Search NASASearch

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “physics-based”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

Data-Driven Modeling and Correction of Vehicle Dynamics

We develop a data-driven framework for learning and correcting nonautonomous vehicle dynamics. Physics-based vehicle models are often simplified for tractability and therefore exhibit inherent model-form uncertainty, motivating the need for data-driven correction. Moreover, nonautonomous dynamics are governed by time-dependent control inputs, which pose challenges in learning predictive models directly from temporal snapshot data. To address these, we reformulate the vehicle dynamics via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs, yielding a modified system composed ofa sequence of local parametric dynamical systems. Here, we approximate these parametric systems using two complementary approaches. First, we employ the dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space (DRIPS) methodology to construct efficient linear surrogate models, equipped with lifted observable spaces and manifold-based operator interpolation. This enables data-efficient learning of vehicle models whose dynamics admit accurate linear representations in the lifted spaces. Second, for more strongly nonlinear systems, we employ flow map learning (FML), a deep neural network (DNN) approach that approximates the parametric evolution map without requiring special treatment of nonlinearities. We further extend FML with a transfer-learning-based model correction procedure, enabling the correction of misspecified prior models using only a sparse set of high-fidelity or experimental measurements, without assuming a prescribed form for the correction term. Through a suite of numerical experiments on unicycle, simplified bicycle, and slip-based bicycle models, we demonstrate that DRIPS offers robust and highly data-efficient learning of nonautonomous vehicle dynamics, while FML provides expressive nonlinear modeling and effective correction of model-form errors under severe data scarcity.

data-driven modeling

A Nonergodic Ground-Motion Model for the San Francisco Bay Area for Small-Magnitude Earthquakes

ABSTRACT Recently, generative models have become a computationally efficient alternative to physics-based numerical simulations of ground motions. Neural networks can learn from existing ground-motion data to generate unobserved ground-motion data at new source and site locations. A key challenge with generative models is ensuring that predicted ground motions remain within a physically realistic range. For this purpose, we developed an empirical, nonergodic ground-motion model (GMM) for small-magnitude earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area based on about 5000 recordings per component for Mw ≤ 4 earthquakes. The nonergodic GMM predicts spatially varying median source, site, and path effects for both the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) and the Fourier phase derivative (a proxy for duration), as well as the corresponding epistemic uncertainty for each term. For FAS, our model shows above-average source and site effects in the western part of the region and below-average effects in the eastern part, with regional effects exhibiting larger spatial correlation lengths with increasing frequency. For duration, the source term is negligible for small-magnitude earthquakes, and the site term leads to site-specific variations up to 5 s. Path effects for FAS and duration depend on the source–site pair and are extrapolated spatially using recent methods for path-effect modeling. The aleatory variability of the within-site within-path residuals is similar to the variability found in previous studies for other regions. The nonergodic model provides two key contributions: first, median adjustment terms that are transferable to larger magnitude earthquakes, further reducing aleatory variability in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; second, region-specific criteria for validating machine learning-based ground-motion generators to evaluate whether synthetic ground motions exhibit physically realistic source, site, and path effects.

Lacour, Maxime

Rapid Analyses of Sparse Seismoacoustic Data Reveals the Timing and Size of the Accurate Energetic Systems Explosion

On 10 October 2025 an explosion occurred at a facility operated by Accurate Energetic Systems in Humphreys County, Tennessee. The incident resulted in 16 fatalities and created a debris field over several square kilometers. To address remaining questions about explosion timing and size, we collected about 20 seismic and 19 acoustic records of the blast from sensors up to hundreds of kilometers away. We then deployed 10 distinct physics-based, reduced order models (ROMs) that used validated geological structure and atmospheric conditions from the time of the event, along with observations of body- and surface-wave energy, as well as acoustic overpressure and phase duration. Each ROM predicted either timing, yield estimates, or both. We binned these estimates and their uncertainties according to each ROMs’ assumptions about confinement (aboveground, buried fully coupled, and buried partially coupled) and combined these estimates with other forensic data to conclude that the event occurred as a single, aboveground explosion on 10 December 2025 12:47:50.8 ±0.1 s with a yield equivalent to 11.8 [2.3,16.5] tons of Trinitrotoluene. Our estimates align with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives inventory reports of 11–13 tons. This multimethod approach demonstrates the use of remotely observed geophysical data to rapidly aid conventional forensic investigations of accidental explosions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF

Assessing and Enabling Trustworthy Predictions for High-Consequence Decisions

Predictions from physics-based computational models provide critical information to inform high consequence decisions, e.g., engineering design decisions. The ability to assess the reliability of such predictions is therefore critical. However, to date, reliability assessment rely heavily on expert judgment and qualitative arguments. This report details the efforts of LDRD 233072 to develop quantitative methods to assess reliability of model predictions, especially in the context of simplifying assumptions that can impact their reliability.

42 ENGINEERING

Development of Next-Generation Additive Chemistry for Direct Air Capture Sorbents (CRADA Final Report)

Introducing antioxidant additives into amine-based DAC sorbents can extend their lifetime. These sorbents are readily prepared by physically mixing additives with amines, a straightforward approach using commercially available materials. Advancing this strategy requires understanding how additives function under varying conditions, especially humidity. This project aims to reveal how humidity and additive chemistry influence oxidative degradation of PEI-based sorbents, levereging LLNL’s expertise in physics-based computational modeling, and Global Thermostat (GT)’s expertise in materials synthesis, characterization, and degradation kinetics testing, to gain fundamental insights into the chemistries and mechanisms of PEI oxidative degradation, and develop design principles that enhance sorbent durability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Quantitative measurements of dislocations in metals for advancing predictive simulations

LLNL applications require scientists to predict how materials evolve under various thermomechanical conditions. While this is achieved through physics-based simulations, uncertainty in the predictions of mechanical properties remains a serious challenge that limits the predictive capabilities of models because we lack methods to compare predictions of atomic-scale defects (dislocations) with experimental measurements. High energy X-ray diffraction (HEXRD) is the most relevant technique that can provide the necessary statistical information on dislocations. However, this technique is not yet quantitative because we lack a precise understanding of the relationship between X-ray diffraction patterns and the underlying material dislocation content and arrangements. To address this need, we used our novel computational X-ray diffraction method to simulate the effect of dislocations on the diffraction patterns. We compared virtual and experimental diffraction patterns. Results allowed us to clearly establish the relationship between X-ray diffraction patterns and the underlying dislocation structures, proving that it is feasible to quantitatively measure dislocation statistics with HEXRD. This project delivered a method that can provide the missing piece to LLNL’s mechanical property simulations in advanced metals by obtaining experimentally long-needed quantitative dislocation data, which could fully enable predictive capabilities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Cluster Dynamics Simulations of Intra-Granular Fission Gas Bubble Size and Pressure Evolution in UO 2

