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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Transmission history of SARS-CoV-2 in humans and white-tailed deer

The emergence of a novel pathogen in a susceptible population can cause rapid spread of infection. High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) has been reported in multiple locations, likely resulting from several human-to-deer spillover events followed by deer-to-deer transmission. Knowledge of the risk and direction of SARS-CoV-2 transmission between humans and potential reservoir hosts is essential for effective disease control and prioritisation of interventions. Using genomic data, we reconstruct the transmission history of SARS-CoV-2 in humans and deer, estimate the case finding rate and attempt to infer relative rates of transmission between species. We found no evidence of direct or indirect transmission from deer to human. However, with an estimated case finding rate of only 4.2%, spillback to humans cannot be ruled out. The extensive transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within deer populations and the large number of unsampled cases highlights the need for active surveillance at the human–animal interface.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1985

Low altitude, one centimeter, space debris search at Lincoln Laboratory's (M.I.T.) experimental test system

The majority of work performed by the Lincoln Laboratory's Space Surveillance Group, at the request of NASA, to define the near-earth population of man-made debris is summarized. Electrooptical devices, each with a 1.2 deg FOV, were employed at the GEODSS facility in New Mexico. Details of the equipment calibration and alignment procedures are discussed, together with implementation of a synchronized time code for computer controlled videotaping of the imagery. Parallax and angular speed data served as bases for distinguishing between man-made debris and meteoroids. The best visibility was obtained in dawn and dusk twilight conditions at elevation ranges of 300-2000 km. Tables are provided of altitudinal density distribution of debris. It is noted that the program also yielded an extensive data base on meteoroid rates.

Taff, L. G.↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Assessment of the Current LEO Debris Environment and the Need for Active Debris Removal

The anti-satellite test on the Fengun-1 C weather satellite in early 2007 and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 dramatically altered the landscape of the human-made orbital debris environment in the low Earth orbit (LEO). The two events generated approximately 5500 fragments large enough to be tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network. Those fragments account for more than 60% increase to the debris population in LEO. However, even before the ASAT test, model analyses already indicated that the debris population (for those larger than 10 cm) in LEO had reached a point where the population would continue to increase, due to collisions among existing objects, even without any future launches. The conclusion implies that as satellites continue to be launched and unexpected breakup events continue to occur, commonly-adopted mitigation measures will not be able to stop the collision-driven population growth. To remediate the debris environment in LEO, active debris removal must be considered. This presentation will provide an updated assessment of the debris environment after the Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 collision, an analysis of several future environment projections based on different scenarios, and a projection of collision activities in LEO in the near future. The need to use active debris removal to stabilize future debris environment will be demonstrated and the effectiveness of various active debris removal strategies will be quantified.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗
NASA NTRS2001

Activities on Space Debris in U.S.

In the U.S. space debris activities are addressed at all government levels, from the Executive Office of the President to the individual federal agencies to specialized centers, laboratories, organizations, and research groups. U.S. Space Policy specifically challenges government agencies to seek to minimize the creation of space debris and to promote debris minimization practices both domestically and internationally. A set of space debris mitigation standard practices has been developed and adopted by relevant US government agencies, and their application by the commercial aerospace community is highly encouraged. A growing number of US government agencies have issued their own space debris mitigation policies, directives, regulations, and standards. Space debris research, including the definition and modeling of the current and future near-Earth space environment and the development of debris protection technologies, is principally conducted by NASA and the Department of Defense. The U.S. Space Surveillance Network continues to provide the most complete and timely characterization of the population of space debris larger than 10 cm. During the past several years major advancements have been achieved in extending this environment definition in LEO to include particles as small as only a few millimeters. The inspection of returned spacecraft surfaces continues to shed light on the even smaller debris population. With improvements in computer technology, new and more capable programs have been and are being developed to solve a number of operational and research problems. Finally, the academic and industrial sectors of the U.S. are also increasing their participation in and contributions to space debris operations and research. The cooperation of satellite and launch vehicle developers and operators is essential to the U.S. objective of promoting the preservation of the space environment for future generations.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

