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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

Probabilistic-graphical and phenomenological analysis of combined bending-torsion fatigue reliability data

Fatigue data generated by three combined bending-torsion fatigue reliability research machines at The University of Arizona are probabilistic-graphically and phenomenologically analyzed. Distributions that are applicable to fatique life and static strength data are discussed. Phenomenological justifications for the use of these distributions are presented. It is found that the normal distribution represents the cycles-to-failure data at the highest stress levels best. The lognormal distribution appears to fit the cycles-to-failure data at the lower stress levels best and quite well at all stress levels including the highest. A regression analysis and least-squares goodness-of-fit test was performed for normal and lognormal plots. In most cases, the correlation coefficient gave a better fit to the data using the normal distribution, but the difference between the two was so slight that positive discrimination could not be made.

Kececioglu, D.↗

Understanding Biases in Sample Preparation Techniques for Coupled Scanning Electron Microscopy and MAMA PuO 2 Morphological Analysis

In this project, the scanning electron microscopy (SEM) sampling method used during the statistical design study (SDS) was investigated to determine if any sampling biases were present in the analyzed data. Using standard particle size distribution powders from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST 1984 standard reference material) with the origin wet dispersion method, it was determined that a bias to smaller particles was present. This was supported by theoretical calculations using Stokes’ law to determine the settling rate of spherical particles of roughly the same size and mass as those found in the SDS. Based on the theoretical calculations, it was determined that the settling rate for each of the 76 powder sets in the SDS could be unique based on specific particle shape and mass distributions, making a universal correction factor/formula not applicable. Therefore, priority shifted to developing an improved wet dispersion method that significantly reduced the particle settling rate for all particle size and shapes. This was achieved by replacing the original solvent (isopropyl alcohol) with a heavy liquid (lithium heteropolytungstates), which dramatically slowed the settling rate and allowed for the capture of a suitable homogeneous aliquot. SEM imaging and Morphological Analysis for Material Attribution (MAMA) software analysis were conducted on the NIST standard, and the SEM/MAMA data were compared to data captured by a dynamic image analysis particle size analyzer. The resulting data confirmed that the new wet dispersion method does indeed deliver an improved representative aliquot to the SEM stub. For instance, in the NIST certificate, the average particle size is ~17.1 µm ± 2.2 µm with a normal distribution. The initial wet dispersion method resulted in a drastically reduced average particle size of 6.1 µm in addition to a non-representative heavy bi-modal distribution whereas the improved LST wet dispersion method resulting in an average particle size that was much closer to the NIST certificate (12.7 µm) with a similar normal distribution. Although the improved method was still short of the NIST certificate average, atomic force microscopy analysis determined that the resulting ~20-25% reduction in size was due to particles sinking into the carbon sticky tape used for SEM imaging. It is believed that that this bias can be calibrated in a much more predicable manner than the original settling rate bias. In addition, the matching normal distribution curves between the NIST certificate and the heavy liquid method indicate a much-improved representative aliquot has been sampled and imaged. A surrogate CeO 2 powder was used to reflect PuO 2 more accurately and to aid in implementing radiological controls and shielding. The resulting data sets from the SEM/MAMA method and the particle size analyzer give almost identical average particle sizes and particle distribution statistics. Future work will re-analyze several select runs from the SDS to determine if morphological signatures can be found with the improved sampling method.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Tests of Two Full-Scale Propellers with Different Pitch Distributions, at Blade Angles up to 60 Degrees

Two 3-blade 10-foot propellers were operated in front of a liquid-cooled engine nacelle. The propellers differed only in pitch distribution; one had normal distribution (nearly constant pitch for a blade angle of 15 degrees at 0.75 radius), and the other had the pitch of the tip sections decreased with respect to that for the shank sections (blade angle of 35 degrees for nearly constant pitch distribution). Propeller blade angles at 0.75r from 15 degrees to sixty degrees, corresponding to design speeds up to 500 miles per hour, were investigated. Propeller blade angles at 0.75r from 15 degrees to 60 degrees, corresponding to design speeds up to 500 miles per hour, were investigated. The results indicated that the propulsive efficiency at a blade angle of 60 degrees was about 9 percent less than the maximum value of 86 percent, which occurred at blade angle of about 30 degrees. The efficiency at a blade angle of 60 degrees was increased about 7 percent by correcting for the effect of a spinner and, at a blade angle of 30 degrees about 3 percent. The peak efficiencies for the propeller having the washed-out pitch distribution were slightly less than for the normal propeller but the take-off efficiency was generally higher.

