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At least 73 records · Page 4

Extreme windstorms in the Northeastern USA in the contemporary and future climate

Cold-season windstorms represent an important, and potentially changing, geophysical hazard in the Northeastern United States. Here we employ an integrated research methodology including both a storyline approach, where three intense windstorms from the current climate are subjected to pseudo-global warming (PGW) experiments, and a long-term transient simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. An ensemble of WRF simulations is built for each windstorm using different planetary boundary layer and microphysical parameterizations. The fidelity assessment suggests all ensemble members capture the windstorm evolution in contemporary climate. The configuration with highest fidelity is used in the PGW experiments performed with perturbed temperature fields, constant relative humidity, and deiced Great Lakes. These perturbation simulations indicate some evidence for a reduction of sea level pressure and increases in wind speed over and downwind of the Great Lakes and over the Atlantic Ocean plus an increase in precipitation accumulation but a reduction in snow coverage. These changes are spatially inhomogeneous in terms of magnitude and sign but are consistent with changes in potential vorticity. Alberta Clippers and Colorado Lows dominate the cyclones responsible for historical windstorms and thus are sampled in the PGW simulations. However, the transient simulation suggests an increasing role for tropical cyclones that undergo transition to extratropical cyclones. Furthermore, this reinforces the value of combining information from both PGW perturbation experiments within a storyline context and transient simulations when seeking to quantify the future risk associated with cold-season windstorms under changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗

Gas-phase synthesis of corannulene – a molecular building block of fullerenes

Fullerenes (C 60 , C 70 ) detected in planetary nebulae and carbonaceous chondrites have been implicated to play a key role in the astrochemical evolution of the interstellar medium. However, the formation mechanism of even their simplest molecular building block—the corannulene molecule (C 20 H 10 )—has remained elusive. Here we demonstrate via a combined molecular beams and ab initio investigation that corannulene can be synthesized in the gas phase through the reactions of 7-fluoranthenyl (C 16 H 9 ˙) and benzo[ghi]fluoranthen-5-yl (C 18 H 9 ˙) radicals with acetylene (C 2 H 2 ) mimicking conditions in carbon-rich circumstellar envelopes. This reaction sequence reveals a reaction class in which a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) radical undergoes ring expansion while simultaneously forming an out-of-plane carbon backbone central to 3D nanostructures such as buckybowls and buckyballs. In conclusion, these fundamental reaction mechanisms are critical in facilitating an intimate understanding of the origin and evolution of the molecular universe and, in particular, of carbon in our galaxy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Planetary Boundary-Layer Height (PBLHT) Value-Added Product: Remote-Sensing Retrievals

The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is fundamental to numerous atmospheric processes, including aerosol mixing and transport, cloud evolution, and precipitation formation. A critical parameter in these studies is the PBL height (PBLHT). This vertical depth is essential for characterizing PBL structures in numerical simulations and serves as a primary metric for estimating flux exchanges between the Earth’s surface and the atmosphere. Radiosonde (SONDE) observations provide high-vertical-resolution measurements of temperature and moisture profiles and are widely used to estimate PBLHT (Liu and Liang 2010, Seidel et al. 2010). The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s PBLHT value-added product (VAP) for radiosonde measurements, known as PBLHTSONDE, applies three commonly used methods—the Heffter (1980) method, the Liu and Liang (2010) method, and the bulk Richardson number approach (Seibert et al. 2000)—to derive PBLHT. The PBLHTSONDE VAP operates routinely at ARM observatories and mobile facilities, with data available from the ARM Data Center shortly after sounding observations are collected (Sivaraman et al. 2013). However, radiosonde observations are limited by their low temporal resolution. Most stations launch soundings only twice daily, which constrains the ability to investigate and characterize the temporal evolution of the PBL using radiosonde data alone. The use of continuous remote-sensing observations provides high temporal resolution of PBLHT estimates. These observations include aerosol lidars (Dang et al. 2019, Su et al. 2020), Doppler lidar (DL; Tucker et al. 2009, Krishnamurthy et al. 2021), and water vapor and/or temperature lidars and radiometers (Turner et al. 2014). These observations provide valuable data on the PBL’s thermodynamic properties (e.g., water vapor and/or temperature lidars and radiometers), dynamic properties (e.g., DL), and distribution of tracer substances (e.g., aerosol lidars), all of which can be used to estimate PBLHT. ARM developed PBLHT estimates from the micropulse lidar (MPL; PBLHTMPL), Doppler lidar (PBLHTDL), and combined Raman lidar (RL)/atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) thermodynamic profiles (PBLHTTHERMO). Each estimate captures different physical characteristics of the boundary layer—aerosol tracers, vertical velocity turbulence, and thermodynamic structure—and exhibits distinct strengths and limitations depending on the PBL regime and time of day. In addition, the ARM ceilometer (CEIL) provides three potential PBLHT candidates derived from the vendor's built-in algorithm. Building on these individual retrievals, ARM developed the PBLHTBEML VAP, which combines the four remote-sensing-based estimates with ancillary meteorological variables using the machine learning approach of Zhang et al. (2025) to produce a best-estimate PBLHT at 10-minute resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Influence of 10 Unique Chemical Elements in Shaping the Distribution of Kepler Planets

