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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2006

High Fidelity System Simulation of Multiple Components in Support of the UEET Program

The High Fidelity System Simulation effort has addressed various important objectives to enable additional capability within the NPSS framework. The scope emphasized High Pressure Turbine and High Pressure Compressor components. Initial effort was directed at developing and validating intermediate fidelity NPSS model using PD geometry and extended to high-fidelity NPSS model by overlaying detailed geometry to validate CFD against rig data. Both "feedforward" and feedback" approaches of analysis zooming was employed to enable system simulation capability in NPSS. These approaches have certain benefits and applicability in terms of specific applications "feedback" zooming allows the flow-up of information from high-fidelity analysis to be used to update the NPSS model results by forcing the NPSS solver to converge to high-fidelity analysis predictions. This apporach is effective in improving the accuracy of the NPSS model; however, it can only be used in circumstances where there is a clear physics-based strategy to flow up the high-fidelity analysis results to update the NPSS system model. "Feed-forward" zooming approach is more broadly useful in terms of enabling detailed analysis at early stages of design for a specified set of critical operating points and using these analysis results to drive design decisions early in the development process.

Plybon, Ronald C.↗
NASA NTRS2026

Modeling Large Dust Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.

mineral dust↗
NASA NTRS2011

Distributed Damage Estimation for Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

Model-based prognostics approaches capture system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail. These methods consist of a damage estimation phase, in which the health state of a component is estimated, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine end of life. However, the damage estimation problem is often multi-dimensional and computationally intensive. We propose a model decomposition approach adapted from the diagnosis community, called possible conflicts, in order to both improve the computational efficiency of damage estimation, and formulate a damage estimation approach that is inherently distributed. Local state estimates are combined into a global state estimate from which prediction is performed. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the approach.

Daigle, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2011

Noise of Embedded High Aspect Ratio Nozzles

A family of high aspect ratio nozzles were designed to provide a parametric database of canonical embedded propulsion concepts. Nozzle throat geometries with aspect ratios of 2:1, 4:1, and 8:1 were chosen, all with convergent nozzle areas. The transition from the typical round duct to the rectangular nozzle was designed very carefully to produce a flow at the nozzle exit that was uniform and free from swirl. Once the basic rectangular nozzles were designed, external features common to embedded propulsion systems were added: extended lower lip (a.k.a. bevel, aft deck), differing sidewalls, and chevrons. For the latter detailed Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations were made to predict the thrust performance and to optimize parameters such as bevel length, and chevron penetration and azimuthal curvature. Seventeen of these nozzles were fabricated at a scale providing a 2.13 inch diameter equivalent area throat." ! The seventeen nozzles were tested for far-field noise and a few data were presented here on the effect of aspect ratio, bevel length, and chevron count and penetration. The sound field of the 2:1 aspect ratio rectangular jet was very nearly axisymmetric, but the 4:1 and 8:1 were not, the noise on their minor axes being louder than the major axes. Adding bevel length increased the noise of these nozzles, especially on their minor axes, both toward the long and short sides of the beveled nozzle. Chevrons were only added to the 2:1 rectangular jet. Adding 4 chevrons per wide side produced some decrease at aft angles, but increased the high frequency noise at right angles to the jet flow. This trend increased with increasing chevron penetration. Doubling the number of chevrons while maintaining their penetration decreased these effects. Empirical models of the parametric effect of these nozzles were constructed and quantify the trends stated above." Because it is the objective of the Supersonics Project that future design work be done more by physics-based computations and less by experiments, several codes under development were evaluated against these test cases. Preliminary results show that the RANS-based code JeNo predicts the spectral directivity of the low aspect ratio jets well, but has no capability to predict the non-axisymmetry. An effort to address this limitations, used in the RANS-based code of Leib and Goldstein, overpredicted the impact of aspect ratio. The broadband shock noise code RISN, also limited to axisymmetric assumptions, did a good job of predicting the spectral directivity of underexpanded 2:1 cold jet case but was not as successful on high aspect ratio jets, particularly when they are hot. All results are preliminary because the underlying CFD has not been validated yet. An effort using a Large Eddy Simulation code by Stanford University predicted noise that agreed with experiments to within a few dB.

