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DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Hailstone Temporal Variability and Contributing Factors over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Abstract Hailstones are a natural hazard that pose a significant threat to property and are responsible for significant economic losses each year in the United States. Detailed understanding of their characteristics is essential to mitigate their impact. Identifying the dynamic and physical factors contributing to hail formation and hailstone sizes is of great importance to weather and climate prediction and policymakers. In this study, we have analyzed the temporal and spatial variabilities of severe hail occurrences over the U.S. southern Great Plains (SGP) states from 2004 to 2016 using two hail datasets: hail reports from the Storm Prediction Center and the newly developed radar-retrieved maximum expected size of hail (MESH). It is found that severe and significant severe hail occurrences have a considerable year-to-year temporal variability in the SGP region. The interannual variabilities have a strong correspondence with sea surface temperature anomalies over the northern Gulf of Mexico and there is no outlier. The year 2016 is identified as an outlier for the correlations with both El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and aerosol loading. The correlations with ENSO and aerosol loading are not statistically robust to inclusion of the outlier 2016. Statistical analysis without the outlier 2016 shows that 1) aerosols that may be mainly from northern Mexico have the largest correlation with hail interannual variability among the three factors and 2) meteorological covariation does not significantly contribute to the high correlation. These analyses warrant further investigations of aerosol impacts on hail occurrence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Mixture-Tuned, Clutter Matched Filter for Remote Detection of Subpixel Spectral Signals

Mapping localized spectral features in large images demands sensitive and robust detection algorithms. Two aspects of large images that can harm matched-filter detection performance are addressed simultaneously. First, multimodal backgrounds may thwart the typical Gaussian model. Second, outlier features can trigger false detections from large projections onto the target vector. Two state-of-the-art approaches are combined that independently address outlier false positives and multimodal backgrounds. The background clustering models multimodal backgrounds, and the mixture tuned matched filter (MT-MF) addresses outliers. Combining the two methods captures significant additional performance benefits. The resulting mixture tuned clutter matched filter (MT-CMF) shows effective performance on simulated and airborne datasets. The classical MNF transform was applied, followed by k-means clustering. Then, each cluster s mean, covariance, and the corresponding eigenvalues were estimated. This yields a cluster-specific matched filter estimate as well as a cluster- specific feasibility score to flag outlier false positives. The technology described is a proof of concept that may be employed in future target detection and mapping applications for remote imaging spectrometers. It is of most direct relevance to JPL proposals for airborne and orbital hyperspectral instruments. Applications include subpixel target detection in hyperspectral scenes for military surveillance. Earth science applications include mineralogical mapping, species discrimination for ecosystem health monitoring, and land use classification.

Thompson, David R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

FY12 End of Year Report for NEPP DDR2 Reliability

This document reports the status of the NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) Double Data Rate 2 (DDR2) Reliability effort for FY2012. The task expanded the focus of evaluating reliability effects targeted for device examination. FY11 work highlighted the need to test many more parts and to examine more operating conditions, in order to provide useful recommendations for NASA users of these devices. This year's efforts focused on development of test capabilities, particularly focusing on those that can be used to determine overall lot quality and identify outlier devices, and test methods that can be employed on components for flight use. Flight acceptance of components potentially includes considerable time for up-screening (though this time may not currently be used for much reliability testing). Manufacturers are much more knowledgeable about the relevant reliability mechanisms for each of their devices. We are not in a position to know what the appropriate reliability tests are for any given device, so although reliability testing could be focused for a given device, we are forced to perform a large campaign of reliability tests to identify devices with degraded reliability. With the available up-screening time for NASA parts, it is possible to run many device performance studies. This includes verification of basic datasheet characteristics. Furthermore, it is possible to perform significant pattern sensitivity studies. By doing these studies we can establish higher reliability of flight components. In order to develop these approaches, it is necessary to develop test capability that can identify reliability outliers. To do this we must test many devices to ensure outliers are in the sample, and we must develop characterization capability to measure many different parameters. For FY12 we increased capability for reliability characterization and sample size. We increased sample size this year by moving from loose devices to dual inline memory modules (DIMMs) with an approximate reduction of 20 to 50 times in terms of per device under test (DUT) cost. By increasing sample size we have improved our ability to characterize devices that may be considered reliability outliers. This report provides an update on the effort to improve DDR2 testing capability. Although focused on DDR2, the methods being used can be extended to DDR and DDR3 with relative ease.