The chemical abundances of planet-hosting stars offer a glimpse into the composition of planet-forming environments. To further understand this connection, we make the first ever measurement of the correlation between planet occurrence and chemical abundances for ten different elements (C, Mg, Al, Si, S, K, Ca, Mn, Fe, and Ni). Leveraging data from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) and Gaia to derive precise stellar parameters (${\sigma }_{{R}_{\star }}\approx 2.3 \% $, ${\sigma }_{{M}_{\star }}\approx 4.5 \% $) for a sample of 1018 Kepler Objects of Interest, we construct a sample of well-vetted Kepler planets with precisely measured radii (${\sigma }_{{R}_{p}}\approx 3.4 \% $). After controlling for biases in the Kepler detection pipeline and the selection function of the APOGEE survey, we characterize the relationship between planet occurrence and chemical abundance as the number density of nuclei of each element in a star's photosphere raised to a power, β. varies by planet type, but is consistent within our uncertainties across all ten elements. For hot planets (P = 1–10 days), an enhancement in any element of 0.1 dex corresponds to an increased occurrence of ≈20% for super-Earths (Rp = 1–1.9 R⊕) and ≈60% for sub-Neptunes (Rp = 1.9–4 R⊕). Trends are weaker for warm (P = 10–100 days) planets of all sizes and for all elements, with the potential exception of sub-Saturns (Rp = 4–8 R⊕). Finally, we conclude this work with a caution to interpreting trends between planet occurrence and stellar age due to degeneracies caused by Galactic chemical evolution and make predictions for planet occurrence rates in nearby open clusters to facilitate demographics studies of young planetary systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluating the Lagrangian Evolution of Subtropical Low Clouds in GCMs Using Observations: Mean Evolution, Time Scales, and Responses to Predictors

In this work, a Lagrangian framework is developed to show the daily-scale time evolution of low clouds over the eastern subtropical oceans. An identical framework is applied to two general circulation models (GCMs): the CAM5 and UKMET and a set of satellite observations. This approach follows thousands of parcels as they advect downwind in the subtropical trade winds, comparing cloud evolution in time and space. This study tracks cloud cover, in-cloud liquid water path (CLWP), droplet concentration $N_d$, planetary boundary layer (PBL) depth, and rain rate as clouds transition from regions with predominately stratiform clouds to regions containing mostly trade cumulus. The two models generate fewer clouds with greater $N_d$ relative to observations. Models show stronger Lagrangian cloud cover decline and greater PBL deepening when compared with observations. In comparing frequency distributions of cloud variables over time, it is seen that models generate increasing frequencies of nearly clear conditions at the expense of overcast conditions, whereas observations show transitions from overcast to cloud amounts between 50% and 90%. Lagrangian decorrelation time scales ($\mathcal{e}$-folding time $\tau$) of cloud cover and CLWP are between 11 and 19 h for models and observations, although they are a bit shorter for models. A Lagrangian framework applied here resolves and compares the time evolution of cloud systems as they adjust to environmental perturbations in models and observations. Increasing subsidence in the overlying troposphere leads to declining cloud cover, CLWP, PBL depth, and rain rates in models and observations. Modeled cloud responses to other meteorological variables are less consistent with observations, suggesting a need for continuing mechanical improvements in GCMs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Radiation-induced alteration of apatite on the surface of Mars: first in situ observations with SuperCam Raman onboard Perseverance

