocity distribution in velocity space can be significantly influenced by steady state spatial gradients in the background imposed by the curved shock geometry.

Fitzenreiter, R. J.↗

Prediction of large North-South IMF component events occurring in driver gas

An approach for identifying a driver gas-associated Bz event and its solar source is introduced. Seven newly identified events are used to further test the model developed by Hoeksema and Zhao (1991) for prediction of the magnetic orientation of some driver gas-associated Bz events from photospheric field observations. Comparison of the model predictions with observations confirms that the model may be appropriate only for driver gas-associated Bz events which have magnetic structures lacking large internal field rotation and are associated with active region-CMEs.

Zhao, X.↗