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DOE OSTI2024

Anticipating Technical Expertise and Capability Evolution in Research Communities Using Dynamic Graph Transformers

The ability to anticipate global technical expertise and capability evolution trends is essential for national and global security, especially in safety-critical domains such as nuclear nonproliferation (NN) and rapidly emerging fields like artificial intelligence (AI). Here, in this work, we extend traditional statistical relational learning approaches (e.g., link prediction in collaboration networks) and formulate a problem of anticipating technical expertise and capability evolution using dynamic heterogeneous graph representations. We develop novel capabilities to forecast collaboration patterns, authorship behavior, and technical capability evolution at different granularities (e.g., scientist and institution levels) in two distinct research fields. We implement a dynamic graph transformer (DGT) neural architecture, which pushes the state-of-the-art graph neural network models by: 1) forecasting heterogeneous (rather than homogeneous) nodes and edges; and 2) relying on both discrete- and continuous-time inputs. We demonstrate that our DGT models predict collaboration, partnership, and expertise patterns with 0.26, 0.73, and 0.53 mean reciprocal rank values for AI and 0.48, 0.93, and 0.22 for NN domains. DGT model performance exceeds the best-performing static graph baseline models by 30%–80% across AI and NN domains. Our findings demonstrate that DGT models boost inductive task performance when previously unseen nodes appear in the test data for the domains with emerging collaboration patterns (e.g., AI). Specifically, models accurately predict which established scientists will collaborate with early career scientists and vice versa in the AI domain.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Comprehensive Calibration Framework for the Northwest River Forecast Center

We present a comprehensive framework developed by the Northwest River Forecast Center for calibrating hydrologically diverse basins. The framework includes models for snow, soil moisture, routing, channel loss, and consumptive use. Data inputs include a wide range of open-access datasets for meteorology, land use, topography, and land cover. The framework uses conceptual hydrologic models to handle basins with various hydrologic regimes including rain-driven and snowmelt-dominated basins. We also develop a flexible automatic calibration system that can handle numerous unobservable model parameters in a computationally efficient manner. A single-basin automatic calibration run can typically be completed on a modern laptop in under 10 min. We found that model performance metrics for this new approach match the quality of the NWRFC's previous labor-intensive manual calibrations. The model performance also rivals that of a state-of-the-art deep learning model at a fraction of the computational cost. This framework presents a new standard for the quality of calibrations possible with lumped conceptual hydrologic models, combining careful data curation, an objective calibration framework, and expert local knowledge. In addition, we have made software packages available for the entire suite of National Weather Service River Forecast System models, including SAC-SMA, SNOW-17, and Lag-K. These modern interfaces are intended to increase accessibility and facilitate future research.

Forecasting↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving tropical cyclone rapid intensification forecasts with satellite measurements of sea surface salinity and calibrated machine learning

Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TC) is a mission known for large errors. One under-researched factor that affects TC intensification is salinity, which is important for density stratification in certain ocean regions and can affect the surface enthalpy flux under a strengthening hurricane. To investigate the impact and efficacy of using salinity information in state-of-the-art forecasting, we use a statistical model consisting of a variety of machine learning (ML) methods. For salinity data, we use satellite measurements of pre-storm sea surface salinity (SSS) as a proxy for the salinity stratification. We train and test the model on various ocean basins, including the Atlantic, eastern North Pacific and western North Pacific. A calibrator is trained on top of the ML models to correct and enhance probability forecasts. The calibrator significantly improves probability forecasts relative to recent works. The ML model performance is improved with the addition of SSS in the Eastern North Pacific, western North Pacific, and the Caribbean subregion of the North Atlantic, and the overall model performance is better than previous studies. SSS decreases model skill for a model trained on the full Atlantic basin. In the Indian Ocean, SSS is also notably correlated with RI occurrence, but the TC samples are not sufficient to train ML models.

hurricane↗

DOE OSTI2025

Geospatial modeling of near subsurface temperatures of the contiguous United States for assessment of materials degradation

