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NASA NTRS2004

Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence

Almost every year there is at least one technological disaster that highlights the challenge of managing technological risk. On February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia and her crew were lost during reentry into the atmosphere. In the summer of 2003, there was a blackout that left millions of people in the northeast United States without electricity. Forensic analyses, congressional hearings, investigations by scientific boards and panels, and journalistic and academic research have yielded a wealth of information about the events that led up to each disaster, and questions have arisen. Why were the events that led to the accident not recognized as harbingers? Why were risk-reducing steps not taken? This line of questioning is based on the assumption that signals before an accident can and should be recognized. To examine the validity of this assumption, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) undertook the Accident Precursors Project in February 2003. The project was overseen by a committee of experts from the safety and risk-sciences communities. Rather than examining a single accident or incident, the committee decided to investigate how different organizations anticipate and assess the likelihood of accidents from accident precursors. The project culminated in a workshop held in Washington, D.C., in July 2003. This report includes the papers presented at the workshop, as well as findings and recommendations based on the workshop results and committee discussions. The papers describe precursor strategies in aviation, the chemical industry, health care, nuclear power and security operations. In addition to current practices, they also address some areas for future research.

Phimister, James R.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Formulating Precursors for Coating Metals and Ceramics

A protocol has been devised for formulating low-vapor-pressure precursors for protective and conversion coatings on metallic and ceramic substrates. The ingredients of a precursor to which the protocol applies include additives with phosphate esters, or aryl phosphate esters in solution. Additives can include iron, chromium, and/or other transition metals. Alternative or additional additives can include magnesium compounds to facilitate growth of films on substrates that do not contain magnesium. Formulation of a precursor begins with mixing of the ingredients into a high-vapor-pressure solvent to form a homogeneous solution. Then the solvent is extracted from the solution by evaporation - aided, if necessary, by vacuum and/or slight heating. The solvent is deemed to be completely extracted when the viscosity of the remaining solution closely resembles the viscosity of the phosphate ester or aryl phosphate ester. In addition, satisfactory removal of the solvent can be verified by means of a differential scanning calorimetry essay: the absence of endothermic processes for temperatures below 150 C would indicate that the residual solvent has been eliminated from the solution beyond a detectable dilution level.

Morales, Wilfredo↗

NASA NTRS2010

Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) Model - An Unified Concept for Earthquake Precursors Validation

The paper presents a conception of complex multidisciplinary approach to the problem of clarification the nature of short-term earthquake precursors observed in atmosphere, atmospheric electricity and in ionosphere and magnetosphere. Our approach is based on the most fundamental principles of tectonics giving understanding that earthquake is an ultimate result of relative movement of tectonic plates and blocks of different sizes. Different kind of gases: methane, helium, hydrogen, and carbon dioxide leaking from the crust can serve as carrier gases for radon including underwater seismically active faults. Radon action on atmospheric gases is similar to the cosmic rays effects in upper layers of atmosphere: it is the air ionization and formation by ions the nucleus of water condensation. Condensation of water vapor is accompanied by the latent heat exhalation is the main cause for observing atmospheric thermal anomalies. Formation of large ion clusters changes the conductivity of boundary layer of atmosphere and parameters of the global electric circuit over the active tectonic faults. Variations of atmospheric electricity are the main source of ionospheric anomalies over seismically active areas. Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model can explain most of these events as a synergy between different ground surface, atmosphere and ionosphere processes and anomalous variations which are usually named as short-term earthquake precursors. A newly developed approach of Interdisciplinary Space-Terrestrial Framework (ISTF) can provide also a verification of these precursory processes in seismically active regions. The main outcome of this paper is the unified concept for systematic validation of different types of earthquake precursors united by physical basis in one common theory.

