An analytic Monte Carlo approach to parametric studies
Monte Carlo method for obtaining histogram of distribution of minimum fuel midcourse velocity correction of Venus-72 mission
Argentiero, P.↗
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A Monte Carlo photocurrent/photoemission computer program
A Monte Carlo computer program was developed for the computation of photocurrents and photoemission in gamma (X-ray)-irradiated materials. The program was used for computation of radiation-induced surface currents on space vehicles and the computation of radiation-induced space charge environments within space vehicles.
Chadsey, W. L.↗
Prediction of rocket plume radiative heating using backward Monte-Carlo method
A backward Monte-Carlo plume radiation code has been developed to predict rocket plume radiative heating to the rocket base region. This paper provides a description of this code and provides sample results. The code was used to predict radiative heating to various locations during test firings of 48-inch solid rocket motors at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Comparisons with test measurements are provided. Predictions of full scale sea level Redesigned Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) and Advanced Solid Rocket Motor (ASRM) plume radiative heating to the Space Shuttle external tank (ET) dome center were also made. A comparison with the Development Flight Instrumentation (DFI) measurements is also provided.
Wang, K. C.↗
Venus resurfacing rates: Constraints provided by 3-D Monte Carlo simulations
A 3-D Monte Carlo model that simulates the evolving surface of Venus under the influence of a flux of impacting objects and a variety of styles of volcanic resurfacing was implemented. For given rates of impact events and resurfacing, the model predicts the size-frequency and areal distributions of surviving impact craters as a function of time. The number of craters partially modified by volcanic events is also calculated as the surface evolves. It was found that a constant, global resurfacing rate of approximately 0.4 km(sup 3)/yr is required to explain the observed distributions of both the entire crater population, and the population of craters partially modified by volcanic processes.
Bullock, M. A.↗
Update on the Status of the FLUKA Monte Carlo Transport Code
The FLUKA Monte Carlo transport code is a well-known simulation tool in High Energy Physics. FLUKA is a dynamic tool in the sense that it is being continually updated and improved by the authors. Here we review the progresses achieved in the last year on the physics models. From the point of view of hadronic physics, most of the effort is still in the field of nucleus--nucleus interactions. The currently available version of FLUKA already includes the internal capability to simulate inelastic nuclear interactions beginning with lab kinetic energies of 100 MeV/A up the the highest accessible energies by means of the DPMJET-II.5 event generator to handle the interactions for greater than 5 GeV/A and rQMD for energies below that. The new developments concern, at high energy, the embedding of the DPMJET-III generator, which represent a major change with respect to the DPMJET-II structure. This will also allow to achieve a better consistency between the nucleus-nucleus section with the original FLUKA model for hadron-nucleus collisions. Work is also in progress to implement a third event generator model based on the Master Boltzmann Equation approach, in order to extend the energy capability from 100 MeV/A down to the threshold for these reactions. In addition to these extended physics capabilities, structural changes to the programs input and scoring capabilities are continually being upgraded. In particular we want to mention the upgrades in the geometry packages, now capable of reaching higher levels of abstraction. Work is also proceeding to provide direct import into ROOT of the FLUKA output files for analysis and to deploy a user-friendly GUI input interface.
Pinsky, L.↗
Update On the Status of the FLUKA Monte Carlo Transport Code*
The FLUKA Monte Carlo transport code is a well-known simulation tool in High Energy Physics. FLUKA is a dynamic tool in the sense that it is being continually updated and improved by the authors. We review the progress achieved since the last CHEP Conference on the physics models, some technical improvements to the code and some recent applications. From the point of view of the physics, improvements have been made with the extension of PEANUT to higher energies for p, n, pi, pbar/nbar and for nbars down to the lowest energies, the addition of the online capability to evolve radioactive products and get subsequent dose rates, upgrading of the treatment of EM interactions with the elimination of the need to separately prepare preprocessed files. A new coherent photon scattering model, an updated treatment of the photo-electric effect, an improved pair production model, new photon cross sections from the LLNL Cullen database have been implemented. In the field of nucleus-- nucleus interactions the electromagnetic dissociation of heavy ions has been added along with the extension of the interaction models for some nuclide pairs to energies below 100 MeV/A using the BME approach, as well as the development of an improved QMD model for intermediate energies. Both DPMJET 2.53 and 3 remain available along with rQMD 2.4 for heavy ion interactions above 100 MeV/A. Technical improvements include the ability to use parentheses in setting up the combinatorial geometry, the introduction of pre-processor directives in the input stream. a new random number generator with full 64 bit randomness, new routines for mathematical special functions (adapted from SLATEC). Finally, work is progressing on the deployment of a user-friendly GUI input interface as well as a CAD-like geometry creation and visualization tool. On the application front, FLUKA has been used to extensively evaluate the potential space radiation effects on astronauts for future deep space missions, the activation dose for beam target areas, dose calculations for radiation therapy as well as being adapted for use in the simulation of events in the ALICE detector at the LHC.