Abstract Understanding subsurface temperature variations is crucial for assessing material degradation in underground structures. This study maps subsurface temperatures across the contiguous United States for depths from 50 to 3500 m, comparing linear interpolation, gradient boosting (LightGBM), neural networks, and a novel hybrid approach combining linear interpolation with LightGBM. Results reveal heterogeneous temperature patterns both horizontally and vertically. The hybrid model performed best achieving a root mean square error of 2.61 °C at shallow depths (50–350 m). Model performance generally decreased with depth, highlighting challenges in deep temperature prediction. State-level analyses emphasized the importance of considering local geological factors. This study provides valuable insights for designing efficient underground facilities and infrastructure, underscoring the need for depth-specific and region-specific modeling approaches in subsurface temperature assessment.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Forest aboveground biomass estimation through integration of sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 time series: assessing models trained on GEDI and field inventory benchmarks

Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets: NASA GEDI LiDAR-derived biomass and Mexico’s National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS). Our results showed that models trained on INFyS consistently outperformed those trained on GEDI, highlighting limitations in GEDI’s reliability in biomass estimates within this study region. Furthermore, the integration of Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 provided improved predictions compared to single-sensor models, particularly when combined with temporally explicit yearly statistics. The best-performing model, which was trained on INFyS data, and considered both Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 yearly statistics, as well as topographic variables, achieved an R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 51.10 Mg/ha, and relative RMSE (rRMSE) of 58.69%. Explainable ML analysis identified Sentinel-2 spectral indices and topographic features as key predictors, while PALSAR-2 metrics provided complementary information, partially mitigating saturation effects in high-biomass areas. Specifically, integrating both sensors substantially improved AGB estimation in high biomass forest (≥200 Mg/ha), yielding 98% gains over optical-only model, with resulting estimates exceeding GEDI L4B by 29% and ESA-CCI-BIOMASS by 174%. Terrain-stratified analysis indicated close agreement with GEDI in low-slope areas, with increasing divergence as slope steepness increased, while estimates remained consistently higher than ESA-CCI-BIOMASS across all slope classes. The proposed approach advances multi-sensor fusion and temporal feature engineering for AGB mapping using open-access satellite datasets, providing a scalable and reproducible framework for annual biomass monitoring in topographically complex mountainous forests. The resulting 25 m resolution biomass product has the potential to provide spatially detailed information for forest monitoring and may support applications in carbon accounting and forest management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of Data-Driven Models for Performance Prediction and Chemical Dosing of a Full-Scale Controlled Phosphorus Precipitation Reactor

This study evaluated the use of data-driven models to improve control of a struvite precipitation reactor that removes phosphorus from wastewater while producing a fertilizer product. The researchers developed predictive models for influent orthophosphate concentration, effluent orthophosphate concentration, and phosphorus removal using operational data from a full-scale MagPrex™ reactor at a water resource recovery facility in Denver, Colorado. Model predictions were used to recommend magnesium chloride dosing adjustments needed to achieve a target effluent phosphorus concentration. Several machine learning approaches were tested, with ridge regression providing the best predictions for influent orthophosphate concentration and phosphorus removal, and XGBoost providing the best predictions for effluent orthophosphate concentration. Simulation results indicated that the decision-support approach could correctly identify dosing adjustments in most cases and reduce chemical use. Full-scale implementation achieved lower accuracy due to changing operating conditions and limited historical data in some operating ranges. Here, the results demonstrate the potential of data-driven tools to support phosphorus recovery process control while also identifying practical limitations that affect deployment in full-scale systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data for Influence of Particle Size on NIR Spectroscopic Characterization of Sorghum Biomass for the Biofuel Industry

NIR spectroscopy is a rapid and accurate green technology for high-throughput biomass characterization, including sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor ), a promising energy crop for the biofuel industry. This study assessed the influence of particle size on NIR spectroscopic analysis (wavelength range: 867–2535 nm) of sorghum biomass composition. Grown under field conditions, a total of 113 types of genetically diverse sorghum accessions were dried, ground, and sieved (<250, 250–600, 600–850, and > 850 µm particle size) for developing partial least square regression (PLSR) prediction models for moisture, ash, extractive, glucan, xylan, acid-soluble lignin (ASL), acid-insoluble lignin (AIL), and total lignin (ASL + AIL). Overall, smaller particle sizes provided better model performance, while no single particle size provided the best performance for all the selected components. With only 9 selected bands and 4 latent variables (LVs), the best PLSR model was obtained for moisture with particle size of 600–850 µm with the square root of the coefficient of determination (R) of 0.85, the ratio of prediction to deviation (RPD) of 2.2, and the root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.46 % in external validation. Similar model performances were also obtained for ash, extractive, glucan, and xylan. This study showed that size reduction could effectively improve NIR spectroscopic analysis for lipid-producing sorghum biomass for the biofuel industry.