Pulinets, S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Observations of Electromagnetic Whistler Precursors at Supercritical Interplanetary Shocks

We present observations of electromagnetic precursor waves, identified as whistler mode waves, at supercritical interplanetary shocks using the Wind search coil magnetometer. The precursors propagate obliquely with respect to the local magnetic field, shock normal vector, solar wind velocity, and they are not phase standing structures. All are right-hand polarized with respect to the magnetic field (spacecraft frame), and all but one are right-hand polarized with respect to the shock normal vector in the normal incidence frame. They have rest frame frequencies f(sub ci) < f much < f(sub ce) and wave numbers 0.02 approx < k rho (sub ce) approx <. 5.0. Particle distributions show signatures of specularly reflected gyrating ions, which may be a source of free energy for the observed modes. In one event, we simultaneously observe perpendicular ion heating and parallel electron acceleration, consistent with wave heating/acceleration due to these waves. Al though the precursors can have delta B/B(sub o) as large as 2, fluxgate magnetometer measurements show relatively laminar shock transitions in three of the four events.

Wilson, L. B., III↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Influence of Ozone Precursor Emissions from Four World Regions on Tropospheric Composition and Radiative Climate Forcing

Ozone (O3) precursor emissions influence regional and global climate and air quality through changes in tropospheric O3 and oxidants, which also influence methane (CH4) and sulfate aerosols (SO4 (sup 2-)). We examine changes in the tropospheric composition of O3, CH4, SO4 (sup 2-) and global net radiative forcing (RF) for 20% reductions in global CH4 burden and in anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions (NOx, NMVOC, and CO) from four regions (East Asia, Europe and Northern Africa, North America, and South Asia) using the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, assessing uncertainty (mean plus or minus 1 standard deviation) across multiple CTMs. We evaluate steady state O3 responses, including long-term feedbacks via CH4. With a radiative transfer model that includes greenhouse gases and the aerosol direct effect, we find that regional NOx reductions produce global, annually averaged positive net RFs (0.2 plus or minus 0.6 to 1.7 2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg N yr(sup -1), with some variation among models. Negative net RFs result from reductions in global CH4 (-162.6 plus or minus 2 mWm(sup -2) for a change from 1760 to 1408 ppbv CH4) and regional NMVOC (-0.4 plus or minus 0.2 to 0.7 plus or minus 0.2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg C yr(sup -1) and CO emissions (-0.13 plus or minus 0.02 to -0.15 plus or minus 0.02 mWm(sup-2)/Tg CO yr(sup-1). Including the effect of O3 on CO2 uptake by vegetation likely makes these net RFs more negative by -1.9 to- 5.2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg N yr(sup -1), -0.2 to -0.7 mWm(sup -2)/Tg C yr(sup -1), and -0.02 to -0.05 mWm(sup -2)/ Tg CO yr(sup -1). Net RF impacts reflect the distribution of concentration changes, where RF is affected locally by changes in SO4 (sup -2), regionally to hemispherically by O3, and globally by CH4. Global annual average SO4 2 responses to oxidant changes range from 0.4 plus or minus 2.6 to -1.9 plus or minus 1.3 Gg for NOx reductions, 0.1 plus or minus 1.2 to -0.9 plus or minus 0.8 Gg for NMVOC reductions, and -0.09 plus or minus 0.5 to -0.9 plus or minus 0.8 Gg for CO reductions, suggesting additional research is needed. The 100-year global warming potentials (GWP(sub 100)) are calculated for the global CH4 reduction (20.9 plus or minus 3.7 without stratospheric O3 or water vapor, 24.2 plus or minus 4.2 including those components), and for the regional NOx, NMVOC, and CO reductions (18.7 plus or minus 25.9 to 1.9 plus or minus 8.7 for NOx, 4.8 plus or minus 1.7 to 8.3 plus or minus 1.9 for NMVOC, and 1.5 plus or minus 0.4 to 1.7 plus or minus 0.5 for CO). Variation in GWP(sub 100) for NOx, NMVOC, and CO suggests that regionally specific GWPs may be necessary and could support the inclusion of O3 precursors in future policies that address air quality and climate change simultaneously. Both global net RF and GWP100 are more sensitive to NOx and NMVOC reductions from South Asia than the other three regions.

