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DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Urbanization in China on the East Asian Summer Monsoon as Revealed by Two Global Climate Models

Abstract The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), vulnerable to anthropogenic activities, exerts profound impacts on precipitation in East Asia. In recent decades, China has been experiencing rapid urbanization. It has not yet reached a consensus on its influences on EASM. Here, we introduce satellite‐derived urban impervious areas of China during 1985–2017 into two global climate models with contrasting biases of climatological EASM simulation. Both models consistently show that urbanization weakens EASM by increasing surface friction drag. The increased surface roughness reduces climatological southerly winds in the concentrated urbanization area. As a result, moisture convergence occurs south of the concentrated urbanization area with ascending motion, while moisture divergence with descending motion appears to the north, resulting in the precipitation anomalies of “southern flood and northern drought.” The dominant role of urban dynamic forcing in regulating EASM is confirmed by reducing urban roughness to the level of croplands in sensitivity experiments. As urban dynamic forcing is largely mitigated, the urbanization impact mainly driven by urban thermal forcing conversely strengthens EASM due to enhanced land‐sea thermal contrast via urbanization‐induced warming. Spatial patterns and magnitudes of the urbanization‐induced EASM weakening vary between the two models due to disparities in their simulations of urban thermodynamic forcing and atmospheric adjustments. These results underscore the robust weakening effect of urbanization on EASM by urban friction drag and document uncertainties in the related spatial pattern and magnitude resulting from model discrepancies.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Angular distribution of neutron production by proton and carbon-ion therapeutic beams

Carbon-ion beams are increasingly used in the clinical practice for external radiotherapy treatments of deep-seated tumors. At therapeutic energies, carbon ions yield significant secondary products, including neutrons, which may be of concern for the radiation protection of the patient and personnel. We simulated the neutron yield produced by proton and carbon-ion pencil beams impinging on a clinical phantom at three different angles: 15°, 45° and 90°, with respect to the beam axis. We validated the simulated results using the measured response of organic scintillation detectors. We compared the results obtained with FLUKA 2011.2 and MCNPX 2.7.0 based on three different physics models: Bertini, Isabel, and CEM. Over the different ions, energies, and angles, the FLUKA simulation results agree better with the measured data, compared to the MCNPX results. Simulations of carbon ions at low angles exhibit both the highest deviation from measured data and inter-model discrepancy, which is probably due to the different treatment of the pre-equilibrium stage. The reported neutron yield results could help in the comparison of carbon-ion and proton treatments in terms of secondary neutron production for radiation protection applications.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Lepton-nucleus cross section measurements for DUNE with the LDMX detector

We point out that the LDMX (Light Dark Matter eXperiment) detector design, conceived to search for sub-GeV dark matter, will also have very advantageous characteristics to pursue electron-nucleus scattering measurements of direct relevance to the neutrino program at DUNE and elsewhere. These characteristics include a 4-GeV electron beam, a precision tracker, electromagnetic and hadronic calorimeters with near 2 π azimuthal acceptance from the forward beam axis out to ~ 40 ° angle, and low reconstruction energy threshold. LDMX thus could provide (semi)exclusive cross section measurements, with detailed information about final-state electrons, pions, protons, and neutrons. We compare the predictions of two widely used neutrino generators ( genie , g i buu ) in the LDMX region of acceptance to illustrate the large modeling discrepancies in electron-nucleus interactions at DUNE-like kinematics. We argue that discriminating between these predictions is well within the capabilities of the LDMX detector.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Rapid Compression Machine Study of 2-Phenylethanol Autoignition at Low-To-Intermediate Temperatures

