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NASA NTRS1999

Persistence of the Lower Stratospheric Polar Vortices

The persistence of the Arctic and Antarctic lower stratospheric vortices is examined over the period 1958 to 1998. Three different vortex-following diagnostics (two using potential vorticity and one based solely on the zonal winds) are compared, and shown to give very similar results for the break up date. The variability in the timing of the breakup of each vortex is qualitatively the same: there are large interannual variations together with smaller decadal-scale variations and there is a significant increase in the persistence since the mid-1980s (all variations are larger for the Arctic vortex). Also, in both hemispheres there is a high correlation between the persistence and the strength and coldness of the spring vortex, with all quantities having the same interannual and decadal variability. However, there is no such correlation between the persistence and the characteristics of the mid-winter vortex. In the northern hemisphere there is also a high correlation between the vortex persistence and the upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric eddy heat flux averaged over the two months prior to the breakup. This indicates that the variability in the wave activity entering the stratosphere over late-winter to early-spring plays a key role in the variability of the vortex persistence (and spring polar temperatures) on both interannual and decadal time scales. However, the decadal variation in the Arctic vortex coldness and persistence for the 1990's falls outside the range of natural variability, while this is not the case for the eddy heat flux. This suggests that the recent increase in vortex persistence is not due solely to changes in the wave activity entering the stratosphere.

Waugh, Darryn W.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Persistent Assets in Zero-G and on Planetary Surfaces: Enabled by Modular Technology and Robotic Operations

Space operations are on the cusp of a revolutionary new operational paradigm that leverages modular systems and recurring robotic visits to “Persistent Assets” enabling asset maintenance, repair, and enhancement. A “Persistent Asset” is defined here as any zero-g or planetary surface system that benefits from in-space assembly (ISA) or multiple visits for servicing, repairs, and upgrades. This term is an extension of the term “Persistent Platform” used by Ms. Pam Melroy at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency to describe the vision of the Agency for a geosynchronous Earth orbiting platform. In this paper, the term “Persistent Asset” is introduced to encompass not only zero-g systems; such as telecommunication platforms, Earth observing science platform, Department of Defense platforms, and scientific telescope systems, but also planetary surface systems that support missions such as human outposts, science stations, and in-situ resource utilization systems. In contrast to the current state of the art, where space systems are typically launched as a single unit and operated without any further physical intervention after launch; future systems will be maintained, enhanced and reconfigured in-situ as new technology becomes available or mission needs change. Visits to the persistent asset can be regularly scheduled or dictated by funding constraints enabling a pay-as-you-go approach, which is largely independent of time-constraints and able to exploit launches of opportunity. In this paper, historical in-space assembly activities which relied heavily on astronaut extra-vehicular activity will be reviewed as well as early robotic assembly activities. These approaches will be contrasted with emerging modular approaches supporting realization of a new Persistent Asset operational paradigm. The paper will define attributes of the Persistent Asset paradigm and illustrate advantages by applying the paradigm to two relevant applications: 1) a large space telescope backing structure and 2) the backbone structure for a solar electric transport vehicle. Finally, recently developed unique Persistent Asset elements (modules, and interface approaches) will be described.

Doggett, William R.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Persistent Assets in Zero-G and on Planetary Surfaces: Enabled by Modular Technology and Robotic Operations

William R Doggett↗

DOE OSTI2019

Parametrized homology via zigzag persistence

This paper introduces parametrized homology, a continuous-parameter generalization of levelset zigzag persistent homology that captures the behavior of the homology of the fibers of a real-valued function on a topological space. This information is encoded as a “barcode” of real intervals, each corresponding to a homological feature supported over that interval; or, equivalently, as a persistence diagram. Points in the persistence diagram are classified algebraically into four classes; geometrically, the classes identify the distinct ways in which homological features perish at the boundaries of their interval of persistence. We study the conditions under which spaces fibered over the real line have a well-defined parametrized homology; here, we establish the stability of these invariants and we show how the four classes of persistence diagram correspond to the four diagrams that appear in the theory of extended persistence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Persistence and memory timescales in root‐zone soil moisture dynamics