ozone↗

NASA NTRS2016

Analysis of Summer-Time Ozone and Precursor Species in the Southeast United States

Ozone (O3) is a greenhouse gas and toxic pollutant which plays a major role in air quality and atmospheric chemistry. The understanding and ability to model the horizontal and vertical structure of O3 mixing ratios is difficult due to the complex formation/destruction processes and transport pathways that cause large variability of O3. The Environmental Protection Agency has National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O3 set at 75 ppb with future standards proposed to be as low as 65 ppb. These lower values emphasize the need to better understand/simulate the transport processes, emission sources, and chemical processes controlling precursor species (e.g., NOx, VOCs, and CO) which influence O3 mixing ratios. The uncertainty of these controlling variables is particularly large in the southeast United States (US) which is a region impacted by multiple different emission sources of precursor species (anthropogenic and biogenic) and transport processes resulting in complex spatio-temporal O3 patterns. During this work we will evaluate O3 and precursor species in the southeast US applying models, ground-based and airborne in situ data, and lidar observations. In the summer of 2013, the UAH O3 Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) (part of the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet)) measured vertical O3 profiles from the surface up to approximately 12 km. During this period, the lidar observed numerous periods of dynamic temporal and vertical O3 structures. In order to determine the sources/processes impacting these O3 mixing ratios we will apply the CTM GEOS-Chem (v9-02) at a 0.25 deg x 0.3125 deg resolution. Using in situ ground-based (e.g., SEARCH Network, CASTNET), airborne (e.g., NOAA WP-3D - SENEX 2013, DC-8 - SEAC4RS), and TOLNet lidar data we will first evaluate the model to determine the capability of GEOS-Chem to simulate the spatio-temporal variability of O3 in the southeast US. Secondly, we will perform model sensitivity studies in order to quantify which emission sources (e.g., anthropogenic, biogenic, lighting, wildfire) and transport processes (e.g., stratospheric, long-range, local scale) are contributing to these TOLNet-observed dynamic O3 patterns. Results from the evaluation of the model and the study of sources/processes impacting observed O3 mixing ratios will be presented.

Optical Radar↗

NASA NTRS2017

Applications of Anomaly Detection and Precursor Identification in Airspace Operations

As we continue to advance the U.S. National Airspace into the next generation of air traffic, we face challenges in both increase in complexity, as well as, a significant growth in traffic volume. Addressing these challenges, while maintaining the same level of safety is an important application of data mining. Because of these significant shifts in airspace design and usage there is a need to identify current and emergent safety risks along with their potential precursors. In recent years NASA has made advancements in developing scalable methods to address this effort in the Big Data paradigm. Multiple kernel anomaly detection approaches have been employed on both surveillance radar data and flight operational quality assurance data to identify operationally significant safety risks. Additionally, events have been explored with a recently developed precursor identification tool to discover states that reveal an increased probability of a safety event. These tools can be used to discover emerging safety risks that may not be currently monitored, which allows for mitigation tactics to be employed and ultimately make the overall airspace safer. This talk will discuss an overview of these methods and a discussion of the findings.

anomaly detection↗

NASA NTRS1975

Annealing of aromatic polyimide precursors

A study has been made of the thermal behavior of polyimide precursors: an isomeric pair of crystals of the complex formed by p-phenylenediamine with the separated isomers of the di-isopropyl ester of pyromellitic acid. Specimens of this material were isothermally annealed in the temperature range 120 C to 170 C for periods of time up to 1 week. Although this temperature range is well below that customarily used for imidizations, the working hypothesis was that it would be more likely that a polymer embodying at least part of the precursor structure could be formed if the molecular motion was minimized to that actually required for the formation of the imide linkage. The progress of the annealing was followed by: infrared spectroscopy, differential thermal analysis, powder X-ray diffraction, and thermal gravimetric analysis. Single crystal X-ray analysis of the meta monomer yields a structure of chains of alternating acid and base and suggests that this monomer is amenable to polymerization with a minimum of geometrical disruption.

