Haystack Auxiliary Radar Measurements of the Orbital Debris Environment: 2018
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James Murray↗
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Goldstone Radar Measurements of the Orbital Debris Environment: 2020-2021
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Jessica A Arnold↗
Light Curve Observations of Upper Stages in the Low Earth Orbit Environment
Active debris removal (ADR) is a potential means to remediate the orbital debris environment in low Earth orbit (LEO). Massive intact objects, including spent upper stages and retired payloads, with high collision probabilities have been suggested as potential targets for ADR. The challenges to remove such objects on a routine basis are truly monumental. A key piece of information needed for any ADR operations is the tumble motion of the targets. Rapid tumble motion (in excess of one degree per second) of a multiple-ton intact object could be a major problem for proximity and docking operations. Therefore, there is a need to characterize the general tumble motion of the potential ADR targets for future ADR planning. The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has initiated an effort to identify the global tumble behavior of potential ADR targets in LEO. The activities include optical light curve observations, imaging radar data collection, and laboratory light curve simulations and modeling. This paper provides a preliminary summary of light curve data of more than 100 upper stages collected by two telescope facilities in Colorado and New Mexico between 2011 and 2012. Analyses of the data and implications for the tumble motions of the objects are also discussed in the paper.
Liou, J.-C.↗
Debris environment interactions with low Earth orbit constellations
Several low earth orbit communication satellite constellations are planned. Due to their size and complexity, these constellations potentially contribute to the orbital debris environment. The results of a parametric assessment of the impact of low earth orbit constellations on the orbital debris environment are presented. The increase in loss rate of non constellation spacecraft is considered, as well as the increase in the loss rate or replacement rate of constellation satellites as a result of debris impact. Primary parameters in the analysis are the number, size and altitude of the constellation. Parameters are defined for the vulnerable area of loss of spacecraft and the disposition of constellation spacecraft at the end of its life.
Reynolds, Robert↗
Orbital Debris and Future Environment Remediation
Orbital debris is any man-made object in orbit about the Earth that no longer serves a useful purpose
Liou, J.-C.↗
Approaches to dealing with meteoroid and orbital debris protection on the Space Station
Viewgraphs and discussion on approaches to dealing with meteoroid and orbital debris protection on the space station are presented. The National Space Policy of February, 1988, included the following: 'All sectors will seek to minimize the creation of space debris. Design and operations of space tests, experiments, and systems will strive to minimize or reduce accumulation of space debris consistent with mission requirements and cost effectiveness.' The policy also tasked the National Security Council, which established an Interagency Group, which in turn produced an Interagency Report. NASA and DoD tasks to establish a joint plan to determine techniques to measure the environment, and techniques to reduce the environment are addressed. Topics covered include: orbital debris environment, meteoroids, orbital debris population, cataloged earth satellite population, USSPACECOM cataloged objects, and orbital debris radar program.
Kessler, Donald J.↗
The Predicted Growth of the Low Earth Orbit Space Debris Environment: An Assessment of Future Risk for Spacecraft
Space debris is a worldwide-recognized issue concerning the safety of commercial, military, and exploration spacecraft. The space debris environment includes both naturally occuring meteoroids and objects in Earth orbit that are generated by human activity, termed orbital debris. Space agencies around the world are addressing the dangers of debris collisions to both crewed and robotic spacecraft. In the United States, the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Johnson Space Center leads the effort to categorize debris, predict its growth, and formulate mitigation policy for the environment from low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). This paper presents recent results derived from the NASA long-term debris environment model, LEGEND. It includes the revised NASA sodium potassium droplet model, newly corrected for a factor of two over-estimation of the droplet population. The study indicates a LEO environment that is already highly collisionally active among orbital debris larger than 1 cm in size. Most of the modeled collision events are non-catastrophic (i.e., They lead to a cratering of the target, but no large scale fragmentation.). But they are potentially mission-ending, and take place between impactors smaller than 10 cm and targets larger than 10 cm. Given the small size of the impactor these events would likely be undetectable by present-day measurement means. The activity continues into the future as would be expected. Impact rates of about four per year are predicted by the current study within the next 30 years, with the majority of targets being abandoned intacts (spent upper stages and spacecraft). Still, operational spacecraft do show a small collisional activity, one that increases over time as the small fragment population increases.