Abstract The memory timescale that characterizes root‐zone soil moisture remains the dominant measure in seasonal forecasts of land‐climate interactions. This memory is a quasi‐deterministic timescale associated with the losses (e.g., evapotranspiration) from the soil column and is often interpreted as persistence in soil moisture states. Persistence, however, represents a distribution of time periods where soil moisture resides above or below some prescribed threshold and is therefore inherently probabilistic. Using multiple soil moisture data sets collected at high resolution (subhourly) across different biomes and climates, this paper explores the differences, underlying dynamics, and relative importance of memory and persistence timescales in root‐zone soil moisture. A first‐order Markov process, commonly used to interpret soil moisture fluctuations derived from climate simulations, is also used as a reference model. Persistence durations of soil moisture below the plant water‐stress level (chosen as the threshold), and the temporal spectrum of upcrossings and downcrossings of this threshold, are compared to the memory timescale and spectrum of the full time series, respectively. The results indicate that despite the differences between meteorological drivers, the spectrum of threshold‐crossings is similar across sites, and follows a unique relation with that of the full soil moisture series. The distribution of persistence times exhibits an approximate stretched exponential type and reflects a likelihood of exceeding the memory at all sites. However, the rainfall counterpart of these distributions shows that persistence of dry atmospheric periods is less likely at sites with long soil moisture memory. The cluster exponent, a measure of the density of threshold‐crossings in a time frame, reveals that the clustering tendency in rainfall events (on‐off switches) does not translate directly to clustering in soil moisture. This is particularly the case in climates where rainfall and evapotranspiration are out of phase, resulting in less ordered (more independent) persistence in soil moisture than in rainfall.

Ghannam, Khaled↗

DOE OSTI2016

Energy landscapes and persistent minima

We consider a coarse-graining of high-dimensional potential energy landscapes based upon persistences, which correspond to lowest barrier heights to lower-energy minima. Persistences can be calculated efficiently for local minima in kinetic transition networks that are based on stationary points of the prevailing energy landscape. The networks studied here represent peptides, proteins, nucleic acids, an atomic cluster, and a glassy system. Minima with high persistence values are likely to represent some form of alternative structural morphology, which, if appreciably populated at the prevailing temperature, could compete with the global minimum (defined as infinitely persistent). Threshold values on persistences (and in some cases equilibrium occupation probabilities) have therefore been used in this work to select subsets of minima, which were then analysed to see how well they can represent features of the full network. Simplified disconnectivity graphs showing only the selected minima can convey the funnelling (including any multiple-funnel) characteristics of the corresponding full graphs. The effect of the choice of persistence threshold on the reduced disconnectivity graphs was considered for a system with a hierarchical, glassy landscape. Sets of persistent minima were also found to be useful in comparing networks for the same system sampled under different conditions, using minimum oriented spanning forests.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Complex genetics cause and constrain fungal persistence in different parts of the mammalian body

Determining how genetic polymorphisms enable certain fungi to persist in mammalian hosts can improve understanding of opportunistic fungal pathogenesis, a source of substantial human morbidity and mortality. We examined the genetic basis of fungal persistence in mice using a cross between a clinical isolate and the lab reference strain of the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Employing chromosomally encoded DNA barcodes, we tracked the relative abundances of 822 genotyped, haploid segregants in multiple organs over time and performed linkage mapping of their persistence in hosts. Detected loci showed a mix of general and antagonistically pleiotropic effects across organs. General loci showed similar effects across all organs, while antagonistically pleiotropic loci showed contrasting effects in the brain vs the kidneys, liver, and spleen. Persistence in an organ required both generally beneficial alleles and organ-appropriate pleiotropic alleles. This genetic architecture resulted in many segregants persisting in the brain or in nonbrain organs, but few segregants persisting in all organs. These results show complex combinations of genetic polymorphisms collectively cause and constrain fungal persistence in different parts of the mammalian body.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Strategic Energy Management Program Persistence and Cost Effectiveness An Analysis of the SEM Program Landscape

