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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian sparse learning with preconditioned stochastic gradient MCMC and its applications

Deep neural networks have been successfully employed in an extensive variety of research areas, including solving partial differential equations. Despite its significant success, there are some challenges in effectively training DNN, such as avoiding overfitting in over-parameterized DNNs and accelerating the optimization in DNNs with pathological curvature. Here, we propose a Bayesian type sparse deep learning algorithm. The algorithm utilizes a set of spike-and-slab priors for the parameters in the deep neural network. The hierarchical Bayesian mixture will be trained using an adaptive empirical method. That is, one will alternatively sample from the posterior using preconditioned stochastic gradient Langevin Dynamics (PSGLD), and optimize the latent variables via stochastic approximation. The sparsity of the network is achieved while optimizing the hyperparameters with adaptive searching and penalizing. A popular SG-MCMC approach is Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD). However, considering the complex geometry in the model parameter space in nonconvex learning, updating parameters using a universal step size in each component as in SGLD may cause slow mixing. To address this issue, we apply a computationally manageable preconditioner in the updating rule, which provides a step-size parameter to adapt to local geometric properties. Moreover, by smoothly optimizing the hyperparameter in the preconditioning matrix, our proposed algorithm ensures a decreasing bias, which is introduced by ignoring the correction term in the preconditioned SGLD. According to the existing theoretical framework, we show that the proposed algorithm can asymptotically converge to the correct distribution with a controllable bias under mild conditions. Numerical tests are performed on both synthetic regression problems and learning solutions of elliptic PDE, which demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the present work.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development and transferability of neural-network models for plasma-surface interactions

Plasma-surface interactions are increasingly critical to modern technologies; yet, accurate molecular dynamics simulations remain limited by the capabilities of interatomic potentials. Deep Potentials (DPs) promise to revolutionize the field by providing a systematic method for producing accurate interatomic potentials. The primary challenge of DP development is selecting a dataset, which efficiently spans the set of atomic environments one expects to encounter in the subsequent molecular dynamics simulations. The computational cost of density functional theory calculations, which are the typical basis for DP development, makes it impossible to directly verify the quality of a given DP. To address this challenge, we explore the development of a deep-learned interatomic potential, “DeepREBO,” trained to reproduce the behavior of the REBO2 empirical potential, enabling direct validation of training methodology and transferability. Using an active learning framework, we begin with a minimal dataset and iteratively expand it to train a Deep Potential-Smooth Edition model that faithfully reproduces REBO2 results for 25 eV hydrogen bombardment of diamond (001), a particularly challenging case. We show that small, carefully curated datasets can outperform large, unguided ones, with effective models requiring fewer than 15 000 snapshots. Subsequent transferability tests demonstrate that while DeepREBO generalizes well to diamond (111) surfaces, performance degrades for amorphous carbon or higher-energy impacts, highlighting the need for use-case-specific training data. We also evaluate methods to improve short-range repulsion. This study outlines best practices for training robust deep potentials and underscores the importance of dataset design for predictive plasma simulations.

