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At least 73 records · Page 4

Predicting Critical Transitions in Multiscale Data

Predicting the dynamics of complex nonlinear systems remains a challenging problem both in dynamical systems theory as well as real world science and engineering applications. Data-driven methods utilizing the latest advances in machine learning (ML) provide a promising new paradigm for this task. Our work centered on Reservoir Computing (RC), which has shown itself to be capable of skillfully predicting chaotic dynamics in multiscale systems. In the first part of the work, the focus is on how to improve predictions of critical transitions in a class of slow-fast metastable systems in which the equations are known. An additional goal was to determine whether a relationship exists between RC and Koopman operator theory, to improve the efficiency and broaden the applicability of the approach. In the second part of this work, a variation on the RC model known as Reconstructive Reservoir Computing (RRC) is applied to real-world data to identify anomalies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of Dynamic Sub-Grid Models for Variational Multiscale Methods

A dynamic Variational Multiscale Method (Hughes et al. 1998) is developed by leveraging the Germano procedure from classical Large-eddy Simulations (LES). The similarity between the classical and variational approaches is analyzed in the context of incompressible flow. This analysis leads to a consistent modeling approach for both incompressible and compressible flows, the latter being demonstrated in a priori testing for low-speed attached and separated boundary layers. Similar to the classical LES procedure from which it is derived, the variational dynamic procedure does not guarantee a positive semi-definite coefficient in the general case. However, reproducing the behavior of the classical LES dynamic approach is seen as a necessary first step to develop a VMM that automatically adjusts to the local resolution and flow physics.

Variational multiscale↗

Nonlinear multiphysics and multiscale modeling of dynamic ferromagnetic–thermal problems

A coupled ferromagnetic–thermal solver is developed for the multiphysics and multiscale modeling and simulation of nonlinear magnetic materials in the time domain. By adopting a temperature-dependent dynamic hysteresis model, the power loss is characterized and calculated from the solution of Maxwell's equations, which serves as the heat source for the thermal problem. By solving the thermal problem, the temperature change is obtained, and its effect on the magnetic material property can be quantified, which is then coupled back to Maxwell's equations. Due to different temporal characteristics of the electromagnetic fields and the thermal response, the resulting coupled ferromagnetic–thermal system has two significantly different time scales. Such a temporal multiscale issue is addressed with a proposed multiscale time integration method to account for the multiscale coupling between the two physics. With the proposed multiphysics and multiscale modeling method, both the electromagnetic fields and the thermal responses can be captured accurately in a dynamic operation.

Yan, Su (ORCID:0000000273763493)↗

The East River, Colorado, Watershed: A Mountainous Community Testbed for Improving Predictive Understanding of Multiscale Hydrological–Biogeochemical Dynamics

Core Ideas Development of a 300‐km 2 mountainous headwater testbed began in 2016 in the East River. The testbed can be used to explore how watershed changes impact downgradient water availability and quality. System‐of‐system, scale‐adaptive approaches can potentially improve watershed dynamics simulation. We have new approaches to monitor and simulate water partitioning and system responses. The East River watershed has been developed as a “community” testbed. Extreme weather, fires, and land use and climate change are significantly reshaping interactions within watersheds throughout the world. Although hydrological–biogeochemical interactions within watersheds can impact many services valued by society, uncertainty associated with predicting hydrology‐driven biogeochemical watershed dynamics remains high. With an aim to reduce this uncertainty, an approximately 300‐km 2 mountainous headwater observatory has been developed at the East River, CO, watershed of the Upper Colorado River Basin. The site is being used as a testbed for the Department of Energy supported Watershed Function Project and collaborative efforts. Building on insights gained from research at the “sister” Rifle, CO, site, coordinated studies are underway at the East River site to gain a predictive understanding of how the mountainous watershed retains and releases water, nutrients, carbon, and metals. In particular, the project is exploring how early snowmelt, drought, and other disturbances influence hydrological–biogeochemical watershed dynamics at seasonal to decadal timescales. A system‐of‐systems perspective and a scale‐adaptive simulation approach, involving the combined use of archetypal watershed subsystem “intensive sites” are being tested at the site to inform aggregated watershed predictions of downgradient exports. Complementing intensive site hydrological, geochemical, geophysical, microbiological, geological, and vegetation datasets are long‐term, distributed measurement stations and specialized experimental and observational campaigns. Several recent research advances provide insights about the intensive sites as well as aggregated watershed behavior. The East River “community testbed” is currently hosting scientists from more than 30 institutions to advance mountainous watershed methods and understanding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Kinetic Growth of Multicomponent Microcompartment Shells