This study examines the relationship between strategic energy management (SEM) programs and their persistence and cost effectiveness, with analysis based on interview data from 24 SEM program administrators, SEM program evaluations, and other reports. The 80 interview questions focused on the topics of program design, energy savings, energy savings persistence, cost effectiveness, and customer SEM persistence. The generosity of interview respondents provided a wealth of data, resulting in a report of sufficient length to warrant inclusion of this brief guide of the report structure. The major sections are listed below with brief descriptions. Individual sections of this report are mainly stand-alone and do not require reading of other sections. As a result, there is some duplication between sections, but with differing levels of detail. Executive Summary: Presents three key conclusions of this work with a short description of potential actions to advance the understanding of each key finding. Brief Observations: Lists a large number of bulleted observations resulting from this research, arranged by the five major topic areas included in the interviews. Analysis details are provided in the Analysis of Interview Results section. Foundations for this Research: Provides an overview of SEM, SEM frameworks, SEM programs, the topics of persistence and cost effectiveness, and the focus of this research. Methodology: Details the approach and strategy of this research, providing background information relevant to the formulation of interview questions and the identification of which SEM programs to interview. Observations from Compiled Evaluations and Other Reports: Reports observations from the collection and analysis of program evaluations, annual reports, utility planning documents, and SEM-related white papers. This section, presented in bullet form, highlights challenges in data collection and ultimately a comparison of program practices as they pertain to persistence and cost effectiveness. Analysis of Interview Results: Presents detailed analysis of responses from SEM program administrators, arranged by the five major categories examined: program design, energy savings, energy savings persistence, cost effectiveness, and customer SEM persistence. Interview questions are generally grouped together into subsections when it makes sense to examine them together. SEM Programs Challenge Traditional Cost-Effectiveness Metrics: Details an analysis based on five key factors showing that applying traditional cost-effectiveness metrics to SEM programs is not straightforward. This invites the opportunity to consider whether traditional cost-effectiveness metrics are applicable to SEM programs, either individually or at large. Resolution of Research Hypotheses: Tabulates a set of hypotheses that were developed to address the fundamental nature of the research at hand. Analysis of responses to multiple questions informs an understanding of each hypothesis and can be used to better understand the SEM program environment at large.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Photophysics and Spin-Physics Studies on Persistent Upconversion Luminescence from Nonlinearly Polarizable Ferroelectric-Like Lattice Prepared by Orderly Packing Donor–Acceptor Structures under Multiphoton Excitation

The ultralong-lived upconversion luminescence with the lifetime of 0.48 s in a broad spectral range (530–650 nm) is observed in CD49 (9-(3-(5-bromopyridin-3-yl)prop-2-yn-1-yl)-9H-carbazole) crystal designed with donor–acceptor (carbazole–pyridine) structures under infrared excitation, simultaneously accompanied with second harmonic generation (SHG). This phenomenon indicates orderly packing donor–acceptor structures form a nonlinearly polarizable ferroelectric-like lattice with ultralong-lived light-emitting states, leading to much prolonged nonlinear optical behaviors. The persistent upconversion luminescence together with SHG is largely reduced when lowering crystallinity. This implies that nonlinearly polarizable ferroelectric-like lattice provides the necessary condition to generate persistent upconversion luminescence. Evidently, persistent upconversion luminescence becomes completely lacking when only using ultralong-lived light-emitting states without nonlinearly polarizable ferroelectric-like lattice, exampled by 4-(dimethylamino)benzonitrile dispersed in polyvinyl alcohol matrix. Magneto-photoluminescence shows that persistent upconversion luminescence is essentially a super-delayed fluorescence from crystalline intermolecular charge-transfer excitons formed in the nonlinearly polarizable ferroelectric-like lattice. Magnetodielectrics indicate crystalline intermolecular charge-transfer excitons are coupled with nonlinearly polarizable ferroelectric-like lattice, leading to prolonged nonlinear optical behaviors shown as persistent upconversion luminescence through super delayed fluorescence. In conclusion, therefore, crystalline intermolecular charge-transfer excitons formed in nonlinearly polarizable ferroelectric-like lattice provide an interesting platform to generate prolonged nonlinear optical behaviors toward developing persistent upconversion luminescence under multiphoton excitation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Evaluating the role of Burkholderia pseudomallei K96243 toxins BPSS0390, BPSS0395, and BPSS1584 in persistent infection