Biomass Analytics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Influence of particle size on NIR spectroscopic characterization of sorghum biomass for the biofuel industry

NIR spectroscopy is a rapid and accurate green technology for high-throughput biomass characterization, including sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), a promising energy crop for the biofuel industry. This study assessed the influence of particle size on NIR spectroscopic analysis (wavelength range: 867–2535 nm) of sorghum biomass composition. Grown under field conditions, a total of 113 types of genetically diverse sorghum accessions were dried, ground, and sieved (<250, 250–600, 600–850, and > 850 µm particle size) for developing partial least square regression (PLSR) prediction models for moisture, ash, extractive, glucan, xylan, acid-soluble lignin (ASL), acid-insoluble lignin (AIL), and total lignin (ASL + AIL). Overall, smaller particle sizes provided better model performance, while no single particle size provided the best performance for all the selected components. With only 9 selected bands and 4 latent variables (LVs), the best PLSR model was obtained for moisture with particle size of 600–850 µm with the square root of the coefficient of determination (R) of 0.85, the ratio of prediction to deviation (RPD) of 2.2, and the root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.46 % in external validation. Similar model performances were also obtained for ash, extractive, glucan, and xylan. This study showed that size reduction could effectively improve NIR spectroscopic analysis for lipid-producing sorghum biomass for the biofuel industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Feature review of photovoltaic modeling software utilizing blind performance assessment

While confidence in photovoltaic (PV) modeling software has always been essential, the rapid pace of new PV plant developments makes accuracy and credibility more critical than ever. Independent assessments, particularly through blind modeling comparisons, are therefore necessary to ensure unbiased benchmarking across PV modeling software. Previous studies have been limited by a narrow range of models compared, anonymized results, or system size. This study presents results from the first-ever onymous blind modeling comparison, evaluated using both lab- and utility-scale fixed-tilt, monofacial, south-facing systems at sub-hourly time intervals. Seven commercially used PV software tools were compared: 3E SynaptiQ, PlantPredict, PVsyst, RatedPower, SAM, SolarFarmer, and Solargis Evaluate. Predictions were submitted directly by software representatives, providing unique insights into each software’s implementation and resulting prediction behavior. Notable features, including plane-of-array (POA) transposition model, module temperature model, shading model, and performance model were analyzed and compared. Four summary tables compile these features of the software, serving as a resource to help users understand the methodological differences and select the most suitable software for their applications. The software tools show deviations from mean error in annual yield up to 2.5 % in the lab-scale system, increasing to 6.0 % for the utility-scale system. These differences arise from a combination of user decisions and the inherent behavior of the software, indicating the need for continuous and rigorous validation of modeling methods using these software tools against complex, real-world systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydrologic Model Data for the East Fork Poplar Creek Watershed Simulated with the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS): Streamflow and Network Expansion–Contraction Dynamics

This dataset supports hydrologic modeling and stream network expansion–contraction analysis for the East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) Watershed in Tennessee. It includes a Jupyter notebook for model setup, model configuration files, simulation outputs, and derived products used to evaluate model performance and investigate stream dynamics under varying hydrologic conditions. The dataset was generated using the Watershed Workflow Python package and the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), enabling integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic simulations using a stream-aligned mesh. Outputs include high-resolution time series of streamflow, active network length, water table depth, and related hydrologic variables. Also included are spatially explicit stream persistency indices and classifications of reaches as perennial or non-perennial. These data facilitate reproducibility and support further research on stream intermittency and variability in network extent.The model data archive is organized in following directories:1) model_setup_inputsContains the Watershed Workflow Jupyter notebooks (accessed through any open source code editor), selected input datasets, and resulting ATS input files, including XML files (access through any open source code editor), computational mesh (.exo files can be viewed using Paraview), and meteorological forcing files (.h5 files can be accessed through h5py python package and HDFView open source software). 2) model_outputsIncludes ATS simulation outputs relevant to this study. Time series of spatially integrated or averaged variables (e.g., streamflow, water table depth) are provided as CSV files. Select spatial fields (e.g., ponded depth and water table depth) are saved as pickled Python objects to reduce file size, and can be accessed through pickle package in Python. Key geometry objects from Watershed Workflow—such as the surface mesh and river tree—are also included to support analysis of streamflow persistency and expansion–contraction dynamics. These files can also be accessed through Watershed Workflow Python package.3) model_evaluationProvides observed streamflow time series and field survey-based flow regime classifications used to evaluate model performance. Jupyter notebooks for processing ATS outputs and comparing model predictions with observations to build confidence in the model prior to scientific analysis are also included.4) Q_L_relationshipsContains workflows for generating time series of discharge, active network length, and related hydrologic variables used in the stream network expansion–contraction analysis. Includes routines for delineating baseflow-dominated periods. For each catchment, notebooks and processed data (as pickled DataFrames accessed through Pandas Python package) are provided. 5) figure_scriptsProvides the Jupyter notebooks used to generate the figures presented in the paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Meso-scale modeling of UO2 nuclear fuel to high burnup