Biermann, David↗

Using Bayesian Methodology to Estimate Liquefied Natural Gas Leak Frequencies

This analysis provides estimates on the leak frequencies of nine components found in liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities. Data was taken from a variety of sources, with 25 different data sets included in the analysis. A hierarchical Bayesian model was used that assumes that the log leak frequency follows a normal distribution and the logarithm of the mean of this normal distribution is a linear function of the logarithm of the fractional leak area. This type of model uses uninformed prior distributions that are updated with applicable data. Separate models are fit for each component listed. Five order-of-magnitude fractional leak areas are considered, based on the flow area of the component. Three types of supporting analyses were performed: sensitivity of the model to the data set used, sensitivity of the leak frequency estimates to differences in the model structure or prior distributions, and sufficiency of sample sized used for convergence. Recommended leak frequency distributions for all component types and leak sizes are given. These leak frequency predictions can be used for quantitative risk assessments in the future.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

An approximation to student's t-distribution

Three equations relate Student's t-distribution to standard normal distribution with maximum error of less than 0.8 percent. First equation, used for degrees of freedom (v) greater than 2, expresses t variable in terms of standard normal variable z. For v=1 and 2, second and third equations express t exactly in terms of probability P.

Rummler, D. R.↗

Robust state estimation of feeding–blending systems in continuous pharmaceutical manufacturing

State estimation is a fundamental part of monitoring, control, and real-time optimization in continuous pharmaceutical manufacturing. For nonlinear dynamic systems with hard constraints, moving horizon estimation (MHE) can estimate the current state by solving a well-defined optimization problem where process complexities are explicitly considered as constraints. Traditional MHE techniques assume random measurement noise governed by some normal distributions. However, state estimates can be unreliable if noise is not normally distributed or measurements are contaminated with gross or systematic errors. In this paper, to improve the accuracy and robustness of state estimation, we incorporate robust estimators within the standard MHE skeleton, leading to an extended MHE framework. The proposed MHE approach is implemented on two pharmaceutical continuous feeding–blending system (FBS) configurations which include loss-in-weight (LIW) feeders and continuous blenders. Numerical results show that our MHE approach is robust to gross errors and can provide reliable state estimates when measurements are contaminated with outliers and drifts. Finally and moreover, the efficient solution of the MHE realized in this work, suggests feasible application of on-line state estimation on more complex continuous pharmaceutical processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Mechanism of the Influence of Poly- and Nanocrystallinity on the Parameters of Pseudoelastic Deformation Curves of Alloys with the Shape Memory Effect

The influence of poly- and nanocrystallinity on the parameters of pseudoelastic deformation curves of alloys with the shape memory effect (SME) has been analyzed within the theory of diffuse martensitic transformations. The functional and quantitative dependence of the coefficient of deformation (martensitic) hardening of an alloy with the SME on the grain size d and orientational factor M, dσ/dε ~ 1/Md{sup 2}, has been obtained for the first time, taking into account the normal distribution density of grains over their orientations and the log-normal distribution density over grain sizes d. A comparison of the found dependence with the data in the literature for a nanocrystalline TiNi alloy with nanograin sizes in the range of 8–90 nm shows good consistency between the theory and experiments.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Analysis of multipacting threshold sensitivity to the random distributions of the secondary electron yield parameters

The way multipacting develops, depends strongly on the secondary emission property of the surface material. The knowledge of secondary electron yield is crucial for accurate prediction of the multipacting threshold. Variations in secondary electron yield parameters from experimental measurements create uncertainty, stemming from handling and surface preparation, and these uncertainties significantly affect multipacting threshold predictions. Despite their significance, the previous studies on the multipacting phenomenon did not adequately address the effect of an assumed random distribution of the secondary emission parameters on the multipacting threshold. Therefore, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive statistical study on how the different random distributions of the secondary emission parameters and, as a result, the uncertainty in the secondary electron yield affect multipacting thresholds. We focus on three commonly used distributions, namely uniform, normal, and truncated normal distributions, to define the uncertainty of random inputs. We use the chaos polynomial expansion method to determine how much each of the random parameters contributes to the multipacting threshold uncertainty. Additionally, we calculate Sobol sensitivity indices to evaluate the impact of the individual parameters or groups of parameters on the model outputs and study how different random distributions of these parameters affected the Sobol index results.

physics↗

Variance-Reduced Accelerated First-Order Methods: Central Limit Theorems and Confidence Statements