Abstract Planetary exploration relies considerably on mineral characterization to advance our understanding of the solar system, the planets and their evolution. Thus, we must understand past and present processes that can alter materials exposed on the surface, affecting space mission data. Here, we analyze the first dataset monitoring the evolution of a known mineral target in situ on the Martian surface, brought there as a SuperCam calibration target onboard the Perseverance rover. We used Raman spectroscopy to monitor the crystalline state of a synthetic apatite sample over the first 950 Martian days (sols) of the Mars2020 mission. We note significant variations in the Raman spectra acquired on this target, specifically a decrease in the relative contribution of the Raman signal to the total signal. These observations are consistent with the results of a UV-irradiation test performed in the laboratory under conditions mimicking ambient Martian conditions. We conclude that the observed evolution reflects an alteration of the material, specifically the creation of electronic defects, due to its exposure to the Martian environment and, in particular, UV irradiation. This ongoing process of alteration of the Martian surface needs to be taken into account for mineralogical space mission data analysis.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Exomoons in Systems with a Strong Perturber: Applications to α Cen AB

The presence of a stellar companion can place constraints on occurrence and orbital evolution of satellites orbiting exoplanets, i.e., exomoons. In this work we revise earlier orbital stability limits for retrograde orbits in the case of a three-body system consisting of a star, planet, and satellite. The revised limit reads a{sub sat}{sup crit}≈0.668(1-1.236e{sub p}) for e {sub p} ≤ 0.8 in units of the Hill Radius and represents the lower critical orbit as a function of the planetary eccentricity e {sub p}. A similar formula is determined for exomoons hosted by planets in binary star systems, where e {sub p} is replaced with the components of free and forced eccentricity from secular orbit evolution theory. By exploring the dynamics of putative exomoons in α Centauri AB we find that the outer stability limit can be much less than half the Hill Radius due to oscillations in the planetary orbital eccentricity caused by the gravitational interaction with the binary star. We show, furthermore, how the resulting truncation of the outer stability limit can affect the outward tidal migration and potential observability of exomoons through transit-timing variations (TTVs). Typical TTV (rms) amplitudes induced by exomoons in binary systems are ≲10 minutes and appear more likely for planets orbiting the less massive stellar component.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Multiwavelength Look at the GJ 9827 System: No Evidence of Extended Atmospheres in GJ 9827b and d from HST and CARMENES Data

GJ 9827 is a bright star hosting a planetary system with three transiting planets. As a multiplanet system with planets that sprawl within the boundaries of the radius gap between terrestrial and gaseous planets, GJ 9827 is an optimal target to study the evolution of the atmospheres of close-in planets with a common evolutionary history and their dependence from stellar irradiation. Here we report on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and CARMENES transit observations of GJ 9827 planets b and d. We performed a stellar and ISM characterization from the ultraviolet HST spectra, obtaining fluxes for Lyα and Mg ii of F(Lyα) = (5.42{sub −0.75}{sup +0.96}) × 10{sup −13} erg cm{sup −2} s{sup −1} and F(Mgii) = (5.64 ± 0.24) × 10{sup −14} erg cm{sup −2} s{sup −1}. We also investigated a possible absorption signature in Lyα in the atmosphere of GJ 9827b during a transit event from HST spectra, as well as Hα and He i signature for the atmosphere of GJ 9827b and d from CARMENES spectra. We found no evidence of an extended atmosphere in either of the planets. This result is also supported by our analytical estimations of mass loss based on the measured radiation fields for all three planets of this system, which led to a mass-loss rate of 0.4, 0.3, and 0.1 planetary masses per Gyr for GJ 9827b, c, and d, respectively. These values indicate that the planets could have lost their volatiles quickly in their evolution and probably do not retain an atmosphere at the current stage.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Refining Planetary Boundary Layer Height Retrievals From Micropulse‐Lidar at Multiple ARM Sites Around the World

Abstract Knowledge of the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is crucial for various applications in atmospheric and environmental sciences. Lidar measurements are frequently used to monitor the evolution of the PBLH, providing more frequent observations than traditional radiosonde‐based methods. However, lidar‐derived PBLH estimates have substantial uncertainties, contingent upon the retrieval algorithm used. In addressing this, we applied the Different Thermo‐Dynamic Stabilities (DTDS) algorithm to establish a PBLH data set at five separate Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement sites across the globe. Both the PBLH methodology and the products are subject to rigorous assessments in terms of their uncertainties and constraints, juxtaposing them with other products. The DTDS‐derived product consistently aligns with radiosonde PBLH estimates, with correlation coefficients exceeding 0.77 across all sites. This study delves into a detailed examination of the strengths and limitations of PBLH data sets with respect to both radiosonde‐derived and other lidar‐based estimates of the PBLH by exploring their respective errors and uncertainties. It is found that varying techniques and definitions can lead to diverse PBLH retrievals due to the inherent intricacy and variability of the boundary layer. Our DTDS‐derived PBLH data set outperforms existing products derived from ceilometer data, offering a more precise representation of the PBLH. This extensive data set paves the way for advanced studies and an improved understanding of boundary‐layer dynamics, with valuable applications in weather forecasting, climate modeling, and environmental studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Machine Learns to Predict the Stability of Highly Diverse Multi-planetary Systems