Burkholderia pseudomallei is the causative agent of melioidosis, a disease with a mortality rate of up to 40% even with treatment. Despite the ability of certain antibiotics to control initial infection, relapse occurs in treated patients. The inability of antibiotics to clear this bacterial infection is in part due to persistence, an evasion mechanism against antibiotics and the effect of host defenses. Evaluation of antibiotic efficacy against B. pseudomallei revealed that up to 48% of in vitro grown populations can survive in a persister state. Toxin–antitoxin (TA) systems have been previously implicated in modulating bacterial persistence. Here, we generated three isogenic TA mutants and found that loss of each toxin gene did not alter antibiotic persistence or macrophage survival. In response to macrophage–induced persistence, all three toxin mutants demonstrated increased intracellular susceptibility to levofloxacin which in part was due to the inability of the mutants to induce persistence after nitric oxide or nutrient starvation. In an inhalational model of murine melioidosis, both ΔBPSS0395 and ΔBPSS1584 strains were attenuated, and treatment with levofloxacin led to significant reduction in lung colonisation and reduced splenic colonisation by ΔBPSS0395. Based on our findings, these toxins deserve additional evaluation as putative therapeutic targets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Climatic controls on soil and saprock nitrogen distribution and persistence in the Sierra Nevada

Nitrogen (N) is an essential nutrient in soil that regulates plant growth, terrestrial sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and persistence of organic compounds. However, major knowledge gaps remain about how climate change may impact N accumulation and persistence, especially in deep soil and saprock (friable weakly weathered bedrock). Our objective was to understand how climate impacts the accumulation of N in soil and saprock and how climate impacts soil N distribution, persistence, and mechanisms of N persistence. We investigated N concentration in bulk soil and density fractions. We estimated N persistence along a bio-climatic sequence—sites range from a low-elevation oak savannah, mid-elevation pine-oak/mixed-conifer forest, to a high-elevation subalpine forest—in the southern Sierra Nevada in California. A combination of radiocarbon and elemental composition measurements along with a first-order kinetic model was used. The N concentration in the bulk soil and density fractions declined with depth, and there was a relatively greater mineral-associated heavy fraction (HF) N in deeper samples. The cooler/wetter mixed conifer site held 37% of profile N in saprock, which was greater than that of the entire soil profile at the drier/hotter oak savannah. The majority of N in soil, which was in the HF, was not influenced by climate proxies tested. However, both unprotected and occluded fractions of N were strongly influenced by climate. Soil N mean residence time (MRT) showed that drier/hotter climates have a shorter MRT, compared to mid-elevation sites with cooler/wetter climates. The effect of climate on deep saprock N storage might be indirect, primarily through climatic influence on the thickness of saprock. Overall, our findings suggest the mineral-associated HF N pool will not be vulnerable to changes in climate and will continue to contribute to the persistent soil N pool. The amount of topsoil and subsoil unprotected and occluded N can be explained by gross primary productivity and mean annual precipitation indicating that changes in climate can influence N partitioning. N stored in deep soil and saprock may be less vulnerable to climate than N stored in drier/hotter climates with less deeply stored N. It is critical to dig deeper to understand terrestrial ecosystems’ response to climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Persistence and potential of soil organic carbon in nature‐based climate solutions: A review of managed disturbances

Societal Impact Statement Implementing nature-based climate solutions is important for mitigating climate change, which is a global issue, but requires local adjustments in management practices. Using the association between soil carbon and minerals as a proxy for carbon persistence, we evaluated the effect of different management regimes on soil carbon sequestration and loss. We identified areas where management practices that increase carbon inputs should be prioritized and areas where management should focus on avoiding severe disturbances. Using this storage-potential-and-persistence framework to identify how to increase or maintain soil organic carbon storage locally will increase the effectiveness of nature-based climate solutions globally. Summary Increasing soil organic carbon storage could reduce the pace of climate change, but the longevity of this nature-based climate solution depends on the persistence of carbon in soils, not just the input rates into soils. We apply a framework for considering how soil carbon persistence—namely, via the association with minerals—sheds light on soil carbon sequestration. We review how management of disturbances, such as prescribed burning, forestry, and grazing, can change soil carbon storage, persistence, and potential. Past work demonstrated that management of disturbances can sequester soil carbon, but it remains unclear how the potential stabilization of that accrual and vulnerability to loss varies across disturbance types and geographies. We found that there is substantial geographical heterogeneity in the overlap among estimates of carbon accrual, disturbance occurrence, and potential stabilization: Fire-prone grasslands and intensively grazed rangelands occur in areas estimated to have high potential to store mineral-associated organic carbon, and studies also find that adjusted fire and grazing can promote mineral-associated organic carbon. Plantation forestry and burned area span large regions where particulate organic matter is the dominant form, and studies find that particulate organic carbon is disproportionately lost following intense wildfires and forest harvests. Thus, areas with high mineral-associated organic carbon deficits should be prioritized for practices that increase carbon inputs; whereas areas with high proportions of particulate organic carbon should be prioritized for practices that help to avoid severe disturbances. Taken together, the distribution of and changes in persistence mechanisms shed light on the durability of nature-based climate solutions.