In this paper, we consider a strongly convex stochastic optimization problem and propose three classes of variable sample-size stochastic first-order methods: (i) the standard stochastic gradient descent method, (ii) its accelerated variant, and (iii) the stochastic heavy-ball method. In each scheme, the exact gradients are approximated by averaging across an increasing batch size of sampled gradients. We prove that when the sample size increases at a geometric rate, the generated estimates converge in mean to the optimal solution at an analogous geometric rate for schemes (i)–(iii). Based on this result, we provide central limit statements, whereby it is shown that the rescaled estimation errors converge in distribution to a normal distribution with the associated covariance matrix dependent on the Hessian matrix, the covariance of the gradient noise, and the step length. If the sample size increases at a polynomial rate, we show that the estimation errors decay at a corresponding polynomial rate and establish the associated central limit theorems (CLTs). Under certain conditions, we discuss how both the algorithms and the associated limit theorems may be extended to constrained and nonsmooth regimes. As a result, we provide an avenue to construct confidence regions for the optimal solution based on the established CLTs and test the theoretical findings on a stochastic parameter estimation problem.

Lei, Jinlong↗

Relaying for Distribution and Microgrids Evolving from Radial to Bidirectional Power Flow

As distributed energy resources (DERs) achieve higher penetration levels in distribution systems, the normal flow of power (and fault current) is no longer unidirectional, from substation source to load (or fault). The increased importance of DERs has also led to revisions in the DER interconnection standards, particularly voltage regulation and ride-through, with publication of a new IEEE Standard 1547 2018. These changes have complicated normal distribution system operation, and they will also complicate distribution system protection. The U.S. Department of Energy undertook a review of the protection state of the art for this new environment in order to identify gaps and propose near-term solutions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Protective Relaying for Distribution and Microgrids Evolving from Radial to Bi-Directional Power Flow

As distributed energy resources (DER) achieve higher penetration levels in distribution systems, the normal flow of power (and fault current) is no longer unidirectional, from substation source to load (or fault). The increased importance of DER has also led to pending revisions in the DER interconnection standards, particularly voltage regulation and ride-through, with publication of a new IEEE Standard 1547 expected in early 2018. These changes have complicated normal distribution system operation, and they will also complicate distribution system protection. The U. S. Department of Energy undertook a review of protection state-of-the-art for this new environment in order to identify gaps and propose near-term solutions.

McDermott, Tom↗

Distribution Functions of Sizes and Fluxes Determined from Supra-Arcade Downflows

The frequency distributions of sizes and fluxes of supra-arcade downflows (SADs) provide information about the process of their creation. For example, a fractal creation process may be expected to yield a power-law distribution of sizes and/or fluxes. We examine 120 cross-sectional areas and magnetic flux estimates found by Savage & McKenzie for SADs, and find that (1) the areas are consistent with a log-normal distribution and (2) the fluxes are consistent with both a log-normal and an exponential distribution. Neither set of measurements is compatible with a power-law distribution nor a normal distribution. As a demonstration of the applicability of these findings to improved understanding of reconnection, we consider a simple SAD growth scenario with minimal assumptions, capable of producing a log-normal distribution.

McKenzie, D.↗

Statistical analysis of the 70 meter antenna surface distortions

Statistical analysis of surface distortions of the 70 meter NASA/JPL antenna, located at Goldstone, was performed. The purpose of this analysis is to verify whether deviations due to gravity loading can be treated as quasi-random variables with normal distribution. Histograms of the RF pathlength error distribution for several antenna elevation positions were generated. The results indicate that the deviations from the ideal antenna surface are not normally distributed. The observed density distribution for all antenna elevation angles is taller and narrower than the normal density, which results in large positive values of kurtosis and a significant amount of skewness. The skewness of the distribution changes from positive to negative as the antenna elevation changes from zenith to horizon.

Kiedron, K.↗

Estimation of area-averaged rainfall over tropical oceans from microwave radiometry - A single channel approach

This paper presents a new simple retrieval algorithm for estimating area-time averaged rain rates over tropical oceans by using single channel microwave measurements from satellites. The algorithm was tested by using the Nimbus-5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer and a simple microwave radiative transfer model to retrieve seasonal 5-deg x 5-deg area averaged rainrate over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific from December 1973 to November 1974. The brightness temperatures were collected and analyzed into histograms for each season and in each grid box from December 1973 to November 1974. The histograms suggest a normal distribution of background noise plus a skewed rain distribution at the higher brightness temperatures. By using a statistical estimation procedure based upon normally distributed background noise, the rain distribution was separated from the raw histogram. The radiative transfer model was applied to the rain-only distribution to retrieve area-time averaged rainrates throughout the tropics. Despite limitations of single channel information, the retrieved seasonal rain rates agree well in the open ocean with expectations based upon previous estimates of tropical rainfall over the oceans.