GEO Population Estimates using Optical Survey Data

Optical survey data taken using the NASA Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) gives us an opportunity to statistically sample faint object population in the Geosynchronous (GEO) and near-GEO environment. This paper will summarize the MODEST survey work that has been conducted by NASA since 2002, and will outline the techniques employed to arrive at the current population estimates in the GEO environment for dim objects difficult to detect and track using current systems in the Space Surveillance Network (SSN). Some types of orbits have a higher detection rate based on what parts of the GEO belt is being observed, a straightforward statistical technique is used to debias these observations to arrive at an estimate of the total population potentially visible to the telescope. The size and magnitude distributions of these fainter debris objects are markedly different from the catalogued population. GEO debris consists of at least two different populations, one which follows the standard breakup power law and one which has anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (1 to approx. 30 square meters per kilogram; a sheet of paper = approx. 13 square meters per kilogram). The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) is investigating objects in GEO orbits with anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (AMRs). The ESA Space Debris Telescope discovered this population and has and its properties of inclinations (0 to 30 degrees), changing eccentricities (0 and 0.6), and mean motions (approx. 1 rev), will be presented. The accepted interpretation of this orbital behavior is that solar radiation pressure drives the perturbations causing time varying inclinations and eccentricities. The orbital parameters are unstable for this population and thus difficult to predict. Their dim visual magnitudes and photometric variability make observations a challenge. The IADC has enlisted a series of observatories (participating institutions: University of Michigan/CTIO, Astronomical Institute University of Bern, Boeing LTS / AMOS, Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics) at different longitudes. Complete observational coverage over periods of days to months will provide a better understanding of the properties, such as solar radiation pressure effects on orbital elements, size, shape, attitude, color variations, and spectral characteristics. Results from recent observational programs will be summarized, and includes a description of the orbit elements prediction processes, a summary of the metric tracking performance, and some photometric characteristics of this class of debris.

Barker, Edwin S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Age-specific case data reveal varying dengue transmission intensity in US states and territories

Dengue viruses (DENV) are endemic in the US territories of Puerto Rico, American Samoa, and the US Virgin Islands, with focal outbreaks also reported in the states of Florida and Hawaii. However, little is known about the intensity of dengue virus transmission over time and how dengue viruses have shaped the level of immunity in these populations, despite the importance of understanding how and why levels of immunity against dengue may change over time. These changes need to be considered when responding to future outbreaks and enacting dengue management strategies, such as guiding vaccine deployment. We used catalytic models fitted to case surveillance data stratified by age from the ArboNET national arboviral surveillance system to reconstruct the history of recent dengue virus transmission in Puerto Rico, American Samoa, US Virgin Islands, Florida, Hawaii, and Guam. We estimated average annual transmission intensity (i.e., force of infection) of DENV between 2010 and 2019 and the level of seroprevalence by age group in each population. We compared models and found that assuming all reported cases are secondary infections generally fit the surveillance data better than assuming all cases are primary infections. Using the secondary case model, we found that force of infection was highly heterogeneous between jurisdictions and over time within jurisdictions, ranging from 0.00008 (95% CrI: 0.00002–0.0004) in Florida to 0.08 (95% CrI: 0.044–0.14) in American Samoa during the 2010–2019 period. For early 2020, we estimated that seropositivity in 10 year-olds ranged from 0.09% (0.02%–0.54%) in Florida to 56.3% (43.7%–69.3%) in American Samoa. In the absence of serological data, age-specific case notification data collected through routine surveillance combined with mathematical modeling are powerful tools to monitor arbovirus circulation, estimate the level of population immunity, and design dengue management strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predictive Risk Mapping of Schistosomiasis in Madagascar Using Ecological Niche Modeling and Precision Mapping

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) found throughout tropical and subtropical Africa. In Madagascar, the condition is widespread and endemic in 74% of all administrative districts in the country. Despite the significant burden of the disease, high-resolution risk maps have yet to be produced to guide national control programs. This study used an ecological niche modeling (ENM) and precision mapping approach to estimate environmental suitability and disease transmission risk. The results show that suitability for schistosomiasis is widespread and covers 264,781 km 2 (102,232 sq miles). Covariates of significance to the model were the accessibility to cities, distance to water, enhanced vegetation index (EVI), annual mean temperature, land surface temperature (LST), clay content, and annual precipitation. Disease transmission risk is greatest in the central highlands, tropical east coast, arid-southwest, and northwest. An estimated 14.9 million people could be at risk of schistosomiasis; 11.4 million reside in rural areas, while 3.5 million are in urban areas. This study provides valuable insight into the geography of schistosomiasis in Madagascar and its potential risk to human populations. Because of the focal nature of the disease, these maps can inform national surveillance programs while improving understanding of areas in need of medical interventions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