Ab-initio molecular dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2024

TNet: A Model-Constrained Tikhonov Network Approach for Inverse Problems

Deep learning (DL), in particular deep neural networks, by default is purely data-driven and in general does not require physics. This is the strength of DL but also one of its key limitations when applied to science and engineering problems in which underlying physical properties—such as stability, conservation, and positivity—and accuracy are required. DL methods in their original forms are often not capable of respecting the underlying mathematical models or achieving desired accuracy even in big-data regimes. On the other hand, many data-driven science and engineering problems, such as inverse problems, typically have limited experimental or observational data, and DL would overfit the data in this case. Leveraging information encoded in the underlying mathematical models, we argue, not only compensates for missing information in low data regimes but also provides opportunities to equip DL methods with the underlying physics, hence promoting better generalization. This paper develops a model-constrained DL approach and its variant TNet—a Tikhonov neural network—which are capable of learning not only information hidden in the training data but also in the underlying mathematical models to solve inverse problems governed by partial differential equations in low data regimes. We provide the constructions and some theoretical results for the proposed approaches for both linear and nonlinear inverse problems. Since TNet is designed to learn inverse solutions with Tikhonov regularization, it is interpretable: in fact it recovers Tikhonov solutions for linear cases while potentially approximating Tikhonov solutions for nonlinear inverse problems. We also prove that data randomization can enhance not only the smoothness of the networks but also their generalizations. Comprehensive numerical results confirm the theoretical findings and show that with even as little as 1 training data sample for one-dimensional (1D) deconvolution, 5 for an inverse 2D heat conductivity problem, 100 for inverse initial conditions for a time-dependent 2D Burgers’s equation, and 50 for inverse initial conditions for 2D Navier–Stokes equations, TNet solutions can be as accurate as Tikhonov solutions while being several orders of magnitude faster. Furthermore, this is possible owing to the model-constrained term, replications, and randomization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiphysics Meshfree Degradation Modeling of Energy Storage Materials with Kernel Enrichment

Energy storage materials exhibit strong electro-chemo-mechanical coupling and highly anisotropic material properties, contributing to the formation and propagation of micro-cracking during charge/discharge cycling and ultimately diminishing performance and service life. With microstructural images supplied by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), pixel-based meshfree model construction by the reproducing kernel particle method (RKPM) is used to represent the complex material microstructures that dictate the coupled physics of these systems. Traditional electro-chemo-mechanical models rely on mesh-based finite element methods, which can lead to difficulties in meshing such complex geometries and capturing crack propagation due to mesh dependency. The first kernel enrichment discussed will be the interface modified reproducing kernel (IM-RK) [1, 2], constructed by scaling a smooth kernel function with an interface-distance function to achieve strategic discontinuity types (i.e. weak discontinuities for strain discontinuities and strong discontinuities for cracks) and alleviate Gibbs oscillations near these transition zones. The IM-RK is especially useful for areas in which a known discontinuity-type is expected a priori. The second kernel enrichment to be discussed is a neural network-enhanced reproducing kernel (NN-RK) [3, 4], which is introduced to effectively model non-obvious damage and crack propagation in the material microstructures; the location, orientation, and solution transition near a localization are automatically captured by superimposed block-level NN optimizations. This NN enrichment approach allows for effective modeling of localizations via a fixed background discretization, relieving tedious efforts for adaptive refinement in traditional mesh-based methods. Applications to the heterogeneous microstructures of Li-ion battery cathodes will be presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. NN-RK is additionally used to inform how crack opening and closure in turn affect the electro-chemo-mechanical responses in the material microstructure. Reference: [1] Wang, Y., Baek, J., Tang, Y. et al. "Support vector machine guided reproducing kernel particle method for image-based modeling of microstructures," Comput Mech 73, 907-942 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00466-023-02394-9. [2] Susuki, K., Allen, J. & Chen, J. S.. "Image-based modeling of coupled electro-chemo-mechanical behavior of Li-ion battery cathode using an interface-modified reproducing kernel particle method," Engineering with Computers (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00366-024-02016-9. [3] Baek, J., Chen, J. S., Susuki, K., "Neural Network enhanced Reproducing Kernel Particle Method for Modeling Localizations," International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering, Vol. 123, 4422-4454 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1002/nme.7040.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Kernel Enriched Meshfree Multiphysics Degradation Modeling of Energy Storage Materials

