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In the version of this article initially published, Figs. 1–3, Table 1 and the Supplementary Information presented more models than were present in the accepted version of the article, and which were not discussed in the text. The Supplementary Information has been revised and the figures and table are now updated in the HTML and PDF versions of the article.
With increased industry interest in extending reactor operating cycles, the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has been investigating the behavior of high-burnup fuel during design basis accidents such as the large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) with consideration for risk of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). As part of that activity, the NEAMS subchannel thermal/ hydraulics (T/H) code, CTF, is being used for modeling of LBLOCA and to determine the impact of subchannel resolution on results. Although CTF includes a wide range of models for LBLOCA conditions, the code has not been used for this application while maintained at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) until now. Therefore, here, in this work, a preliminary assessment of several of these models was performed using openly available reflood experimental data from the Flooding Experiments in Blocked Arrays (FEBA) tests. One coarse mesh and one fine mesh model were set up in CTF for high and low flooding rate tests performed in the unblocked FEBA facility. A coarse TRACE model was set up to be as consistent as possible with the coarse CTF model to allow for code-to-code benchmarking. The assessment shows a tendency of the codes to over-predict peak cladding temperature (PCT) near the top of the bundle and to quench early. Advanced spacer grid models were shown to improve upper bundle predictions in CTF. The resolved CTF model over-predicted PCT by a larger degree in the center channels in the low-flooding rate test, and it is believed that the radiative heat transfer model, which was not used in this study, may be needed to correct this over-prediction. Finally, this work demonstrates the importance of the droplet model in determining quench time and vapor temperature and PCT prediction, which necessitates a more in-depth validation of these models in the future.
OpenPronghorn is an open-source, MOOSE-based thermal-hydraulics simulation tool used for advanced reactor analysis. As an open-source code, it offers a transparent framework for validating governing equations, assumptions, and numerical methods against established benchmarks. This study evaluates OpenPronghorn's RANS turbulence model against the ERCOFTAC Case 81 periodic hill benchmark, a standard test case for separated turbulent flow featuring curved-wall separation, recirculation, shear-layer development, and reattachment. Streamwise velocity profiles predicted by OpenPronghorn were compared to reference LES data at multiple x/h locations. Results show that OpenPronghorn captures the overall trend of the velocity profiles, but the largest discrepancies occur in the separated-flow region, where turbulence is highly anisotropic and strongly affected by adverse pressure gradients and wall curvature—conditions that are inherently difficult for standard RANS models to resolve. Future work will test alternative k-e model variants and correction terms to improve prediction accuracy in this region.
This report summarizes the work carried out with support of the United States Department of Energy under Award DE-SC0019441. The theme of this project was to develop and apply methods that allowed for the acceleration of atomistic calculations, particularly in challenging areas such as multiphase systems, electrified interfaces, uncertainty estimation, and applications requiring chemical accuracy, which tend to be applications where simulation time is severely bottlenecked by the computational time requirements. Much of the focus was on the application of emerging machine-learning methodologies, although a wide range of methodologies were employed. This report has two major sections. The first focuses on the methodological advances themselves. Within this part, we report a number of major advances, a few examples of which are described here. We report the first machine-learning scheme for the acceleration of electronically grand-canonical calculations (that is, those applicable to electrochemistry). We report new methods of performing transfer learning, in which physics-based priors can be used to provide predictions, often with uncertainty estimates, of images well outside of training sets; we also offer ways to fine-tune these transfer-learning models. We provide a new systematic means to generate and apply minimal training data sets to very large (10,000’s of atoms) systems, with only small training sets appropriate for electronic structure. We developed new methodologies to integrate surface vibrations into surface adsorption calculations. We made advances to the applicability of diffusion Monte Carlo methods to allow (learned) force prediction, finite-size error correction, and force-free means of searching for transition states. We integrated machine-learned atomistic predictions into mechanism generation codes. Additionally, we released new software including AmpTorch, a modernized version of our original atomistic machine-learning code Amp. The second part of this report focuses on the scientific applications that accompanied, and were often enabled by, the methodological advances described earlier. A few examples follow, but full details are in the individual chapters of the report. For example, we developed a general theory of phonon-induced friction on molecular adsorbates. We showed fundamentally how solvent influences the adsorption and desorption process and how it differs from the processes typically involved at the solid–gas interface, making aqueous-phase and electrocatalysis different from traditional thermocatalysis. We examined how metal–insulator and magnetic transitions can be probed, and accelerated exciton dynamics via Frenkel Hamiltonian parameters. We showed that the nearsighted force-training approach, developed within this project, can predict both the stability and reactivity of large nanoparticles, and can also lead to insights on catalyst coverage on binding energies and entropies. These applied studies, which generally integrated with our method development, allowed us to push forward the theoretical understanding of several reaction classes.
