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The probability for an extreme five-day September rainfall event over northeast Colorado, as was observed in early September 2013, has likely decreased due to climate change.
The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN), one of ten NOAA-RISAs, supports resilience efforts in the urban corridor stretching from Philadelphia to Boston. Challenges and opportunities include the diverse set of needs in broad urban contexts, as well as the integration of interdisciplinary perspectives. CCRUN is addressing these challenges through strategies including: 1) the development of an integrated project framework, 2) stakeholder surveys, 3) leveraging extreme weather events as focusing opportunities, and 4) a seminar series that enables scientists and stakeholders to partner. While recognizing that the most extreme weather events will always lead to surprises (even with sound planning), CCRUN endeavors to remain flexible by facilitating place-based research in an interdisciplinary context.
Sea surface temperature (SST), salinity, and chlorophyll concentration (CHL) have changed in the US Northeast Shelf ecosystem over recent decades. The changes in these parameters were distinctly marked by change points around the year 2012 resulting in a 0.83°C increase in SST, a 0.3 PSU increase in salinity, and decrease in CHL in excess of 0.4 mg m–3. Where temperature and salinity shifted in mean level around their respective change points, CHL declined in a more monotonic fashion. Modeled data suggest that the shift in CHL resulted in a greater contribution of pico- and nanophytoplankton and a decreased contribution of microphytoplankton to overall CHL. Complementary estimates of the contribution of different phytoplankton functional types suggest a diminished contribution of diatoms to the phytoplankton community. Hence, not only is there evidence of a decline in the overall primary production capacity of the ecosystem, but also evidence of a fundamental change in the size and quality of phytoplankton supporting food webs. Two ecosystem responses to the observed changes in SST, salinity, and CHL were analyzed. Both length and weight at age have declined for a number of species, and both measures of growth appear to be negatively associated with temperature and positively associated with CHL. Biomass of fish and macroinvertebrates has declined in recent years, with a decrease in pelagic species associated with a decrease in CHL, while the decline in demersal species was associated with an increase in temperature. Collectively, these ecosystem changes appear to be the result of the complex interactions of both thermal effects and changes at the base of the food web.
Ice discharge from north and northeast Greenland calculated using satellite radar interferometry data of fourteen outlet glaciers is 3.5 times that estimated from ice-berg production.
The goal of the EXport Processes in the Ocean from RemoTe Sensing (EXPORTS) field campaign is to develop a predictive understanding of the export, fate, and carbon cycle impacts of global ocean net primary production. To accomplish this goal, observations of export flux pathways, plankton community composition, food web processes, and optical, physical, and biogeochemical (BGC) properties are needed over a range of ecosystem states. Here we introduce the first EXPORTS field deployment to Ocean Station Papa in the Northeast Pacific Ocean during summer of 2018, providing context for other papers in this special collection. The experiment was conducted with two ships: a Process Ship, focused on ecological rates, BGC fluxes, temporal changes in food web, and BGC and optical properties, that followed an instrumented Lagrangian float; and a Survey Ship that sampled BGC and optical properties in spatial patterns around the Process Ship. An array of autonomous underwater assets provided measurements over a range of spatial and temporal scales, and partnering programs and remote sensing observations provided additional observational context. The oceanographic setting was typical of late-summer conditions at Ocean Station Papa: a shallow mixed layer, strong vertical and weak horizontal gradients in hydrographic properties, sluggish sub-inertial currents, elevated macronutrient concentrations and low phytoplankton abundances. Although nutrient concentrations were consistent with previous observations, mixed layer chlorophyll was lower than typically observed, resulting in a deeper euphotic zone. Analyses of surface layer temperature and salinity found three distinct surface water types, allowing for diagnosis of whether observed changes were spatial or temporal.The 2018 EXPORTS field deployment is among the most comprehensive biological pump studies ever conducted. A second deployment to the North Atlantic Ocean occurred in spring 2021, which will be followed by focused work on data synthesis and modeling using the entire EXPORTS data set.
Predicting the impact of marine ecosystem warming on the timing and magnitude of phytoplankton production is challenging. For example, warming can advance the progression of stratification thereby changing the availability of nutrients to surface phytoplankton, or influence the surface mixed layer depth, thus affecting light availability. Here, we use a time series of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll remote sensing products to characterize the response of the phytoplankton community to increased temperature in the Northeast US Shelf Ecosystem. The rate of change in SST was higher in the summer than in winter in all ecoregions resulting in little change in the timing and magnitude of the spring thermal transition compared to a significant change in the autumn transition. Along with little phenological shift in spring thermal conditions, there was also no evidence of a change in spring bloom timing and duration. However, we observed a change in autumn bloom timing in the Georges Bank ecoregion, where bloom initiation has shifted from late September to late October between 1998 and 2020—on average 33 d later. Bloom duration in this ecoregion also shortened from ∼7.5 to 5 weeks. The shortened autumn bloom may be caused by later overturn in stratification known to initiate autumn blooms in the region, whereas the timing of light limitation at the end of the bloom remains unchanged. These changes in bloom timing and duration appear to be related to the change in autumn thermal conditions and the significant shift in autumn thermal transition. These results suggest that the spring bloom phenology in this temperate continental shelf ecosystem may be more resilient to thermal climate change effects than blooms occurring in other times of the year.