Energy storage materials exhibit strong electro-chemo-mechanical coupling and highly anisotropic material properties, contributing to the formation and propagation of micro-cracking during charge/discharge cycling and ultimately diminishing performance and service life. With microstructural images supplied by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), pixel-based meshfree model construction by the reproducing kernel particle method (RKPM) is used to represent the complex material microstructures that dictate the coupled physics of these systems. Traditional electro-chemo-mechanical models rely on mesh-based finite element methods, which can lead to difficulties in meshing such complex geometries and capturing crack propagation due to mesh dependency. The first kernel enrichment discussed will be the interface modified reproducing kernel (IM-RK) [1, 2], constructed by scaling a smooth kernel function with an interface-distance function to achieve strategic discontinuity types (i.e. weak discontinuities for strain discontinuities and strong discontinuities for cracks) and alleviate Gibbs oscillations near these transition zones. The IM-RK is especially useful for areas in which a known discontinuity-type is expected a priori. The second kernel enrichment to be discussed is a neural network-enhanced reproducing kernel (NN-RK) [3, 4], which is introduced to effectively model non-obvious damage and crack propagation in the material microstructures; the location, orientation, and solution transition near a localization are automatically captured by superimposed block-level NN optimizations. This NN enrichment approach allows for effective modeling of localizations via a fixed background discretization, relieving tedious efforts for adaptive refinement in traditional mesh-based methods. Applications to the heterogeneous microstructures of Li-ion battery cathodes will be presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. NN-RK is additionally used to inform how crack opening and closure in turn affect the electro-chemo-mechanical responses in the material microstructure. References: [1] Wang, Y., Baek, J., Tang, Y. et al. "Support vector machine guided reproducing kernel particle method for image-based modeling of microstructures," Comput Mech 73, 907-942 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00466-023-02394-9. [2] Susuki, K., Allen, J. & Chen, J. S.. "Image-based modeling of coupled electro-chemo-mechanical behavior of Li-ion battery cathode using an interface-modified reproducing kernel particle method," Engineering with Computers (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00366-024-02016-9. [3] Baek, J., Chen, J. S., Susuki, K., "Neural Network enhanced Reproducing Kernel Particle Method for Modeling Localizations," International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering, Vol. 123, 4422-4454 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1002/nme.7040.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A neural network‐enhanced reproducing kernel particle method for modeling strain localization

Abstract Modeling the localized intensive deformation in a damaged solid requires highly refined discretization for accurate prediction, which significantly increases the computational cost. Although adaptive model refinement can be employed for enhanced effectiveness, it is cumbersome for the traditional mesh‐based methods to perform while modeling the evolving localizations. In this work, neural network‐enhanced reproducing kernel particle method (NN‐RKPM) is proposed, where the location, orientation, and shape of the solution transition near a localization is automatically captured by the NN approximation via a block‐level neural network (NN) optimization. The weights and biases in the blocked parameterization network control the location and orientation of the localization. The designed basic four‐kernel NN block is capable of capturing a triple junction or a quadruple junction topological pattern, while more complicated localization topological patters are captured by the superposition of multiple four‐kernel NN blocks. The standard RK approximation is then utilized to approximate the smooth part of the solution, which permits a much coarser discretization than the high‐resolution discretization needed to capture sharp solution transitions with the conventional methods. A regularization of the NN approximation is additionally introduced for discretization‐independent material responses. The effectiveness of the proposed NN‐RKPM is verified by a series of numerical verifications.

Baek, Jonghyuk↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physics-informed machine-learning model of temperature evolution under solid phase processes

We model temperature dynamics during Shear Assisted Proccess Extrusion (ShAPE), a solid phase process that plasticizes feedstock with a rotating tool and subsequently extrudes it into a consolidated tube, rod, or wire. Control of temperature is critical during ShAPE processing to avoid liquefaction, ensure smooth extrusion, and develop desired material properties in the extruded products. Accurate modeling of the complicated thermo-mechanical feedbacks between process inputs, material temperature, and heat generation presents a significant barrier to predictive modeling and process design. In particular, connecting micro-structural scale mechanisms of heat generation to macro-scale predictions of temperature can become computationally intractable. In this work we use a neural network (NN) model of heat generation to bridge this gap, by combining it with a simplified model of the temperature dynamics due to conduction and convection to capture the macro scale evolution of temperature. We inform the construction of the NN heat generation model using crystal plasticity simulations at the micro-structural scale to model the effects of process inputs on generation of heat. We achieved close fits of the temperature dynamics model to a diverse experimental data-set. Further, the relationships learned by the NN model between process inputs and heat generation showed qualitative agreement with those predicted by crystal plasticity simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Persistent Classification: Understanding Adversarial Attacks by Studying Decision Boundary Dynamics