Wakelyn, N. T.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Radiation induced precursor flow field ahead of a Jovian entry body

The change in flow properties ahead of the bow shock of a Jovian entry body, resulting from absorption of radiation from the shock layer, is investigated. Ultraviolet radiation is absorbed by the free stream gases, causing dissociation, ionization, and an increase in enthalpy of flow ahead of the shock wave. As a result of increased fluid enthalpy, the entire flow field in the precursor region is perturbed. The variation in flow properties is determined by employing the small perturbation technique of classical aerodynamics as well as the thin layer approximation for the preheating zone. By employing physically realistic models of radiative transfer, solutions are obtained for velocity, pressure, density, temperature, and enthalpy variations. The results indicate that the precursor flow effects, in general, are greater at higher altitudes. Just ahead of the shock, however, the effects are larger at lower altitudes. Pre-heating of the gas significantly increases the static pressure and temperature ahead of the shock for velocities exceeding 36 km/sec.

Tiwari, S.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Effects of precursor heating on chemical and radiative nonequilibrium viscous flow around a Jovian entry body

The influence of precursor heating on viscous chemical nonequilibrium radiating flow around a Jovian entry body is investigated. Results obtained for a 45 deg hyperboloid blunt body entering the Jupiter's nominal atmosphere at zero angle of attack indicate that the nonequilibrium radiative heating rate is significantly higher than the corresponding equilibrium heating. The precursors heating, in general, increases the radiative and convective heating to the body and this increase is slightly higher for the nonequilibrium conditions.

Tiwari, S. N.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Oxidant and precursor trends in the metropolitan Los Angeles region

This paper describes recent historical trends in oxidant and precursors in the Los Angeles region. Control strategies and basinwide emission trends for nitrogen oxides and reactive hydrocarbons are documented year by year from 1965 to 1974. Trends in the geographic distribution of emissions are illustrated by computing net percentage emission changes over the decade for individual counties. The changes in emissions are compared with changes in ambient precursor concentrations and oxidant concentrations. We find that many of the changes in monitored air quality can be explained by trends in both total emissions and the spatial distribution of emissions.

Trijonis, J.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Effects of precursor heating on chemical and radiation nonequilibrium viscous flow around a Jovian entry body

The influence of precursor heating on viscous chemical nonequilibrium radiating flow around a Jovian entry body is investigated. Results obtained for a 45-degree hyperboloid blunt body entering Jupiter's nominal atmosphere at zero angle of attack indicate that the nonequilibrium radiative heating rate is significantly higher than the corresponding equilibrium heating. The precursor heating, in general, increases the radiative and convective heating to the body, and this increase is slightly higher for the nonequilibrium conditions.

Tiwari, S. N.↗

NASA NTRS1978

IPS activity observed as a precursor of solar induced terrestrial activity

A radio telescope designed to exploit the interplanetary scintillation (IPS) technique and locate, map, and track solar wind disturbances which result in geomagnetic disturbances, thereby providing a forecast capability, is described. Preliminary results from operation of the telescope include: (1) evidence for a precursor signal in the IPS activity with a 1-2 day lead time with respect to density enhancements which frequently give rise to geomagnetic activity; (2) detection of a spectral broadening signature which also serves as a precursor of geomagnetic activity; (3) out-of-the-ecliptic plasma density enhancements which were not detected by near-Earth, ecliptic plane spacecraft; (4) detection of 12 corotating density enhancements;(5) detection of over 80 sources which give detectable scintillation of which 45 have been used for detailed synoptic analysis and 9 for spectral analysis; and (6) measurement of 0-lag coefficient of 0.56 between density and IPS activity enhancements.

