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PRIME

SAND2021-0565 O PRIME is a modeling framework designed for the real-time characterization and forecasting of partially observed epidemics. The method is designed to help guide medical resource allocation in the early epoch of the outbreak. Characterization is the estimation of infection spread parameters using daily counts of symptomatic patients. The estimation problem is posed as one of Bayesian inference and solved using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. The framework can accommodate multiple epidemic waves and can help identify different disease dynamics at the regional, state, and country levels. Examples are provided using publicly available COVID-19 data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Safta, Cosmin↗

Grating-Based Imaging-Scattering with Portable Neutron Generator

Company: Adelphi Technology, Inc. Title: Grating-Based Imaging-Scattering with Portable Neutron Generator PI: Dr. Jay Theodore Cremer, Jr. Topic: 26a Statement of the problem or situation that is being addressed. Successful plant growth depends upon an efficient and robust root system. The plant root is part of a larger system of water and microbial flows in the soil system. While much effort has been exerted to develop an imaging system for water, microbes, and roots, the problem is challenging, and no widely accepted imaging method currently exists. The optical solutions use a highly modified soil system. X-ray imaging methods are insensitive to the soft tissues in the presence of sand. Thermal neutron imaging has been often tested, but found inadequate, due to limited access and low image resolution. This project will develop a new strategy for neutron imaging of plant/soil systems. The project will allow long duration experiments in greenhouse environments and increase the image information content to the micron scale. General statement of how this problem is being addressed. Portable, rugged thermal and fast neutron sources are being developed where portable means a two-soldier team can carry the source and power unit to survey rough terrain for explosives. In the past decade, microfabrication of X-ray and thermal/cold neutron optics has opened a new imaging strategy. The standard transmission image is now supplemented with simultaneous acquisition of a phase contrast image and an image revealing scattering features. In materials science, the interferometric neutron scattering image has been used to detect early crack formation in stressed additive manufacturing test samples. The detection requires sensitivity to scattering features at the 1-micron scale. By addition of our proposed grating-optic to Adelphi Technology’s radiographic/tomographic imaging system, which is based on portable thermal neutron source, the resulting thermal neutron scatter image of the plant/soil system, will reveal details at 1-micron. Commercial Applications and Other Benefits Neutron interferometry imaging has greater penetration through large metal components compared to industrial X-ray imaging. The low-cost, large area optics developed for greenhouse applications, combined with the robust, portable neutron generator, can then be marketed as a system for inspection of additive manufactured components. In the aerospace industry, all freshly printed components are validated with X-ray CT. Scheduled maintenance again requires X-ray CT as the ability to predict aerospace component lifetime does not yet exist. Large aerospace components are only partially observed with X-ray imaging. Key Words Neutron radiography/tomography, grating interferometry, thermal neutron generator imaging, plant root and soil imaging, rhizosphere imaging, deployable neutron imaging systems Summary for Members of Congress A rugged, portable source of thermal neutrons is adapted for neutron interferometry imaging with the addition of low-cost, 3D printed optics. The first application of our proposed deployable, compact thermal neutron generator imaging system, using a grating optic, is plant root/soil science in greenhouse settings and agricultural laboratories.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Inverse Reinforcement Learning based Bayesian Goal Inference Method for Early Nuclear Proliferation Detection

Traditional methods for detection of nuclear proliferation indicators are usually applied after nuclear proliferation has already occurred. There is a need to advance these methods to perform early detection of nuclear proliferation indicators. In this project, we formulated an early detection problem as a sequential, decision-making, goal inference problem based on research publications of authors, to determine whether it is possible to infer whether an author will publish on a research activity before it has occurred. To develop and test our approach, we selected a civil nuclear activity for our case study. We constructed a state-action-state transition graph from publications of authors associated with the activity and the co-authors of their publications, using titles, abstracts, and author publication sequences. We then used inverse reinforcement learning to model the goal-directed behavior of authors in trajectories that terminate at selected goal states. Using a Bayesian formulation, we computed the probability that authors would reach each selected state from partially observed trajectories of their state transitions in their research topic space. The state with the highest probability was selected as the most probable goal state. Based on our results, we found that 60% of the times we can infer the correct goal state early; sometimes the inference is either delayed, or multiple states could be inferred as goal states. Overall, our results show that it is possible to perform early detection of research activities of authors in a nuclear technology area. Further research is necessary to establish a more accurate understanding of how topic modeling, topic space grid discretization, and the extent of overlap among trajectories of different goal states, affect the goal inference results. The methods developed in this work may be used to enhance data-driven methods for early detection of nuclear proliferation indicators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Probabilistic data fusion and physics-informed machine learning: A new paradigm for modeling under uncertainty, and its application to accelerating the discovery of new materials