To meet the increasing anti-knocking quality demand of boosted spark-ignition engines, fuel additives are considered an effective approach to tailor fuel properties for satisfying the performance requirements. Thus, screening/developing bio-derived fuel additives that are best-suited for advanced spark-ignition engines has become a significant task. 2-Phenylethanol (2-PE) is an attractive candidate that features high research octane number, high octane sensitivity, low vapor pressure, and high energy density. Recognizing that the low temperature autoignition chemistry of 2-PE is not well understood and the need for fundamental experimental data at engine-relevant conditions, rapid compression machine (RCM) experiments are therefore conducted herein to measure ignition delay times (IDTs) of 2-PE in air over a wide range of conditions to fill this fundamental void. These newly acquired IDT data at low-to-intermediated temperatures, equivalence ratios of 0.35–1.5, and compressed pressures of 10–40 bar are then used to validate the 2-PE model developed by Shankar et al. (2017). It is found that this literature model greatly overpredicts the current RCM data. The comparison of experimental and simulated results also provides insights into 2-PE autoignition behaviors at varying conditions. Further chemical kinetic analyses demonstrate that the absence of the O2-addition pathway of β-R. radical in the 2-PE model of Shankar et al. (2017) could account for the model discrepancies observed at low-to-intermediated temperatures.

Fang, Ruozhou (ORCID:0000000348315100)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling the chemistry and transport impacts of the quasi-biennial oscillation on stratospheric ozone

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical winds perturbs stratospheric ozone throughout much of the atmosphere via changes in transport of ozone and other trace gases, as well as via temperature changes, both of which alter ozone chemistry. Attributing these causes of QBO–ozone variability may provide insights into model-to-model differences that contribute to ozone simulation. Here we develop a novel metric of steady-state ozone (SSO) to separate these effects: SSO calculates the local steady-state response of ozone due to the changes in temperature, chemical species, and overhead ozone column; the response due to circulation change is presumed when SSO shows no response. It is applied to the nudged Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) with interactive ozone chemistry to demonstrate its validity. The E3SMv2 simulations nudged to reanalysis data produced reasonable wind and ozone patterns, especially in the tropics. Consistent with previous studies, we find clear demarcations with pressure. Ozone perturbations in the upper stratosphere (<6 hPa) are predicted by temperature changes; those between 6 and 20 hPa are predicted by NO y changes, and those in the lower stratosphere show no temperature or NO y response and are presumably driven by circulation changes. These results are important for diagnosing model-to-model discrepancy in QBO–ozone response and enhancing the reliability of ozone projections.

Xie, Jinbo [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory↗

NASA NTRS1977

Arc heater code validation tests of heat shield materials

Results are reported for tests of candidate heat-shield materials for outer-planet entry probes, which were conducted in two different arc-heater facilities at heating rates below those predicted for entry. One facility supplied a combined radiative-convective heating environment in air while the other provided a hydrogen/helium environment for convective heating only. Both 'infinite-slab' and 'finite-slab' models consisting of various carbon phenolic (CP) and fused silica (FS) materials were tested. The test results obtained are expressed in terms of ablation rates and surface as well as in-depth temperature variations with time for the air environment and in terms of normalized ablation rate as a function of temperature for the H/He environment. The measured values are compared with calculations based on a charring material thermal response and ablation code. For the CP models, good agreement between predicted and measured mass-loss rates is noted, surface temperatures in air are predicted within 18%, and in-depth temperature predictions are shown to be conservative in comparison with measured values. For the FS models, discrepancies are found between the predicted and measured mass-loss rates and surface temperatures.

Kesselring, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Investigation of Passive Atmospheric Sounding Using Millimeter- and Submillimeter- Wavelength Channels

This report summarizes progress made during the period from July 1, 1994 through June 30, 1996 on the development of satellite-based observational techniques for high resolution imaging of precipitation and sounding of atmospheric ice and water vapor using passive microwave radiometers in the millimeter (MMW)- and submillimeter (SMMW)-wavelength. This is being achieved by radiative transfer modeling a millimeter and submillimeter wave frequencies and by the development and operation of an airborne millimeter wave imaging radiometer (MIR). The MIR has been used in both airborne and ground-based experiments. Its primary application is to provide calibrated radiometric imagery to verify MMW and SMMW radiative transfer models in clear air, cloud, and precipitation and to develop retrieval techniques using MMW and SMMW channels. The MIR imagery over convective storm cells has been used to illustrate the potentially useful cloud and water vapor sensing and storm-cell mapping capabilities of SMMW channels. The radiometric data has also been used to analyze radiative transfer model discrepancies caused by water vapor errors in radiosondes. The MMW and SMMW channels can be used to extend the altitude that water vapor sounding can be performed up into the lower stratosphere. Together, the use of both SMMW and MMW channels are expected to provide additional observational degrees of freedom related to cloud ice particle size.