ABSTRACT There are a number of hypotheses underlying the existence of adversarial examples for classification problems. These include the high‐dimensionality of the data, the high codimension in the ambient space of the data manifolds of interest, and that the structure of machine learning models may encourage classifiers to develop decision boundaries close to data points. This article proposes a new framework for studying adversarial examples that does not depend directly on the distance to the decision boundary. Similarly to the smoothed classifier literature, we define a (natural or adversarial) data point to be ( γ , σ)‐stable if the probability of the same classification is at least for points sampled in a Gaussian neighborhood of the point with a given standard deviation . We focus on studying the differences between persistence metrics along interpolants of natural and adversarial points. We show that adversarial examples have significantly lower persistence than natural examples for large neural networks in the context of the MNIST and ImageNet datasets. We connect this lack of persistence with decision boundary geometry by measuring angles of interpolants with respect to decision boundaries. Finally, we connect this approach with robustness by developing a manifold alignment gradient metric and demonstrating the increase in robustness that can be achieved when training with the addition of this metric.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep learning-based spatio-temporal estimate of greenhouse gas emissions using satellite data

Accurate estimation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions is very important for developing mitigation strategies to climate change by controlling and reducing GHG emissions. This project aims to develop multiple deep learning approaches to estimate anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions using multiple types of satellite data. NO2 concentration is chosen as an example of GHGs to evaluate the proposed approach. Two sentinel satellites (sentinel-2 and sentinel-5P) provide multiscale observations of GHGs from 10-60m resolution (sentinel-2) to ~kilometer scale resolution (sentinel-5P). Among multiple deep learning (DL) architectures evaluated, two best DL models demonstrate that key features of spatio-temporal satellite data and additional information (e.g., observation times and/or coordinates of ground stations) can be extracted using convolutional neural networks and feed forward neural networks, respectively. In particular, irregular time series data from different NO 2 observation stations limit the flexibility of long short-term memory architecture, requiring zero-padding to fill in missing data. However, deep neural operator (DNO) architecture can stack time-series data as input, providing the flexibility of input structure without zero-padding. As a result, the DNO outperformed other deep learning architectures to account for time-varying features. Overall, temporal patterns with smooth seasonal variations were predicted very well, while frequent fluctuation patterns were not predicted well. In addition, uncertainty quantification using conformal inference method is performed to account for prediction ranges. Overall, this research will lead to a new groundwork for estimating greenhouse gas concentrations using multiple satellite data to enhance our capability of tracking the cause of climate change and developing mitigation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating charge estimation in molecular dynamics simulations using physics-informed neural networks: corrosion applications

Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations are used to understand the effects of corrosion on metallic materials in salt brine. Reactive force fields in classical MD enable accurate modeling of bond formation and breakage in the aqueous medium and at the metal-electrolyte interface, while also facilitating dynamic partial charge equilibration. However, MD simulations are computationally intensive and unsuitable for modeling the long time scales characteristic of corrosive phenomena. To address this, we develop reduced-order machine learning models that provide accurate and efficient predictions of charge density in corrosive environments. Specifically, we use Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to forecast charge density evolution based on atomic environments represented by Smooth Overlap of Atomic Positions (SOAP) descriptors. A physics-informed loss function enforces charge neutrality and electronegativity equivalence. The atomic charges predicted by the deep learning model trained on this work were obtained two orders of magnitude faster than those from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, with an error of less than 3% compared to the MD-obtained charges, even in extrapolative scenarios, while adhering to physical constraints. This demonstrates the excellent accuracy, computational efficiency, and validity of the developed model. Lastly, even though developed for corrosion, these protocols are formulated in a phenomenon-agnostic manner, allowing application to various variable-charge interatomic potentials and related fields.