In this report we summarize the work conducted by PI Perdikaris and his group under this Early Career project DE–SC0019116 during the period of 09/01/2018 – 08/31/2023. The central aim of the work was to introduce a new paradigm for scientific data analysis that can seamlessly synthesize rigorous mathematical modeling with data of variable fidelity (e.g., measurements at multiple scales/resolutions or predictions of variable fidelity models) and multiple modalities (e.g., images, time–series, or scattered measurements). The setting we are interested in involves complex systems that are partially observed and whose dynamical behavior could be hard to model or totally unknown. The inherent uncertainty associated with this setting necessitates a departure from the classical deterministic realm of modeling and scientific computation, and, consequently, our main building blocks can no longer be crisp deterministic numbers and governing laws, but instead we must operate with probabilistic models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multi-trait multi-environment genomic prediction strategies for Miscanthus sacchariflorus

Genomic selection holds the potential to serve as a strategic tool to enhance the genetic gain of complex traits in Miscanthus breeding programs. The development of improved cultivars requires their assessment for various traits across diverse environments to ensure suitable overall performance. Hence, the multi-trait multi-environment (MTME) genomic prediction (GP) models offer an opportunity to improve selection accuracy. This study aims to evaluate the potential of five GP models: (1) three MTME models including genotype-by-trait-by-environment interaction (G×E×T) and (2) two single-trait multi-environment (STME) models (with and without G×E interaction). A Miscanthus sacchariflorus population comprising 336 genotypes evaluated in three environments and scored for four traits (biomass yield YDY, total culm number TCM, average internode length AIL, and culm node number CNN) was analyzed. The predictive ability of the models was evaluated considering three cross-validation schemes resembling realistic scenarios (CV1: predicting new genotypes, CVP: predicting missing traits in a given environment, and CV2: predicting partially observed genotypes). On average, in all cross-validation schemes compared to the STME the predictive ability of the MTME models was 10% to 70% higher for TCM and AIL. On the other hand, for YDY and CNN, both STME models performed similarly or slightly better (between 5 to 64%) than the MTME models in most environments. While the MTME models were not successful for all traits when compared to their STME counterparts, MTME models improved the prediction of the performance of genotypes that were untested across environments or lacked trait information in a specific environment. Overall, our study suggests that MTME GP models can be implemented in Miscanthus breeding programs to improve the predictive ability of the complex traits, shorten breeding cycles, and accelerate selection decisions.

genomic prediction (GP)↗

Dynamic Modeling, Trajectory Optimization, and Linear Control of Cable-Driven Parallel Robots for Automated Panelized Building Retrofits

The construction industry faces a growing need for automation to reduce costs, improve accuracy and productivity, and address labor shortages. One area that stands to benefit significantly from automation is panelized prefabricated building envelope retrofits, which can improve a building’s energy efficiency in heating and cooling interior spaces. In this paper, we propose using cable-driven parallel robots (CDPRs), which can effectively lift and handle large objects, to install these panels. However, implementing CDPRs presents significant challenges because of their nonlinear dynamics, complex trajectory planning, and precise control requirements. To tackle these challenges, this work focuses on a new application of established control and trajectory optimization theories in a CDPR simulation of a building envelope retrofit under real-world conditions. We first model the dynamics of CDPRs, highlighting the critical role of damping in system behavior. Building on this dynamic model, we formulate a trajectory optimization problem to generate feasible and efficient motion plans for the robot under operational and environmental constraints. Given the high precision required in the construction industry, accurately tracking the optimized trajectory is essential. However, challenges such as partial observability and external vibrations complicate this task. To address these issues, a Linear Quadratic Gaussian control framework is applied, enabling the robot to track the optimized trajectories with precision. Simulation results show that the proposed controller enables precise end effector positioning with errors under 4 mm, even in the presence of external wind disturbances. Through comprehensive simulations, our approach allows for an in-depth exploration of the system’s nonlinear dynamics, trajectory optimization, and control strategies under controlled yet highly realistic conditions. The results demonstrate the feasibility of CDPRs for automating panel installation and provide insights into their practical deployment.