Machine learning has proven to be an invaluable tool for characterizing the stability of planets in simplified planetary systems. In this work, we investigate the performance of a machine learning classifier on tightlypacked systems containing a rich diversity of planets, from Earths to Jupiters. Using information derived from short numerical simulations about a planet’s early orbital evolution and its relationship with the most massive planets in the system, we train a random forest classifier to predict instability with a > 88 percent accuracy. Our classifier relies on relative planet masses and the standard deviation of eccentricity for much of its predictive power. Most misclassified planets lie along a multi-dimensional boundary between stable and unstable planets, indicating that their early orbital evolution is ambiguous. The major reason for misclassification in this work is timescale: because our classifier uses information from only the first 137 years of simulation data, it is blind to late time interactions that cause or prevent instability. Machine learning methods like those utilized in this work provide powerful tools to complement numerical simulations across a wide range of planetary architectures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Seismology on Venus with infrasound observations from balloon and orbit

The study of Venus' evolution is inexorably linked with studying its interior properties, which can be investigated by performing seismic studies on the planet. However, seismology on Venus has long eluded planetary scientists due to technological challenges presented by high surface temperature and pressure, which limit lifetimes of surface-based instrumentation. In this white paper, we present two complementary techniques for performing seismology on Venus by measuring the low-frequency acoustic signature (infrasound) produced by seismic activity through coupling between the solid planet and the atmosphere. These techniques may be implemented with technology available today, without the use of high-temperature electronics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Direct Simulations of H–He Mixtures at Planetary Interior Conditions: Demixing, Insulator–Metal Transition and Miscibility Boundaries

Accurate knowledge of the electrical and thermal conductivities and structural properties of hydrogen–helium mixtures under thermodynamic conditions within and beyond the immiscibility range is very important to predict the thermal evolution and internal structure of gas giant planets like Jupiter and Saturn. Here, we propose a novel method to determine the immiscibility boundary accurately without the need for free energy calculations, while providing consistent insights into structural and transport properties of mixtures. We show with direct large-scale ab initio simulations that the insulator–metal transition (IMT) of the hydrogen subsystem is strongly affected by an admixture with a small fraction of helium and occurs at temperatures significantly higher than those of pure hydrogen. At pressures below 150 GPa, the IMT boundary is not related anymore to the H 2 subsystem dissociation, the system remains insulating even after the full dissociation of H 2 molecules and its transition to an H–He mixture. The offset of the IMT in the H–He mixture relative to the dissociation region in the hydrogen subsystem and the significant reduction of static electrical and thermal conductivity by a factor between two and a few thousand relative to pure hydrogen found in mixtures have consequences for Jupiter and Saturn’s thermal evolution, internal structure, and dynamo action, affecting a large fraction of the interior of both planets.

Helium↗

A Statistical Search for Star–Planet Interaction in the Ultraviolet Using GALEX

Most (∼82%) of the over 4000 confirmed exoplanets known today orbit very close to their host stars, within 0.5 au. Planets at such small orbital distances can result in significant interactions with their host stars, which can induce increased activity levels in them. In this work, we have searched for statistical evidence for star–planet interactions in the ultraviolet (UV) using the largest sample of 1355 Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) detected host stars with confirmed exoplanets and making use of the improved host-star parameters from Gaia DR2. From our analysis, we do not find any significant correlation between the UV activity of the host stars and their planetary properties. We further compared the UV properties of planet host stars to that of chromospherically active stars from the RAdial Velocity Experiment (RAVE) survey. Our results indicate that the enhancement in chromospheric activity of host stars due to star–planet interactions may not be significant enough to reflect in their near- and far-UV broadband flux.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Influence of Dust-Smoke Mixtures on Boundary Layer Processes and Nocturnal Warming in the Sahel