Atomistic models↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gaussian Process Classification for Galaxy Blend Identification in LSST

Abstract A significant fraction of observed galaxies in the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will overlap at least one other galaxy along the same line of sight, in a so-called “blend.” The current standard method of assessing blend likelihood in LSST images relies on counting up the number of intensity peaks in the smoothed image of a blend candidate, but the reliability of this procedure has not yet been comprehensively studied. Here we construct a realistic distribution of blended and unblended galaxies through high-fidelity simulations of LSST-like images, and from this we examine the blend classification accuracy of the standard peak-finding method. Furthermore, we develop a novel Gaussian process blend classifier model, and show that this classifier is competitive with both the peak finding method as well as with a convolutional neural network model. Finally, whereas the peak-finding method does not naturally assign probabilities to its classification estimates, the Gaussian process model does, and we show that the Gaussian process classification probabilities are generally reliable.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data optimization for large batch distributed training of deep neural networks

Distributed training in deep learning (DL) is common practice as data and models grow. The current practice for distributed training of deep neural networks faces the challenges of communication bottlenecks when operating at scale, and model accuracy deterioration with an increase in global batch size. Present solutions focus on improving message exchange efficiency as well as implementing techniques to tweak batch sizes and models in the training process. The loss of training accuracy typically happens because the loss function gets trapped in a local minima. We observe that the loss landscape minimization is shaped by both the model and training data and propose a data optimization approach that utilizes machine learning to implicitly smooth out the loss landscape resulting in fewer local minima. Our approach filters out data points which are less important to feature learning, enabling us to speed up the training of models on larger batch sizes to improved accuracy.

Gahlot, Shubhankar↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extracting the Galactic Center excess’ source-count distribution with neural nets

The two leading hypotheses for the Galactic Center excess (GCE) in the Fermi data are an unresolved population of faint millisecond pulsars (MSPs) and dark-matter (DM) annihilation. The dichotomy between these explanations is typically reflected by modeling them as two separate emission components. However, point sources (PSs) such as MSPs become statistically degenerate with smooth Poisson emission in the ultrafaint limit (formally where each source is expected to contribute much less than one photon on average), leading to an ambiguity that can render questions such as whether the emission is PS-like or Poissonian in nature ill defined. We present a conceptually new approach that describes the PS and Poisson emission in a unified manner and only afterwards derives constraints on the Poissonian component from the so obtained results. For the implementation of this approach, we leverage deep learning techniques, centered around a neural network-based method for histogram regression that expresses uncertainties in terms of quantiles. We demonstrate that our method is robust against a number of systematics that have plagued previous approaches, in particular DM/PS misattribution. In the Fermi data, we find a faint GCE described by a median source-count distribution (SCD) peaked at a flux of ~ 4 x 10 -11 counts cm -2 s -1 (corresponding to ~ 3-4 expected counts per PS), which would require N ~ $\mathscr{O}$(10 4 ) sources to explain the entire excess (median value N = 29,300 across the sky). Although faint, this SCD allows us to derive the constraint η ρ ≤ 66% for the Poissonian fraction of the GCE flux η ρ at 95% confidence, suggesting that a substantial amount of the GCE flux is due to PSs.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Molecular dynamics studies of knotted polymers

Molecular dynamics calculations have been used to explore the influence of knots on the strength of a polymer strand. In particular, the mechanism of breaking 31, 41, 51, and 52 prime knots has been studied using two very different models to represent the polymer: (1) the generic coarse-grained (CG) bead model of polymer physics and (2) a state-of-the-art machine learned atomistic neural network (NN) potential for polyethylene derived from electronic structure calculations. While there is a broad overall agreement between the results on the influence of the pulling rate on chain rupture based on the CG and atomistic NN models, for the simple 31 and 41 knots, significant differences are found for the more complex 51 and 52 knots. Notably, in the latter case, the NN model more frequently predicts that these knots can break not only at the crossings at the entrance/exit but also at one of the central crossing points. The relative smoothness of the CG potential energy surface also leads to stabilization of tighter knots compared to the more realistic NN model.