Shin, Kyung-Sup↗

Statistical distribution of mechanical properties for three graphite-epoxy material systems

Graphite-epoxy composites are playing an increasing role as viable alternative materials in structural applications necessitating thorough investigation into the predictability and reproducibility of their material strength properties. This investigation was concerned with tension, compression, and short beam shear coupon testing of large samples from three different material suppliers to determine their statistical strength behavior. Statistical results indicate that a two Parameter Weibull distribution model provides better overall characterization of material behavior for the graphite-epoxy systems tested than does the standard Normal distribution model that is employed for most design work. While either a Weibull or Normal distribution model provides adequate predictions for average strength values, the Weibull model provides better characterization in the lower tail region where the predictions are of maximum design interest. The two sets of the same material were found to have essentially the same material properties, and indicate that repeatability can be achieved.

Reese, C.↗

Determination of statistics for any rotation of axes of a bivariate normal elliptical distribution

Transformation of statistics from a dimensional set to another dimensional set involves linear functions of the original set of statistics. Similarly, linear functions will transform statistics within a dimensional set such that the new statistics are relevant to a new set of coordinate axes. A restricted case of the latter is the rotation of axes in a coordinate system involving any two correlated random variables. A special case is the transformation for horizontal wind distributions. Wind statistics are usually provided in terms of wind speed and direction (measured clockwise from north) or in east-west and north-south components. A direct application of this technique allows the determination of appropriate wind statistics parallel and normal to any preselected flight path of a space vehicle. Among the constraints for launching space vehicles are critical values selected from the distribution of the expected winds parallel to and normal to the flight path. These procedures are applied to space vehicle launches at Cape Kennedy, Florida.

Falls, L. W.↗

Analysis of Regolith Simulant Ejecta Distributions from Normal Incident Hypervelocity Impact

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has established the Constellation Program. The Constellation Program has defined one of its many goals as long-term lunar habitation. Critical to the design of a lunar habitat is an understanding of the lunar surface environment; of specific importance is the primary meteoroid and subsequent ejecta environment. The document, NASA SP-8013 'Meteoroid Environment Model Near Earth to Lunar Surface', was developed for the Apollo program in 1969 and contains the latest definition of the lunar ejecta environment. There is concern that NASA SP-8013 may over-estimate the lunar ejecta environment. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has initiated several tasks to improve the accuracy of our understanding of the lunar surface ejecta environment. This paper reports the results of experiments on projectile impact into powdered pumice and unconsolidated JSC-1A Lunar Mare Regolith simulant targets. Projectiles were accelerated to velocities between 2.45 and 5.18 km/s at normal incidence using the Ames Vertical Gun Range (AVGR). The ejected particles were detected by thin aluminum foil targets strategically placed around the impact site and angular ejecta distributions were determined. Assumptions were made to support the analysis which include; assuming ejecta spherical symmetry resulting from normal impact and all ejecta particles were of mean target particle size. This analysis produces a hemispherical flux density distribution of ejecta with sufficient velocity to penetrate the aluminum foil detectors.

Edwards, David L.↗

On a framework for generating PoD curves assisted by numerical simulations

The Probability of Detection (PoD) curve method has emerged as an important tool for the assessment of the performance of NDE techniques, a topic of particular interest to the nuclear industry where inspection qualification is very important. The conventional experimental means of generating PoD curves though, can be expensive, requiring large data sets (covering defects and test conditions), and equipment and operator time. Several methods of achieving faster estimates for PoD curves using physics-based modelling have been developed to address this problem. Numerical modelling techniques are also attractive, especially given the ever-increasing computational power available to scientists today. Here we develop procedures for obtaining PoD curves, assisted by numerical simulation and based on Bayesian statistics. Numerical simulations are performed using Finite Element analysis for factors that are assumed to be independent, random and normally distributed. PoD curves so generated are compared with experiments on austenitic stainless steel (SS) plates with artificially created notches. We examine issues affecting the PoD curve generation process including codes, standards, distribution of defect parameters and the choice of the noise threshold. We also study the assumption of normal distribution for signal response parameters and consider strategies for dealing with data that may be more complex or sparse to justify this. These topics are addressed and illustrated through the example case of generation of PoD curves for pulse-echo ultrasonic inspection of vertical surface-breaking cracks in SS plates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