Fission gases such as xenon (Xe) play a critical role in determining the behavior and response of nuclear fuel. Given that Xe has little solubility in UO 2 , it accumulates and forms bubbles, which significantly impact fuel performance. Intra- and inter-granular bubble nucleation and growth can lead to fuel swelling, and once bubbles interconnect at grain boundaries, fission gas can be released into the plenum. At low temperatures, limited uranium vacancy mobility can restrict swelling, therefore causing the bubbles to become highly pressurized. Consequently, this can induce micro-cracking, promote fission gas release (increasing the likelihood of cladding failure), and even lead to fuel pulverization under accident conditions such as a loss of coolant accident. As bubble evolution is strongly influenced by local temperature and fission rate, markedly different behavior occurs across the radial profile of the fuel pellet. Capturing the mechanisms that underpin bubble evolution is therefore important to predict these behaviors in the fuel. Previous models describing important mechanisms informed by lower length scale simulations have been developed under the NEAMS program. These can describe the evolution of a single bubble type (i.e., single value for radius and pressure) at each position in the pellet, for instance using the Centipede cluster dynamic code. However, in reality, a full distribution in bubble sizes and pressures exists within the microstructure at a given position in the pellet. To address this the cluster dynamics code Xolotl, which can predict Xe and vacancy phase space (i.e., bubble distributions) for intra-granular bubbles, has been used before. Prior work benchmarked the Xolotl code against the Centipede cluster dynamics code to ensure compatibility and to verify that mobile defect properties are adequately transferred between the two codes, along with some physics improvements. In this work, we go further by introducing a physics-based set of improvements that will allow us to accurately predict bubble size distributions and internal bubble pressures under representative UO 2 irradiation conditions. The improvements include (i) coupling bubble-defect reaction energies to a virial equation of state (EOS), (ii) including a bubble surface tension contribution, (iii) incorporating radiation-induced re-solution of Xe and vacancies, (iv) enabling pressure-driven dislocation loop punching through an effective emission of interstitial clusters informed by interstitial loop energetics, (v) accounting for radiation induced athermal diffusion of Xe, and (vi) implementing a Booth-type grain boundary sink representation for all mobile defects and defect clusters. After these modifications, we observe good agreement of Xolotl fission gas bubble size and concentration predictions with legacy experimental measurements. Additionally, it allows the distribution of Xe bubble pressures and radius to also be predicted and compared to data produced through the Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) program. Here, we have done this by running simulations under conditions similar to the AFC post-irradiation examination (PIE) samples irradiated at North Anna 2 light water reactor (LWR). Our results shows excellent agreement with these experimental measurements.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Novel Energy-Efficient Drying Technologies for Food, Pulp and Paper, and other Energy Intensive Manufacturing Industries

The purpose of this project was to develop innovative dryer technologies for the food and pulp & paper industry sectors to reduce their corresponding drying energy by at least 25%. By working on these novel drying technologies and the aid of smart sensors and a physics-based artificial intelligence methodology, the foundation for the next generation energy efficient smart dryers for the food and pulp & paper industry sectors have been developed. The innovative dryer technologies developed are applicable to other energy intensive industries as well.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

PPPL Report on Reduced Modeling of Fusion Alpha Transport in ARC Burning Plasmas

We are reporting on the modeling of fusion alpha particle transport in the planned ARC fusion device being designed by the CFS (Commonwealth Fusion Systems: https://cfs.energy). The ARC tokamak is designed to operate in a burning-plasma regime characterized by a substantial population of fusion-born alpha particles. Alfvén eigenmode (AE) stability is assessed both analytically and numerically, incorporating alpha-particle drive, ion Landau, and radiative damping from thermal species and collisional damping from trapped electrons. Regions of unstable and near-threshold AE activity are mapped across ARC’s operational parameter space. Linear stability analysis with NOVA indicates multiple, often marginally unstable AEs, extending to toroidal mode numbers up to n= 30. The present report focuses on the ARC flat-top operating point prior to the sawtooth event. Alpha-particle transport on timescales exceeding the neoclassical slowing-down time is assessed using the NUBEAM module [1][2] of the TRANSP code [3], employing transport coefficients derived from the RBQ quasilinear modeling (cf. Appendix B). These global simulations identify favorable and unfavorable operating regimes with respect to alpha confinement, pressure redistribution, and overall alpha-heating efficiency. We also evaluate additional transport mechanisms—including neoclassical tearing mode (TM)–induced stochasticity, sawtooth-driven redistribution, and toroidal-field ripple using the kick model (cf. Appendix C) which makes use of the guiding-center code ORBIT, see Section 5. The kick model is integrated into TRANSP to enable self-consistent predictions of alpha-driven current formation and sustainment within the ARC scenario. Sensitivity scans are performed over the mode frequency, rational-surface alignment, island width, mode amplitude, and proximity of the limiter to the plasma. Our study provides an initial, physics-based guidance for machine design, operational planning, and equilibrium control, ensuring adequate alpha confinement and robust self-heating performance in ARC. Our simulations mostly targeted worst case scenarios, e.g. for TMs and sawteeth. Overall, we expect benign effects for the ARC scenario investigated in this work on fusion alpha confinement and losses in the presence of AEs, tearing modes and sawteeth. This report addresses three thrusts identified at the outset. The first thrust focuses on analytic estimates of the parametric dependencies of EP relaxation based on local AE stability simulations (Section 3). The second thrust involves global evaluations of AE stability using the NOVA, RBQ, and NUBEAM codes (Section 4). Finally, we investigate alpha-particle transport driven by low-frequency instabilities associated with sawteeth and tearing modes (Section 5).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Scientific Discovery with Physics-Informed System Identification (Abbreviated Report)