In-Time UAV Flight-Trajectory Estimation and Tracking Using Bayesian Filters

Rapid increase of UAV operation in the next decade in areas of on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement, traffic surveillance and several others pose potential risks to the low altitude airspace above densely populated areas. Safety assessment of airspace demands the need for a novel UAV traffic management (UTM) framework for regulation and tracking of the vehicles. Particularly for low-altitude UAV operations, quality of GPS measurements feeding into the UAV is often compromised by loss of communication link caused by presence of trees or tall buildings in proximity to the UAV flight path. Inaccurate GPS locations may yield to unreliable monitoring and inaccurate prognosis of remaining battery life and other safety metrics which rely on future expected trajectory of the UAV. This work therefore proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology for autonomous UAVs using in-time GPS measurements. Firstly, a typical 4D smooth trajectory generation technique from a series of waypoint locations with associated expected times-of-arrival based on B-spline curves is presented. Initial uncertainty in the vehicle's expected cruise velocity is quantified to compute confidence intervals along the entire flight trajectory using error interval propagation approach. Further, the generated planned trajectory is considered as the prior knowledge which is updated during its flight with incoming GPS measurements in order to estimate its current location and corresponding kinematic profiles. Estimation of position is denoted in dicrete state-space representation such that position at a future time step is derived from position and velocity at current time step and expected velocity at the future time step. A linear Bayesian filtering algorithm is employed to efficiently refine position estimation from noisy GPS measurements and update the confidence intervals. Further, a dynamic re-planning strategy is implemented to incorporate unexpected detour or delay scenarios. Finally, critical challenges related to uncertainty quantification in trajectory prognosis for autonomous vehicles are identified, and potential solutions are discussed at the end of the paper. The entire monitoring framework is demonstrated on real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center.

Banerjee, Portia↗
DOE OSTI2021

Agent-based Disease Surveillance and Transmission Model

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has driven a need for models that can predict transmission among populations and test the effectiveness of proposed interventions to control it such as testing, quarantining, vaccinations, and nonpharmaceutical interventions. Some questions of interest include:1. How rapidly will the virus spread if no action is taken? 2. How frequently should people be tested and quarantined if necessary? 3. Should unvaccinated persons be tested more frequently than the vaccinated? 4. If test results are delayed, how will that affect the spread? 5. How do test false negative rates affect the overall efficacy of testing programs? 6. How do constraints on testing resources impact the overall efficacy of testing programs? 7. How does the patient’s failure to recognize COVID symptoms and quarantine affect the spread? 8. What level of vaccination coverage is needed to suppress the epidemic? 9. What is the risk of a large outbreak (probability exceeding x infections)? 10. What is the cost effectiveness of interventions (dollars per avoided infection)? This report describes the structure of a discrete event simulation model that provides actionable information to address these questions. Parameter inputs and results of analyses have been reported in briefings provided to LLNL management and are not discussed here.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

SARS-CoV-2 raw wastewater surveillance from student residences on an urban university campus