An important goal of systems and synthetic biology is to produce high value chemical species in large quantities. Microcompartments, which are protein nanoshells encapsulating catalytic enzyme cargo, could potentially function as tunable nanobioreactors inside and outside cells to generate these high value species. Modifying the morphology of microcompartments through genetic engineering of shell proteins is one viable strategy to tune cofactor and metabolite access to encapsulated enzymes. However, this is a difficult task without understanding how changing interactions between the many different types of shell proteins and enzymes affect microcompartment assembly and shape. Here, we use multiscale molecular dynamics and experimental data to describe assembly pathways available to microcompartments composed of multiple types of shell proteins with varied interactions. As the average interaction between the enzyme cargo and the multiple types of shell proteins is weakened, the shell assembly pathway transitions from (i) nucleating on the enzyme cargo to (ii) nucleating in the bulk and then binding the cargo as it grows to (iii) an empty shell. Atomistic simulations and experiments using the 1,2-propanediol utilization microcompartment system demonstrate that shell protein interactions are highly varied and consistent with our multicomponent, coarse-grained model. Furthermore, our results suggest that intrinsic bending angles control the size of these microcompartments. Altogether, our simulations and experiments provide guidance to control microcomparmtent size and assembly by modulating the interactions between shell proteins.

defects↗

Hyporheic-zone Processes and Stream Oxygen Dynamics: Insights from a Multiscale Reactive Transport Model: Modeling Archive

This archive contains the data and Python scripts required to reproduce the analyses and figures in the study: Gomez-Velez, J. D., Rathore, S. S., Cohen, M. J., & Painter, S. L. (2025). Hyporheic-zone Processes and Stream Oxygen Dynamics: Insights from a Multiscale Reactive Transport Model. Submitted to Water Resources Research. The analysis utilizes the subgrid model Advection Dispersion Equation with Lagrangian Subgrids (ADELS) implemented in the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS; https://amanzi.github.io/ats/stable/). In this case, the ATS and Amanzi versions are (1) ATS version 1.5.1_f5ba18f8 and (2) Amanzi version 1.6-dev_53444cca4. The repository includes a Jupyter Notebook and the necessary data (Pandas DataFrames stored as pickle files) to generate the figures for the manuscript. Additionally, it contains Python scripts to create ATS input files, run the ATS simulations, and post-process the results. Finally, it provides routines for parameter estimation using the Single-Station Metabolism (SSM) model with the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm with ZS enhancements (DREAM-ZS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hyporheic‐Zone Processes and Stream Oxygen Dynamics: Insights From a Multiscale Reactive Transport Model

Aquatic ecosystem metabolism encapsulates the daily fixation (gross primary production, GPP d ) and mineralization (ecosystem respiration, ER d ) of organic carbon. In fluvial systems, these are commonly estimated by inverse solutions to field observations using a model that describes oxygen concentrations varying in the water column in response to metabolic fluxes and air‐water gas exchange controlled by a rate coefficient (K 600 ). The most common conceptual model is the single‐station metabolism (SSM) model. The simplicity and flexibility of this conceptualization make it attractive; however, it implicitly assumes that all the processes that consume oxygen in fluvial systems can be lumped into a bulk estimate of respiration with poorly understood consequences for estimates of GPP d , ER d , and K 600 . Here, we focus on the implications of using SSM conceptualization when estimating metabolic fluxes from oxygen dynamics in channels where hyporheic exchange occurs. We use a new multiscale numerical model for reactive transport in streams that represents hyporheic exchange and streambed heterotrophic respiration. Nondimensionalization of this model reveals dimensionless groups that collectively control oxygen dynamics. Numerical experiments offer a mechanistic understanding of the impacts of hyporheic exchange on diel oxygen dynamics revealing that potential biases arise from neglecting mass transfer limitations. Specifically, we found that hyporheic exchange significantly affects diel oxygen dynamics, even for nonreactive streambed sediments. Moreover, while the SSM performs well in many situations, we find conditions where significant bias is produced by hyporheic exchange, even when oxygen data are well‐fitted. These situations pose a major challenge in the interpretation of metabolism assessment estimates.