Ferrari, A.↗
Learning About Ares I from Monte Carlo Simulation
This paper addresses Monte Carlo simulation analyses that are being conducted to understand the behavior of the Ares I launch vehicle, and to assist with its design. After describing the simulation and modeling of Ares I, the paper addresses the process used to determine what simulations are necessary, and the parameters that are varied in order to understand how the Ares I vehicle will behave in flight. Outputs of these simulations furnish a significant group of design customers with data needed for the development of Ares I and of the Orion spacecraft that will ride atop Ares I. After listing the customers, examples of many of the outputs are described. Products discussed in this paper include those that support structural loads analysis, aerothermal analysis, flight control design, failure/abort analysis, determination of flight performance reserve, examination of orbit insertion accuracy, determination of the Upper Stage impact footprint, analysis of stage separation, analysis of launch probability, analysis of first stage recovery, thrust vector control and reaction control system design, liftoff drift analysis, communications analysis, umbilical release, acoustics, and design of jettison systems.
Hanson, John M.↗
A Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of Ozone Trend Predictions in a Two Dimensional Model
We use Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the uncertainty in predictions of total O3 trends between 1979 and 1995 made by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional (2D) model of stratospheric photochemistry and dynamics. The uncertainty is caused by gas-phase chemical reaction rates, photolysis coefficients, and heterogeneous reaction parameters which are model inputs. The uncertainty represents a lower bound to the total model uncertainty assuming the input parameter uncertainties are characterized correctly. Each of the Monte Carlo runs was initialized in 1970 and integrated for 26 model years through the end of 1995. This was repeated 419 times using input parameter sets generated by Latin Hypercube Sampling. The standard deviation (a) of the Monte Carlo ensemble of total 03 trend predictions is used to quantify the model uncertainty. The 34% difference between the model trend in globally and annually averaged total O3 using nominal inputs and atmospheric trends calculated from Nimbus 7 and Meteor 3 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) version 7 data is less than the 46% calculated 1 (sigma), model uncertainty, so there is no significant difference between the modeled and observed trends. In the northern hemisphere midlatitude spring the modeled and observed total 03 trends differ by more than 1(sigma) but less than 2(sigma), which we refer to as marginal significance. We perform a multiple linear regression analysis of the runs which suggests that only a few of the model reactions contribute significantly to the variance in the model predictions. The lack of significance in these comparisons suggests that they are of questionable use as guides for continuing model development. Large model/measurement differences which are many multiples of the input parameter uncertainty are seen in the meridional gradients of the trend and the peak-to-peak variations in the trends over an annual cycle. These discrepancies unambiguously indicate model formulation problems and provide a measure of model performance which can be used in attempts to improve such models.
Considine, D. B.↗
Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to Launch Vehicle Design and Requirements Analysis
This Technical Publication (TP) is meant to address a number of topics related to the application of Monte Carlo simulation to launch vehicle design and requirements analysis. Although the focus is on a launch vehicle application, the methods may be applied to other complex systems as well. The TP is organized so that all the important topics are covered in the main text, and detailed derivations are in the appendices. The TP first introduces Monte Carlo simulation and the major topics to be discussed, including discussion of the input distributions for Monte Carlo runs, testing the simulation, how many runs are necessary for verification of requirements, what to do if results are desired for events that happen only rarely, and postprocessing, including analyzing any failed runs, examples of useful output products, and statistical information for generating desired results from the output data. Topics in the appendices include some tables for requirements verification, derivation of the number of runs required and generation of output probabilistic data with consumer risk included, derivation of launch vehicle models to include possible variations of assembled vehicles, minimization of a consumable to achieve a two-dimensional statistical result, recontact probability during staging, ensuring duplicated Monte Carlo random variations, and importance sampling.