CDPR↗

Bioverse: A Comprehensive Assessment of the Capabilities of Extremely Large Telescopes to Probe Earth-like O 2 Levels in Nearby Transiting Habitable-zone Exoplanets

Molecular oxygen is a strong indicator of life on Earth and may indicate biological processes on exoplanets too. Recent studies proposed that Earth-like O 2 levels might be detectable on nearby exoplanets using high-resolution spectrographs on future extremely large telescopes (ELTs). However, these studies did not consider constraints like relative velocities, planet occurrence rates, and target observability. We expanded on past studies by creating a homogeneous catalog of 286,391 main-sequence stars within 120 pc using Gaia DR3 and used the Bioverse framework to simulate the likelihood of finding nearby transiting Earth analogs. We also simulated a survey of M dwarfs within 20 pc accounting for η ⊕ estimates, transit probabilities, relative velocities, and target observability to determine how long ELTs and theoretical 50–100 m ground-based telescopes need to observe to probe for Earth-like O 2 levels with an R = 100,000 spectrograph. This would only be possible within 50 yr for up to ~21% of nearby M-dwarf systems if a suitable transiting habitable-zone Earth analog was discovered, assuming signals from every observable partial transit from each ELT can be combined. If so, Earth-like O 2 levels could be detectable on TRAPPIST-1 d–g within 16–55 yr, respectively, and about half that time with an R = 500,000 spectrograph. These results have important implications for whether ELTs can survey nearby habitable-zone Earth analogs for O 2 via transmission spectroscopy. Our work provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of the ground-based capabilities to search for life beyond the solar system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Robotic Planning under Uncertainty in Spatiotemporal Environments in Expeditionary Science

In the expeditionary sciences, spatiotemporally varying environments -- hydrothermal plumes, algal blooms, lava flows, or animal migrations -- are ubiquitous. Mobile robots are uniquely well-suited to study these dynamic, mesoscale natural environments. We formalize expeditionary science as a sequential decision-making problem, modeled using the language of partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Solving the expeditionary science POMDP under real-world constraints requires efficient probabilistic modeling and decision-making in problems with complex dynamics and observational models. Previous work in informative path planning, adaptive sampling, and experimental design have shown compelling results, largely in static environments, using data-driven models and information-based rewards. However, these methodologies do not trivially extend to expeditionary science in spatiotemporal environments: they generally do not make use of scientific knowledge such as equations of state dynamics, they focus on information gathering as opposed to scientific task execution, and they make use of decision-making approaches that scale poorly to large, continuous problems with long planning horizons and real-time operational constraints. In this work, we discuss these and other challenges related to probabilistic modeling and decision-making in expeditionary science, and present some of our preliminary work that addresses these gaps. We ground our results in a real expeditionary science deployment of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) in the deep ocean for hydrothermal vent discovery and characterization. Our concluding thoughts highlight remaining work to be done, and the challenges that merit consideration by the reinforcement learning and decision-making community.

Preston, Victoria↗

Optimal PV Inverter Control in Distribution Systems via Data-Driven Distributionally Robust Optimization

Distribution systems with high penetration of uncertain solar generation call for advanced control strategies of photovoltaics (PVs) inverters. This paper proposes a data-driven distributionally robust optimization (DDDRO) approach to optimally controlling the PV inverters to improve the system operation performance under solar power uncertainties. In the proposed DDDRO approach, a Wasserstein ball-based method is proposed to construct the distributional ambiguity set to model the uncertainties of PV generation through partial observations of historical data without knowing exact probability distributions. We further reformulate the computationally intractable DDDRO model to a mixed integer second order cone programming (MISOCP) problem. The effectiveness and out-of-sample performance of the proposed approach have been demonstrated on a modified IEEE 33-node system. We conduct a comparative study to compare the proposed method with traditional chance constrained programming (CCP). It shows that the proposed DDDRO approach can provide a less conservative yet robust solution to minimize the worse-case expectation of the total network loss while maintaining nodal voltages in a secure range.

Xue, Yaosuo↗

Constrained Block Nonlinear Neural Dynamical Models

Neural network modules conditioned by known priors can be effectively trained and combined to represent systems with nonlinear dynamics. This work explores a novel formulation for data-efficient learning of deep control-oriented nonlinear dynamical models by embedding local model structure and constraints. The proposed method consists of neural network blocks that represent input, state, and output dynamics with constraints placed on the network weights and system variables. For handling partially observable dynamical systems, we utilize a state observer neural network to estimate the states of the system's latent dynamics. We evaluate the performance of the proposed architecture and training methods on system identification tasks for three nonlinear systems: a continuous stirred tank reactor, a two tank interacting system, and an aerodynamics body. Models optimized with a few thousand system state observations accurately represent system dynamics in open loop simulation over thousands of time steps from a single set of initial conditions. Experimental results demonstrate an order of magnitude reduction in open-loop simulation mean squared error for our constrained, block-structured neural models when compared to traditional unstructured and unconstrained neural network models.