My fellowship research focused on making physics-based simulations faster and more useful through machine learning. Many problems in science and engineering are governed by partial differential equations, but high-fidelity simulations are often too expensive to run repeatedly. I worked on improving Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI), a reduced-order modeling framework that compresses large simulation data sets into a smaller representation and then learns how that representation evolves over time. The motivation was to develop reduced models that remain accurate for more challenging systems, especially when predictions must remain reliable over long time intervals or when the underlying dynamics are more complicated than standard methods can easily handle. I also contributed to related work on Quandary, a high-performance software effort for simulation and control of open quantum systems, before focusing primarily on Latent Space Dynamics Identification methods. The main outcomes of the fellowship were two new algorithms (both of which were published), Rollout-LaSDI and Higher-Order LaSDI, together with supporting work on multi-stage Latent Space Dynamics Identification. Rollout-LaSDI improved long-term prediction by training the model to stay accurate over extended time horizons, and Higher-Order LaSDI broadened the method so it could model systems with higher-order time dynamics. My contributions to multistage Latent Space Dynamics Identification also helped show that its later training stages could be simplified without losing effectiveness, and that this behavior held across different model architectures and training strategies. Taken together, these advances improved the accuracy, flexibility, and practical value of reduced-order modeling tools for computational science.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Automating Detection and Diagnosis of Faults, Failures, and Underperformance in PV Plants

The project developed hybrid physics-based and machine-learning methods for near-real-time detection of balance-of-system faults (e.g., string, combiner, and tracker outages) in utility-scale Photovoltaic plants, achieving over 50% true positive rates with under 10% false positives and significantly reducing engineering setup time. In the extended phase, the scope expanded to plant-level underperformance analysis and industry benchmarking through the SUPER.epri.com platform. SUPER standardizes data processing and performance metrics across more than 9 GWac and 120+ plants, enabling robust comparisons and insights into loss rates, inverter downtime, and capacity degradation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

APOLLO: a facility-scale differentiable virtual accelerator for Fermilab

As the design complexity of modern accelerators grows, there is more interest in using advanced simulations that have fast execution time or yield additional insights like gradients. The FAST/IOTA facility has been working on implementing and experimentally validating an end-to-end digital twin that is both fast and gradient-aware, allowing for rapid prototyping of new software and experiments with minimal beam time costs. Our framework integrates physics and ML codes for linac and ring simulation through a set of generic interfaces between surrogate and physics-based sections. To reproduce device inputs and outputs, system state is exposed as a deterministic discrete event simulator. Because Fermilab is undergoing control system transition, both EPICS and ACNET frontends are supported. Recently, we have begun transitioning to a new community lattice standard, PALS, as well as developing standardized infrastructure for data ingest and normalization to prepare for model calibration during FAST proton injector commissioning. We discuss implementation details as well as challenges, and future plans to extend modelling to main complex proton accelerators like PIPII and Booster.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]

Draft Impacts: Modeling and Lab Validation (CRADA Final Report)

Chimney draft is a significant source of variability in real-world wood heater performance, yet laboratory tests conducted for certification do not capture this variability. Because draft varies with climate, chimney height, and home conditions, a heater that performs well in the lab can perform quite differently when installed in a home. Until now, wood heater manufacturers and installers have lacked the tools needed to anticipate how draft will vary across real installations or to advise on corrective measures when draft is too low or too high. The goal of this project was to develop and validate an open-source draft prediction tool for cordwood heater chimney systems. Over 18 months, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and the Hearth, Patio & Barbecue Association (HPBA) collaborated to build a physics-based, Python tool that predicts how chimney draft evolves during operation, from ignition through steady burning. HPBA convened a stakeholder group of manufacturers and venting experts who provided feedback throughout development. LBNL validated the tool against laboratory measurements from a catalytic and a non-catalytic cordwood heater operated across a range of chimney heights and room-pressure conditions.