Bridges, James E.↗
NASA NTRS2000

NCC: A Physics-Based Design and Analysis Tool for Combustion Systems

The National Combustion Code (NCC) is an integrated system of computer codes for physics-based design and analysis of combustion systems. It uses unstructured meshes and runs on parallel computing platforms. The NCC is composed of a set of distinct yet closely related modules. They are: (1) a gaseous flow module solving 3-D Navier-Stokes equations; (2) a turbulence module containing the non-linear k-epsilon models; (3) a chemistry module using either the conventional reduced kinetics approach of solving species equations or the Intrinsic Low Dimensional Manifold (ILDM) kinetics approach of table looking up in conjunction with solving the equations of the progressive variables; (4) a turbulence-chemistry interaction module including the option of solving the joint probability density function (PDF) for species and enthalpy; and (5) a spray module for solving the liquid phase equations. In early 1995, an industry-government team was formed to develop the NCC. In July 1998, the baseline beta version was completed and presented in two NCC sessions at the 34th AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion Conference & Exhibit, July 1998. An overview of this baseline beta version was presented at the NASA HPCCP/CAS Workshop 98, August 1998. Since then, the effort has been focused on the streamlining, validation, and enhancement of the th baseline beta version. The progress is presented in two NCC sessions at the AIAA 38 Aerospace Sciences Meeting & Exhibit, January 2000. At this NASA HPCCP/CAS Workshop 2000, an overview of the NCC papers presented at the AIAA 38 th Aerospace Sciences Meeting & Exhibit is presented, with emphasis on the reduction of analysis time of simulating the (gaseous) reacting flows in full combustors. In addition, results of NCC simulation of a modern turbofan combustor will also be reported.

Liu, Nan-Suey↗
NASA NTRS2003

Foam on Tile Impact Modeling for the Space Shuttle Program

Following the breakup of the Space Shuttle Columbia during reentry a NASA-wide investigation team was formed to examine the probable damage inflicted on Orbiter Thermal Protection System (TPS) elements by impact of External Tank insulating foam projectiles. Our team was to apply rigorous, physics-based analysis techniques to help determine parameters of interest for an experimental test program, utilize validated codes to investigate the full range of impact scenarios, and use analysis derived models to predict aero-thermal-structural responses to entry conditions. We were to operate on a non-interference basis with the j Team, and were to supply significant findings to that team and to the Orbiter Vehicle Engineering Working Group, being responsive to any solicitations for support from these entities. The authors formed a working sub-group within the larger team to apply the Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics code SPHC to the damage estimation problem. Numerical models of the LI-900 TPS tiles and of the BX-250 foam were constructed and used as inputs into the code. Material properties needed to properly model the tiles and foam were obtained from other working sub-groups who performed tests on these items for this purpose. Two- and three- dimensional models of the tiles were constructed, including the glass outer layer, the densified lower layer of LI-900 insulation, the Nomex felt Strain Isolation Pad (SIP) mounting layer, and the underlying aluminum 2024 vehicle skin. A model for the BX-250 foam including porous compression, elastic rebound, and surface erosion was developed. Code results for the tile damage and foam behavior were extensively validated through comparison with the Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) foam-on-tile impact experiments carried out in 1999. These tests involved small projectiles striking individual tiles and small tile arrays. Following code and model validation we simulated impacts of larger ET foam projectiles on the TPS tile systems used on the wings of the orbiter. Tiles used on the Wing Acreage, the Main Landing Gear Door, and the Carrier Panels near the front edge of the wing were modeled. Foam impacts shot for the CAB investigation were modeled, as well as impacts at larger angles, including rapid rotation of the projectile, and with varying foam properties. General results suggest that foam impacts on tiles at about 500 mph could cause appreciable damage if the impact angle is greater than about 20 degrees. Some variations of the foam properties, such as increased brittleness or increased density could increase damage in some cases. Rapid (17 rps) rotation failed to increase the damage for the two cases considered. This does not rule out other cases in which the rotational energy might lead to an increase in tile damage, but suggests that in most cases rotation will not be an important factor. Similar models will be applied for other impacting materials, other velocities, and other geometries as part of the Return to Flight process.