The added mass force resulting from the acceleration of a body in a fluid is of fundamental and practical interest in dispersed multiphase flows. Euler–Lagrange (EL) and Euler–Euler (EE) simulations require closure terms for the added mass force in order to accurately couple the conserved variables between phases. Presently, a more thorough understanding of the added mass force in a multi-particle system is developed based on potential flow resulting in a resistance matrix formulation analogous to Stokesian dynamics. This formulation is then used to generate a dataset of added mass resistance matrices for large systems of randomly generated particles. This methodology is used to create a volume fraction corrected binary model for predicting the added mass force in large systems as well as generate statistics of the added mass force in such systems. This work provides clarification to the theory of the added mass force for particle clouds, and modelling options that may be implemented in existing EL and EE codes.
Microkinetic models for catalytic systems require estimation of many thermodynamic and kinetic parameters that can be calculated for isolated species and transition states using ab initio methods. However, the presence of nearby coadsorbates on the surface can dramatically alter these thermodynamic and kinetic parameters causing them to be dependent on species coverage fractions. As there are combinatorially many coadsorbed configurations on the surface, computing the coverage dependence of these parameters is far less straightforward. We present a framework for generating and applying machine learning models to predict coverage-dependent parameters for microkinetic models. Our toolkit enables automatic calculation and evaluation of coadsorbed configurations allowing us to sample 2,000 coadsorbed adsorbates and transition states (TSs) for a diverse set of 9 reactions on Cu(111), a challenging surface, with four possible coadsorbates. This dataset was then used to train subgraph isomorphic decision trees (SIDTs) to predict the stability and association energy of configurations. We were able to achieve mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 0.106 eV on adsorbates, 0.172 eV on TSs, and due to natural error cancellation in SIDTs for relative properties, 0.130 eV on reaction energies and 0.180 eV on activation barriers. In conclusion, we describe how to use these models to predict coverage-dependent corrections for adsorbates and TSs and demonstrate on H*, HO*, and O* comparing the generated SIDT model with an iteratively refined version.
Abstract There are many challenges of commissioning a hydrogen combustor into future gas turbine engines; especially regarding achieving emissions goals. Previously, Escudero et al. and Tran et al. conducted a study to adapt the liquid fuel Lean Direct Injection (LDI) concept from Jet-A to gaseous natural gas-hydrogen blends and pure hydrogen [1], [2]. Experimental data was collected at atmospheric conditions using a Box Behnken design of experiments. The design of experiments suggested that biasing the air split in favor of the inner air circuit and increasing the swirl strength of this inner air passage resulted in improved NOx emissions, while the inverse was true for stability, which was quantified by studying the lean blowoff point (LBO) [1], [2]. The trends revealed by the original experiment [1], [2] provided a design direction for further iterations of the experimental hardware. The study presented herein describes the further investigation of such LDI injectors through experimental methods and computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations at atmospheric conditions, which were used to identify potential flow behaviors driving enhanced emissions performance. Further evaluation of select injectors from both studies was then conducted at elevated pressures up to 6 atmospheres. The results from both experiments are presented in this study, which include flame observations, emissions measurements, and operational challenges. NOx emissions results are reported on a volume basis in ppmvd corrected to 15% O2 and corrected for fuel. A predictive model for relating NOx emissions to test conditions at atmospheric conditions show high significance to adiabatic flame temperature while little to no significance to fuel composition for the best performing configurations. The results illustrate the connection between atmospheric testing and testing elevated pressures. The design direction indicated by the initial tests and CFD results in promising configurations for implementation into a Multi-point LDI array.
We present a new framing of the seismic location problem using principles drawn from differential geometry. Our interpretation relies upon the common assumption that travel times observed across a network are continuous, differentiable functions of source location. In consequence, travel‐time functions constitute a differentiable map between the source region and a Riemannian manifold. The manifold is said to be the image of the source region embedded in a generally high‐dimension travel‐time vector space. A cluster of events in the source region has an image of discrete points on the manifold, that, except in the simplest cases, cannot be viewed directly. However, it is possible to project the image of a cluster into a tangent space of the manifold for direct visualization. The projection operator can be computed directly from the data without a velocity model, but produces a distorted rendering of the cluster geometry. With a model we can predict the distortions and correct them to estimate cluster geometry. We develop these points with the simplest possible example, one for which direct visualization of the manifold is possible, using the example as an introduction to the relevant concepts from differential geometry in a familiar setting. The tangent space, a local linearization of the manifold, plays a key role. We develop a metric to estimate the limits of linearization, that is, to determine when the curvature of the manifold invalidates the linear assumption. We also examine the interplay of model error, inadequate network geometry, and pick error. We then generalize our results from the simple case to the general case of 3D source regions observed by general networks. Although we do suggest a new “project and correct” method for location, we do not develop it into a practical algorithm. In conclusion, our intention rather is to highlight new analytical methods grounded in differential geometry.