The COVID-19 pandemic brought about an urgent need to monitor the community prevalence of infection and detect the presence of SARS-CoV-2. Testing individual people is the most reliable method to measure the spread of the virus in any given community, but it is also the most expensive and time-consuming. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been used since the 1960s when scientists implemented monitoring to measure the effectiveness of the Polio vaccine. Since then, WBE has been used to monitor populations for various pathogens, drugs, and pollutants. In August 2020, the University of Tennessee-Knoxville implemented a SARS-CoV-2 surveillance program that began with raw wastewater surveillance of the student residence buildings on campus, the results of which were shared with another lab group on campus that oversaw the pooled saliva testing of students. Sample collection began at 8 am, and the final RT-qPCR results were obtained by midnight. The previous day’s results were presented to the campus administrators and the Student Health Center at 8 am the following morning. The buildings surveyed included all campus dormitories, fraternities, and sororities, 46 buildings in all representing an on-campus community of over 8,000 students. The WBE surveillance relied upon early morning “grab” samples and 24-h composite sampling. Because we only had three Hach AS950 Portable Peristaltic Sampler units, we reserved 24-h composite sampling for the dormitories with the highest population of students. Samples were pasteurized, and heavy sediment was centrifuged and filtered out, followed by a virus concentration step before RNA extraction. Each sample was tested by RT-qPCR for the presence of SARS-CoV-2, using the CDC primers for N Capsid targets N1 and N3. The subsequent pooled saliva tests from sections of each building allowed lower costs and minimized the total number of individual verification tests that needed to be analyzed by the Student Health Center. Our WBE results matched the trend of the on-campus cases reported by the student health center. The highest concentration of genomic copies detected in one sample was 5.06 × 10 7 copies/L. Raw wastewater-based epidemiology is an efficient, economical, fast, and non-invasive method to monitor a large community for a single pathogen or multiple pathogen targets.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

Transformations in Air Transportation Systems For the 21st Century

Globally, our transportation systems face increasingly discomforting realities: certain of the legacy air and ground infrastructures of the 20th century will not satisfy our 21st century mobility needs. The consequence of inaction is diminished quality of life and economic opportunity for those nations unable to transform from the 20th to 21st century systems. Clearly, new thinking is required regarding business models that cater to consumers value of time, airspace architectures that enable those new business models, and technology strategies for innovating at the system-of-networks level. This lecture proposes a structured way of thinking about transformation from the legacy systems of the 20th century toward new systems for the 21st century. The comparison and contrast between the legacy systems of the 20th century and the transformed systems of the 21st century provides insights into the structure of transformation of air transportation. Where the legacy systems tend to be analog (versus digital), centralized (versus distributed), and scheduled (versus on-demand) for example, transformed 21st century systems become capable of scalability through technological, business, and policy innovations. Where air mobility in our legacy systems of the 20th century brought economic opportunity and quality of life to large service markets, transformed air mobility of the 21st century becomes more equitable available to ever-thinner and widely distributed populations. Several technological developments in the traditional aircraft disciplines as well as in communication, navigation, surveillance and information systems create new foundations for 21st thinking about air transportation. One of the technological developments of importance arises from complexity science and modern network theory. Scale-free (i.e., scalable) networks represent a promising concept space for modeling airspace system architectures, and for assessing network performance in terms of robustness, resilience, and other metrics. The lecture offers an air transportation system topology and a scale-free network linkage graphic as framework for transportation system innovation. Successful outcomes of innovation in air transportation could lay the foundations for new paradigms for aircraft and their operating capabilities, air transportation system topologies, and airspace architectures and procedural concepts. These new paradigms could support scalable alternatives for the expansion of future air mobility to more consumers in more parts of the world.

Holmes, Bruce J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Updated GEO Population for ORDEM 3.1

The limited availability of data for satellite fragmentations and debris in the geosynchronous orbit (GEO) region creates challenges to building accurate models for the orbital debris environment at such altitudes. Updated methods to properly incorporate and extrapolate measurement data have become a cornerstone of the GEO component in the newest version of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM), ORDEM 3.1. For the GEO region, the Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog provides coverage down to a limit of approximately 1 m. A more statistically complete representation of the GEO population for smaller objects, which can pose a high risk to operational spacecraft, is thus dependent on dedicated observations by instruments optimized to observe debris smaller than the SSN cataloging threshold. For ORDEM 3.1, optical data from the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST) provided the input for building the GEO population down to approximately 30 cm (converting absolute magnitude to size). For smaller sizes, the size distribution of debris in the MODEST dataset was extrapolated down to 10 cm, and orbital parameters were estimated based on the orbits of the larger objects. When compared to previous versions of the model, significant improvements were made to the process of building the GEO population in ORDEM 3.1, both in the assessment of fragmentation debris in the data and assignment of orbital elements within the model. A so-called “debris ring filter,” based on a range of angles between an orbit’s angular momentum vector and that of the stable Laplace plane, was applied to the data to reduce biases from non- GEO objects, such as objects in a GEO-transfer orbit. In addition, a new approach was implemented to assign noncircular mean motions and eccentricities to the fragmentation debris observed by MODEST because the short observation window (5 min) in GEO limits orbit resolution to a circular orbit assumption for assigning orbital parameters. For ORDEM 3.1, non-circular orbital elements were assigned using relationships that were identified between mean motion and the angle between the orbit plane and the stable Laplace plane, as well as between mean motion and eccentricity, based on breakup clouds modeled by the NASA Standard Breakup Model. This approach has yielded a high-fidelity GEO model that has been validated with data from more recent MODEST observation campaigns.