To improve the economics of light water reactors for commercial nuclear energy generation, utility operators are seeking to obtain regulatory approval to run UO2 fuel to higher levels of burnup. One potential impediment to obtaining this approval is the phenomenon of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). FFRD can result when fuel experiences a rapid temperature transient, such as that occurring during a Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA). FFRD has historically been most associated with the rim region in UO2 fuel pellets, where the phenomenon of fragmentation is also referred to as pulverization due to the small size of the fragments. More recent evidence suggests that the so-called “dark zone” (due to its appearance in micrographs) that can be observed in the mid-radial regions of high burnup fuel is also susceptible to FFRD. Although empirical fuel performance models have been developed that can adequately predict pulverization in the rim region under typical LWR conditions, a scientific understanding of what underlies fuel restructuring and subsequent FFRD is lacking even in the rim region, and no models are currently available for the behavior the dark zone. To address these challenges, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has employed a multi-scale modeling approach to improve scientific understanding and develop new fuel performance models. In this talk, I will focus on meso-scale efforts, which form a crucial link between atomic-scale and engineering-scale models. Phase-field modeling combined with cluster dynamics is used to predict the restructuring process in the rim region. Phase-field fracture modeling, informed by atomistic simulations, is used to predict the onset of pulverization in the rim region. Combining these techniques together allows the extent of rim pulverization to be predicted. The formation and evolution of the dark zone has also been simulated with the phase-field method, using an improved approach to vacancy source term parameterization. The work shows the important impact of microstructure on fuel performance.

fracture↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Comprehensive Machine Learning Model for Metal–Ligand Binding Prediction: Applications in Chemistry and Biology

A machine-learning (ML) model that predicts metal–ligand binding constants was developed using the open-source Chemprop software. The model was trained on over 30,000 experimental log K 1 values, which include both protonation and metal–ligand stability constants, comprising over 3500 ligands and 10 2 metal ions from 73 total elements, thus generalizing beyond existing limited approaches, which focus only on specific metals or ligand families. The best-performing model included a combination of SMILES-based molecular representations along with descriptors for the metal ion and experimental conditions. It had an external test R 2 value of 0.942, and MAE value of 0.834. A “SMILES-only” simpler version also produced accurate predictions and preserved the binding trends, serving as a quick and easily accessible alternative for users without computational expertise. The SMILES-only model performed comparably to density functional theory (DFT) calculations but utilized a fraction of the computational resources. The model was successfully applied across diverse domains, including bioinorganic chemistry, heavy metal remediation, and sensor development and demonstrated its effectiveness as a rapid and reliable screening tool for both academic and industrial uses.

