Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “model selection”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

Hybrid Systems Diagnosis

This paper reports on an on-going Project to investigate techniques to diagnose complex dynamical systems that are modeled as hybrid systems. In particular, we examine continuous systems with embedded supervisory controllers that experience abrupt, partial or full failure of component devices. We cast the diagnosis problem as a model selection problem. To reduce the space of potential models under consideration, we exploit techniques from qualitative reasoning to conjecture an initial set of qualitative candidate diagnoses, which induce a smaller set of models. We refine these diagnoses using parameter estimation and model fitting techniques. As a motivating case study, we have examined the problem of diagnosing NASA's Sprint AERCam, a small spherical robotic camera unit with 12 thrusters that enable both linear and rotational motion.

McIlraith, Sheila↗

TEAMS Model Analyzer

The TEAMS model analyzer is a supporting tool developed to work with models created with TEAMS (Testability, Engineering, and Maintenance System), which was developed by QSI. In an effort to reduce the time spent in the manual process that each TEAMS modeler must perform in the preparation of reporting for model reviews, a new tool has been developed as an aid to models developed in TEAMS. The software allows for the viewing, reporting, and checking of TEAMS models that are checked into the TEAMS model database. The software allows the user to selectively model in a hierarchical tree outline view that displays the components, failure modes, and ports. The reporting features allow the user to quickly gather statistics about the model, and generate an input/output report pertaining to all of the components. Rules can be automatically validated against the model, with a report generated containing resulting inconsistencies. In addition to reducing manual effort, this software also provides an automated process framework for the Verification and Validation (V&V) effort that will follow development of these models. The aid of such an automated tool would have a significant impact on the V&V process.

Tijidjian, Raffi P.↗

Sensitivity of the Assimilated Ozone in the UTLS to Model and Data Selection Changes

This presentation will discuss the sensitivity of assimilated ozone fields in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) to a number of factors, focusing mainly on aspects of data selection and the prediction model. This is important, because assimilation represents an attempt to construct our best estimates of the true ozone field; however, inaccuracies in the UTLS ozone distribution translate into an uncertainty in factors such as the calculated radiative forcing of climate or the inferred stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) of ozone. The 3D ozone data assimilation system, from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), combines observations of total ozone column and stratospheric profiles with predictions from an off-line, parameterized chemistry and transport model (pCTM) to produce six-hourly, global analyses. The first experiments discussed assimilate ozone retrievals from the Earth-Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EPTOMS) and stratospheric profiles from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument. The SBUV/2 ozone data have a coarse vertical resolution, with increased uncertainty below the ozone maximum, and TOMS provides only total ozone columns. Thus, the assimilated ozone profiles in the UTLS region are only weakly constrained by the incoming SBUV and TOMS data. Consequently, the assimilated ozone distribution should be sensitive to changes in inputs to the statistical analysis scheme. Sensitivity studies have been conducted to examine the responses to TOMS and SBUV/2 data selection, modifications of the forecast and observation error covariance models, and the model formulation (turning off chemistry or using different wind analyses in the pCTM). The second set of experiments includes an additional data type: ozone retrieved from infrared limb-emission by MIPAS on Envisat. These data offer not only improved vertical resolution in the stratosphere, but also give measurements in the polar night. Comparisons of the assimilated ozone fields from both sets of experiments with independent observations, primarily ozone sondes, are used to determine the impact of each of these changes. It is shown that many of the changes have a significant impact on the UTLS ozone estimates. Implications for interpretation of STE and radiative forcing of climate are discussed.

Pawson, Steven↗

Computational modeling of multispectral remote sensing systems: Background investigations

A computational model of the deterministic and stochastic process of remote sensing has been developed based upon the results of the investigations presented. The model is used in studying concepts for improving worldwide environment and resource monitoring. A review of various atmospheric radiative transfer models is presented as well as details of the selected model. Functional forms for spectral diffuse reflectance with variability introduced are also presented. A cloud detection algorithm and the stochastic nature of remote sensing data with its implications are considered.

Aherron, R. M.↗

Project trades model for complex space missions

A Project Trades Model (PTM) is a collection of tools/simulations linked together to rapidly perform integrated system trade studies of performance, cost, risk, and mission effectiveness. An operating PTM captures the interactions between various targeted systems and subsystems through an exchange of computed variables of the constituent models. Selection and implementation of the order, method of interaction, model type, and envisioned operation of the ensemble of tools rpresents the key system engineering challenge of the approach. This paper describes an approach to building a PTM and using it to perform top-level system trades for a complex space mission. In particular, the PTM discussed here is for a future Mars mission involving a large rover.

web services↗

Parameter Estimation for Compact Binary Coalescence Signals with the First Generation Gravitational-Wave Detector Network

Compact binary systems with neutron stars or black holes are one of the most promising sources for ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. Gravitational radiation encodes rich information about source physics; thus parameter estimation and model selection are crucial analysis steps for any detection candidate events. Detailed models of the anticipated waveforms enable inference on several parameters, such as component masses, spins, sky location and distance, that are essential for new astrophysical studies of these sources. However, accurate measurements of these parameters and discrimination of models describing the underlying physics are complicated by artifacts in the data, uncertainties in the waveform models and in the calibration of the detectors. Here we report such measurements on a selection of simulated signals added either in hardware or software to the data collected by the two LIGO instruments and the Virgo detector during their most recent joint science run, including a blind injection where the signal was not initially revealed to the collaboration. We exemplify the ability to extract information about the source physics on signals that cover the neutron-star and black-hole binary parameter space over the component mass range 1M25M and the full range of spin parameters. The cases reported in this study provide a snapshot of the status of parameter estimation in preparation for the operation of advanced detectors.

Aasi, J.↗

Calculation of atmospheric loss from microwave radiometric noise temperature measurements

Microwave propagation loss in the atmosphere can be inferred from microwave radiometric noise temperature measurements. The relevant equations are given and a derivation and calculation is made assuming various physical models. Comparison is made with the commonly used lumped element atmospheric model (isothermal and uniform loss) and the model with linear temperature and exponential loss distributions. The results are useful for estimating the integral inversion differences due to the model selection. This indicates that the commonly used lumped element atmospheric model is a very good approximation with judicious choice of the effective physical temperature. For the worst case comparison, the lumped element model agrees with the variable parameter model within 0.2 dB up to a propagation loss of 3 dB.

Stelzried, C.↗

Implementation of and Ada real-time executive: A case study

Current Ada language implementations and runtime environments are immature, unproven and are a key risk area for real-time embedded computer system (ECS). A test-case environment is provided in which the concerns of the real-time, ECS community are addressed. A priority driven executive is selected to be implemented in the Ada programming language. The model selected is representative of real-time executives tailored for embedded systems used missile, spacecraft, and avionics applications. An Ada-based design methodology is utilized, and two designs are considered. The first of these designs requires the use of vendor supplied runtime and tasking support. An alternative high-level design is also considered for an implementation requiring no vendor supplied runtime or tasking support. The former approach is carried through to implementation.

Laird, James D.↗

Selection of a model of Earth's albedo radiation, practical calculation of its effect on the trajectory of a satellite

Theoretical models of Earth's albedo radiation was proposed. By comparing disturbing accelerations computed from a model to those measured in flight with the CACTUS Accelerometer, modified according to the results. Computation of the satellite orbit perturbations from a model is very long because for each position of this satellite the fluxes coming from each elementary surface of the terrestrial portion visible from the satellite must be summed. The speed of computation is increased ten times without significant loss of accuracy thanks to a stocking of some intermediate results. Now it is possible to confront the orbit perturbations computed from the selected model with the measurements of these perturbations found with satellite as LAGEOS.

Walch, J. J.↗

Regional Replay: A Unique Reanalysis-Based Tool for Addressing Model Error

Understanding and correcting errors in general circulation and climate models has long been part intuition and part trial and error. Efforts to diagnose the errors and provide some guidance to developers have been of some value, though such efforts, with few exceptions, have been more successful in identifying and documenting the errors in the model simulations rather than the model deficiencies that produced them. Modern atmospheric reanalyses such as MERRA-2 provide much-improved estimates of our climate system at hourly to interannual and longer time scales and have become an important tool for assessing model performance. Here we use MERRA-2 to address biases in the NASA/GMAO GEOS model by employing a "regional replay" approach developed in the GMAO. The regional replay approach constrains the model to remain close to the reanalysis over arbitrary regions and selected model variables, thus allowing us to examine how model error generated over one area is spatially translated across the globe. Several examples are given including an assessment of the global impact of errors produced over the Tibet region.

