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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Waste Material Feedstocks Using Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy and Machine Learning

Predicting properties such as heating value, ash fusion temperature, and mineral ash composition from Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) data can make gasifiers more flexible to different feedstocks. Understanding these feedstock properties in-situ improves feedstock conversion modelling methods that allow for consistent operation, higher carbon conversion, and reduced fouling and erosion rates. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate methods for model creation that take LIBS data as predictor features and estimate higher order material properties as a function of feedstock material properties. Six samples were chosen to represent a mixture of abundant and carbon rich waste materials. LIBS measurements were performed on these samples for elemental wavelengths and intensity values. Laboratory analytical results were obtained for each sample’s heating value, proximate and ultimate analysis, mineral ash composition, ash fusion temperatures, and viscosity temperatures. Thermal conductivity was measured using a HotDisk TPS 2500S. LIBS measurements were processed and used as predictor features for machine learning (ML) models to predict the sample’s material properties. Predictor feature selection algorithms, particularly minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR), reduced the dimensionality of ML models. Many modelling methods such as Gaussian process regression (GPR), regression tree, neural networks (NN), and support vector machines (SVM) were demonstrated to be effective at predicting higher order properties; however, mRMR with GPR stood out as a clear winning combination.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning enhanced predictions of ICRF heating: Overcoming numerical limitations via data curation

In this work, we present the development of robust surrogate models for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) and High-Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating predictions in fusion plasmas. Building upon our previous efforts to achieve real-time capable models, we identify the cause of the outliers found using TORIC in certain HHFW heating scenarios. The outliers are observed to be spurious ion Bernstein wave (IBW)-like modes caused by a wavelength control algorithm designed to address challenging scenarios with high perpendicular wavenumbers. The effect arises from the modulation in the perpendicular susceptibility, which can induce sign reversal and IBW-like propagation for scenarios featuring normalized ion Larmor radius λ i ≫ 1. We use TORIC with this algorithm disabled to generate a novel HHFW-NSTX database that is free of outliers. Surrogate models trained on this database, including Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Multi-Layer Perceptrons, and Gaussian Process Regressors (GPR), demonstrate the ability to accurately predict HHFW heating profiles, with regression scores of R 2 ∈[0.93−0.99]. Additionally we demonstrate that it is possible to generalize predictions beyond training data by the use of both RFR and GPR models, enabling the prediction of scenarios previously limited to the original model. GPR models also provide uncertainty quantification, offering insights into model confidence. This work introduces a comprehensive Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification methodology for surrogate modeling, applicable not only to ICRF heating but also to other RF heating challenges and fusion physics problems. Beyond accelerated inference, these models show effective extrapolation capabilities, providing an alternative for addressing numerical challenges.

Artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting boron coordination in multicomponent borate and borosilicate glasses using analytical models and machine learning

Accurate prediction of boron coordination in multicomponent glasses is critical in glass science and technology as it strongly affects the properties of borate and borosilicate glasses. We have collected a dataset containing 657 glasses from literature with boron coordination values and developed models using analytical functions based on the well accepted Dell, Xiao and Bray model. Good prediction of boron coordination with a R 2 value higher than 0.8 was obtained. The large variation of boron coordination from experiments, originated from sample preparations and characterizations, led to difficulties in obtaining models with better prediction performance. Various machine learning (ML) algorithms were evaluated and slightly better prediction performance was observed; however, interpretation of the ML models is less straight forward. In conclusion, this study developed various models capable of providing quantitative boron coordination predictions, providing insights into its structural roles in multi-component glasses, and suggesting fruitful areas for future research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scalable Risk Assessment of Rare Events in Power Systems With Uncertain Wind Generation and Loads

Risk assessment of rare events has become increasingly important in power system planning and operation with the increasing integration of renewable energy and the presence of system uncertainties. However, quantifying the risk posed by rare events via the traditional method, i.e., Monte Carlo sampling (MCS), incurs substantial computational expense stemming from the vast ensemble of power flow simulations. To accelerate the assessment, this paper proposes a Deep Neural Network (DNN)-kernelized vector-valued Gaussian Process (VVGP) approach with excellent computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy. Consequently, serving as a surrogate model for the power flow solver, the DNN-kernelized VVGP enables significantly faster but accurate risk assessment compared to the power flow solver. The developed surrogate model evaluates low-order N - k events that contain more than 90% instances by adeptly capturing the topological features while the high-order N - k events are assessed via a power flow solver, thereby striking a balance between computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification accuracy. Moreover, the model incorporates a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier to resample concerning low-probability tail events to counteract the biases potentially introduced during the DNN-kernelized VVGP evaluations. Simulations conducted on the modified IEEE 24-bus, 118-bus, and European 1354-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed method maintains the accuracy benchmark set by MCS while significantly reducing computational demands in large-scale power systems as compared to other state-of-the-art methods.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting concrete compressive strength using hybrid ensembling of surrogate machine learning models