Ligands↗

DOE OSTI2025

Best estimate of the planetary boundary layer height from multiple remote sensing measurements

Remote sensing measurements have been widely used to estimate the planetary boundary layer height (PBLHT). Each remote sensing approach offers unique strengths and faces different limitations. In this study, we use machine learning (ML) methods to produce a best-estimate PBLHT (PBLHT-BE-ML) by integrating four PBLHT estimates derived from remote sensing measurements at the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory. Three ML models – random forest (RF) classifier, RF regressor, and light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM) – were trained on a dataset from 2017 to 2023 that included radiosonde, various remote sensing PBLHT estimates, and atmospheric meteorological conditions. Evaluations indicated that PBLHT-BE-ML from all three models improved alignment with the PBLHT derived from radiosonde data (PBLHT-SONDE), with LightGBM demonstrating the highest accuracy under both stable and unstable boundary layer conditions. Feature analysis revealed that the most influential input features at the SGP site were the PBLHT estimates derived from (a) potential temperature profiles retrieved using Raman lidar (RL) and atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) measurements (PBLHT-THERMO), (b) vertical velocity variance profiles from Doppler lidar (PBLHT-DL), and (c) aerosol backscatter profiles from micropulse lidar (PBLHT-MPL). The trained models were then used to predict PBLHT-BE-ML at a temporal resolution of 10 min, effectively capturing the diurnal evolution of PBLHT and its significant seasonal variations, with the largest diurnal variation observed over summer at the SGP site. We applied these trained models to data from the ARM Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) field campaign (EPC), where the PBLHT-BE-ML, particularly with the LightGBM model, demonstrated improved accuracy against PBLHT-SONDE. Analyses of model performance at both the SGP and EPC sites suggest that expanding the training dataset to include various surface types, such as ocean and ice-covered areas, could further enhance ML model performance for PBLHT estimation across varied geographic regions.

Zhang, Damao [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fuel Performance Evaluation of THOR-C Experiments

The Temperature Heatsink Overpower Response Commissioning (THOR-C) and THOR-Metal (THOR-M) experiments will be performed as part of an ongoing project for testing sodium fast reactor fuels with the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). The THOR-C experiments consist of fresh metallic fuel pins and have been analyzed using the ABAQUS, Ansys codes and the BISON fuel performance code. THOR-M-Loss of Flow-1 (THOR-M-LOF-1) is designed to test an EBR-II irradiated fuel pin under LOF conditions. Simulation of the THOR-MLOF-1 experiment required first simulating the base irradiation of the fuel pin in EBR-II. MFUEL module of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 [1] is a physics-based metallic fuel performance model applicable to the normal operation, transient scenarios and fuel failure modeling including scenarios with bulk fuel melting. The model has been validated using EBR-II normal operation, separate effect transient tests as well as TREAT M-Series transient tests [2]. In this study, MFUEL models has been utilized together with a new capsule heat transfer model developed in this project. The new heat transfer model was necessary due to (1) significant amount of heat losses that required 2D heat transfer, (2) the presence of a titanium heat sink, rejecting a significant amount of heat, and (3) stagnant coolant conditions, which are inconsistent with SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) heat transfer model. Updates to SAS4A/SASSYS-1 and MFUEL has been described below, followed by a preliminary validation effort using the results from THOR-C-2 fresh fuel capsule experiment. A previous study for THOR-C-2 analysis using BISON code is also utilized in this study to model this test [3]. [1] D. O’Grady, A. J. Brunett, L. Ibarra, A. Karahan, T. Kim, T. S. Sumner, R. Thomas, T. H. Fanning, “The SAS4A/SASSYS-2 Version 5.7 Safety Analysis Code System,” Argonne National Laboratory,ANL/NSE-SAS/5.7, (2023). [2] A. Karahan, T. Kim, T. Fanning, D. O’Grady, “Validation of MFUEL Metal Fuel Performance Models of SAS4A/SASSYS-1,” Argonne National Laboratory, ANL/NSE-23/11, (2023). [3] M. Mihelish, A. Zabriskie, K. Paaren, P. Medvedev, C. Jensen, “Fuel Performance Predictions for the TREAT THOR-C Experiments,” Idaho National Laboratory, INL/RPT-23-73397, Revision 0, (2023)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Challenges in predicting protein-protein interactions of understudied viruses: Arenavirus-human interactions