Guertin, Steven M.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Using Machine Learning to Identify Novel Hydroclimate States

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to alter drought risk in the future. However, droughts are not uncommon or unprecedented, as documented in tree-ring-based reconstructions of the summer average Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). Using an unsupervised machine-learning method trained on these reconstructions of pre-industrial climate, we identify outliers: years in which the spatial pattern of PDSI is unusual relative to ‘normal' variability. We show that in many regions, outliers are more frequently identified in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This trend is more pronounced when the regional drought atlases are combined into a single global dataset. By definition, outlier patterns at the 10% level are expected to occur once per decade, but from 1950 to 2000 more than 6 years per decade are identified as outliers in the global drought atlas (GDA). Extending the GDA through 2020 using an observational dataset suggests that anomalous global drought conditions are present in 80% of years in the twenty-first century. Our results indicate, without recourse to climate models, that the world is more frequently experiencing drought conditions that are highly unusual in the context of past natural climate variability.

Drought risk↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning enhanced predictions of ICRF heating: Overcoming numerical limitations via data curation

In this work, we present the development of robust surrogate models for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) and High-Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating predictions in fusion plasmas. Building upon our previous efforts to achieve real-time capable models, we identify the cause of the outliers found using TORIC in certain HHFW heating scenarios. The outliers are observed to be spurious ion Bernstein wave (IBW)-like modes caused by a wavelength control algorithm designed to address challenging scenarios with high perpendicular wavenumbers. The effect arises from the modulation in the perpendicular susceptibility, which can induce sign reversal and IBW-like propagation for scenarios featuring normalized ion Larmor radius λ i ≫ 1. We use TORIC with this algorithm disabled to generate a novel HHFW-NSTX database that is free of outliers. Surrogate models trained on this database, including Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Multi-Layer Perceptrons, and Gaussian Process Regressors (GPR), demonstrate the ability to accurately predict HHFW heating profiles, with regression scores of R 2 ∈[0.93−0.99]. Additionally we demonstrate that it is possible to generalize predictions beyond training data by the use of both RFR and GPR models, enabling the prediction of scenarios previously limited to the original model. GPR models also provide uncertainty quantification, offering insights into model confidence. This work introduces a comprehensive Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification methodology for surrogate modeling, applicable not only to ICRF heating but also to other RF heating challenges and fusion physics problems. Beyond accelerated inference, these models show effective extrapolation capabilities, providing an alternative for addressing numerical challenges.

Artificial neural networks↗

DOE OSTI2026

Maximizing efficiency of dataset compression for machine learning potentials with information theory

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) balance high accuracy and lower costs compared to density functional theory calculations, but their performance often depends on the size and diversity of training datasets. Large datasets improve model accuracy and generalization but are computationally expensive to produce and train on, while smaller datasets risk discarding rare but important atomic environments and compromising MLIP accuracy/reliability. Here, we develop an information-theoretical framework to quantify the efficiency of dataset compression methods and propose an algorithm that maximizes this efficiency. By framing atomistic dataset compression as an instance of the minimum set cover (MSC) problem over atom-centered environments, our method identifies the smallest subset of structures that contains as much information as possible from the original dataset while pruning redundant information. The approach is extensively demonstrated on the GAP-20 and TM23 datasets and validated on 64 varied datasets from the ColabFit repository. Across all cases, MSC consistently retains outliers, preserves dataset diversity, and reproduces the long-tail distributions of forces even at high compression rates, outperforming other subsampling methods. Furthermore, MLIPs trained on MSC-compressed datasets exhibit reduced error for out-of-distribution data even in low-data regimes. We explain these results using an outlier analysis and show that such quantitative conclusions could not be achieved with conventional dimensionality reduction methods. The algorithm is implemented in the open-source QUESTS package and can be used for several tasks in atomistic modeling, from data subsampling, outlier detection, and training improved MLIPs at a lower cost.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

A study of the central stellar populations of galaxies in SDSS-IV MaNGA: identification of a subsample with unusually young and massive stars

ABSTRACT This paper describes a search for galaxy centres with clear indications of unusual stellar populations with an initial mass function flatter than Salpeter at high stellar masses. Out of a sample of 668 face-on galaxies with stellar masses in the range $10^{10}\!-\!10^{11} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$, I identify 15 galaxies with young- to intermediate-age central stellar populations with unusual stellar population gradients in the inner regions of the galaxy. In these galaxies, the 4000-Å break is either flat or rising towards the centre of the galaxy, indicating that the central regions host evolved stars, but the H α equivalent width also rises steeply in the central regions. The ionization parameter [O iii]/[O ii] is typically low in these Galactic Centres, indicating that ionizing sources are stellar rather than AGN. Wolf–Rayet features characteristic of hot young stars are often found in the spectra and these also get progressively stronger at smaller galactocentric radii. These outliers are compared to a control sample of galaxies of similar mass with young inner stellar populations, but where the gradients in H α equivalent width and 4000-Å break follow each other more closely. The outliers exhibit central Wolf–Rayet red bump excesses much more frequently, they have higher central stellar and ionized gas metallicities, and they are also more frequently detected at 20-cm radio wavelengths. I highlight one outlier where the ionized gas is clearly being strongly perturbed and blown out either by massive stars after they explode as supernovae, or by energy injection from matter falling on to a black hole.