Gomez‐Velez, Jesus D. [Oak Ridge National Laborato↗

Reactive molecular dynamics models from ab initio molecular dynamics data using relative entropy minimization

Here, we present two new multiscale molecular dynamics (MS-RMD) models for the hydrated excess proton in water developed directly from ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulation data of the same system. The potential of mean force along the proton transfer reaction coordinate and radial distribution functions for the MS-RMD models are shown faithfully reproduce those of AIMD. The models are developed using an algorithm based on relative entropy minimization, thus demonstrating the ability of the method to rapidly generate accurate and highly efficient reactive MD force fields.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dynamic coevolution of baseflow and multiscale groundwater flow system during prolonged droughts

Field and numerical studies suggest that baseflow is composed of waters from a spectrum of groundwater flow paths termed the Groundwater Flow System (GWFS) – from shallow hillslope contributions to watershed-scale deep circulation originating in headwaters and discharging into lowland rivers. Here, we explore the evolution of the GWFS under prolonged droughts to understand its dynamics and multiscale nature, and to elucidate its role in baseflow generation and recession at the watershed scale. In this work, we consider three drought scenarios of varying severity and simulate groundwater flow in a 2-D cross-section of an idealized watershed with deep permeable bedrock, tracking the evolution of flow paths, baseflow, and residence times during the recession process. We find that baseflow generation at different drainage stages, and within different subwatersheds, is influenced distinctly by flow paths of different scales, depending on the relative strength of the flow paths and the position of the subwatersheds relative to the recharge/discharge zones of the deeper watershed-scale groundwater circulation. Despite having the same local relief, geology, and climate, baseflow from each subwatershed has a distinct recession behavior and time-dependent residence time distribution. Also, the hydraulic and transport characteristics of baseflow generation co-evolve and are strongly affected by the connection state of the water table to subwatersheds. These findings suggest that asynchrony and dissimilarity of baseflow generation from hillslopes under the impact of the watershed-scale groundwater flow, and interactions with local-scale and intermediate-scale groundwater flow, must be taken into account when interpreting baseflow recession data and building conceptual baseflow models at the watershed scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Monte Carlo Simulations of the Formation Flying Dynamics for the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) Mission

The MMS mission is an ambitious space physics mission that will fly 4 spacecraft in a tetrahedron formation in a series of highly elliptical orbits in order to study magnetic reconnection in the Earth's magnetosphere. The mission design is comprised of a combination of deterministic orbit adjust and random maintenance maneuvers distributed over the 2.5 year mission life. Formal verification of the requirements is achieved by analysis through the use of the End-to-End (ETE) code, which is a modular simulation of the maneuver operations over the entire mission duration. Error models for navigation accuracy (knowledge) and maneuver execution (control) are incorporated to realistically simulate the possible maneuver scenarios that might be realized These error models, coupled with the complex formation flying physics, lead to non-trivial effects that must be taken into account by the ETE automation. Using the ETE code, the MMS Flight Dynamics team was able to demonstrate that the current mission design satisfies the mission requirements.

Schiff, Conrad↗

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multiscale Modeling using Molecular Dynamics and Dual Domain Material Point Method

For problems involving large material deformation rate, the material deformation time scale can be shorter than the material takes to reach a thermodynamical equilibrium. For such problems, it is difficult to obtain a constitutive relation. History dependency become important because of thermodynamic non-equilibrium. Our goal is to build a multi-scale numerical method which can bypass the need for a constitutive relation. In conclusion, multi-scale simulation method is developed based on the dual domain material point (DDMP). Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is performed to calculate stress. Since the communication among material points is not necessary, the computation can be done embarrassingly parallel in CPU-GPU platform.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dynamic Data-Driven Multiscale Modeling for Predicting Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of 316L Stainless Steel

We have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