Understanding protein-protein interactions (PPIs) between viruses and host organisms is crucial for uncovering infection mechanisms and identifying potential therapeutic targets. The ability to generalize PPI predictive models across understudied viruses presents a significant challenge. In this work, we use arenavirus-human PPIs to illustrate the difficulties associated with model generalization, which are compounded by a lack of both positive and negative data. We employ a Transfer Learning approach to investigate arenavirus-human PPIs by utilizing models trained on better-studied virus-human and human-human PPIs. Additionally, we curate and assess four types of negative sampling datasets to evaluate their impact on model performance. Despite the overall high accuracies (93–99 %) and AUPRC scores (0.8–0.9) appearing promising, further analysis indicates that these performance metrics can be misleading due to data leakage, data bias, and overfitting, especially concerning under-represented viral proteins. We reveal these gaps and assess the impact of data imbalance using standard k-fold cross-validation and Independent Blind Testing with a Balanced Dataset, resulting in a drop in accuracy below 50 %. We propose a viral protein-specific evaluation framework that categorizes viral proteins into majority and minority classes based on their representation in the dataset, enabling comparison of model performance across these groups using balanced accuracies. This framework offers a more robust evaluation of model generalizability, addressing biases inherent in standard evaluation techniques and paving the way for more reliable PPI prediction models for understudied viruses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Color Space and Color Resolution on Vehicle Recognition Models

In this study, we analyze both linear and nonlinear color mappings by training on versions of a curated dataset collected in a controlled campus environment. We experiment with color space and color resolution to assess model performance in vehicle recognition tasks. Color encodings can be designed in principle to highlight certain vehicle characteristics or compensate for lighting differences when assessing potential matches to previously encountered objects. The dataset used in this work includes imagery gathered under diverse environmental conditions, including daytime and nighttime lighting. Experimental results inform expectations for possible improvements with automatic color space selection through feature learning. Moreover, we find there is only a gradual decrease in model performance with degraded color resolution, which suggests the need for simplified data collection and processing. By focusing on the most critical features, we could see improved model generalization and robustness, as the model becomes less prone to overfitting to noise or irrelevant details in the data. Such a reduction in resolution will lower computational complexity, leading to quicker training and inference times.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Search for HH → bbτ⁺τ⁻ Using Run 3 Scouting Data Analyze b-tagging and tau-tagging Performance with Unified Particle Transformer

B-tagging and tau-tagging performances play an important role in the search for the rare event HH → bbτ⁺τ⁻. A transformer-based neural network, Unified Particle Transformer, is applied for both tagging tasks, and Run 3 proton–proton collision scouting data at center-of-mass energy of 13.6 TeV is used. The scouting data stream accepts events at a much higher rate compared to traditional triggers, but stores only the objects reconstructed in the trigger, no low-level detector information. Therefore, existing taggers trained for the offline event reconstruction cannot be used. Analysis of the SoftMax plots, ROC/AUC curves, confusion matrix, accuracy and losses are used to evaluate model performance. Specifically, the tagging efficiency of the signal and misidentification probability across multiple background processes are compared for varying working points. Different training samples with distinct distributions of jet flavors are utilized and related model performances are analyzed. Interpretability methods, such as Integrated Gradients, may further be applied to study the input features’ influence on the model’s decisions, providing insights into potential improvements.

Chen, Blair [Purdue U., West Lafayette; Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning Calibration of Groundwater Table Depth in ELM: Impact on Land Surface Hydrology and Land‐Atmosphere Fluxes

Accurate representation of groundwater table depth (GWTD) is crucial for simulating hydrological cycling in Earth system models (ESM). Nevertheless, there is a notable gap in the literature regarding the validation of GWTD simulations in ESMs and their subsequent impact on downstream hydrological components. This study explores the calibration of parameterization of global GWTD using machine learning within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM). Despite achieving significant gains in simulating GWTD through calibration, offline ELM simulations unexpectedly show that these improvements do not translate to substantial enhancements in model performance for other key hydrological variables, including soil moisture (SM), runoff, groundwater contribution to runoff or base flow index (BFI), and evapotranspiration and its partitioning. The performance in SM and runoff was even degraded in some regions, while BFI was mostly overestimated. Although there is significant improvement in GWTD within the critical range of 1–5 m, where groundwater traditionally influences land surface energy fluxes, these improvements occurred mostly in humid areas where the impact of GWTD on surface processes is minimal. Although the impacts of model calibration are generally small in offline ELM simulations, coupled land-atmosphere simulations exhibit much stronger responses to GWTD calibration, highlighting the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks in Earth system modeling. These findings underscore the need for integrated calibration strategies that simultaneously optimize multiple hydrological variables. However, if a single-variable approach is necessary, it is crucial to establish clear priorities for calibration, identifying the most critical variables that have the greatest impact on overall model performance.

Fang, Yilin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