Cloud top phase (CTP) impacts cloud albedo and pathways for ice particle nucleation, growth, and fallout within extratropical cyclones. This study uses airborne lidar, radar, and Rapid Refresh analysis data to characterize CTP within extratropical cyclones as a function of cloud top temperature (CTT). During the 2020, 2022, and 2023 Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) field campaign deployments, the Earth-Resources 2 (ER-2) aircraft flew 26 research flights over the Northeast and Midwest U.S. to sample the cloud tops of a variety of extratropical cyclones. A training dataset was developed to create probabilistic phase classifications based on Cloud Physics Lidar measurements of known ice and liquid clouds. These classifications were then used to quantify dominant CTP in the top 150 m of clouds sampled by the Cloud Physics Lidar in storms during IMPACTS. Case studies are presented illustrating examples of supercooled liquid water at cloud top at different CTT ranges (-3°C -20°C. Liquid-bearing cloud tops were found at CTTs as cold as -37ºC.
Satellite radar interferometry provides an important new means for measuring ice motion.
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There are no author-identified significant results in this report.
The author has identified the following significant results. Numerous geologic features can be discerned on ERTS-1 imagery of the northwestern Olympic Peninsula, Washington, and southern Vancouver Island, British Columbia. A thick homoclinal sequence of north-dipping Tertiary marine strata along the northwestern Olympic Peninsula is readily discernible because of the banded nature of its outcrop. The submarine basalt on which the sequence rests shows as a high, rugged ridge. Within the sedimentary sequence, alternating sandstone and siltstone members 100 m or more thick show in the southeast corner of the image. Broad folds in this banded sequence and faults that cut it can be detected. One large fault, the Pysht River fault, and a large syncline in sandstone and siltstone east of it show prominently on the image. Numerous lineations on the image of southern Vancouver Island correlate with faults shown on Muller's map. Particularly prominent are the Leech River and San Juan faults along the southernmost part of the island.
The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 green and red band imagery supplemented by U-2 photographs provides synoptic views of turbid, nearshore, near-surface bodies of water which adds to the body of knowledge about the coastal ocean necessary for a thorough understanding of the dynamic environment. Tubidity and suspended sediment measurements made in the Gulf of the Farallones correlate well with water tonal patterns visible on satellite imagery. Three successively seaward zones of turbid water could be delineated. Secchi disc visibility tests were the most definitive, ranging from or = 2 meters in the main plume, to almost 3 meters in the second zone of turbid water, to 4 meters in the furthest seaward zone of turbid water measured. These variations in water clarity were reinforced by suspended sediment concentrations which ranged from 26-28 mg/1, to 20-24 mg/1, to 11-15 mg/1, respectively, in each of the three masses of water. Transmissiometer readings were basically in agreement with the suspended sediment and Secchi disc values measured. Satellite imagery and U-2 photographs of the California coastal zone taken early in April 1973 show numerous plumes of suspended sediment being deflected southward. This indicates a southward flow of the nearshore, near-surface waters, a reversal from that noted in January 1973.
The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 imagery used in conjunction with the surface-drift cards indicated a southerly flow direction of the central California near surface coastal currents during mid-June 1973. The near-surface currents off northern California and southern Oregon were more complex. Some drift cards were recovered north and some south of their release points; however, the prevalent direction of flow was northerly. General agreement in flow direction of coastal currents obtained from ERTS-1 imagery and drift card data reinforces the image interpretation. Complete seasonal coverage of nearshore circulation interpreted from ERTS-1 imagery will provide information necessary for proper coastal zone management. Extent of snow cover can be readily delimited on ERTS-1 band 5. In the central Sierra Nevada Mountains this past winter season, the snow line, as recorded by ERTS-1, reached an elevation of less than 1500 meters in January but had melted back to between 2500 and 3000 meters by the end of May. ERTS-1 imagery seems to provide sufficient resolution to make it a useful tool for monitoring changes in snow cover in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.
The author has identified the following significant results. Release-recovery paths of drift cards released in conjunction with ERTS-1 overflight show that nearshore surface currents along the central and northern California coast flowed southward at an average rate in excess of 10 cm/sec (8.5 km/day) during August and September 1973 (California Current). By the middle of October 1973, the nearshore surface currents had reversed and the dominant flow velocity was northward at an average rate in excess of 20 cm/sec (17 km/ day) (Davidson Current). The August-September data suggested the presence of counterclockwise gyres in Monterey Bay and the Gulf of the Farallones, but by the middle of October, the gyres were no longer evident. Imagery of April 1973 showed well developed plumes of suspended sediment in Monterey Bay from the Salinas River and in the Gulf of the Farallones from San Francisco Bay. ERTS-1 imagery provides an effective means of monitoring timber harvest in the redwood forest along the northern California coast. ERTS-1 imagery also clearly portrays contrasting topographic belts characterized by fluvial erosion and by mass movement. The most visually apparent and most persistent river mouth suspended sediment plumes are associated with those rivers that drain belts of topography that appear to have been eroded primarily by mass movement.
There are no author-identified significant results in this report.