Kauffmann, Guinevere↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Most Massive White Dwarfs in the Solar Neighborhood

We present an analysis of the most massive white dwarf candidates in the Montreal White Dwarf Database 100 pc sample. We identify 25 objects that would be more massive than 1.3M ⊙ if they had pure H atmospheres and CO cores, including two outliers with unusually high photometric mass estimates near the Chandrasekhar limit. We provide follow-up spectroscopy of these two white dwarfs and show that they are indeed significantly below this limit. We expand our model calculations for CO core white dwarfs up to M = 1.334 M ⊙ , which corresponds to the high-density limit of our equation-of-state tables, ρ = 109 g cm -3 . We find many objects close to this maximum mass of our CO core models. A significant fraction of ultramassive white dwarfs are predicted to form through binary mergers. Merger populations can reveal themselves through their kinematics, magnetism, or rapid rotation rates. We identify four outliers in transverse velocity, four likely magnetic white dwarfs (one of which is also an outlier in transverse velocity), and one with rapid rotation, indicating that at least 8 of the 25 ultramassive white dwarfs in our sample are likely merger products.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fast and efficient identification of anomalous galaxy spectra with neural density estimation

ABSTRACT Current large-scale astrophysical experiments produce unprecedented amounts of rich and diverse data. This creates a growing need for fast and flexible automated data inspection methods. Deep learning algorithms can capture and pick up subtle variations in rich data sets and are fast to apply once trained. Here, we study the applicability of an unsupervised and probabilistic deep learning framework, the probabilistic auto-encoder, to the detection of peculiar objects in galaxy spectra from the SDSS survey. Different to supervised algorithms, this algorithm is not trained to detect a specific feature or type of anomaly, instead it learns the complex and diverse distribution of galaxy spectra from training data and identifies outliers with respect to the learned distribution. We find that the algorithm assigns consistently lower probabilities (higher anomaly score) to spectra that exhibit unusual features. For example, the majority of outliers among quiescent galaxies are E+A galaxies, whose spectra combine features from old and young stellar population. Other identified outliers include LINERs, supernovae, and overlapping objects. Conditional modelling further allows us to incorporate additional information. Namely, we evaluate the probability of an object being anomalous given a certain spectral class, but other information such as metrics of data quality or estimated redshift could be incorporated as well. We make our code publicly available.

Böhm, Vanessa↗

DOE OSTI2024

Defining blood hematology reference values in female pig-tailed macaques ( Macaca nemestrina ) using the Isolation Forest algorithm

Background: Pig-tailed macaques (PTMs) are commonly used as preclinical models to assess antiretroviral drugs for HIV prevention research. Drug toxicities and disease pathologies are often preceded by changes in blood hematology. To better assess the safety profile of pharmaceuticals, we defined normal ranges of hematological values in PTMs using an Isolation Forest (iForest) algorithm. Methods: Eighteen female PTMs were evaluated. Blood was collected 1–24 times per animal for a total of 159 samples. Complete blood counts were performed, and iForest was used to analyze the hematology data to detect outliers. Results: Median, IQR, and ranges were calculated for 13 hematology parameters. From all samples, 22 outliers were detected. These outliers were excluded from the reference index. Conclusions: Using iForest, we defined a normal range for hematology parameters in female PTMs. This reference index can be a valuable tool for future studies evaluating drug toxicities in PTMs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Raw soil carbon dioxide, moisture, temperature and micrometeorological data in the East River Watershed, Colorado June 2021-June 2024. (DE-SC0021139)