Climate models often exhibit biases in their precipitation predictions, particularly underestimating high-intensity events and overestimating low precipitation. Deep learning approaches offer promising solutions, but their epistemic uncertainty associated with a deep learning–based bias correction method has not previously been quantified for reliable downstream climate impact studies. While methods for capturing the epistemic uncertainty in deep learning frameworks exist, there is currently no consensus on the best method. In this work, we compare three uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods—Deep Ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), and Flipout—by assessing the reliability of their uncertainty estimates using standard measures such as sharpness and calibration. These UQ methods are applied to an existing deep learning precipitation bias correction model known as UFNet: a coupled U-Net and fully connected neural network. The methods utilized to assess the models’ uncertainties are 1) calibration, which ensures that the expected probabilities of the model align with reality and 2) sharpness, which is a measure of the precision of the model’s probabilistic predictions. Of the three UQ methods evaluated, the DEns and MCD methods demonstrated the best-calibrated performance (expected calibration error of 0.36 and 0.35, respectively), compared to Flipout (0.58). In contrast, Flipout had the sharpest predictions and the highest metric performance in bias correcting precipitation—especially for higher-order moments such as kurtosis with a spatial correlation of 72% compared to 32% and 55% spatial correlation for DEns and MCD, respectively. Of the three UQ methods, MCD was found to be the most suitable method for UQ purposes based on its calibration, sharpness, and computational requirements.
Describing flow resistance using the physical properties of an underlying surface is a recalcitrant problem in overland flow models. If discharge measurements are available, an equivalent roughness (e.g., Manning’s n) can be calibrated to represent the effects of surface properties within the domain with a single numerical value. Alternatively, the flow resistance can be estimated from discharge and velocity measured at a point, typically a runoff plot outlet. However, such experimental estimates are often inconsistent with the equivalent roughness determined from calibration to discharge, even if both derive from the same dataset. For example, if Manning’s equation is used to parameterize flow resistance, the Manning’s n obtained by calibrating a model to discharge differs from the value of n calculated from measured flow and velocity at the hillslope outlet. Here, this discrepancy is resolved by deriving a correction factor relating experimentally-determined flow resistance to the equivalent roughness. The derived correction factor is tested for four commonly-used resistance formulations using 129 rainfall simulator experiments. The correction factor is necessary to reproduce measured velocities, and yields minor improvements in discharge prediction. Plain Language Summary: Accurate runoff prediction is needed for land and water management in dryland regions, where sporadic and limited rainfall necessitate efficient water use and drought mitigation strategies. The skill of runoff models is known to be hindered by out ability to estimate flow resistance, which is the quantity that describes how energy is lost from flowing water to the underlying surface. Typically, models represent flow resistance with an equivalent roughness, e.g., Manning’s n, that is adjusted until the model can reproduce available discharge observations at watershed scale. However, the flow resistance measured in plot-scale experiments (1–10 m) often exceeds equivalent roughness coefficients by a factor of 10. This means that the direct use of plot-scale experimental data to parameterize runoff models could cause errors in discharge and runoff velocity predictions. Here, we resolve these differences by deriving an analytic correction factor that relates flow resistance to the equivalent roughness required for models to reproduce experimental velocity and discharge data. This correction factor is tested using rainfall simulator data from 129 experiments performed in the US Southwest covering a wide range of precipitation intensities, soil textures and vegetation types. Use of the correction factor substantially improves model prediction of flow velocity, which is needed for reproducing the timing of flood events and the estimation of erosion.
Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection Description This dataset contains input and output data for the manuscript Mongird, K. et al. (under review) titled "Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection". Input data corresponds to gridded spatial siting attributes that are necessary to conduct a random forest machine learning analysis of siting feature importance. Output data includes SHAP feature analysis outputs, and classification report values. For data on power plant siting results referred to in the manuscript, please refer to the CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations data download page. The downloadable data includes values for eight different future scenarios for the Western US. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 Technical Information The dataset includes two sets of data files: (1) CERF gridded siting parameters and (2) Feature analysis outputs and classification reports. All downloadable data is in csv file format. Files with x/y coordinate information use the Albers Equal Area Conic projection (ESRI:102003). 1. CERF Gridded Siting Parameters This directory provides a balanced sample of gridded CERF siting parameters data for eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055, seven different technologies, and eight timesteps. This data serves as input to the feature analysis. It contains the following parameters. region_name - name of region (i.e., state) sited - binary value representing whether the grid cell received a siting of that technology type (1=True) rcp - binary value representing scenario resource concentration pathway (0 = RCP4.5, 1 = RCP8.5) ssp - binary value representing scenario shared socioeconomic pathway (0 = SSP3, 1 = SSP5) climate - binary value representing cooler (0) or hotter (1) GCM forcing tech_name - generation technology name sited_year - year that values correspond to transmission_cost - cost of transmission interconnection pipeline_cost - cost of natural gas pipeline interconnection interconnection_cost - total interconnection cost (sum of transmission cost and gas pipeline cost) lmp - associated locational marginal value ($/MWh) associated with the grid cell, timestep, scenario, and technology xcoord - x-coordinate of location ycoord - y-coordinate of location 2a. Feature Analysis Output The dataset includes the feature analysis shap output for locational marginal price and interconnection cost. It contains the following parameters. technology - generator technology name scenario - name of scenario feature - name of feature, either locational_marginal_price or interconnection_cost value - the mean of absolute value of SHAP values for given feature 2b. Feature Analysis Classification Report This download includes the classification report associated with each random forest model. The dataset contains the following parameters. technology - generation technology name scenario - name of scenario test - one of precision (the proportion of predicted positives that are actually correct), recall (the proportion of actual positives that were correctly identified), f1-score (the harmonic mean of precision and recall) 0.0 - value of test for classification of 0 (grid cell not chosen for siting) 1.0 - value of test for classification of 1 (grid cell chosen for siting) accuracy - accuracy of model (i.e., fraction of all predictions that were right) macro avg - Simple average of test values for all classes weighted avg - Weighted average of test values for all classes, weighted based on Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830
A new self-adaptive reconstruction method based on local atomic structure at any given molecular dynamics (MD) step has been developed in this article. The method can be used in Wigner–Seitz defect analysis approach to correctly and efficiently explore the information of both point defects and complex defect clusters (e.g. dislocation loops and voids) formed after a displacement cascade where the cascade interacts with grain boundaries and/or dislocations. The algorithm and validation are provided in detail. Results for identification of radiation defects during and after cascades interacting with a dislocation network show that the new method can well recognize all simple and complex defects and defect clusters. Thus, this new method provides a totally new way to explore the density and size of radiation defects at atomic scale after complex MD evolution processes, providing correct information to understand and predict radiation damage in materials through atomic simulations.
The dynamics of Lagrangian particles in turbulence play a crucial role in mixing, transport, and dispersion in complex flows. Their trajectories exhibit highly nontrivial statistical behavior, motivating the development of surrogate models that can reproduce these trajectories without incurring the high computational cost of direct numerical simulations of the full Eulerian field. This task is particularly challenging because reduced-order models typically lack access to the full set of interactions with the underlying turbulent field. Novel data-driven machine learning techniques can be powerful in capturing and reproducing complex statistics of the reduced-order/surrogate dynamics. In this work, we show how one can learn a surrogate dynamical system that is able to evolve a turbulent Lagrangian trajectory in a way that is point-wise accurate for short-time predictions (with respect to Kolmogorov time) and stable and statistically accurate at long times. This approach is based on the Mori–Zwanzig formalism, which prescribes a mathematical decomposition of the full dynamical system into resolved dynamics that depend on the current state and the past history of a reduced set of observables, and the unresolved orthogonal dynamics due to unresolved degrees of freedom of the initial state. We show how by training this reduced order model on a point-wise error metric on short time-prediction, we are able to correctly learn the dynamics of Lagrangian turbulence, such that also the long-time statistical behavior is stably recovered at test time. This opens up a range of applications, for example, for the control of active Lagrangian agents in turbulence.