This study aims to implement a hybrid ensemble surrogate machine learning technique in predicting the compressive strength (CS) of concrete, an important parameter used for durability design and service life prediction of concrete structures in civil engineering projects. For this purpose, an experimental database consisting of 1030 records has been compiled from the machine learning repository of the University of California, Irvine. The database was used to train and validate four conventional machine learning (CML) models, namely Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Linear and Non-Linear Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS-L and MARS-C), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Minimax Probability Machine Regression (MPMR). Subsequently, the predicted outputs of CML models were combined and trained using ANN to construct the Hybrid Ensemble Model (HENSM). It is observed that the proposed HENSM produces higher predictive accuracy compared to the CML models used in the present study. The predictive performance of all models for CS prediction was compared using the testing dataset and it is found that the HENSM model attained the highest predictive accuracy in both phases. Based on the experimental results, the newly constructed HENSM model is very potential to be a new alternative in handling the overfitting issues of CML models and hence, can be used to predict the concrete CS, including the design of less polluting and more sustainable concrete constructions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty quantification for Multiphase-CFD simulations of bubbly flows: a machine learning-based Bayesian approach supported by high-resolution experiments

In this paper, we developed a machine learning-based Bayesian approach to inversely quantify and reduce the uncertainties of multiphase computational fluid dynamics (MCFD) simulations for bubbly flows. The proposed approach is supported by high-resolution two-phase flow measurements, including those by double-sensor conductivity probes, high-speed imaging, and particle image velocimetry. Local distributions of key physical quantities of interest (QoIs), including the void fraction and phasic velocities, are obtained to support the Bayesian inference. In the process, the epistemic uncertainties of the closure relations are inversely quantified while the aleatory uncertainties from stochastic fluctuations of the system are evaluated based on experimental uncertainty analysis. The combined uncertainties are then propagated through the MCFD solver to obtain uncertainties of the QoIs, based on which probability-boxes are constructed for validation. The proposed approach relies on three machine learning methods: feedforward neural networks and principal component analysis for surrogate modeling, and Gaussian processes for model form uncertainty modeling. The whole process is implemented within the framework of an open-source deep learning library PyTorch with graphics processing unit (GPU) acceleration, thus ensuring the efficiency of the computation. The results demonstrate that with the support of high-resolution data, the uncertainties of MCFD simulations can be significantly reduced. The proposed approach has the potential for other applications that involve numerical models with empirical parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Complexity of many-body interactions in transition metals via machine-learned force fields from the TM23 data set

Abstract This work examines challenges associated with the accuracy of machine-learned force fields (MLFFs) for bulk solid and liquid phases ofd-block elements. In exhaustive detail, we contrast the performance of force, energy, and stress predictions across the transition metals for two leading MLFF models: a kernel-based atomic cluster expansion method implemented using sparse Gaussian processes (FLARE), and an equivariant message-passing neural network (NequIP). Early transition metals present higher relative errors and are more difficult to learn relative to late platinum- and coinage-group elements, and this trend persists across model architectures. Trends in complexity of interatomic interactions for different metals are revealed via comparison of the performance of representations with different many-body order and angular resolution. Using arguments based on perturbation theory on the occupied and unoccupieddstates near the Fermi level, we determine that the large, sharpddensity of states both above and below the Fermi level in early transition metals leads to a more complex, harder-to-learn potential energy surface for these metals. Increasing the fictitious electronic temperature (smearing) modifies the angular sensitivity of forces and makes the early transition metal forces easier to learn. This work illustrates challenges in capturing intricate properties of metallic bonding with current leading MLFFs and provides a reference data set for transition metals, aimed at benchmarking the accuracy and improving the development of emerging machine-learned approximations.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural network surrogate models for equations of state