This dataset contains raw data from four tripod stations along an elevation gradient on Snodgrass Mountain in the East River Watershed, CO, USA. Each station contains a datalogger connected to 3 soil Carbon Dioxide CO2 gas probes, 3 soil temperature/moisture sensors and a micrometeorological station. Sensors are scanned every minute, and the 30 minute average is reported. The file snodgrass_soil_ESS.csv contains raw data, a row of column descriptors, and units of measurements. some data processing and QA/QC was done to filter out data from sensors that went bad and extreme outliers. CO2 sensors that went bad were replaced with new sensors as soon as possible. This research was performed to investigate the ecohydrological linkages of belowground carbon processes in the East River watershed forested communities to better understand how these ecosystems will respond to a changing cold-season moisture input. This is the second version of this data set and was modified on 10/01/2024. The primary change in the data was the addition of data from the fall of 2022 to June of 2024. In addition, minor QA/QC was done to filter out data from sensors that went bad and extreme outliers. THe filtered data are now NA's in this data frame and primarily the CO2 sensors. Limited to no QA/QC has been done on the other environmental data. This is now the third version of the data set, and was modified 03/25/2026. The primary change in the data was the addition of data from the June of 2024 to December 2025. Further r QA/QC was done with the new data to filter out bad data from faulty sensors and extreme outliers. The filtered data are now NA's in this data frame and primarily the CO2 sensors. Limited to no QA/QC has been done on the other environmental data. ##This additional data was funded under DE-SC0024218( Responses of Plant and Microbial Respiration Sources to Changing Cold Season Climate Drivers in the East River Watershed)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Analysis of the Statistics and Systematics of Limb Anomaly Detections in HST/STIS Transit Images of Europa

Several recent studies derived the existence of plumes on Jupiter’s moon Europa. The only technique that provided multiple detections is the far-ultraviolet imaging observations of Europa in transit of Jupiter taken by the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). In this study, we reanalyze the three HST/STIS transit images in which Sparks et al. identified limb anomalies as evidence for Europa’s plume activity. After reproducing the results of Sparks et al., we find that positive outliers are similarly present in the images as the negative outliers that were attributed to plume absorption. A physical explanation for the positive outliers is missing. We then investigate the systematic uncertainties and statistics in the images and identify two factors that are crucial when searching for anomalies around the limb. One factor is the alignment between the actual and assumed locations of Europa on the detector. A misalignment introduces distorted statistics, most strongly affecting the limb above the darker trailing hemisphere where the plumes were detected. The second factor is a discrepancy between the observation and the model used for comparison, adding uncertainty in the statistics. When accounting for these two factors, the limb minima (and maxima) are consistent with random statistical occurrence in a sample size given by the number of pixels in the analyzed limb region. The plume candidate features in the three analyzed images can be explained by purely statistical fluctuations and do not provide evidence for absorption by plumes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Using a Neural Network Classifier to Select Galaxies with the Most Accurate Photometric Redshifts

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce several billion photometric redshifts (photo-z's), enabling cosmological analyses to select a subset of galaxies with the most accurate photo-z. For this work, we perform initial redshift fits on Subaru Strategic Program galaxies with deep grizy photometry using Trees for Photo-Z (TPZ) before applying a custom neural network classifier (NNC) tuned to select galaxies with (z phot – z spec )/(1 + z spec ) < 0.10. We consider four cases of training and test sets ranging from an idealized case to using data augmentation to increase the representation of dim galaxies in the training set. Selections made using the NNC yield significant further improvements in outlier fraction and photo-z scatter (σ z ) over those made with typical photo-z uncertainties. As an example, when selecting the best third of the galaxy sample, the NNC achieves a 35% improvement in outlier rate and a 23% improvement in σ z compared to using uncertainties from TPZ. For cosmology and galaxy evolution studies, this method can be tuned to retain a particular sample size or to achieve a desired photo-z accuracy; our results show that it is possible to retain more than a third of an LSST-like galaxy sample while reducing σ z by a factor of 2 compared to the full sample, with one-fifth as many photo-z outliers. For surveys like LSST that are not limited by shot noise, this method enables a larger number of tomographic redshift bins and hence a significant increase in the total signal to noise of galaxy angular power spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Are Type Ia Supernovae in Rest-frame H Brighter in More Massive Galaxies?

We analyze 143 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) observed in H band (1.6–1.8 μm) and find that SNe Ia are intrinsically brighter in H band with increasing host galaxy stellar mass. We find that SNe Ia in galaxies more massive than 10 10.43 M ⊙ are 0.13 ± 0.04 mag brighter in H than SNe Ia in less massive galaxies. The same set of SNe Ia observed at optical wavelengths, after width–color–luminosity corrections, exhibit a 0.10 ± 0.03 mag offset in the Hubble residuals. We observe an outlier population (|ΔH max | > 0.5 mag) in the H band and show that removing the outlier population moves the mass threshold to 10 10.65 M ⊙ and reduces the step in H band to 0.08 ± 0.04 mag, but the equivalent optical mass step is increased to 0.13 ± 0.04 mag. We conclude that the outliers do not drive the brightness–host-mass correlation. Less massive galaxies preferentially host more higher-stretch SNe Ia, which are intrinsically brighter and bluer. It is only after correction for width–luminosity and color–luminosity relationships that SNe Ia have brighter optical Hubble residuals in more massive galaxies. Thus, finding that SNe Ia are intrinsically brighter in H in more massive galaxies is an opposite correlation to the intrinsic (pre-width–luminosity correction) optical brightness. If dust and the treatment of intrinsic color variation were the main driver of the host galaxy mass correlation, we would not expect a correlation of brighter H-band SNe Ia in more massive galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving Photometric Redshift Estimates with Training Sample Augmentation