We investigate a cosmological model in which a fraction of the dark matter is atomic dark matter (ADM). This ADM consists of dark versions of the electron and of the proton, interacting with each other and with dark photons just as their light sector versions do, but interacting with everything else only gravitationally. We find constraints given current cosmic microwave background (CMB) and baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) data, with and without an H 0 prior, and with and without enforcing a big bang nucleosynthesis consistent helium abundance. We find that, at low dark photon temperature, one can have consistency with BAO and CMB data, with a fraction of dark matter that is ADM (f adm ) as large as ~0.1 . Such a large f adm leads to a suppression of density fluctuations today on scales below about 60 Mpc that may be of relevance to the σ 8 tension. Our work motivates calculation of nonlinear corrections to matter power spectrum predictions in the ADM model. Here, we forecast parameter constraints to come from future ground-based CMB surveys, and find that if ADM is indeed the cause of the σ 8 tension, the influence of the ADM, primarily on CMB lensing, will likely be detectable at high significance.
The leading and next-to-leading order QCD predictions for Higgs boson pair production at hadron colliders suffer from a significant mass renormalisation scheme uncertainty related to the choice of the top-quark mass. The functional dependence of the result on the value of the intermediate quark mass can be understood in the high-energy limit using the Method of Regions and the tools of Soft-Collinear Effective Theory. In this work, we study the origin of the sizeable logarithmic mass corrections in the gg → HH amplitudes at leading and next-to-leading power in the limit s, |t|, |u| ≫ ${m}_t^2$ ≫ ${m}_H^2$. We argue that the mass corrections follow a predictable factorised pattern that can be exploited to simplify their computation. We present results for the leading power leading logarithmic corrections, our analysis leads to a significant reduction in the theoretical uncertainty of the double Higgs production amplitudes at scattering energies ≳ 1 TeV due to the top-quark mass scheme.
The PIP-II superconducting linac at Fermilab is designed to deliver multi-megawatt proton beams for neutrino physics and other high-intensity applications. To expedite commissioning and enhance operational reliability, we have developed an EPICS-based data flow framework that seamlessly integrates digital twins (DT) with physical twins (PT). These digital twins comprise high-fidelity beam dynamics models or data-driven surrogate models connected to their physical counterparts through real-time diagnostics and advanced machine-learning algorithms.Central to this framework is Linac_Gen, an accelerated simulation tool that incorporates convolutional neural networks, random forests, and genetic algorithms to provide up to a tenfold speedup in optimizing the accelerator geometry model. An EPICS translator layer ensures interoperability by efficiently mapping lattice parameters across diverse simulation platforms.Our EPICS-based framework supports multiple operational modes—monitoring, passive learning, closed-loop control, and online learning—covering the entire machine lifecycle. By leveraging HPC resources and multi-objective optimization techniques, the digital twin enables adaptive trajectory correction, real-time fault detection, and predictive modeling of beam stability. This comprehensive approach paves the way for robust, high-intensity operation and data-driven accelerator R&D at Fermilab.
Thermal batteries are crucial for supplying power to high-consequence engineering applications such as rockets. Computational simulations have been developed to predict thermal battery behavior, but these simulations often suffer from modeling errors, including model form uncertainty. Addressing this uncertainty can be achieved by quantifying either the model discrepancy in the output or the model form error (MFE) in the governing equation. MFE is particularly valuable as it can be better extrapolated beyond observed outputs, which is essential for predictions involving changes in external system loading, system configuration and geometry, or output quantities. This paper employs a state estimation approach to estimate MFE using experimental data and then utilizes machine learning (ML) to model its relationship with state variables. A nonintrusive technique is used to estimate MFE in a black-box thermal battery heat transfer simulation. The trained machine learning model for MFE is then applied to correct simulation predictions under extrapolated initial conditions and battery configurations. In conclusion, the methodology's performance is evaluated using additional experimental data, demonstrating its effectiveness in improving prediction accuracy.
We study finite-volume (FV) corrections to determinations of 𝑔 𝐴 via lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) using analytic results and numerical analysis. We observe that 𝑆𝑈(2) heavy Baryon chiral perturbation theory does not provide an unambiguous prediction for the sign of the FV correction, which is not surprising when one also considers large-𝑁 𝑐 constraints on the axial couplings. We further show that nonmonotonic FV corrections are naturally allowed when one considers either including explicit Δ-resonance degrees of freedom or one works to higher orders in the chiral expansion. We investigate the potential impact of these FV corrections with a precision study of 𝑔 𝐴 using models of FV corrections that are monotonic and nonmonotonic. Using lattice QCD data that is approximately at the 1% level of precision, we do not see significant evidence of nonmonotonic corrections. Looking forward to the next phase of lattice QCD calculations, we estimate that calculations that are between the 0.1% and 1% level of precision may be sensitive to these FV artifacts. Finally, we present an update of the CalLat prediction of 𝑔 𝐴 in the isospin limit with subpercent precision, 𝑔$^{QCD}_{𝐴}$ = 1.2674(96).