Manis, A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Utility of MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth for Estimating PM2.5 Exposure in Environmental Public Health Surveillance

As part of the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN) the National Center for Environmental Health (NCEH) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is leading a project called Health and Environment Linked for Information Exchange (HELIX-Atlanta). The goal of developing the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network is to improve the health of communities. Currently, few systems exist at the state or national level to concurrently track many of the exposures and health effects that might be associated with environmental hazards. An additional challenge is estimating exposure to environmental hazards such as particulate matter whose aerodynamic diameter is less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (PM(2.5)) HELIX-Atlanta's goal is to examine the feasibility of building an integrated electronic health and environmental data network in five counties of Metropolitan Atlanta, GA (Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett counties). Under HELIX-Atlanta, pilot projects are being conducted to develop methods to characterize exposure; link health and environmental data; analyze the relationship between health and environmental factors; and communicate findings. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA/MSFC) is collaborating with CDC to combine NASA earth science satellite observations related to air quality and environmental monitoring data to model surface estimates of PM(2.5) concentrations that can be linked with clinic visits for asthma. From 1999-2000 there were over 9,400 hospitalizations per year in Georgia with asthma as the primary diagnosis. The majority of these hospitalizations occurred in medical facilities in the five most populous Metro-Atlanta counties. Hospital charges resulting from asthma in Georgia are approximately $59 million dollars annually. There is evidence in the research literature that asthmatic persons are at increased risk of developing asthma exacerbations with exposure to environmental factors, including PM(2.5). Thus, HELIX-Atlanta is focusing on methods for characterizing population exposure to PM(2.5) for the Atlanta metropolitan area that could be used in on-going surveillance. While use of the Air Quality System, (AQS) PM(2.5) data alone could meet HELIX Atlanta, specifications, there are only five AQS sites in the Atlanta area, thus the spatial coverage is not ideal. Also, the AQS ground observations are made at time intervals ranging from one hour to six days leaving some temporal gaps. NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data have the potential for estimating daily ground level PM(2.5) at 10 km resolution over the metropolitan Atlanta area supplementing the AQS ground observations and filling their spatial and temporal gaps.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗
DOE OSTI2024

Population-level incidence of human papillomavirus–positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers, by smoking status

Abstract We estimated the population-level incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)–positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers by smoking status. We combined HPV DNA genotyping data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Cancer Registry Sentinel Surveillance System with data from the Kentucky Cancer Registry and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System across smoking status. During 2004-2005 and 2014-2015 in Kentucky, most cases of oropharyngeal (63.3%), anal (59.7%), and cervical (54.9%) cancer were among individuals who ever smoked. The population-level incidence rate was higher among individuals who ever smoked than among those who never smoked for HPV-positive oropharyngeal (7.8 vs 2.1; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.6), cervical (13.7 vs 6.8; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.0), and anal (3.9 vs 1.6; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.5) cancers. These findings indicate that smoking is associated with increased risk of HPV-positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers, and the population-level burden of these cancers is higher among individuals who ever smoked.