Stellingwerf, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Physics-based approach to haptic display

This paper addresses the implementation of complex multiple degree of freedom virtual environments for haptic display. We suggest that a physics based approach to rigid body simulation is appropriate for hand tool simulation, but that currently available simulation techniques are not sufficient to guarantee successful implementation. We discuss the desirable features of a virtual environment simulation, specifically highlighting the importance of stability guarantees.

Brown, J. Michael↗
NASA NTRS1995

Computer Model Of Fragmentation Of Atomic Nuclei

High Charge and Energy Semiempirical Nuclear Fragmentation Model (HZEFRG1) computer program developed to be computationally efficient, user-friendly, physics-based program for generating data bases on fragmentation of atomic nuclei. Data bases generated used in calculations pertaining to such radiation-transport applications as shielding against radiation in outer space, radiation dosimetry in outer space, cancer therapy in laboratories with beams of heavy ions, and simulation studies for designing detectors for experiments in nuclear physics. Provides cross sections for production of individual elements and isotopes in breakups of high-energy heavy ions by combined nuclear and Coulomb fields of interacting nuclei. Written in ANSI FORTRAN 77.

Wilson, John W.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Intersymbol Interference Investigations Using a 3D Time-Dependent Traveling Wave Tube Model

For the first time, a time-dependent, physics-based computational model has been used to provide a direct description of the effects of the traveling wave tube amplifier (TWTA) on modulated digital signals. The TWT model comprehensively takes into account the effects of frequency dependent AM/AM and AM/PM conversion; gain and phase ripple; drive-induced oscillations; harmonic generation; intermodulation products; and backward waves. Thus, signal integrity can be investigated in the presence of these sources of potential distortion as a function of the physical geometry and operating characteristics of the high power amplifier and the operational digital signal. This method promises superior predictive fidelity compared to methods using TWT models based on swept- amplitude and/or swept-frequency data. First, the TWT model using the three dimensional (3D) electromagnetic code MAFIA is presented. Then, this comprehensive model is used to investigate approximations made in conventional TWT black-box models used in communication system level simulations. To quantitatively demonstrate the effects these approximations have on digital signal performance predictions, including intersymbol interference (ISI), the MAFIA results are compared to the system level analysis tool, Signal Processing Workstation (SPW), using high order modulation schemes including 16 and 64-QAM.

Kory, Carol L.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Higher Order Modulation Intersymbol Interference Caused by Traveling-wave Tube Amplifiers

For the first time, a time-dependent, physics-based computational model has been used to provide a direct description of the effects of the traveling wave tube amplifier (TWTA) on modulated digital signals. The TWT model comprehensively takes into account the effects of frequency dependent AM/AM and AM/PM conversion; gain and phase ripple; drive-induced oscillations; harmonic generation; intermodulation products; and backward waves, Thus, signal integrity can be investigated in the presence of these sources of potential distortion as a function of the physical geometry and operating characteristics of the high power amplifier and the operational digital signal. This method promises superior predictive fidelity compared to methods using TWT models based on swept-amplitude and/or swept-frequency data. First, the TWT model using the three dimensional (3D) electromagnetic code MAFIA is presented. Then, this comprehensive model is used to investigate approximations made in conventional TWT black-box models used in communication system level simulations, To quantitatively demonstrate the effects these approximations have on digital signal performance predictions, including intersymbol interference (ISI), the MAFIA results are compared to the system level analysis tool, Signal Processing, Workstation (SPW), using high order modulation schemes including 16 and 64-QAM.