Hanson, J. M.↗
Successful combination of the stochastic linearization and Monte Carlo methods
A combination of a stochastic linearization and Monte Carlo techniques is presented for the first time in literature. A system with separable nonlinear damping and nonlinear restoring force is considered. The proposed combination of the energy-wise linearization with the Monte Carlo method yields an error under 5 percent, which corresponds to the error reduction associated with the conventional stochastic linearization by a factor of 4.6.
Elishakoff, I.↗
Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to Launch Vehicle Design and Requirements Verification
This paper is focused on applying Monte Carlo simulation to probabilistic launch vehicle design and requirements verification. The approaches developed in this paper can be applied to other complex design efforts as well. Typically the verification must show that requirement "x" is met for at least "y" % of cases, with, say, 10% consumer risk or 90% confidence. Two particular aspects of making these runs for requirements verification will be explored in this paper. First, there are several types of uncertainties that should be handled in different ways, depending on when they become known (or not). The paper describes how to handle different types of uncertainties and how to develop vehicle models that can be used to examine their characteristics. This includes items that are not known exactly during the design phase but that will be known for each assembled vehicle (can be used to determine the payload capability and overall behavior of that vehicle), other items that become known before or on flight day (can be used for flight day trajectory design and go/no go decision), and items that remain unknown on flight day. Second, this paper explains a method (order statistics) for determining whether certain probabilistic requirements are met or not and enables the user to determine how many Monte Carlo samples are required. Order statistics is not new, but may not be known in general to the GN&C community. The methods also apply to determining the design values of parameters of interest in driving the vehicle design. The paper briefly discusses when it is desirable to fit a distribution to the experimental Monte Carlo results rather than using order statistics.
Hanson, John M.↗
CFD2030 Grand Challenge: CFD-in-the-Loop Monte Carlo Simulation for Space Vehicle Design
Space vehicle design and certification differs widely from aircraft design relying more on probabilistic approaches than deterministic. Monte Carlo simulation plays an important role in the probabilistic design of space vehicles to ensure robust and reliable operation. Today, Monte Carlo flight simulation requires 1000’s of trajectory simulations that use databases to provide aerosciences models. These databases can be extremely expensive and time consuming to develop. Replacing these databases with unsteady computational fluid dynamics directly in the simulation loop has potential to significantly reduce the time required to analyze space vehicle concepts, improve simulation accuracy, and reduce the cost of space vehicle development. The CFD Vision 2030 Study outlined gaps and roadblocks to meeting the vision described in the study. The geometric, physical, and computational challenges associated with CFD-in-the-loop Monte Carlo simulation for space vehicle design are substantial and serve as an excellent grand challenge to advance the CFD 2030 vision.
CFD2030↗
A SERIES OF MONTE CARLO CODES TO TRANSPORT NUCLEONS THROUGH MATTER
Monte carlo method for nucleon transport through spacecraft shielding
SPACECRAFT SHIELDING↗
CFD 2030 Grand Challenge: CFD-in-the-Loop Monte Carlo Flight Simulation for Space Vehicle Design
Flight qualification of space vehicles is markedly different from those typically employed for aircraft. The concept of an extensive flight test campaign for a space vehicle does not exist, and vehicle designers must look to alternative techniques for demonstrating robust and reliable performance of their vehicles prior to operational flight. A space vehicle may undergo only a handful of flight tests in its development cycle, with each flight representing a drastically different flight phase or flight configuration. For instance, NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle and Orion spacecraft will only see a total of four flight demonstrations before flying a crew on its first operational mission, and each flight demonstrates a unique vehicle configuration and/or set of flight conditions. The SLS will be flown only one time before it becomes operational (Artemis 1). The Orion spacecraft Crew Module (CM) will have been tested twice, once on a Delta IV launch vehicle (Exploration Flight Test 1) and once as a fully integrated system with the SLS launch vehicle (Artemis 1). The Orion Launch abort system will have been tested twice, once in a pad abort scenario (Pad Abort 1) and once in an inflight abort scenario (Ascent Abort 2) on a modified Peacekeeper booster. Both of these latter tests involve only a boiler plate CM, not a functional Orion spacecraft. Thus, unlike aircraft, there is very little opportunity for engineers to assess and evaluate their preflight predictions. Instead, space vehicle designers rely on Monte Carlo flight simulations with detailed dispersions of predicted nominal flight behavior to determine how robust their design is to errors and uncertainties in the flight conditions their vehicle may encounter. These Monte Carlo analyses entail thousands of trajectory simulations to demonstrate that the vehicle can meet design requirements at a specified level of reliability. From an aerodynamics and aerothermodynamics