42 ENGINEERING

Preliminary Plan to Inform Testing of a Heat Exchanger Test Article

This report presents a preliminary plan to guide the qualification testing of advanced heat exchanger (HX) components for nuclear-to-industrial heat transfer applications. The objective is to establish a defensible, physics-based methodology that integrates computational modeling, targeted experimentation, and in-service inspection considerations to demonstrate component performance and reliability under representative reactor conditions. The analysis identifies Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) and High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) systems as reference configurations in terms of temperature, pressure, and chemical environment. Within these operating envelopes, dominant degradation mechanisms— including creep–fatigue interaction, flow-induced vibration, corrosion, and diffusion-bond deterioration—were evaluated to define test requirements. A comprehensive computationalexperimental framework is proposed to support life prediction and qualification activities. The framework couples high-fidelity structural-mechanics, thermal-hydraulic, and fluid-structure interaction models with accelerated degradation testing to produce a traceable linkage between microstructural evolution, mechanical performance, and remaining useful life (RUL). The approach adheres to established Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) standards (ASME V&V 10/20; NUREG-2152) and incorporates a digital-twin architecture for continuous model refinement through data assimilation. The plan further outlines testing methodologies, including pre-test analyses, test-loop design parameters, and sensor placement strategies that maximize information yield while maintaining mechanistic fidelity. Complementary sections describe in-service inspection (ISI), on-line monitoring (OLM), and structural-health-monitoring (SHM) techniques applicable to compact HX geometries typical of advanced reactors. Collectively, these activities establish the technical foundation for demonstrating 40-60-year equivalent service life of advanced heat exchangers in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Reactor and Integrated Energy Systems programs. The forthcoming phase will execute the defined pre-test analyses, initiate hardware fabrication, and implement the integrated testing campaign to validate the proposed qualification methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Runoff evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for permafrost regions in Alaska

Modeling of hydrological runoff is essential for accurately capturing spatiotemporal feedbacks within the land–atmosphere system, particularly in sensitive regions such as permafrost landscapes. However, substantial uncertainties persist in the terrestrial runoff parameterization schemes used in Earth system and land surface models. This is particularly true in permafrost regions, where landscape heterogeneity is high and reliable observational data are scarce. In this study, we evaluate the performance of runoff parameterization schemes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Our proposed framework leverages simulation results from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), which is a physics-based integrated surface/subsurface hydrologic model that has been successfully evaluated previously in Arctic tundra regions. We used ATS to simulate runoff from 22 representative hillslopes in the Sagavanirktok River basin, located on the North Slope of Alaska, then compared the output with ELM's parameterized representation of total runoff. Results show that (1) ELM's total runoff was the same order of magnitude as the ATS simulations, and both models were similarly variable over time; (2) minor adjustments to coefficients in ELM's runoff parameterization improved the match between the ATS simulation and ELM's parameterized representation of annual and seasonal total runoff; (3) overall, runoff responses in ATS and ELM are more similar in flat hillslope environments compared to steep hillslopes; and (4) shallower active layer thicknesses and higher precipitation simulations resulted in lower correlations between the two models due to greater total runoff. By incorporating the optimized runoff coefficients from the Sagavanirktok River basin into ELM, the simulated total runoff better matched the streamflow observations at a small watershed located on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Our findings revealed important insights into the effectiveness of runoff parameterizations in land surface models and pathways for improving runoff coefficients in typical Arctic regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advancing Concentrating Solar Thermal Modeling Using System Advisor Model (SAM)