Kory, Carol L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Microgravity Investigation of Crew Reactions in 0-G (MICRO-G)

There is a need for a human factors, technology-based bioastronautics research effort to develop an integrated system that reduces risk and provides scientific knowledge of astronaut-induced loads and motions during long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS), which will lead to appropriate countermeasures. The primary objectives of the Microgravity Investigation of Crew Reactions in 0-G (MICRO-GI research effort are to quantify astronaut adaptation and movement as well as to model motor strategies for differing gravity environments. The overall goal of this research program is to improve astronaut performance and efficiency through the use of rigorous quantitative dynamic analysis, simulation and experimentation. The MICRO-G research effort provides a modular, kinetic and kinematic capability for the ISS. The collection and evaluation of kinematics (whole-body motion) and dynamics (reacting forces and torques) of astronauts within the ISS will allow for quantification of human motion and performance in weightlessness, gathering fundamental human factors information for design, scientific investigation in the field of dynamics and motor control, technological assessment of microgravity disturbances, and the design of miniaturized, real-time space systems. The proposed research effort builds on a strong foundation of successful microgravity experiments, namely, the EDLS (Enhanced Dynamics Load Sensors) flown aboard the Russian Mir space station (19961998) and the DLS (Dynamic Load Sensors) flown on Space Shuttle Mission STS-62. In addition, previously funded NASA ground-based research into sensor technology development and development of algorithms to produce three-dimensional (3-0) kinematics from video images have come to fruition and these efforts culminate in the proposed collaborative MICRO-G flight experiment. The required technology and hardware capitalize on previous sensor design, fabrication, and testing and can be flight qualified for a fraction of the cost of an initial spaceflight experiment. Four dynamic load sensors/restraints are envisioned for measurement of astronaut forces and torques. Two standard ISS video cameras record typical astronaut operations and prescribed IVA motions for 3-D kinematics. Forces and kinematics are combined for dynamic analysis of astronaut motion, exploiting the results of the detailed dynamic modeling effort for the quantitative verification of astronaut IVA performance, induced-loads, and adaptive control strategies for crewmember whole-body motion in microgravity. This comprehensive effort, provides an enhanced human factors approach based on physics-based modeling to identify adaptive performance during long-duration spaceflight, which is critically important for astronaut training as well as providing a spaceflight database to drive countermeasure design.

Newman, Dava↗
NASA NTRS2005

Physics-Based Spectra of Accretion Disks around Black Holes

The purpose of this grant was to begin the process of deriving the light output of accretion disks around black holes directly from the actual processes that inject heat into the accreting matter, rather than from guessed dependences of heating rate on physical parameters. At JHU, the effort has focussed so far on models of accretion onto "intermediate mass black holes", a possible class of black holes, examples of which may have recently been discovered in nearby galaxies. There, Krolik and his student (Yawei Hui) have computed stellar atmospheres for uniformly-heated disks around this class of black holes. Their models serve two purposes: they are the very first serious attempts to compute the spectrum from accreting black holes in this mass range; and a library of such models can be used later in this program as contrasts for those computed on the basis of real disk dynamics. The output from these local disk calculations has also been successfully coupled to a program that applies the appropriate relativistic transformations and computes photon trajectories in order to predict the spectrum received by observers located at different polar angles. The principal new result of these calculations is the discovery of potentially observable ionization edges of H-like C and O at frequencies near the peak in flux from these objects. Most of the grant money at UCSB was spent on supporting graduate student Shane Davis. In addition. some money was spent on supporting two other students: Ari Socrates (now a Hubble Fellow at Princeton), and Laura Melling. Davis spent the year constructing stellar atmosphere models of accretion disks appropriate for the high/soft (thermal) state of black hole X-ray binaries. As with AGN models published previously by our collaboration with NASA support. our models include a complete general relativistic treatment of both the disk structure and the propagation of photons from the disk to a distant observer. They also include all important continuum opacity sources, including Compton scattering and bound-free opacity from abundant metal species. The principal new result is that bound-free opacity is very significant in altering the continuum spectral shape, resulting for example in quite different "color correction factors" compared to those predicted previously. In addition, the models predict a relationship between luminosity and inner disk temperature that is, for the first time, in accord with that observed. The primary purpose of the grant was to incorporate more realistic accretion disk physics, learned largely from simulations, into such spectral models. The Davis et al. paper includes consideration of a vertical dissipation profile computed from radiation magneto-hydrodynamic simulations of MRI turbulence by N. J. Turner (2004). So long as the disk is effectively thick, such dissipation profiles do not affect the predicted spectrum significantly. (More work needs to be done on these simulations, however.) A potentially more serious issue is that MRI turbulence produces substantial inhomogeneities, as do photon bubble instabilities. These inhomogeneities can affect the spectra by enhancing the effects of absorption opacity over scattering opacity. We have done some preliminary Monte Carlo calculations to explore these effects.