perspective, these trajectory simulations are fueled by an extensive aerodynamic database that covers the complete range of expected flight conditions, vehicle configurations, and flight attitudes expected in a given mission. Today, these databases amount to a table of engineering parameters that can be quickly interrogated by the trajectory simulator. The aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic databases are assembled via a series of ground tests, empirical and analytical analysis, physics-based computational analysis, applicable past flight performance data, and in some cases, engineering judgment. These databases generally take years to assemble for a new space vehicle system and in the case of SLS/Orion, over a decade of test and analysis have been expended to develop the extensive databases required to cover the myriad of configurations and potential flight conditions required for the system. Recently, it has been proposed that Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) and computing capability may be reaching a point where it is foreseeable that CFD could be integrated directly into the production trajectory simulation tools used to design NASA’s space vehicles. To demonstrate this, NASA has embarked on two demonstrations of this type of capability, one where six degree of freedom flight trajectory simulation equations are embedded in an existing CFD solver and another where a production CFD solver is loosely coupled with a production trajectory simulation tool. These efforts represent an initial demonstration of a future approach to flight trajectory simulation, but they are a far cry from the capability required to perform a full-up CFD-in-the-loop Monte Carlo trajectory simulation. Therefore, this represents a viable grand challenge for computational methods addressing space vehicle design and development. The final paper/presentation will discuss the many hurdles, beyond simply raw computational power, to realizing this grand challenge and how they map directly to the CFD Vision 2030 ojectives. Among these are the wide range of flight conditions, including accelerating/decelerating flight, encountered by a space vehicle during launch and/or entry. The vehicle can also encounter numerous configuration changes, some of which can be quite drastic, during the course of its flight, so robust, automated geometry modeling, grid generation, and adaptation will play a huge role in reaching this goal. Multiply this by 1000’s of trajectory simulations occurring simultaneously in a given Monte Carlo analysis, and the problem readily scales to absorb virtually any size of supercomputer envisioned today. The concept of CFD-in-the-loop Monte Carlo trajectory simulation poses a formidable challenge for emerging and future computing systems, and it has the potential to shave years off the development cycle for aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic performance predictions as compared to today’s space vehicle design approach.
CFD 2030↗
Application of the Monte Carlo method for computing nuclear radiation shielding
Monte Carlo method for computing particle and gamma radiation transfer for radiation shielding
MASS TRANSFER↗
A Monte Carlo program for calculation of Doppler coefficients
Monte Carlo program for calculating Doppler coefficients in arbitrary neutron flux spectra
NEUTRON FLUX↗
A Fast Monte Carlo Method for Model-Based Prognostics Based on Stochastic Calculus
This work proposes a fast Monte Carlo method to solve differential equations utilized in model-based prognostics. The methodology is derived from the theory of stochastic calculus, and the goal of such a method is to speed up the estimation of the probability density functions describing the independent variable evolution over time. In the prognostic scenarios presented in this paper, the stochastic differential equations describe variables directly or indirectly related to the degradation of a monitored system. The method allows the estimation of the probability density functions by solving the deterministic equation and approximating the stochastic integrals using samples of the model noise. By so doing, the prognostic problem is solved without the Monte Carlo simulation based on Euler's forward method, which is typically the most time consuming task of the prediction stage. Three different prognostic scenarios are presented as proof of concept: (i) life prediction of electrolytic capacitors, (ii) remaining time to discharge of Lithium-ion batteries, and (iii) prognostic of cracked structures under fatigue loading. The paper shows how the method produces probability density functions that are statistically indistinguishable from the distributions estimated with Euler's forward Monte Carlo simulation. However, the proposed solution is orders of magnitude faster when computing the time-to-failure distribution of the monitored system. The approach may enable complex real-time prognostics and health management solutions with limited computing power.
Corbetta, M.↗
Variance reduction in Monte Carlo analysis of rarefied gas diffusion.
The problem of rarefied diffusion between parallel walls is solved using the Monte Carlo method. The diffusing molecules are evaporated or emitted from one of the two parallel walls and diffuse through another molecular species. The Monte Carlo analysis treats the diffusing molecule as undergoing a Markov random walk, and the local macroscopic properties are found as the expected value of the random variable, the random walk payoff. By biasing the transition probabilities and changing the collision payoffs, the expected Markov walk payoff is retained but its variance is reduced so that the Monte Carlo result has a much smaller error.
Perlmutter, M.↗