Gasiewski, Albin J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Flow Control Analysis on the Hump Model with RANS Tools

A concerted effort is underway at NASA Langley Research Center to create a benchmark for Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) codes. both unstructured and structured, against a data set for the hump model with actuation. The hump model was tested in the NASA Langley 0.3-m Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel. The CFD codes used for the analyses are the FUN2D (Full Unstructured Navier-Stokes 2-Dimensional) code, the structured TLNS3D (Thin-Layer Navier-Stokes 3-Dimensional) code, and the structured CFL3D code, all developed at NASA Langley. The current investigation uses the time-accurate Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach to predict aerodynamic performance of the active flow control experimental database for the hump model. Two-dimensional computational results verified that steady blowing and suction and oscillatory suction/blowing can be used to significantly reduce the separated flow region on the model. Discrepancies do exist between the CFD results and experimental data in the region downstream of the slot with the largest differences in the oscillatory cases. Overall, the structured CFD codes exhibited similar behavior with each other for a wide range of control conditions, with the unstructured FUN2D code showing moderately different results in the separated flow region for the suction and oscillatory cases.

Viken, Sally A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Post-flight Analysis of the Argon Filled Ion Chamber

Atmospheric ionizing radiation is a complex mixture of primary galactic and solar cosmic rays and a multitude of secondary particles produced in collision with air nuclei. The first series of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation (AIR) measurement flights on the NASA research aircraft ER-2 took place in June 1997. The ER-2 flight package consisted of fifteen instruments from six countries and were chosen to provide varying sensitivity to specific components. These AIR ER-2 flight measurements are to characterize the AIR environment during solar minimum to allow the continued development of environmental models of this complex mixture of ionizing radiation. This will enable scientists to study the ionizing radiation health hazard associated with the high-altitude operation of a commercial supersonic transport and to allow estimates of single event upsets for advanced avionics systems design. The argon filled ion chamber representing about 40 percent of the contributions to radiation risks are analyzed herein and model discrepancies for solar minimum environment are on the order of 5 percent and less. Other biologically significant components remain to be analyzed.

Tai, H.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Comparison of Meteoroid Flux Models for Near Earth Space

Over the last decade several new models for the sporadic interplanetary meteoroid flux have been developed. These include the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM), the Divine-Staubach model and the Interplanetary Meteoroid Engineering Model (IMEM). They typically cover mass ranges from 10-12 g (or lower) to 1 g and are applicable for model specific sun distance ranges between 0.2 A.U. and 10 A.U. Near 1 A.U. averaged fluxes (over direction and velocities) for all these models are tuned to the well established interplanetary model by Gr?n et. al. However, in many respects these models differ considerably. Examples are the velocity and directional distributions and the assumed meteoroid sources. In this paper flux predictions by the various models to Earth orbiting spacecraft are compared. Main differences are presented and analysed. The persisting differences even for near Earth space can be seen as surprising in view of the numerous ground based (optical, radar) and in-situ (captured IDPs, in-situ detectors and analysis of retrieved hardware) measurements and simulations. Remaining uncertainties and potential additional studies to overcome the existing model discrepancies are discussed.

Drolshagen, G.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Comparing GOSAT Observations of Localized CO2 Enhancements by Large Emitters with Inventory-Based Estimates

We employed an atmospheric transport model to attribute column-averaged CO2 mixing ratios (XCO2) observed by Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) to emissions due to large sources such as megacities and power plants. XCO2 enhancements estimated from observations were compared to model simulations implemented at the spatial resolution of the satellite observation footprint (0.1deg × 0.1deg). We found that the simulated XCO2 enhancements agree with the observed over several continental regions across the globe, for example, for North America with an observation to simulation ratio of 1.05 +/- 0.38 (p<0.1), but with a larger ratio over East Asia (1.22 +/- 0.32; p<0.05). The obtained observation-model discrepancy (22%) for East Asia is comparable to the uncertainties in Chinese emission inventories (approx.15%) suggested by recent reports. Our results suggest that by increasing the number of observations around emission sources, satellite instruments like GOSAT can provide a tool for detecting biases in reported emission inventories.

CO2↗

NASA NTRS2017

Satellite Constellation Orbit Design to Enable a Space-Based Radio Interferometer

Two different design methods for a networked constellation of N small satellites are presented. In the first method, the (linear) Clohessy-Wilthsire equations are used as an initial design tool, followed by conversion to a two-body model. Discrepancies between the linear and nonlinear solutions are minimized in the conversion process. The second method utilizes invariant manifold theory, by perturbing a reference trajectory in different directions along the center eigenvectors. Both methods require 5N parameters to fully define a constellation. In a relative, rotating frame of the reference path, the spacecraft appear as periodic ellipses of varying sizes. Deployment, reconfiguration using propulsive maneuvers, and station keeping costs for an example mission scenario are addressed.

Chien, Steve A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Photo- and Electro-Induced Hadron Production from Nuclei at Jefferson Laboratory

Understanding many-body knockout processes is crucial for nuclear physics, particularly in photo- and electro-induced reactions. In turn, understanding two- and three-body forces, including higher-order forces, is vital for a complete understanding of atoms. We present photo-induced many-proton knockout processes, with multiplicities from 1 to 6, using 12C, CH2, and C4H9OH targets in the g9a FROST dataset. Our analysis covers photon energies from 600 to 4500 MeV, significantly expanding current world data. Comparing our experimental data to the state-of-the-art GiBUU model offers a new challenge in the model’s theoretical description of many-body processes. GiBUU reasonably describes the data at lower photon energies but struggles at higher energies and missing masses, likely due to missing processes, such as initial 3-pion photoproduction. Our results will inform future developments in describing proton knockout processes, indicating GiBUU’s overall reasonable description of many-proton knockout data up to around 2.2 GeV. We also assess various electro-induced reactions using 2D, 12C, and 40Ar targets in the RGM dataset. Our results, obtained at electron beam energies of 2, 4, and 6 GeV, are compared in detail to GENIE and GiBUU, two widely used theory models in neutrino oscillation experiments. Discrepancies between model predictions and experimental data underscore the need for refining the two theoretical models. Despite discrepancies, GiBUU provides a more accurate modelling of electro-induced reactions, especially for 40Ar - crucial for future neutrino oscillation facilities such as DUNE. Understanding the fundamental nuclear physics involved in neutrino-nuclei interactions is essential for reducing the systematic uncertainties in extracting neutrino oscillation parameters. Many-body processes significantly contribute to the background processes observed in neutrino-nuclei interactions, hence the results from both analyses are crucial for developing the theoretical framework for the underlying nuclear physics.

Williams, Rhidian↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Hydrological Cycle and Ocean Circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Mid-Pliocene: Results From PlioMIP2

The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Piacenzian warm period of the Pliocene (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ∼ 400 ppm, and the subaerial Sunda and Sahul shelves made the land–sea distribution of the MC different to today. Topographic changes and elevated levels of CO2, combined with other forcings, are therefore expected to have driven a substantial climate signal in the MC region at this time. By using the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), we study the mean climatic features of the MC in the mPWP and changes in Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with respect to the preindustrial. Results show a warmer and wetter mPWP climate of the MC and lower sea surface salinity in the surrounding ocean compared with the preindustrial. Furthermore, we quantify the volume transfer through the ITF; although the ITF may be expected to be hindered by the subaerial shelves, 10 out of 15 models show an increased volume transport compared with the preindustrial. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models that are present in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean (MCM), which is based on cluster analysis of the individual models. We study the effect that the choice of MCM versus the more traditional analysis of multi-model mean (MMM) and individual models has on the discrepancy between model results and data. We find that models, which reproduce modern MC climate well, are not always good at simulating the mPWP climate anomaly of the MC. By comparing with individual models, the MMM and MCM reproduce the preindustrial sea surface temperature (SST) of the reanalysis better than most individual models and produce less discrepancy with reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) than most individual models in the MC. In addition, the clusters reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the MMM, so that the MCM provides us with a new way to explore the results from model ensembles that include similar models.