Skomski, Elliott↗

Finite ion temperature effects on electrostatic instabilities in partially magnetized plasmas

In this paper, the effects of warm ions on electrostatic, kinetic instabilities observed in partially magnetized plasmas, such as the electron cyclotron drift instability (ECDI) and modified two-stream instability (MTSI), are investigated. The kinetic dispersion relation that accounts for warm, non-magnetized ions and warm, magnetized electrons is solved using a complex root-finding technique [A. C. Denig and K. Hara, Phys. Plasmas 30, 032108 (2023)]. It is observed that finite ion temperature introduces ion Landau damping effects, decreasing the growth rate of most unstable modes. The high-frequency, short-wavelength ECDI modes are more strongly affected by ion Landau damping than the low-frequency, long-wavelength MTSI modes. The solutions of the kinetic dispersion relation for MTSI are compared with the fluid dispersion relation of MTSI, which was originally proposed by McBride et al. [Phys. Fluids 15 2367–2383 (1972)]. The differences in the dispersion characteristics between the kinetic and fluid MTSI limits are assessed, illustrating the effects of electron and ion Landau damping on kinetic instabilities in partially magnetized plasmas.

Denig, A. C. (ORCID:0000000253339572)↗

Creep anisotropy modeling and uncertainty quantification of an additively manufactured Ni-based superalloy

The advantages offered by additive manufacturing over traditional processes has driven a great deal of industrial and academic interest in recent years. However, the process is relatively new and requires additional investigation to become sufficiently mature for wide scale industrial adoption. Electron beam melting powder bed fusion is one technology that has shown promise for fabricating high temperature resistant materials such as nickel based superalloys. The resulting microstructures typically exhibit a strong fiber texture in the build direction giving rise to anisotropic time-dependent deformation behavior. In order to accelerate the qualification of these materials for industrial adoption accurate numerical models are needed for simulating their behavior. In this work a crystal plasticity model including non-Schmid effects is presented for capturing creep anisotropy observed in additively manufactured IN738LC. The model is calibrated via a probabilistic framework where model parameters are treated as random variables. An iterative sequential design strategy is utilized to efficiently identify the probability density of the unknown model parameters. As a case study the model is utilized to investigate the behavior of randomly oriented equiaxed grain clusters sometimes observed embedded in the additively manufactured columnar structure. A synthetic realization is simulated and uncertainty is propagated through to the full-field response. Results indicate that these features are the source of significant creep relaxation and strain accumulation which partially explains observed grain boundary decohesion at these locations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Mixed Nd 4+/3+ and Cluster Magnetism in Hexagonal Perovskite 12R-Ba 4 NdMn 3 O 12−γ

Hexagonal perovskite oxides with 12R stacking host well-separated face-sharing octahedral metal trimers with short metal–metal distances, leading in some cases to large degrees of magnetic frustration and cluster magnetism. Introducing magnetic ions in proximity to these trimers can influence the degree of frustration and cluster magnetism, but the extent to which the magnetism can be tuned by varying neighboring metal cations remains an open question. In this work, we test the impacts of using Nd in proximity to Mn trimers in the hexagonal perovskite 12R-Ba 4 NdMn 3 O 12−γ . Given this stoichiometry, Nd should assume the 4+ oxidation state with a spin state of S = 1, which would be the first realization of Nd 4+ in an oxide environment. Through detailed bulk magnetic, X-ray absorption spectroscopic, and powder neutron diffraction (PND) measurements, we find that Nd 4+ is realized in this material, but there is also partial reduction to Nd 3+ , which is charge-balanced by O vacancies. Magnetometry measurements indicate an antiferromagnetic ordering temperature T N ≈ 16 K, and PND measurements reveal a surprising collinear antiferromagnetic structure with magnetic space group Pc2/m (no. 10.49 in BNS notation), which has not previously been seen in this class of materials. Our results represent a comprehensive analysis of the structural, electronic, and magnetic properties of 12R-Ba 4 NdMn 3 O 12−γ , showing the first observation of partial Nd 4+ in an oxide, and demonstrating that this structural class can host a broad range of magnetic structures which are not easily predicted based on compositional trends.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Operando study of HfO 2 atomic layer deposition on partially hydroxylated Si(111)