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technologies play a critical role in enabling dispatchable power and high-temperature industrial heat applications. Accurate and flexible modeling tools are essential for evaluating system performance, guiding technology research and development, and informing investment decisions. The National Laboratory of the Rockies's System Advisor Model (SAM) is a widely used techno-economic simulation platform for CST systems, providing detailed performance and financial modeling capabilities for multiple CST system configurations. SAM integrates physics-based performance models with financial analysis to simulate the behavior of complex energy systems under realistic operating conditions. For CST technologies (including tower, parabolic trough, and linear Fresnel), SAM enables hourly simulations using site-specific weather data that ensure feasible operating conditions and convergence of mass and energy between core system components (i.e., solar field, receiver, thermal energy storage, and power cycle). These capabilities allow researchers and developers to evaluate annual energy production, capacity factors, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and system dispatch strategies. A key advantage of SAM lies in its flexibility for parametric analysis and large-scale computational studies. Users can vary system design parameters such as heliostat field layout, receiver dimensions, thermal energy storage capacity, power block sizing, and installation cost assumptions to investigate their impact on system performance and financial metrics. When combined with automated scripting through LK, SDKTool, or Python interfaces, SAM enables high-throughput simulation workflows that support sensitivity analysis, technology benchmarking, and optimization studies. These approaches are particularly valuable for next-generation CST concepts, where design spaces are large and system interactions are complex. Another important capability of SAM is its support for dispatch optimization and thermal energy storage modeling, which are central to the value proposition of CST technologies. The ability to simulate integrated storage and flexible power generation allows researchers to explore strategies that maximize grid value, improve capacity utilization, and enhance integration with variable resources such as photovoltaic and wind generation. This poster will present an overview of SAM's thermal system modeling capabilities including concentrating solar. Additionally, we will highlight new feature developments including: 1) implementing Google's OR-Tools optimization platform for faster and more robust dispatch optimization, 2) developing a new power load following controller for modeling behind-the-meter applications, 3) enabling direct modeling of CSP-PV hybrid systems with the inclusion of battery storage, and 4) developing a multi-receiver falling particle Gen3 system model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Ambient and Initial Temperature Effects on Energy Consumption Rate Modeled in FASTSim

Ambient and initial temperatures significantly impact the energy consumption rate (ECR) of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) due to auxiliary loads and the temperature dependence of battery efficiency. This study introduces a streamlined, physics-based thermal modeling approach within the FASTSim tool that bridges the gap between oversimplified constant-load models and computationally expensive high-fidelity simulations. By employing a lumped thermal mass framework, the model captures fundamental energy balances and critical non-linear energy penalties while maintaining the computational efficiency required for expansive sensitivity studies. The simulations evaluated a compact BEV hatchback with a resistive heater over city (UDDS) and highway (HWFET) test cycles. Compared to a 22 degrees Celsius initial and ambient temperature baseline, a -7 degrees Celsius initial/ambient temperature resulted in a 221% increase in the ECR for the city cycle and a 100% increase for the highway cycle. Conversely, a 45 degrees Celsius initial / 40 degrees Celsius ambient temperature resulted in a 40% increase for UDDS and an 18% increase for HWFET. These results demonstrate that while cold conditions impose the most severe energy penalties due to resistive heating, the impact is consistently more pronounced in city driving where auxiliary loads represent a larger proportion of total energy. This lightweight yet robust framework enables researchers to rapidly quantify BEV thermal sensitivity across diverse climates without the need for high-overhead simulation environments.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER) With Envelope Improvements and Advanced Air Sealing

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson, et al. 2022). This document focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP) (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER) With Envelope Improvements. This measure combines a two-stage GHP with envelope improvements as a single package. As this package is a combination of two other measures, this document focused on documenting the results associated with this combination of technologies, with individual measure documents for two-stage GHPs and envelope improvements providing the information on the details of these measures. When the two technologies are combined, envelope improvements can modestly reduce energy consumption by a further 10%-15%, but also reduce the required size of the ground heat exchanger and heat pump by approximately 33% on average across all sites. The cost of installing envelope improvements in these homes is likely to be more than paid for by the reduction in equipment and drilling costs in these buildings for the majority of the stock.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY