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At least 73 records · Page 4

A toy terrestrial carbon flow model

A generalized carbon flow model for the major terrestrial ecosystems of the world is reported. The model is a simplification of the Century model and the Forest-Biogeochemical model. Topics covered include plant production, decomposition and nutrient cycling, biomes, the utility of the carbon flow model for predicting carbon dynamics under global change, and possible applications to state-and-transition models and environmentally driven global vegetation models.

Parton, William J.↗

Assessing Uncertainties and Approximations in Solar Heating of the Climate System

In calculating solar radiation, climate models make many simplifications, in part to reduce computational cost and enable climate modeling, and in part from lack of understanding of critical atmospheric information. Whether known errors or unknown errors, the community's concern is how these could impact the modeled climate. The simplifications are well known and most have published studies evaluating them, but with individual studies it is difficult to compare. Here, we collect a wide range of such simplifications in either radiative transfer modeling or atmospheric conditions and assess potential errors within a consistent framework on climate-relevant scales. We build benchmarking capability around a solar heating code (Solar-J) that doubles as a photolysis code for chemistry and can be readily adapted to consider other errors and uncertainties. The broad classes here include: use of broad wavelength bands to integrate over spectral features; scattering approximations that alter phase function and optical depths for clouds and gases; uncertainty in ice-cloud optics; treatment of fractional cloud cover including overlap; and variability of ocean surface albedo. We geographically map the errors in W m -2 using a full climate re-creation for January 2015 from a weather forecasting model. For many approximations assessed here, mean errors are ~2 W m -2 with greater latitudinal biases and are likely to affect a model’s ability to match the current climate state. Combining this work with previous studies, we make priority recommendations for fixing these simplifications based on both the magnitude of error and the ease or computational cost of the fix.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Thermal Model Performance for the James Webb Space Telescope OTIS Cryo-Vacuum Test

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), set to launch in mid-2020, is currently undergoing a series of system-level environmental tests to verify its workmanship and end-to-end functionality. As part of this series, the Optical Telescope Element and Integrated Science Instrument Module (OTIS) Cryo-Vacuum (CV) test, the most complex cryogenic test executed to date by NASA, has recently been completed at the Johnson Space Center's Chamber A facility. The OTIS CV test was intended as a comprehensive test of the integrated instrument and telescope systems to fully understand its optical, structural, and thermal performance within its intended flight environment. Due to its complexity, extensive pre-test planning was required to ensure payload safety and compliance with all limits and constraints. A system-level pre-test thermal model was constructed which fully captured the behavior of the payload, ground support equipment, and surrounding test chamber. This thermal model simulated both the transient cooldown to and warmup from a 20 K flight-like environment, as well as predicted the payload performance at cryo-stable conditions. The current work is an assessment of thermal model pre-test prediction performance against actual payload response during the OTIS CV test. Overall, the thermal model performed exceedingly well at predicting schedule and payload response. Looking in depth, this work examines both the benefits and shortcomings of assumptions made pre-test to simplify model execution when compared against test data. It explores in detail the role of temperature-dependent emissivities during transition to cryogenic temperatures, as well as the impact that model geometry simplifications have on tracking of critical hardware limits and constraints. This work concludes with a list of recommendations to improve the accuracy of thermal modeling for future large cryogenic tests. The insight gained from the OTIS CV test thermal modeling will benefit planning and execution for upcoming cryogenic missions.

Testing↗

Thermal Model Performance for the James Webb Space Telescope OTIS Cryo-Vacuum Test