Krisko, Paula H.↗
Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) v.3
A model of the manmade orbital debris environment is required by spacecraft designers, mission planners, and others in order to understand and mitigate the effects of the environment on their spacecraft or systems. A manmade environment is dynamic, and can be altered significantly by intent (e.g., the Chinese anti-satellite weapon test of January 2007) or accident (e.g., the collision of Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 spacecraft in February 2009). Engineering models are used to portray the manmade debris environment in Earth orbit. The availability of new sensor and in situ data, the re-analysis of older data, and the development of new analytical and statistical techniques has enabled the construction of this more comprehensive and sophisticated model. The primary output of this model is the flux [#debris/area/time] as a function of debris size and year. ORDEM may be operated in spacecraft mode or telescope mode. In the former case, an analyst defines an orbit for a spacecraft and "flies" the spacecraft through the orbital debris environment. In the latter case, an analyst defines a ground-based sensor (telescope or radar) in terms of latitude, azimuth, and elevation, and the model provides the number of orbital debris traversing the sensor's field of view. An upgraded graphical user interface (GUI) is integrated with the software. This upgraded GUI uses project-oriented organization and provides the user with graphical representations of numerous output data products. These range from the conventional flux as a function of debris size for chosen analysis orbits (or views), for example, to the more complex color-contoured two-dimensional (2D) directional flux diagrams in local spacecraft elevation and azimuth.
Matney, Mark↗
An Overview of NASA's Oribital Debris Environment Model
Using updated measurement data, analysis tools, and modeling techniques; the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has created a new Orbital Debris Environment Model. This model extends the coverage of orbital debris flux throughout the Earth orbit environment, and includes information on the mass density of the debris as well as the uncertainties in the model environment. This paper will give an overview of this model and its implications for spacecraft risk analysis.
Matney, Mark↗
NASA Orbital Debris Radar Measurements by the Haystack Ultra-wideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR)
For many years, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has partnered with the U.S. Department of Defense and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) to collect data on the orbital debris environment using the Haystack radar. These measurements are used to characterize the small debris environment in low Earth orbit (LEO), down to a noise-limited size of approximately 5 mm—depending on altitude. The Haystack radar operated by MIT/LL underwent upgrades starting in May 2010, with operations resuming in 2014 as the Haystack Ultra-wideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR). HUSIR is the primary source of data used by the ODPO to statistically sample orbital debris in the 5-mm to 10-cm size regime in LEO and is a key source of data to build and validate the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model. In this presentation, we will present recent HUSIR results and show how NASA uses them to understand the orbital debris environment.
Mark Matney↗
Growth in the Number of SSN Tracked Orbital Objects
The number of objects in earth orbit tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network (SSN) has experienced unprecedented growth since March, 2003. Approximately 2000 orbiting objects have been added to the "Analyst list" of tracked objects. This growth is primarily due to the resumption of full power/full time operation of the AN/FPS-108 Cobra Dane radar located on Shemya Island, AK. Cobra Dane is an L-band (23-cm wavelength) phased array radar which first became operational in 1977. Cobra Dane was a "Collateral Sensor" in the SSN until 1994 when its communication link with the Space Control Center (SCC) was closed. NASA and the Air Force conducted tests in 1999 using Cobra Dane to detect and track small debris. These tests confirmed that the radar was capable of detecting and maintaining orbits on objects as small as 5-cm diameter. Subsequently, Cobra Dane was reconnected to the SSN and resumed full power/full time space surveillance operations on March 4, 2003. This paper will examine the new data and its implications to the understanding of the orbital debris environment and orbital safety.