Cronyn, W. M.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Thermogravimetric analysis of silicon carbide-silicon nitride polycarbosilazane precursor during pyrolysis from ambient to 1000 C

Thermogravimetric analysis data are presented on the unmeltable polycarbosilazane precursor of silicon carbide-silicon nitride fibers, over the room temperature-1000 C range in a nitrogen atmosphere, in order to establish the weight loss at various temperatures during the precursor's pyrolysis to the fiber material. The fibers obtained by this method are excellent candidates for use in applications where the oxidation of carbon fibers (above 400 C) renders them unsuitable.

Ledbetter, F. E., III↗

NASA NTRS1985

Whistler damping at oblique propagation - Laminar shock precursors

This paper addresses the collisionless damping of whistlers observed as precursors standing upstream of oblique, low-Mach number terrestrial bow shocks. The linear theory of electromagnetic waves in a homogeneous Vlasov plasma with Maxwellian distribution functions and a magnetic field is considered. Numerical solutions of the full dispersion equation are presented for whistlers propagating at an arbitrary angle with respect to the magnetic field. It is demonstrated that electron Landau damping attenuates oblique whistlers and that the parameter which determines this damping is beta-e. In a well-defined range of parameters, this theory provides damping lengths which are the same order of magnitude as those observed. Thus electron Landau damping is a plausible process in the dissipation of upstream whistlers. Nonlinear plasma processes which may contribute to precursor damping are also discussed, and criteria for distinguishing among these are described.

Gary, S. P.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Continuous Fiberization of Silicon-Carbide-Nitride Precursor Resin

The objective of this project is to design and build a laboratory scale extruder and with it to fiberize 5000 continuous feet of silicon-carbide-nitride precursor resin. Subsequently the objective is extended to include the cross-linking and pyrolysis of approximately 100 feet of the resin fiber. The extruder is designed to accommodate approximately 1 cubic centimeter samples at accurately controllable rates corresponding to take-up from a single orifice of a 25 micron fiber at speeds in the 1000 feet/minute region. Positive feed delivery is achieved with a cylinder and piston driven by a geared down electric motor. Gear reduction is achieved primarily with off-the-shelf parts. Over 5000 feet of fiber, 20 to 30 micron diameter, are spun from precursor resin samples. The formation of continuous silicon carbide/silicon nitride fiber appears to be feasible.

Dunn, S. A.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Development of a continuous spinning process for producing silicon carbide - silicon nitride precursor fibers

An apparatus was designed for the continuous production of silicon carbide - silicon nitride precursor fibers. The precursor polymer can be fiberized, crosslined and pyrolyzed. The product is a metallic black fiber with the composition of the type C sub x Si sub y n sub z. Little, other than the tensile strength and modulus of elasticity, is known of the physical properties.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1985

Chondrules in the Qingzhen type-3 enstatite chondrite Possible precursor components and comparison to ordinary chondrite chondrules

The mineral composition of chondrules from a fragment of Qingzhen (EH3) fall was analyzed by neutron activation method. Unlike the ordinary chondrite (OC) chondrules (Gooding and Keil, 1981), the Qingzhen radial pyroxene (RP) and porphyritic pyroxene (PP) chondrules have similar bulk compositions. Porphyritic olivine-pyroxene (POP) chondrules are richer than PP and RP chondrules in refractory lithophiles and siderophiles. Elements in each of the following sets intercorrelate significantly: (1) Fe-Co-Ni-Ir-Au, probably derived from a metal component; (2) Ca-Eu-Se, which suggests an oldhamite-rich precursor; (3) Al-Sc-Hf, occurring in high concentrations in POP chondrules, this set suggesting the existence of a refractory lithophile-rich and olivine-rich component; (4) Na REE; and (5) Cl-Br. Sets (2) and (4) were not precursors of OC. The interelement ratios of refractory lithophiles such as Ca, Al, Ti, Sc, and REE are similar to CI ratios, suggesting that they originated in the earliest phases as silicates, which were sulfurized before chondrule formation.

Grossman, J. N.↗