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), set to launch in early 2019, is currently undergoing a series of system-level environmental tests to verify its workmanship and end-to-end functionality. As part of this series, the Optical Telescope Element and Integrated Science Instrument Module (OTIS) Cryo-Vacuum (CV) test, the most complex cryogenic test executed to date by NASA, has recently been completed at the Johnson Space Center's Chamber A facility. The OTIS CV test was intended as a comprehensive test of the integrated instrument and telescope systems to fully understand its optical, structural, and thermal performance within its intended flight environment. Due to its complexity, extensive pre-test planning was required to ensure payload safety and compliance with all limits and constraints. A system-level pre-test thermal model was constructed which fully captured the behavior of the payload, ground support equipment, and surrounding test chamber. This thermal model simulated both the transient cooldown to and warmup from a 20K flight-like environment, as well as predicted the payload performance at cryo-stable conditions. The current work is a preliminary assessment of thermal model performance against actual payload response during the OTIS CV test. It examines both the benefits and shortcomings of assumptions made pre-test to simplify model execution when compared against test data. It explores in detail the role of temperature-dependent emissivities during transition to cryogenic temperatures, as well as the impact that model geometry simplifications have on tracking of critical hardware limits and constraints. This work concludes with a list of recommendations to improve the accuracy of thermal modeling for future large cryogenic tests. It is hoped that the insight gained from the OTIS CV test thermal modeling will benefit planning and execution for upcoming cryogenic missions.

JWST↗

Thermal Model Performance for the James Webb Space Telescope OTIS Cryo-Vacuum Test

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), set to launch in early 2019, is currently undergoing a series of system-level environmental tests to verify its workmanship and end-to-end functionality. As part of this series, the Optical Telescope Element and Integrated Science Instrument Module (OTIS) Cryo-Vacuum (CV) test, the most complex cryogenic test executed to date by NASA, has recently been completed at the Johnson Space Center’s Chamber A facility. The OTIS CV test was intended as a comprehensive test of the integrated instrument and telescope systems to fully understand its optical, structural, and thermal performance within its intended flight environment. Due to its complexity, extensive pre-test planning was required to ensure payload safety and compliance with all limits and constraints. A system-level pre-test thermal model was constructed which fully captured the behavior of the payload, ground support equipment, and surrounding test chamber. This thermal model simulated both the transient cooldown to and warmup from a 20K flight-like environment, as well as predicted the payload performance at cryo-stable conditions. The current work is a preliminary assessment of thermal model performance against actual payload response during the OTIS CV test. Overall, the thermal model performed exceedingly well at predicting schedule and payload response. Looking in depth, this work examines both the benefits and shortcomings of assumptions made pre-test to simplify model execution when compared against test data. It explores in detail the role of temperature-dependent emissivities during transition to cryogenic temperatures, as well as the impact that model geometry simplifications have on tracking of critical hardware limits and constraints. This work concludes with a list of recommendations to improve the accuracy of thermal modeling for future large cryogenic tests. It is hoped that the insight gained from the OTIS CV test thermal modeling will benefit planning and execution for upcoming cryogenic missions.

Yang, Kan↗

Numerical simulation of corotating interaction regions

We report on a numerical simulation of Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) in the solar wind. We employ an MHD calculation with a tilted dipole model: slow wind is assumed around the tilted current sheet. As a simplifying assumption the solar wind is kept radial, meridional and azimuthal deflections are neglected. Despite of this simplification the model reproduces several observed features of CIR-s. CIR-s turn out most prominent at mid-latitudes. Toward increasing heliographic latitudes, reverse shocks become dominant, forward shocks tend to become weaker then disappear. The frozen in magnetic field is calculated and applied for the simulation of the transport of cosmic rays in the heliosphere. Some consequences on recurrent cosmic ray phenomena and on the acceleration of energetic particles will be discussed.

Kota, J.↗

A Model for Particle Microphysics, Turbulent Mixing, and Radiative Transfer in the Stratocumulus-Topped Marine Boundary Layer and Comparisons with Measurements

A detailed 1D model of the stratocumulus-topped marine boundary layer is described. The model has three coupled components: a microphysics module that resolves the size distributions of aerosols and cloud droplets, a turbulence module that treats vertical mixing between layers, and a multiple wavelength radiative transfer module that calculates radiative heating rates and cloud optical properties. The results of a 12-h model simulation reproduce reasonably well the bulk thermodynamics, microphysical properties, and radiative fluxes measured in an approx. 500-m thick, summertime marine stratocumulus cloud layer by Nicholls. However, in this case, the model predictions of turbulent fluxes between the cloud and subcloud layers exceed the measurements. Results of model simulations are also compared to measurements of a marine stratus layer made under gale conditions and with measurements of a high, thin marine stratocumulus layer. The variations in cloud properties are generally reproduced by the model, although it underpredicts the entrainment of overlying air at cloud top under gale conditions. Sensitivities of the model results are explored. The vertical profile of cloud droplet concentration is sensitive to the lower size cutoff of the droplet size distribution due to the presence of unactivated haze particles in the lower region of the modeled cloud. Increases in total droplet concentrations do not always produce less drizzle and more cloud water in the model. The radius of the mean droplet volume does not correlate consistently with drizzle, but the effective droplet radius does. The greatest impacts on cloud properties predicted by the model are produced by halving the width of the size distribution of input condensation nuclei and by omitting the effect of cloud-top radiative cooling on the condensational growth of cloud droplets. The omission of infrared scattering produces noticeable changes in cloud properties. The collection efficiencies for droplets less than 30-micrometers radius, and the value of the accommodation coefficient for condensational droplet growth, have noticeable effects on cloud properties. The divergence of the horizontal wind also has a significant effect on a 12-h model simulation of cloud structure. Conclusions drawn from the model are tentative because of the limitations of the 1D model framework. A principal simplification is that the model assumes horizontal homogeneity, and, therefore, does not resolve updrafts and downdrafts. Likely consequences of this simplification include overprediction of the growth of droplets by condensation in the upper region of the cloud, underprediction of droplet condensational growth in the lower region of the cloud, and underprediction of peak supersaturations.

Ackerman, Andrew S.↗

A Model for Particle Microphysics,Turbulent Mixing, and Radiative Transfer in the Stratocumulus-Topped Marine Boundary Layer and Comparisons with Measurements

A detailed 1D model of the stratocumulus-topped marine boundary layer is described. The model has three coupled components: a microphysics module that resolves the size distributions of aerosols and cloud droplets, a turbulence module that treats vertical mixing between layers, and a multiple wavelength radiative transfer module that calculates radiative heating rates and cloud optical properties. The results of a 12-h model simulation reproduce reasonably well the bulk thermodynamics, microphysical properties, and radiative fluxes measured in an approx. 500-m thick, summertime marine stratocumulus cloud layer by Nicholls. However, in this case, the model predictions of turbulent fluxes between the cloud and subcloud layers exceed the measurements. Results of model simulations are also compared to measurements of a marine stratus layer made under gate conditions and with measurements of a high, thin marine stratocumulus layer. The variations in cloud properties are generally reproduced by the model, although it underpredicts the entrainment of overlying air at cloud top under gale conditions. Sensitivities of the model results are explored. The vertical profile of cloud droplet concentration is sensitive to the lower size cutoff of the droplet size distribution due to the presence of unactivated haze particles in the lower region of the modeled cloud. Increases in total droplet concentrations do not always produce less drizzle and more cloud water in the model. The radius of the mean droplet volume does not correlate consistently with drizzle, but the effective droplet radius does. The greatest impacts on cloud properties predicted by the model are produced by halving the width of the size distribution of input condensation nuclei and by omitting the effect of cloud-top radiative cooling on the condensational growth of cloud droplets. The omission of infrared scattering produces noticeable changes in cloud properties. The collection efficiencies for droplets less than 30-micron radius, and the value of the accommodation coefficient for condensational droplet growth, have noticeable effects on cloud properties. The divergence of the horizontal wind also has a significant effect on a 12-h model simulation of cloud structure. Conclusions drawn from the model are tentative because of the limitations of the 1D model framework. A principal simplification is that the model assumes horizontal homogeneity, and, therefore, does not resolve updrafts and downdrafts. Likely consequences of this simplification include overprediction of the growth of droplets by condensation in the upper region of the cloud, underprediction of droplet condensational growth in the lower region of the cloud, and under-prediction of peak supersaturations.

Ackerman, Andrew S.↗

Fuel Burn Estimation Using Real Track Data

A procedure for estimating fuel burned based on actual flight track data, and drag and fuel-flow models is described. The procedure consists of estimating aircraft and wind states, lift, drag and thrust. Fuel-flow for jet aircraft is determined in terms of thrust, true airspeed and altitude as prescribed by the Base of Aircraft Data fuel-flow model. This paper provides a theoretical foundation for computing fuel-flow with most of the information derived from actual flight data. The procedure does not require an explicit model of thrust and calibrated airspeed/Mach profile which are typically needed for trajectory synthesis. To validate the fuel computation method, flight test data provided by the Federal Aviation Administration were processed. Results from this method show that fuel consumed can be estimated within 1% of the actual fuel consumed in the flight test. Next, fuel consumption was estimated with simplified lift and thrust models. Results show negligible difference with respect to the full model without simplifications. An iterative takeoff weight estimation procedure is described for estimating fuel consumption, when takeoff weight is unavailable, and for establishing fuel consumption uncertainty bounds. Finally, the suitability of using radar-based position information for fuel estimation is examined. It is shown that fuel usage could be estimated within 5.4% of the actual value using positions reported in the Airline Situation Display to Industry data with simplified models and iterative takeoff weight computation.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

Bayesian Model Selection for Reducing Bloat and Overfitting in Genetic Programming for Symbolic Regression

When performing symbolic regression using genetic programming, overfitting and bloat can negatively impact generalizability and interpretability of the resulting equations as well as increase computation times. A Bayesian fitness metric is introduced and its impact on bloat and overfitting during population evolution is studied and compared to common alternatives in the literature. The proposed approach was found to be more robust to noise and data sparsity in numerical experiments, guiding evolution to a level of complexity appropriate to the dataset. Further evolution of the population resulted not in overfitting or bloat, but rather in slight simplifications in model form. The ability to identify an equation of complexity appropriate to the scale of noise in the training data was also demonstrated. In general, the Bayesian model selection algorithm was shown to be an effective means of regularization which resulted in less bloat and overfitting when any amount of noise was present in the training data.

G F Bomarito↗

Bayesian Model Selection for Reducing Bloat and Overfitting in Genetic Programming for Symbolic Regression

When performing symbolic regression using genetic programming, overfitting and bloat can negatively impact generalizability and interpretability of the resulting equations as well as increase computation times. A Bayesian fitness metric is introduced and its impact on bloat and overfitting during population evolution is studied and compared to common alternatives in the literature. The proposed approach was found to be more robust to noise and data sparsity in numerical experiments, guiding evolution to a level of complexity appropriate to the dataset. Further evolution of the population resulted not in overfitting or bloat, but rather in slight simplifications in model form. The ability to identify an equation of complexity appropriate to the scale of noise in the training data was also demonstrated. In general, the Bayesian model selection algorithm was shown to be an effective means of regularization which resulted in less bloat and overfitting when any amount of noise was present in the training data.

Uncertainty quantification↗

Analysis of AP1000 Small-Break Loss-of-Coolant Accident Using Reactor Transient Simulator

The Westinghouse Electric Company’s Advanced Passive Reactor (AP1000) is characterized by the incorporation of passive safety systems (PSSs) designed to ensure core cooling during transient events. The assessment of PSSs requires evaluation of their performance through a combination of experiments and simulations employing various thermal-hydraulic codes. In addition, detailed evaluation of PSSs for a specific reactor system transient analysis such as loss-of-coolant-accident analysis supports understanding representative integral effects test facility development and the further evolution model development and assessment process. Developing a reactor system code is a complex and time-consuming process that requires significant engineering expertise and effort. It can take several months to even years to complete in the early stages of reactor system design and analysis. However, this process can be expedited through the use of transient simulator models for similar reactor systems, which can be used for lesson learning and training purposes. This study uses the Personal Computer Transient Analyzer (PCTRAN) code. The main advantage of PCTRAN is its ease of use and ability to run faster than real time. This study presents the results obtained for a small-break loss-of-coolant accident (SBLOCA) for two breaks using the full version (licensed) of PCTRAN. The purpose of this investigation is to evaluate the overall system behavior during the postulated SBLOCA event as well as assess the capability of the PCTRAN code to reproduce the system response during transient events. The obtained results were compared with the Westinghouse NOTRUMP system code. The PCTRAN code proved to be reliable in predicting the qualitative behavior of the system in both transient cases. As for the system response, it was found that it is contingent on the activation time of the PSSs. The differences in reactor coolant system pressure between the two codes were attributed to the critical flow model and simplification of mass and energy balance. Despite PCTRAN’s limitations, it can still provide a reasonable prediction of various reactor parameters such as pressure, mass flow rate, and void fraction during a SBLOCA scenario. It is worth noting that PCTRAN currently employs a bulk approach similar to that of the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) and MELCOR codes. However, the upcoming version of PCTRAN will include an artificial intelligence–based detection and accident prevention system, as well as different models for different reactor components. Consequently, PCTRAN has the potential to be upgraded to match the system thermal-hydraulic codes of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and become more widely used in cybersecurity to safeguard nuclear power plants from cyberattacks.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Ice storage model-predictive control in an office building with PV: scenario, error and sensitivity analysis

Thermal energy storage (TES) can enable more building-sited renewable electricity generation and lower utility bill costs for buildings owners and occupants, especially when there are high demand and variable time-of-use (TOU) charges. A model predictive control (MPC) strategy can offer additional savings over a schedule-based control with added complexity and reliance on forecasts. Here, this study examines savings for medium office buildings with chiller plants in three locations with building-installed solar photovoltaics (PV) to understand the impact of MPC. Control setpoints are fixed by a schedule-based control or optimized by nonlinear MPC. These control setpoints are actuated within EnergyPlus building models to simulate the utility cost of the chiller plant. NLP solutions can be unstable or unrealistic, but our results show that by regularizing the NLP, the solutions can be reasonably followed by the building model. MPC models make simplifications that lead to errors once the controller is participating in and changing the operation of the building. These errors average 9 % across the cases, showing that the most important parts of the system are represented. The no-thermal load costs are computed to show that the optimization can in some cases achieve both the minimum TOU and minimum monthly demand costs by demand management while reducing TOU energy costs by energy arbitrage. The MPC saves 35–66 % in the annual chiller plant operating costs, which is an additional savings above the schedule by 1–33 %. PV and TES are complementary and mostly independent, but a load with PV often results in better performance for the schedule. Our case study and sensitivity analysis show the importance of modeling and optimization for complex rates, but also the circumstances wherein a simpler strategy achieves the same performance with less potential for error.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Prediction of the thermal-hydraulic-mechanical response of a geological repository at large scale and sensitivity analyses

To better understand the Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical (THM) response of the rock caused by the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) released heat in the Callovo-Oxfordian formation (COx) in the near-field and far-field areas, a series of coupled THM modelling is performed. This study presents a case study based on the French geological repository for HLW (Cigéo project) to better assess modelling of deep geological repositories (DGR) within the DECOVALEX-2019 framework. In this study, the proposed coupled THM model, implemented in the platform of COMSOL, is validated by comparing the modelled THM results for a point heat source in an infinite rock mass with an analytical solution. It is also validated by comparing its thermal component for the Base Case with accurate results calculated using another numerical method. To shorten the calculation time, the DGR is modelled using six cuboid blocks representing 162 HLW cells and only six central HLW cells of interest modelled in detail. This simplification is validated. This model can easily be used to model not only the near-field THM response of the rock but also the far-field THM response. The influence of the boundary conditions applied on the gallery wall, HLW cell walls, and external surfaces of the model and the influence of different vertical dimensions of the geometry are studied. The sensitivity analyses of the THM parameters of COx on the THM response at different locations are performed. Finally, the influence of using a 2-dimensional (2D) model to represent a 3-dimensional (3D) repository is also investigated.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Model Package Report: Composite Analysis Solid Waste Release Model (CASWR Model)