Stansbery, Eugene G.↗
The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM2000
The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office at Johnson Space Center has developed a new computer-based orbital debris engineering model, ORDEM2000, which describes the orbital debris environment in the low Earth orbit region between 200 and 2000 km altitude. The model is appropriate for those engineering solutions requiring knowledge and estimates of the orbital debris environment (debris spatial density, flux, etc.). ORDEM2000 can also be used as a benchmark for ground-based debris measurements and observations. We incorporated a large set of observational data, covering the object size range from 10 mm to 10 m, into the ORDEM2000 debris database, utilizing a maximum likelihood estimator to convert observations into debris population probability distribution functions. These functions then form the basis of debris populations. We developed a finite element model to process the debris populations to form the debris environment. A more capable input and output structure and a user-friendly graphical user interface are also implemented in the model. ORDEM2000 has been subjected to a significant verification and validation effort. This document describes ORDEM2000, which supersedes the previous model, ORDEM96. The availability of new sensor and in situ data, as well as new analytical techniques, has enabled the construction of this new model. Section 1 describes the general requirements and scope of an engineering model. Data analyses and the theoretical formulation of the model are described in Sections 2 and 3. Section 4 describes the verification and validation effort and the sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Finally, Section 5 describes the graphical user interface, software installation, and test cases for the user.
Liou, Jer-Chyi↗
Active Debris Removal - A Grand Engineering Challenge for the Twenty-First Century
The collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 underlined the potential of an ongoing collision cascade effect (the Kessler Syndrome ) in the near-Earth orbital debris environment. A 2006 NASA analysis of the instability of the debris population in the low Earth orbit (LEO, the region below 2000 km altitude) shows that the environment has reached a point where the debris population will continue to increase in the next 200 years, even without any future launches. The increase is driven by fragments generated via collisions among existing objects in LEO. In reality, the situation will be worse than this prediction because satellite launches will continue and unexpected major breakups may continue to occur. Mitigation measures commonly adopted by the international space community (such as the 25-year rule) will help, but will be insufficient to stop the population growth. To better preserve the near-Earth space environment for future generations, active debris removal (ADR) should be considered. The idea of active debris removal is not new. However, due to the monumental technical, resource, operational, legal, and political challenges associated with removing objects from orbit, it has not yet been widely considered feasible. The recent major breakup events and the environment modeling efforts have certainly reignited the interest in using active debris removal to remediate the environment. This trend is further highlighted by the National Space Policy of the United States of America, released by the White House in June 2010, where the President explicitly directs NASA and the Department of Defense to pursue research and development of technology and techniques, to mitigate and remove on-orbit debris, reduce hazards, and increase understanding of the current and future debris environment. A 2009 modeling study by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has shown that, in order to maintain the LEO debris population at a constant level for the next 200 years, an active debris removal of about five objects per year is needed. The targets identified for removal are those with the highest mass and collision probability products. Analyses from the study indicate that the majority of those objects are spent upper stages with masses ranging from 1 to more than 8 metric tons, residing in several altitude regions and concentrated in about 10 inclination bands. To remove five of those objects per year in a cost-effective manner truly represents a grand challenge in engineering and technology development. An end-to-end debris removal operation includes, in general terms, launches orbit rendezvous, precision tracking, stabilization (of the tumbling motion), capture, and deorbit of the targets. An ADR system deigned to remove a single object is not very cost-effective. Therefore, the repeatability of the removal system is almost a requirement. Some of the technologies involved in the ADR process do exist, but the difficulty is to make them more cost effective. Other technologies, such as ways to stabilize a massive tumbling upper stage and the capture mechanisms, are new and will require major innovative research and development efforts. This paper summarizes an updated assessment of the environment, including what needs to be done to control the population growth, and outlines the major engineering and technology challenges to carry out active debris removal to preserve the environment.
Liou, Jer-Chyi↗
An Analysis of the Orbital Distribution of Solid Rocket Motor Slag
The contribution made by orbiting solid rocket motors (SRMs) to the orbital debris environment is both potentially significant and insufficiently studied. A combination of rocket motor design and the mechanisms of the combustion process can lead to the emission of sufficiently large and numerous by-products to warrant assessment of their contribution to the orbital debris environment. These particles are formed during SRM tail-off, or the termination of burn, by the rapid expansion, dissemination, and solidification of the molten Al2O3 slag pool accumulated during the main burn phase of SRMs utilizing immersion-type nozzles. Though the usage of SRMs is low compared to the usage of liquid fueled motors, the propensity of SRMs to generate particles in the 100 m and larger size regime has caused concern regarding their contributing to the debris environment. Particle sizes as large as 1 cm have been witnessed in ground tests conducted under vacuum conditions and comparable sizes have been estimated via ground-based telescopic and in-situ observations of sub-orbital SRM tail-off events. Using sub-orbital and post recovery observations, a simplistic number-size-velocity distribution of slag from on-orbit SRM firings was postulated. In this paper we have developed more elaborate distributions and emission scenarios and modeled the resultant orbital population and its time evolution by incorporating a historical database of SRM launches, propellant masses, and likely location and time of particulate deposition. From this analysis a more comprehensive understanding has been obtained of the role of SRM ejecta in the orbital debris environment, indicating that SRM slag is a significant component of the current and future population.
Horstman, Matthew F.↗
Highlights of Recent Research Activities at the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office
The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) was established at the NASA Johnson Space Center in 1979. The ODPO has initiated and led major orbital debris research activities over the past 38 years, including developing the first set of the NASA orbital debris mitigation requirements in 1995 and supporting the establishment of the U.S. Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices in 2001. This paper is an overview of the recent ODPO research activities, ranging from ground-based and in-situ measurements, to laboratory tests, and to engineering and long-term orbital debris environment modeling. These activities highlight the ODPO's commitment to continuously improve the orbital debris environment definition to better protect current and future space missions from the low Earth orbit to the geosynchronous Earth orbit regions.
Liou, J - C.↗
A model for the evolution of on-orbit manmade debris environment
Man-made debris in low-Earth orbit (LEO) and the conduct of operations/procedures which leave debris in orbit are discussed. With continued deposition and larger vehicles and longer times on orbit for LEO operations, the probability of collisions between such vehicles and some member of the debris population becomes large. Because the collisions will occur at very large relative speeds, a small object which would not normally be considered a hazard might pose a lethal threat to an operating spacecraft. Future debris states must be deduced from an evaluation of many models using a Monte Carlo method for future deposition events. A model for the population evolution is presented and results of model calculations are discussed. Contributions to the population which may be expected to arise from on-orbit collisions and explosions are examined. Results are presented as models for future space usage as an extrapolation of usage in the past, for an era of enhanced space usage, and for an era in which antisatellite tests provide a debris contribution.
Reynolds, R. C.↗
Projectile Density Effects on Shield Performance
In the past, the orbital debris environment was modeled as consisting entirely of aluminum particles. As a consequence, most of the impact test database on spacecraft micro-meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) shields, and the resulting ballistic limit equations used to predict shielding performance, has been based on using aluminum projectiles. Recently, data has been collected from returned spacecraft materials and other sources that indicate higher and lower density components of orbital debris also exist. New orbital debris environment models such as ORDEM2008 provide predictions of the fraction of orbital debris in various density bins (high = 7.9 g/cu cm, medium = 2.8 g/cu cm, and low = 0.9-1.1 g/cu cm). This paper describes impact tests to assess the effects of projectile density on the performance capabilities of typical MMOD shields. Updates to shield ballistic limit equations are provided based on results of tests and analysis.
Christiansen, Eric L.↗
Effects of High-Density Impacts on Shielding Capability
Spacecraft are shielded from micrometeoroids and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts to meet requirements for crew safety and/or mission success. In the past, orbital debris particles have been considered to be composed entirely of aluminum (medium-density material) for the purposes of MMOD shielding design and verification. Meteoroids have been considered to be low-density porous materials, with an average density of 1 g/cu cm. Recently, NASA released a new orbital debris environment model, referred to as ORDEM 3.0, that indicates orbital debris contains a substantial fraction of high-density material for which steel is used in MMOD risk assessments [Ref.1]. Similarly, an update to the meteoroid environment model is also under consideration to include a high-density component of that environment. This paper provides results of hypervelocity impact tests and hydrocode simulations on typical spacecraft MMOD shields using steel projectiles. It was found that previous ballistic limit equations (BLEs) that define the protection capability of the MMOD shields did not predict the results from the steel impact tests and hydrocode simulations (typically, the predictions from these equations were too optimistic). The ballistic limit equations required updates to more accurately represent shield protection capability from the range of densities in the orbital debris environment. Ballistic limit equations were derived from the results of the work and are provided in the paper.
Christiansen, Eric L.↗