Equation of state (EOS) data provide necessary information for accurate multiphysics modeling, which is necessary for fields such as inertial confinement fusion. Here, we suggest a neural network surrogate model of energy and entropy and use thermodynamic relationships to derive other necessary thermodynamic EOS quantities. We incorporate phase information into the model by training a phase classifier and using phase-specific regression models, which improves the modal prediction accuracy. Our model predicts energy values to 1% relative error and entropy to 3.5% relative error in a log-transformed space. Although sound speed predictions require further improvement, the derived pressure values are accurate within 10% relative error. Our results suggest that neural network models can effectively model EOS for inertial confinement fusion simulation applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards Efficient Uncertainty estimation in deep learning for robust energy prediction in crystal materials

In material science, recent studies have started to explore the potential of using deep learning to improve property prediction from high-fidelity simulations, e.g, density functional theory (DFT). However, the design spaces are sometimes too large and intractable to sample completely. This results in a critical question that is how to evaluate the confidence and robustness of the prediction. In this paper, we propose an efficient approach to estimate uncertainty in deep learning using a single forward pass and then apply it for robust prediction of the total energy in crystal lattice structures. Our approach is built upon the deep kernel learning (DKL) that originally introduces to leverage the expressiveness of deep neural networks as input with a probabilistic prediction of Gaussian processes (GPs) as output. Existing DKL methods have difficulties in the accuracy of predictive uncertainty, training stability, and scaling to large datasets, which lead to significant barriers in real-world applications. We propose to address these challenges by using an inducing point approximate GP in feature space combined with spectral normalization as a regularization. We finally demonstrate our robust performance on an artificial example and a real-world application from materials chemistry.

Bi, Sirui↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gaussian Process Classification for Galaxy Blend Identification in LSST

Abstract A significant fraction of observed galaxies in the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will overlap at least one other galaxy along the same line of sight, in a so-called “blend.” The current standard method of assessing blend likelihood in LSST images relies on counting up the number of intensity peaks in the smoothed image of a blend candidate, but the reliability of this procedure has not yet been comprehensively studied. Here we construct a realistic distribution of blended and unblended galaxies through high-fidelity simulations of LSST-like images, and from this we examine the blend classification accuracy of the standard peak-finding method. Furthermore, we develop a novel Gaussian process blend classifier model, and show that this classifier is competitive with both the peak finding method as well as with a convolutional neural network model. Finally, whereas the peak-finding method does not naturally assign probabilities to its classification estimates, the Gaussian process model does, and we show that the Gaussian process classification probabilities are generally reliable.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2025

Gaussian Process for Flight Delay Prediction: Learning a Stochastic Process

This paper presents a machine-learning approach to predict flight delays. Whereas neural networks are extensively studied for predictive capabilities, they involve non-intuitive design and extensive analysis, particularly in training and optimization processes. Instead, the proposed framework employs Gaussian Processes as a supervised learning technique for flight delay prediction. This data-driven approach trains the model using prior information, specifically the mean and covariance tied to existing data. The proposed Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model employs the day of flight as a pivotal feature for delay forecasting. We analyze flights from various routes and gauge the accuracy of the presented learning technique by comparing the predicted delays with the actual ones. Given the inherent challenges in precisely forecasting delays, we predict the delays with a 95 % confidence interval. Also, an error propagation analysis in the prediction horizon is carried out to determine the optimal time frame for prediction. The proposed method for flight delay prediction is important as airlines can strategize flight operations and issue timely advisories.

stochastic↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning enables national assessment of wind plant controls with implications for land use

Summary As deployment of wind energy continues to expand, computationally efficient tools for predicting wind plant performance over a wide range of layout designs, technology innovations, and spatial locations are increasingly important for policy and investment decisions. We demonstrate two approaches to training a surrogate model to predict annual energy production (AEP) of parameterized wind plant layouts: one using a Gaussian process (GP) and the other using a fully convolutional neural network (FCNN). We leverage the powerful FCNN architecture by encoding wind plant design parameters and output response surface as an image. The FCNN produces more accurate results than the GP with mean absolute errors equivalent to 1% and 1.9% of plant rated power, respectively, although the GP performs well under limited training data and provides useful uncertainty information. We also evaluate a surrogate model for wake steering, enabling a nationwide assessment of the impact of plant control strategies and plant layout decisions. Across two million locations, we find that wake steering strategies boost AEP with relative gains upwards of 3%. Gains are most pronounced at sites without a dominant wind direction and where layout optimization is less fruitful. Additionally, we perform a nationwide sensitivity analysis showing that wake steering can mitigate wake losses from higher density plant layouts. Our results suggest that regions which have not been previously viable for wind deployment due to moderate wind resources are especially well enhanced by wake steering strategies that could help overcome land constraints and inflexible layout options, potentially identifying new deployment opportunities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning with Gradient-Based Optimization of Nuclear Waste Vitrification with Uncertainties and Constraints