Tibet Region↗

RL10A-3-3A Rocket Engine Modeling Project

Two RL10A-3-3A rocket engines comprise the main propulsion system for the Centaur upper stage vehicle. Centaur is used with bod Titan and Atlas launch vehicles, carrying military and civilian payloads from high altitudes into orbit and beyond. The RL10 has delivered highly reliable service for the past 30 years. Recently, however, there have been two in-flight failures which have refocused attention on the RL10. This heightened interest has sparked a desire for an independent RL10 modeling capability within NASA and th Air Force. Pratt & Whitney, which presently has the most detailed model of the RL10, also sees merit in having an independent model which could be used as a cross-check with their own simulations. The Space Propulsion Technology Division (SPTD) at the NASA Lewis Research Center has developed a computer model of the RL10A-3-3A. A project team was formed, consisting of experts in the areas of turbomachinery, combustion, and heat transfer. The overall goal of the project was to provide a model of the entire RL10 rocket engine for government use. In the course of the project, the major engine components have been modeled using a combination of simple correlations and detailed component analysis tools (computer codes). The results of these component analyses were verified with data provided by Pratt & Whitney. Select modeling results and test data curves were then integrated to form the RL10 engine system model The purpose of this report is to introduce the reader to the RL10 rocket engine and to describe the engine system model. The RL10 engine and its application to U.S. launch vehicles are described first, followed by a summary of the SPTD project organization, goals, and accomplishments. Simulated output from the system model are shown in comparison with test and flight data for start transient, steady state, and shut-down transient operations. Detailed descriptions of all component analyses, including those not selected for integration with the system model, are included as appendices.

Binder, Michael↗

Analysis of Present Day and Future OH and Methane Lifetime in the ACCMIP Simulations

Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present day to the future, under different climate and emissions scenarios. Present day (2000) mean tropospheric chemical lifetime derived from the ACCMIP multi-model mean is 9.8+/-1.6 yr (9.3+/-0.9 yr when only including selected models), lower than a recent observationally-based estimate, but with a similar range to previous multi-model estimates. Future model projections are based on the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and the results also exhibit a large range. Decreases in global methane lifetime of 4.5 +/- 9.1% are simulated for the scenario with lowest radiative forcing by 2100 (RCP 2.6), while increases of 8.5+/-10.4% are simulated for the scenario with highest radiative forcing (RCP 8.5). In this scenario, the key driver of the evolution of OH and methane lifetime is methane itself, since its concentration more than doubles by 2100 and it consumes much of the OH that exists in the troposphere. Stratospheric ozone recovery, which drives tropospheric OH decreases through photolysis modifications, also plays a partial role. In the other scenarios, where methane changes are less drastic, the interplay between various competing drivers leads to smaller and more diverse OH and methane lifetime responses, which are difficult to attribute. For all scenarios, regional OH changes are even more variable, with the most robust feature being the large decreases over the remote oceans in RCP8.5. Through a regression analysis, we suggest that differences in emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and in the simulation of photolysis rates may be the main factors causing the differences in simulated present day OH and methane lifetime. Diversity in predicted changes between present day and future OH was found to be associated more strongly with differences in modelled temperature and stratospheric ozone changes. Finally, through perturbation experiments we calculated an OH feedback factor (F) of 1.24 from present day conditions (1.50 from 2100 RCP8.5 conditions) and a climate feedback on methane lifetime of 0.33+-0.13 yr/K, on average. Models that did not include interactive stratospheric ozone effects on photolysis showed a stronger sensitivity to climate, as they did not account for negative effects of climate-driven stratospheric ozone recovery on tropospheric OH, which would have partly offset the overall OH/methane lifetime response to climate change.

atmospheric composition↗

Bayesian Geostatistical Modelling of PM10 and PM2.5 Surface Level Concentrations in Europe Using High-Resolution Satellite-Derived Products