fire↗

DOE OSTI2013

Persistent luminescence in Ba{sub 5}(PO{sub 4}){sub 3}Cl:Eu{sup 2+},R{sup 3+} (R = Y, La, Ce, Gd, Tb and Lu)

Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • The persistent luminescence in Ba{sub 5}(PO{sub 4}){sub 3}Cl:Eu{sup 2+},R{sup 3+} was reported. • The influences of auxiliary codopants was discussed. • The concentration quenching of persistent luminescence was discussed. - Abstract: We investigated the persistent luminescence in europium-doped barium chloroapatite upon codoping with auxiliary rare earth ions. Luminescence properties of the phosphors, including photoluminescence, luminescence decay, and thermoluminescence are systematically studied. We formulated a model of persistent luminescence on the basis of the experimental results. In our model, some Eu{sup 2+} ions are oxidized to Eu{sup 3+} under short UV excitation, and the released electrons are trapped at the positive defect. The persistent luminescence arises from the recombination of these trapped electrons with the photo-ionized Eu{sup 3+} ions. The influence of auxiliary codopants was discussed in terms of ionic potential and ionic radius. Eventually, the concentration quenching of persistent luminescence was reported and discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Microscale spatial distribution and soil organic matter persistence in top and subsoil

The spatial distribution of organic substrates and microscale soil heterogeneity significantly influence organic matter (OM) persistence as constraints on OM accessibility to microorganisms. However, it is unclear how changes in OM spatial heterogeneity driven by factors such as soil depth affect the relative importance of substrate spatial distribution on OM persistence. This work evaluated the decomposition and persistence of 13 C and 15 N labeled water-extractable OM inputs over 50 days as either hotspot (i.e., pelleted in 1–2 mm-size pieces) or distributed (i.e., added as OM < 0.07 μm suspended in water) forms in topsoil (0–0.2 m) and subsoil (0.8–0.9 m) samples of an Andisol. We observed greater persistence of added C in the subsoil with distributed OM inputs relative to hotspot OM, indicated by a 17% reduction in cumulative mineralization of the added C and a 10% higher conversion to mineral-associated OM. A lower substrate availability potentially reduced mineralization due to OM dispersion throughout the soil. NanoSIMS (nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry) analysis identified organo-mineral associations on cross-sectioned aggregate interiors in the subsoil. On the other hand, in the topsoil, we did not observe significant differences in the persistence of OM, suggesting that the large amounts of particulate OM already present in the soil outweighed the influence of added OM spatial distribution. Here, we demonstrated under laboratory conditions that the spatial distribution of fresh OM input alone significantly affected the decomposition and persistence of OM inputs in the subsoil. On the other hand, spatial distribution seems to play a lower role in topsoils rich in particulate OM. The divergence in the influence of OM spatial distribution between the top and subsoil is likely driven by differences in soil mineralogy and OM composition.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) using GHI measurements and a cloud retrieval technique

Short-term solar forecasting models based solely on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measurements are often unable to discriminate the forecasting of the factors affecting GHI from those that can be precisely computed by atmospheric models. Here, we introduce a Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) that decomposes the forecasting of GHI into the computation of extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle and the forecasting of cloud albedo and cloud fraction. The extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle are accurately computed by the Solar Position Algorithm (SPA) developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). A cloud retrieval technique is used to estimate cloud albedo and cloud fraction from surface-based observations of GHI. With the assumption of persistent cloud structures, the cloud albedo and cloud fraction are predicted for future time steps using a two-stream approximation and a 5-min exponential weighted moving average, respectively. Our model evaluation using the long-term observations of GHI at NREL's Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) shows that the PSPI has a better performance than the persistence and smart persistence models in all forecast time horizons between 5 and 60 min, which is more significant in cloudy-sky conditions. Finally, compared to the persistence and smart persistence models, the PSPI does not require additional observations of various atmospheric parameters but is customizable in that additional observations, if available, can be ingested to further improve the GHI forecast. An advanced technology of cloud forecast is also expected to improve the future performance of the PSPI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Persister formation in Staphylococcus aureus is associated with ATP depletion