The introduction of atomic layer deposition (ALD), to the microelectronics industry has introduced a large number of new possible materials able to be deposited in layers with atomic thickness control. One such material is the high-κ oxide HfO 2 ; thermally stable and ultrathin HfO 2 films deposited by ALD are a significant contender to replace SiO 2 as the gate oxide in capacitor applications. We present a mechanistic study of the first deposition cycle of HfO 2 on the Si(111) surface using tetrakis(dimethylamido) hafnium (TDMAHf) and water as precursors using operando ambient pressure x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Here, we show that the hydroxylation of the clean Si(111) surface by residual water vapor, resulting in a 0.3 monolayer coverage of hydroxyls, leads to instantaneous full surface coverage of TDMAHf. The change in the atomic ratio of Hf to C/N found during the first deposition half-cycle, however, does not match the assumed immediate ligand loss through reaction with surface hydroxyls. One would expect an immediate loss of ligands, indicated by a Hf:N ratio of approximately 1:3 as TDMAHf deposits onto the surface; however, a Hf:N ratio of 1:3.6 is observed. The partial hydroxylation on the Si(111) surface leads to binding through the TDMAHf ligand N atoms resulting in both N and CH 3 being found remaining on the surface post water half-cycle. Although there is evidence of ligand exchange reactions occurring at Si–OH sites, it also seems that N binding can occur on bare Si, highlighting the complexity of the substrate/precursor reaction even when hydroxyls are present. Moreover, the initial low coverage of Si–OH/Si–H appears to severely limit the amount of Hf deposited, which we hypothesize is due to the specific geometry of the initial arrangement of Si–OH/Si–H on the rest- and adatoms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Understanding Electrochemical Reaction Mechanisms of Sulfur in All‐Solid‐State Batteries through Operando and Theoretical Studies **

Abstract Due to its outstanding safety and high energy density, all‐solid‐state lithium‐sulfur batteries (ASLSBs) are considered as a potential future energy storage technology. The electrochemical reaction pathway in ASLSBs with inorganic solid‐state electrolytes is different from Li‐S batteries with liquid electrolytes, but the mechanism remains unclear. By combining operando Raman spectroscopy and ex situ X‐ray absorption spectroscopy, we investigated the reaction mechanism of sulfur (S 8 ) in ASLSBs. Our results revealed that no Li 2 S 8, Li 2 S 6, and Li 2 S 4 were formed, yet Li 2 S 2 was detected. Furthermore, first‐principles structural calculations were employed to disclose the formation energy of solid state Li 2 S n (1≤ n ≤8), in which Li 2 S 2 was a metastable phase, consistent with experimental observations. Meanwhile, partial S 8 and Li 2 S 2 remained at the full lithiation stage, suggesting incomplete reaction due to sluggish reaction kinetics in ASLSBs.

Cao, Daxian↗

Understanding Electrochemical Reaction Mechanisms of Sulfur in All‐Solid‐State Batteries through Operando and Theoretical Studies **

Abstract Due to its outstanding safety and high energy density, all‐solid‐state lithium‐sulfur batteries (ASLSBs) are considered as a potential future energy storage technology. The electrochemical reaction pathway in ASLSBs with inorganic solid‐state electrolytes is different from Li‐S batteries with liquid electrolytes, but the mechanism remains unclear. By combining operando Raman spectroscopy and ex situ X‐ray absorption spectroscopy, we investigated the reaction mechanism of sulfur (S 8 ) in ASLSBs. Our results revealed that no Li 2 S 8, Li 2 S 6, and Li 2 S 4 were formed, yet Li 2 S 2 was detected. Furthermore, first‐principles structural calculations were employed to disclose the formation energy of solid state Li 2 S n (1≤ n ≤8), in which Li 2 S 2 was a metastable phase, consistent with experimental observations. Meanwhile, partial S 8 and Li 2 S 2 remained at the full lithiation stage, suggesting incomplete reaction due to sluggish reaction kinetics in ASLSBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Self-cleaning and de-pollution efficacies of photocatalytic architectural membranes

Photocatalytic self-cleaning “cool” roofs and walls can maintain high albedos, saving building cooling energy, reducing peak power demand, and mitigating the urban heat island effect. Other environmental benefits result from their de-polluting properties. Specimens from two different photocatalytic architectural membranes and a non-photocatalytic control were exposed alongside vertically, facing west, for two years at three California sites, and retrieved quarterly for testing. Photocatalytic materials showed excellent self-cleaning performance, retaining albedos of 0.74 – 0.75. By contrast, the control material exhibited an albedo loss of up to 0.10, with appreciable soiling observed by scanning electron microscopy. De-pollution capacity was assessed by quantifying NO removal and NOx deposition rates at 60 °C. Furthermore, efficacy varied with exposure location, weather conditions, and the nature of the photocatalytic material. Seasonal effects were observed, with partial inhibition during the dry season and reactivation during the rainy season.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