Gekko is an optimization suite in Python that solves optimization problems involving mixed-integer, nonlinear, and differential equations. The purpose of this study is to integrate common Machine Learning (ML) algorithms such as Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), support vector regression (SVR), and artificial neural network (ANN) models into Gekko to solve data based optimization problems. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is used alongside ML for better decision making. These methods include ensemble methods, model-specific methods, conformal predictions, and the delta method. An optimization problem involving nuclear waste vitrification is presented to demonstrate the benefit of ML in this field. ML models are compared against the current partial quadratic mixture (PQM) model in an optimization problem in Gekko. GPR with conformal uncertainty was chosen as the best substitute model as it had a lower mean squared error of 0.0025 compared to 0.018 and more confidently predicted a higher waste loading of 37.5 wt% compared to 34 wt%. The example problem shows that these tools can be used in similar industry settings where easier use and better performance is needed over classical approaches. Future works with these tools include expanding them with other regression models and UQ methods, and exploration into other optimization problems or dynamic control.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Beyond optimization—supervised learning applications in relativistic laser-plasma experiments

We explore the applications of machine learning techniques in relativistic laser-plasma experiments beyond optimization purposes. We predict the beam charge of electrons produced in a laser wakefield accelerator given the laser wavefront change caused by a deformable mirror. Machine learning enables feature analysis beyond merely searching for an optimal beam charge, showing that specific aberrations in the laser wavefront are favored in generating higher beam charges. Supervised learning models allow characterizing the measured data quality as well as recognizing irreproducible data and potential outliers. Furthermore, we also include virtual measurement errors in the experimental data to examine the model robustness under these conditions. This work demonstrates how machine learning methods can benefit data analysis and physics interpretation in a highly nonlinear problem of relativistic laser-plasma interaction.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sampling Functions from Gaussian Processes and Structured Covariance Gaussian Networks

When learning aerodynamic models from data, it is critical to incorporate estimates of model uncertainty. This motivates the design of probabilistic aerodynamic databases which can be sampled to generate physically and statistically plausible aerodynamic models. In this talk we discuss how to sample deterministic functions from two different kinds of probabilistic models and demonstrate their use. First, Gaussian Process Regressors (GPRs) are a widely used probabilistic kernel-based model which can be thought of as Gaussian distributions over functions. GPRs are generally trained by maximizing the marginal likelihood of seeing the training data over the kernel parameter space. Sample functions are easily generated by drawing points from the Gaussian distribution at desired input points. However, when the points are not known ahead of time, the classical sampling approach is not possible since successive function samples will generate different function realizations. We present an approach for sampling consistent function evaluations from a GPR over multiple samples. Second, we describe a neural network architecture which learns a conditional Gaussian distribution by maximizing the marginal likelihood at each point in the input space. We then discuss and compare several options for generating sample functions which match this distribution. Finally, we demonstrate the use of these probabilistic aerodynamic models in an atmospheric reentry simulation.

Gaussian process regression↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photometric Classification of Early-time Supernova Light Curves with SCONE

Abstract In this work, we present classification results on early supernova light curves from SCONE, a photometric classifier that uses convolutional neural networks to categorize supernovae (SNe) by type using light-curve data. SCONE is able to identify SN types from light curves at any stage, from the night of initial alert to the end of their lifetimes. Simulated LSST SNe light curves were truncated at 0, 5, 15, 25, and 50 days after the trigger date and used to train Gaussian processes in wavelength and time space to produce wavelength–time heatmaps. SCONE uses these heatmaps to perform six-way classification between SN types Ia, II, Ibc, Ia-91bg, Iax, and SLSN-I. SCONE is able to perform classification with or without redshift, but we show that incorporating redshift information improves performance at each epoch. SCONE achieved 75% overall accuracy at the date of trigger (60% without redshift), and 89% accuracy 50 days after trigger (82% without redshift). SCONE was also tested on bright subsets of SNe ( r < 20 mag) and produced 91% accuracy at the date of trigger (83% without redshift) and 95% five days after trigger (94.7% without redshift). SCONE is the first application of convolutional neural networks to the early-time photometric transient classification problem. All of the data processing and model code developed for this paper can be found in the SCONE software package 1 1 github.com/helenqu/scone located at github.com/helenqu/scone (Qu 2021).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