Oncology↗
NASA NTRS2006

NASA's Program to Monitor Orbital Debris in the GEO Belt and the General Problem of Measuring Near-Earth Object Orbits: Similarities and Differences

One of the goals for NASA s Orbital Debris Program Office has been to accurately characterize the population of debris in the geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) environment. Most objects larger than about 1 meter in size are regularly tracked and catalogued by the US Space Surveillance System in the GEO regime. The consequence has been that most large intact GEO objects are tracked, but the vast majority of GEO debris fragments are not. Only in recent years have observations been dedicated to characterize the GEO debris population. NASA s efforts have concentrated on using wide field-of-view telescopes to make complete surveys of the GEO regime to better our statistical understanding of the GEO debris population. These telescopes operate in a staring mode, and only make limited short-arc measurements of the orbits. This information, while limited, allows the possibility of debiasing the observations and constructing statistical distributions of orbits in inclination and ascending node. Recent work suggests that we may be able to use statistical methods to estimate better orbit parameters despite the limited data. Both of these types of studies estimating statistical orbit distributions, and estimating accurate orbits using limited short-arc data have direct analogues in ongoing studies of near-Earth objects (NEO) such as asteroids and comets. This talk will describe the GEO study methods in use and being developed at NASA, and will discuss how such methods may or may not be applicable for NEO studies as well.

Matney, Mark↗
DOE OSTI2024

Agent-Based Simulation Framework for Multi-Variant Surveillance

Early detection of an emerging VOC (Variant-Of-Concern) is essential for effective preparedness for a disease like COVID-19. The spreading of an emerging VOC not only depends on the disease dynamics of itself but also depends on the state of the circulating variants and the susceptibility of the population. Resources for testing are typically quite limited, and a number of strategies have been considered for deploying them. However, it has been difficult to evaluate the performance of such strategies, especially higher order effects, and inequities, while incorporating constraints on these resources. Here, we develop an agent-based surveillance framework, Networkdetect, to understand the early warning system of an emerging VOC. Our framework allows us to incorporate various population heterogeneities and resource constraints.

Moon, Sifat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000344968809)↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Use of GIS and Remotely Sensed Data in Environmental Public Health Tracking (EPHT): The HELIX-Atlanta Experience

As part of the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN), the National Center for Environmental Health (NCEH) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is leading a project in collaboration with the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA/MSFC) called Health and Environment Linked for Information Exchange (HELIX-Atlanta). HELIX-Atlanta's goal is to examine the feasibility of building an integrated electronic health and environmental data network in five counties of metropolitan Atlanta, GA. Under HELIX-Atlanta, pilot projects are being conducted to develop methods to characterize exposure; link health and environmental data; analyze the relationship between health and environmental factors; and communicate findings. There is evidence in the research literature that asthmatic persons are at increased risk of developing asthma exacerbations with exposure to environmental factors, including PM(sub 2.5). Thus, HELIX-Atlanta is focusing on methods for characterizing population exposure to PM(sub 2.5) for the Atlanta metropolitan area that could be used in ongoing surveillance. NASA/MSFC is working with CDC to combine NASA earth science satellite observations related to air quality and environmental monitoring data to model surface estimates of fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) concentrations in a Geographic Information System (GIS) that can be linked with clinic visits for asthma on the aggregated grid level as well as the individual level at the geographic locations of the patients' residences.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Real-Time UAV Trajectory Prediction for Safety Monitoring in Low-Altitude Airspace

The rising number of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) expected in the next decade will enable a new series of commercial, service, and military operations in low altitude airspace as well as above densely populated areas. These operations may include on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement operations, traffic surveillance and many more. Such unprecedented scenarios create the need for robust, efficient ways to monitor the UAV state in time to guarantee safety and mitigate contingencies throughout the operations. This work proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology that utilizes realtime measurements of an autonomous UAV following a series of way-points. Two different methods, based on sinusoidal acceleration profiles and high-order splines, are utilized to generate the predicted path. The monitoring approach includes dynamic trajectory re-planning in the event of unexpected detour or hovering of the UAV during flight. It can be further extended to different vehicle types, to quantify uncertainty affecting the state variables, e.g., aerodynamic and other environmental effects, and can also be implemented to prognosticate safety-critical metrics which depend on the estimated flight path and required thrust. The proposed framework is implemented on a simplified, scalable UAV modeling and control system traversing 3D trajectories. Results presented include examples of real-time predictions of the UAV trajectories during flight and a critical analysis of the proposed scenarios under uncertainty constraints.

UAV trajectory prognosis↗