Air quality monitoring across Europe is mainly based on in situ ground stations which are too sparse to accurately assess the exposure effects of air pollution for the entire continent. The demand for precise predictive modelsthat estimate gridded geophysical parameters of ambient air at high spatial resolution has rapidly grown. Here, we investigate the potential of satellite derived products to improve particulate matter (PM) estimates. Bayesiangeostatistical models addressing confounding between the spatial distribution of pollutants and remotely sensed predictors were developed to estimate yearly averages of both, fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM10) surface PM concentrations at 1 sq.km spatial resolution over 46 European countries and were compared to geostatistical, geographically weighted and land-use regression formulations. Rigorous model selection identified the Earth observation data which contribute most to pollutants' estimation. Geostatistical models outperformed the predictive ability of the frequently employed land-use regression. The resulting estimates of PM10 and PM2.5, which represent the main air quality indicators for the urban Sustainable Development Goal, indicate that in 2016, 66.2% of the European population was breathing air above the WHO Air Quality Guidelines thresholds. Our estimates are readily available to policy makers and scientists assessing the effects of long-term exposure to pollution on human and ecosystem health.

Beloconi, Anton↗

Constitutive modeling for isotropic materials (HOST)

This report presents the results of the second year of work on a problem which is part of the NASA HOST Program. Its goals are: (1) to develop and validate unified constitutive models for isotropic materials, and (2) to demonstrate their usefulness for structural analyses of hot section components of gas turbine engines. The unified models selected for development and evaluation are that of Bodner-Partom and Walker. For model evaluation purposes, a large constitutive data base is generated for a B1900 + Hf alloy by performing uniaxial tensile, creep, cyclic, stress relation, and thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) tests as well as biaxial (tension/torsion) tests under proportional and nonproportional loading over a wide range of strain rates and temperatures. Systematic approaches for evaluating material constants from a small subset of the data base are developed. Correlations of the uniaxial and biaxial tests data with the theories of Bodner-Partom and Walker are performed to establish the accuracy, range of applicability, and integability of the models. Both models are implemented in the MARC finite element computer code and used for TMF analyses. Benchmark notch round experiments are conducted and the results compared with finite-element analyses using the MARC code and the Walker model.

Lindholm, U. S.↗

Parametric identification of human operator models

The accurate and efficient identification of the human operator is still a need in human factors engineering especially concerning multivariable control. Control theoretic identification methods need to be tested with human operator models under realistic boundary conditons. The requirements and criteria for the use of parametric methods, selected models as well as the Maximum Likelihood Method and the Extended Kalman Filter are displayed. The experiments and results are comparatively discussed from the point of practical engineering.

Ninz, N. R.↗

Effects of scaled heatshield tile misalignment on Orbiter boundary-layer transition

The article addresses the problem of assessing the sensitivity of the heat transfer rate of a Space Orbiter windward surface and boundary-layer transition data to surface features, or 'roughness elements', characteristic of randomly misaligned heat shield tiles. Selected heat shield tiles were precision-formed on the surface of a 0.0175-scale Orbiter model. Selective electroless plating and selective electrochemical etching techniques were employed. Effects of roughness on the location of boundary-layer transition were markedly influenced by the wall-to-total temperature ratios, according to wind-tunnel test results.

Goodrich, W. D.↗

Status of Turbulence Modeling for Hypersonic Propulsion Flowpaths

This report provides an assessment of current turbulent flow calculation methods for hypersonic propulsion flowpaths, particularly the scramjet engine. Emphasis is placed on Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) methods, but some discussion of newer meth- ods such as Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is also provided. The report is organized by considering technical issues throughout the scramjet-powered vehicle flowpath including laminar-to-turbulent boundary layer transition, shock wave / turbulent boundary layer interactions, scalar transport modeling (specifically the significance of turbulent Prandtl and Schmidt numbers) and compressible mixing. Unit problems are primarily used to conduct the assessment. In the combustor, results from calculations of a direct connect supersonic combustion experiment are also used to address the effects of turbulence model selection and in particular settings for the turbulent Prandtl and Schmidt numbers. It is concluded that RANS turbulence modeling shortfalls are still a major limitation to the accuracy of hypersonic propulsion simulations, whether considering individual components or an overall system. Newer methods such as LES-based techniques may be promising, but are not yet at a maturity to be used routinely by the hypersonic propulsion community. The need for fundamental experiments to provide data for turbulence model development and validation is discussed.

Georgiadis, Nicholas J.↗