Persisters are dormant phenotypic variants of bacterial cells that are tolerant to killing by antibiotics1. Persisters are associated with chronic bacterial infection and antibiotic treatment failure. In Escherichia coli, toxin/antitoxin (TA) modules are responsible for persister formation. The mechanism of persister formation in Gram positive bacteria is unknown. Staphylococcus aureus is a major human pathogen, responsible for a variety of chronic and relapsing infections such as osteomyelitis, endocarditis and infections of implanted devices. Deleting TA modules in S. aureus did not affect the level of persisters. Here we show that S. aureus persisters are produced due to a stochastic entrance to stationary phase accompanied by a drop in intracellular ATP. Cells expressing stationary state markers are present throughout the growth phase, increasing in frequency with cell density. Cell sorting revealed that expression of stationary markers was associated with a 100-1000 fold increased likelihood of survival to antibiotic challenge. We find that the antibiotic tolerance of these cells is due to a drop in intracellular ATP. The ATP level of the cell is predictive of bactericidal antibiotic efficacy and explains bacterial tolerance to antibiotic treatment.

Conlon, Brian P. (ORCID:0000000221558375)↗

DOE OSTI2018

Increased mortality in mice following immunoprophylaxis therapy with high dosage of nicotinamide in Burkholderia persistent infections

Bacterial persistence, known as non-inherited antibacterial resistance, is a contributing factor to the establishment of long-lasting chronic bacterial infections. In this study, we examined the ability of nicotinamide (NA) to potentiate different classes of antibiotics against Burkholderia thailandensis persister cells. Here we demonstrate that addition of NA in in vitro models of B. thailandensis infection resulted in a significant depletion of the persister population in response to various classes of antibiotics. We applied microfluidic bioreactors with a continuous media flow to study the effect of supplementation with a NA gradient on the recovery of B. thailandensis persister populations. A co-culture of human neutrophils pre-activated with 50 µM NA and B. thailandensis resulted in the most efficient reduction in the persister population. Applying single cell RNA FISH analysis and quantitative PCR, we found that NA inhibited gene expression of the stringent response regulator relA , implicated in the regulation of the persister metabolic state. In conclusion, we also demonstrate that a therapeutic dose of NA (250mg/kg), previously applied as immunoprophylaxis against antibiotic-resistant bacterial species, produced adverse effects in an in vivo murine infection model of the highly pathogenic Burkholderia pseudomallei , indicating that therapeutic dose and metabolite effects have to be carefully evaluated and tailored for every case of potential clinical application.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Increased Quasi Stationarity and Persistence of Winter Ural Blocking and Eurasian Extreme Cold Events in Response to Arctic Warming. Part I: Insights from Observational Analyses

Abstract Part I of this study examines the relationship among winter cold anomalies over Eurasia, Ural blocking (UB), and the background conditions associated with Arctic warming over the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS) using reanalysis data. It is found that the intensity, persistence, and occurrence region of UB-related Eurasian cold anomalies depend strongly on the strength and vertical shear (VS) of the mean westerly wind (MWW) over mid–high-latitude Eurasia related to BKS warming. Observational analysis reveals that during 1951–2015 UB days are 64% (54%) more frequent during weak MWW (VS) winters, with 26.9 (28.4) days per winter, than during strong MWW (VS) winters. During weak MWW or VS winters, as frequently observed during 2000–15, persistent and large UB-related warming is seen over the BKS together with large and widespread midlatitude Eurasian cold anomalies resulting from increased quasi stationarity and persistence of the UB. By contrast, when the MWW or VS is strong as frequently observed during 1979–99, the cold anomaly is less intense and persistent and confined to a narrow region of Europe because of a rapid westward movement of the strong UB. For this case, the BKS warming is relatively weak and less persistent. The midlatitude cold anomalies are maintained primarily by reduced downward infrared radiation (IR), while the surface heat fluxes, IR, and advection all contribute to the BKS warming. Thus, the large BKS warming since 2000 weakens the meridional temperature gradient, MWW, and VS, which increases quasi stationarity and persistence of the UB (rather than its amplitude) and then leads to more widespread Eurasian cold events and further enhances the BKS warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