Krolik, Julian H.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Digital Distortion Caused by Traveling- Wave-Tube Amplifiers Simulated

Future NASA missions demand increased data rates in satellite communications for near real-time transmission of large volumes of remote data. Increased data rates necessitate higher order digital modulation schemes and larger system bandwidth, which place stricter requirements on the allowable distortion caused by the high-power amplifier, or the traveling-wave-tube amplifier (TWTA). In particular, intersymbol interference caused by the TWTA becomes a major consideration for accurate data detection at the receiver. Experimentally investigating the effects of the physical TWTA on intersymbol interference would be prohibitively expensive, as it would require manufacturing numerous amplifiers in addition to acquiring the required digital hardware. Thus, an accurate computational model is essential to predict the effects of the TWTA on system-level performance when a communication system is being designed with adequate digital integrity for high data rates. A fully three-dimensional, time-dependent, TWT interaction model has been developed using the electromagnetic particle-in-cell code MAFIA (Solution of Maxwell's equations by the Finite-Integration-Algorithm). It comprehensively takes into account the effects of frequency-dependent AM (amplitude modulation)/AM and AM/PM (phase modulation) conversion, gain and phase ripple due to reflections, drive-induced oscillations, harmonic generation, intermodulation products, and backward waves. This physics-based TWT model can be used to give a direct description of the effects of the nonlinear TWT on the operational signal as a function of the physical device. Users can define arbitrary excitation functions so that higher order modulated digital signals can be used as input and that computations can directly correlate intersymbol interference with TWT parameters. Standard practice involves using communication-system-level software packages, such as SPW, to predict if adequate signal detection will be achieved. These models use a nonlinear, black-box model to represent the TWTA. The models vary in complexity, but most make several assumptions regarding the operation of the high-power amplifier. When the MAFIA TWT interaction model was used, these assumptions were found to be in significant error. In addition, digital signal performance, including intersymbol interference, was compared using direct data input into the MAFIA model and using the system-level analysis tool SPW for several higher order modulation schemes. Results show significant differences in predicted degradation between SPW and MAFIA simulations, demonstrating the significance of the TWTA approximations made in the SPW model on digital signal performance. For example, a comparison of the SPW and MAFIA output constellation diagrams for a 16-ary quadrature amplitude modulation (16-QAM) signal (data shown only for second and fourth quadrants) is shown. The upper-bound degradation was calculated from the corresponding eye diagrams. In comparison to SPW simulations, the MAFIA data resulted in a 3.6-dB larger degradation.

Kory, Carol L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Community Coordinated Modeling Center Support of Science Needs for Integrated Data Environment

Space science models are essential component of integrated data environment. Space science models are indispensable tools to facilitate effective use of wide variety of distributed scientific sources and to place multi-point local measurements into global context. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) hosts a set of state-of-the- art space science models ranging from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The majority of models residing at CCMC are comprehensive computationally intensive physics-based models. To allow the models to be driven by data relevant to particular events, the CCMC developed an online data file generation tool that automatically downloads data from data providers and transforms them to required format. CCMC provides a tailored web-based visualization interface for the model output, as well as the capability to download simulations output in portable standard format with comprehensive metadata and user-friendly model output analysis library of routines that can be called from any C supporting language. CCMC is developing data interpolation tools that enable to present model output in the same format as observations. CCMC invite community comments and suggestions to better address science needs for the integrated data environment.