Using a single column model with ground-based, aircraft, and satellite data sets we assess the combined role of smoke and dust aerosols, land degradation/aridization (LDA), and their impact on the planetary boundary layer (PBL) in influencing near-surface air temperature over the Sahel. Our study is unique because it assesses the combined role of smoke and dust aerosols on PBL evolution and near-surface air temperatures during both day and nighttime. More importantly, using a theoretical framework, we provide a careful explanation of the geophysical processes responsible for the changes in PBL and near-surface air temperature. Our results indicate that during northern hemisphere winter months, dust, and smoke over Sahel radiatively combine to impact the PBL. We show that aerosol mixtures dominated by dust modify PBL height in a manner that minimizes/maximizes surface layer cooling/warming at times when daytime maximum/nocturnal minimum temperatures occur. Furthermore, we find that increasing smoke contribution to total column aerosol optical extinction counteracts nighttime warming through daytime cooling. When smoke constitutes half or more of to the total column aerosol optical extinction, the ratio of longwave to shortwave radiative forcing is less than 10%, and nighttime cooling ensues. Minimum temperature is most sensitive to changes in mid-visible aerosol optical depth (AOD) values <1 and doubling of dust AOD within this range during the 1950–1980 Sahelian LDA event is estimated to have a nocturnal warming potential of 0.6°C.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Non-traditional stable isotope measurements using laser desorption Orbitrap mass spectrometry: Implications for planetary missions.

Isotopic fractionation recorded in planetary materials provides insights into physical, chemical, and/or potential biological processes occurring on Solar System bodies. As we enter into the next decades of planetary exploration, the crucial information revealed by isotopic compositions of rocky and icy samples mandates that next generation spaceflight instrumentation possess the capability to measure isotope ratios in situ with sufficient precision/accuracy to distinguish between such processes. Here, in addition to identifying and fingerprinting complex organic materials with high accuracy and ultrahigh mass resolutions, laser desorption Orbitrap™ mass spectrometry (LD-O-MS) has the capability to determine the elemental and isotopic composition of solid planetary materials such as rock, regolith, organics, ice, etc. Here, we use a space-qualified LD-O-MS instrument comprising a 266 nm ultraviolet (UV) laser and Orbitrap mass analyzer ruggedized for planetary applications to investigate the stable isotopic composition of Ti and Zn metal plates. Based on the isotopic analyses, we constrain the performance of the CORALS instrument to sub per mille (‰) level accuracy and precision for Ti and at the per mille (‰) level for Zn. An LD-O-MS instrument is a versatile instrument capable of measuring isotopic composition of a variety of planetary samples and would constitute a critical instrument in the exploration of various planetary bodies including but not limited to Moon, Mars, Enceladus and other ocean or icy worlds, Ceres and other asteroids, and comets, thereby answering several high-priority questions pertaining to the formation and evolution of our Solar System.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Framework for idealized climate simulations with spatiotemporal stochastic clouds and planetary-scale circulations

In climate predictions, clouds are the leading source of uncertainty. This is partly because, to simulate the fluid dynamics of climate over the entire globe, a large grid spacing must be used, so clouds are a subgrid-scale parametrization rather than a resolved feature. Here, a framework is investigated with finer grid spacing of O(1) or O(10)km so that some clouds are not subgrid-scale; instead, clouds evolve on the numerical grid. This cloud evolution is achieved using stochastic modeling. Hence, the framework is idealized in the sense that the full fluid dynamics of cloud circulations is still not resolved, and simplified vertical structures are used. Nevertheless, the fluid dynamics model includes evolving clouds that interactively adjust in size, shape, lifetime, and regional coverage. In addition, different cloud types are included with different roles in the climate system, including deep convective clouds and also boundary-layer clouds such as shallow cumulus and stratocumulus clouds. Other basic aspects of the idealized climate system are planetary-scale circulations (e.g., Walker circulation) and radiation. With these ingredients (evolving clouds, planetary-scale circulations, and radiation), the framework has the potential for idealized investigations of climate change with interactive cloud–radiative feedback of individual clouds. Here, the formulation of the model equations is presented, and numerical simulations are shown to illustrate the model dynamics and climate change.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Solitary Magnetic Structures Developed From Gyro-Resonance With Solar Wind Ions at Mars and Earth

We investigate solitary magnetic structures in the foreshock of Mars and Earth. The structures exhibit pulse-like magnetic field and density enhancements along with plasma heating and local solar wind (SW) ion reflection. The structures at Mars resemble the foreshock structures developed from ultra-low-frequency electromagnetic waves gyro-resonant with SW ions at Earth, and propagate toward the magnetosphere. We perform fully kinetic simulations to reproduce the solitary structures and the nonlinear evolution of ion distribution functions, illustrating their resonance with SW ions. The structures present self-induced foreshock turbulence that can have space weather effects. Our results advance the fundamental understanding of how SW interacts with planetary magnetospheres, and have potential impact on the current picture of planet-origin ion escape.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