Abstract Large imaging surveys will rely on photometric redshifts (photo- z 's), which are typically estimated through machine-learning methods. Currently planned spectroscopic surveys will not be deep enough to produce a representative training sample for Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), so we seek methods to improve the photo- z estimates that arise from nonrepresentative training samples. Spectroscopic training samples for photo- z 's are biased toward redder, brighter galaxies, which also tend to be at lower redshift than the typical galaxy observed by LSST, leading to poor photo- z estimates with outlier fractions nearly 4 times larger than for a representative training sample. In this Letter, we apply the concept of training sample augmentation, where we augment simulated nonrepresentative training samples with simulated galaxies possessing otherwise unrepresented features. When we select simulated galaxies with ( g - z ) color, i -band magnitude, and redshift outside the range of the original training sample, we are able to reduce the outlier fraction of the photo- z estimates for simulated LSST data by nearly 50% and the normalized median absolute deviation (NMAD) by 56%. When compared to a fully representative training sample, augmentation can recover nearly 70% of the degradation in the outlier fraction and 80% of the degradation in NMAD. Training sample augmentation is a simple and effective way to improve training samples for photo- z 's without requiring additional spectroscopic samples.

Moskowitz, Irene (ORCID:0000000222068589)↗

NASA NTRS1992

Clustering of noisy image data using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy system

Identification of outliers or noise in a real data set is often quite difficult. A recently developed adaptive fuzzy leader clustering (AFLC) algorithm has been modified to separate the outliers from real data sets while finding the clusters within the data sets. The capability of this modified AFLC algorithm to identify the outliers in a number of real data sets indicates the potential strength of this algorithm in correct classification of noisy real data.

Pemmaraju, Surya↗

NASA NTRS1994

Groundspeed filtering for CTAS

Ground speed is one of the radar observables which is obtained along with position and heading from NASA Ames Center radar. Within the Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS), groundspeed is converted into airspeed using the wind speeds which CTAS obtains from the NOAA weather grid. This airspeed is then used in the trajectory synthesis logic which computes the trajectory for each individual aircraft. The time history of the typical radar groundspeed data is generally quite noisy, with high frequency variations on the order of five knots, and occasional 'outliers' which can be significantly different from the probable true speed. To try to smooth out these speeds and make the ETA estimate less erratic, filtering of the ground speed is done within CTAS. In its base form, the CTAS filter is a 'moving average' filter which averages the last ten radar values. In addition, there is separate logic to detect and correct for 'outliers', and acceleration logic which limits the groundspeed change in adjacent time samples. As will be shown, these additional modifications do cause significant changes in the actual groundspeed filter output. The conclusion is that the current ground speed filter logic is unable to track accurately the speed variations observed on many aircraft. The Kalman filter logic however, appears to be an improvement to the current algorithm used to smooth ground speed variations, while being simpler and more efficient to implement. Additional logic which can test for true 'outliers' can easily be added by looking at the difference in the a priori and post priori Kalman estimates, and not updating if the difference in these quantities is too large.

Slater, Gary L.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Anomaly Detection in Large Sets of High-Dimensional Symbol Sequences

This paper addresses the problem of detecting and describing anomalies in large sets of high-dimensional symbol sequences. The approach taken uses unsupervised clustering of sequences using the normalized longest common subsequence (LCS) as a similarity measure, followed by detailed analysis of outliers to detect anomalies. As the LCS measure is expensive to compute, the first part of the paper discusses existing algorithms, such as the Hunt-Szymanski algorithm, that have low time-complexity. We then discuss why these algorithms often do not work well in practice and present a new hybrid algorithm for computing the LCS that, in our tests, outperforms the Hunt-Szymanski algorithm by a factor of five. The second part of the paper presents new algorithms for outlier analysis that provide comprehensible indicators as to why a particular sequence was deemed to be an outlier. The algorithms provide a coherent description to an analyst of the anomalies in the sequence, compared to more normal sequences. The algorithms we present are general and domain-independent, so we discuss applications in related areas such as anomaly detection.

Budalakoti, Suratna↗