Kuznetsova, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Risk-Based Approach for Aerothermal/TPS Analysis and Testing

The current status of aerothermal and thermal protection system modeling for civilian entry missions is reviewed. For most such missions, the accuracy of our simulations is limited not by the tools and processes currently employed, but rather by reducible deficiencies in the underlying physical models. Improving the accuracy of and reducing the uncertainties in these models will enable a greater understanding of the system level impacts of a particular thermal protection system and of the system operation and risk over the operational life of the system. A strategic plan will be laid out by which key modeling deficiencies can be identified via mission-specific gap analysis. Once these gaps have been identified, the driving component uncertainties are determined via sensitivity analyses. A Monte-Carlo based methodology is presented for physics-based probabilistic uncertainty analysis of aerothermodynamics and thermal protection system material response modeling. These data are then used to advocate for and plan focused testing aimed at reducing key uncertainties. The results of these tests are used to validate or modify existing physical models. Concurrently, a testing methodology is outlined for thermal protection materials. The proposed approach is based on using the results of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses discussed above to tailor ground testing so as to best identify and quantify system performance and risk drivers. A key component of this testing is understanding the relationship between the test and flight environments. No existing ground test facility can simultaneously replicate all aspects of the flight environment, and therefore good models for traceability to flight are critical to ensure a low risk, high reliability thermal protection system design. Finally, the role of flight testing in the overall thermal protection system development strategy is discussed.

Wright, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Assessment of Microphysical Models in the National Combustion Code (NCC) for Aircraft Particulate Emissions: Particle Loss in Sampling Lines

This paper at first describes the fluid network approach recently implemented into the National Combustion Code (NCC) for the simulation of transport of aerosols (volatile particles and soot) in the particulate sampling systems. This network-based approach complements the other two approaches already in the NCC, namely, the lower-order temporal approach and the CFD-based approach. The accuracy and the computational costs of these three approaches are then investigated in terms of their application to the prediction of particle losses through sample transmission and distribution lines. Their predictive capabilities are assessed by comparing the computed results with the experimental data. The present work will help establish standard methodologies for measuring the size and concentration of particles in high-temperature, high-velocity jet engine exhaust. Furthermore, the present work also represents the first step of a long term effort of validating physics-based tools for the prediction of aircraft particulate emissions.

Wey, Thomas↗
NASA NTRS2010

Microstructure Modeling of Third Generation Disk Alloys

The objective of this program was to model, validate, and predict the precipitation microstructure evolution, using PrecipiCalc (QuesTek Innovations LLC) software, for 3rd generation Ni-based gas turbine disc superalloys during processing and service, with a set of logical and consistent experiments and characterizations. Furthermore, within this program, the originally research-oriented microstructure simulation tool was to be further improved and implemented to be a useful and user-friendly engineering tool. In this report, the key accomplishments achieved during the third year (2009) of the program are summarized. The activities of this year included: Further development of multistep precipitation simulation framework for gamma prime microstructure evolution during heat treatment; Calibration and validation of gamma prime microstructure modeling with supersolvus heat treated LSHR; Modeling of the microstructure evolution of the minor phases, particularly carbides, during isothermal aging, representing the long term microstructure stability during thermal exposure; and the implementation of software tools. During the research and development efforts to extend the precipitation microstructure modeling and prediction capability in this 3-year program, we identified a hurdle, related to slow gamma prime coarsening rate, with no satisfactory scientific explanation currently available. It is desirable to raise this issue to the Ni-based superalloys research community, with hope that in future there will be a mechanistic understanding and physics-based treatment to overcome the hurdle. In the mean time, an empirical correction factor was developed in this modeling effort to capture the experimental observations.

Jou, Herng-Jeng↗
NASA NTRS2011

Multiple Damage Progression Paths in Model-Based Prognostics

Model-based prognostics approaches employ domain knowledge about a system, its components, and how they fail through the use of physics-based models. Component wear is driven by several different degradation phenomena, each resulting in their own damage progression path, overlapping to contribute to the overall degradation of the component. We develop a model-based prognostics methodology using particle filters, in which the problem of characterizing multiple damage progression paths is cast as a joint state-parameter estimation problem. The estimate is represented as a probability distribution, allowing the prediction of end of life and remaining useful life within a probabilistic framework that supports uncertainty management. We also develop a novel variance control mechanism that maintains an uncertainty bound around the hidden parameters to limit the amount of estimation uncertainty and, consequently, reduce prediction uncertainty. We construct a detailed physics-based model of a centrifugal pump, to which we apply our model-based prognostics algorithms. We illustrate the operation of the prognostic solution with a number of simulation-based experiments and demonstrate the performance of the chosen approach when multiple damage mechanisms are active

Daigle, Matthew↗