Hydrological cycle↗

DOE OSTI2023

High Values of the Arctic Amplification in the Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation

Arctic Amplification (AA) in the first decade of the 21st century has reached values between 4 and 5, with a subsequent decrease to current values of about 3.6, while the value was from 2 to 3 during the twentieth century. The ensemble mean of the CMIP6 models has difficulty in reproducing the recently observed high values of the AA. In this report, we identify the main reason for this difficulty to be the CMIP6 models overestimate of the mean global temperature trend since about 1990. The largest values of the AA are observed in winter and spring. A sharp AA peak in 1987 spring was caused by a peak in the Arctic temperature trend occurring at the same time as a dip in the trend of mean global temperature. The winter AA has increased almost monotonically since 1990. Dividing the AA between the Arctic land and ocean areas shows that the ocean area makes a larger contribution to the AA. Our future projection of the AA suggests an increasing AA for about the next decade, followed by a slow decrease to about 3.5 in the 2050s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of toroidal rotation on the resistive ballooning modes in ASDEX Upgrade tokamak

Abstract In this work, we investigate the behavior of instabilities appearing between type-I edge localized modes (ELMs), with increasing neutral beam injection (NBI) power concomitant increase in toroidal rotation, and compare it to the modeling result of the linear magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) code CASTOR3D. An injection of one NBI beam, increasing toroidal rotation, results in the mode slowing down from 12 kHz to 7 kHz, and its associated radial displacement decreases from 5 mm to 3.5 mm. In addition, modes shift radially outwards towards higher q , decreasing their poloidal mode numbers. The mode velocity is measured to be close to the E × B velocity with significant uncertainties. Through a set of CASTOR3D simulations with varying profiles, resistivity has been identified as the primary contributor to the growth rates. Only a small stabilizing effect due to toroidal rotation has been observed. While experimental results show a decrease of mode frequency with rotation, the opposite trend is observed in modeling. Reasons for discrepancies between modeling and experiment are discussed. Nevertheless, a main contributor to the mode frequency has been identified to be rotation velocity. CASTOR3D classifies modes as resistive ballooning modes as they do not appear unstable in ideal MHD.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

High Values of the Arctic Amplification in Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Validation of wind resource and energy production simulations for small wind turbines in the United States

Abstract. Due to financial and temporal limitations, the small wind community relies upon simplified wind speed models and energy production simulation tools to assess site suitability and produce energy generation expectations. While efficient and user-friendly, these models and tools are subject to errors that have been insufficiently quantified at small wind turbine heights. This study leverages observations from meteorological towers and sodars across the United States to validate wind speed estimates from the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), revealing average biases within ±0.5 m s−1 at small wind hub heights. Observations from small wind turbines across the United States provide references for validating energy production estimates from the System Advisor Model (SAM), Wind Report, MyWindTurbine.com, and Global Wind Atlas 3 (GWA3), which are seen to overestimate actual annual capacity factors by 2.5, 4.2, 11.5, and 7.3 percentage points, respectively. In addition to quantifying the error metrics, this paper identifies sources of model and tool discrepancies, noting that interannual fluctuation in the wind resource, wind speed class, and loss assumptions produces more variability in estimates than different horizontal and vertical interpolation techniques. The results of this study provide small wind installers and owners with information about these challenges to consider when making performance estimates and thus possible adjustments accordingly. Looking to the future, recognizing these error metrics and sources of discrepancies provides model and tool researchers and developers with opportunities for product improvement that could positively impact small wind customer confidence and the ability to finance small wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