This document describes the implementation of a solid waste form release model in GoldSim for the Hanford Site Composite Analysis (CA) Update. This Composite Analysis Solid Waste Release model (CASWR model) was designed to generate deterministic radionuclide release rates for Hanford’s Central Plateau solid waste disposal sites using single realizations of release model coefficients. Five generalized waste form types are used for the conceptual model of waste release: surplus reactor block, cement, soil-debris, grouted residual waste, and ancillary equipment. The surplus reactor block waste form consists of radionuclide leaching from surplus production graphite reactor core blocks via unspecified processes (White et al., 1984 as cited in PNNL-15965). The cement waste form represents solidified wastes whose permeability is much lower than that of the surrounding soil. The soil-debris waste form type is defined as unconsolidated waste mixed with soil material. Tanks and canyon complexes comprise the grouted residual waste form such that their solid waste will be grouted and capped with a surface barrier at the completion of their cleanup. Finally, the ancillary equipment waste form constitutes contaminant releases from ancillary and auxiliary waste form residues associated with tank farms at closure. Individual sub-models are implemented to numerically represent a respective waste form within the CASWR Model: Surplus Reactor Block Sub-model, Cement Sub-model, SoilDebris Sub-model, Grouted Residual Waste Sub-model, and Ancillary Equipment Submodel. Advection is assumed to be the primary transport process governing the release of radionuclides in the Ancillary Equipment and Soil-Debris Sub-models. Diffusion is assumed to be the primary release process in the Grouted Residual Waste and Cement Sub-models. An unspecified zero-order release process is considered in the Surplus Reactor Block Sub-model due to the lack of information regarding actual processes involved in irradiated graphite leaching. The Surplus Reactor Block, Cement, and SoilDebris Sub-models were compared against analytical solutions (PNNL-11800, Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the 200 Area Plateau of the Hanford Site). The agreement between results of these analytical solutions and the corresponding waste form models verified their correct implementation in GoldSim. A 1-D modeling abstraction approach for the Grouted Residual Waste and Ancillary Equipment Sub-models was adopted from existing Performance Assessment (PA) models. Despite the simplifications made in these sub-models, they were found to be appropriate representations of the waste forms, similar to what was used in the Waste Management Area C PA model (RPP-ENV-58782, Performance Assessment of Waste Management Area C, Hanford Site, Washington, Rev. 0). A sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the most influential parameters in each waste form sub-model. Suggestions for considering pH-dependent and redox-dependent release mechanisms are formulated through the development of a conditional constant approach in GoldSim.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Develop a Fast Analysis Solver for Welding Sequence Optimization

During the shipbuilding manufacturing process, materials are exposed to significant stresses, as induced both thermally and mechanically, that alter the intended design and significantly affect the production schedule, labor hours (fitting, welding, rework, etc.), and material structural performance. The type and magnitude of deformation of a given structure depends on many factors such as the material, thickness and quality of components, the process heat input, preheat and inter-pass temperatures, type and size of welds, welding sequence and direction, location, sequence, and degree of fixturing. Numerical simulations using finite element analysis (FEA) have long been used to analyze welding-induced structural distortion. For large assemblies, transient thermal elastic-plastic analysis (TEPA) can take days or weeks to run, and optimization of welding sequence is not feasible. Simplified analysis methods were developed to reduce computational time. However, it is challenging to use these techniques to fully optimize welding sequencing because of their applied simplifications in modeling weld details. A fast analysis solver that could be used by the shipbuilding industry is being developed for optimizing welding sequences by taking full advantage of modern GPU-based HPC hardware and incorporating patented acceleration schemes. The accelerated processing factors are up to 2200 times greater for large, multi-pass welded structures.

Yang, Yu-Ping↗

System consideration, design approach and test of a low gain spherical coverage antenna for large space vehicles

A fixed beam array antenna approach is proposed to meet the omnidirectional receiving and transmitting requirements of LST (Large Space Telescope). The proposed method uses an antenna of known performance and scales the size and frequency to conform with the LST 1/5-th scale model. The simplification that the approach provides over switching antenna elements on board the LST or switching from the ground by frequency diversity makes it worthy of consideration against the factors of performance, cost, reliability, and operations complexity. For LST applications, the system capabilities, requirements, and margins are summarized. The areas to be covered by further investigations into the proposed LST antenna are noted.

Ferguson, R. E.↗