DelloStritto, Mark (ORCID:0000000206785860)↗
DOE OSTI2025

The design space of E(3)-equivariant atom-centred interatomic potentials

Abstract Molecular dynamics simulation is an important tool in computational materials science and chemistry, and in the past decade it has been revolutionized by machine learning. This rapid progress in machine learning interatomic potentials has produced a number of new architectures in just the past few years. Particularly notable among these are the atomic cluster expansion, which unified many of the earlier ideas around atom-density-based descriptors, and Neural Equivariant Interatomic Potentials (NequIP), a message-passing neural network with equivariant features that exhibited state-of-the-art accuracy at the time. Here we construct a mathematical framework that unifies these models: atomic cluster expansion is extended and recast as one layer of a multi-layer architecture, while the linearized version of NequIP is understood as a particular sparsification of a much larger polynomial model. Our framework also provides a practical tool for systematically probing different choices in this unified design space. An ablation study of NequIP, via a set of experiments looking at in- and out-of-domain accuracy and smooth extrapolation very far from the training data, sheds some light on which design choices are critical to achieving high accuracy. A much-simplified version of NequIP, which we call BOTnet (for body-ordered tensor network), has an interpretable architecture and maintains its accuracy on benchmark datasets.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2022

End-to-end learning of multiple sequence alignments with differentiable Smith–Waterman

Abstract Motivation Multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) of homologous sequences contain information on structural and functional constraints and their evolutionary histories. Despite their importance for many downstream tasks, such as structure prediction, MSA generation is often treated as a separate pre-processing step, without any guidance from the application it will be used for. Results Here, we implement a smooth and differentiable version of the Smith–Waterman pairwise alignment algorithm that enables jointly learning an MSA and a downstream machine learning system in an end-to-end fashion. To demonstrate its utility, we introduce SMURF (Smooth Markov Unaligned Random Field), a new method that jointly learns an alignment and the parameters of a Markov Random Field for unsupervised contact prediction. We find that SMURF learns MSAs that mildly improve contact prediction on a diverse set of protein and RNA families. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate that by connecting our differentiable alignment module to AlphaFold2 and maximizing predicted confidence, we can learn MSAs that improve structure predictions over the initial MSAs. Interestingly, the alignments that improve AlphaFold predictions are self-inconsistent and can be viewed as adversarial. This work highlights the potential of differentiable dynamic programming to improve neural network pipelines that rely on an alignment and the potential dangers of optimizing predictions of protein sequences with methods that are not fully understood. Availability and implementation Our code and examples are available at: https://github.com/spetti/SMURF. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recipes for when physics fails: recovering robust learning of physics informed neural networks

Abstract Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have been shown to be effective in solving partial differential equations by capturing the physics induced constraints as a part of the training loss function. This paper shows that a PINN can be sensitive to errors in training data and overfit itself in dynamically propagating these errors over the domain of the solution of the PDE. It also shows how physical regularizations based on continuity criteria and conservation laws fail to address this issue and rather introduce problems of their own causing the deep network to converge to a physics-obeying local minimum instead of the global minimum. We introduce Gaussian process (GP) based smoothing that recovers the performance of a PINN and promises a robust architecture against noise/errors in measurements. Additionally, we illustrate an inexpensive method of quantifying the evolution of uncertainty based on the variance estimation of GPs on boundary data. Robust PINN performance is also shown to be achievable by choice of sparse sets of inducing points based on sparsely induced GPs. We demonstrate the performance of our proposed methods and compare the results from existing benchmark models in literature for time-dependent Schrödinger and Burgers’ equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